2015 Draft: Thoughts and Predictions

[BannedbyNYYFans.com]

"Process the Process" with Josh Norris is an interesting take on the draft, with him talking to different folks not so much about individual prospects but about their process.
 
This week it's Steve Palazzolo of PFF, who talks about College Football Focus, a private (read: NFL-teams-only) service that does the same sort of pro charting PFF does but for college. We've gone into the flaws with PFF's grades ad nauseum and there's not reason to revisit that here, but one thing they do (that isn't public, unfortunately) is watch every play and capture all sorts of information about it - who's playing where, who's matched up on whom, what they do, etc. This allows them to build a searchable database of stuff like "all the plays where this G pulls" or "every fly route this WR runs."
 
Some gems:
- They chart La'El Collins with just four pressures allowed all year (three to Vic Beasley). T.J. Clemmings gave up 10-12, which is a lot for someone considered a top tackle.
- Palazzolo (who is very reasonable and responsive on Twitter, especially compared to some of the other PFF guys) acknowledges that they don't have a good sense as to which parts of the PFF grades are predictable or not and they have more work to do there
- Chris Conley of Georgia got good marks for his film (similar to Devin Smith)
- Stephane Anthony graded well by CFF, but Norris doesn't like him
- Byron Jones graded well, albeit in just 300 snaps - targeted 28 times, allowed just 12 catches, 2 INTs, 3 PDs. 26.3 passer rating when opposing QBs targeted him
- Jameis Winston graded right around average. Higher on Mariota

 
I'm pulling for Byron Jones...partially because my twin brother is a Master Chief in the Navy and Jones' brother reports to him.  That should get me free tickets to Santa Clara, right?
 
But seriously, he seems like a great fit.  High character, instinctive, smart defender.  

 

[E5 Yaz]

https://twitter.com/SI_PeterKing/status/592867560640618497
 
 
***
Well, Shane Ray just ruined: a my mock draft. b his chance at the first round.
 
PK keeps things in perspective

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

"Process the Process" with Josh Norris is an interesting take on the draft, with him talking to different folks not so much about individual prospects but about their process.
 
This week it's Steve Palazzolo of PFF, who talks about College Football Focus, a private (read: NFL-teams-only) service that does the same sort of pro charting PFF does but for college. We've gone into the flaws with PFF's grades ad nauseum and there's not reason to revisit that here, but one thing they do (that isn't public, unfortunately) is watch every play and capture all sorts of information about it - who's playing where, who's matched up on whom, what they do, etc. This allows them to build a searchable database of stuff like "all the plays where this G pulls" or "every fly route this WR runs."
 
Some gems:
- They chart La'El Collins with just four pressures allowed all year (three to Vic Beasley). T.J. Clemmings gave up 10-12, which is a lot for someone considered a top tackle.
- Palazzolo (who is very reasonable and responsive on Twitter, especially compared to some of the other PFF guys) acknowledges that they don't have a good sense as to which parts of the PFF grades are predictable or not and they have more work to do there
- Chris Conley of Georgia got good marks for his film (similar to Devin Smith)
- Stephane Anthony graded well by CFF, but Norris doesn't like him
- Byron Jones graded well, albeit in just 300 snaps - targeted 28 times, allowed just 12 catches, 2 INTs, 3 PDs. 26.3 passer rating when opposing QBs targeted him
- Jameis Winston graded right around average. Higher on Mariota

Is 300 snaps at the level of QB competition that Jones saw enough to go off of? I know he had a strong combine, but those stats don't exactly instill a ton of confidence, do they?

 

[Ed Hillel]

Shane Ray just wants to be a Patriot. Can you blame him?

 

[Super Nomario]

Is 300 snaps at the level of QB competition that Jones saw enough to go off of? I know he had a strong combine, but those stats don't exactly instill a ton of confidence, do they?

Probably not. From what I can tell, CB charting stats fluctuate wildly even at the NFL level where there's more parity. It is an extremely good performance - no one PFF charted was better than 29.7, and only one player better than 41.8, so it's probably a good sign even regressed heavily. If Jones hadn't had such a ridiculous Combine it probably wouldn't make anyone blink an eye, but it is a clue that he's not just some Mamula-esque workout wonder.
 
For what it's worth, Jones was there for the BYU, Boise State, and ECU games, which were probably the best competition UConn saw all year.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Shane Ray just wants to be a Patriot. Can you blame him?

 
Guess what, Ed ... you agree with Peter King!
 

