2015 Offseason: Non-Revis Edition

quint · Dec 18, 2014

Yup.

Waaaaay too fucking early.

dynomite · Dec 19, 2014

Might be early, but the 2015 NFL free agent class is considered to be one of the best in league history.

Here's a decent list: http://www.spotrac.com/free-agents/nfl/

Look at just the top of the WR class:
- Demaryius Thomas
- Dez Bryant
- Randall Cobb
- Torrey Smith
- Jeremy Maclin
- Michael Crabtree

It's a long way off, and I'm hoping we'll be able to focus on the 2014 Patriots for a while longer, but this free agent class is hard to believe.

Edit: And yes, a number of these guys may get franchised, but looking at the list of free agents and considering the impact of a higher salary cap, the NFL offseason is shaping up to be crazy.

Morgan's Magic Snowplow · Dec 19, 2014

I love SSF with all my heart. But did he just start a thread about the 2015 FA class and kick off the discussion by talking about trading for a guy who isn't a free agent?

Eck'sSneakyCheese · Dec 19, 2014

How about a surprise cut? Vernon Davis. He'll only cost the Niners $2 mil to release him saving them about $5 mil. He's been extremely under utilized in that offense this year and if Harbaugh leaves they may do some house cleaning. He's 30, but I have to believe he has enough left in the tank to be a nice compliment to Gronk.

jsinger121 · Dec 19, 2014

Eck'sSneakyCheese said:
How about a surprise cut? Vernon Davis. He'll only cost the Niners $2 mil to release him saving them about $5 mil. He's been extremely under utilized in that offense this year and if Harbaugh leaves they may do some house cleaning. He's 30, but I have to believe he has enough left in the tank to be a nice compliment to Gronk.

Davis will want big money. He ain't coming here for cheap dough.

tims4wins · Dec 19, 2014

jsinger121 said:
Davis will want big money. He ain't coming here for cheap dough.

He ranks 28th amongst TEs in catches and 30th in yards. He has one game all year with more than 3 catches. 2 catches or less in 8 of 12 games played. He is a shell of himself. I doubt he gets big money; seems far more likely that he seeks big money and then ends up with a one year, $4-5M make-good deal.

That being said, I think I would pass on him anyway, even on a 1 year deal. Would rather see what Wright can accomplish with a full year in the system.

DJnVa · Dec 19, 2014

SeoulSoxFan said:
Watching tonight's game, one player who'll look really good in a Pats uniform is Delanie Walker.

He's 30, and won't contribute much to a rebuilding Titans team. He signed a 4 year/$17.5m contract in 2013. His dead money drops from $3.9m to a much more reasonable $1.8 in 2015.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tennessee-titans/delanie-walker/

Currently sporting a 52 rec/793 yards on a team that has Bortles throwing the ball. Love the 15.3 yards/catch as well. If Titans are willing, a 4th rounder would be a nice haul for Tennessee & would look pretty awesome with Gronk on one side, Walker on the other.

Tim Wright then gets flipped for a 6th-7th rounder -- making giving up the 4th rounder much more tolerable. Do Pats have room for Revis signing, McCourty extension/tag, and a Walker's $5.275m salary? Possibly.

A couple things.

First, Walker is on Titans and doesn't have Bortles throwing the ball to him.

Secondly, you titled this a FA thread but the example given is a trade.

Phragle · Dec 19, 2014

SeoulSoxFan said:
Tim Wright then gets flipped for a 6th-7th rounder -- making giving up the 4th rounder much more tolerable. Do Pats have room for Revis signing, McCourty extension/tag, and a Walker's $5.275m salary? Possibly.

What do you mean? I thought Tim Wright was a star, now he's *cough* on the bubble?

I'd keep Tim Wright and see if he can improve with an offseason and TC in the system, but I do think another viable weapon or two is needed. This season one of Hooman, Wright, Amendola, and Tyms is usually on the field and not doing much. Charles Clay?

Clint Boling is a UFA. I'd target him. He's young, good, and fits the athletic mold NE usually covets. Hopefully one guard is enough.

Stitch01 · Dec 19, 2014

Would rather just see what we have in Tim Wright. Pats have enough to worry about with keeping their own guys and shoring up their interior lines, they don't need to dick around spending resources on TEs in their 30s. WR class might be intriguing though, probably too expensive for a real upgrade.

Eck'sSneakyCheese · Dec 19, 2014

jsinger121 said:
Davis will want big money. He ain't coming here for cheap dough.

If Davis gets cut he's not going to hold out for big money. I don't see it. Who's going to give it to him?

tims4wins said:
He ranks 28th amongst TEs in catches and 30th in yards. He has one game all year with more than 3 catches. 2 catches or less in 8 of 12 games played. He is a shell of himself. I doubt he gets big money; seems far more likely that he seeks big money and then ends up with a one year, $4-5M make-good deal.

That being said, I think I would pass on him anyway, even on a 1 year deal. Would rather see what Wright can accomplish with a full year in the system.

IMO, he hasn't fallen off a cliff, he's just not getting targeted. The guy had 13 TDs last year. That whole offense has underperformed largely due to the o-line being unable to protect Kap (49 sacks!) I'd take him on a 1 year $4 mil deal in a heartbeat.

