2015 To Do List: 3rd Base

[BeantownIdaho]

WIll Middlebrooks looks to be done in Boston....Is Garin Cecchini the man next year or do they go after someone from the free agent list?
 
Wilson Betemit 
Alberto Callaspo
Eric Chavez
Jack Hannahan
Chase Headley
Casey McGehee
Donnie Murphy
Nick Punto - YES!
Aramis Ramirez
Pablo Sandoval
Ty Wigginton
Hanley Ramirez

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

Hanley Ramirez should be on the list.

 

[BeantownIdaho]

Good catch - Got it.

 

[foulkehampshire]

I would love to get Pablo Sandoval. He's young, a surprisingly good defender, and his bat would play well in the AL East.

 

[OptimusPapi]

I think they will see if Headly is willing to do a one year deal to reestablish value. Ramirez age and the contract he wants isn't going to fit what the Sox want to give and given Sandoval weight issues he is not a good bet to perform well through out the life of the contract. If Headly dosent happen I can see the 3 base job going to Holt o r Betts until they feel Marrero or Cecchini is ready.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

There are rumors that Texas would consider a Beltre trade due to how screwed they are for payroll. Obviously it would depend on the cost, but he might be an interesting option.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

I think they will see if Headly is willing to do a one year deal to reestablish value. Ramirez age and the contract he wants isn't going to fit what the Sox want to give and given Sandoval weight issues he is not a good bet to perform well through out the life of the contract. If Headly dosent happen I can see the 3 base job going to Holt o r Betts until they feel Marrero or Cecchini is ready.

Maybe I'm wrong, but the notion that Headley would take a one year deal in his first free agency year seems like a fantasy. He's an .800 OPS career guy away from Petco. Even in this, his "down" year, he's a 3 win player with a plus to plus plus glove at the hot corner. His numbers in New York are not eye popping, but he has put a serious dent in any notion he can't adjust to the AL. He's a quality free agent and is going to get paid like one on a multi-year deal, at a minimum as a 2.5 to 3 win third baseman with upside and a 7 win year on his resume.

Unless the Yankees try to saddle him with a QO, the market will be good for him (and with A-Rod due back, a QO for Headley is a bit of a game of chicken.)

Edit: references to wins are based on fg.

 

[gammoseditor]

Maybe I'm wrong, but the notion that Headley would take a one year deal in his first free agency year seems like a fantasy. He's an .800 OPS career guy away from Petco. Even in this, his "down" year, he's a 3 win player with a plus to plus plus glove at the hot corner. His numbers in New York are not eye popping, but he has put a serious dent in any notion he can't adjust to the AL. He's a quality free agent and is going to get paid like one on a multi-year deal, at a minimum as a 2.5 to 3 win third baseman with upside and a 7 win year on his resume.

Unless the Yankees try to saddle him with a QO, the market will be good for him (and with A-Rod due back, a QO for Headley is a bit of a game of chicken.)

Edit: references to wins are based on fg.

 
Headley was traded during the year and is not eligible for a QO. 

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Headley was traded during the year and is not eligible for a QO.

Ahh -- right.

 

[snowmanny]

There are rumors that Texas would consider a Beltre trade due to how screwed they are for payroll. Obviously it would depend on the cost, but he might be an interesting option.

 
I think this would be my first choice (depending, as you said, on the cost in prospects).  The Red Sox have a a lot of potential on the left side of the infield (Middlebrooks, Marreo, Bogaerts, Cecchini) but it seems a risk to pencil in two of these guys for the line-up next year. Beltre would be a great one-year acquisition (again) while they evaluate/dispose of their assets. Of course Beltre would only make sense if they are in go for it mode.
 
Edit: Holt should be on that list.

 

[Al Zarilla]

I would love to get Pablo Sandoval. He's young, a surprisingly good defender, and his bat would play well in the AL East.

I would too, but I have to believe the Giants will pay him. After a slow start with the bat, he's come on real well, they need hitters, his fielding is stellar like you say, and they sell a hell of a lot of these
 

 

[Bone Chips]

Xander. I've seen enough of him at short. Too important a position to have below average defense.

