2015 1st Round Pick, Andrew Benintendi, CF, Arkansas

IdiotKicker

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Not that they are similar players, but Benintendi should be on the Ellsbury trajectory through the minors. Spend next year at Salem and Portland, 2017 in Portland and Pawtucket with a chance to get some ABs in the majors in the second half of that year. And hopefully a regular in 2018. That's what you want to see from a top-10 college bat.
 

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Chuck Z said:
Not that they are similar players, but Benintendi should be on the Ellsbury trajectory through the minors. Spend next year at Salem and Portland, 2017 in Portland and Pawtucket with a chance to get some ABs in the majors in the second half of that year. And hopefully a regular in 2018. That's what you want to see from a top-10 college bat.
 
He'll be the same as previous college stars like JBJ and Travis, which means he'll end up in Greenville soon, and then start in Salem next year with Portland mid year if he rakes.
 

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Detts said:
 
He'll be the same as previous college stars like JBJ and Travis, which means he'll end up in Greenville soon, and then start in Salem next year with Portland mid year if he rakes.
Benintendi's more advanced than Bradley (who hit .247 his last year in college) or Travis (who played in cold-weather Indiana in a lesser baseball conference). I don't know how aggressive they'll be, but under the Duquette administration Nomar and Adam Everett jumped from Lowell to AA in their first full professional seasons. I don't believe Theo / Cherington have been that aggressive (excepting Craig Hansen), but it's easy to argue that Benintendi is the most advanced draftee they've had in a long time.
 

JBJ_HOF

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Bradley only had a low batting average because of a wrist injury, I think he was by far more advanced than Benintendi is as a player coming out of college.
 

SouthernBoSox

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JBJ_HOF said:
Bradley only had a low batting average because of a wrist injury, I think he was by far more advanced than Benintendi is as a player coming out of college.
What?  How so? 
 

billy ashley

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Bradley was seen as a potential top 10 pick the year he was drafted. His wrist injury ended that. He was a pretty polished player.
 
That being said, while Benintendi didn't have as long of a track record as Bradley, I think it's safe to say he excelled far more his sophomore season than Bradley ever did. I don't think there's much difference in polish between the two. 
 

SouthernBoSox

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Go look at the mechanics of JBJ's swing as a junior in college and compare it to Benintendi's.  It a huge huge difference. 
 

billy ashley

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I do recall some people being concerned about a hitch in Bradley's set up after he signed. He was still seen as a very polished hitter, though.
 
FWIW- I'm on your side SBS, in that I think it would be a mistake to say Bradley was more polished. He was more of a known quantity prior to be drafted and had followed a more traditional amateur trajectory but Benintendi appears like the type of guy who'll move fast. It's not like he's overly raw, there's not that much projection to him. He was drafted because he looks like a centerfielder who could have an average hit skill and hit 15-20 homers not because you can dream on him becoming a stud. 
 

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billy ashley said:
Bradley was seen as a potential top 10 pick the year he was drafted. His wrist injury ended that. He was a pretty polished player.
OK ... but Benintendi WAS a top 10 pick. Bradley was chosen 40th.
 
billy ashley said:
That being said, while Benintendi didn't have as long of a track record as Bradley, I think it's safe to say he excelled far more his sophomore season than Bradley ever did. I don't think there's much difference in polish between the two.
Benintendi seems much more set up for immediate success given the season he's coming off of versus Bradley's final college campaign. The Red Sox may not be more aggressive with him than they were with Bradley, but it wouldn't surprise me if they were, especially since he's getting a lot more pro ball in this season (already 24 games) than Bradley did the year he was drafted (just 10).
 

TheReal15

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2 HRs today for Andrew.  That makes 7 HRs in his first 30 pro games.  Very exciting.
 
Exciting indeed, along with the plate patience he's showing. He could end up being really special. 
 

Rovin Romine

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Nice to see this.  No wooden bat transition issues.  
 
