2018-19 Offseason Thread
- Thread starter Devizier
- Start date
It was a wonderful ride with this group of guys. This 2018 roster was the best overall team I’ve seen since the (damn it!) Yankees of the late-90’s. So wonderful to see the seeds sown during 2014-15 blossom this way!
That being said, I’ll give my thoughts.
A.) I think it’s safe to say DDski should hold off on any contract extension talks about Chris Sale.
B.) But there’s gonna be big raises for Mookie and X, plus moderate raises for JBJ and EdRo. Especially for X, this is the perfect offseason to get an extension hammered out.
C.) I’d love to see Kelly (yeah, I know), and Pearce back on 2-3 year deals. I think Eovaldi priced himself out of the discussion this postseason. But, if they can get Eo for average money on a 3-year deal, that would be amazing.
D.) Kimbrel, Kinsler, and Pom should all be allowed to walk without a QO. I’ve been waffling back and forth between offering one to Kimbrel or not, but I’d much rather that money be directed to extending X.
E.) Speaking of money, this is going to be another very-high payroll team with no legitimate chance to reset below the LT until after 2020 at the earliest. So while I can’t see JH wanting to go over the highest LT threshold again, they’ll surely be over the initial one.
That being said, I’ll give my thoughts.
A.) I think it’s safe to say DDski should hold off on any contract extension talks about Chris Sale.
B.) But there’s gonna be big raises for Mookie and X, plus moderate raises for JBJ and EdRo. Especially for X, this is the perfect offseason to get an extension hammered out.
C.) I’d love to see Kelly (yeah, I know), and Pearce back on 2-3 year deals. I think Eovaldi priced himself out of the discussion this postseason. But, if they can get Eo for average money on a 3-year deal, that would be amazing.
D.) Kimbrel, Kinsler, and Pom should all be allowed to walk without a QO. I’ve been waffling back and forth between offering one to Kimbrel or not, but I’d much rather that money be directed to extending X.
E.) Speaking of money, this is going to be another very-high payroll team with no legitimate chance to reset below the LT until after 2020 at the earliest. So while I can’t see JH wanting to go over the highest LT threshold again, they’ll surely be over the initial one.
A: Absolutely, I think there's no way I'd sign him long term. Love him, but let him be Mets Pedro elsewhere.
B: Agree
C: Kelly and Pearce will cash in elsewhere, but if they are thinking no way ever on Sale, I could see Eovaldi. Is 45/3 in the ballpark?
D. I'd offer Kimbrel the QO. Even if he accepts, a one year overpay won't harm the budget for X.
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I was in the middle of writing this (http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/2019-boston-red-sox-defense-of-the-title.25371/) when you posted this thread so obviously I missed it.
Mods, if it makes sense to merge, please do so.
Mods, if it makes sense to merge, please do so.
There is no way Kimbrel would accept. If he did, I'd be happy to have him back for another year and hope for he best.
If the team can sign Eovaldi, I'd look into trading Porcello. He only has 1 year left and I don't see the Sox re-signing him. See if you can get some good prospects or a player to help the big league team while using the $ savings to spend on other needs.
A lot of these machinations depend on Price. I got a "I'm opting out" vibe last night.
After he decides, we go from there.
After he decides, we go from there.
As much as everyone here loves David Price right now, I think we would all be ecstatic with this outcome. All of his reasons for opting out are gone after last night.
He likely wouldn't get more money as a free agent this year.
If he leaves, it will be for non-monetary reasons such as wanting to go out "on top," being sick of the Boston media/fanbase, wanting to challenge himself by winning with a different group, just wanting to live in a warmer climate or whatever, etc.
Speaking of opting out, is JDM's first opt-out after this first year or after next?
It would be great if someone smarter than I could post one of those salary commitment/projection lists that shows all the $ that are set in stone for 2019, those that are likely due to arbitration, and final totals above/below the various tax thresholds.
He won't get more in AAV but if someone was to offer 5/140 or something close to AAV on a 4 year does he take it for the reasons mentioned by @OurF'ingCity?
@Saints Rest - JD's opt out is after next year.
@Saints Rest - JD's opt out is after next year.
