2016 Offense: Best Pats Offense Ever?

CoolPapaLaSchelle

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Legit fanboy question, but if Lewis comes back in 2015 form, is this the deepest offensive team in franchise history? Certainly the most versatile, as they can go thunder (Blount), lightning (Lewis), two TE, four wide, etc. One could argue that they lack the 2007 Moss deep threat, but, given Brady's limitations going long, I think that matters less.

Very much related, I traveled to Pittsburgh last week and was amazed to see the substitutions from play to play. RBs, WRs, and TEs coming in and out at a dizzying rate. I am not sure how a D can prepare against all the groupings and sets. This advantage will only increase with a healthy Lewis.
 

lexrageorge

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Legit fanboy question, but if Lewis comes back in 2015 form, is this the deepest offensive team in franchise history? Certainly the most versatile, as they can go thunder (Blount), lightning (Lewis), two TE, four wide, etc. One could argue that they lack the 2007 Moss deep threat, but, given Brady's limitations going long, I think that matters less.

Very much related, I traveled to Pittsburgh last week and was amazed to see the substitutions from play to play. RBs, WRs, and TEs coming in and out at a dizzying rate. I am not sure how a D can prepare against all the groupings and sets. This advantage will only increase with a healthy Lewis.
Of course, we were saying all that last season. Then Lewis got hurt, then Edelman, then Gronk; and the OL got worse as the season went on.
 

tims4wins

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Of course, we were saying all that last season. Then Lewis got hurt, then Edelman, then Gronk; and the OL got worse as the season went on.
Yep, last year's offense, while not as explosive as 2007, was more well-rounded and unstoppable, but the injuries were awful
 

Number45forever

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I still think the best offense was the parts of 2011 when both Gronk and Hernandez were healthy. This peaked in the beat down of the fighting Tebows in the playoffs.

That said, this year's offense could be just as great. I love what I've seen from the running game this year. Add that to Gronk/Bennett and the depth at WR, it's scary. As all things, depends on health. But I fucking love the offense this year and there's reason to expect they haven't even played their best as of yet as Gronk and Edelman haven't been 100% all season. Lewis would be a very cool piece to add into this offense.
 

Super Nomario

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Yep, last year's offense, while not as explosive as 2007, was more well-rounded and unstoppable, but the injuries were awful
The 2007 team was sick. They went four deep at WR with Moss, Welker, Stallworth, and Gaffney. They had a pretty good receiving TE (Watson) and RB (Faulk) and didn't really need to use them that much because WR was so stacked. The run game was also better in 2007 (Maroney averaged 4.5 YPC) than it was last year, and the OL was miles better.

The run game appears improved this year from last year, and the TEs and RBs are better, but the jury's still out on the WRs apart from Edelman.
 

dynomite

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Yep, last year's offense, while not as explosive as 2007, was more well-rounded and unstoppable, but the injuries were awful
The PFW guys have been talking about this a lot recently, and they think that 2016 is the most talented offense of the Belichick/Brady offense on paper.

It's a good argument. I would probably take 2007 crew, in part because I think that might have been the best offensive line of the era (the Super Bowl notwithstanding, they allowed the 2nd fewest sacks of Brady's career).

Would also be more inclined to vote for the 2016 crew if we had the 2014 era Edelman. Kid doesn't look quite right yet.
 

Stitch01

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Yep, last year's offense, while not as explosive as 2007, was more well-rounded and unstoppable, but the injuries were awful
I dont know, that 2007 offense was pretty well rounded. Sort of checked every box with the WR crew, had Watson at TE, Maroney/Morris/Faulk were a pretty well rounded HB group, had a legitimately good offensive line at both pass and run blocking. Slowed down a little over the 2nd half of the season, but that 2007 team was legitimately one of the handful of best offenses of all time.
 

Super Nomario

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I dont know, that 2007 offense was pretty well rounded. Sort of checked every box with the WR crew, had Watson at TE, Maroney/Morris/Faulk were a pretty well rounded HB group, had a legitimately good offensive line at both pass and run blocking. Slowed down a little over the 2nd half of the season, but that 2007 team was legitimately one of the handful of best offenses of all time.
I'll make a stronger statement: it was the best offense of all time and it's not even close.

