2015 Free Agency: The Waiver Wire Watch

ivanvamp

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jsinger121 said:
There is literally no good corners left. Pats prolly will head to the trade market and the draft.
Honestly I think we better prepare ourselves for a secondary that looks a lot more like the 2011-12-13 versions.
 

Stitch01

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ivanvamp said:
Honestly I think we better prepare ourselves for a secondary that looks a lot more like the 2011-12-13 versions.
Yes, its obvious from the way they are building the team this offseason that secondary is not going to be the strength that it was last year,  More than one way to skin a cat, and I dont think the existing secondary is the catastrophe that some others think it is, but yes this secondary will not play like the '14 secondary.
 

TheoShmeo

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Stitch01 said:
Yes, its obvious from the way they are building the team this offseason that secondary is not going to be the strength that it was last year,  More than one way to skin a cat, and I dont think the existing secondary is the catastrophe that some others think it is, but yes this secondary will not play like the '14 secondary.
We're still a long way from knowing what the secondary will look like when the season opens.  Between trades, veteran cuts and draft picks, it's not at all a certainty that the secondary will be Butler, Ryan, Arrington and Dennard.  But damn, with free agency coming and seemingly going regarding CBs, this feels for now like when the Pats lost Branch and Givens from their WR corps and were left to fill in with seeds and stems. 
 

Shelterdog

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TheoShmeo said:
We're still a long way from knowing what the secondary will look like when the season opens.  Between trades, veteran cuts and draft picks, it's not at all a certainty that the secondary will be Butler, Ryan, Arrington and Dennard.  But damn, with free agency coming and seemingly going regarding CBs, this feels for now like when the Pats lost Branch and Givens from their WR corps and were left to fill in with seeds and stems. 
 
I realize that a lot of fans don't like Arringon, Ryan or Dennard much but those three are athletes in what should be their primes who have all played quite a bit for the team (56 regular season starts for Arrington, 20 for Dennard, 13 for Ryan).  They're a far cry from a Roman Gabriel. 

Dennard is the big question mark.  Was he benched because he was somewhat injured and not useful as a backup corner who can't (unlike Butler) play special teams or was he benched because he's in a permanent doghouse? If the team had some confidence that he'd be as good in 2015 as he was in 2013 I'd fell an awful lot better.
 

Stitch01

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TheoShmeo said:
We're still a long way from knowing what the secondary will look like when the season opens.  Between trades, veteran cuts and draft picks, it's not at all a certainty that the secondary will be Butler, Ryan, Arrington and Dennard.  But damn, with free agency coming and seemingly going regarding CBs, this feels for now like when the Pats lost Branch and Givens from their WR corps and were left to fill in with seeds and stems. 
See, that's where I disagree somewhat.  I think this is a materially better position group even as is.  There's a Pro Bowl player in his prime in McCourty, a guy who has had a few years of success in the system in the right matchups in Arrington, three corners on their rookie deals who have shown flashes of success/promise (Ryan/Dennard with a role that plays to his strengths more available/Butler) , a vet who did a solid job last year in Chung (although I think his effectiveness is hurt with the personnel changes) as well as Harmon and, to a lesser extent Wilson.  There are pieces there to work with.
 
Now, I think they'll add there in the draft and add at least one low cost veteran at some point like they did with Chung last year but, to me, that's even today not a season crippling position group.
 

Super Nomario

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Shelterdog said:
 
I realize that a lot of fans don't like Arringon, Ryan or Dennard much but those three are athletes in what should be their primes who have all played quite a bit for the team (56 regular season starts for Arrington, 20 for Dennard, 13 for Ryan).  They're a far cry from a Roman Gabriel. 
Dennard is the big question mark.  Was he benched because he was somewhat injured and not useful as a backup corner who can't (unlike Butler) play special teams or was he benched because he's in a permanent doghouse? If the team had some confidence that he'd be as good in 2015 as he was in 2013 I'd fell an awful lot better.
Obviously I don't have any insight into how Belichick / Patricia / Boyer feel about Dennard, but we can look at his usage pattern last year:
 
Week 1: 52 / 76 snaps, starting opposite Revis (Browner on suspension)
Weeks 2 - 4: inactive (late scratch Week 2 with shoulder issue, missed next two games)
Weeks 5 - 6: 55/55, 66/69, starting opposite Revis (Browner inactive)
Week 7: 50/87, slot corner (24/50 snaps) with Revis / Browner as top 2 (Arrington just 1 snap)
Week 8-11 (3 games + bye): healthy scratch, Butler plays 15, 37, 0
Week 12-13: 8/82, 11/74: 5th CB, Butler healthy scratch
Weeks 14-16: healthy scratch, Butler plays 0, 22, 0
Week 17: goes on IR
 
So with Browner unavailable (Weeks 1-6), Dennard started and played extensively, except when hurt. When Browner came back, they tried Dennard in the slot, but gave up on that after one game. That put him behind Revis and Browner on the outside, and behind Arrington and Ryan in the slot, so he was jockeying with Butler for 5th CB. Butler provides some special teams value but not a lot (61 snaps in 15 games), while Dennard doesn't provide any (literally zero). So I guess it comes down to: was that because they like Butler, or they soured on Dennard? Revis, Browner, Ryan, and Butler all stayed healthy, with Arrington missing just one game (Week 16 against the passing-inept Jets) so there weren't a lot of opportunities on the field for Dennard.
 