I'm a bit wary of Eovaldi's arm being destroyed. two TJs then that performance. Pearce is fantastic on a hot streak, but he can be fungible a lot of the time
Overall I don't want to fall into "bring back all the guys, they regress" trap of 2014. so I'm waffling on all of the guys at the moment.
I can't imagine Price opting out (never did no matter what the situation with him).
Overall I don't want to fall into "bring back all the guys, they regress" trap of 2014. so I'm waffling on all of the guys at the moment.
I can't imagine Price opting out (never did no matter what the situation with him).
I might be crazy but I'd rather prioritize Betts, JD, and even JBJ over Xander for an extension. I don't think Xander signs anything team friendly (Boras) and I think he's least likely to bring back value over what would easily be a $100M++ contract. Loopy swing, injuries, average defense. Focus #1 on Betts and convincing JD to forgo is opt-out in exchange for tacking on years. Lock down an all-time great defensive CF for reasonable money.
Pearce on cheap money is a no brainer. Him and Moreland is an incredibly productive cheap platoon with both being able to handle every day work.
I think everyone else is probably going to walk unless they take discounts.
Long term deal with Mookie. Resign Pearce. Sign 2 relievers. Repeat.
I think everyone else is probably going to walk unless they take discounts.
Long term deal with Mookie. Resign Pearce. Sign 2 relievers. Repeat.
If Price opts out, there will be plenty of other pitchers to spend that $31m. I'm not worried.
Bullpen is a better question. Kimbrel and Kelly were great, but they're going to get paid a shit ton by someone. Both will be 31 next year. I'd rather the Sox try to find the next Kelly/Kimbrel, rather than ride the two of them past their expiration date.
Bullpen is a better question. Kimbrel and Kelly were great, but they're going to get paid a shit ton by someone. Both will be 31 next year. I'd rather the Sox try to find the next Kelly/Kimbrel, rather than ride the two of them past their expiration date.
Problem is he's not going to know if there is a deal like that out there until after he opts-out, which is why I think he doesn't - just too much risk of leaving a shitload of money on the table.
this is not a crazy take at all, I 100% agree. X is the most expendable "killer B" player.
He never threw more than 97 pitches and went 10 days between throwing more than 20.
10/23: 16 on 4 days rest
10/24: 13
10/26: 97
If one of 10/23 or 10/24 days was his throw day, he only threw on extra 13 or 16 pitches on the other day. I don't think that's arm destroying work.
Yeah, is his "peace of mind" or whatever he would get by leaving Boston worth the $25M or whatever he'd be giving up? I don't think so.
If Price opts out he’s 100% gone. He’s not going to make 30 million on the open market. Thankfully they still have Sale and Porcello so they aren’t screwed. Right now I view it like this.
Kinsler- Siberia or Retirement
Eovaldi - DD will probably resign him.
Pearce- could see this going either way. You have Travis down in the minors who would be a less expensive but less effective options. I’d hedge on keeping him.
Kimbrel- Will get the QO and will decline it. He’s probably gone.
Kelly- could definitely see DD overpaying to keep him as the new closer. Even though it would probably be a mistake to do so. The right move would probably be to let him walk and thank him for his service.
Pomeranz- Will probably get a MLB deal with an NL team but I’d argue that no ones value fell harder than his from the end of last year to this season. Could see a team like the Brewers take a flyer on him.
The big domino is obviously Price. If he goes then that money probably goes to signing Sale and X long term. Maybe if JD and Mookie want to negotiate something then bump them as well. But it seems like Mookie is content with this year by year arraignment.
On a side note it would be kind of funny if Price opted out and the Sox winded up with Kershaw. Not what I want to see happen after how he pitched in Games 1 and 5 but would be interesting.
Kinsler- Siberia or Retirement
Eovaldi - DD will probably resign him.
Pearce- could see this going either way. You have Travis down in the minors who would be a less expensive but less effective options. I’d hedge on keeping him.
Kimbrel- Will get the QO and will decline it. He’s probably gone.
Kelly- could definitely see DD overpaying to keep him as the new closer. Even though it would probably be a mistake to do so. The right move would probably be to let him walk and thank him for his service.
