2017 AL Wild Card Chase

Sad Sam Jones

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TEX loses again, 4.5 back also.

The #3/#4/#5 seeds in the AL all seem pretty locked in (BOS/NY/MIN), CLE/HOU still jockeying for #1.
Everything in the AL seems to be wrapped up. The Astros and Angels are about to get underway, but if the Angels win they're still 4.5 games out of the playoffs with 7 games to play. Playing the ".500 game", at this moment, if the Indians finish out their schedule 3-3, the Astros need to go 7-1 to retake the #1 seed.

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InsideTheParker

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Everything in the AL seems to be wrapped up. The Astros and Angels are about to get underway, but if the Angels win they're still 4.5 games out of the playoffs with 7 games to play. Playing the ".500 game", at this moment, if the Indians finish out their schedule 3-3, the Astros need to go 7-1 to retake the #1 seed.

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So you're saying the Astros are likely to be highly motivated to beat the Sox? That's what I'm concerned about.
 

dynomite

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I dunno. I think people around here are maybe a little spoiled. Twins baseball matters for the first time in about 7 years and people are pretty excited. Having meaningful baseball in September in another two markets is a good thing.
Completely agreed.

And MLB is still the hardest league in which to make the playoffs (10 out of 30 teams counting all 4 Wild Cards, compared to 12 out of 32 in the NFL, and 16 out of 30 and 31 in the NBA and NHL) and plays far and away the most games in its regular season.

That's a tough combination for fans, especially in smaller markets where the teams are less likely to be consistent competitors.

The Sox will have the division wrapped up before the Astros series starts
And we'll be eliminated from contention for the #1 seed.

Only thing left to compete for is home field in our ALDS matchup with Houston, and that's a long shot: we're currently 4 games behind them.
 
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E5 Yaz

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And MLB is still the hardest league in which to make the playoffs (10 out of 30 teams counting all 4 Wild Cards, compared to 12 out of 32 in the NFL, and 16 out of 30 and 31 in the NBA and NHL) and plays far and away the most games in its regular season.
Absolutely. The dolts who make their drive-by wiseass comments about the second wild card are just trying to earn Fonzie cool points.
 

Leather

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Absolutely. The dolts who make their drive-by wiseass comments about the second wild card are just trying to earn Fonzie cool points.
I wonder if the same people don't count 2004 because the Sox were the Wild Card.
 

Dan Murfman

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I wonder if the same people don't count 2004 because the Sox were the Wild Card.
As been said before there is no perfect system so if they want the extra wild cards be it. But if was the system in play in 2004 3-0 against the Yankees never happens. And it does bug me a little that the team with the 2nd best record in the AL would've had to beat a team they were up 7 game in the standings. And then in the ALDS you'd have the two best teams playing each other instead of ALCS.
 

Leather

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As been said before there is no perfect system so if they want the extra wild cards be it. But if was the system in play in 2004 3-0 against the Yankees never happens. And it does bug me a little that the team with the 2nd best record in the AL would've had to beat a team they were up 7 game in the standings. And then in the ALDS you'd have the two best teams playing each other instead of ALCS.
So the old system was perfect because 2004 and Red Sox.

That's about what I was expecting. Thanks.
 

jon abbey

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This system is horrible for a few reasons, but the main one is that if the two best teams in baseball are in the same division, the #2 team is given a very unfair road. This hasn't been an issue this year or last year, but in 2015, the Pirates had the second best record in baseball at 98-64, two games behind the Cardinals. For this performance, they were rewarded with drawing the then best pitcher in baseball, Jake Arrieta, and the third best team in baseball, the Cubs. Arrieta threw a four hit complete game shutout and ended their postseason in a few hours.
 

trekfan55

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As been said before there is no perfect system so if they want the extra wild cards be it. But if was the system in play in 2004 3-0 against the Yankees never happens. And it does bug me a little that the team with the 2nd best record in the AL would've had to beat a team they were up 7 game in the standings. And then in the ALDS you'd have the two best teams playing each other instead of ALCS.
The reason it happened that way was the rule that the ALDS could not feature teams from the same division. That rule existed in the NFL too and could have the effect that the WC went to play the #2 team. I'm not sure who the #2 team would have been in 2004 but I am pretty sure that Curt Schilling and the Sox would beat them (it's still a coin toss game but I would take those odds in 2004) and then histrory plays differently, Schilling hurt his ankle in Game 1 vs the Angels.

This system is horrible for a few reasons, but the main one is that if the two best teams in baseball are in the same division, the #2 team is given a very unfair road. This hasn't been an issue this year or last year, but in 2015, the Pirates had the second best record in baseball at 98-64, two games behind the Cardinals. For this performance, they were rewarded with drawing the then best pitcher in baseball, Jake Arrieta, and the third best team in baseball, the Cubs. Arrieta threw a four hit complete game shutout and ended their postseason in a few hours.
True, but this is not only an MLB phenomenon. 2nd best team in an NFL conference gets to not have a bye and play the divisional round on the road. While the winner gets a bye probably home field throughout.

