2017 Penn State Football

SoxJox

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Not really 2017 related, but a good story nonetheless to start off the season.

For those who may have heard of John Urschel, former Penn State and and now former Ravens OL, retiring after 3 years at the age of 26 to complete his PhD in mathematics at MIT.

Former Penn State football offensive lineman John Urschel retires from NFL

Former Penn State OL John Urschel retires from the NFL at 26 years old

He was a 4.0 student who graduated in 3 years, taught college-level courses and earned two master's degrees during his time at Penn State.
 

canderson

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If USC doesn't win the national title (which I think they will), Barkley very well may win the Heisman. Penn State's o-line could be very very good for once.
 
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SoxJox

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I must be losing it in my college football awareness. Bradley? Surely you mean Barkley. Autocorrect is a bear. :confused:

But yes, I agree that the Lions' OL should be solid this year. They now have experience and, most importantly...depth. And the team can expect defenses to stack against Saquon. Unfortunately, or fortunately - depending on POV, McSorley has some loaded weapons on the outside. Or McSorley's run threat himself, which became a noticeable difference in the Minnesota game and afterwards last year (the start of the 9-straight run). And Penn State can bring a dual back set with Miles Sander (who was the #1 rated RB in the country for the 2016 recruiting class - the offense will insert him more to be sure), plus Marcus Allen and Andre Robinson as capable fills. And then, one of the leading TEs - Mike Gesiki returning after an awesome season in 2016 (plus two 4* F/RSF behind him) . Lots of options.

And, not to be overlooked, special teams, including solid PK Tyler Davis: 18 straight FGs, tied PSU single-season record with 62 PAT; tied the Big Ten single-season kick scoring record with 128 points, equaling the mark set by Ohio State's Sean Nuernberger in 2014. He'll assume KO duties with the sad departure of lovable and likable Joey Julius.

And the very solid defense lost very little from last year (snippets: 1) OSU 24-21; 2) stuff on 4th and 1 in the B1G Championship game vs. Whiskey with less than a minute to go and the Badgers near the 40 yard line to win 38-31- after trailing 28-7)

I'm excited.
 
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canderson

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Oops, damn you autocorrect,

I think they lose @ OSU but don't really see any other games that they shouldn't be favored in.
 
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terrynever

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Ha, I was a bit off there (McSorely came out from nowhere).

I think him being injured could have them drop 3 games but I think that running game will be something to see.
Tommy Stevens is a stud backup. His running ability gives the defense fits in practice, and he made several big plays in limited time last year off the bench. A McSorley injury does not ruin this team. It just makes them a little different.

Why Stevens did not transfer back home this past offseason is a mystery.

http://www.pennlive.com/pennstatefootball/index.ssf/2017/07/penn_state_tight_end_mike_gesi_3.html
 

SoxJox

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Here's the 2017 schedule and my predictions:

Sept. 2: vs. Akron (W) (1-0) (52-0 W; 1-0)
Sept. 9: vs. Pittsburgh (W) (2-0) (33-14 W; 2-0)
Sept. 16: vs. Georgia State (W) (3-0) (56-0 W; 3-0)
Sept. 23: at Iowa (W) (4-0) (21-19 W; 4-0)
Sept. 30: vs. Indiana (W) (5-0) (45-14 W; 5-0)
Oct. 7: at Northwestern (W) (6-0) (31-7 W; 6-0)
Oct. 14: BYE (W) :D
Oct. 21: vs. Michigan (L) (6-1), although this is a toss up with 2 weeks to prepare. (42-13 W; 7-0)
Oct. 28: at Ohio State (L) (6-2) (38-39 L; 7-1)
Nov. 4: at Michigan State (W) (7-2) (27-24 L; 7-2)
Nov. 11: vs. Rutgers (W) (8-2) (35-6 W; 8-2)
Nov. 18: vs. Nebraska (W) (9-2) (56-44 W; 9-2)
Nov. 25: at Maryland (W) (10-2) (66-3 W; 10-2)

Do not make B1G Championship Game based on loses to Wolverines and Tree Nuts, unless something quirky happens outside of Penn State's control, like underperformance by UM or some unexpected outcome(s) (perhaps QB injury, although I'm not hoping for that) with OSU.