FWIW, I posted earlier that he was 20.  He's actually 21, with a birthday on July 6.   We seem to have an awesome cluster of 20-21 year olds right now.  
 

burstnbloom

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This kid is going to take some major leaps on the year end prospect lists.  He has 30 walks and 17 SO in his first 169 PA.   To put that in perspective he only has 2 more K's than XBH. 
 

jscola85

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This kid is going to take some major leaps on the year end prospect lists.  He has 30 walks and 17 SO in his first 169 PA.   To put that in perspective he only has 2 more K's than XBH. 
 
That's Ted Williams / Wade Boggs territory.  He also had that kind of display of contact & patience in college, with a career 52/74 K/BB ratio (plus 15 HBPs) in 556 PAs.  Safe to say that bodes well for his plate potential down the line.  Those Mark Kotsay comps are probably a bit stale right now 
 

The Talented Allen Ripley

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BA with a Benintendi update:
 
On the scouting side, Benintendi has shown he has at least average productive power and plus raw power. He’s an above-average runner who plays a solid center field. The real criticism on the scouting size is he doesn’t look the part. Benintendi is short (5-foot-10) and his frame is closer to slight than stout. He’s not as physically imposing as you would expect for someone with his power production.
 
A few scouts have agreed with the idea that Benintendi would likely have made it back to Arkansas for his junior year if he had come up through the ranks in the 1980s—his lack of size would have likely scared off scouts, forcing him to prove it with a second year of standout college production. But in today’s world of analytics and scouting, Benintendi was picked seventh overall.
 
Can he be a Top 50 or Top 100 Prospect this offseason? Absolutely. Benintendi was ranked in the top 10 on the BA 500 coming into the draft and he’s done nothing to disappoint since then. That’s the profile of at least a Top 100 Prospect.
 
The Red Sox have had success drafting short athletes (Dustin Pedroia and Mookie Betts come to mind). Benintendi has a chance to be an above-average hitter, above-average runner and at least solid-average power hitter who plays a premium defensive position. That’s a pretty special combination.
 

nighthob

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I think it's just a matter that everyone assumes that all that power out of a 5'10" 180lb guy has to be a mirage. 
 

nighthob

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Boy, Willie Mays, Mel Ott, Hack Wilson and Jimmy Wynn sure did fool a lot of people.
 
I hope you're not expecting me to argue. Willie Mays and Yaz are my two all time favourite players. Believe you me, I am on the Benintendi bandwagon.
 

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For those of you not following the daily thread, the Drive are in playoff contention and closing out the season with 5 against the first place Sand Gnats. They won it last night after falling back 4-0 in the first on a Benintendi walk off HR.
 
From Speier's email newsletter today:
 
 
The Red Sox’ 2015 first-rounder, 21-year-old centerfielder Andrew Benintendi, has spent 14 games in Greenville since his promotion from short-season Lowell. In that time, he’s managed to separate himself as the most polished member of a young, high-ceiling prospect group that includes Yoan Moncada, Rafael Devers, and Javier Guerra.
“What a player,” one rival evaluator recently gushed after seeing Benintendi for the first time. “Picture [Dustin] Pedroia playing centerfield with more speed. [Benintendi] and Betts hitting 1-2 in the order in 2017 will be the best 1-2 combo in baseball. … Just special … Way more advanced than any kid in Boston’s system.”
Benintendi, of course, should be more polished than his Greenville peers, given that he’s 21 (Moncada is 20, Devers 18, Guerra 19, and Espinoza 17) and played two years of college ball in the SEC. But even as the No. 7 overall pick in the draft, the fashion in which he’s sprinted through his first steps in pro ball commands notice.
On Thursday, he went 2-for-5, clubbing a double to right-center and then turning around a 95 mph fastball for a 382-foot walkoff homer to right in the ninth inning. He now has 11 homers in 50 pro games (along with a .303/.408/.551 line), and 31 in 115 games between college and pro ball this year.
I actually fell asleep the other night wondering where Benintendi will play come 2017. Any thoughts? The outfield is seemingly locked down. He seems to be too short to play 1B. But he's apparently a decent defensive CF, so maybe he's wasted at DH. Do you make DH effectively your fourth outfield position, so that BBBC all play every day?
 

