You guys are killing me, knock it off. My dream scenario for this season featured someone on this forum noticing that the team might be worth talking about around week three or four.
I think MMS nails the schedule piece, it looks soft at the start and they might get really lucky, missing both Cutler (edit: The Chicago sell off can't hurt) and Big Ben when they play at Chicago and Pittsburgh. The end is hellacious, as December looks like this:
- KC at Home
-At Denver
-Green Bay at Home
-San Diego at Home on Christmas Eve, in probably the last game ever in Oakland
-At KC
They face three of their four toughest home games with two cold weather division games mixed in. Winning even two of those games in December will be a challenge for the Raiders.
The offense looks really good so far and might be a top half or even top ten unit. The influx of Wide Receiver talent (only one real returning receiver from last year is playing) and the upgrade at the center position and on the right side of the offensive line seems to be paying significant dividends. Further, Carr's improvement in season two is pretty dramatic, in terms of his ability to find secondary receivers and willingness and ability to throw the ball down the field. The final element of the offense that is much better than last year is the fact that Latavius Murray is the feature back, rather than sitting on the bench behind the corpses of MJD and Darren McFadden. That nine game sample that MMS notes starts at the KC home game last year, which was the first game Murray started and received significant carries. The additions of Roy Helu and brining Taiwan Jones back to running back from CB has also helped the running game actually make positive early down gains and kept Carr out of the constant third and long holes he faced last year. They are 7th in total offense right now, even though they only had Carr for three possessions in week one. I think they stay somewhere in that rage (health dependent) for most of the season.
The Defense is a bit of a mess and will likely struggle to stop the passing game all year long. They are 13th against the run and 30th against the pass. They made a decision to go with young homegrown corners, rather than bring in veterans and that has hurt them a bit. Worse, they revamped the linebacker and safety positions through free agency (with the exception of brining back Charles Woodson) and they have been destroyed by Tight Ends and slot receivers in all three games (fantasy tip - play the tight end that gets to face the Raiders - that would be Martellus Bennett this week). Part of this is because they lost free agent safety signing Nate Allen on the third play of the season, so their plan to shift Woodson to strong safety and play Allen where he is useful, in centerfield, has been shelved. Woodson is a bit like Peyton Manning at this point, in that he makes plays with his mind, not his feet, so he has had a couple of great, clutch moments, but is largely a liability in coverage. Woodson also has played the last two games with a dislocated shoulder, and his usually strong tackling has been suspect. The linebackers have been solid against the run, but absolute disasters in coverage. The strength of the defense is having two young, dynamic defensive ends in Khalil Mack and Aldon Smith and it shows in that almost every successful play the defense has had this year has been a result of pressure by one of the ends. If / when Smith gets suspended or if Mack gets hurt, it is hard to imagine how they will stop anyone. The hopefull view is that they will keep the two defensive ends healthy and active, the young corners will continue to grow and that they will get Allen back in early November, which will fix the problems defending the middle of the field against the pass.
MMS is right, the future is bright. They have $70M in straight cap room next year, with a projected $18M in carryover. They can make another $30M in cap room by eliminating contracts with no dead money. They have to resign LT Donald Penn, Aldon Smith, Justin Tuck and Michael Crabtree and will probably want to do an extension for Murray. After that, they will still have $60ish million to spend. They have all of their draft picks going forward and will either have an extra 5th or 6th round pick from the Sio Moore and Brice Butler trades. Reggie McKenzie has done a great job turning over the roster and getting the salary cap situation in a good place and I think they finally have a competitive Coaching staff. It is hard to say how the potential for a move will affect them in recruiting free agents, but they did just spend almost $50M to completely rebuild their facility in Oakland, which are now finally up to competitive standards with the rest of the league. They should peak in around 2016, right as the rest of the division is both leveraged against the salary cap and replacing key older components, so there is quite a bit of hope for first time in a long, long time.