2018-19 Offseason Thread
- Thread starter Devizier
- Start date
https://www.mlb.com/news/2018-2019-mlb-free-agents-and-trade-rumors/c-297641124?tid=282421090
"Dipoto on whether he'd deal Diaz, Haniger or Marco Gonzales,: "We’re going to stay open minded to anything. Generally never say never. But Marco, Mitch, Eddie, we’d have to be blown away to move players like that. That’s what we’re trying to acquire.""
Re-reading everything, it's not as open as I thought it was. :/
There's a lot of speculative chatter about Diaz today, which stems more from other rumored discussions which suggest the Mariners would trade everyone. Not illogical, but I think this smoke doesn't come with any fire.
As I expressed in another thread, in spite of the credit he has gotten, I still think his contribution to the season and the playoffs is underrated. I don't think we win the WS without him. The need he filled, and a need we have, is right-handed power to shut down the right handed power lineups of New York and Houston, which are incredibly potent, and against which our lefties were probably not going to be enough (until Price found his mojo). Eovaldi literally dominated the Yankees on several occasions.
Strategically, we are definitely in a World Series window next year. This could, and I think should alter some of the thinking. This is the best team we've ever had! We need to continue to take advantage of the opportunity this group is presenting. If it can't be Eovaldi, I would maintain that Rick Porcello's erratic and somewhat fading stuff will not be enough to get past the Yankees, and we will need another power righty who can do to NY what Eovaldi did this year. And I don't think we'll find one.
Apologies if I'm being obtuse, but can some kind and knowledgeable person please explain why the Sox only put 39 players on the 40-man at the deadline for Rule 5 draft protection? Is there some advantage to keeping a spot open?
I believe you need spot(s) to take Rule 5 players.
it could also just having flexibility to sign a FA without any roster shenanigans before the Rule 5 draft, but not sure of the rules here.
it could also just having flexibility to sign a FA without any roster shenanigans before the Rule 5 draft, but not sure of the rules here.
NY is at 39 too, this seems like a new thing for teams not planning on taking someone themselves, but there is still almost a month before then and teams will be adding FAs. One reason to leave a spot open as opposed to protecting a fringe guy (Ockimey for BOS, Kyle Holder for NY) is that if you protect them and they cannot help you at all next season, they either clog a 40 man spot or you have to expose them to being taken with no restrictions. If someone is taken in the rule 5, it is tougher to keep them as you have to keep them on the 25 man for the whole season or offer them back, so that is my guess.
Two questions:
1) Who's our 5th starter next year?
2) Who's our 3rd starter in 2020?
You could argue that the Sox should wait till next winter to answer question 2, but then you still have to answer question 1. Eovaldi answers both. Of course, given the Sox' payroll situation, you could make a case for winging it till Porcello and Sale's salaries are off the books (assume they are unable or unwilling to extend either). But then you're relying on some combination of Wright, Velazquez and Johnson to make 30 starts next year. Teams have done worse for the #5 slot, but it's not exactly optimal.
So while it would be reasonable to say that Eovaldi is too expensive a solution, saying he doesn't fill an obvious need seems like a stretch to me.
I agree, these are the biggest questions of the offseason. There are a few paths the Sox could take to acquire pitching, and most seem better to do now than a year from now.
Josh Taylor? A 26-year-old relief pitcher who hasn’t been above AA and hasn’t been above average at any stop?
Does not compute.
Does not compute.
I'll take the above even farther:
We KNOW Eovaldi can dominate the Yankees. We've seen him do it. Eovaldi knows he can dominate the Yankees. The Yankees KNOW he can dominate the Yankees.
We KNOW Eovaldi can dominate the Astros. We've seen him do it. Eovaldi knows he can dominate the Astros. The Astros KNOW he can dominate the Astros.
We KNOW Eovaldi can dominate in the Post Season. We've seen him do it.
Is there any Eovaldi replacement that we can say any of the above about?
Sure, his arm might implode/explode/fall off but that can be said for literally every pitcher. Recently published reports state that Eovaldi's doctor gave Eo a clean bill of health and has no additional concerns for Eovaldi than he would with any other pitcher.
So, if not Eovaldi, then who? Realistically, who?
We didn’t know Eovaldi could dominate the post season before he did. Nobody had Eovaldi on their radar at this time last year and I’m not saying that Eovaldis grow on trees, but given his injury history, I’m not ready to go crazy for Nathan Eovaldi.