Baseball is unique in that the starting pitcher plays a pivotal role in each game but for your example, Pittsburgh finished ahead of the Cubs, shouldn't they also have an excellent pitcher to start the game?

At the end of the day, no system will be perfect, but as many people have said, a second WC means the 2011 Sox play another game, we would all take it (although Lackey pitching that game on a sredded elbow would not inspire confidence).
 

E5 Yaz

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True, but this is not only an MLB phenomenon. 2nd best team in an NFL conference gets to not have a bye and play the divisional round on the road. While the winner gets a bye probably home field throughout.
That only happens if the team with the second-best record has a better record than the other three division winners
 

trekfan55

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That only happens if the team with the second-best record has a better record than the other three division winners
That was my point, sorry that I wasn't clear enough.

The idea being that losing the division throws you into the # 5 seed in the conference at best.

In MLB you have to play the "coin flip game", in the NFL you lose the bye.
 

tims4wins

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That was my point, sorry that I wasn't clear enough.

The idea being that losing the division throws you into the # 5 seed in the conference at best.

In MLB you have to play the "coin flip game", in the NFL you lose the bye.
The difference here is that the coin flip game does not approximate a true playoff series, whereas losing the bye in the NFL you still play a real playoff game.
 

E5 Yaz

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The difference here is that the coin flip game does not approximate a true playoff series, whereas losing the bye in the NFL you still play a real playoff game.
No it doesn't. And it was never designed to be a playoff "series." It was designed to make two non division winners play to earn a spot into a playoff series.

You might as well argue that a cat isn't a dog, because it isn't a dog
 

tims4wins

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No it doesn't. And it was never designed to be a playoff "series." It was designed to make two non division winners play to earn a spot into a playoff series.

You might as well argue that a cat isn't a dog, because it isn't a dog
Right I was just pointing out that having the 2nd best record in an NFL conference can't penalize you to nearly the degree that having the 2nd best record in a MLB league can.
 

E5 Yaz

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Right I was just pointing out that having the 2nd best record in an NFL conference can't penalize you to nearly the degree that having the 2nd best record in a MLB league can.
It really comes down to which should be valued more --- winning a division, or having a better record. The NL Central race cited above is an outlier, where the two play-in teams had the second and third best records.

If winning a division doesn't matter more, then you might have to go back to straight leagues, give the top three teams entry into the playoffs and have 4 and 5 play the wild card.

That would eliminate nearly a half-century of divisional play, and it would piss off the banner-making company in Indianapolis, but it would put the emphasis on winning games.

Or, add a team to each league and split into four, four team divisions. That eliminates the WC game
 

tims4wins

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Yeah I mean I never liked the idea of a 2nd WC, but that cat is out of the bag. No idea what the optimal solution is now
 

InsideTheParker

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The Sox will have the division wrapped up before the Astros series starts
That does not seem to have occurred. But your prediction is not nearly as bad as some. For example,
my husband promised me in the summer of 2016 that Trump would never be POTUS. That was a lot wronger.
 

jon abbey

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Nicky Delmonico hits a walkoff HR against the Angels in the 10th, so MIN has clinched the #2 wild card.
 

tims4wins

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Right - if you played the 3 game series Tuesday-Thursday, then the DS couldn't start until Saturday. Unless you made the 3 game series start Monday and didn't schedule a day off after either and have it start on Thursday. That wouldn't be quite as bad.
 

VORP Speed

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Add a doubleheader and you can do a 3 game WC series without changing the schedule.

This year, as an example:

Min @ NY, doubleheader @NY on Tues, game 3 if needed at NY on Wed, winner at CLE on Thurs. Gives a little additional boost to better record wildcard team in getting whole series at home and also provides more punishment for not winning division by taxing the pitching staff a bit more going into the ALDS.
 

canderson

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Add a doubleheader and you can do a 3 game WC series without changing the schedule.

This year, as an example:

Min @ NY, doubleheader @NY on Tues, game 3 if needed at NY on Wed, winner at CLE on Thurs. Gives a little additional boost to better record wildcard team in getting whole series at home and also provides more punishment for not winning division by taxing the pitching staff a bit more going into the ALDS.
Can't do it, have to have a scheduled off day in case of inclement weather.
 

Murderer's Crow

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Right now they get off Mon-Wed, if a 3 game series was scheduled Mon-Wed with no ALDS start until Friday or Thursday (if weather permitted for WC series) that’s a change of one more rest day, at worst. To me that’s an advantage not a disadvantage.
 