Pomeranz- Will probably get a MLB deal with an NL team but I’d argue that no ones value fell harder than his from the end of last year to this season. Could see a team like the Brewers take a flyer on him.
The big domino is obviously Price. If he goes then that money probably goes to signing Sale and X long term. Maybe if JD and Mookie want to negotiate something then bump them as well. But it seems like Mookie is content with this year by year arraignment.
On a side note it would be kind of funny if Price opted out and the Sox winded up with Kershaw. Not what I want to see happen after how he pitched in Games 1 and 5 but would be interesting.
Of the six FAs listed in the OP, Kelly and Pearce look to be the easiest to get done. I think Pomeranz has thrown his last pitch for the Sox. I don't see DD breaking the bank for Kimbrel and Eovaldi is going to attract a lot of interest which will drive up his price. Kinsler, I don't see a place for him here, but who knows what Pedroia's status will be heading into next season.
Yes Pedroia is a pretty big domino; but if he's done we can ride Holt/Nunez until the trade deadline exactly like this season.
A.) Agreed on Sale. At least hold off until ST.
B.) Agreed on raises for Mookie, X, JBJ and EdRo. Don't think X or JBJ (both repped by Boras) will agree to an extension. EdRo will be an arb1, so probably too early to extend.
C.) I cannot see Kelly or Kimbrel back, notwithstanding Kelly's unbelievable postseason performance. I'd offer Pearce 1/$6.5mm (same as Moreland), with the idea that 1B will be open after 2019. I'd offer Eovaldi a lot of money; I think he's ready to make the leap.
D.) Kimbrel has to get a QO.
The goal should be to retool for one more run in 2019, realizing that JDM, X, Sale and Porcello may all be gone after next year.
B.) Agreed on raises for Mookie, X, JBJ and EdRo. Don't think X or JBJ (both repped by Boras) will agree to an extension. EdRo will be an arb1, so probably too early to extend.
C.) I cannot see Kelly or Kimbrel back, notwithstanding Kelly's unbelievable postseason performance. I'd offer Pearce 1/$6.5mm (same as Moreland), with the idea that 1B will be open after 2019. I'd offer Eovaldi a lot of money; I think he's ready to make the leap.
D.) Kimbrel has to get a QO.
The goal should be to retool for one more run in 2019, realizing that JDM, X, Sale and Porcello may all be gone after next year.
one intangible about Kimbrel is his daughter's situation. best medical care you can find is in Boston
Brett Cecil got 4/30 coming off of three very good seasons (and one okay one). This was two years ago, so you have to adjust for inflation, but the contract was viewed, even at the time, as a potential overpay. So maybe those two cancel out.
Sale: I'd wait to see how he's throwing next year. I'm definitely concerned about the shoulder still. Sale at 93-95 is still a good pitcher. Sale at 97-100 is clearly a next level pitcher. And the money you give a "good" pitcher vs a "next level" pitcher is very different.
Kimbrel: Qualifying offer seems about right, which he'll decline. Feltman is a guy who could end up being the closer in the second half of the season, so maybe they just need a bridge to him for the first half. It would be fine for Kimbrel to be back for one year with Feltman in the wings for 2020. If Kimbrel declines and is gone, thank you for three electric seasons and one world championship. Finding a replacement should be doable.
Kelly: Maybe HE is the replacement, but I am not sure. I think he's still better suited for "ace reliever" kind of guy. It's all about control for him. He had it in the playoffs, and we saw the results. When he loses it, he struggles (not surprising). I could see a 3-year contract at like $10-12 million a year for him. That's not what *I* would want to spend but I could see it. Barnes has been really good and he and Brasier should be the two top relief arms next year most likely.
Eovaldi: Definitely want to keep him. But I don't know what the price tag will be.
Pomeranz: Obviously gone. Same with Kinsler.
Pearce: Would love to have him back - seems like a perfect fit for this team in every way. Shouldn't be too much. He and Moreland are a really good platoon with the other serving in a PH role. Like that combo a lot.
Will be curious to see if Smith or Thornburg can give them ANYTHING next year. Devers should be improved, and the kid has already been terrific.