Edit: I'd like to see him in addition to Wright. Being able to run three TE sets with those guys would be a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses.

H78 · Dec 19, 2014

Seeing that Kap has been sacked 49 times made me wonder if that was #1 in the league.

To my surprise it's only 3rd, and not even close to #1:

3) San Francisco - 49
2) Washington - 53
1) Jacksonville - 66 (!!)

Sixty-six with one still to play - dear God.

Leather · Dec 19, 2014

Just remember poor David Carr, sacked 76 times in his rookie season, 49 times two years later and 68 times the next.

Tony C · Dec 19, 2014

Why a club plays a rookie behind a leaky OL is beyond me. Asking for your guy to be shellshocked.

tims4wins said:
He ranks 28th amongst TEs in catches and 30th in yards. He has one game all year with more than 3 catches. 2 catches or less in 8 of 12 games played. He is a shell of himself. I doubt he gets big money; seems far more likely that he seeks big money and then ends up with a one year, $4-5M make-good deal.

That being said, I think I would pass on him anyway, even on a 1 year deal. Would rather see what Wright can accomplish with a full year in the system.

Eck'sSneakyCheese said:
If Davis gets cut he's not going to hold out for big money. I don't see it. Who's going to give it to him?

IMO, he hasn't fallen off a cliff, he's just not getting targeted. The guy had 13 TDs last year. That whole offense has underperformed largely due to the o-line being unable to protect Kap (49 sacks!) I'd take him on a 1 year $4 mil deal in a heartbeat.

Edit: I'd like to see him in addition to Wright. Being able to run three TE sets with those guys would be a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses.

Always hard to isolate given the struggles Kaep has had, but in the SF games I see Davis looks like toast. He has become slow, simply put. Maybe there's an injury reason for that and he can show a club that once that clears up he'll have his old athleticism. Impossible to know on that level..but based on seeming him, he's not being targeted because he's become a lumbering shell of his former self. Sad to see, he has been so dynamic.

tims4wins · Dec 19, 2014

Could well be injuries, we all know Gronk didn't look the same the first month or six weeks this year.

tims4wins · Dec 19, 2014

I can't see it. He is older than any LB on the roster. Maybe, MAYBE if they can't come to an agreement with Mayo they bring him in. Otherwise what purpose would he serve?

Devizier · Dec 19, 2014

Harris as a coaching hire makes sense.

Reverend · Dec 20, 2014

Tony C said:
Why a club plays a rookie behind a leaky OL is beyond me. Asking for your guy to be shellshocked.

It's crazy. I guess the fans want it, but it's destined for failure. I mean, look at how the fans viewed Tom Fucking Brady when the O-line was shaky early this year.

If TFB can't make the bar with a shitty line, what chance do a bunch of young-lings have?

Ed Hillel · Dec 20, 2014

Schefter was just on TV saying that, in order to trade Cutler, the Bears are going to have to part with a mid-round pick to get someone to take his contract.

On a separate note, Mort mentioned that McDaniels is the apple of the Niners' eye to replace Harbaugh.

JohnnyK · Dec 20, 2014

Ed Hillel said:
Schefter was just on TV saying that, in order to trade Cutler, the Bears are going to have to part with a mid-round pick to get someone to take his contract.

In return for what?

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/chicago-bears/jay-cutler/ looks like he is cuttable after '16 (as 10 mill of his '16 salary becomes guaranteed in March '15), so if anyone believes he is a good QB done wrong by his HC/OLine/whoever you want to blame I don't see how the Bears have to sweeten the deal

Shelterdog · Dec 20, 2014

JohnnyK said:
In return for what?

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/chicago-bears/jay-cutler/ looks like he is cuttable after '16 (as 10 mill of his '16 salary becomes guaranteed in March '15), so if anyone believes he is a good QB done wrong by his HC/OLine/whoever you want to blame I don't see how the Bears have to sweeten the deal

That's essentially two full seasons until you can cut the guy--that's a lifetime (and certainly enough time for a coach or GM to get fired if they bet wrong).

Pxer · Dec 24, 2014

Misleading piece on cbssports: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/24913408/agents-take-the-five-teams-with-the-worst-salary-cap-situations

They list the Pats with the 4th-worst cap situation, but then go on to explain how well the Patriots are set up for 2015 (we already know this). Because they technically are projected to have an overage doesn't put them in a bad cap situation. There are some decisions to make, but they should have a ton of flexibility in roster construction.

Ed Hillel · Dec 24, 2014

Pxer said:
Misleading piece on cbssports: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/24913408/agents-take-the-five-teams-with-the-worst-salary-cap-situations

They list the Pats with the 4th-worst cap situation, but then go on to explain how well the Patriots are set up for 2015 (we already know this). Because they technically are projected to have an overage doesn't put them in a bad cap situation. There are some decisions to make, but they should have a ton of flexibility in roster construction.

