2017 Patriots Defense

tims4wins

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Indeed. Jacksonville's D can win a game on the road in the playoffs. They are aggressive, fast, opportunistic, and relentless. Bortles is not a good QB, but the defense could overcome that with a couple of lucky plays/breaks. If the Pats do meet them in the playoffs, it won't be easy. But I would love to see that matchup.
In a way reminds me of the Rex Jets with Sanchize. Scary.
 

DJnVa

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Indeed. Jacksonville's D can win a game on the road in the playoffs. They are aggressive, fast, opportunistic, and relentless. Bortles is not a good QB, but the defense could overcome that with a couple of lucky plays/breaks. If the Pats do meet them in the playoffs, it won't be easy. But I would love to see that matchup.
Yeah, I think the Pats would win, but I'd rather Jax wins that division and gets away from the #6 seed, although I'd guess the Ravens don't catch them. I'd like to see Jax-Pit in the second round.
 
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Reverend

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DVOA says league average defense after week five.
Which basically mirrors last year - they had a -1.8% which also ranked 16th, and they led the league in PPG against like they are doing now.
BB has said in the past that he thinks that defense is hurt more by the reduced preseason practices than the offense.

It’s not necessarily the case that his Ds would be hurt in terms of early season performance more relatively than other teams’ defenses, but it seems worth mentioning given how this progression seems to keep recurring.
 

nothumb

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Not so fast. There's a decent chance the reason Freeny is back is that Kyle Van Noy is worse off than we thought.
True, though "worse off" could mean anything from "needs a few less reps" all the way up to "is literally dead," so I'm not reading too much into it. Even with Van Noy they are a but thin there and there just aren't many guys out there who know the system at this stage of the year. Freeny could easily be back on the street Tuesday.
 

Leather

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So when a player is "informed of his release", how does that work? Does BB invite a guy into his office and say "Hey, it's been great, but we're moving in a different direction."? Or does some lower level coach do it? Or does the agent just get a call who calls the player?

Just something I've always wondered about. Not for stars, but just for rank-and-file guys.
 

Marciano490

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On Hard Knocks, it's always the HC, no? I don't see why it'd be any different for the guys who made and stayed on the team than those cut during camp.
 

bakahump

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I know nothing about the process. But it seems like part of the reason the HC gets big money. Plus if anyone is a "Buck Stops here" guy its BB.
Seems like most Players have always spoken well of BB and the Pats after (*Cough Ventrone *Cough) and been willing to come back to a "tenuous" job the next time the Pats called . So despite being a bitter disapointment I always assumed that they must have handled stuff like this with as much class as possible.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Given how many of these guys end up coming back sooner or later (Francois and Freeney both being examples) I'd guess BB is pretty careful about how it is done.

In some cases, RJF this year seems like one, the message is probably "we like you and expect to hvae a slot for you next week if x gets healthy" or "we like you and you'll be first DL we bring back if you are stil on market" or whatever.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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In one of the Football Life docs, didn’t BB recall being kind of the executioner on the old Giants teams when he was an assistant? Or am I making that up?

This might also not just be straight cut. It could be a shadow roster type move, which I’d imagine he definitely handles himself.
 
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kelpapa

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So when a player is "informed of his release", how does that work? Does BB invite a guy into his office and say "Hey, it's been great, but we're moving in a different direction."? Or does some lower level coach do it? Or does the agent just get a call who calls the player?

Just something I've always wondered about. Not for stars, but just for rank-and-file guys.
In hard knocks a lower level assistant tells the player the gm wants to see him in their office, and they need to bring all of their team stuff and the playbook. The player knows it's coming at that point. The coach is in the office for some of them.

I think the guys that make the squad get a call on cut down day IIRC.

Edit: looks like for the rams, it was not the gm. I didn't watch that one.
 

eustis22

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I have 12 on the "How Many Times Does Elandon Roberts Overplay His Gap Leaving a Hole For Human Rain Delay Bell to Run Thru".

Why no, I am not having a good feeling about this game at all, why do you ask?
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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I have 12 on the "How Many Times Does Elandon Roberts Overplay His Gap Leaving a Hole For Human Rain Delay Bell to Run Thru".

Why no, I am not having a good feeling about this game at all, why do you ask?
If last year's playoff game was any indication, they should do a good job bottling up Bell. Prior to his injury, the Pats did an excellent job waiting him out.

The one concern I have is that Branch is out this game. I know he's been a disappointment, but he was excellent against the Steelers last year, and he was key in slowing Bell down early.

Still, if they line can control their lanes for a bit, the D should bottle up Bell. Frankly. I'd be more concerned with Ben throwing for 500 yards.
 

loshjott

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If last year's playoff game was any indication, they should do a good job bottling up Bell. Prior to his injury, the Pats did an excellent job waiting him out.

