2017 Yankees Offseason Discussion

Murderer's Crow

Dragon Wangler 216
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Dodgers aren't taking that contract on either. Out of that group, any other year, I'd say the Yankees were an easy match. Unless Cashman has a way of getting out of Ellsbury's deal and/or dealing Castro to save money, Stanton would make it difficult to stay under the Luxury Tax. He's also not really a perfect fit for the team who is log-jammed in the outfield even without Ellsbury on the team.
 

jon abbey

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He's also not really a perfect fit for the team who is log-jammed in the outfield even without Ellsbury on the team.
Well, I would guess that Clint Frazier would be the main prospect to go to Florida if a deal happened, so if they also moved Ellsbury, they'd have:

Stanton
Hicks/Gardner
Judge

Then McKinney and Cave are the only other OFs on the 40 man and Florial lurking for 2019. Also they have no DH as of now, so they could rotate Stanton and Judge and Sanchez in there for half days off.
 

E5 Yaz

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Well, I would guess that Clint Frazier would be the main prospect to go to Florida if a deal happened, so if they also moved Ellsbury, they'd have:

Stanton
Hicks/Gardner
Judge
You realize that the Marlins would want Judge, right?
 

jon abbey

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The guys they agreed to with STL and SF are nowhere near as valuable as Judge, even Frazier would be an impressive get for them given the huge contract and Stanton’s seemingly very short list.
 

BoSox Rule

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It takes some decent prospects and taking on $250 million to get Stanton, not giving up MVP candidates.
 

Van Everyman

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As a Sox fan, I would be elated if the Yankees traded for Stanton, even if they didn’t give up much of value and kept the current lineup in tact.

Trading for Stanton would obviously improve the team in the near-term. I actually think his acquisition would make them the immediate favorite to head to the WS.

But already, the Yankees look set to compete for a number of years. For the first time in forever, they don’t have any significant payroll obligations beyond whatever it will take to (over)pay the guys they have once they reach FA – Hicks, Bird and Judge, obviously.

With Stanton, all that changes. The risk that the franchise is suddenly hogtied from a financial perspective becomes very real – especially if he gets injured or his performance declines.

All of which is to say: I’m not sure that even the New York Yankees can absorb a $300M contract in today’s market.

I hope it happens.
 

jon abbey

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Hee Sox Choi

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A deal to send Stanton to New York is “close if not done,” a source tells Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter). Update:

 
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chawson

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If this doesn’t include Frazier, Torres, or Florial, it’s a joke. It’s like if David Ortiz ran the Rays and traded us Archer and Longoria for Brock Holt.
 

jon abbey

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If this doesn’t include Frazier, Torres, or Florial, it’s a joke. It’s like if David Ortiz ran the Rays and traded us Archer and Longoria for Brock Holt.
If Longoria had a $300M contract maybe, no one else wants to pick up this contract but NY has so few bad deals on the books currently that they can afford to. BOS evidently didn't want it, LAD and CHC and HOU didn't seem too interested either, and he passed through waivers with no one claiming him last August. STL and SF agreed to deals but neither picked up the full deal and it doesn't seem like they were offering too much in return either.
 

jon abbey

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So the Stanton deal probably increases the chances NY will make more trades this winter, Ellsbury will not be on this roster next year for starters. Lineup as of now:

Gardner LF
Judge RF/DH
Stanton RF/DH
Bird 1B
Sanchez C
Didi SS
Hicks CF
Headley/Andujar 3B
Wade/Torres 2B
 

Murderer's Crow

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I think there is a good chance the next move is for a SP but I would be surprised if someone doesn't get a 75% discount on Ellsbury in exchange for a bag of balls.
 

jon abbey

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I still think CC is almost certain to happen, but they may move Ellsbury first to try to get some more salary flexibility.
 

EvilEmpire

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I'm hoping the Yankees don't have to eat more than 50% of Ellsbury's contract to find him a new home. Get it done Cashman.
 

StuckOnYouk

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Who exactly is going to take Ellsbury unless you eat maybe 80-85% of the deal? He's aging, he's OK at best offensively he's got injury issues and he's actually a negative in the field now. What good team wants him CF right now?
 

jon abbey

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Who exactly is going to take Ellsbury unless you eat maybe 80-85% of the deal? He's aging, he's OK at best offensively he's got injury issues and he's actually a negative in the field now. What good team wants him CF right now?
What if you include Clint Frazier and his six years of team control along with him?
 

