2017 Patriots FA & Trades Thread

Dr. Gonzo

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Correct on the benching for Robey-Coleman. Article from the Bills SB Nation page.

Robey-Coleman enjoyed a strong start to the season and has one interception, two defensive touchdowns and four pass breakups on the year. But he surrendered long touchdowns in Week 8 against the Patriots and in Week 9 against the Seahawks. Robey-Coleman was also hit with a big pass interference call on Doug Baldwin.
 

Hoodie Sleeves

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If Peterson hasn't fixed his fumbling problems, I doubt that Belichick would want anything to do with him.
Peterson's fumbling issues are largely overstated.

Peterson has averaged a fumble ever 68 touches over his career.
LGBT has averaged a fumble every 74 touches in his career.

Kevin Faulk averaged one every 51 touches for his career.

Ezekial Elliot fumbled once every 71 touches this year.

He fumbled at a much higher rate his first 3 years (20 fumbles in 900 carries), but the assumption at this point should be that the actual distribution of the fumbles is random, not that he fixed something.


I don't think they'll be in on him - as I think someone will offer him more money than he's worth, but he'd be a big upgrade over LGBT, even in his older, much less effective than before form.
 

Saints Rest

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AP's definition of "accepting less money" and the Pats' may be widely different. I think the Pats would like to see someone fill that role in the neighborhood of what they paid LGBT or Dion Lewis (i.e. $1M - 1.5M). I bet AP is thinking along the lines of $6-8M (putting him in line with guys like
(Avg per year incl signing bonus over the contract life, contact status)
LeSean McCoy Bills $8,010,000 2020 UFA
Jonathan Stewart Panthers $7,300,000 2018 Void
Doug Martin Buccaneers $7,150,000 2021 UFA
Jamaal Charles Chiefs $6,937,500 2017 SFA
Lamar Miller Texans $6,500,000 2020 UFA
Chris Ivory Jaguars $6,400,000 2021 UFA

Now most of those guys' actual salaries for 2017 are in the $2M-3M range, but I don't foresee AP signing without a decent signing bonus.
 

bankshot1

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Quick question re free-agency.

My understanding is that if the Pats slap a 1st round tender on Malcolm Butler they can either match another team's offer and resign Butler, or decline that offer, but get a 1st round draft choice.

The question: Does the signing team give up that pick (for example the Lions giving up its 1st round pick #21) or are the Pats awarded a compensatory pick at the end of the 1st round (for example the 33rd pick if Butler is the highest ranked FA signed)?
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Quick question re free-agency.

My understanding is that if the Pats slap a 1st round tender on Malcolm Butler they can either match another team's offer and resign Butler, or decline that offer, but get a 1st round draft choice.

The question: Does the signing team give up that pick (for example the Lions giving up its 1st round pick #21) or are the Pats awarded a compensatory pick at the end of the 1st round (for example the 33rd pick if Butler is the highest ranked FA signed)?
The signing team gives up their pick, otherwise there would be no reason for teams not to go wild signing these guys.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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The signing team gives up their pick, otherwise there would be no reason for teams not to go wild signing these guys.
And if a team were to not have a pick - say because they deflated footballs - I'm assuming they couldn't attempt to sign players tendered with the first round tag?
 

bankshot1

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Thanks JZ

But if the Pats did not slap a 1st roud tender on Butler they would only receive at best a 3rd round compensatory pick, and a pick not lost by the signing team?
 

jsinger121

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Thanks JZ

But if the Pats did not slap a 1st roud tender on Butler they would only receive at best a 3rd round compensatory pick, and a pick not lost by the signing team?
There is a 1st round tender, a second round tender and a low round tender. Since Butler was undrafted if they offered the low round tender they get nothing in return.
 

Mooch

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Peterson's fumbling issues are largely overstated.

Peterson has averaged a fumble ever 68 touches over his career.
LGBT has averaged a fumble every 74 touches in his career.

Kevin Faulk averaged one every 51 touches for his career.

Ezekial Elliot fumbled once every 71 touches this year.

He fumbled at a much higher rate his first 3 years (20 fumbles in 900 carries), but the assumption at this point should be that the actual distribution of the fumbles is random, not that he fixed something.


