2017 Butler Watch: Love Me Tender

E5 Yaz

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InstaFace

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Like a 4.6? More like a 3.9, amirite?!

Yes, it does feel like Belichick is settling all his family business in short order. He probably gave Butler's agent a nudge to shit or get off the pot.

I still don't think Butler's any more likely to be traded than he was the past offseason. Contract leverage aside, this is the perfect organization for him, which is why it found him in the first place (and what Asante Samuel discovered to his bitter detriment).
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Like a 4.6? More like a 3.9, amirite?!

Yes, it does feel like Belichick is settling all his family business in short order. He probably gave Butler's agent a nudge to shit or get off the pot.

I still don't think Butler's any more likely to be traded than he was the past offseason. Contract leverage aside, this is the perfect organization for him, which is why it found him in the first place (and what Asante Samuel discovered to his bitter detriment).
Samuel's bank account certainly didn't mind.

We have no idea what the negotiations look like, but a player like Butler should grab every dollar he can at this point and I wouldn't blame him. Two rings and already 27, been making the minimum for his three seasons, go get paid kid, cause it's your only chance at this.
 

PaulinMyrBch

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Still think he goes to NO for #32. Butler/Cooks trade complete.
I don't know the dates specifically, but I'm assuming he was considered a player under contract right up to the day free agency opened and the Pats tendered him at R1. If that was the case, then I'd think the Pats and Saints had pretty extensive discussions that were going to trigger a deal once the Gilmore signing was complete. Problem was, Butler didn't sign in time and things stalled, so Cooks gets done without Butler. Only thing they technically couldn't discuss after the FA period started was the 32. If it went in the deal for Cooks and might come back in the deal for Butler, that is something that had to be off limits when they finalized the Cooks trade. So if this gets done quick (to the Saints), you have to figure it was pretty much done the day before FA opened.
 
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DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Butler seems to have done this right. At this point, he surely would have known if he was going to get an offer sheet. The fact that he didn't get one yet, means it's unlikely he was going to get one by Friday. He gave it a shot, and couldn't get anyone to give up a first, and now he signed with plenty of time for a deal to be done prior to the draft. If he waited until Friday or later, then he's getting a bit too close to the draft.

It's just a relief that he signed. Worst case, he plays for money the Patriots have already committed to the cap. I hope he stays, plays great, and gets what he wants next year from us or someone else.
 

PaulinMyrBch

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Ultimately any complaints guys in his position have has to be with the Players Association. This is all bargained for and the undrafted FA's that make the team just have it worse than drafted guys all the way up to they become eligible as UFA's. I'd love to see it work out here, but I can't help thinking if BB trades him away, he knows something we all don't. Hard to go against the coach, but we're all attached to Butler in emotional ways BB isn't. That's why he's so good at running a team.
 

Stitch01

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If BB thinks Butler is going to be a pain in the ass this year I expect he'll be dealt, probably for less than consensus "fair" value. Otherwise, I expect he'll be here in '17, gone in '18, as I dont think the Saints are giving up 32 for him and it doesnt make a lot of sense for the Pats to take less if they think Butler will be a good solider. Whichever way it goes, not going to second guess BB's judgment on that front.
 

tims4wins

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Ultimately any complaints guys in his position have has to be with the Players Association. This is all bargained for and the undrafted FA's that make the team just have it worse than drafted guys all the way up to they become eligible as UFA's. I'd love to see it work out here, but I can't help thinking if BB trades him away, he knows something we all don't. Hard to go against the coach, but we're all attached to Butler in emotional ways BB isn't. That's why he's so good at running a team.
I detailed it elsewhere, but Butler is going to make very similar total money in his first 5 years as Hightower did. Maybe even more. DH earned $15M+. Butler will have earned around $6M through four years which means he could make $16-20M through five depending on the contract he signs next year. It's not unfair at all. In fact it is more favorable to Butler since he hits UFA a year earlier.
 