The one concern I have is that Branch is out this game. I know he's been a disappointment, but he was excellent against the Steelers last year, and he was key in slowing Bell down early.

Still, if they line can control their lanes for a bit, the D should bottle up Bell. Frankly. I'd be more concerned with Ben throwing for 500 yards.
The last time Le'Veon Bell faced the Patriots, in the AFC Championship Game in January, he was injured on the Steelers' second offensive snap.

Hard to say they did well before s the injury. He left the game after six carries.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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The last time Le'Veon Bell faced the Patriots, in the AFC Championship Game in January, he was injured on the Steelers' second offensive snap.

Hard to say they did well before s the injury. He left the game after six carries.
Weird. Its pretty impressive that he got 6 carries in a game where he only saw 2 offensive snaps...

Rewatch the first quarter. They were incredibly patient with him, and struggled immediately when Williams came in and utilized a one-cut game instead of Bells waiting game. I'm perfectly comfortable with my assessment.
 

Byrdbrain

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My main concern is what they do when Bell goes out for a pass. Last weeks pregame plan of Roberts taking him sure as hell won't work. I think we'll see a light box with Chung playing LB and taking Bell in man.
If the Steelers want to run then they are welcome to do it.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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My main concern is what they do when Bell goes out for a pass. Last weeks pregame plan of Roberts taking him sure as hell won't work. I think we'll see a light box with Chung playing LB and taking Bell in man.
If the Steelers want to run then they are welcome to do it.
This exactly. If Bell kills us, it'll be as a pass-catcher.

The other concern is the secondary receivers for the steelers. Schuster and Bryant are significant upgrades over the shit they rolled out behind Antonio Brown last year. Belichick dared the secondary receivers to beat them last year, and they couldn't do it. They dropped some balls, and they couldn't get open. That could be a bigger issue in this game.
 

tims4wins

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Eh I am concerned about his ability to run it. They clearly have no problem giving him the ball 30+ times. They may just chew up the clock, grind out yards, give it to Bell 35 times, keep Brady off the field. I could actually see a lower scoring game than some project but with very few possessions and punts.
 

dbn

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I'll preface this post by saying that most of the time I think I see something wrong about the Patriots, they pleasantly surprise me wrong soon afterwards.

That said, after last week I also do fear RBs in the passing game against our LBs. Serious questions: who are their best healthy LBs? Roberts and...? Weren't they playing a lot of 2 LB sets against Miami, and was that a scheme thing or a "we don't have any good LBs not on the DL" thing? Again: serious question, not snark.

edit: Mia seemed to recognize the NEP didn't have any available LBs that could cover a split-out RB in the passing game. I'm not sure how that gets fixed, but (thank goodness) I'm not the NEP's head coach.
 

Bowhemian

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I'll preface this post by saying that most of the time I think I see something wrong about the Patriots, they pleasantly surprise me wrong soon afterwards.

That said, after last week I also do fear RBs in the passing game against our LBs. Serious questions: who are their best healthy LBs? Roberts and...? Weren't they playing a lot of 2 LB sets against Miami, and was that a scheme thing or a "we don't have any good LBs not on the DL" thing? Again: serious question, not snark.

edit: Mia seemed to recognize the NEP didn't have any available LBs that could cover a split-out RB in the passing game. I'm not sure how that gets fixed, but (thank goodness) I'm not the NEP's head coach.
It's a tough problem for the Pats, no question. They could play a dime defense with an extra defensive back, but that leaves them vulnerable for the run plays. I suspect that the Pats will respect the Steelers run game, and be heavy up front running their normal 3-4/4-3
 

alydar

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Well, held Pittsburgh to 24, including one short field following the Brady pick. Of course, no A.B. in the second half. I'd love to see some stats on their 4th quarter play vs. the rest of the game, they do seem to get stops when they really need it. Which makes all the easy 3rd downs for the rest of the game all the more infuriating.
 

Super Nomario

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Well, held Pittsburgh to 24, including one short field following the Brady pick. Of course, no A.B. in the second half. I'd love to see some stats on their 4th quarter play vs. the rest of the game, they do seem to get stops when they really need it. Which makes all the easy 3rd downs for the rest of the game all the more infuriating.
The Steelers only had 9 drives so 24 points is really pretty awful.
 

EricFeczko

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The Steelers only had 9 drives so 24 points is really pretty awful.
While bad, this may be understated.