The runaway best offense of the last two decades is the 2007 New England Patriots. Most readers will know that this team with Tom Brady and Randy Moss produced the second highest scoring total in NFL history, but very few are aware that they scored all those points on only 158 drives (second fewest in the league). That’s a remarkable feat, especially when compared to the 2013 Broncos, the only team to outscore the `07 Pats. Those Broncos needed 34 extra drives to score 17 more points, and they did it in a higher scoring environment. After adjustments, the 2007 Patriots outscore the 2013 Broncos by a startling 100 points, which drops Denver’s squad all the way down to 10th place overall.
http://www.footballperspective.com/guest-post-adam-steele-on-adjusted-points-per-drive-1997-2015/

The Pats averaged more than 3 points per drive in 2007, so a FG was a below-average outcome. They scored on more than half of drives. Absolutely ridiculous.
 

tims4wins

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I'll make a stronger statement: it was the best offense of all time and it's not even close.


http://www.footballperspective.com/guest-post-adam-steele-on-adjusted-points-per-drive-1997-2015/

The Pats averaged more than 3 points per drive in 2007, so a FG was a below-average outcome. They scored on more than half of drives. Absolutely ridiculous.
I just took a quick look at last year. Lewis and Vollmer got hurt during the 8th game, home vs. Washington.

In the first 7 games, they had 81 drives - that includes kneel downs before the half, kneel downs to end the game, etc. Every single possession. They scored 249 points in the first 7 games. That includes some defensive points so it is slightly high. But that comes out to 3 points per drive as well.

Last year's offense was very, very good before injuries struck.
 

dbn

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I'll make a stronger statement: it was the best offense of all time and it's not even close.


http://www.footballperspective.com/guest-post-adam-steele-on-adjusted-points-per-drive-1997-2015/

The Pats averaged more than 3 points per drive in 2007, so a FG was a below-average outcome. They scored on more than half of drives. Absolutely ridiculous.
Thanks for posting that; it is a nice little study. In the comments section there is a little discussion about the importance of starting field position. Interesting in light of what appears to be the importance Belichick places on special teams in general and kickoffs in particular.
 

dynomite

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I just took a quick look at last year. Lewis and Vollmer got hurt during the 8th game, home vs. Washington.

In the first 7 games, they had 81 drives - that includes kneel downs before the half, kneel downs to end the game, etc. Every single possession. They scored 249 points in the first 7 games. That includes some defensive points so it is slightly high. But that comes out to 3 points per drive as well.

Last year's offense was very, very good before injuries struck.
What's even crazier is that -- if they had kept this pace up -- they would have scored 569 points.

The 2007 Pats scored 589 points.

I'm with SN -- the 2007 Patriots were probably the best offense of all time. But incredibly the Patriots of this era have been so historically, legendarily good that they have other offenses that can come close to holding a candle to that team.
 

Stitch01

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Yeah they've had other great offenses from '10-'12 and then again last year before everyone got hurt. Just not quite up to the '07 level
 

tims4wins

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If you remove kneel downs and defensive points from last year through seven games I think the figure goes up significantly, like over 3.25 points per real drive
 

Super Nomario

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I just took a quick look at last year. Lewis and Vollmer got hurt during the 8th game, home vs. Washington.

In the first 7 games, they had 81 drives - that includes kneel downs before the half, kneel downs to end the game, etc. Every single possession. They scored 249 points in the first 7 games. That includes some defensive points so it is slightly high. But that comes out to 3 points per drive as well.

Last year's offense was very, very good before injuries struck.
I don't think they had any defensive TDs in the first seven weeks last year. But that 3.07 points per drive was not as good as 2007's 3.19, and the scoring environment was also higher last year (1.84 points per drive vs 1.71). Plus, maintaining that pace over 16 games is a lot more impressive than doing it for a seven-game stretch.

The biggest knock for me on the 2015 team is their inability to run. They came out in Week 2 and dropped back 61 times even though they led the whole game.
 

tims4wins

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I don't think they had any defensive TDs in the first seven weeks last year. But that 3.07 points per drive was not as good as 2007's 3.19, and the scoring environment was also higher last year (1.84 points per drive vs 1.71). Plus, maintaining that pace over 16 games is a lot more impressive than doing it for a seven-game stretch.

The biggest knock for me on the 2015 team is their inability to run. They came out in Week 2 and dropped back 61 times even though they led the whole game.
They did have the one safety against Miami. So 247 points.

In those games they kneeled on the ball six times, so 75 real drives = 3.29 points per drive.

Also, I think the inability to run was more of a late season thing. They only gave Blount the ball twice against the Bills in week 2. It was the game plan to throw all day.

Edit: As I said upthread, 2007 was more explosive, and better in the sense that it was a full season, and included late season, bad weather games. But last year's offense was at very very close to that level until injuries hit.