pokey_reese

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cahlton said:
From Speier's email newsletter today:
 
I actually fell asleep the other night wondering where Benintendi will play come 2017. Any thoughts? The outfield is seemingly locked down. He seems to be too short to play 1B. But he's apparently a decent defensive CF, so maybe he's wasted at DH. Do you make DH effectively your fourth outfield position, so that BBBC all play every day?
I think that if two years from now he is notably better than one of Castillo or Bradley (after their sample sizes have gotten large), then Benintendi will take that spot. If he isn't, then we have nothing to worry about.
 

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Yeah, 2017 is far enough away (and optimistic enough that it could end up not being an issue until 2018) that you don't need to worry about it now. Tons of different things can happen. Bradley could return to not being able to hit. Castillo could prove too fragile to be a starter in the outfield. Pedroia's injury issues could force the team to move Mookie back to 2nd. They could fail to develop a bat for DH and use it as a spot to rest and outfielder every night with a 4 man "starting" group all capable of playing in center. Mookie, JBJ or Castillo could be traded. The new CBA could up the lineup to 10 players with 4 outfielders in an effort to further lower run scoring and speed up the game. (No, I'm not serious about that one.)
 
If all four of them are good enough to make this any kind of serious issue and they have enough bats that the DH spot is not open to handle the overflow, it's a good problem to have and they'll use the excess to trade for something they need.
 

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Someone should put a sticky thread at the top of the 'adopt a prospect' forum that says:
 
"Please do not ask and/or worry about where a player will play in the Majors until they actually get there.
 
These things have a way of sorting themselves out".
 
Detts said:
Someone should put a sticky thread at the top of the 'adopt a prospect' forum that says:
 
"Please do not ask and/or worry about where a player will play in the Majors until they actually get there.
 
These things have a way of sorting themselves out".
How silly of me to imagine that a baseball front office would prepare for any and all eventualities. Look forward to your Fangraphs piece!
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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cahlton said:
How silly of me to imagine that a baseball front office would prepare for any and all eventualities. Look forward to your Fangraphs piece!
 
In the context of Benintendi's performance, what does this even mean?
 

billy ashley

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Snodgrass'Muff said:
 
In the context of Benintendi's performance, what does this even mean?
 
 
You're of course right that we can't assume too much about his performance based on the Sally. He's clearly more advanced than those guys.
 
However on crowding...
 
There's actually a pretty legitimate shot that Benintendi and Margot are on the same team at some point next season. I feel like it's pretty safe to assume Benintendi will start the season at least in Selem. There's an outside shot he jumps all the way to AA (along with Moncada, who I think is more likely to leap over Salem).
 
I agree that it's foolish to be overly concerned about where all these guys fit on the mlb roster until they actually get there, but we might see some internal drama over CF in Pawtucket as early as next summer. 
 
I've argued in a number of threads that we're likely going to see a trade clear out a lot of the crowding, but the Red Sox have a ton of legitimate prospects up in the middle right now. Margot seems the mostly likely to be gone in that he:
 
  • Is a damn valuable prospect, probably top 50 in baseball
  • A little redundant given that his skill set is similar to that of Betts and Bradley (great glove, base running and could be a league average hitter, maybe better if your dream)
  • Pretty close to the majors
  • Doesn't come with the complications of some of the other big name prospects (Moncada's bonus. The concern over Dever's body long term. The fact that Espinosa wouldn't be a draft eligible HS, yet in the USA). 
 