Wilder guess. The Patriots have long steered clear of draft-day controversy since the Christian Peter fiasco 19 years ago. (The Nebraska defensive tackle was drafted in the fifth round by the Patriots and summarily cut days later when his history of domestic abuse was discovered.) But there’s no evidence of anything but marijuana experiences in Ray’s past, which may make owner Robert Kraft a little more forgiving—particularly when he hears that a healthy Ray would have been a sure top-10 talent in this draft. The Pats could stop Ray’s decline from being a precipitous fall.

 
http://mmqb.si.com/2015/04/28/peter-king-2015-nfl-mock-draft/

 

[dcmissle]

 
Guess what, Ed ... you agree with Peter King!
 
 
http://mmqb.si.com/2015/04/28/peter-king-2015-nfl-mock-draft/

Not the only one calling for a precipitous fall:

"Shane Rays pot citation changes his stock dramatically. He could drop to the 3rd or 4th round." - @MarkdominikESPN pic.twitter.com/jwB2OypNYV 24m

If Dominik and King are anywhere close to the mark, things will get interesting here late Thursday night.

 

[Ed Hillel]

 
Guess what, Ed ... you agree with Peter King!
 
 
http://mmqb.si.com/2015/04/28/peter-king-2015-nfl-mock-draft/

Yay!

I enjoyed the Pats avoiding draft controversy bit, as well. Other than drafting a serial killer.

 

[dcmissle]

Everyone has an opinion, and I don't know if his is entitled to any particular deference, but Jason LaConfora has 5 can't-miss guys in this draft, and Shane Ray is #3 on that list. Will be interesting to see what happens with him and Gregory.

 

[ShaneTrot]

I would be very surprised if Ray dropped out of the top 20. He can play. I would be thrilled if the Pats got him. He is great inside against guards in obvious passing situations. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xf6HVqZBu_s

 

[tims4wins]

Given that Ray went 29th in the McShay-Kiper mock draft, and 28th in the ESPN NFL Nation mock draft, would a drop to the 3rd round really be all that huge? Historically we have seen plenty of guys projected to be drafted in the late 1st round end up being picked in the 3rd or so. This isn't all that new.

 

[Super Nomario]

Not the only one calling for a precipitous fall:

"Shane Rays pot citation changes his stock dramatically. He could drop to the 3rd or 4th round." - @MarkdominikESPN pic.twitter.com/jwB2OypNYV 24m

If Dominik and King are anywhere close to the mark, things will get interesting here late Thursday night.

Unless there's more to the story than this, I have a hard time seeing it. By reputation this draft has 15-20 "real" first-rounders and Ray is one of them. This might hurt him in some teams' eyes, but others won't care and it only takes one team to draft him. Players aren't drafted where their consensus rank is; they're drafted where the team / teams that like them most rank them. I doubt this news moves the needle on that significantly.

 

[SoxVindaloo]

Yay!

I enjoyed the Pats avoiding draft controversy bit, as well. Other than drafting a serial killer.

Haha! Yea what team was he referring to? Murder 1 Aaron and Dennard say "hey".

 

[dcmissle]

Unless there's more to the story than this, I have a hard time seeing it. By reputation this draft has 15-20 "real" first-rounders and Ray is one of them. This might hurt him in some teams' eyes, but others won't care and it only takes one team to draft him. Players aren't drafted where their consensus rank is; they're drafted where the team / teams that like them most rank them. I doubt this news moves the needle on that significantly.

Tend to agree. I wonder if mere possession lands him in the NFL program.

 

[RedOctober3829]

 

Scott Bischoff ‏@Bischoff_Scott  6m6 minutes ago
Hearing that Rams DT Michael Brockers wants a long-term deal, could get moved. Multiple teams possibly involved, Lions, Cowboys, Texans.
 

 

[RedOctober3829]

Police are seeking to question LSU offensive lineman La'el Collins following the shooting death of a pregnant woman last week, Baton Rouge police Lt. Jonny Dunnam told ESPN.
Brittany Mills, 29, is believed by police to be a former girlfriend of Collins. Police said Collins is not currently a suspect in the shooting, only that they want to talk to him to see if he can assist with the information.
Collins' attorney, Jim Boren, told police his client is in Chicago, getting ready for the NFL draft. But Boren said he has been in constant contact with the lead detective on the case, he spoke with the district attorney today, and he even has retained the services of a private investigative firm to help him prove that Collins was not close to Mills' home when she was murdered.
"We took the investigation seriously," Boren said from his offices Tuesday. "We've tried to rule him out as a suspect. We're going to provide that information to the police, and ultimately (Collins) will sit down and talk to them. But the timing is poor."

https://www.facebook.com/AdamSchefter/posts/948522108533764

 

[RedOctober3829]

Ray Lewis is out of ESPN's draft coverage in order to stay home in Baltimore.  Louis Riddick replaces him.  That's a net upgrade!