E5 Yaz

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espn: A season after winning just 59 games, the Twins became the first team to lose at least 100 and then make the postseason the following year.
 

mt8thsw9th

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espn: A season after winning just 59 games, the Twins became the first team to lose at least 100 and then make the postseason the following year.
Kind of arbitrary given that for much of the league's history, teams that were 7 games behind the 4th best record in the league (or 16 games behind in their division) didn't make the playoffs. And unless they win out their remaining games, they'll still have a smaller increase in wins than the Red Sox had from 2012 to 2013 (and 1991 Braves, 1993 Phillies, 1999 DBacks, 2008 Rays, 2011 DBacks, etc.).

Good on them for sucking a lot less, though.
 

Leather

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Still amazed by this. DrLeather, that must have been fun news for your kid to wake up to!

Big congrats to the Twins. Keep it going on Tuesday!!
My kid doesn't care that it didn't matter that the Twins lost. He still started crying. And the most heartbreaking thing is that when I told him "But they are in the playoffs!" His immediate, teary, response was "But they have to play the Yankees!"

The implication being: he knows they will lose to the Yankees, so he wants to enjoy as many wins as he can, while he can.
 
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Leskanic's Thread

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My kid doesn't care that it didn't matter that the Twins lost. He still started crying. And the most heartbreaking thing is that when I told him "But they are in the playoffs!" His immediate, teary, response was "But they have to play the Yankees!"

The implication being: he knows they will lose to the Yankees, so he wants to enjoy as many wins as he can, while he can.
He is wise beyond his years.

On the plus side: they might get to play the Red Sox instead!
 

Oppo

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To give the top teams in each league a true advantage, the 2 WC games should be Monday and the division series start Tuesday. Or at least go WC Monday then DS Wednesday or even WC Tuesday then DS Wednesday.
 

Leather

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The true advantage is that they avoid a one-and-done playoff game. Beyond that, home field advantage and the luxury of setting their rotation is enough.

Stacking the deck too much against the WC winner would make the Division Series routinely non-competitive and dull, which would erode interest in postseason baseball.
 

Oppo

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Baseball is a game to be played everyday. Teams don't need a day off for travel/rest or to stretch out a series over 3 weeks like the NBA.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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To give the top teams in each league a true advantage, the 2 WC games should be Monday and the division series start Tuesday. Or at least go WC Monday then DS Wednesday or even WC Tuesday then DS Wednesday.
And if the Sox had ended up tied with the NYY and had to play game 163 today . . . you would have had the Twins waiting to play the loser later on today?
 

mauidano

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My kid doesn't care that it didn't matter that the Twins lost. He still started crying. And the most heartbreaking thing is that when I told him "But they are in the playoffs!" His immediate, teary, response was "But they have to play the Yankees!"

The implication being: he knows they will lose to the Yankees, so he wants to enjoy as many wins as he can, while he can.
The Yankees won the season series, 4-2, and swept Minnesota over a three-game set at Yankee Stadium in mid-September. They've also fared well against Minnesota historically. New York has won nine straight playoff games against the Twins, and 12 of 14 dating back to 2003.

You know all of here are pulling for the Twins hard just because it's in our DNA as Sox fans. However, not holding my breath.
 

Leather

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The Yankees won the season series, 4-2, and swept Minnesota over a three-game set at Yankee Stadium in mid-September. They've also fared well against Minnesota historically. New York has won nine straight playoff games against the Twins, and 12 of 14 dating back to 2003.

You know all of here are pulling for the Twins hard just because it's in our DNA as Sox fans. However, not holding my breath.
It's really unbelievable how bad the Twins have been against the Yankees over the past 15 years. It's like a self-fulfilling prophecy or something. The perfect example, and the one that sticks in my mind, is the Joe Nathan meltdown in 2009, when the Twins (trailing in the series 1-0, but headed back to MIN after game 2) took a 3-1 lead in the top of the 8th (that should have been more) and Joe Nathan, arguably the best reliever in the AL that year, just implodes in the bottom of the 9th. But it's the WAY he implodes that's so frustrating; from the first guy he lets on base, you can literally see him start to panic, as if he just KNOWS he's going to fuck it up. And he does. And they lose. It was like watching a little leaguer get upset on the mound and, because he's upset, can't throw a strike. Nathan faced 12 batters that series and allowed a walk or a hit to 7 of them.
 
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Murderer's Crow

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I’m glad you’re all confident the Yankees will win. I’m not so sure. Lots of youth and inexperience on the roster and nobody knows how they’ll react. Especially Severino.
 

Lowrielicious

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I’m glad you’re all confident the Yankees will win. I’m not so sure. Lots of youth and inexperience on the roster and nobody knows how they’ll react. Especially Severino.
You've got the bullpen to negate that to a pretty good extent though and Girardi is unlikely to be slow with the hook in a win or go home game.
 

jon abbey

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MIN battled Severino well a few weeks ago and are a good FB hitting team, presumably Green will be loosening from the national anthem.