This article has substantially different numbers on Amendola than Miguel does. I'd trust Miguel, but if the article has the correct numbers, I'd cut him in a heartbeat. The article also leaves out the option/likelihood of cutting Solder, which frees up about 8 million. I'd also disagree that DMC is the only franchise option, as Ghost has to be considered a real possibility. I'd guess they work out a long-term deal with at least one and franchise the other, if necessary.

Stitch01 · Dec 24, 2014

Miguel has Amendola's cap number as 5.7MM next year, 1.2MM if a post June 1st cut for a 4.5MM savings for '15 which is, I believe, what the article says. The article just doesn't mention there is a 2.4MM dead money hit in '16 for doing the post June 1st cut (hence why the article says the 2.1 savings from cutting Amendola goes to 4.5 with post June 1st treatment, the 2.4 rolls to '16. The author doesn't explain this). This is what I did a poor job explaining in the Thompkins thread tangent.

Overall thought that was a pretty thoughtful article from a mainstream site on cap space.

Ed Hillel · Dec 24, 2014

I see what you are saying. It looks like a real tough call on whether to keep him. Looking again, maybe he does get cut, particularly if Bill is placing the decision entirely on what he would consider a fair money evaluation for him and not 2015 roster construction. There's also 500K worth of playing incentives for him next season if they keep him, so they could save up to 5 million next season, assuming those are considered LTBE.

Ed Hillel · Dec 27, 2014

@patscap: 4PM today is the deadline for Patriots + McCourty/Revis to reach an extension and have any signing bonus use 2014 for proration.

mwonow · Dec 27, 2014

What are the implications of signing this year vs. rolling over cap space? Is there any benefit to taking one approach rather than another?

Royal Reader · Dec 27, 2014

H78 said:
Seeing that Kap has been sacked 49 times made me wonder if that was #1 in the league.

To my surprise it's only 3rd, and not even close to #1:

3) San Francisco - 49
2) Washington - 53
1) Jacksonville - 66 (!!)

Sixty-six with one still to play - dear God.

Sixty-six with one to play... and facing JJ Watt in that one.

Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt · Dec 28, 2014

All I want in the draft is OL early and possibly often, especially interior OL - a boring as crap days of listening to PFW while watching espn. If we can mix in a good wideout, all the better.

Ed Hillel · Dec 28, 2014

@FieldYates: NT Vince Wilfork earned $3M today by finishing above 70% P/T on the season, Patriots finishing top 10 in scoring D & having a 1st round bye.

Bugger.

Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt · Dec 28, 2014

Worth noting that the pick we got from the Mankins trade is a top two pick in the 4th.

Stitch01 · Dec 28, 2014

The Pats might get a third round comp pick too.

Ed Hillel · Dec 28, 2014

Stitch01 said:
The Pats might get a third round comp pick too.

Is this for Welker?

EJPats · Dec 28, 2014

Ed Hillel said:
Is this for Welker?

Talib, I would assume

Ed Hillel · Dec 28, 2014

EJPats said:
Talib, I would assume

Oh, right. I couldn't remember if they lagged a year on the comp picks.

Stitch01 · Dec 29, 2014

http://www.fieldgulls.com/2014/3/27/5552638/getting-compd-in-2015

Yeah, Talib with all the offsets, these guys take a good crack every year at doing comp pick projections.

Would be nice if its right, Pats would end up with 5 of the first 102 picks albeit with 3 in that 96-102 range.

Shelterdog · Dec 29, 2014

Stitch01 said:
http://www.fieldgulls.com/2014/3/27/5552638/getting-compd-in-2015

Yeah, Talib with all the offsets, these guys take a good crack every year at doing comp pick projections.

Would be nice if its right, Pats would end up with 5 of the first 102 picks albeit with 3 in that 96-102 range.

I bet they add about 950 pounds to the team with those picks 96-102*: that's some nice DT/OL drafting territory.

*Assuming they actually use those picks.

Ed Hillel · Dec 29, 2014

Revis is excluded from the comp process because he was released, correct?

Stitch01 · Dec 29, 2014

Royal Reader · Dec 30, 2014

Don't comp picks have to be used?

Phragle · Jan 1, 2015

https://twitter.com/ProFootballTalk/status/550550049097138176

Maybe Fritzgerald will take a hometown discount for the opportunity to play for Bill Belichick and a championship. I don't think it's a coincidence this news comes out just after Brady creates 27 million in cap space.

Gronk
Fritzgerald
Edelman
LaFell

How could defenses even? Get it done, Bill.

Pxer · Jan 1, 2015

Brady did not create 27 million in cap space. In fact, they LOST cap space in the Brady restructure.

amarshal2 · Jan 1, 2015

He's not that dumb, guys.

Phragle · Feb 3, 2015

Fanspeak and Over The Cap made a cool offseason simulator. It's far from perfect but gives you a rough idea of what teams can and can't do. Here is my first attempt http://fanspeak.com/mtc/summary.php?id=ztfurp

soxfan121 · Feb 3, 2015

Phragle said:
Fanspeak and Over The Cap made a cool offseason simulator. It's far from perfect but gives you a rough idea of what teams can and can't do. Here is my first attempt http://fanspeak.com/mtc/summary.php?id=ztfurp

I think I'm in love.

2015 Offseason: Non-Revis Edition

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