Antonio Brown was hurt right before the field goal in the 2nd quarter. I'm not sure if this was due to an adjustment, the injury itself, chance, or some combination of the three, but the patriots defense allowed 3/4 drives to score in the first half (2/3 effectively prior to the injury), and only 1/5 in the second.
 

alydar

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The Steelers only had 9 drives so 24 points is really pretty awful.
Don't disagree, but second half:
3 punts (including one three-and-out and one 5 play drive), 1 INT, 1 TD

McCourty doesn't get blocked by his own guy on the JJSS (is that the right abbreviation?) massive play and we're probably saying the D did well rather than got lucky on a Tomlin / Ben brain fart.
 

dbn

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The Steelers only had 9 drives so 24 points is really pretty awful.
True, but SSS.

I just did a bootstrap resampling of their defensive drives in tonight's game, and the 1-sigma confidence intervals for their points allowed per drive tonight is 1.56 - 3.78 (so 14.0 - 34.0 points, total). The current league average is 1.87 points per drive. Tonight the NEP gave up 2.67 pts/drive.

24 points on 9 drives isn't good, but the sample is so small that it's in the "one play goes different and it's so much worse/better" category.

edit: bootstrapping might not be the best method for putting appropriate numbers on the confidence intervals in this circumstance, as it doesn't account for things like opponent, starting field positions, etc., but those things only increase the uncertainty so I think the numbers above are a lower--limit on the "one-sigma" uncertainty.
 
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bigq

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Despite Bell seemingly running wild and catching all kinds of balls the Pats held the Steelers to just 7 points in the 2nd half. Of course AB was not on the field but holding a very good offense to 24 points is not bad.
 

loshjott

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Weird. Its pretty impressive that he got 6 carries in a game where he only saw 2 offensive snaps...

Rewatch the first quarter. They were incredibly patient with him, and struggled immediately when Williams came in and utilized a one-cut game instead of Bells waiting game. I'm perfectly comfortable with my assessment.
He was injured on the 2nd snap. Nowhere does it say he left the game at that point. They could be "incredibly patient" with him because he was ineffective on his remaining 5 carries after the injury - before Pittsburgh shut him down.
 

Toe Nash

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Sorry everyone, I've tried to see the bright side all year but this defense is bad. There are good players in the secondary but the front 7 is very poor and on the whole the D is extremely vulnerable. They're generally not good at tackling, they can't set the edge, and somehow the secondary tends to perform worse than they should.

But I think it might be better with Van Noy healthy (I'm done with Roberts) and it probably doesn't matter if Gronk is healthy. They will score enough on offense and can probably stop a few drives by making them go the whole field and eventually getting a negative play.
 
Apr 7, 2006
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Sorry everyone, I've tried to see the bright side all year but this defense is bad. There are good players in the secondary but the front 7 is very poor and on the whole the D is extremely vulnerable. They're generally not good at tackling, they can't set the edge, and somehow the secondary tends to perform worse than they should.

But I think it might be better with Van Noy healthy (I'm done with Roberts) and it probably doesn't matter if Gronk is healthy. They will score enough on offense and can probably stop a few drives by making them go the whole field and eventually getting a negative play.
Co-sign on this, times a thousand. The D was already kind of bad, with some good spurts in the middle of the season. And, yes, it has improved, for sure, but at this point a porous D has given way to an injured and porous D. It's "win in shoot outs" and hope Van Noy and Branch come back and stabilize that front 7 into a unit that is at least slightly below average.
 

dbn

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Their LBs right now are Elandon Roberts, Marquis Flowers, an old Jet, and some guy who sounds like a Dickens character. I know I'm being über-super-duper "glass is half full"-ly right now, but I think they are doing okay considering...
 
Apr 7, 2006
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Yes, that's true, but that caveat doesn't mean much in terms of on field production. I think we'd just feel better if we had guys coming back to take over for those players. As of now, it's just Kyle Van Noy, who has done well this year, but isn't exactly a savior. The D wasn't great even when the numbers were.
 

dbn

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Oh, I hear you. The defense is a huge worry and will be a liability in the playoffs. I'm only saying that sometimes sh!t happens, and this year it has.
 

Marciano490

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The good news, I suppose, is there don't appear to be any prodigious offenses they'd face in the postseason. They already beat Pitt, and always seem to. Jax, Bal, Buff, KC and LA aren't scary, though obviously the Chiefs manage to blow us up every now and then.