 

[curly2]

I know he hasn't played there, but if Castillo is going to be the center fielder, with Cespedes, Craig and Victorino (if he's ever healthy) for left and right, doesn't Mookie Betts have to be on the list too?

 

[OptimusPapi]

I would certainly prefer Betts over Sandoval

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Xander. I've seen enough of him at short. Too important a position to have below average defense.

 
Agree. I think the bigger question mark is who's going to play SS.
 
(edit: Would I need to wear a bullet-proof vest if I even suggested Drew on a team-friendly deal?)

 

[Sprowl]

Xander. I've seen enough of him at short. Too important a position to have below average defense.

 
Yes, Xander does not look to have the athleticism to handle the position for more than another year or two, and in that time, he will make more than his share of youthful errors (mostly because he's more youthful than most). He can't jump, he's not a natural on the double-play pivot (double play naturals play like Iglesias or Gonzalez), and he's not very fast.
 
He is good at diving stops and barehand pickups, and both of those skills play even better at 3B.

 

[snowmanny]

Are you confident that Xander will be a good enough hitter in 2015 to be the third baseman on a team that will likely have Vasquez at catcher and, say, Marreo at short?

 

[amfox1]

Are you confident that Xander will be a good enough hitter in 2015 to be the third baseman on a team that will likely have Vasquez at catcher and, say, Marreo at short?

 
Marrero is ready defensively but his bat is a big issue.  Given the issues with X and JBJ this year, there is little chance they are going to rush Marrero into the big leagues.

 

[Sprowl]

Are you confident that Xander will be a good enough hitter in 2015 to be the third baseman on a team that will likely have Vasquez at catcher and, say, Marreo at short?

 
I think Xander will beat out Cecchini in a head-to-head contest in spring training because the reports on Cecchini's defense are just meh, and I think Bogaerts can be a plus defender at third. Also, Xander will start delivering more often on his power potential as he ages, and I do not despair of his learning to hit a major-league slider.
 
Marrero shows no signs of being ready to make the leap with the bat, so Xander will probably get another year to fail with the glove. If they put a premium on competing in 2015, they may want to go with rent-a-short, or splurge on Tulo.

 

[benhogan]

Are you confident that Xander will be a good enough hitter in 2015 to be the third baseman on a team that will likely have Vasquez at catcher and, say, Marreo at short?

Marrero will not be the Sox SS next season unless he posts an .800 -.850 OPS at AAA for the first 2 months. His hitting has been 'JBJ' bad at AAA this season

 

[ivanvamp]

Guys, we need to remember that Bogaerts is just 21 years of age.  The guy is going to be a star.  But it might take until he's 24.  And if so, that's still a very young guy to be great.  Betts is virtually the exact same age.  To have two guys age 22 anchoring the left side of the infield and expecting a ton is…..ambitious.
 
And yet, I think it may be the right thing to do.  That X hasn't lit the AL on fire this year is hardly surprising given his age and relative lack of experience.  Mookie has been solid.  

 

[nothumb]

There's absolutely no indication that Betts can play 3B. If we're thinking of using two young, cost-controlled players on the left side of the IF next year, shouldn't it be Holt and X?

 

[snowmanny]

Marrero will not be the Sox SS next season unless he posts an .800 -.850 OPS at AAA for the first 2 months. His hitting has been 'JBJ' bad at AAA this season

Fair enough, but what I'm worried about is whether the Red Sox can afford to risk Bogaerts' bat at third if they have holes in the lineup at short and at catcher.

 

[benhogan]

Fair enough, but what I'm worried about is whether the Red Sox can afford to risk Bogaerts' bat at third if they have holes in the lineup at short and at catcher.

We're going to have to be patient here. The front office will need to add a SS or 3rd basemen this off season. I'd also expect some major deals to obtain starting pitching this off season so to speculate who will or won't be part of the left side of the infield next spring is a pretty tough assignment at this point.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

I think the major criticism of Xander at SS is defense. He's not passing the eye test, including his throws. Most of us have high expectations of him as a hitter, which requires patience. Do you think he's the SS going forward? Particularly with our small little problem at 3rd?