Coming through the pipeline could be: Chavis, Feltman, Dalbec, Shawaryn (who could see his fastball go from 93-95 up to 95-97 if he converted to a relief role, which he may be better suited for)
Kimbrel: Qualifying offer seems about right, which he'll decline. Feltman is a guy who could end up being the closer in the second half of the season, so maybe they just need a bridge to him for the first half. It would be fine for Kimbrel to be back for one year with Feltman in the wings for 2020. If Kimbrel declines and is gone, thank you for three electric seasons and one world championship. Finding a replacement should be doable.
Kelly: Maybe HE is the replacement, but I am not sure. I think he's still better suited for "ace reliever" kind of guy. It's all about control for him. He had it in the playoffs, and we saw the results. When he loses it, he struggles (not surprising). I could see a 3-year contract at like $10-12 million a year for him. That's not what *I* would want to spend but I could see it. Barnes has been really good and he and Brasier should be the two top relief arms next year most likely.
Eovaldi: Definitely want to keep him. But I don't know what the price tag will be.
Pomeranz: Obviously gone. Same with Kinsler.
Pearce: Would love to have him back - seems like a perfect fit for this team in every way. Shouldn't be too much. He and Moreland are a really good platoon with the other serving in a PH role. Like that combo a lot.
Will be curious to see if Smith or Thornburg can give them ANYTHING next year. Devers should be improved, and the kid has already been terrific.
Coming through the pipeline could be: Chavis, Feltman, Dalbec, Shawaryn (who could see his fastball go from 93-95 up to 95-97 if he converted to a relief role, which he may be better suited for)
Two big questions for me upon first thought.
1. Do the Red Sox think Dustin Pedroia is ever coming back? If they do, then maybe Holt and Lin and Marco Hernandez and Esteban Quiroz are enough of a Plan B for 2019. But if the Dustin Pedroia we know and love is gone for good, they need to figure out their long-term 2B situation. DJ LeMahieu is a free agent, and seems like exactly the kind of guy they'd target if they thought Pedroia was done.
2. Is Blake Swihart a catcher? They managed to make it work this year, but I can't see them going into 2019 with three catchers. I have no idea how they envision the future of the position. It'll be really interesting. I think they all have real trade value at this point. And I think that both Chavis and Dalbec are very tradeable assets, too. Could they get a cost-controlled starter to bolster the rotation in 2019 and lead it once Sale leaves in 2020?
Otherwise, my first take is that this is pretty straightforward. Offer Kimbrel the QO and let him walk. Try to re-sign Kelly and/or Eovaldi. Build the rest of the bullpen as best you can. Try to bring Pearce back to fill the Hanley Ramirez role he filled so well in the second half. Spend the rest of your time trying to work out long-term deals with Betts and Bogaerts.
1. Do the Red Sox think Dustin Pedroia is ever coming back? If they do, then maybe Holt and Lin and Marco Hernandez and Esteban Quiroz are enough of a Plan B for 2019. But if the Dustin Pedroia we know and love is gone for good, they need to figure out their long-term 2B situation. DJ LeMahieu is a free agent, and seems like exactly the kind of guy they'd target if they thought Pedroia was done.
2. Is Blake Swihart a catcher? They managed to make it work this year, but I can't see them going into 2019 with three catchers. I have no idea how they envision the future of the position. It'll be really interesting. I think they all have real trade value at this point. And I think that both Chavis and Dalbec are very tradeable assets, too. Could they get a cost-controlled starter to bolster the rotation in 2019 and lead it once Sale leaves in 2020?
Otherwise, my first take is that this is pretty straightforward. Offer Kimbrel the QO and let him walk. Try to re-sign Kelly and/or Eovaldi. Build the rest of the bullpen as best you can. Try to bring Pearce back to fill the Hanley Ramirez role he filled so well in the second half. Spend the rest of your time trying to work out long-term deals with Betts and Bogaerts.
Cecil was coming off 4 years of 141 ERA+ baseball and a FIP of 2.73, Kelly is coming off 4 years of 100 ERA+ baseball and a FIP of 3.93. I don't think they are all that comparable.
4/30 would strike me as a big overpay for Joe Kelly, but I think some team might offer it. I don't see him back on the Redsox.