I don't think they'll be in on him - as I think someone will offer him more money than he's worth, but he'd be a big upgrade over LGBT, even in his older, much less effective than before form.
Two years ago, Peterson's fumble issues returned (fumble rate was one every 46 touches in 2015), to the point where he spent a lot of time training in Brazilian Ju Jitsu to get over his fumbling issues last offseason: http://www.bjjee.com/articles/adrian-peterson-trains-jiu-jitsu-to-fix-fumbles/
 

Saints Rest

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Thanks JZ

But if the Pats did not slap a 1st roud tender on Butler they would only receive at best a 3rd round compensatory pick, and a pick not lost by the signing team?
But, if I understand it right, the Tender is a contract so the options would be:
  1. Butler accepts the tender and plays for the Pats in 2017 under a one-year contract with salary pegged to certain parameters set by the CBA (pending which level tender).
  2. Butler signs elsewhere and the Pats receive that team's draft pick the following year (2018 draft).
If option 1 happens, we would be having some version of this discussion again next year.
 

Mooch

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I'd love to see the Pats make a run at Mike Gillislee. The Bills gave him the RFA "original round" tender which means it would only cost the Pats a 5th round pick in comp. Given Buffalo's tough cap situation (41 roster spots open with only $24M in cap space) and a lot of higher priority free agents they need to retain, they probably can't afford to pay Gillislee. Watching him over the past couple of years, he fits the classic one-cut, downhill running style with far more speed than Blount. He's not an every-down back by any stretch but for a guy that you could get for $2.5-$3M per year plus the 5th round pick, he's a valuable asset and a good fit for the Pats.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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I'd love to see the Pats make a run at Mike Gillislee. The Bills gave him the RFA "original round" tender which means it would only cost the Pats a 5th round pick in comp. Given Buffalo's tough cap situation (41 roster spots open with only $24M in cap space) and a lot of higher priority free agents they need to retain, they probably can't afford to pay Gillislee. Watching him over the past couple of years, he fits the classic one-cut, downhill running style with far more speed than Blount. He's not an every-down back by any stretch but for a guy that you could get for $2.5-$3M per year plus the 5th round pick, he's a valuable asset and a good fit for the Pats.
He carved up the Pats last season. One fumble in 154 career carries. Not much tread on the tires. Seems like a good fit for the Pats' multi-headed rushing attack.
 

NortheasternPJ

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I'd love to see the Pats make a run at Mike Gillislee. The Bills gave him the RFA "original round" tender which means it would only cost the Pats a 5th round pick in comp. Given Buffalo's tough cap situation (41 roster spots open with only $24M in cap space) and a lot of higher priority free agents they need to retain, they probably can't afford to pay Gillislee. Watching him over the past couple of years, he fits the classic one-cut, downhill running style with far more speed than Blount. He's not an every-down back by any stretch but for a guy that you could get for $2.5-$3M per year plus the 5th round pick, he's a valuable asset and a good fit for the Pats.
I agree, I'd do that deal quickly.

I'd love if the Pats started Hogan, Woods and Gillislee next season. I'm pretty sure Western NY would implode.
 

shoosh77

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From Reiss:

The Patriots have informed restricted free-agent OT Cameron Fleming he will be tendered at the original-round level ($1.797m). Fleming was the team's swing tackle in 2016 and was praised by Bill Belichick for one-game fill-in stints for Nate Solder (left tackle) and Marcus Cannon (right tackle). He entered the NFL with the Patriots as a fourth-round draft choice out of Stanford in 2014.
 

Hoodie Sleeves

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Two years ago, Peterson's fumble issues returned (fumble rate was one every 46 touches in 2015), to the point where he spent a lot of time training in Brazilian Ju Jitsu to get over his fumbling issues last offseason: http://www.bjjee.com/articles/adrian-peterson-trains-jiu-jitsu-to-fix-fumbles/
FO did a pretty large study on fumble rate a couple years back, and found that fumble distribution is largely luck. The overriding rate is meaningful (and guys like Curtis Martin who fumbled once every 136 touches over roughly 4000 touches, during a time when RB generally fumbled much more than they do now, clearly have a skill), but year to year data is pretty much meaningless.

It's possible that something changed with Peterson in '15, but it's more likely that he just had an unlucky year and internalized it.
And if a team were to not have a pick - say because they deflated footballs - I'm assuming they couldn't attempt to sign players tendered with the first round tag?
There doesn't seem to be any language to handle that situation in the CBA - which is surprising. So it probably falls under commissioner's discretion.