It's not an easy answer. Let's try this question:

Would you rather see the Sox acquire a Major League above average 3b and go with X at SS?

Or, alternatively, acquire a good fielding SS and replace Middlebrooks with Xander?

I don't think the current configuration is a winner.

 

[Plympton91]

I think they'll go into the offseason looking for the best available player aat SS or 3B who is willing to take a 1 year contract. In that scenario, X will play the other position. Or, they might try to get a 3 to 4 year solution at SS by packaging Marrero with Cecchini / Middlebrooks and others, while they wait for Chavis or someone else to develop as the next crop for the left side. In that Scenario, X is the long-term 3Bman, with Holt and the survivor of Cecchini / Middlebrooks as left side depth.

 

[Al Zarilla]

I think they'll go into the offseason looking for the best available player aat SS or 3B who is willing to take a 1 year contract. In that scenario, X will play the other position. Or, they might try to get a 3 to 4 year solution at SS by packaging Marrero with Cecchini / Middlebrooks and others, while they wait for Chavis or someone else to develop as the next crop for the left side. In that Scenario, X is the long-term 3Bman, with Holt and the survivor of Cecchini / Middlebrooks as left side depth.

I like the idea of going for the best player available, 3rd or short, like an NFL team in the draft. 

 

[topps148]

X was pretty much a defensive disaster at 3B this year. Fangraphs stats are here. I don't know that I'm prepared for that degree of butchery in 2015.

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

I would love to get Pablo Sandoval. He's young, a surprisingly good defender, and his bat would play well in the AL East.

 
His belt just burst during a game and he had to replace it mid-inning.  I'm not joking.  

 

[Sprowl]

X was pretty much a defensive disaster at 3B this year. Fangraphs stats are here. I don't know that I'm prepared for that degree of butchery in 2015.

 
The sample size is small, and I'd put more faith in the eye test. X made more than his share of rookie mistakes at 3B - but perhaps that was because he's not just a rookie, but a rookie jerked around to a new position. He can make all the basics, has plenty of range at the position and an accurate arm, but doesn't know the instant-reaction plays yet. Where the eye test is concerned, the 2013 Playoffs were a very promising counterexample.

X looks burned out this year. It's a long season, and longer for a rookie.

 

[snowmanny]

A good plan, but that leaves them choosing from a group whose best players are Pablo Sandoval, Chase Headley, JJ Hardy, Stephen Drew, and Jed Lowrie. It's gotten pretty difficult to fill holes via
FA.

Which is why a Beltre trade might be an efficient solution.

 

[benhogan]

Which is why a Beltre trade might be an efficient solution.

Beltre is very intriguing, 1yr at $18MM + a 2016 option ($16MM, that is voidable if he doesn't reach 600 PAs). Does Ranaudo, Coyle and WMB get it done?
 
Guess we could go with X at SS, with Holt as a back up. 
 
Ridiculously early line up construction:
Castillo CF 
Pedroia 2B
Ortiz DH
Beltre 3B
Napoli 1B
Cespedes LF
Victorino RF
Xander SS
Vasquez C
 
Betts probably ends up playing quite a bit of RF, if Vic can't stay healthy.

 

[arzjake]

#1 ABeltre via trade 2 yrs at bargain cash for the production. 2 yrs for RDevers to develop

#2 Panda. Fit right into Henry's new found philosophy under 28

HRamirez might be to old for the contract he might demand?

Yes, WMiddlebrooks is done. Time to move on

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Beltre is very intriguing, 1yr at $18MM + a 2016 option ($16MM, that is voidable if he doesn't reach 600 PAs). Does Ranaudo, Coyle and WMB get it done?
 
Guess we could go with X at SS, with Holt as a back up. 
 
Ridiculously early line up construction:
Castillo CF 
Pedroia 2B
Ortiz DH
Beltre 3B
Napoli 1B
Cespedes LF
Victorino RF
Xander SS
Vasquez C
 
Betts probably ends up playing quite a bit of RF, if Vic can't stay healthy.

 
My concern is that there's only one guy who bats left-handed in this lineup (also I don't think it's wise to pencil Victorino into any position next year, but that's a different topic for a different thread).

