2016 Eastern Conference

nighthob

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Jul 15, 2005
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The NBA still maintains the division names, but they're essentially going away now with seeding being done by record regardless of division finish.
 
Tier Cleveland
 
The Cavs deserve their own tier, the conference is pretty much theirs to lose. They're returning last year's team, getting a full season from Shumpert to help keep the Bronimator rested. Tristan Thompson will, sooner or later, either re-sign or head out via sign & trade for yet another piece to help solidify the Cavs' hold on the East. Irving and Love will both be injured sooner or later, but the Cavs' brought in Mo Williams to give them some more depth at the 1 and have Jefferson, Shumpert, and JR Smith for depth at the SF/SG spots.
 
Tier One A (possible challengers)
 
Atlanta Hawks- Losing DeMarre Carroll hurts, no doubt, but they added Tiago Splitter for depth at the PF/C spot. This is, I think, an underrated addition. He isn't a great player by any means, but it allows them to get Horford more rest, as well as play Horford some more time at the PF spot to better protect him from injury. They're returning their three best players from last year, and while Junior Hardaway is no DeMarre Carroll, I think he's going to be better than anticipated now that he's free from the circus. They're also getting their top wing defender back from his tussle with the NYPD. Grondo (Schroeder) has also looked really good so far and may coming into his own as a trade asset should a star player go on the market.
 
Miami Heat- Bosh is back from his blood clot, they're getting a full year of  Dragic, Hassan Whiteside is taking over the center spot allowing Bosh to return to his comfort zone at the PF spot. Dragic means that Mario Chalmers is now the backup he was born to be. They also have some serviceable depth at the PF/C spots with McBob, Birdman, and Amar'e, and added Gerald Green & tenth pick Justise Winslow for wing depth. The biggest questions for them are the health of Deng and Wade.
 
Tier Two (Teams that might make the ECF, only to lose)
 
Chicago Bulls- Thibs ran this squad into the ground last year, they were used all up by the time the playoffs arrived. I think Hoiberg will be good for them in this regard. They clearly have the horses at the PF/C spot to get Joakim Noah more rest during the regular season. They probably have too much depth there and need to find a way to turn Taj Gibson into better depth guys on the perimeter. Mirotic is another year better and Portis looks like he'll be giving solid minutes from day one (which is easier to do with the sheer number of quality vets they have). Jimmy Butler is signed and happy.
 
Toronto Raptors- They lost Amir Johnson, but added DeMarre Carroll as a swing forward. That strikes me as a net even (they lose a little on defense, gain a little on offense). Jonas V keeps getting better, Patrick Patterson takes over as the primary PF. Bismack Biyombo has been added as the backup C and they took a flyer on Anthony Bennett in hopes that he could finally find his niche as Brandon Bass v2.0. I think this season will look a lot like last year with 46-48 wins.
 
Milwaukee Bucks- Greg Monroe was a pretty poor defensive power forward. He doesn't really have the footspeed for the perimeter part of the job defensively. That's not a problem now as the Bucks have guys that defend the PF spot, allowing Monroe to focus on post scoring and defense. With Henson, the Greek Freak, and Miles Plumlee they have plenty of PF/C depth and Monroe improves the offense. Jabari Parker returns from injury and will probably play both F spots while Khris Middleton will give them minutes at both wing spots. Antetokounmpo will also get to play some SF this season to provide them with better depth at the wing. The one weakness is at the PG spot where they'll be relying on Jason Kidd's ability to get the most out of Michael Carter-Williams and Greivis Vasquez. They still have Bayless and Mayo kicking around for depth.
 
Tier Three (Teams that might make the second round if everything breaks right)
 
Washington Wizards- Otto Porter looks, so far, like he's building on his successful post ASB run. Add in Jared Dudley for depth and there may not actually be a dropoff at the SF spot despite the loss of Pierce. They have flotsam & jetsam for wing depth after that and  Kelly Oubre as a high upside player that won't give them much next year. They have some decent depth players at the PF/C spot in DeJuan Blair, and Humphries with Drew Gooden for emergencies. Unfortunately they're going to need them as Nene looks like he spent the offseason on Jared Sullinger's training regimen. This team will live and die by its guards, luckily they have a pretty good pair in Wall and Beal.
 
Indiana Pacers- I'm temporarily putting them here, with the caveat that I think they're the team most likely to blow things up midseason and start from scratch. Paul George isn't happy about moving to the PF spot, but they're light at the 4/5 with their best hope being rookie center Myles Turner. I can see the relationship with George going far enough south that the Pacers decide to move on by the trade deadline. Monta Ellis takes over the SG spot, with Stuckey providing depth at both guard spots. George Hill continues as the starting PG and CJ Miles at the SF spot. Right now this looks like a 46-48 win team, if they do move George then they're likely dropping out of the playoff picture.
 
