2014 Race to the Bottom: The Marcus Mariota Managerie

[SeoulSoxFan]

Here are the "top" teams to the bottom as of week 10:

1. Raiders: 0-9
2. Jags: 1-9
3. Bucs: 1-8
4. Jets: 2-8
5. Titans: 2-7
6. Snyders: 3-6
7. Rams: 3-6
8. Giants: 3-6
9. Falcons: 3-6
10. Bears: 3-6

Ordered by future schedule (toughest on top) according to FO:

1. Raiders: #1 (9.3%)
2. Jets: #3 (6.0%)
3. Rams: #9 (1.8%)
4. Bucs: #11 (0.8%)
5. Titans: #13 (0.3%)
6. Jags: #18 (-0.9%)
7. Falcons: #26 (-3.1%)
8. Bears: #27 (-3.5%)
9. Giants: #29 (-4.7%)
10. Snyders: #31 (-5.9%)

I do not think the Raiders go for another QB -- Oakland needs to surround Carr with better supporting staff (with arguably the worst group of skill position players in the league right now). My bet is they trade out and get a nice haul from any one of the teams on this list. 
 
Of course, the hope here is that the Jets are left with no other choice than to take Winston and let the fallout play out. 

 

[E5 Yaz]

SI already has a mock draft out.
 
The Patriots pick? A running back
 
http://www.si.com/nfl/2014/11/06/2015-nfl-mock-draft-randy-gregory-marcus-mariota

 

[Super Nomario]

SI already has a mock draft out.
 
The Patriots pick? A running back
 
http://www.si.com/nfl/2014/11/06/2015-nfl-mock-draft-randy-gregory-marcus-mariota

It's funny - if you read the description, they say, "We don't think NE will take a RB, but they could!" Because Belichick plays things so close to the vest, mock drafters usually just assign them whatever first-round talent they couldn't fit anywhere else.

 

[LondonSox]

You can't have him. He's blood sworn to Chip Kelly and the Eagles and will NOT PLAY FOR ANYONE ELSE! Don't draft him!

 

[IdiotKicker]

SI already has a mock draft out.
 
The Patriots pick? A running back
 
http://www.si.com/nfl/2014/11/06/2015-nfl-mock-draft-randy-gregory-marcus-mariota

 
Interesting to see former Red Sox draftee and owner of perhaps the single-worst rookie ball line ever Shaq Thompson going number 8 to Chicago in this.  Just how bad was Thompson's line?
 
http://www.soxprospects.com/players/thompson-shaq.htm

 

[Kliq]

If I'm a GM, I'm going to find it really hard to pass on Winston. Yes, his off-field stuff is troubling and due to recent events, that is going to play a bigger role than ever in evalulating talent, but I have no doubt he has the most star potential out of anyone in this draft. He reminds me a ton of Andrew Luck.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

If I'm a GM, I'm going to find it really hard to pass on Winston. Yes, his off-field stuff is troubling and due to recent events, that is going to play a bigger role than ever in evalulating talent, but I have no doubt he has the most star potential out of anyone in this draft. He reminds me a ton of Andrew Luck.

If you were an NFL gm you would put your job on the line for that guy? It's easy to say on a message board but how much more toxic can be get?

 

[IdiotKicker]

If I'm a GM, I'm going to find it really hard to pass on Winston. Yes, his off-field stuff is troubling and due to recent events, that is going to play a bigger role than ever in evalulating talent, but I have no doubt he has the most star potential out of anyone in this draft. He reminds me a ton of Andrew Luck.

 
Just curious, in what ways does he remind you of Andrew Luck?  Luck had a higher completion percentage, lower INT percentage, and is a much better threat when running the ball.  The only place where Winston really has a slight edge is YPA, and that may just be a virtue of playing in a weak ACC for two years.  Winston's stats profile much better than someone like Ryan Leaf, so I don't think he's going to be a straight-out bust, but Luck was statistically superior to Winston in just about every facet of the game.

 

[Kliq]

If you were an NFL gm you would put your job on the line for that guy? It's easy to say on a message board but how much more toxic can be get?