 

[BeantownIdaho]

What is the possibility of Troy Tulo coming to Boston?

 

[OptimusPapi]

What is the possibility of Troy Tulo coming to Boston?

Why would you want to trade for a guy who can't stay healthy and would cost a ton of prospects?

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

Why would you want to trade for a guy who can't stay healthy and would cost a ton of prospects?

And one who recently stated that he will NOT move off of SS no matter what.  

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

And one who recently stated that he will NOT move off of SS no matter what.

And also who, if traded, then has a full no trade clause through 2020.

http://roxpile.com/2014/07/29/mlb-trade-deadline-troy-tulowitzki-doesnt-trade-clause/

 

[SoxFanPJ]

This is pretty far out there, but could they consider Pedroia moving to 3B and using Betts at 2B. Third would seem to put a little less wear and tear on him then he takes at 2B as he is getting older. 

 

[Yaz4Ever]

I think the major criticism of Xander at SS is defense. He's not passing the eye test, including his throws. Most of us have high expectations of him as a hitter, which requires patience. Do you think he's the SS going forward? Particularly with our small little problem at 3rd?

It's not an easy answer. Let's try this question:

Would you rather see the Sox acquire a Major League above average 3b and go with X at SS?

Or, alternatively, acquire a good fielding SS and replace Middlebrooks with Xander?

I don't think the current configuration is a winner.

Iglesias wouldn't break my heart

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I think they should really stick with X to start next season.  If he really is costing the team games because of his defense then shift gears and move him to 3rd as a full timer after 2015.  The Beltre option is pretty perfect then if we're able to get him from TX as it will allow the team to evaluate X at SS and find a long term solution to 3rd over the year.  

 

[Yaz4Ever]

Am I misremembering things or wasn't the consensus that Xander would likely need to move to 3B as he grew long before he even got the call up?  I seem to remember many here forecasting him as someone who would benefit from the move.  I have no idea if that was based on what they saw with his glove in the minors or not, but I had visions of Xander at third with Iglesias at SS for a while - before that evil Drew guy appeared in the picture.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

If the team does not trade Betts and believes Xander is not a SS then the answer is to put Betts at SS and Xander at 3rd. Mookie's bat would play really well in the infield. I would love to see some type of a trade happen however to get top quality MLB talent whether it's Stanton, Beltre, Hamels or someone else.

 

[ivanvamp]

You guys are talking me into either Panda or Beltre.  I like Beltre better - and how fun would it be to have that guy back in Boston?  But Sandoval is advantageous in that he's a lefty and he's younger.  But I'm not so convinced he'll be much cheaper.  He's a good player in the beginning of the prime of his career hitting the free agent market.  He'll likely command a big long-term contract.  I like the idea of Beltre for 2 years in the hopes that Cecchini or Devers is ready by then.  Though the odds of Devers being MLB-ready at that point are probably pretty small, seeing as though he's just 17 years old right now!  
 
But if they're not, I think at that point you either re-sign Beltre to a short contract or once again look to fill the need elsewhere.  But it gives you two years to figure it out.
 
CF Castillo
2b Pedroia
DH Ortiz
RF Cespedes
3b Beltre
1b Napoli
RF Craig/Victorino
SS Bogaerts
C Vazquez
 
And you fill in with Betts on an almost every-day basis at 2b, SS, or any of the OF positions, as needed.  There will be injuries.  Guys will need days off.  Betts should be able to get 350-400 AB in that scenario.  I know it's right-hand heavy, but oh well.  Still a lot of pop in that lineup from 3-7.  
 
And Holt fills in everywhere else.  In many respects, that's a hell of a bench:  
 
- veteran C
- Betts
- Victorino/Craig
- Holt
 
It's versatile - you have two guys who can play IF/OF.  It has speed.  It has pop.  It has hitters from both sides of the plate.  That would be pretty sweet.

 

[ehaz]

I'd much rather give Sandoval 80 million than Rusney. The man is a proven 4 WAR player who is barely a year older at a position of need (career 125 OPS+) Hopefully Boston can compete with SF and sign Fat Panda. I know he's huge, but it doesn't interfere with his excellent mobility and defense at 3rd. This isn't Prince who has always sucked defensively.

