2016-17 EPL Predictions Thread

coremiller

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Jul 14, 2005
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The season starts in four days, so it's time to go on the record so that in 10 months we can all look back and realize none of us know anything. Of course teams could still change significantly before the window closes. Even besides that, I can't remember a season with so much uncertainty going in (obviously last year turned out to be wildly unpredictable, but it didn't look that way in August). You could make a plausible case that any of 7 teams could win the title. The three richest clubs all have new managers who play wildly different systems to the previous regimes.

For fun, here are links to previous seasons' prediction threads:

http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/premier-league-predictions-2015-16.10570/
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/premier-league-predictions.5041/

League table:

1. Arsenal. They had the best team last year by most of the underlying performance metrics, and their abnormally poor finishing should improve. Adding Elneny and Xhaka fixed some of their biggest weaknesses. They have the advantage of consistency and cohesion while the other big sides adapt to new managers and integrate new players. If it's ever going to happen for Arsenal, it's going to be this year.
2. Man Utd. There's a non-zero chance that Rooney submarines their season, but otherwise this team is starting to fall into place. Pogba solves so many problems.
3. Spurs. They kept all their key players and added two helpful pieces. On paper this shoudld be a deeper, more experienced version of last year's team with another year of adjustment to Pocchetino's system. I don't think they quite have the quality to win the league, but I don't think last year was a total fluke either.
4. Man City. Tons of attacking firepower. But they aren't really set up to play Pep-ball, and the back five is a mess. I think they need another year.
5. Chelsea. Is this team really that different from last year's that was so mediocre? Like Man City, their squad doesn't mesh with their manager's favored tactics. Conte likes to press, but this is not a squad set up to play that well. Their backline is old and slow.
6. Leicester. I don't think they can repeat, but they'll be good again. Keeping 2 of the Vardy/Mahrez/Kante trio was a victory.
7. Liverpool. There's potential here, but they've been too inconsistent for me to rank them higher. Maybe the hardest team to predict, along with Chelsea.
...
18. Watford
19. Burnley
20. Hull City

Player of the Year: Ozil
Golden Boot: Aguero
Young Player: Alli
 

Dummy Hoy

Angry Pissbum
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Jul 22, 2006
8,232
Falmouth
I wouldn't even pretend to guess at this coming season.

That said, In the spirit of putting my foot in my mouth:

1. Hull comes in last. By a margin.
2. Spurs finishes ahead of Arsenal.
3. Zlatan isn't very good in the PL, but everyone will say that he is.
4. And for a reach- West Ham finishes in a European spot.
 

WayBackVazquez

white knight against high school nookie
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Aug 23, 2006
8,294
Los Angeles
1. Man City
2. Chelsea
3. Arsenal
4.Liverpool
5. Man United
6. Leicester City

18. Middlesborough
19. West Brom
20. Hull
 

OCST

Sunny von Bulow
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Jan 10, 2004
24,483
The 718
1. Arsenal

2. Spurs

3. Man U

4. Stoke

5. Leicester

6. Chelsea



17. Sunderland

18. Hull

19. Watford

20. Burnley

Would be fun to see picks for last side to survive the drop
 

PedroSpecialK

Comes at you like a tornado of hair and the NHL sa
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Dec 12, 2004
27,164
Cambridge, MA
1. Manchester City
2. Spurs
3. Manchester United
4. Arsenal (come on, nobody?)
5. Chelsea
6. Leicester
7. West Ham (late charge unseats Liverpool)

17. West Brom
18. Swansea City
19. Burnley
20. Hull City, challenging Derby County for worst showing in the first division


Player of the Year: Kevin de Bruyne
Golden Boot: Harry Kane
Young PotY: Leroy Sané
 

Zomp

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Aug 28, 2006
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This is the toughest season to predict in a long time. Will Guardiola have the same success he's had with a squad that finished 4th last season? Was Mourinho's season last year a sign of his tactics becoming too easy to predict or was it an anomaly? Can Conte win outside of Italy and while playing 4 at the back? Where the hell does Leicester finish?