 

[E5 Yaz]

"... the timing is poor."
 
Especially for the dead woman

 

[E5 Yaz]

Ray Lewis is out of ESPN's draft coverage in order to stay home in Baltimore.  Louis Riddick replaces him.  That's a net upgrade!

 
Riddick is vastly underused by ESPN. He's really good

 

[RedOctober3829]

 
Riddick is vastly underused by ESPN. He's really good

I really love Riddick's work on ESPN.  He's the best former front office person they employ.

 

[dcmissle]

He's very good. Now I'll flip between NFLN and ESPN.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Who touches La'el Collins after this story? It smells a lot like a Rae Carruth scheme. Wow!

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/draft/2015/04/28/lael-collins-lsu-baton-rouge-murder-police-questioning/26545117/

 

[E5 Yaz]

Who touches La'el Collins after this story? It smells a lot like a Rae Carruth scheme. Wow!

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/draft/2015/04/28/lael-collins-lsu-baton-rouge-murder-police-questioning/26545117/

 
At the moment he's NOT a suspect.

 

[RedOctober3829]

So far I've seen the following players linked to the Patriots at 32
 
--Nelson Agholor
--Eddie Goldman
--Mario Edwards, Jr.
--Marcus Peters
--Kevin Johnson
--AJ Cann
--Devin Smith
 
Which player, if available, would you want to see the Pats draft at 32?

 

[Shelterdog]

Who touches La'el Collins after this story? It smells a lot like a Rae Carruth scheme. Wow!

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/draft/2015/04/28/lael-collins-lsu-baton-rouge-murder-police-questioning/26545117/

No way a jury convicts.

 

[RedOctober3829]

 

SportsCenter ‏@SportsCenter  2m2 minutes ago
Browns offer two 1st-round picks to Titans for No. 2 overall selection, where they would plan to take Marcus Mariota.
 

 

[Ed Hillel]

lol Browns
 
No way that's near enough,but it's just funny that they're out to draft yet another QB.

 

[jsinger121]

They should throw money Manziel in the deal along with some future draft picks.

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

So far I've seen the following players linked to the Patriots at 32
 
--Nelson Agholor
--Eddie Goldman
--Mario Edwards, Jr.
--Marcus Peters
--Kevin Johnson
--AJ Cann
--Devin Smith
 
Which player, if available, would you want to see the Pats draft at 32?

Me, I'd go with Kevin Johnson because I'm so concerned about the defensive backfield.  But if you're looking for the best player, who also happens to fill a position of need, that's probably Eddie Goldman.
 
fwiw, I'd probably add Byron Jones to this list.  Seems like he's been mentioned quite a bit too.

 

[Ed Hillel]

I think this is a trade back year. We'll all wait up until the very last pick and then make a trade with the Titans to move back 2 spots for a 6th rounder.
 
I like Johnson or Jones, but if Ray does slide it would be a tough call.

 

[dcmissle]

lol Browns
 
No way that's near enough,but it's just funny that they're out to draft yet another QB.

If the Browns trade up to get Mariota, hell be the 4th QB theyve taken in the 1st round in the past 9 years.

What a nightmare.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Me, I'd go with Kevin Johnson because I'm so concerned about the defensive backfield.  But if you're looking for the best player, who also happens to fill a position of need, that's probably Eddie Goldman.
 
fwiw, I'd probably add Byron Jones to this list.  Seems like he's been mentioned quite a bit too.

I think Jones is going higher than 32.

 

[E5 Yaz]

If the Browns trade up to get Mariota, hell be the 4th QB theyve taken in the 1st round in the past 9 years.

What a nightmare.

 
True, but it's really only a nightmare if he fails. If he succeeds, he's the end of their long nightmare

 

[dcmissle]

 
True, but it's really only a nightmare if he fails. If he succeeds, he's the end of their long nightmare

That's exactly right. Even Matt Millen hit at the end, and if you hit on a QB you are pretty much good for a dozen years.