 

[mfried]

You guys are talking me into either Panda or Beltre.  I like Beltre better - and how fun would it be to have that guy back in Boston?  But Sandoval is advantageous in that he's a lefty and he's younger.  But I'm not so convinced he'll be much cheaper.  He's a good player in the beginning of the prime of his career hitting the free agent market.  He'll likely command a big long-term contract.  I like the idea of Beltre for 2 years in the hopes that Cecchini or Devers is ready by then.  Though the odds of Devers being MLB-ready at that point are probably pretty small, seeing as though he's just 17 years old right now!  
 
But if they're not, I think at that point you either re-sign Beltre to a short contract or once again look to fill the need elsewhere.  But it gives you two years to figure it out.
 
CF Castillo
2b Pedroia
DH Ortiz
RF Cespedes
3b Beltre
1b Napoli
RF Craig/Victorino
SS Bogaerts
C Vazquez
 
And you fill in with Betts on an almost every-day basis at 2b, SS, or any of the OF positions, as needed.  There will be injuries.  Guys will need days off.  Betts should be able to get 350-400 AB in that scenario.  I know it's right-hand heavy, but oh well.  Still a lot of pop in that lineup from 3-7.  
 
And Holt fills in everywhere else.  In many respects, that's a hell of a bench:  
 
- veteran C
- Betts
- Victorino/Craig
- Holt
 
It's versatile - you have two guys who can play IF/OF.  It has speed.  It has pop.  It has hitters from both sides of the plate.  That would be pretty sweet.

Beltre is a total pleasure but next year could just be the year he starts getting worn down.   I think that Holt looks fine defensively and gives us a more proven leadoff man than Rusney.  The concept of linking power to position is meaningless except from the point of view of total lineup power.  It would be nice to think that Cespedes, Papi, Napoli could give us 75 home runs and other power manifestations, thus good OB skills and LH hitters in the lineup seem like a must.  (Of course we have those guys in the lineup now and are not winning, but next year we will have two shiny pitchers to replace Lester/Lackey.

 

[jk333]

And one who recently stated that he will NOT move off of SS no matter what.  

 
Why would you would want him to move from SS? 
 
By most metrics he's a good defensive SS. Part of the acquisition cost would be paying for his offense at the SS position. Moving him is self defeating. A Tulo deal is risky because of his large contract and injury history. At DH or 1B, he's not worth his contract due to the injury risk unless playing another position would reduce the risk. Are there studies that show this to be true?

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I'd much rather give Sandoval 80 million than Rusney. The man is a proven 4 WAR player who is barely a year older at a position of need (career 125 OPS+) Hopefully Boston can compete with SF and sign Fat Panda. I know he's huge, but it doesn't interfere with his excellent mobility and defense at 3rd. This isn't Prince who has always sucked defensively.

 
That's a stretch. In two of the previous three years he has failed to touch 3 WAR. And if you argue that this is due more to lost injury time than to lower level of play while active, well, that's not exactly comforting. 

 

[Trlicek's Whip]

Eric Chavez 

 
Retired at the end of July. 

 

[alwyn96]

 
Why would you would want him to move from SS? 
 
By most metrics he's a good defensive SS. Part of the acquisition cost would be paying for his offense at the SS position. Moving him is self defeating. A Tulo deal is risky because of his large contract and injury history. At DH or 1B, he's not worth his contract due to the injury risk unless playing another position would reduce the risk. Are there studies that show this to be true?

 
I'm not sure anyone's done a real 'study', but I think most people are willing to entertain the idea that a move to 1B or DH is less stressful than other positions. That's why Napoli and Ortiz were moved there, anyway. Sometimes a guy is too far gone for a position switch to save him, but old guys with bad knees have been succeeding at the DH since the 70's. 
 
Barring a trade the Red Sox are pretty well set with Ortiz/Napoli/Craig there for now, and Tulo is probably at least one more season-ending injury away from psychoemotionally accepting a move off of SS.