For now I'll go with:

1. Manchester United - This is year 1 of Mourinho which means everything should be good from a feelings perspective. United were impressive in the transfer market, getting all of their targets before the start of the season. Unlike Guardiola who I think will want to retool his team a bit more, Mourinho has no excuses if United fail. He's brought in his first choice in every position they bought for and should be familiar with the squad. He's always been a fan of Rooney, Luke Shaw, and Paul Pogba having bid for them a few times when he was managing Chelsea. It makes me nervous but I think the season hinges on Rooney. If he can play well in the 10 role all of the other players will fit into their positions well. If he doesn't play well it will be up to Mourinho to drop the team captain and someone who is 5 goals away from becoming the club's all time leading scorer. Martial has looked poor in preseason but it could be a Euro hangover.

2. Manchester City - The attack looks great with Aguero, KDB, Silva, and now Sane and Nolito playing. I worry about the back 6 though, especially since Pep requires everyone in the 11 to be comfortable on the ball. Buying Stones for that much money means I think he'll be expected to start alongside Kompany when he's fit. I dunno...I guess if Pep comes in and gets everyone playing his style they could have the league wrapped up early but this is basically the same team that finished 4th last season with, IMO, a pretty decent manager. If Gundogan can stay fit it would be a huge improvement over the two fernando's but we're talking about a player who has made 1, 23, and 25 league appearances in the last 3 years. Next to Chelsea this is the toughest team to predict, IMO. The only guarantee is matchday tickets being available the day of.

3. Arsenal - They'e stayed in neutral while other teams around them have improved. If they buy a stud striker to compete with Giroud and maybe a better partner for Koscielny I'd say they could be on level ground with the two Manchester's but I don't see it. The other issue to me is they have a few nailed on starters (Xhaka, Sanches, Ozil, and Giroud because of a lack of better option) but who partners Xhaka? El Neny or Ramsey? Or do you play Ramsey out wide like he played for Wales? As I'm typing this I just got a text saying Mustafi could be on his way...would be a great buy.

4. Spurs - For 35 games or so last year I think they were the best team in the Premiership. But will the way they ended last season affect them? Janssen was a good buy but I'm not sure he and Kane will play together. Wanyama is a great depth move and gives Poch options. I don't think their starting 11 changes from last year changes but if Dele Ali struggles in his second year they're in trouble.

5. Chelsea - I have no idea. Conte could come in with his "play my way or I will kill you" attitude and some of the players could be reborn, or it could flop. I do think he found something in the last preseason game playing a 4-3-3 with Oscar and Fabregas ahead of Kante and Hazard and Willian flanking Costa. That starting 11, especially if they get Koulibaly, is as good as any in the league if Hazard can regain his 2015 form. There are just a lot of question marks and I think anywhere in the top 5 would be successful considering they finished 10th last season.

6. Liverpool - They'll be a lot of fun to watch. Klopp's playing style with some young, fast talent. If Sturridge can stay fit he, Mane, Firmino, and Coutinho have the chance to wreak havoc on the league. I think Emre Can is a stud but I'd worry about who will partner him. Henderson? Meh. Wijnaldum? Maybe. Or maybe Klopp has Can sit in front of the defense by himself and tries to win every game 4-3.

7. Leicester - Losing their engine, as well as teams being mindful of the counter, will make it difficult for them to replicate last season.

8. West Ham
 

Cellar-Door

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Aug 1, 2006
34,463
1. Man City
2. Man U
3. Tottenham
4. Arsenal
5 Chelsea
6 West Ham

17 Swansea
18 Burnley
19 Sunderland
20 Hull

POTY- Aguero
YPOTY- Chalobah
Golden Boot- ZLATAN!