Dec. 29. Cotton Bowl vs. Oklahoma State. (W) (11-2)
Dec. 30 Fiesta Bowl vs Washington (W) (11-2) (35-28 W; 11-2)
 
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terrynever

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Not tested yet after three games but one thing is apparent -- this is the fastest Penn State team ever. Not just Barkley. Up and down the lineup, skill positions and in the secondary. Second team, too, in Barkley's backup, Miles Sanders, and backup receivers. Both the starting QB and his backup are runners and throwers.
The defensive line may lack depth, a weakness that will play out over the league season, which begins Saturday in Iowa City against the 3-0 Hawkeyes.
Let the games begin for real.
 

SoxJox

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This is kinda a neat story about how Joe Moorhead developed his current offensive approach - even brings in evaluating Jimmy Garoppolo when he was at Eastern Illinois.

We probably watched [EIU QB Jimmy Garoppolo] 15 times. Our staff got into an argument over whether they were actually reading a safety in the run game or not.
 

terrynever

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Sanders is a good start. Barkley may win the Heisman, he is irreplaceable.

Which makes me question Franklin's intelligence as he has Barkley returning kickoffs.
Franklin's gift is as a program manager, not game strategist. That talent enabled him to hire Joe Moorhead to fix a stagnant offense.
 

SoxJox

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Teams having been stacking to defend against the run. Barkley's (in fact, the whole team's) carries/game are down from last year as a result. Franklin - and Moorhead - are both trying to get him as many touches as they can.

Through the first 3 games of 2017, Barkley has had carries of 14, 14, and 10, respectively, totaling 307 yards, or 8.1 yds/rush. And his yards/game has been going down...172, 88, and 47, respectively. Last year's per game averages were 19.4 carries and 5.5 yds/rush. He had as many as 31 and 33 carries (vs Maryland and Indiana, respectively).

It's also the reason you see Barkley's targets and catches per game are also up. Last year he averaged 1.5 catches/game. So far this year: 3.7. He is already near halfway to what he accumulated in 14 games last year. Note that in that 47 yard rushing game vs GSU, Barkley had 142 receiving yards.

It is interesting though, that through the first 3 weeks, CFBStats reports that Penn State is averaging 184 rushing yards/game, which ranks 51st overall. However, the Lions are averaging 6.84 yards/carry, which ranks 6th.

Lastly, Barkley returned 3 kicks last year - averaging nearly 25 yards/return. So far this year: 4 returns with an average of nearly 27 yards. That alone provides a strong clue.
 
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SoxJox

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Here's Franklin and RB / Special Teams Coach Charlie Huff's take on it.

“The misconception that the injury level goes way up because he’s on kick return, well, the injury level goes way up when he’s walking to class,” Huff said. “… We’re not idiots. The amount of reps on the body is the amount of reps on the body. But the fact that, ‘Oh, because he’s a kick returner, he’s going to get hurt,’ well, he could get hurt on a speed sweep.

Ultimately, Huff said, Barkley returns kicks because he’s the team’s best player with the ball.

“If you’re going to give him three speed sweeps, you might as well give him two speed sweeps and a kickoff return,” Huff said. “On one of those carries, we know Saquon is going to do something that hits Twitter.”
 
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terrynever

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Teams having been stacking to defend against the run. Barkley's (in fact, the whole team's) carries/game are down from last year as a result. Franklin - and Moorhead - are both trying to get him as many touches as they can.

Through the first 3 games of 2017, Barkley has had carries of 14, 14, and 10, respectively, totaling 307 yards, or 8.1 yds/rush. And his yards/game has been going down...172, 88, and 47, respectively. Last year's per game averages were 19.4 carries and 5.5 yds/rush. He had as many as 31 and 33 carries (vs Maryland and Indiana, respectively).

It's also the reason you see Barkley's targets and catches per game are also up. Last year he averaged 1.5 catches/game. So far this year: 3.7. He is already near halfway to what he accumulated in 14 games last year. Note that in that 47 yard rushing game vs GSU, Barkley had 142 receiving yards.

It is interesting though, that through the first 3 weeks, CFBStats reports that Penn State is averaging 184 rushing yards/game, which ranks 51st overall. However, the Lions are averaging 6.84 yards/carry, which ranks 6th.

Lastly, Barkley returned 3 kicks last year - averaging nearly 25 yards/return. So far this year: 4 returns with an average of nearly 27 yards. That alone provides a strong clue.
Barkley is as good as Le'Veon Bell catching passes out of the backfield. Ezekiel Elliott is also good at it. Barkley's speed, power and hands make him a nightmare for opposing defenses.
Iowa has won its last three home games against Top 5-ranked opponents. Great test for the Nits in their first road game of the season.
 