Tier Four (The rest of the teams competing for the 7th/8th seeds)
 
Boston Celtics- Added more depth players and will continue to play a 12 man rotation in hopes of wearing opponents out. This works better later in the season when the good teams are more worried about rest/injury and the bad ones jockeying for lottery balls. I expect another strong season finish, and possibly a playoff birth, but come the playoffs the whole 12 man rotation strategy doesn't work nearly as well. Olynyk's conditioning looks much better, so he's an actual trade asset now. Sullinger's does not look any better to me, but thanks to Johnson and Lee Sullinger can now focus on his new career as Subway's new Jared. If Indiana does put George up for bids, Boston is going to be the favourite as they can give Bird what pretty much no one else can, a real entry in the Ben Simmons Sweepstakes (Philadelphia could, they just won't).
 
New York Knicks- Nothing to lose for this year, so they won't start throwing games in December. They still probably won't win more than 35-38 games, though. Carmelo's back for better and worse. Porzingis has a lot of upside as a stretch 4, in the meantime they'll be starting All-Bust 2nd Team F Derrick Williams. The Other Lopez brother is their starting center, that's a plus for them. Between Afflalo and Calderon they'll have some spacing this year.
 
Detroit Pistons- Reggie Jackson played better once he escaped OKC. The Pistons will have him for the full season. They've worked on their spacing issues via the addition of Ilyasova and adding Other Morris Brother on the cheap. Other Morris is really only keeping Stanley Johnson's place arm for him. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope seems to be getting better. Not sure they're quite ready for the leap, though.
 
Orlando Magic- My darkhorse pick for the team that outworks everyone on the back nine and ekes out an eighth spot as a result. Scott Skiles has one talent as an NBA coach, bleeding every possible win out of young teams, and the Magic have pretty much assembled his dream roster. They have depth everywhere, some solid young scorers in Harris and Oladipo, depth on the wing with Evan Fournier and Mario Hezonja, lots of bodies at the PF/C spot with Aaron Gordon and Vuvecic starting and being backed up by Andrew Nicholson, Jason Smith and Channing Frye. They have an up & coming PG in Elfrid Payton with CJ Watson and Shabazz Napier as backups. 
 
Ye Olde Cannon Fodder (Teams that will fatten everyone's winning percentage) 
 
Charlotte Hornets- Added Frank the Tank, who is probably their center of the future after they trade Al Jefferson. Jefferson, in what is sure to be a shock, reported in prime condition ahead of his contract year. But that might net them something good in trade when the time comes. Kemba Walker is starting at the PG spot, they brought in Nicholas Batum at the SG/SF spot. Would have been an interesting addition to Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, but the latter may be out for the season. Lots of uninspiring bodies behind Batum. They have some solid depth at the PF/C spots with Spencer Hawes, Marvin Williams, and whichever Zeller brother plays for them. This is a team biding its time until it strikes lottery gold.
 
Brooklyn Nets- Their big addition was Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, whose shooting is awful enough that he's unlikely to ever father kids. Luckily for them he isn't starting, but their starting SF will be beating the drum for a trade or buyout by Christmas so that he can play for a title in the spring. He'll probably get it. Not much depth anywhere, they're a Pouffy Lopez injury away from challenging the Sixers for the 15th seed.
 
Philadelphia 76ers- Noel keeps getting better, Okafor certainly looks like the guy to hold down the C spot. But this team has some real spacing issues, the distance shooting is so weak that they could field a top ten defensive squad and still lose 50 games. Stauskas is the guy they're relying on to space the floor for everyone. It won't be pretty. Maybe they'll get lucky in the lottery this year.
 

Sam Ray Not

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[The Cavs] are returning last year's team, getting a full season from Shumpert to help keep the Bronimator rested
 
Shumpert's out at least till January after wrist surgery on his shooting hand. It's hard to imagine he'll be near 100% when he returns, even if all he's really asked to do offensively is hit open threes. He's by far their best perimeter defender -- his D on Klay Thompson was a big part of the reason the Warriors didn't sweep them in the finals, I think. In his absence, their perimeter D will be heavily reliant on JR Smith (mediocre at best) and LeBron (great when he applies himself, but he tends to conserve his energy on that end).
 
Meanwhile,Tristan Thompson is still holding out and Kyrie and his glass jaw still have no set return date.
 
Also... the Bronimator is 31, is coming off his worst statistical season in 7-8 years (including a dirty-little-secret .487 ts% in last year's playoffs), has now logged over 43,000 total career minutes (more than Bird or Magic played their whole careers), and is talking openly to the press about how his body doesn't feel the way it used to, and how he could have used a lot more rest this summer.
 