Edit- changed YPOTY
 
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Stanley Steamer

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Jan 11, 2012
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Rossland, BC
Kudos to OCST for picking Stoke, as I see them as a sleeper team this year. Don't think that will translate to top 4 though.
It's a tough one, and I think Man U is the wildcard. Many things tell me this is their year, but they could just as easily finish on the outside.
I'll take a chance and go with,
1) Spurs
2) Liverpool
3) Man City
4) Man U
5) Chelsea
6) Stoke

17) WBA
18) Middleborough
19) Sunderland
20) Hull City

I am more optimistic about Conte than I am about Chelsea.
The opposite is true with Arsenal.
I think City will win the league next year.
 

SoxFanInCali

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Jun 3, 2005
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California. Duh.
Hull has no permanent manager, have made no signings, sold Diame, and currently have 13 healthy senior players, 2 of which are goalkeepers. They are doomed.

I don't see Leicester City being able to handle mid-week European games and inevitable injuries with their current squad. They may do will to finish top half. Then again, I thought they were going to be relegated last year.

I could see Man United winning the league, and I could see the whole thing imploding and them missing the top 4. I'm not sure if there's really anything in-between. With Zlatan and Jose around, the press conferences won't be boring.

Both Chelsea and City may need another couple of transfer windows to shape their squads to better suit their new managers' preferred styles.

If Liverpool can survive their brutal early schedule, they have a good shot at the top 4 with no Euro games (nobody in the division played more games than them last season). I still think they need another option at left back before the window closes. I also eagerly await Benteke's hat trick against us for whoever buys him.

Spurs and Arsenal? Who knows? Should be good, but both tend to find a way to fuck it up. I say that Spurs finally finish ahead of them this time.

I'm interested to see what Koeman can do with Everton.

The team that may be the most entertaining to watch? The Hammers. We will see if they can handle increased expectations and how the atmosphere at the Olympic Stadium is.

Going down along with Hull? Let's go with Watford and Sunderland
 

Schnerres

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Apr 28, 2009
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Germany
1-Tottenham
2-Manchester United
3-Liverpool
4-Chelsea
5-Manchester City
6-Leicester

It seems like anything is possible here, again. So many new teams, players, coaches, systems, or challenges (with teams in CL for the 1st time), this is really going to be a fun season for the neutral fan.
 

candylandriots

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Berlin
1. Man City
2. Man U
3. Spurs
4. Arsenal
5. Leicester
6. West Ham

17. West Brom
18. Sunderland
19. Burnley
20. Hull
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Jul 2, 2006
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I really have no idea. I think six teams have a legitimate shot at winning the title (I just don't see Leicester being in the mix again with no Kante, potentially no Mahrez, and European football) and that health and luck will be big factors in how the season unfolds. The best four teams on paper are probably United, City, Arsenal, and Spurs. But Chelsea and Liverpool aren't playing in Europe, and recent history has shown that the extra rest and squad cohesion that comes from playing exclusively domestic football can give teams in England a very considerable boost.

If Arsenal make the right signings over the next three weeks - Mustafi plus either a striker like Lacazette or a goal-scoring RW like Mahrez - then I think we have the best chance, but only by a very narrow margin. If not, then United, City, and Spurs should be the three favorites.

Of these six teams, 2-4 will have a combination of devastating injuries that make the title a huge long shot for them. The Premier League is sort of like the NFL at this point: You have a bunch of teams at the top that are pretty close to each other in talent and ability and the title will likely end up being contested among the subgroup that gets good injury luck.

For relegation:

-Hull looks like a disaster and could be one of these historically bad Premiership sides.
-West Brom. Tony Pulis is very good at keeping his teams up but this side looks really bad and totally devoid of goals. I could see this being the year when they a Pulis team gets relegated.
-Watford. They were really bad in the second half last year and I can see that carrying over. The big question is whether they get the Ighalo from the first half of last year (14 goals and 4 assists) or the Ighalo from the second half ( 2 goals and 1 assist).
 
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Luis Taint

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Apr 7, 2012
5,883
1.Arsenal
2.ManCity
3. ManU
4. Chelsea

17. Burnley
18. Hull
19. Spurs
20. Middleborough

Arsenal will finally breakthrough on CL and get into the top 8 and win the FA cup.
 

teddykgb

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Jul 16, 2005
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Chelmsford, MA
I agree that this is largely a question of injury at this point. It's also so hard to do this without the transfer window being closed.