So I wrote all this up and ended up basically with the same question you started with. To quote Mitch Hedberg, "I should have just said, 'Yeah.'"
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Looks like a $1.95m cap hit for Branch.  ($1.2m salary, plus $350,000 signing bonus, plus $400,000 weight bonus which would be LTBE.)  It could be up to $750,000 more if some or all of the playing time incentives are LTBE, but assuming $1.95m and using Miguel's most recent number, that puts cap room at $10,731,537 minus whatever Chandler's 2015 cap hit turns out to be -- so about $9 million give or take.
 

dcmissle

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If I recall correctly, we parted ways with Branch during the summer. It's early yet.

I am not sure the existing corners are all that bad. They certainly need depth. They could use a #1, but I'm very doubtful one is coming for this season barring a surprise. They need to compensate elsewhere.
 

Shelterdog

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Super Nomario said:
Obviously I don't have any insight into how Belichick / Patricia / Boyer feel about Dennard, but we can look at his usage pattern last year:
 
Week 1: 52 / 76 snaps, starting opposite Revis (Browner on suspension)
Weeks 2 - 4: inactive (late scratch Week 2 with shoulder issue, missed next two games)
Weeks 5 - 6: 55/55, 66/69, starting opposite Revis (Browner inactive)
Week 7: 50/87, slot corner (24/50 snaps) with Revis / Browner as top 2 (Arrington just 1 snap)
Week 8-11 (3 games + bye): healthy scratch, Butler plays 15, 37, 0
Week 12-13: 8/82, 11/74: 5th CB, Butler healthy scratch
Weeks 14-16: healthy scratch, Butler plays 0, 22, 0
Week 17: goes on IR
 
So with Browner unavailable (Weeks 1-6), Dennard started and played extensively, except when hurt. When Browner came back, they tried Dennard in the slot, but gave up on that after one game. That put him behind Revis and Browner on the outside, and behind Arrington and Ryan in the slot, so he was jockeying with Butler for 5th CB. Butler provides some special teams value but not a lot (61 snaps in 15 games), while Dennard doesn't provide any (literally zero). So I guess it comes down to: was that because they like Butler, or they soured on Dennard? Revis, Browner, Ryan, and Butler all stayed healthy, with Arrington missing just one game (Week 16 against the passing-inept Jets) so there weren't a lot of opportunities on the field for Dennard.
 
So I wrote all this up and ended up basically with the same question you started with. To quote Mitch Hedberg, "I should have just said, 'Yeah.'"
 
He's just a perplexing dude--or more fairly BB's use of him was perplexing. I think it's fair to say that you could see Dennard as the number one outside corner on the team all next season if he plays up to his 2013 standards and neither Butler nor Ryan substantially improves their play but then again might not even be on the team day one of training camp.
 
So, yeah.
 

TheoShmeo

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Shelterdog said:
 
I realize that a lot of fans don't like Arringon, Ryan or Dennard much but those three are athletes in what should be their primes who have all played quite a bit for the team (56 regular season starts for Arrington, 20 for Dennard, 13 for Ryan).  They're a far cry from a Roman Gabriel. 
Dennard is the big question mark.  Was he benched because he was somewhat injured and not useful as a backup corner who can't (unlike Butler) play special teams or was he benched because he's in a permanent doghouse? If the team had some confidence that he'd be as good in 2015 as he was in 2013 I'd fell an awful lot better.
My issue isn't with each of them.  It's with having a CB group made up of only them.  It reminds me a little of the Sox rotation.  None of them are alarming individually but a group with just them causes me some concern.  It would be nice to have an "ace" or near "ace" (in both scenarios).  Not that one will not emerge eventually.  And not that the baseball-football analogy is at all perfect.
 
As I wrote above and DCMissile reminds us, it's early.  There's a long way between now and the opener.  I'm just addressing the unlikely scenario that these are their four CBs in September.
 

lithos2003

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dcmissle said:
If I recall correctly, we parted ways with Branch during the summer. It's early yet.

I am not sure the existing corners are all that bad. They certainly need depth. They could use a #1, but I'm very doubtful one is coming for this season barring a surprise. They need to compensate elsewhere.
 