It was either Darling or Anderson who called Swihart a utility player who can also catch. I think that's more accurate than calling him a catcher who can play other positions. We'll see.
My thoughts:
Kimbrel: Thanks for the pick, make a QO, bye bye
Kinsler, bye bye, Pedey is back or if not try Lin. Holt as insurance. (He's signed, right?)
Pomeranz: Bye
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Pearce. He's 35. I'm ok with a Morelandian 1 year/$5 mil, to see if Sam Travis or some other young guy is ready in 2020. The WS is SSS
Kelly: sign if reasonable. Compete for closer or 8th inning job, in spite of high career BB/IP rate. I am optimistic we found something. I'm comfortable with him for 1 inning with 3 run lead. 13-0 was impressive, but SSS
Eovaldi: I'm infatuated with him. I think his arm will fall off sometime, so I'm ok with a short length contract. Even at high salary. I'm ok with him either as starter or reliever, Cora and DDski can make that decision. I want him back. I wouldn't go 5 years though.
Kimbrel: Thanks for the pick, make a QO, bye bye
Kinsler, bye bye, Pedey is back or if not try Lin. Holt as insurance. (He's signed, right?)
Pomeranz: Bye
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Pearce. He's 35. I'm ok with a Morelandian 1 year/$5 mil, to see if Sam Travis or some other young guy is ready in 2020. The WS is SSS
Kelly: sign if reasonable. Compete for closer or 8th inning job, in spite of high career BB/IP rate. I am optimistic we found something. I'm comfortable with him for 1 inning with 3 run lead. 13-0 was impressive, but SSS
Eovaldi: I'm infatuated with him. I think his arm will fall off sometime, so I'm ok with a short length contract. Even at high salary. I'm ok with him either as starter or reliever, Cora and DDski can make that decision. I want him back. I wouldn't go 5 years though.
My kool aid hasn't left my system yet, so I say pay Kelly. Sure, he's been up and down, but do we think he'll ever lose confidence again after being a shut-down guy in the 8th inning of a World Series close-out game? He may have turned a corner for good. What he just did this month was incredible.
David Price appears to have quite a behavioral repertoire maintained by countercontrol within what may be described as a coercive environment (Boston sports area). Had he and the Red Sox faltered and fans exclaimed, "Please leave!" ... he may have likely responded with, "F-ck you, I'm staying." But now? The city's behind him, and many followers are likely clamoring for him to stay. This sets the stage for, "So now you want me back? F-ck you, I'm leaving."
Though, Price does seem to really enjoy playing with his teammates, so that may be a significant variable that leads to him staying, in addition to the obvious $$ factor. (Counter-point: He's earned over 150 million at this point in his career, thus, he doesn't need to prioritize money.) Price relinquishing 4 years and over 120 million due to him during his 33-36 years after leading the Sox to a WS title would be pretty freakin' ideal.
Prediction: I'm saying he opts out!
Though, Price does seem to really enjoy playing with his teammates, so that may be a significant variable that leads to him staying, in addition to the obvious $$ factor. (Counter-point: He's earned over 150 million at this point in his career, thus, he doesn't need to prioritize money.) Price relinquishing 4 years and over 120 million due to him during his 33-36 years after leading the Sox to a WS title would be pretty freakin' ideal.
Prediction: I'm saying he opts out!
Heh, well the final chapter on his relationship to Boston fans isn't written yet. When he gets welcomed home as a conquering hero, he might soften his views a bit.
Agreed. Where is the urgency on the Red Sox's behalf to overpay for him (Kelly)? If they lose Kimbrel and Kelly they are down two important bullpen pieces, but that seems to be the case with most teams every year, and I am fairly confident that the Sox can find significantly cheaper replacements via free agency, Smith/Thornburg possibly turning into usable pieces, AAA, minor trades, etc.
That said if Kelly really wants to come back and agrees to a short, team-friendly deal then of course I am all for that - but bullpen pieces are so in demand for any team that even thinks it might be a contender, I don't see that happening.
That's the type of deal I would offer him but I don't think it'd be enough. I also wonder if he might look for a team that will let him start.
I wouldn't be shocked if it broke in the next week or so that Sale is headed for surgery. If so, Price opting out would screw this team. I doubt he does, and I don't think we should mistake his disdain for Boston media with his love of his teammates.