In the NFC, Foles looked good yesterday, so Philly might still be an offensive threat, but their running game makes them a bit one dimensional. Minnesota is very well balanced and the Rams have a ton of talent, but I can't imagine Bill losing to a second year QB. The Saints can put up points, especially in a dome, but we have a good track record of handling them when need be.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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The defense was pretty bad yesterday but I think the doom and gloom is a little overstated. The Steelers played really well on offense, especially Roethlisberger, and they had a good gameplan, with some creative routes (that fake wheel to Bell, a slow developing cross where they hit the blocking tight end after play action, etc). A lot of it also just came down to third downs and their receivers making some big plays against Gilmore in the first half in spots that are pretty low percentage overall. When they've got 3rd and 8 and they're throwing a 40 yard pass to Bryant covered by Gilmore (note also that when Ben released the ball he has no clue that Bryant is going to gain as much of a step on Gilmore as he did, its just a toss it up and pray throw), you've got to like that situation overall. Same deal with the Bryant TD, you've got the QB backpeddling and lofting it up and if the ball isn't exactly right and the receiver hadn't created enough separation then its a FG not a TD.

I don't see much reason to change the evaluation from where it was a few weeks ago, which is that the defense is fairly mediocre but good enough as long the offense is playing at a very high level. My big worry is that the offense isn't going to keep playing at a very high level.
 
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RedOctober3829

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The defense was pretty bad yesterday but I think the doom and gloom is a little overstated. The Steelers played really well on offense, especially Roethlisberger, and they had a good gameplan, with some creative routes (that fake wheel to Bell, a slow developing cross where they hit the blocking tight end after play action, etc). A lot of it also just came down to third downs and their receivers making some big plays against Gilmore in the first half in spots that are pretty low percentage overall. When they've got 3rd and 8 and they're throwing a 40 yard pass to Bryant covered by Gilmore, you've got to like that situation overall. Same deal with the Bryant TD, you've got the QB backpeddling and lofting it up and if the ball isn't exactly right and the receiver hadn't created enough separation then its a FG not a TD.

I don't see much reason to change the evaluation from where it was a few weeks ago, which is that the defense is fairly mediocre but good enough as long the offense is playing at a very high level.
I also think the defense will be better when Van Noy and Branch return. All in all, at the end of the day they gave up 24 points to a team who averages that amount.
 

Garshaparra

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Oh no question, Roberts is overwhelmed situationally, clearly having to play above his head, and Van Noy has looked much better. Buffalo will be fighting for a playoff spot this week though, and McCoy is no easier. I actually though the D-Line looked fine, rarely pushed around, only struggling on the edge (which Branch doesn't handle regardless).
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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I also think the defense will be better when Van Noy and Branch return. All in all, at the end of the day they gave up 24 points to a team who averages that amount.
Yup, agreed. It wasn't a very good day but it wasn't a total disaster either.

If anybody can find some statistics on pressures, I'd be interested to see those. We did't have any lightning quick wipeout sacks but I thought we did a decent job getting some pressure on Ben and moving him off his spot before he could really go through his progression, despite rarely blitzing. He made some good throws on the run or backpeddling and you just have to tip your cap to those.
 

Super Nomario

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I also think the defense will be better when Van Noy and Branch return. All in all, at the end of the day they gave up 24 points to a team who averages that amount.
Yeah, but a) without Antonio Brown and b) in only 9 drives. The Steelers average 11 drives a game; giving up their season average on 22% fewer drives without their best skill player is lousy, even before you get to how close they came to scoring 31.
 

Ed Hillel

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I wouldn’t count on Branch saving much of anything (he’s been pretty bad) and I don’t think the interior DL is bad at all anyway, I think it’s pretty good. Their issues are mainly at LB and a lack of depth at DE, but it’s probably more a result of awful injury luck than roster construction (Hightower, McClellin, Rivers, Van Noy, Langi). Van Noy is a big upgrade at this point, which kind of speaks to how bad it’s gotten there, but I think it’s survivable because of the offense and Special Teams.

Also, I will echo that Big Ben was great yesterday. On the long diving catch and TD Gilmore had no chance, Ben placed the ball absolutely perfectly. Nobody stops those. The third down D is still abysmal, but if they can get teams to 3rd and long, they should be good in the end.

Jordan Richards, though...
 

RedOctober3829

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Yeah, but a) without Antonio Brown and b) in only 9 drives. The Steelers average 11 drives a game; giving up their season average on 22% fewer drives without their best skill player is lousy, even before you get to how close they came to scoring 31.
After Brown went out on the 3rd drive, the gameplan for the Steelers noticeably changed to a much different approach. They slowed the game down and went to more of a run-based attack. McCourty after the game on ESPN noted this change and said they had to go to alignments and calls that they did not practice during the week. The execution on 3rd down was not good regardless but this should be noted.
 

Super Nomario

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After Brown went out on the 3rd drive, the gameplan for the Steelers noticeably changed to a much different approach. They slowed the game down and went to more of a run-based attack. McCourty after the game on ESPN noted this change and said they had to go to alignments and calls that they did not practice during the week. The execution on 3rd down was not good regardless but this should be noted.
You can't seriously be arguing that Brown going out made things more challenging for the Pats D, can you?