 

[E5 Yaz]

PK's 10 Things on Wednesday:
 

 
6. I think the Patriots are in a great spot at 32. So many teams high in the second round want to move up, and the Patriots don’t have to take anyone here. If they could get the 2016 first-round pick of a current bad team, I’d do that deal in a second…
 
7. … I think there’s one exception. New England likes USC wide receiver Nelson Agholor. If I were Bill Belichick, I wouldn’t be getting cute late in the first round, particularly with three picks between 96 and 101. I’d take the guy I’d like. Even if I could get an attractive first-round picks next year for the 32nd pick, I’d still take a receiver like Agholor now if I could. (But I do think he’ll be gone before 32.)

 
http://mmqb.si.com/2015/04/29/lael-collins-nfl-draft-rumors-buzz-mailbag/

 

[JBJ_HOF]

If you pass on an OL, DL, trade down, or 2016 1st for #32 so you can draft Nelson Agholor it is insanity.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

 
Mike Reiss @MikeReiss  ·  1h 1 hour ago

Robert Kraft's view on draft: "A lot of depth in middle (rounds). Don't think there are a lot of exceptional players like some other years."

 
I've heard this in other places too but its interesting to see Kraft come out and say so.  A lot of people seem to think there are only 15-20 players with true first round grades in this class, then a pretty large group of guys who have round 2-4 talent.
 
That could make trading down or trading into next year a more viable option.  On the other hand, if there is a player that the Patriots really, really like yet other teams seem to think that the talent becomes pretty flat after pick 20 or so, it could make it easier to trade up and grab that player.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I'd be shocked if they didn't trade down, trade out, trade up or pick someone

 

[RedOctober3829]

 
I've heard this in other places too but its interesting to see Kraft come out and say so.  A lot of people seem to think there are only 15-20 players with true first round grades in this class, then a pretty large group of guys who have round 2-4 talent.
 
That could make trading down or trading into next year a more viable option.  On the other hand, if there is a player that the Patriots really, really like yet other teams seem to think that the talent becomes pretty flat after pick 20 or so, it could make it easier to trade up and grab that player.

I heard Andrew Brandt say on ESPN Radio this morning that a GM only had 10 players with a first round grade.  If there truly is a glut of players from 20-60 with similar grades then trading back would seem to make sense.

 

[dcmissle]

I heard Andrew Brandt say on ESPN Radio this morning that a GM only had 10 players with a first round grade.  If there truly is a glut of players from 20-60 with similar grades then trading back would seem to make sense.

Trading up or down from 32 could be difficult, period if this is widely shared. Pats won't trade up unless an exceptional value falls, and even then probably only a few places. As for trading down, it would seem to be pure luck, the right player there for the right team.

As for trading out, teams are bad for a reason, but if this draft is only 10 deep in the first round, you'd have to be an idiot to swap out next year's first rounder for the Pats #32.

Most of that stupidity that worked to the Pats' favor cleared up years ago.

 

[soxhop411]

@AdamSchefter: Here we go: Titans have gotten calls from multiple teams inquiring about what it will take to trade for 2nd overall pick, per league source.

 

[Shelterdog]

Trading up or down from 32 could be difficult, period if this is widely shared. Pats won't trade up unless an exceptional value falls, and even then probably only a few places. As for trading down, it would seem to be pure luck, the right player there for the right team.

As for trading out, teams are bad for a reason, but if this draft is only 10 deep in the first round, you'd have to be an idiot to swap out next year's first rounder for the Pats #32.

Most of that stupidity that worked to the Pats' favor cleared up years ago.

 
The stupid always come back when GMs get desperate--otherwise you wouldn't have the Bills giving up so much for Watkins, the Vikings giving up so much for Patterson to the Pats in 2013, etc.

 

[dynomite]

As for trading down, it would seem to be pure luck, the right player there for the right team.

I do think that's the one advantage of picking at the end of the 1st Round in the new system, though.

As the 1st Round draws to a close now, teams that really want a player get nervous about the 20ish hour gap between picks #32 and #33 (between Round 1 and 2), during which every other team in the league could make offers and move up to the top of Round 2 to get someone still on their board.

This happened with the Vikings just last year, who gave the Seahawks picks #40 and #108 (4th round) in order to move up to #32 and take Bridgewater as the night closed.

 

[Seels]

I heard Andrew Brandt say on ESPN Radio this morning that a GM only had 10 players with a first round grade.  If there truly is a glut of players from 20-60 with similar grades then trading back would seem to make sense.

Honestly I'm surprised its that many.

This is the worst draft in years for high end talent at any position that isn't DL RB or QB. I'm not even sure it's great for DL or QB either.
 
I expect the Pats to trade down, though if someone like Williams is there it would be tempting. Trade back to the middle of the 2nd round, pick up another 2nd rounder or next years first, and go from there. 

 

[dcmissle]

I do think that's the one advantage of picking at the end of the 1st Round in the new system, though.

As the 1st Round draws to a close now, teams that really want a player get nervous about the 20ish hour gap between picks #32 and #33 (between Round 1 and 2), during which every other team in the league could make offers and move up to the top of Round 2 to get someone still on their board.