Edit 2: in the first seven games, Blount played in six of them. They didn't even attempt to run against Buffalo and the Jets, which I think was game plan related. In the other games Blount went 18 for 78, 13 for 74, 16 for 93, 17 for 72, and then 29 for 129 against Washington. Blount's injury was a huge factor why they couldn't run late. He ran for 4.3 YPC last year vs. 4.4 in 2014, he was basically the same guy
 

Stitch01

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I don't think they had any defensive TDs in the first seven weeks last year. But that 3.07 points per drive was not as good as 2007's 3.19, and the scoring environment was also higher last year (1.84 points per drive vs 1.71). Plus, maintaining that pace over 16 games is a lot more impressive than doing it for a seven-game stretch.

The biggest knock for me on the 2015 team is their inability to run. They came out in Week 2 and dropped back 61 times even though they led the whole game.
Yeah, because the 2007 team, one unfortunate game nonwithstanding, had a real good line. Last year's line blew even before everyone got hurt.
 

Super Nomario

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They did have the one safety against Miami. So 247 points.

In those games they kneeled on the ball six times, so 75 real drives = 3.29 points per drive.
OK, but if you do the same exclusion on the 2007 you get like 3.46 points per drive, over a whole season. And in a tougher scoring environment.

Also, I think the inability to run was more of a late season thing. They only gave Blount the ball twice against the Bills in week 2. It was the game plan to throw all day.

Edit 2: in the first seven games, Blount played in six of them. They didn't even attempt to run against Buffalo and the Jets, which I think was game plan related. In the other games Blount went 18 for 78, 13 for 74, 16 for 93, 17 for 72, and then 29 for 129 against Washington. Blount's injury was a huge factor why they couldn't run late. He ran for 4.3 YPC last year vs. 4.4 in 2014, he was basically the same guy
I agree it was game plan related, but I think a large part of the reason they had that game plan was because they didn't trust that they could run the ball against decent defenses.
 

tims4wins

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OK, but if you do the same exclusion on the 2007 you get like 3.46 points per drive, over a whole season. And in a tougher scoring environment.


I agree it was game plan related, but I think a large part of the reason they had that game plan was because they didn't trust that they could run the ball against decent defenses.
Agreed on the first point.

On the second... why would they conclude that in the 2nd game of the year? Seems... premature.
 

Erik Hanson's Hook

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I don't think they had any defensive TDs in the first seven weeks last year. But that 3.07 points per drive was not as good as 2007's 3.19, and the scoring environment was also higher last year (1.84 points per drive vs 1.71). Plus, maintaining that pace over 16 games is a lot more impressive than doing it for a seven-game stretch.

The biggest knock for me on the 2015 team is their inability to run. They came out in Week 2 and dropped back 61 times even though they led the whole game.
Not that it changes things that much (I agree with you), but technically they did have this in the 2nd game of the season:


270lb dude outrunning a wide receiver down the sideline. That's just gross.

In regards to the conversation above, the 2011 and 2016 offenses were great...but I have never felt more electrified watching offensive football than I did in 2007. Is that an objective, stats-driven opinion? Nope. Just my own.

I think the Sammy Morris injury was underrated.
 
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Super Nomario

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Agreed on the first point.
On the second... why would they conclude that in the 2nd game of the year? Seems... premature.
Belichick has a pretty good handle on his team and what they can do - and can't - even early in the season. And they had the same problem in 2014. The Blount four TD game against a bad Indy run D in the playoffs was sandwiched between two games against good run Ds where Brady threw 50+ times because they couldn't run the ball (and barely tried).
 

tims4wins

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Not that it changes things that much (I agree with you), but technically they did have this in the 2nd game of the season:


270lb dude outrunning a wide receiver down the sideline. That's just gross.

In regards to the conversation above, the 2011 and 2016 offenses were great...but I have never felt more electrified watching offensive football than I did in 2007. Is that an objective, stats-driven opinion? Nope. Just my own.

I think the Sammy Morris injury was underrated.
different season
 

williams_482

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Out of curiosity, why does it matter if last year's run game sucked? The pass game was built in such a way that they didn't "need" to run against most opponents, and the results they got with it were phenomenal.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Well if you watched the Last game they played you might have noticed that with no ability to even feign a running play, the defense could just tee off against a shitty O line.
 

InstaFace

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It's a good argument. I would probably take 2007 crew, in part because I think that might have been the best offensive line of the era (the Super Bowl notwithstanding, they allowed the 2nd fewest sacks of Brady's career).
This is the entire difference. 2007 Matt Light played 17 perfect games, Mankins wasn't far behind, and their linemates... hell, even Dan Koppen made the pro bowl. That line was epic. We've occasionally had flashes of that level of cohesion and execution since, but injuries and a *ahem* lack of first round draft picks has kinda prevented that piece of the puzzle from falling into place.