Huh?  I'm confused.. the Bills parted ways with Branch during the summer of 2014 (August) and the Pats signed him in October, where he played for the remainder of the year.  Are you looking at this from the Bills standpoint?
 

dcmissle

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lithos2003 said:
 
Huh?  I'm confused.. the Bills parted ways with Branch during the summer of 2014 (August) and the Pats signed him in October, where he played for the remainder of the year.  Are you looking at this from the Bills standpoint?
Different Branch; unfortunately, we are discussing two of them right here and now.

I was referring to Deion in response to Theo's post that it feels like when we lost him and Givens at WR.
 

Ferm Sheller

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Corsi said:
#Bengals CB Terence Newman, who visited the #Vikings yesterday, is headed to New England for a #Patriots visit today, source says.


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I'd hold out for an older CB, if I were the Pats.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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BigSoxFan said:
Terence Newman would be a disaster of Duane Starksian proportions.
 
Not great, but as a depth corner he's not a bad addition at this point with all viable CBs gone including Tramon Williams, who signed with the Browns. 
 
Some stats (among players with 25% snaps played):
  • Allowed a decent 80.5 NFL rating (33rd out of 108 players)
  • Allowed 9.1 coverage snaps per reception (70th out of 115 players)
  • Allowed 1.24 yards per coverage snaps (54th out of 116 players)
Looking closer at this game log, he got burnt vs. Denver in the last game of the season (Cinci won 37-28) but otherwise was fairly consistent throughout the year. 
 
Newman also led the Bengals in passes defended (14) and 5th in tackles (71). Also durable averaging 14.5 games played over 12 seasons (source).
 
We can't expect a #1 corner right now but I wouldn't mind the signing at all.
 
Edit: Newman will also bring a much needed veteran presence to a relatively young secondary. 
 

Shelterdog

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SeoulSoxFan said:
 
Newman was horrendous with Dallas in 2011. Has been more than adequate in Cinci until dropped off a bit last year. 
 
It's not unusual for BB to keep veterans around through the off-season and into training camp and then cut them--guys like Adrian Wilson and Michael Jenkins among others.  I think he does this to help younger guys learn how to be professionals.  
 

amarshal2

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BigSoxFan said:
Which is all I'd expect from a move like this. Although I'm not sure that guys like Ryan, Arrington, Butler, etc. need it. Maybe Dennard since his use has been spotty.
It's not like he's had a veteran CB with some good work ethic to learn from hanging around lately.

I think Bill is looking for depth more than role models. If Newman doesn't have it he won't win the job or maybe find a place on the roster.
 

Stitch01

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He's going to cost the vet minimum and like no guaranteed money.  Probably worth a spot on the 90 man even as a long shot.
 

nazz45

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I imagine Rashean Mathis will command more money but if the Patriots want an ancient corner he's the best on the market.

I'd rather see them try out younger guys coming off down/injured years such as Alan Ball or Patrick Robinson.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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TheoShmeo said:
My issue isn't with each of them.  It's with having a CB group made up of only them.  It reminds me a little of the Sox rotation.  None of them are alarming individually but a group with just them causes me some concern.  It would be nice to have an "ace" or near "ace" (in both scenarios).  Not that one will not emerge eventually.  And not that the baseball-football analogy is at all perfect.
 
As I wrote above and DCMissile reminds us, it's early.  There's a long way between now and the opener.  I'm just addressing the unlikely scenario that these are their four CBs in September.
 
Of course another way to strengthen the secondary is to generate more heat on the QB by strengthening the front 7, and so far that's what the Pats appear to be doing. I don't want to see Arrington playing outside either, but if they generate a consistent pass rush then I suspect the current secondary will look a lot more effective.
 

Tito's Pullover

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In the veteran (old) CB department, Charles Tillman is still out there.  He's 34 and coming off two consecutive season ending triceps injuries, but he was an all-pro his last healthy season.
 
I haven't heard any buzz about him, but I'd kick the tires on him if the money is low enough.  I can't think of a better leader/character guy out there.
 

DanoooME

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The only way Hardy goes to the Seahawks is on a 1 year prove-it deal like Michael Bennett did in 2013.  And he'd have to accept probably 50-60% of the snaps because he and Bennett are practically the same player.  It would be scary to see Bennett, Avril, Hardy and Hill across the line from you if you were an OL though.
 

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Tito's Pullover said:
In the veteran (old) CB department, Charles Tillman is still out there.  He's 34 and coming off two consecutive season ending triceps injuries, but he was an all-pro his last healthy season.
 
I haven't heard any buzz about him, but I'd kick the tires on him if the money is low enough.  I can't think of a better leader/character guy out there.
Funny, I just read an article advocating Tillman to the Pats.
 
http://www.rantsports.com/nfl/2015/03/15/new-england-patriots-should-pursue-charles-tillman/
 

Super Nomario

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Scott Bair ‏@BairCSN  2m
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Per a league source, the Raiders are signing RB Trent Richardson.
 