In general, I think the teams that aren't playing European football gain a huge advantage. I think Klopp makes top 4 with a team that can afford to throw that intense pressing on people. They're going to wear teams out. I think United severely overachieved last year and while improved they needed to in order to maintain their positioning. I'm surprised to see so many predictions of Chelsea's resurrection. They didn't add enough quality to me for me to think their season will be dramatically different. Conte is a good manager but he's looking at trying to use the same back 4 as last season. My surprise of the season will be Everton. I really really like Koeman and I think they had horrible luck in a lot of very close matches last season.. Finally, I think a team like Arsenal will benefit early from their stability compared to all the managerial and transfer activity everyone else has had and expect they might jump out to an early lead.

Top 4: City, Spurs, Liverpool, Arsenal (not even bothering with order) If anyone crashes this party it's probably United. I tend to worship at the altar of GD and United's GD last year was 14 which was in a mid table pack. They've got a lot to change and I'm really surprised how many people have them tipped for the title.

Relegation: Hull (this feels like a guarantee), Burnley, West Brom
 

veritas

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Jan 13, 2009
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I agree with almost everything Morgan's Magic Snowplow and teddykgb said. The top six is a complete crapshoot, I think every one of those teams has a reasonable chance of finishing top 2 *and* out of champions league. And I think this parity is awesome for the EPL. In alphabetical order, why each team will win the league and why they'll finish outside the top 4:

Why they'll win the league
Arsenal: they'll sign a world class CB who, with Xhaka, will push them over the edge. They'll Arsenal all season and be the last team standing.
Chelsea: Conte's pragmatism is a perfect fit for the EPL, Kante is the real deal, and no Europe
Liverpool: Sturridge stays healthy. Not having to worry about playing in Europe, Klopp will have them playing balls to the wall all season
Man City: The most attacking talent + Pep. The only team with the potential to run away with the league
Man United: This island of misfit toys is Jose's wet dream of a squad
Spurs: Their young stars continue to develop and shine with another year in Poch's system

Why they'll outside the top 4
Arsenal: Wenger Wengers, makes no moves, and they Arsenal all season and end up in 5th. The least likely team to win, and the least likely team to finish outside the top 4 IMO.
Chelsea: Last year wasn't a fluke and this team just isn't very talented. John Terry is done, and Conte will try to play a 3-5-2 without having 3 EPL caliber defenders
Liverpool: Sturridge can't stay healthy. Lots of depth but not enough elite talent is more a curse than a blessing without having to play in Europe.
Man City: Pep can't adapt to not being able to beat up on the dregs of the Bundesliga and La Liga for 1/2 of his league games and their back line is exposed because Kompany can't stay healthy
Man United: They're actually the island of misfit toys and Zlatan is too old for this shit
Spurs: Lack of depth, a down season from one or two of their breakout stars, and Poch's system runs them into the ground playing meaningful games in Europe

Bold prediction: Leicester is in the bottom third of the league.

Relegation:
Middlesbrough, Burnley, Hull. Given the current financial landscape, an existing EPL team has to really fuck up to get relegated
 

OCST

Sunny von Bulow
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Jan 10, 2004
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The 718
I'm an Everton guy and I would love to think that last season was an aberration and that Koeman will turn it around. They were so snakebitten, though, and the mood around the club was/is terrible.
 

Dummy Hoy

Angry Pissbum
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Jul 22, 2006
8,232
Falmouth
I'll be stunned if Boro go down...well managed, some good signings, barring a short spell of discord they were the best team in the Championsip last season. They will be better than west brom, Watford, maybe Sunderland and Swansea.

Burnley is starting to feel like a perennial yo-yo, although I can see them them surviving. They somehow seem content to go back down though.

Hull has showed exactly what kind of tinpot club they are. I don't see how Derby's record gets broken, but this is going to be a long season for the Tigers.