PaulinMyrBch

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I detailed it elsewhere, but Butler is going to make very similar total money in his first 5 years as Hightower did. Maybe even more. DH earned $15M+. Butler will have earned around $6M through four years which means he could make $16-20M through five depending on the contract he signs next year. It's not unfair at all. In fact it is more favorable to Butler since he hits UFA a year earlier.
I was thinking there were more issues in play. But that's not exactly apples to apples, since 5th year for Butler is FA versus rookie deal. 4v4 or comparing him to Gronk may be a better comparison.

But it still isn't as unfair as I expected.
 

tims4wins

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Spotrac says $3,769,252, including signing and workout bonuses, so not even quite that.
Thanks. So 3rd round CB from a year earlier made less than Butler is even making this year alone. Again the point is that nothing about Butler's situation is unfair. He'll have outearned all his drafted peers at similar points in time.
 

dcmissle

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If BB thinks Butler is going to be a pain in the ass this year I expect he'll be dealt, probably for less than consensus "fair" value. Otherwise, I expect he'll be here in '17, gone in '18, as I dont think the Saints are giving up 32 for him and it doesnt make a lot of sense for the Pats to take less if they think Butler will be a good solider. Whichever way it goes, not going to second guess BB's judgment on that front.
Yes. "Pats have all the leverage" in a contractual sense -- unless someone tenders a first for him. But he could well shoot his way out of town for less with the implicit threat of being a pain in the ass. And if that happens -- I will not be complaining.

We're beyond the merits and right/wrong of this. Butler did the smart thing signing the tender. If the Saints are smart, in a D-back rich draft, they will not part with #32 and pay Butler what he wants. And there is no point trading for Butler unless you intend to make him happy moneywise.
 

tims4wins

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Now that he has signed his tender can the Pats offer him a 2 year / $18 M contract ($4 for this year plus $14 for next year using franchise tag figure) in order to spread the cap hit evenly?
 
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NortheasternPJ

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Thanks. So 3rd round CB from a year earlier made less than Butler is even making this year alone. Again the point is that nothing about Butler's situation is unfair. He'll have outearned all his drafted peers at similar points in time.
He's making more than Carr in Oakland in his first 4 years. I love Butler but this whole he's getting screwed thing is a joke.
 

PaulinMyrBch

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My bad for the lazy post. I was thinking there were some things in the CBA that didn't favor undrafted FA's versus drafted players, but having said that, I didn't even verify that line of thinking. Thanks for setting it straight.
 
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Stitch01

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My bad for the lazy post. I was thinking there were some things in the CBA that didn't favor undrafted FA's versus drafted players, but having said that, I didn't even verify that line of thinking. Thanks for setting it straight.
There are, but they're what you'd expect, if Butler had sucked or gotten hurt he'd have earned nothing. Just not for hitting the open market as a strong performer

There's nothing unfair about how Pats have treated Butler (within the context of an owner friendly CBA), but i don't think that is really relevant to what happens going forward
 

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If the pats are interested in #32, it could be because they have a corner in mind to replace Butler, in which case the deal would be made on draft night if that player is available.
 

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I'm sorry to ask as I'm sure it's been covered but now that Butler has signed the tender, can a team who wants to trade for him, say the New Orleans Saints to pull a name out of the hat, discuss a long term deal with him before they make the trade?
 

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I'm sorry to ask as I'm sure it's been covered but now that Butler has signed the tender, can a team who wants to trade for him, say the New Orleans Saints to pull a name out of the hat, discuss a long term deal with him before they make the trade?
No. And if there was a handshake agreement with the Saints to be made, it's presumably done, otherwise no reason to sign the tender yet.
 

Eddie Jurak

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If BB thinks Butler is going to be a pain in the ass this year I expect he'll be dealt, probably for less than consensus "fair" value. Otherwise, I expect he'll be here in '17, gone in '18, as I dont think the Saints are giving up 32 for him and it doesnt make a lot of sense for the Pats to take less if they think Butler will be a good solider. Whichever way it goes, not going to second guess BB's judgment on that front.
If you are Butler, and trying to maximize your earnings, what do you do? Shoot your way out of town via trade to a team that will sign you long term right now, or play out the string with the Pats and hit UFA next year.

Butler is 27, so he is probably going to get only 1 chance at a long-term deal. It would be better to do that as a UFA, as a team that gives up a pick for him won't be as generous in free agency.