There are some situations where it defaults to next year's pick:
(j) Draft Choice Compensation under this Article shall be due in that League Year’s Draft unless the Offer Sheet is received by the Prior Club later than two days before that League Year’s Draft, in which case Draft Choice Compensation shall be due in the following League Year’s Draft.
 

RedOctober3829

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There's a lot of noise around Adrian Peterson and the Patriots. Karen Guregian says he'd take a "team-friendly" contract to play in New England while Mike Garofolo says "nothing going on" with Peterson and the Patriots.

Tom Curran would support a DeSean Jackson prove-it deal.
 

E5 Yaz

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There's a lot of noise around Adrian Peterson and the Patriots. Karen Guregian says he'd take a "team-friendly" contract to play in New England while Mike Garofolo says "nothing going on" with Peterson and the Patriots.
Tedy Bruschi said this morning that he sees an AP fit.
 

heavyde050

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I'm sure I'm not alone in thinking that BB might prefer the first-rounder should anyone offer Butler a deal
That is definitely a possibility.
What scares me is that BB would keep Jimmy (instead of trading for another first rounder) but let Butler go to get the extra pick.
I could be wrong, but Butler is much more important to the 2017 Pats SB title defense (going back to back) than Jimmy.
 

Zososoxfan

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DeSean Jackson is about to get huge money. I'm not sure he thinks he needs to "prove" anything to anyone.
I don't agree with this. Jackson was 4th on the Redskins with targets (Garcon, Reed, Crowder) and wasn't top 50 league-wide. He's 30 years old and while he did have a good season (lots of big chunk plays, 1000 yards), I just don't see anyone paying him top dollar.
 

Hatcher Steals Home

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E5 Yaz

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I should say I started thinking about a Butler deal today when watching NFL Insiders. Scheffer and Werder had two boards up -- one listing all the pending free agents; the other listing players who could be traded. Under the Patriots, it listed JG and Butler. They never got around to discussing that half of the board -- beyond Cooks -- but it made me think that Butler might be available.

If someone were to sign him to an offer sheet, getting a first-round pick for a UFA is the sort of transaction that might have some appeal at 1PP ... and I say it not wanting to see such a thing happen
 

BigSoxFan

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I should say I started thinking about a Butler deal today when watching NFL Insiders. Scheffer and Werder had two boards up -- one listing all the pending free agents; the other listing players who could be traded. Under the Patriots, it listed JG and Butler. They never got around to discussing that half of the board -- beyond Cooks -- but it made me think that Butler might be available.

If someone were to sign him to an offer sheet, getting a first-round pick for a UFA is the sort of transaction that might have some appeal at 1PP ... and I say it not wanting to see such a thing happen
You are subconsciously trying to clear the way for Cyrus to get the #1 corner job. Just admit it already.
 

E5 Yaz

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Mike Reiss ESPN Staff Writer
One important note on news of CB Malcolm Butler's first-round restricted free-agent tender: The sides have not had recent talks on an extension.
 

Willie Clay's Big Play

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Mike Reiss ESPN Staff Writer
One important note on news of CB Malcolm Butler's first-round restricted free-agent tender: The sides have not had recent talks on an extension.
Recent history shows BB allowing the the league to set the value on their FA's. This strikes me as something not too surprising considering 1 yr of Butler at > 4 mil is great value. Sure, there's risk involved if they get to this time next year without any progress, but it aligns with the strategy shown recently.
 

lexrageorge

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There's not a lot of urgency for the Pats and Butler to sign a longer term extension. The Pats have offered Butler the first round tender to ensure that they get something in the event that Butler receives an unmatchable contract offer from another team. Teams usually do not sign exclusive rights free agents, so the chances of that happening are relatively low. Meanwhile, the Pats can spend time exploring the free agent market, which will determine how they can allocate their cap space. Once the free agent frenzy dust settles, the Pats and Butler can talk extension.

I don't agree that Belichick will just let Butler walk if he's offered a contract. I realize that such is a minority view here, but I honestly believe Belichick understands the value of a shut down corner, and knows what he has in Butler. But, like everyone else, there is a price point at which the Pats will walk away.

The tender was not "leaked". The press release is standard operating procedure for the league.