2016-17 General MLB Offseason Thread

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Also, I don't think top-notch closers are properly valued by WAR, but that is a different and lengthy discussion.

This. A thousand times this.

I'd be comfortable betting the house that the Sox don't win the division last year without Kimbrel. I might even bet that they don't make the playoffs without him. Even using Fangraphs WAR, which rated him higher, he was only worth 1.2 wins. They won the division by 4 games (and the Wild Card by 5), so you might say that Kimbrel only accounted for a little more than a quarter of that difference.

However, WAR does not effectively account for the trickledown effect we would have seen if Koji was a our closer last year when all of the injuries in the pen happened. Or the impact on the rotation if they were even more hampered in their ability to pull struggling/tiring starters.

Pull Kimbrel from the pen and replace him with the mythical replacement level player, and at the very least I think they are a WC team instead of a division winner, and I wouldn't be surprised in the least if they had ended up 5 or 6 games worse than they actually finished. Maybe more.

 

[ehaz]

Turner is 32 and has only had 500 PAs once in his career. He has blossomed since coming to the Dodgers three years ago but I'm still not sure how comfortable I'd feel betting on him for his 32-35 years especially if that included giving up a first round pick as well as a change of environment.

Also, I don't think top-notch closers are properly valued by WAR, but that is a different and lengthy discussion.

According to Tom Tango's WARcel system Turner projects to be a better bet than even Cespedes, let alone Fowler, Encarnacion, Desmond, etc. Fowler got $85, Desmond got $70M (to reportedly play 1B), and Cespedes got $110. The 'change of environment' is leaving the NL West and Dodger Stadium, I'd rank that as a positive.

I agree with you, top-notch closers are not properly valued by WAR, but I cannot fathom the suggestion that Melancon is as valuable as Turner. He must really want to stay in LA.

 

[jon abbey]

You're still not factoring in the first round pick, signing Turner would have cost one and signing Melancon did not.

 

[jon abbey]

And FWIW I don't think any of those guys were good signings (Cespedes, Fowler, Desmond). Cespedes would have been a lot better if he could play competent CF or if NY didn't already have three corner outfielders under contract that needed to play. People seem to forget every winter that the majority of big-money signings end up hurting the signing team more than help them, especially as the game gets younger in recent years.

 

[EricFeczko]

Justin Turner grew up and played HS/college ball in southern california. I wouldn't be surprised if the location factored into the deal.
I would be very surprised if other teams could afford him at that price.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

ChiSox just inked the Dutch Oven for a year. Really good low risk signing. Cooper might do wonders with Holland. Hahn is doing exactly what he needs to do in order to be successful 2 or 3 years down the road.

 

[Boston Brawler]

Indians are removing Wahoo from their hats. Will still have him on the sleeve.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

This. A thousand times this.

I'd be comfortable betting the house that the Sox don't win the division last year without Kimbrel. I might even bet that they don't make the playoffs without him. Even using Fangraphs WAR, which rated him higher, he was only worth 1.2 wins. They won the division by 4 games (and the Wild Card by 5), so you might say that Kimbrel only accounted for a little more than a quarter of that difference.

However, WAR does not effectively account for the trickledown effect we would have seen if Koji was a our closer last year when all of the injuries in the pen happened. Or the impact on the rotation if they were even more hampered in their ability to pull struggling/tiring starters.

Pull Kimbrel from the pen and replace him with the mythical replacement level player, and at the very least I think they are a WC team instead of a division winner, and I wouldn't be surprised in the least if they had ended up 5 or 6 games worse than they actually finished. Maybe more.

The other thing WAR doesn't look at is that not all innings are created equal. Kimbrel, and closers in general, are entering games where there performance is immediately tied to the outcome of the game. A mediocre/bad mop-up guy isn't going to cost you a lot of games if they're entering when you're up 8-0 or down 10-2. A mediocre/bad closer could put up a 3.70 ERA, but cost you 7 or 8 games over a top-shelf guy.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Indians are removing Wahoo from their hats. Will still have him on the sleeve.

Didn't they remove him from their hats a few years ago?

 

[moondog80]

Didn't they remove him from their hats a few years ago?

No.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Didn't they remove him from their hats a few years ago?