I hate this term, but if you just compare "skill players", I definitely think the Gronk years have had better WR/TE/RB talent overall. But you can't talk about "best offense" and not take a long look at 5 of your 11 players on every play.

WHY ARE WE RELIVING THE NIGHTMARE
Come on now, the Lewis injury was a little wince-inducing, but it wasn't exactly Clint Malarchuk-level gruesome.
 

Super Nomario

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Out of curiosity, why does it matter if last year's run game sucked? The pass game was built in such a way that they didn't "need" to run against most opponents, and the results they got with it were phenomenal.
Part of the discussion was about which offense was the "deepest," "most versatile," "most well-rounded," and I think it's hard to make that claim if you can't run the ball well.

WHY ARE WE RELIVING THE NIGHTMARE
It's been 10 years. I'll probably never get over that Super Bowl, but I don't think it takes away from what that team accomplished. There's a Super Bowl winner every year, but that's the only 16-0 team ever and the greatest offense of all time.

This is the entire difference. 2007 Matt Light played 17 perfect games, Mankins wasn't far behind, and their linemates... hell, even Dan Koppen made the pro bowl. That line was epic. We've occasionally had flashes of that level of cohesion and execution since, but injuries and a *ahem* lack of first round draft picks has kinda prevented that piece of the puzzle from falling into place.
2012 probably came closest of the post-2007 teams, which is in part why they scored the second-highest point total despite injuries to Gronk and Hernandez.

I hate this term, but if you just compare "skill players", I definitely think the Gronk years have had better WR/TE/RB talent overall. But you can't talk about "best offense" and not take a long look at 5 of your 11 players on every play.
I disagree about WR / TE / RB talent, at least compared to the 2007 team (as opposed to 2008 minus Stallworth or 2009 minus Stallworth and Gaffney). The WR depth was amazing in 2007 in additional to the elite top two. They haven't approximated that since - it's been guys like LaFell and Branch and Lloyd at the X and then scraping the barrel for guys like Keshawn Martin, Kenbrell Thompkins, and Austin Collie when injuries hit. RB was just as strong in '07 as it has been since. Only TE is weaker than subsequent seasons, but Watson was no slouch even if he's nowhere near Gronk.
 

DJnVa

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Best Pats offense ever seems like a cool offseason thread--can a mod break it out of the Dion Lewis thread?
 

BigSoxFan

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It's probably the 2014 effect but SB42 doesn't bother me that much anymore. In fact, I found myself going on YouTube and reliving plays from that season. Will probably forever be my most enjoyable sports viewing experience. Shit ending but time has healed those wounds and now I can again appreciate just how good they were.
 

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As long as we are referencing Ron Erhardt in the thread title, how about a little love for the 78 Pats and their record 3148 rushing yards:
  • 11 games with over 200 yards rushing.
  • Only one game (the final game, Chuck Fairbanks suspension, loss to Miami under 100).
  • Amazingly, they had no one rush for over 1000 yards (Sam Bam Cunningham led the team with 768 yards).
  • 181 rushing first downs.
  • 30 rushing TDs.
 

InstaFace

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It's probably the 2014 effect but SB42 doesn't bother me that much anymore. In fact, I found myself going on YouTube and reliving plays from that season. Will probably forever be my most enjoyable sports viewing experience. Shit ending but time has healed those wounds and now I can again appreciate just how good they were.
Not me, man. The Game That Shall Not Be Named is my own personal Macho Grande.

I'm reminded of the stupid henchman from the climax of the wesley snipes movie "Blade", where the villain is about to become a demigod and he's ascending to the place to drink it and his henchman is riding next to him and says "we're gonna be gods, man!". And then he's put to death in gruesome fashion. That's how it felt. They were gonna be gods, they were thatclose. And then Blade came along and kicked a syringe of season-exploder into their forehead.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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538 finds time to comment on the Pats: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/with-brady-back-the-pats-are-playing-some-of-their-best-football-ever/?ex_cid=story-twitter

Stretches of superlative play are nothing new for the Patriots, of course, and the team’s most recent four games are hardly the best it’s played during Brady’s tenure. But considering that Brady missed a month of football heading into them, they are surprisingly close. The Brady-led version of the 2016 Patriots is in the midst of the team’s 10th-best distinct1 four-game stretch since 2006
 

coremiller

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Pats offense DVOA (rank):

07: 43.5 (1)
08: 12.5 (7)
09: 26.4 (1)
10: 42.2 (1)
11: 31.9 (3)
12: 30.8 (1)
13: 16.4 (4)
14: 13.5 (6)
15: 15.4 (5)

The 2010 offense is getting seriously underrated in this thread. Notably, they played the hardest schedule of opposing defenses in the league, which is one reason their total points were a little lower. They were first in passing DVOA and 2nd in rushing DVOA, so they had great balance. They were particularly good in the second half of the season, when they scored 30+ points in 8 straight games, five of them against playoff teams, and which included victories over the 1, 2, 4, 5, and 9th ranked DVOA defenses.
 