SoxJox

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An interesting recap of where Saquon Barkley stands in the Penn State hierarchy of running backs.

A sampling:
  • Through four games, Barkley is second in the Big Ten in rushing yards with 518, two behind Ohio State's J.K. Dobbins. He leads the Big Ten in receptions (23), receiving yards (335) and touchdowns (six). He leads the nation in yards from scrimmage on offense (213.3 per game) and all-purpose yards (253.3 per game). He has six offensive plays of at least 40 yards, according to cfbstats.com.
  • Sports-Reference's Play Index tool says that Barkley is the only player since at least 2000 to have over 500 rushing yards and 300 receiving yards in his first four games, and he is the only player in that time to have 200 rushing yards and 10 catches in one game. Only six players since 2000 have finished an entire season with over 700 rushing yards and 700 receiving yards. Barkley's receiving production is likely to slow down, but he's well on his way to rare territory and is also 843 rushing yards away from breaking Penn State's career mark.
 

terrynever

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Penn State's O-Line is much improved but remains exploitable by a team with Ohio State's physicality. The Nits had trouble running the ball against Northwestern, and that game film is a great template for the Buckeyes. Shadow Barkley and see if McSorley can beat you with his feet and arm.

Michigan followed that plan. McSorley and his receivers killed them. McSorley likes to throw high and see if Gesicki, Juwan Johnson and DaeSean Hamilton can out jump the defenders.

On the flip side, can Ohio State move the ball against a very fast Nit defense? Will they run it?
Like last year, this could come down to special teams.
 

SoxJox

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This sets up to be a crazy good game. Interesting that you say by a field goal. If there is one area that OSU has shown vulnerabilities in, it's been their Special Teams. They have a blocked punt and FG, a number of shanked punts (2 very bad vs Maryland) and their KP situation is, well, not so good. This article summarizes:

In the previous three seasons Sean Nuernberger has been here, a walk-on has handled kickoff duties in his place. This season, the job went to freshman Blake Haubeil. So for Meyer to turn to Nuernberger ahead of the Maryland game tells you how he felt about Haubeil’s performance. The problem, though, is that his replacement was someone who’d been beat out for the task for four straight seasons.

Nuernberger’s second kickoff was so far to the middle that the Buckeyes gave up a touchdown. He was eventually replaced in the game by Haubeil, though it’s unclear if that is permanent. Either way, Meyer has made clear what the expectations for that role are. And with Saquon Barkley returning kicks for the Nittany Lions, the margin for error is slim.
And on a missed FG:

Nuernberger has a big leg, but he’s also occasionally missed some short ones. When he finally replaced walk-on Jack Willoughby on field-goal duty in 2015, his first kick was a missed 24-yarder against Illinois. That was his most recent missed field goal — though it’s worth noting he didn’t play in 2016 because of injury — until missing a 29-yarder against Maryland.

Short misfires are excusable against Illinois and Maryland but not so against strong opponents. It wasn’t Nuernberger, but field-goal misses from 21 and 37 yards nearly cost Ohio State the Michigan game last year. More importantly, short misses plant a seed of doubt into the coaching staff when important decisions need to be made.
Of course, PSU has its own issues with Tyler Davis as FG kicker ( 6 of 13 - this after he making 18 straight, and 30 of 32 in 2015 and 2016). But they appear to be solid with their punter Blake Gillikin. He's averaging 44.5 y/p, with a return average of 0.9 yards.
 

SoxJox

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OSU's offensive line won the game. Penn State just could not get any pressure on Barrett. Not an excuse, but it didn't help that the Lions' best rusher - DE Ryan Buchholz - was injured early and carted off the field. Not that it would have mattered. OSU's OL simply protected Barrett, and opened holes on the rush.

Giving up 529 total yards, and allowing Barrett to go 15-15 in the 4th quarter = killer.