They removed him from their road hats and batting helmets a few years ago. They've been slowly phasing him out for a while. Not sure why they're keeping any form of him around at this point.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

On today's Uni-Watch, Paul Lucas says Wahoo isn't completely gone:

• However, the Wahoo caps will still be worn with the navy alternates on the road. (Or at least that’s the officially designated cap for that jersey on the road. Given the way teams tend to mix and match these days, I wouldn’t be surprised to see any Cleveland cap being paired with any jersey.)

 

[RedOctober3829]

Rosenthal says that Tazawa signed with the Marlins.

 

[Greg29fan]

Two years/$12 million

 

[richgedman'sghost]

According to Rosenthal, beginning with the 2018 season, teams will be required to start getaway games no later than 437 local time. In addition, if a team has a game the next day in a different city, the game can not start earlier than 5pm. For example, the situation the Red Sox faced this past August where they had a night game in Baltimore followed by an afternoon game in Detroit would no longer be allowed. The Orioles could still plY the Sox in a night game but then the Detroit game would also have to be a night game. Why they have to wait until 2018 to implement this I don't know. Couldn't they just change the start times if 2017 games if need be?

 

[jon abbey]

Brad Ziegler also to the Marlins, 2/16.

 

[nvalvo]

Ziegler is old as the hills, but if some of these relievers are worth $60 and $80m, I would have guessed he'd get more than that.

 

[the1andonly3003]

looks like EE got paid in Cleveland

 

[RedOctober3829]

Man that stings. That price and length of deal is very nice.

 

[ehaz]

They're loaded. Everyone's returning + Brantley + EE

 

[DeadlySplitter]

An ALCS revenge matchup would be mighty fun. And stressful.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

An ALCS revenge matchup would be mighty fun. And stressful.

You a Toronto fan?

 

[Wingack]

Man that stings. That price and length of deal is very nice.

Yeah that is a terrific deal.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

looks like EE got paid in Cleveland

Is it just me or does it seem like parity is dead for next year. It seems like 4 teams have a legitimate shot. The Cubs Red Sox Indians and Dodgers. Everyone else has zero shot. Interesting...just my opinion of course.

 

[moondog80]

Is it just me or does it seem like parity is dead for next year. It seems like 4 teams have a legitimate shot. The Cubs Red Sox Indians and Dodgers. Everyone else has zero shot. Interesting...just my opinion of course.

It's baseball. Those may be the 4 best teams, but gotta be at least a 50% chance one of the other 26 wins the WS next year.

 

[jon abbey]

Is it just me or does it seem like parity is dead for next year. It seems like 4 teams have a legitimate shot. The Cubs Red Sox Indians and Dodgers. Everyone else has zero shot. Interesting...just my opinion of course.

Baseball almost never works like that, I dare you to keep that in your signature all season and see how it works out.

 

[E5 Yaz]

You a Toronto fan?

An illiterate one

 

[Wingack]

Is it just me or does it seem like parity is dead for next year. It seems like 4 teams have a legitimate shot. The Cubs Red Sox Indians and Dodgers. Everyone else has zero shot. Interesting...just my opinion of course.

Nationals? Giants? Rangers? Mets?

 

[Mike Greenwall]

Nice pick up by Cleveland. He was the scariest bat in that TO lineup. At least he's out of the AL east.
Toronto not only loses EE, now they're realizing they're probably stuck with Joey Bats.

As for the above conversation, there does seem to be a real gap between Cubs, Red Sox, Dodgers and Cleveland. But I would probably take the field as of right now.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Nice pick up by Cleveland. He was the scariest bat in that TO lineup. At least he's out of the AL east.
Toronto not only loses EE, now they're realizing they're probably stuck with Joey Bats.

As for the above conversation, there does seem to be a real gap between Cubs, Red Sox, Dodgers and Cleveland. But I would probably take the field as of right now.

How are they stuck with Joey Bats?

 

[DaubachmanTurnerOD]

The other thing WAR doesn't look at is that not all innings are created equal. Kimbrel, and closers in general, are entering games where there performance is immediately tied to the outcome of the game. A mediocre/bad mop-up guy isn't going to cost you a lot of games if they're entering when you're up 8-0 or down 10-2. A mediocre/bad closer could put up a 3.70 ERA, but cost you 7 or 8 games over a top-shelf guy.

WAR does incorporate a leverage index for relievers.

At least, fWAR does (the Fangraphs authors frequently make that point), and I believe that the only difference between theirs and B-Ref is that B-Ref uses RA9, so rWAR likely accounts for leverage as well (but I could be wrong about that).