In a year we could be having the same conversation about another Nathan Eovaldi that Dombrowski picked up at the deadline.
In a year we could be having the same conversation about another Nathan Eovaldi that Dombrowski picked up at the deadline.
All we KNOW is what has already happened.
We do not KNOW if it'll happen again.
I like Eo. I do. Especially at 40/50m. 80m+, not so much.
would you rather go after Keuchel or Corbin? how big a window do you think they have (knowing Porcello and Sale are UFA next year along with X, Pearce, Moreland, etc). Basically its 2019 and 2020.
basically you NEED to sign a FA pitcher this year with expectation that you'll be losing one or two of your top four starters next year (and that Sale, EdRod and Price all have some health questions). With no meaningful expected help coming from within unless you are betting on Wright. my guess is that Corbin and Keuchel get more $ for longer. And Sox don't need another lefty, they need a hard-throwing RHP. EO is the guy. HE's the most logical player they can acquire to keep them at or near the top of the league in 2019 and 2020 before salary and FA hell descends.
basically you NEED to sign a FA pitcher this year with expectation that you'll be losing one or two of your top four starters next year (and that Sale, EdRod and Price all have some health questions). With no meaningful expected help coming from within unless you are betting on Wright. my guess is that Corbin and Keuchel get more $ for longer. And Sox don't need another lefty, they need a hard-throwing RHP. EO is the guy. HE's the most logical player they can acquire to keep them at or near the top of the league in 2019 and 2020 before salary and FA hell descends.
Per Fangraphs, Eovaldi is a "unicorn": https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/nathan-eovaldi-is-a-unicorn/
Can you name one previous Red Sox deadline pitching acquisition who accomplished anything close to what Eovaldi did? Eric Gagne? Erik Bedard? Addison Reed? Billy Wagner?
Exactly!
If they can’t re-sign Eovaldi, and knowing that Sale/Porcello will need to be replaced after 2019, would a trade centered around Benintendi or Devers for Thor be wise or just poor roster management? You’d probably have to spend near Eovaldi money to sign their replacement (Pollack or Donaldson?) unless you think Chavis is ready to step up sooner.
Amen to this. Losing Eovaldi/Kelly/Kimbrel, this team desperately needs to acquire right-handed velocity.
In addition to Eovaldi, I hope DD tries hard to liberate one of Taillon, Luis Castillo, and Jon Gray, and maybe kick the tires on a pre-breakout guy like Jose Ureña, who the Marlins might not want to pay arbitration rates for.
I get that this is somewhat irrational, but when I see people talk about how important it is to sign Eovaldi on here, I can't help but get flashbacks to everyone clamoring to re-sign Nuñez last year. And I'll save you all some time: I know that this makes no sense. But I can't help it.
That list is nice. I never said that Eovaldi stinks or that he did poorly last year. What I’m asking is whether he’s worth the money in the future when you consider his injury history and his position on the team (fourth or fifth starter).
In the coming years Betts, Sale, JBJ ERod, and Porcello need contracts. Edit: I forgot about Bogaerts. A year or two after that Benni and Devers. There is a de facto salary cap in baseball. If you give Eovaldi what he wants this off season, who aren’t you going to sign in the next few years?
Yes Eovaldi was/is great but he’s easier to replace than Sale or Betts or Bradley. If Eovaldi comes back to Boston on a Pearce, team friendly deal, I’m down. But I’m not paying Eovaldi what the top of his market value is, it’s just not smart business sense. Paying top dollar for superstars don’t submarine a franchise, paying top dollar for mediocre to good players does.
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I would view re-signing Eovaldi as essentially replacing Porcello a year early. I don't see them re-signing both Sale and Porcello next year - at most one, maybe neither, but Sale would be the priority if he's healthy in '19. We can't afford to pay Porcello ($20m, give or take) and still have the money we need for X and Mookie.
Could CJ Cron be a possibility? DFA'd by the Rays, targeted to make 5.2 million next year via arb.
Perhaps he compels DD to move one of the trio of catchers? Against lefties one of Beni/JBJ sits, slide JD into the outfield and DH/1B combo of Pearce/Cron.
In 150 ABs against lefties in '18: .376 obp/.553 slg, 8 homers, with a neutral platoon split for his career.