Here are the stats:

Team Totals PSU OSU
FIRST DOWNS
17 27
Rushing 5 10
Passing 9 14
Penalty 3 3
NET YARDS RUSHING 91 201
Rushing Attempts 35 39
Average Per Rush 2.6 5.2
Rushing Touchdowns 2 1
Yards Gained Rushing 140 217
Yards Lost Rushing 49 16
NET YARDS PASSING 192 328
Completions-Attempts-Int 17-29-0 33-39-0
Average Per Attempt 6.6 8.4
Average Per Completion 11.3 9.9
Passing Touchdowns 2 4
TOTAL OFFENSE YARDS 283 529
Total offense plays 64 78
Average Gain Per Play 4.4 6.8
Fumbles: Number-Lost 0-0 2-2
Penalties: Number-Yards 9-73 10-79
PUNTS-YARDS 6-213 3-130
Average Yards Per Punt 35.5 43.3
Net Yards Per Punt 29.0 43.3
Inside 20 1 1
50+ Yards 1 1
Touchbacks 0 0
Fair catch 1 1
KICKOFFS-YARDS 7-434 8-360
Average Yards Per Kickoff 62.0 45.0
Net Yards Per Kickoff 38.9 21.9
Touchbacks 1 0
Punt returns: Number-Yards-TD 0-0-0 4-39-0
Average Per Return 0.0 9.8
Kickoff returns: Number-Yds-TD 7-185-1 6-137-0
Average Per Return 26.4 22.8
Interceptions: Number-Yds-TD 0-0-0 0-0-0
Fumble Returns: Number-Yds-TD 1-26-0 0-0-0
Miscellaneous Yards 0 0
Possession Time 30:53 29:07
1st Quarter 6:43 8:17
2nd Quarter 8:40 6:20
3rd Quarter 6:54 8:06
4th Quarter 8:36 6:24
Third-Down Conversions 7 of 15 5 of 12
Fourth-Down Conversions 0 of 1 0 of 1
Red-Zone Scores-Chances 3-3 6-6
Touchdowns 2-3 4-6
Field goals 1-3 2-6
Sacks By: Number-Yards 2-11 2-9
PAT Kicks 5-5 3-3
Field Goals 1-1 2-2
Points off turnovers 7 0
 

canderson

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Didn't get to watch any games this weekend. How was this game so close? Looks on paper than Penn State got dominated in every phase of the game.

The fact Barkley can no longer be a very effective RB is really hurting them. I think they might lose this week unless Sparty completely gives up after their terrible loss to Northwestern.
 

SoxJox

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Penn State had a 14-0 lead 3-1/2 minutes into the game after an opening 97-yard return for TD, and OSU losing a fumble on their first possession and a TD pass from McSorley to DaeSean Hamilton at 11:36 in the 1st. Even with 5:42 left, they were still up by 9 @ 38-27.

Here's the scoring summary:

1st

14:45 PSU Barkley, Saquon 97 yd kickoff return (Davis, Tyler kick) 7 - 0
11:36 PSU Hamilton, DaeSean 13 yd pass from McSorley, Trace (Davis, Tyler kick) 5 plays, 23 yards, TOP 1:56 14 - 0
04:38 OSU Nuernberger, S. 38 yd field goal 9 plays, 37 yards, TOP 2:58 14 - 3

2nd
11:40 PSU Barkley, Saquon 36 yd run (Davis, Tyler kick) 7 plays, 81 yards, TOP 3:20 21 - 3
09:32 OSU McLaurin, Terry 14 yd pass from Barrett, J.T. (Nuernberger, S. kick) 5 plays, 63 yards, TOP 2:01 21 - 10
08:06 PSU McSorley, Trace 6 yd run (Davis, Tyler kick) 2 plays, 23 yards, TOP 1:08 28 - 10
04:56 OSU Weber, Mike 2 yd run (Nuernberger, S. kick) 10 plays, 75 yards, TOP 3:10 28 - 17

3rd
11:37 OSU Nuernberger, S. 36 yd field goal 10 plays, 57 yards, TOP 3:23 28 - 20
07:25 PSU Thompkins, DeAndre 37 yd pass from McSorley, Trace (Davis, Tyler kick) 10 plays, 70 yards, TOP 4:09 35 - 20

4th

11:05 OSU Dixon, Johnnie 38 yd pass from Barrett, J.T. (Nuernberger, S. kick) 2 plays, 47 yards, TOP 0:34 35 - 27
05:42 PSU Davis, Tyler 24 yd field goal 10 plays, 64 yards, TOP 5:18 38 - 27
04:20 OSU Dixon, Johnnie 10 yd pass from Barrett, J.T. (Dixon, Johnnie rush failed) 5 plays, 76 yards, TOP 1:17 38 - 33
01:48 OSU Baugh, Marcus 16 yd pass from Barrett, J.T. (Barrett, J.T. rush failed) 5 plays, 58 yards, TOP 1:19 38 - 39

Barkley can certainly be an effective running back...with blocking.
 