This happened with the Vikings just last year, who gave the Seahawks picks #40 and #108 (4th round) in order to move up to #32 and take Bridgewater as the night closed.

True enough about that pick # 33 being up for grabs overnight. I remember being stunned when the Pats used it on Ras I Dowling rather than flip it.

 

[E5 Yaz]

True enough about that pick # 33 being up for grabs overnight. I remember being stunned when the Pats used it on Ras I Dowling rather than flip it.

 
This is the moment that always has perplexed me. 
 
As for No. 32 this year, if they can get a second 1 for 2016, I'd jump ... unless the exact right fit fell into their lap

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Honestly I'm surprised its that many.
This is the worst draft in years for high end talent at any position that isn't DL RB or QB. I'm not even sure it's great for DL or QB either.
 
I expect the Pats to trade down, though if someone like Williams is there it would be tempting. Trade back to the middle of the 2nd round, pick up another 2nd rounder or next years first, and go from there. 

 
2013 is still hard to beat for worst high end talent but I agree with the overall point.

 

[Granite Sox]

I'd be shocked if they didn't trade down, trade out, trade up or pick someone

 
I am totally on board with this.
 

Trading up or down from 32 ...

Most of that stupidity that worked to the Pats' favor cleared up years ago.

 
I think the rookie wage modifications also helped tamp down some of the mishigas. 
 

I do think that's the one advantage of picking at the end of the 1st Round in the new system, though.

As the 1st Round draws to a close now, teams that really want a player get nervous about the 20ish hour gap between picks #32 and #33 (between Round 1 and 2), during which every other team in the league could make offers and move up to the top of Round 2 to get someone still on their board.

This happened with the Vikings just last year, who gave the Seahawks picks #40 and #108 (4th round) in order to move up to #32 and take Bridgewater as the night closed.

 
I suspect this will be the play (trade down into the 2nd, pick up a later round draft pick).  
 
In addition to Ras-I Dowling, Damon Denson says "hello" as well.

 

[BigJimEd]

I do think that's the one advantage of picking at the end of the 1st Round in the new system, though.

As the 1st Round draws to a close now, teams that really want a player get nervous about the 20ish hour gap between picks #32 and #33 (between Round 1 and 2), during which every other team in the league could make offers and move up to the top of Round 2 to get someone still on their board.

This happened with the Vikings just last year, who gave the Seahawks picks #40 and #108 (4th round) in order to move up to #32 and take Bridgewater as the night closed.

Picking in the first round also means another year under the team's control.

 

[Brand Name]

From an Eagles fan friend who gets this drafting (and March Madness) pretty darn well. Thoughts on his mock 1st round draft?
 

 
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
2. Tennessee Titans – Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
3. Jacksonville Jaguars – Dante Fowler, Edge, Florida
4. Oakland Raiders – Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
5. Atlanta Falcons (projected trade with Washington) – Vic Beasley, Edge, Clemson
6. New York Giants (projected trade with New York Jets) – Leonard Williams, DT, USC
7. Chicago Bears – Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
8. Washington Redskins (from Atlanta) – Bud Dupree, Edge, Kentucky
9. New York Jets (from New York Giants) – Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
10. St. Louis Rams – Brandon Scherff, OL, Iowa
11. Minnesota Vikings – Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
12. Cleveland Browns – Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
13. New Orleans Saints – DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
14. Miami Dolphins – Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
15. San Francisco 49ers – Arik Armstead, DL, Oregon
16. Houston Texans – Breshad Perriman, WR, Central Florida
17. San Diego Chargers – Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
18. Kansas City Chiefs – Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
19. Cleveland Browns (from Buffalo) – Jordan Phillips, DT, Oklahoma
20. Philadelphia Eagles – Damarious Randall, Safety, Arizona State
21. Cincinnati Bengals – D.J. Humphries, OT, Florida
22. Pittsburgh Steelers – Landon Collins, Safety, Alabama
23. Detroit Lions – Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami (FL)
24. Arizona Cardinals – Eric Kendricks, ILB, UCLA
25. Carolina Panthers – T. J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh
26. Baltimore Ravens – Nelson Agholor, WR, USC
27. Dallas Cowboys – Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
28. Denver Broncos – Cameron Erving, OL, Florida State
29. Indianapolis Colts – Jake Fisher, OT, Oregon
30. Green Bay Packers – Denzel Perryman, ILB, Miami (FL)
31. New Orleans Saints (from Seattle) – Shane Ray, Edge, Missouri
32. New England Patriots – Eric Rowe, CB, Utah