Probably creates a bit of a log-jam, but it would be nice to be that much more dangerous against lefties
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25335838/cj-cron-designated-assignment-tampa-bay-rays
Perhaps he compels DD to move one of the trio of catchers? Against lefties one of Beni/JBJ sits, slide JD into the outfield and DH/1B combo of Pearce/Cron.
In 150 ABs against lefties in '18: .376 obp/.553 slg, 8 homers, with a neutral platoon split for his career.
Probably creates a bit of a log-jam, but it would be nice to be that much more dangerous against lefties
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25335838/cj-cron-designated-assignment-tampa-bay-rays
Its not on par with Eovaldi, but I have trouble lumping Wagner in with those other guys. The dude was nails. Papelbon allowed the two runs he's credited with in the postseason. For what they paid, that was a tremendous pickup, if not on the level of Eovaldi.
The Sox already have three guys who can play first and a full time DH. Unless you're looking to move Moreland, I'm not sure where Cron fits in.
Cron is maybe a too-cute DFA for the Rays, but I don't think he's a fit here now that Pearce is signed. Derek Dietrich is another useful guy that was surprise DFA'd yesterday, but he's redundant with Holt on the team. I'd absolutely take a shot on rehabbing Alex Meyer.
Barring something dramatic with the outfield, I could see bringing in Brandon Guyer to spell Beni and/or JBJ against lefties. He's a very good defensive outfielder and hits lefties well. I don't know where Happ ends up, but the AL East is about to add about 4-5 lefty starters — Corbin (I'm gonna go ahead and count him), Paxton, Borucki, Beeks, Yarbrough, Rogers — over last year's Opening Day rotations, which probably means each of our hitters will get +50-60 PAs v. LHP compared to last season.
It seems odd to talk about the "window" of a team that just won a championship. Of course they should try to win next year -- they should try to win every year -- but it seems to me that in the wake of what they just accomplished, they're not only entitled but almost obligated to shift their focus to the long term (whatever that entails exactly).
Is that true? Doesn’t it make most sense to be in GFIN for this coming year at least?
There’s no way we can sign Sale and Porcello and have room to sign Xander and Mookie. After this year then we should think long-term. It’s a shame that our prospect cupboard is pretty much bare.
There’s no way we can sign Sale and Porcello and have room to sign Xander and Mookie. After this year then we should think long-term. It’s a shame that our prospect cupboard is pretty much bare.
Maybe you start thinking that way of this team scraped into the playoffs and got hot just at the right time and won a Cinderella story World Series. But this team won 108 games and went 11-3 in the postseason and have the same core ready to go around again.
They’re obligated to give it another shot and win back to back titles.
Can you name one previous Red Sox deadline pitching acquisition who accomplished anything close to what Eovaldi did? Eric Gagne? Erik Bedard? Addison Reed? Billy Wagner?
How about Mike Boddicker? He was in the starting rotation on the 1988 and 1990 AL East Champs. I would say he qualifies although he was more of a long term aquisition.
How about Mike Boddicker? He was in the starting rotation on the 1988 and 1990 AL East Champs. I would say he qualifies although he was more of a long term aquisition.
Who is suggesting that they don't give back-to-back titles a shot?
They can consider the long term prospects of the franchise without compromising their title chances in 2019 and they can absolutely make a run in 2019 without compromising the long term. These aren't mutually exclusive things.
Williamson isn’t on par with Eovaldi, because it’s nearly impossible. But he was terrific in October 2003.
I think what I'm arguing against is the mindset that I'm seeing in a lot of posts lately that 2020+ is a lost cause, and that we have to resign ourselves to an interregnum of mediocrity while the club spends a few years reloading. Of course that's possible, but I'm not ready to call it inevitable, and therefore, I hope they do not make any moves that further compromise our likely competitiveness in 2020-24 for a marginal improvement of our chance to repeat in 2019. I'm not calling for a selloff, I'm just saying don't blow what remains of the future on the present, because the present already looks very good. We should be nurturing and augmenting the farm system, not spending it.
Absolutely and they would be foolish and irresponsible if they didn't take this approach.
Consigning 2020-22 to mediocrity also contradicts the whole point of extending Mookie. If the Sox back up the truck for him, and they should, his 28-30 seasons will be the most valuable.