Snodgrass'Muff said:
 
In the context of Benintendi's performance, what does this even mean?
1. It means that the front office has projected any number of iterations of the team's lineup for the next X years.
2. Benintendi has begun to make a forceful case to be part of those future plans. If it's premature to ask what position he might play, it may not be for too much longer. People have been talking about Devers as the 3B of the future for a year now, just as they talked about Bogaerts as the SS of the future for at least as long before he was finally called up. The difference here is that there isn't an evident position of need for Benintendi.
3. So where might he play?
 
It seems reasonable to conclude that Dombrowski hasn't based his extremely successful career on the axiom that "These things have a way of sorting themselves out." In business, that kind of smug thinking is a good way to be caught totally unprepared.
 

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cahlton said:
1. It means that the front office has projected any number of iterations of the team's lineup for the next X years.
2. Benintendi has begun to make a forceful case to be part of those future plans. If it's premature to ask what position he might play, it may not be for too much longer. People have been talking about Devers as the 3B of the future for a year now, just as they talked about Bogaerts as the SS of the future for at least as long before he was finally called up. The difference here is that there isn't an evident position of need for Benintendi.
3. So where might he play?
 
It seems reasonable to conclude that Dombrowski hasn't based his extremely successful career on the axiom that "These things have a way of sorting themselves out." In business, that kind of smug thinking is a good way to be caught totally unprepared.
 

Actually, most people here and in the media were plugging Iglesias as the Red Sox' SS of the future and wondering which OF position Bogaerts' bat would allow him to play, since Middlebrooks was locked in at 3B.
 
But, as has been said...these things have a way of working themselves out.
 

Rovin Romine

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cahlton said:
1. It means that the front office has projected any number of iterations of the team's lineup for the next X years.
2. Benintendi has begun to make a forceful case to be part of those future plans. If it's premature to ask what position he might play, it may not be for too much longer. People have been talking about Devers as the 3B of the future for a year now, just as they talked about Bogaerts as the SS of the future for at least as long before he was finally called up. The difference here is that there isn't an evident position of need for Benintendi.
3. So where might he play?
 
It seems reasonable to conclude that Dombrowski hasn't based his extremely successful career on the axiom that "These things have a way of sorting themselves out." In business, that kind of smug thinking is a good way to be caught totally unprepared.
 
These things have a way of sorting themselves out.   Benintendi is an OF prospect with a non-generational bat.  In 2017, he'll either be better than  the 4th OF, or he won't.   If he's better, he'll get played.  If he's blocked, as the Future-Sox are juggling 4 truly excellent OF players, with no other place to transition any of them, he'll be traded or someone else will traded.  
 
Regarding being caught unprepared: alternatives to the above scenario are kind of ridiculous.   As far as transitioning him to a new positions, his value ought to be kept high by letting him do what he does well, instead of jerking him about the diamond in response to currently-unknowable scenarios.   Also, DD shouldn't be savvily looking at a trade partner for Castillo *right now* because some kid is hitting well in A ball.
 

finnVT

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cahlton said:
1. It means that the front office has projected any number of iterations of the team's lineup for the next X years.
2. Benintendi has begun to make a forceful case to be part of those future plans. If it's premature to ask what position he might play, it may not be for too much longer. People have been talking about Devers as the 3B of the future for a year now, just as they talked about Bogaerts as the SS of the future for at least as long before he was finally called up. The difference here is that there isn't an evident position of need for Benintendi.
3. So where might he play?
 
It seems reasonable to conclude that Dombrowski hasn't based his extremely successful career on the axiom that "These things have a way of sorting themselves out." In business, that kind of smug thinking is a good way to be caught totally unprepared.
That's all fine, but planning for all possibilities from the team's point of view basically means, "don't do anything yet".  Your point #2 illustrates this nicely: despite talk about Devers, it didn't stop the team from giving Sandoval a long term contract (we can leave the discussion of whether that was a good move for elsewhere). 
 