My offseason
Give Mookie whatever he wants.
Try for Eovaldi at around 3/$40M.
Re-sign Pearce around 2/$12M.
Re-sign Kelly around 3/$18M.
Trade Beni and Vazquez to Pittsburgh for Jameson Taillon, Francisco Cervelli, and Corey Dickerson.
Sign McCutchen (3 years/$40M) to play left.
Offer Kimbrel a QO and let him walk.
Let Pom and Kinsler go.
Non-tender or trade Smith/Thornburg/Workman to the NL.
Sign Ottavino if he doesn't get a QO (around 3/$30M) or sign Trevor Rosenthal (around 2/$20M).
I think trading Beni this offseason is a redux of holding onto Greenwell after '88. Very good player, but not the star that he's perceived to be. More importantly, it's probably our best shot to bring in a frontline starter like Taillon (especially one who eats up RHH). The problem is there aren't many players you can trade him for, and I doubt DeGrom or Syndegaard are on the move with Van Wagenen moving into New York. I think Beni's worth more than Taillon, but he's who I'd target.
Edit: Forgot Pollock had a team option.
My offseason
Give Mookie whatever he wants.
Try for Eovaldi at around 3/$40M.
Re-sign Pearce around 2/$12M.
Re-sign Kelly around 3/$18M.
Trade Beni and Vazquez to Pittsburgh for Jameson Taillon, Francisco Cervelli, and Corey Dickerson.
Sign McCutchen (3 years/$40M) to play left.
Offer Kimbrel a QO and let him walk.
Let Pom and Kinsler go.
Non-tender or trade Smith/Thornburg/Workman to the NL.
Sign Ottavino if he doesn't get a QO (around 3/$30M) or sign Trevor Rosenthal (around 2/$20M).
I think trading Beni this offseason is a redux of holding onto Greenwell after '88. Very good player, but not the star that he's perceived to be. More importantly, it's probably our best shot to bring in a frontline starter like Taillon (especially one who eats up RHH). The problem is there aren't many players you can trade him for, and I doubt DeGrom or Syndegaard are on the move with Van Wagenen moving into New York. I think Beni's worth more than Taillon, but he's who I'd target.
Edit: Forgot Pollock had a team option.
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Who are you spending it on from that list?
Starting pitchers
Patrick Corbin (29 years old, 6.3 WAR)
Dallas Keuchel (31, 3.6)
Clayton Kershaw (31, 3.5) -- Can opt out of the two years and $65 million remaining on his contract.
J.A. Happ (36, 3.2)
Charlie Morton (35, 3.1)
Lance Lynn (32, 2.9)
David Price (33, 2.7) -- Can opt out of the four years and $127 million remaining on his contract.
CC Sabathia (38, 2.5)
Anibal Sanchez (35, 2.4)
Nathan Eovaldi (29, 2.2)
Gio Gonzalez (33, 2.0)
Hyun-Jin Ryu (32, 2.0)
Trevor Cahill (31, 2.0)
Derek Holland (32, 2.0)
Clay Buchholz (34, 1.9)
Wade Miley (32, 1.5)
Matt Harvey (30, 1.4)
Jeremy Hellickson (32, 1.2)
Garrett Richards (32, 1.0)
Tyson Ross (32, 1.0)
Brett Anderson (31, 0.9)
Edwin Jackson (35, 0.7)
Adam Wainwright (37, 0.5) -- Reached agreement on one-year contract with Cardinals. (Oct. 11, 2018)
Marco Estrada (35, 0.5)
Francisco Liriano (35, 0.3)
Bartolo Colon (46, 0.2)
Jaime Garcia (32, 0.0)
Drew Pomeranz (30, -0.3)
Miguel Gonzalez (35, -0.3)
Chris Tillman (31, -0.4)
Hisashi Iwakuma (35, N/A) -- Didn't appear in the Majors in 2018.
I'm fully committed to the love fest the next few weeks but I imagine at some point this board's gonna want to talk about that .252/.305/.344 line since August 9.
This helps too: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/10/mlb-arbitration-salaries-2019.html