Wasn’t he acquired in the off season? He opened the year as the closer, didn’t he? And had a pretty middling year before turning it on in the playoffs (along with everyone else in the pen).
No, he was acquired on 7/28/03 for Phil Dumatrait I believe. Same night Mueller hit grannies from both sides of the plate.
I’m still trying to figure out Josh Taylor. He’s a 6’5” LEFTY who throws 96. Ok. But he’ll turn 26 in spring training, hasn’t been above AA, and hasn’t been particularly good.
They got him as the PTNBL for Marerro.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/articles.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2018/05/red_sox_trade_josh_taylor_sent.amp
Upon further inspection though, his first two outings for Portland were a disaster, 3 IP, 7 H, 6 ER. The rest of the season was 34.2 IP, 8 ER. He had a 17/2 K/BB ratio in 13 AZFL innings, but also had an ERA of 7.
Seems like the type of player at risk of losing in the rule 5, but wow, is the fact that he’s in the conversation just seems to really point out how bad the farm system is right now. That they are less worried about losing Ockimey really has to put a large dent in Ockimey’s prospect value.
I think Ockimey's non-protection might be in large part a positional thing, meaning with guys like Justin Bour and CJ Cron being non-tendered, BOS isn't worried that someone will try to keep a 1B prospect on their roster all season when they can get an established one so cheaply.
This is interesting. I didn't know anything about this guy at all... yeah, 26 is very old for AA but sort of a truism at this point is about tall lefties developing control later than other pitchers. Based on just your post alone this would seem to possibly apply here enough to keep an eye on. K/BB ratio like that says something is positive.... ERA is too context driven to really extrapolate anything
i agree with this. And as I think about Eovaldi and the back of our rotation questions, he certainly fits in 2019. The question is whether they like him at whatever his cost is, going forward, more than either Sale or Porcello at whatever the Sox expect their costs to be. They will need a SP or 2 in 2020, but they'll also need $ to sign/extend the Bs. They can't afford everyone.
Thing about that truism is that the guys who get cited as the better examples of it, like Randy Johnson and Andrew Miller, had good enough "stuff" to get to the big leagues well before they harnessed their control. A 26 year old who hasn't risen past AA, even if he throws 96, doesn't strike me as a guy who has the "stuff".
Not that it makes much of a difference, but it looks like Taylor barely did rise past AA before he becomes a 26 year old next March, he got promoted to AAA just in time to pitch 2 innings in one game before the PawSox 2018 season ended.
This. From a sheer talent/production standpoint, the Sox' roster is a pretty good bet to make the playoffs, and for a variety of obvious reasons, merely making the playoffs is not an acceptable goal for the Sox. They are hunting titles, which means the entire point of this offseason should be to prime the roster for October. That almost certainly means dealing with the Yankees and Astros again. The Yankees, especially, after the Paxton trade. Eovaldi has the handedness, stuff, and track record to beat the Yankees' present lineup of largely RHH sluggers. He's a perfect Yankee-killer at this point.
Who else can you say that about? Who else has these advantages as well as a really remarkable track record from this postseason? Who else could be as appreciated in the clubhouse for that very contribution? Even on the current roster, Price, Sale and Porcello are all a bit hit-or-miss in these matchups. Edro is rumored to be the perennial breakout guy but it hasn't happened yet. Nobody on the market can make these claims. I get the risks but the upside of Eovaldi is championship level. And the downside of him signing elsewhere, including NY, could be pretty devastating.
October heroics or not, "Yankee killer" or not, Nathan Eovaldi is not a guy you sign at any cost or simply to prevent him signing somewhere else. If he will sign a reasonable deal that fits the budget without financially handcuffing the team down the road, by all means they should sign him. But he's not a guy you need to win a bidding war over.
I don't disagree with the notion of priming the roster for October, however I don't think it entirely needs to be done in December and January. The WS MVP was added in May. Eovaldi himself was a July pick up. Lots of things change over the course of a season. I don't think anyone was looking at the Red Sox roster last winter and saying "all they need is a flame-throwing righty to crush the Yankees" and they're set.
I don't disagree with the notion of priming the roster for October, however I don't think it entirely needs to be done in December and January. The WS MVP was added in May. Eovaldi himself was a July pick up. Lots of things change over the course of a season. I don't think anyone was looking at the Red Sox roster last winter and saying "all they need is a flame-throwing righty to crush the Yankees" and they're set.