I do think it's fun to speculate on the best case scenario, that Benintendi's bat is too good to keep in AAA a few years from now, that JBJ, Betts and Castillo have all continued to make strides from where they are this year, that Pedroia is still healthy and productive at 2b, and that they have a good DH (or that all 4 OFs have proven to be too good defensively to "waste" at DH).  It's basically only if all those things are true that there's any question about where he might play, but that's a lot of ifs.  If you somehow end up with 4 legit OFers, then one probably gets traded, but it's really hard to speculate right now on which one that would be.  And there's no reason to decide now, since all those guys will still be under team control when this becomes an issue.  Pick whichever is the worst fit/has trade value/has performed worse in 2016-17 and see what you can get.  It would be a great problem to have.
 
I'm going to split the difference here: Things have a way of working themselves out, but this should not (cannot!) preclude planning and preparation. There's a way in which the "things have a way..." argument closes off any and all thinking on the subject; it's this that I find really objectionable. Besides, this kind of speculation is highly enjoyable, as finnVT says. That's why I asked my question in the first place.
 

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Detts said:
Someone should put a sticky thread at the top of the 'adopt a prospect' forum that says:
 
"Please do not ask and/or worry about where a player will play in the Majors until they actually get there.
 
These things have a way of sorting themselves out".
Isn't half the fun in following the minor league system day dreaming how these players fit onto the big club?  Hand wringing over it is pretty goofy, kinda like worrying about your taxes after winning the lottery, but talking about it is a great way to pass the time when the current pros are already out of it.
 

cahlton said:
It seems reasonable to conclude that Dombrowski hasn't based his extremely successful career on the axiom that "These things have a way of sorting themselves out." In business, that kind of smug thinking is a good way to be caught totally unprepared.
This goes down the same dubious rationale of drafting for need versus talent.  Something most successful farms avoid doing.  I don't think the Cardinals were questioning the selection of Wacha and Marco Gonzalez because they had Carlos Martinez, Shelby Miller, and the recently signed Alex Reyes already in-house as high ceiling starters for example.
 
Draft on talent, develop talent the best possible way, sort out the pieces at the ML level.  If he's blocked and he's performing either he gets traded or someone else does.
 
This also assumes he's ready by 2017.  More likely he'll be a late 2017 call-up looking for a more significant role in 2018.  At that point Jackie Bradley and Mookie Betts will have each have, in all likelihood, entered their arbitration years.  Castillo will have played out four years of his seven year contract.  One of them will likely have disappointed, as it isn't usual for a club to be able to set three young players into three positions and not see a single one flop.
 
Even if they are all doing well that very fact will prevent the Sox from acquiring a fixture at the 4th OF position, making a role with meaningful at-bats for Benintendi to fill.
 
Outfielders with good bats and nice range are like pitchers with high velocity and good command.  No one ever really feels like they've got enough.
 

pokey_reese

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cahlton said:
1. It means that the front office has projected any number of iterations of the team's lineup for the next X years.
2. Benintendi has begun to make a forceful case to be part of those future plans. If it's premature to ask what position he might play, it may not be for too much longer. People have been talking about Devers as the 3B of the future for a year now, just as they talked about Bogaerts as the SS of the future for at least as long before he was finally called up. The difference here is that there isn't an evident position of need for Benintendi.
3. So where might he play?
 
It seems reasonable to conclude that Dombrowski hasn't based his extremely successful career on the axiom that "These things have a way of sorting themselves out." In business, that kind of smug thinking is a good way to be caught totally unprepared.
 
As to the bolded above, I would say that this is basically not true, at least in the way that you mean it. He was drafted as a polished college hitter in the first ten picks, so his performance in his first few games as a pro in short season and Low-A ball is not surprising, nor has anything changed about how the team viewed him in their future plans based on this performance. They intentionally drafted a very good outfielder, so all he has done so far with regards to their planning is not suffer a career-ending injury. Nothing else he has done in the last few weeks is likely to have changed how they view him, because they already viewed him as very good. He was already in their future plans, it's not like the FO just logged into SOSH and realized that he is having a great season.
 