 
What is the hardest position to fill on the football field? The Franchise Quarterback. And what is the most important player on any teams roster? The Franchise Quarterback. Winston is one, and that makes him more of a prized commoditiy. A troubled RB, or DB, sure pass on him, but not a QB with the skills and the on-field results of Winston. He isn't even like Manziel, who had a lot of question marks on whether his game would translate to the NFL, Winston, as a football player, is the best QB prospect since Luck.
 
Does he have some off-field question marks? 100%. But when you consider what he can do for a franchise, I don't know if you are the Jets or even Oakland, how you could pass on him. Hand-cuff him to a veteran O-lineman for all I care, sign Tebow and make him Winston's life coach, do whatever.

 

[Infield Infidel]

Winston reminds me more a young Ben Roethlisberger. Big guy, big arm, extends plays because he's both tough to take down and surprisingly elusive. Also faster than he looks. He'll have to do something about this INT habit he's developed in the last few games. 
 
It will be ironic if EJ Manuel gets picked in the first round and Jameis Winston doesn't

 

[Kliq]

 
Just curious, in what ways does he remind you of Andrew Luck?  Luck had a higher completion percentage, lower INT percentage, and is a much better threat when running the ball.  The only place where Winston really has a slight edge is YPA, and that may just be a virtue of playing in a weak ACC for two years.  Winston's stats profile much better than someone like Ryan Leaf, so I don't think he's going to be a straight-out bust, but Luck was statistically superior to Winston in just about every facet of the game.

 
Winston and Luck have many similar traits. They have similar builds, and have the right amount of mobility for a modern day NFL QB. Enough to make plays with their feet and keep plays alive, but they still almost always look to pass first and not run and get killed (like RG3). In addition they have proven to be excellent 4th quarter QBs and seem to play better in pressure situations.
 
Statistically Luck holds a slight edge, but it isn't that big when you compare just Luck's first two seasons at Stanford to Winston's career so far. Winston has a higher completion percentage (64% for Luck, 66% for Winston) Luck threw an INT for every 3.75 TDs, while Winston has thrown one for every 2.71, although Winston has already thrown for 57 TDs (and counting) over his first two seasons while Luck only threw 45. Winston has the edge in YPA like you mentioned, and while the ACC isn't known for it's defense, the Pac-12 is a conference filled with spread offenses and teams scoring 50 points on each other.
 
I don't think Winston is better than luck, be he is certainly an excellent prospect.

 

[lostjumper]

I want Winston to the Jets so bad. He's the perfect guy for them. Young, incedibly stupid(stealing $10 worth of crab legs, screaming obscenities in the cafateria), shadowy rape accusations and now talk is swirling about possible point shaving in games.

 

[IdiotKicker]

 
Winston and Luck have many similar traits. They have similar builds, and have the right amount of mobility for a modern day NFL QB. Enough to make plays with their feet and keep plays alive, but they still almost always look to pass first and not run and get killed (like RG3). In addition they have proven to be excellent 4th quarter QBs and seem to play better in pressure situations.
 
Statistically Luck holds a slight edge, but it isn't that big when you compare just Luck's first two seasons at Stanford to Winston's career so far. Winston has a higher completion percentage (64% for Luck, 66% for Winston) Luck threw an INT for every 3.75 TDs, while Winston has thrown one for every 2.71, although Winston has already thrown for 57 TDs (and counting) over his first two seasons while Luck only threw 45. Winston has the edge in YPA like you mentioned, and while the ACC isn't known for it's defense, the Pac-12 is a conference filled with spread offenses and teams scoring 50 points on each other.
 
I don't think Winston is better than luck, be he is certainly an excellent prospect.

Yeah these are fair points. I tend to lean more in II's dirextion and see him more like
Rothlisberger, as I think their overall athleticism is more similar. I think he can be a very solid QB, but I don't think he's an elite talent like Luck.

 

[koufax32]

I hope NY drafts him too. He throws so many passes off of a backpedal it's like he's playing Madden. Talent wise he's phenomenal. Decision making wise he's dubious. Add in the off field ARod level of entitlement, immaturity, and tone deafness and BbtL will be in business for years to come.

 

[DanoooME]

After watching him a few times, Winston reminds me way too much of Geno Smith with the poor decision making.  The only difference is he doesn't regularly shit the bed in the clutch like Geno did in college.
 