Stitch01

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Pats offense DVOA (rank):

07: 43.5 (1)
08: 12.5 (7)
09: 26.4 (1)
10: 42.2 (1)
11: 31.9 (3)
12: 30.8 (1)
13: 16.4 (4)
14: 13.5 (6)
15: 15.4 (5)

The 2010 offense is getting seriously underrated in this thread. Notably, they played the hardest schedule of opposing defenses in the league, which is one reason their total points were a little lower. They were first in passing DVOA and 2nd in rushing DVOA, so they had great balance. They were particularly good in the second half of the season, when they scored 30+ points in 8 straight games, five of them against playoff teams, and which included victories over the 1, 2, 4, 5, and 9th ranked DVOA defenses.
It gets lost in the shuffle because of the Jets playoff loss and because a big portion of it was just Brady breaking the matrix. Id still take the 2011 and 2012 offenses.
 

BigSoxFan

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Not me, man. The Game That Shall Not Be Named is my own personal Macho Grande.

I'm reminded of the stupid henchman from the climax of the wesley snipes movie "Blade", where the villain is about to become a demigod and he's ascending to the place to drink it and his henchman is riding next to him and says "we're gonna be gods, man!". And then he's put to death in gruesome fashion. That's how it felt. They were gonna be gods, they were thatclose. And then Blade came along and kicked a syringe of season-exploder into their forehead.
I should caveat my response by saying that I was at SB42 so I missed all the game's nuances, like the Bradshaw fumble deep in Giants territory that we somehow didn't recover, the hold on Seymour before Tyree, etc. It's all a blur whereas I think I would have remembered more had I watched on tv.
 

Super Nomario

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Pats offense DVOA (rank):
The 2010 offense is getting seriously underrated in this thread. Notably, they played the hardest schedule of opposing defenses in the league, which is one reason their total points were a little lower. They were first in passing DVOA and 2nd in rushing DVOA, so they had great balance. They were particularly good in the second half of the season, when they scored 30+ points in 8 straight games, five of them against playoff teams, and which included victories over the 1, 2, 4, 5, and 9th ranked DVOA defenses.
I don't put a ton of stock in DVOA, but that 2010 team was really good. It's funny - I've given some thought to "how many championships should the Pats have won?" and I think they end up about right (so far). It's easy for Pats fans to point to near misses like 2006, 2007, and 2011, but they also had no business winning in 2001, got some lucky breaks to get as far as they did in 2006 (Marlon McCree) and 2011 (Billy Cundiff), and of course the fateful INT in 2014. In the end, they've won four Super Bowls and I think they've clearly been the best team only twice - in 2007 and 2010, with a few more seasons that are arguable. The 2003 team went 14-2 but was only sixth in point differential. The 2004 team went 14-2 with the league's best point differential but Pittsburgh went 15-1 that year and beat them head-to-head. In 2011 Green Bay went 15-1 with a better point differential. They had the best point differential in 2012 but two teams won more games. In 2014 they had the best point differential and went 12-4, but four other teams also went 12-4. But in 2010 they were far-and-away the league's best team (no other team within 50 points of their point differential) but laid an egg at the worst time.
 

InstaFace

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By points, the 2004 team was ranked #4 in offense, and #2 in defense. They had a +170 point differential. The Steelers were #1 in defense but only #11 in offense, and had a +121 point differential. Their 15-1 record was as much a mirage as the 2009 Colts' 14-2 record. I think the 2004 Pats were pretty clearly the best team in the NFL that year, and they went into Pittsburgh and proved it decisively.

That still only gets you to 3 years they deserved it. I think you could add 2014 though - best point differential, and after the disaster in Kansas City, they really morphed into the best team. The only game they lost the rest of that year, when they were trying (i.e., not week 17) was the game @ Green Bay, and narrowly. But your overall point - they have 4 championships in the Belichick era, and deserve at most 4, perhaps fewer - is well taken.

I would have traded 2003's title for 2007, though, every day of the week. I even kinda liked the Delhomme / Smith Panthers.