SoxJox

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FiveThirtyEight.com provides a good summary on what it might take for the Lions to make the playioffs

Even if the Lions win the rest of their games, our model gives them only a 20 percent chance of making the playoff. One important factor driving that number is a lack of opportunities for another signature win down the season’s final stretch: According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, Penn State’s future strength of schedule ranks just 67th in the country — easily the worst among the top 15 teams in the country by FPI. The only ranked team remaining on Penn State’s schedule (assuming it doesn’t go to the Big Ten championship) is Michigan State — and if PSU beats Michigan State, the Spartans will surely lose their ranking, which is currently only No. 24.
Ohio State will need to lose twice in conference play to give PSU a shot at winning the East. That’s not very likely; our model gives Ohio State a 44 percent chance of winning every remaining regular-season game, much less winning at least three of four. But OSU’s best chances to lose will come in its games at Iowa this weekend and at Michigan on Nov. 25, so those are also Penn State’s highest-leverage games left in the season
Non-Penn State matchups that have the biggest impact on the team’s playoff chances

Scroll down...Not sure why the table is being dropped with a large gap between it and the preceding text.
~~~~~~PROBABILITY BY PENN STATE OUTCOME
WEEKRESULT MAKES PLAYOFF (%) DOESN’T MAKE PLAYOFF (%) DIFF
10 Iowa def. Ohio State 34.1 12.7 +21.5
13 Michigan def. Ohio State 35.4 19.2 +16.3
10 NC State def. Clemson 41.5 30.6 +10.9
11 Michigan State def. Ohio State 16.1 7.0 +9.1
13 Stanford def. Notre Dame 43.4 35.7 +7.7
11 Miami (FL) def. Notre Dame 42.0 35.2 +6.8
13 Georgia Tech def. Georgia 29.5 22.9 +6.6
13 South Carolina def. Clemson 27.5 21.2 +6.3
11 Stanford def. Washington 46.4 40.7 +5.7
13 Auburn def. Alabama 37.7 32.3 +5.3
 
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terrynever

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The lesson here is ... play a tougher non-conference schedule in September. Drop Georgia State and add in a Top 25 opponent, just like Ohio State does every year.
Pitt's mediocre season has not helped Penn State at all.
 

SoxJox

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I would like to see them dip into the ACC. Look to schedule Clemson, Miami, Florida State (well, maybe not this year’s incarnation) or VaTech – maybe Louisville. Or any of the SEC teams. Schedule old rival WVa, now a member of the B12. Those would be good games.
 

SoxJox

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Doesn't take long before the speculation machine jumps into gear.

Potential targets:

  • Ricky Rahne, Penn State tight ends coach (a very capable replacement and reportedly respected by every QB with which he's interacted - and previously much more involved in recruiting than Moorhead (that's not intended to be a dig on Joe)
  • Andrew Breiner, Fordham head coach (wouldn't this make ironic sense?)
  • Billy Napier, Arizona State offensive coordinator (Not my pick, but a very likely candidate given his association with Alabama and Clemson) - potential bonus points for opening up recruiting possibilities in the south
  • Mike Yurcich, Oklahoma State offensive coordinator (PA ties with a proven offensive mindset)
 
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canderson

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Rahne promoted to OC.

Bigger news is Isheem Young, one of the highest committed recruits, was arrested for robbing Wawa at gunpoint.
 

SoxJox

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Looks like Penn State will play Washington in the Fiesta Bowl. This article has a pretty good take on the challenge presented for the Lions:

  • A sound offense led by QB Jake Browning, who was an early Heisman hopeful, eventually finishing with a 68.8% pass completion rate for 2,544 yards, and 18 touchdowns against five interceptions.
  • A solid defense, led by nose tackle and PAC-12 DPOY Vita Vea, a projected 1st round draft pick.
 

terrynever

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Rahne promoted to OC.

Bigger news is Isheem Young, one of the highest committed recruits, was arrested for robbing Wawa at gunpoint.
An inside job, too. His older brother worked for the Wawa. Talk about throwing away your future.