Also, I would argue that your concerns about the team being caught unprepared doesn't actually make sense in this context. It is bad to be unprepared in terms of a dearth of talent or organizational readiness to fill a particular position on the ML roster, but it is not a negative to be unprepared for the (very rare) eventuality where you have a surplus of great young positional players all trying to fit into your outfield. If Betts/Bradley/Castillo are all still being great and Benintendi looks like he is ready to play in Aug. 2017, you just give him a few weeks of ABs in AAA until the rosters expand. If nothing changes over the next few months, you let him stay in AAA, and you don't start his arb. clock. Teams leave "ready" prospects in the minors all the time, for a million reasons. Like you mention, maybe he is colliding (figuratively) with Margot in the minors, so you move Benintendi to RF, and keep him down for a while to learn the new position, etc.. Being caught unprepared by a lack is bad, but a surplus, not so much.
 
pokey_reese said:
 
As to the bolded above, I would say that this is basically not true, at least in the way that you mean it. He was drafted as a polished college hitter in the first ten picks, so his performance in his first few games as a pro in short season and Low-A ball is not surprising, nor has anything changed about how the team viewed him in their future plans based on this performance. They intentionally drafted a very good outfielder, so all he has done so far with regards to their planning is not suffer a career-ending injury. Nothing else he has done in the last few weeks is likely to have changed how they view him, because they already viewed him as very good. He was already in their future plans, it's not like the FO just logged into SOSH and realized that he is having a great season.
I submit that it would be more accurate to say he has vindicated and possibly surpassed their best hopes for him. There were two concerns about Benintendi, I believe: whether his power would still play with a wooden bat, and whether that power, which he hadn't previously shown as a freshman, was real.
 
 
pokey_reese said:
 
Also, I would argue that your concerns about the team being caught unprepared doesn't actually make sense in this context. It is bad to be unprepared in terms of a dearth of talent or organizational readiness to fill a particular position on the ML roster, but it is not a negative to be unprepared for the (very rare) eventuality where you have a surplus of great young positional players all trying to fit into your outfield. If Betts/Bradley/Castillo are all still being great and Benintendi looks like he is ready to play in Aug. 2017, you just give him a few weeks of ABs in AAA until the rosters expand. If nothing changes over the next few months, you let him stay in AAA, and you don't start his arb. clock. Teams leave "ready" prospects in the minors all the time, for a million reasons. Like you mention, maybe he is colliding (figuratively) with Margot in the minors, so you move Benintendi to RF, and keep him down for a while to learn the new position, etc.. Being caught unprepared by a lack is bad, but a surplus, not so much.
I agree with you, except I'd add that all of this isn't happening in a vacuum. The Red Sox have to play an active role right now in assessing Benintendi and his future--more active than the other poster's "Wake me up when he's in Triple-A" comment would suggest--because prospective trade partners will be asking about him this winter. So in that sense I think the front office will soon be compelled to begin weighing his projections against BBC's actual respective MLB performances.
 

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cahlton said:
I agree with you, except I'd add that all of this isn't happening in a vacuum. The Red Sox have to play an active role right now in assessing Benintendi and his future--more active than the other poster's "Wake me up when he's in Triple-A" comment would suggest--because prospective trade partners will be asking about him this winter. So in that sense I think the front office will soon be compelled to begin weighing his projections against BBC's actual respective MLB performances.
Benintendi can't be traded this offseason, or even at the trade deadline next July.

It really is ok to just let things simmer as-is right now.
 

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KLaw just tabbed him as the best debut from the 2015 draft class:
 
This was a tough call among a handful of position players from this draft, but I'll give the nod to Benintendi, who won the Golden Spikes Award in 2015 at the University of Arkansas, then went .313/.416/.556 in short-season and low-A, turning 21 three days after his pro debut. Benintendi was nowhere in sight on draft boards coming into 2015, as he was a draft-eligible sophomore with no summer wood-bat experience and was coming off a mediocre freshman year marred by injuries. But he's more than just a performance guy; he has above-average speed and the ability to stay in center field.