Preseason ... but the Cavs are now 0-3, and LeBron has not played well.
 
Obviously they're still the favorites -- Kevin Love in particular seems poised for a great season -- but I don't think their margin is nearly as wide as the press is making it out to be. I might even take "the Field" over them for the #1 seed at this point, as I suspect the regular season is not the Cavs' priority, and LeBron taking another mental/physical hiatus or two is a distinct possibility.
 
I also think I might add the Raptors to your A-list. Kyle Lowry apparently lost a bunch of weight in the offseason and is wowing everyone so far in camp and preseason -- basically playing like the East's answer to Curry and CP3.
 

nighthob

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Jul 15, 2005
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ifmanis5 said:
Missing an Orlando last sentence?
 
This board may flame you with the Boston tier placing.
 
I accidentally deleted it, apparently, and now I don't recall what it was. The perils of middle age.  :nsmith:
 

nighthob

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Sam Ray Not said:
 
Shumpert's out at least till January after wrist surgery on his shooting hand. It's hard to imagine he'll be near 100% when he returns, even if all he's really asked to do offensively is hit open threes. He's by far their best perimeter defender -- his D on Klay Thompson was a big part of the reason the Warriors didn't sweep them in the finals, I think. In his absence, their perimeter D will be heavily reliant on JR Smith (mediocre at best) and LeBron (great when he applies himself, but he tends to conserve his energy on that end).
 
Meanwhile,Tristan Thompson is still holding out and Kyrie and his glass jaw still have no set return date.
 
Also... the Bronimator is 31, is coming off his worst statistical season in 7-8 years (including a dirty-little-secret .487 ts% in last year's playoffs), has now logged over 43,000 total career minutes (more than Bird or Magic played their whole careers), and is talking openly to the press about how his body doesn't feel the way it used to, and how he could have used a lot more rest this summer.
 
Preseason ... but the Cavs are now 0-3, and LeBron has not played well.
 
Obviously they're still the favorites -- Kevin Love in particular seems poised for a great season -- but I don't think their margin is nearly as wide as the press is making it out to be. I might even take "the Field" over them for the #1 seed at this point, as I suspect the regular season is not the Cavs' priority, and LeBron taking another mental/physical hiatus or two is a distinct possibility.
 
I also think I might add the Raptors to your A-list. Kyle Lowry apparently lost a bunch of weight in the offseason and is wowing everyone so far in camp and preseason -- basically playing like the East's answer to Curry and CP3.
 
I agree that the Cavs are going to cruise to a mid 50s total. I just don't see the Hawks winning 60 again. Right now I see the Cavs, Heat, and Hawks as the 50+ win teams with Chicago and Toronto as possibles. Kyle Lowry is great when in shape, healthy and motivated, but I stopped trusting him to stay that way years ago. He's a lot like Al Jefferson in that regard. If he keeps up his conditioning, though, I think they can hit the 50-52 range. Chicago really needs to move Gibson for depth at the 1/2/3 if they want to keep pace.
 

Grin&MartyBarret

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I think the Bucks are being a bit overrated. 
 
I like what they're building, think they have a lot of exciting young players, but they aren't as far along in that process as a lot of people are predicting. 
 
Their biggest issue is that their spacing is going to be terrible. MCW can't shoot at all, Monroe doesn't space the floor, Parker struggled from 3 in a limited sample last year, and though a lot's been made about Giannis working on his shot this summer, he shot 15% from 3 last year. There just isn't much shooting amongst their rotation guys outside of Middleton. 
 
This is a team that got demonstrably worse after the MCW trade. They went 10-15 in the 25 games he played. They add Monroe and Parker, obviously, and while all the pieces look nice on paper, I just don't see how they all fit. Parker and Giannis are both 3/4 hybrids, but you can't really use Monroe at the 5 without a strong defender at the 4, which means Henson pushes more of their minutes to the 3. Parker/Giannis' lack of shooting at the 3 is more glaring, and allows teams to basically only have to worry about Middleton beyond the arc.
 
Despite all the talent, it all feels a bit clunky right now to me. I think they're a playoff team, but I don't think they belong in that second tier. 
 

bowiac

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I agree with GMB. Also, they're gonna miss Dudley. Say what you want about his talent going forward, or how he looked with the Clippers, but he was nails for them last year.
 
I think the Celtics are the favorite for the 2 spot, but that can be saved for another thread.
 
The most interesting team to me is are the Heat. I somehow wonder if missing Bosh last year is causing overoptimism, as we never got to see some of the warts with the Dragic fit there. I think they could stay healthy, and still not be as good as their starting 5 looks when you eyeball it.