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Nationals? Giants? Rangers? Mets?

While you can never count out the Giants for obvious reasons, the Mets and Nationals usually lose one of their core guys at some point. Even at full health the gap between the Dodgers/Cubs and the Mets and Nationals is pretty significant. Maybe I'm wrong but just in my opinion it seems pretty clear.

Rangers? There is a clear gap with them and the Sox/Indians.

 

[Mike Greenwall]

How are they stuck with Joey Bats?

Maybe I'm being too glib, but I think the Jays F.O might bring back JB to keep pace with the elite teams in the AL. Much to the chagrin of their fan base.

Edit:

 

[dynomite]

Rangers? There is a clear gap with them and the Sox/Indians.

This whole concept of who can and can't win is a little strange to me, especially in an era with 2 wild cards per league in which two 80-something win teams met in the World Series as recently as 2014 (Royals and Giants).

More specifically, the Rangers finished 1st in the AL in the regular season and should have a full year from Darvish, Mazara, and Lucroy in 2017. I agree that they're not as talented as the Sox or Indians overall, but a rotation of injured Kluber, Josh Tomlin, and drone aficionado Trevor Bauer just ran through the AL playoffs all the way to Game 7 of the World Series. It's hard to say in December who will be rounding into form in October.

 

[Plympton91]

Is it just me or does it seem like parity is dead for next year. It seems like 4 teams have a legitimate shot. The Cubs Red Sox Indians and Dodgers. Everyone else has zero shot. Interesting...just my opinion of course.

Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Tanner Roark, Bryce Harper, Adam Eaton, Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy, and Anthony Rendon would like a word with you.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Tanner Roark, Bryce Harper, Adam Eaton, Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy, and Anthony Rendon would like a word with you.

Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, George Springer, Lance McCullers et al might beg for a moment to chat as well.

But really, moondog80 and jon abbey gave the best answer. That's just not how baseball works. Nobody's a lock to make the playoffs, and almost nobody is a lock to miss them. And even assuming all four of the teams Tyrone tabbed make the playoffs, there will be six other teams in there and absolutely any of them could get hot and win it all.

 

[BJBossman]

They removed him from their road hats and batting helmets a few years ago. They've been slowly phasing him out for a while. Not sure why they're keeping any form of him around at this point.

Because its a great classic logo?

 

[cheech13]

Because its a great classic logo?

Did you mean to say racist caricature?

 

[CarolinaBeerGuy]

Did you mean to say racist caricature?

Damn autocorrect strikes again.

 

[Oppo]

Gallardo (edit: plus $2) to Sea
S Smith to Bal

Minor move, but makes sense for both sides. Sea needed a 5th starter I guess (other SP: Felix, Iwakuma, Paxton, Miranda, Karns, Whalen, Heston) Bal needed a LH OF and now can fit Ubaldo and Miley in the rotation! Gallardo due $13 and Smith $7 next year. Details unknown, but Balt expected to pay about have of Gallardos $.

 

[Oppo]

Then Sea traded Karns to KC for Dyson.

 

[Oppo]

Oakland A's to trade Trevor Plouffe July 2017

 

[MakMan44]

Braves trade Mallex Smith and Shae Simmons to the M's for 2 prospects and the M's then flipped Smith and 2 of their own prospects to the Rays for Drew Smyly

A's sign Santiago Casilla to a 2 year deal

 

[curly2]

It looks like Joey Batts is staying with the Blue Jays.

Totally logical move for both sides. At this point, they both needed each other

 

[jon abbey]

Dammit, not surprising, but I was really hoping to see him out of the division. At least they lost Encarnacion...

 

[opes]

Damn, I was really hoping he'd get no more than $10-12 /yr

 

[moondog80]

Two year deal between 35 and 40 mil? Toronto blinks.

 

[Average Reds]

Damn, I was really hoping he'd get no more than $10-12 /yr

A bit silly to think he would sign a deal for significantly less than a qualifying offer in January.

 

[opes]

Oh I agree. I was just hoping he would be that desperate.

 

[moondog80]

A bit silly to think he would sign a deal for significantly less than a qualifying offer in January.

Why? Players/agents misread the market all he time. Nelson Cruz signed for 8 mil after turning down a 14 mil qualifying offer. I'm actually surprised Toronto would give him more significantly more jab the QO given his apparent lack of other suitors. Good for him though. And good for me not having to read any more threads about whether or not the Sox should sign him.