 
I wonder what the price is. If it is less than $2M, I like the idea of giving him the chance to completely transform what he was last year. He will need to lose some weight, which doesn't seem very likely.
 
Edit: here is the pricing. I like it, under $2M per with a ton of incentive for Richardson to lose weight and learn to hit a hole. 
 
 

Rand GetlinVerified account@Rand_Getlin

It's a two-year deal worth $3.9M for Trent Richardson and the #Raiders. Max value of roughly $8M, based on incentives.
 

E5 Yaz

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I'm confused. What happened to the notion that veterans would take less money to join or come back to the Patriots?
 
I think we're starting to see the injury/concussion concerns play a part here, and guys are taking the most guaranteed money while they can. 
 

Reardon's Beard

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Would love to see Tillman in New England. If he's playing to prove he can do it for another year or two, could be a strong signing to add veteran depth.
 
I don't know how bad his injuries from the last two years, but if it's just his tricep, maybe there's less wear and tear on the rest of him?
 

E5 Yaz

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BigSoxFan said:
For what, not understand a tongue-in-cheek comment? I've watched nearly his entire career and don't like him. Many of my Cowboys fan friends didn't like him. And he's 37 in Sept. He can be a training camp body and that's all I want.
 
I had insufficient knowledge and background to recognize that you were making a joke. 
 

Rudy's Curve

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BigSoxFan said:
Nope, never watched him. Like, not even once.
 
He had a terrible year under Rob Ryan, who would be coaching high school if his last name was Smith. He was good before that and has been good since then since he resumed being coached properly. Age is always an issue, but he's played very well the last three years and he's infinitely better at this point than Duane Starks was then.
 

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Since the safety class is weak, I wonder if Baltimore RFA Will Hill would be worth a look. He was only tendered a 'original pick' tender, which, since he was originally undrafted, means no compensation at all if he's signed away. His current tender is worth 1.5M. He's not a smart guy and comes with baggage, but would be a way to get some size and physical talent into to the secondary. 
 
Baltimore didn't value him at the second rounder tender level, so an offer around there (2.3M-ish) might be enough to steal him away. 
 

jsinger121

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Stuffy McInnis said:
Since the safety class is weak, I wonder if Baltimore RFA Will Hill would be worth a look. He was only tendered a 'original pick' tender, which, since he was originally undrafted, means no compensation at all if he's signed away. His current tender is worth 1.5M. He's not a smart guy and comes with baggage, but would be a way to get some size and physical talent into to the secondary. 
 
Baltimore didn't value him at the second rounder tender level, so an offer around there (2.3M-ish) might be enough to steal him away. 
No thanks. He has baggage and frankly isn't that good to over pay and sign away from Baltimore. It tells you alot what the Ravens think of him when they put him at the lowest tender.
 

Klostrophobic

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I'd be so on board Will Hill. Legit oozing with talent. What's the worst that could happen? Of course, Baltimore would likely just match any reasonable offer, so not much to see there.
 
What is the baggage, really? He smokes weed and doesn't pay his child support. Oooh.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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nazz45

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In the FWIW department, Newman was targeted 98 times, allowing 56 receptions for 11.6 average per catch. Two touchdowns allowed with one interception and a 79.8 QB rating against (includes playoffs) - he had one really awful game against the Broncos in which he was benched. Very similar overall to Mathis - who had a slightly higher catch rate allowed but a lower yards per reception average. Mathis played about 140 more snaps so he was targeted less than Newman on a per snap basis.

To expand upon the reason I like Alan Ball from Jacksonville - assuming he’s recovered well from his injury - is that, aside from bringing some height to the secondary at 6-2 and creating Six Feet Under, he ranks favorably with the top corners in the league in some interesting categories per Pro Football Focus.

His snaps were limited due to a season-ending injury halfway through the year, but he allowed just a 51.2% (8th) completion rate for throws his way. He was at 54.4% (29th) over a full season in 2013.
 
He had the eight lowest QB rating against but that can be fluky. When he was on the field, he was tied for the 19th least targeted corner at seven snaps for every target. He had the tenth lowest reception allowed for every snap rate at 13.7. Similar numbers/rankings the year prior. For comparison, Revis was at 8.3 and 16.1, respectively, this past season. Chris Harris, Jr. was at 7 and 14.2.
 
Jaguars played a fair amount of that Seattle-stye Cover 1 - Cover 3 press man under Gus Bradley - former Seahawks DC. Also played under Wade Phillips with the Cowboys and Texans so further man coverage / press-man experience.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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So, with the Cadet and Fletcher signings, we seem to be coming to the end of the road. Chandler puts them around $9 million in cap space. The other two are probably at least $3 million combined. The only question left seems whether they take a run at Connolly, who would eat up most of what's left except for rookie signings.