I think staying 1 more year would be a no brainer for him, except: 1) this is the NFL and the chance of serious injury is always there, 2) if the Pats franchise him after next year, he'll get the big one time payday but that will push his long term deal out to age 29. I suppose he can mitigate the injury risk somewhat with insurance.
 

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No. And if there was a handshake agreement with the Saints to be made, it's presumably done, otherwise no reason to sign the tender yet.
The Patriots can give the Saints permission to talk with Butler can't they?
 

lexrageorge

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I'm sorry to ask as I'm sure it's been covered but now that Butler has signed the tender, can a team who wants to trade for him, say the New Orleans Saints to pull a name out of the hat, discuss a long term deal with him before they make the trade?
The team would have to seek permission from the Patriots to discuss a long term extension with Butler. The Pats are under no obligation to provide that permission, as Butler is officially under contract to New England.
 

Bernie Carbohydrate

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If you are Butler, and trying to maximize your earnings, what do you do? Shoot your way out of town via trade to a team that will sign you long term right now, or play out the string with the Pats and hit UFA next year.

Butler is 27, so he is probably going to get only 1 chance at a long-term deal. It would be better to do that as a UFA, as a team that gives up a pick for him won't be as generous in free agency.

I think staying 1 more year would be a no brainer for him, except: 1) this is the NFL and the chance of serious injury is always there, 2) if the Pats franchise him after next year, he'll get the big one time payday but that will push his long term deal out to age 29. I suppose he can mitigate the injury risk somewhat with insurance.
 

normstalls

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Dan Patrick talking on his morning show right now as if the Pats/Saints Butler trade is done... no link or ability to prove what he is saying is true. Just passing the info on

edit: Pretty certain Dan Patrick was confused and or just making up the news based on speculation/rumor. Disregard.
 
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dcmissle

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Part of shooting yourself out of town, courtesy of pft:

As of yesterday, Malcolm Butler is back under contract with the Patriots. But that doesn’t mean he’s fully on board.

Butler has no intention of participating in voluntary offseason workouts, according to Michael Giardi of CSN New England.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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No. And if there was a handshake agreement with the Saints to be made, it's presumably done, otherwise no reason to sign the tender yet.
I've read that a few places, but I don't understand it. What would Butler gain by NOT singing the tender this week?

Unless he was going to hold out, the timing makes complete sense to me. He didn't get an offer sheet. He knows he's going to sign the tender by June 15. The move to make is to sign the tender with some time left before the draft so that you maybe can get some trade discussion going while teams still have needs and draft picks to trade.
 

dcmissle

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I've read that a few places, but I don't understand it. What would Butler gain by NOT singing the tender this week?

Unless he was going to hold out, the timing makes complete sense to me. He didn't get an offer sheet. He knows he's going to sign the tender by June 15. The move to make is to sign the tender with some time left before the draft so that you maybe can get some trade discussion going while teams still have needs and draft picks to trade.
You're right, IMO, and he was never realistically holding out. And the Patriots have been meticulously careful in this area, so I do not believe in any handshake deals.

He signs the tender, guarantees himself that money, opens the door for a trade, but will live up to the contract if one cannot be made. In the meantime, he sends a clear signal he wants to go -- *no voluntary workouts for me.*

He is playing his hand well.
 

edmunddantes

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Which I have no problem with him doing.

He's just taking advantage of the same rules the Patriots are taking advantage.

Good for him.
You're right, IMO, and he was never realistically holding out. And the Patriots have been meticulously careful in this area, so I do not believe in any handshake deals.

He signs the tender, guarantees himself that money, opens the door for a trade, but will live up to the contract if one cannot be made. In the meantime, he sends a clear signal he wants to go -- *no voluntary workouts for me.*

He is playing his hand well.
 

Stitch01

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I've read that a few places, but I don't understand it. What would Butler gain by NOT singing the tender this week?

Unless he was going to hold out, the timing makes complete sense to me. He didn't get an offer sheet. He knows he's going to sign the tender by June 15. The move to make is to sign the tender with some time left before the draft so that you maybe can get some trade discussion going while teams still have needs and draft picks to trade.


Agreed, if he wants to go to NO he's probably better off signing the tender and doing so before the draft. The Saints basically said as much.
 