It would be appropriate if the Jets drafted him.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

After watching him a few times, Winston reminds me way too much of Geno Smith with the poor decision making.  The only difference is he doesn't regularly shit the bed in the clutch like Geno did in college.
 
It would be appropriate if the Jets drafted him.

 
I don't watch enough college football, but who were the last couple QB's that were known for poor decision making in college, had superior talent, and made a splash in the NFL?
 
I honestly have no idea, but at first glance superior decision making with slightly less skills translates better to the NFL rather than the opposite.

 

[Infield Infidel]

I hope NY drafts him too. He throws so many passes off of a backpedal it's like he's playing Madden. Talent wise he's phenomenal. Decision making wise he's dubious. Add in the off field ARod level of entitlement, immaturity, and tone deafness and BbtL will be in business for years to come.

 
He'd probably cut is INTs in half if he would stop throwing off his back foot so much. Some habits are hard to break though

 

[E5 Yaz]

The Bucs, almost certainly, will take a quarterback and could pick before the Jets. Wouldn't the most Jets-like Jets move be to try to leapfrog Tampa in the draft order ... then pick the wrong guy?

 

[koufax32]

The Bucs, almost certainly, will take a quarterback and could pick before the Jets. Wouldn't the most Jets-like Jets move be to try to leapfrog Tampa in the draft order ... then pick the wrong guy?

As a Patriots fan in Jacksonville this is my dream scenario. Jags get a bunch of extra picks and NY gets Crab Legs.

 

[Time to Mo Vaughn]

 
I don't watch enough college football, but who were the last couple QB's that were known for poor decision making in college, had superior talent, and made a splash in the NFL?
 
I honestly have no idea, but at first glance superior decision making with slightly less skills translates better to the NFL rather than the opposite.

Matthew Stafford and Cam Newton?

 

[Super Nomario]

 
I don't watch enough college football, but who were the last couple QB's that were known for poor decision making in college, had superior talent, and made a splash in the NFL?
 
I honestly have no idea, but at first glance superior decision making with slightly less skills translates better to the NFL rather than the opposite.

The problem is trying to identify college QBs with superior decision-making skills. Read this scouting report on Mark Sanchez: http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/mark-sanchez?id=79858
 

 
Ascending talent whose intangibles for the position are just as impressive as his physical tools. ... Cerebral. ... Reads defenses well and rarely throws into coverage. ... Goes through his progression quickly and takes what the defense gives him. ... Recognizes the blitz very well for a player of his experience and often targets the defenses' weak link when being blitzed. 

There is a massive gulf between being a good decision-maker at the college level and a good one at the NFL level. But I guess that goes to your point about guys who lack decision-making skill at the college level: if Logan Thomas can't figure out ACC defenses, what chance does he have against NFL DCs?

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Winston and Luck have many similar traits. They have similar builds, and have the right amount of mobility for a modern day NFL QB. Enough to make plays with their feet and keep plays alive, but they still almost always look to pass first and not run and get killed (like RG3). In addition they have proven to be excellent 4th quarter QBs and seem to play better in pressure situations.
 
Statistically Luck holds a slight edge, but it isn't that big when you compare just Luck's first two seasons at Stanford to Winston's career so far. Winston has a higher completion percentage (64% for Luck, 66% for Winston) Luck threw an INT for every 3.75 TDs, while Winston has thrown one for every 2.71, although Winston has already thrown for 57 TDs (and counting) over his first two seasons while Luck only threw 45. Winston has the edge in YPA like you mentioned, and while the ACC isn't known for it's defense, the Pac-12 is a conference filled with spread offenses and teams scoring 50 points on each other.
 
I don't think Winston is better than luck, be he is certainly an excellent prospect.

I generally concur with these points. For me, the biggest knock on Winston (other than off-the-field stuff) is that he has a somewhat slow release. But I don't think there's any question that he's a monster prospect and deserves to go very high in the draft, given the importance of the QB position. I also think its not a sure thing whatsoever that Mariota is drafted before Winston. At this point last year, almost everybody (myself included) assumed Bridgewater would be the first QB taken and he was picked at the end of the first round. Winston might not be a Luck-level prospect but neither is Mariota - there are questions (fair or not, but questions nonetheless) about his build and, especially, his ability to transition to a pro-style offense that requires him to make different kinds of reads.