YankeesIsrael

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Who exactly is going to take Ellsbury unless you eat maybe 80-85% of the deal? He's aging, he's OK at best offensively he's got injury issues and he's actually a negative in the field now. What good team wants him CF right now?
Someone who'll get enough good prospects with him. Everyone is saying how deep and loaded the Yankee farm system is. Then why not use that depth to get rid of Ellsbury?
 

jon abbey

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The guy with the "legendary bat speed" who is suddenly not good enough for them? Did his bat slow down? :)
He’s a corner outfielder, Judge and Stanton have those covered for the next three seasons at least.
 

jon abbey

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Kinda my point. Apparently they don't think he's a good enough ML player. Other teams will wonder the same thing now after this trade.
Hahaha, yeah, keep telling yourself whatever you need to. Frazier's not perfect, but he's still 23 and a huge talent.
 

E5 Yaz

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I'm hoping the Yankees don't have to eat more than 50% of Ellsbury's contract to find him a new home. Get it done Cashman.
The Marlins have an outfield opening. Maybe Jeter will bend back over and take 75% of the contract
 

jon abbey

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And if you are doubting that bat speed, I recommend watching this game-winning HR from last July, on a 97 MPH FB from one of the best closers in the game (Knebel).

 

hbk72777

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Kinda my point. Apparently they don't think he's a good enough ML player. Other teams will wonder the same thing now after this trade.

So because the Yankees trade for one of the top 3 players in baseball, it's because Frazier isn't that good?

You cannot be serious
 

StuckOnYouk

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Is Frazier still considered a prospect? If so, where he would he rank on the top 100? I think BA had him at 49 in their midseason report for 2017. What's his value worth I wonder to another team if he's being tied to Ellsbury's deal.
 

jon abbey

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Moved this from the main board to respond:

I think you can guarantee that the Yankees will get a Cole-type pitcher over the next week.
I'm not so sure about that, I think they will resign CC to a one or two year deal (hopefully one) and then Cashman will have a full rotation, a lot of arms eagerly waiting for their chance in the minors and he can wait for a top impact arm to come free at a price he likes. Adams doesn't seem to have much left to prove in AAA and Sheffield and Abreu are also flying upwards (all three should be on most top 100 lists), and Domingo German might be ahead of all three.
 

jon abbey

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People remember Sabathia's awful 2013-2015 very strongly (three years of high-priced suckitude is a long time), but he has been a really solid pitcher for two straight seasons now, he allowed the weakest average contact of any SP in MLB in 2016, and this past season, he was a remarkable 4-0 with a 1.04 ER in 4 starts against Boston, 3 total runs allowed.

Cashman I think would be crazy not to bring him back, and if he wants to bring in another guy and everyone is healthy, Montgomery has options, unfair as that would be to him after a really good rookie season.
 

jon abbey

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jon abbey

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OK, I think we need an update post.

C-Sanchez
1B-Bird
2B-Wade (Torres probably in May or June)
SS-Didi
3B-Headley (Andujar lurking and could win it in Florida)
LF: Gardner
CF: Hicks
RF/DH: Judge
RF/DH: Stanton

Bench: Frazier, Romine, Torreyes, Austin, Ellsbury

Rotation: Severino, Tanaka, Gray, Montgomery. ???

Bullpen: Heller, Warren, Green, Betances, Kahnle, Robertson, Chapman

Other position players on the 40 man: Torres, Andujar, McKinney, Cave, Higashioka, Estrada

Other pitchers on the 40 man: German, Cessa, Mitchell, Shreve, Holder, Gallegos, Acevedo, Abreu, Loaisiga

Other possible contributors not on the 40 man yet: Adams, Sheffield

Still likely to be brought back but not on the team currently: Sabathia
 

jon abbey

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And a list of what I'd still hope NY does this winter:

1) Sign Sabathia to a one year deal.

2) Upgrade backup catcher and dump Romine, Alex Avila has said he'd be happy to be a backup on a contender so maybe that can work.

3) Get rid of Ellsbury, even if it means including talent along with him and/or eating salary. There is no room for him on this team now.

4) Pick a coaching staff.

5) Spend their $3.5M left in international money, Cashman has said he has until June to use this and he will use it.

Guys like Mitchell and Torreyes also probably won't be around too much longer, Headley may last the season as a backup 1B/3B.
 

jon abbey

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I saw the Stanton trade coming more than a month ago.
I mean, the bottom line was prescient, but every detail about why and how was way off. You call Boston the frontrunners when the Dodgers always were if they had been able to somehow fit him in (they evidently wanted to send back $75M in dead salaries), you don't mention his no trade clause at all which ended up being the most crucial element, and you say NY would need to send Frazier plus 2 or 3 guys from their top 10 which Cashman would never have considered even for a second. I'm really not trying to be too harsh and sorry if it is coming off that way, but it is really funny to me that you are (literally) patting yourself on the back for that one.

As for Machado, I do think it's still possible NY goes after him next winter, but it really doesn't make sense for them to send young talent within their division to get him a year earlier. Also that extra year will give them a chance to get a much better idea what they have in Torres and Andujar.