Eddie Jurak

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You're right, IMO, and he was never realistically holding out. And the Patriots have been meticulously careful in this area, so I do not believe in any handshake deals.

He signs the tender, guarantees himself that money, opens the door for a trade, but will live up to the contract if one cannot be made. In the meantime, he sends a clear signal he wants to go -- *no voluntary workouts for me.*

He is playing his hand well.
If the goal is to get out of town, then, yes, he is. If the goal is to maximize earnings, maybe not - his best bet then it to hit UFA status in 2018.
 

Van Everyman

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He signed he tender this week, yes? People keep speaking of it conditionally...

I will say, and to EJ's point, I'm not entirely sure I understand why Butler seems potentially hell bent on getting his contract this year. Yes he's not a spring chicken. And yes, there's always the chance he gets hurt. But it seems clear after all is said and done that the best path toward the big payday he wants is playing this season out for the Patriots. Why he feels urgency to push the issue now still, after everything, doesn't really make sense to me unless he has some reason to believe he's not going to get a better deal as an UFA.
 

dcmissle

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If the goal is to get out of town, then, yes, he is. If the goal is to maximize earnings, maybe not - his best bet then it to hit UFA status in 2018.
But they have the theoretical threat of the franchise tag, which this year was $15.7 million for corners.

I don't believe they would tag him at that level, but a good way of ensuring that he comes correct for the 2017 season would be to give him a wink n' nod assurance of that. It won't cost them anything but likely prod him to do things like participate in voluntary workouts.

This isn't a huge problem as these things go -- either trade him if you can get more than how you value 1 year of his service or make next season a good season for everyone.
 

Stitch01

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He signed he tender this week, yes? People keep speaking of it conditionally...

I will say, and to EJ's point, I'm not entirely sure I understand why Butler seems potentially hell bent on getting his contract this year. Yes he's not a spring chicken. And yes, there's always the chance he gets hurt. But it seems clear after all is said and done that the best path toward the big payday he wants is playing this season out for the Patriots. Why he feels urgency to push the issue now still, after everything, doesn't really make sense to me unless he has some reason to believe he's not going to get a better deal as an UFA.
Also possible he just doesnt want to be here anymore (he busted his ass for three years then, in his view, the team wouldnt pay him what he was worth but gave Gilmore a zillion dollars. Pretty human for that to leave a bad taste in his mouth) and views the trade off of making a little less total money worth the benefits of being somewhere else and getting paid more starting immediately. Or possible he just wants to make a statement about this being a business and then will move on and play out the year. Who knows?

But regardless of his end goal here, no real reason for him to attend voluntary workouts.
 

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If the goal is to get out of town, then, yes, he is. If the goal is to maximize earnings, maybe not - his best bet then it to hit UFA status in 2018.
Skipping voluntary workouts works towards both causes at the moment.
I'll disagree with that. What drives his market value up is teams demanding his services. By skipping offseason workouts, he's risking being thought of as petulant and whiny about his contract situation, and not worth a bother by a GM who might be considering adding some marginal money to a deal (e.g., thinking "he'll just hold out of training camp 2-3 years in, anyway"). Expressing his desire to get a long-term deal from a team, in private, while also busting his ass and being a good soldier in public, would be the way to maximize earnings.
 

Stitch01

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I think skipping voluntary workouts will have exactly zero effect on his next contract. There are things he could do that raise eyebrows, but skipping voluntary workouts isnt really one them.

Pop quiz, which Patriot free agent signings attended or skipped voluntary workouts last offseason?
 

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I think it's just risk mitigation for Butler to skip the voluntary workouts to avoid any injury risk. He's a veteran in the system now so it's not like he has to learn any new plays/formations. It's also an element of the small amount of leverage he has left if his goal is to push the Patriots to the negotiating table.
 

InstaFace

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wait, avoiding injury risk by skipping workouts? But, you know, playing ~4 preseason games and 16+ regular season games of gridiron football, that's the safe part, right?

And what part of this is going to "push the Patriots to the negotiating table"? You have a passing familiarity with Bill Belichick's negotiating style, yes? Machiavelli would have said "that's fucked up, man"