I can't see them blowing the market for Eovaldi after they held the line on Corbin.Is anyone else dreading the Yankees swooping in with a last minute 5/100 offer for Eovaldi, or am I just emotionally damaged?
I can't see them blowing the market for Eovaldi after they held the line on Corbin.Is anyone else dreading the Yankees swooping in with a last minute 5/100 offer for Eovaldi, or am I just emotionally damaged?
My problem with him is the multiple concussions he had last year. Pass.I hope the Cervelli rumors are false. Can’t exactly remember why, but he’s one of my least favorite MLB players.
When I think of him, I think of a colossal douche with every STD known to man. Also PEDs and back zits.
Moot now, but "remnants" in the literal sense, the remaining quantity.Depending on your metric, Happ is anywhere from the best to third-best starter on the FA market. Wouldn’t remnants would be guys like Edwin Jackson?
Lynn is weird. Casual Yankee fans seem to hate him, but he had a decent year — particularly if you want to discount his first month because of the late sign. He had an excellent 3.35 FIP after May 22, and finished with higher velocity than he ever had with the Cards.Moot now, but "remnants" in the literal sense, the remaining quantity.
Some players are going to take smaller contracts once they no longer have multiple bidders. Happ is a risk for this because his performance demands a larger contract but his age suggests otherwise. Lynn has the added complication of his poor postseason showing.
To update, we need two guys from this list before 2020. (The bold names are free agents this year, unbolded names available next.)Pick three pitchers from this list:
Buchholz, Bumgarner, Cahill, Cashner, Chacin, Cole, Estrada, Fiers, Gibson, G. Gonzalez, Graveman, S. Gray, Happ, Harvey, Hellickson, E. Jackson, Keuchel, Lynn, Miley, S. Miller, Morton, Nova, Odorizzi, Pineda, Pomeranz, Porcello, Roark, Ross, Ryu, Sabathia, Sale, An. Sanchez, Santana, Shields, Shoemaker, Verlander, Wacha, Wheeler, Wood
Who do you bump from the rotation? Or do you go with the (often-discussed, rarely-implemented) 6-man rotation?I'd see if we can also sign Morton now rather than two of the unbolded names above next year.
It's a limited market for Porcello, but one season of him tracks perfectly with Cueto's and Ohtani's TJS. He's a lock for 180 innings, but with his decreasing velocity, rising walk rate, rising home run rate, I'm not sure we'd want them.Who do you bump from the rotation? Or do you go with the (often-discussed, rarely-implemented) 6-man rotation?
This plan seems a little too clever by half - for starters, why wouldn't one of those teams just sign Morton and be done with it?It's a limited market for Porcello, but one season of him tracks perfectly with Cueto's and Ohtani's TJS. He's a lock for 180 innings, but with his decreasing velocity, rising walk rate, rising home run rate, I'm not sure we'd want them.
I’d rather Morton than Porcello this year and Morton over whomever we’d get to replace Porcello next year. Signing him to, say, a 2/$32M contract would also keep him from going to one of our rivals.Why are we proposing to trade Porcello again?
I'll take steady-eddy reliable Porcello over old Morton, thanks. I'm sure I'm not alone in that thought, either.I’d rather Morton than Porcello this year and Morton over whomever we’d get to replace Porcello next year. Signing him to, say, a 2/$32M contract would also keep him from going to one of our rivals.
It’s essentially what Cashman is doing with Gray. I agree it’s probably too cute, but I’m not a big Porcello guy.
You forgot Ryan “Full Tilt” Braiser....
Bullpen just needs one addition. I'm assuming both Johnson and Wright will be in there unless they think they can get a decent prospect for either of them. Add Barnes and FA (Kelly or Robertson) and I think that's a solid core.
Who's your closer?I don't think DD will be getting too cute trying to trade Peter to sign Paul (and then trade for Mary). The rotation is set and it's dominant (yes... like every other team out there... assuming good health across the rotation).
Sale
Price
Porcello
Eovaldi
Rodriguez
I'm putting them in this order as 1-5 not arguing about ability as much as I think there's some seniority mixed with ability in how they'll start the year.
Bullpen just needs one addition. I'm assuming both Johnson and Wright will be in there unless they think they can get a decent prospect for either of them. Add Barnes and FA (Kelly or Robertson) and I think that's a solid core.
I’m certain that Morton is cool with being a 6th starter.They should be in on Morton regardless of Porcellos impending free agency. Rodriquez, Wright, Johnson, Velazquez is not quality depth.
Rodriquez can be cool with the bullpen.I’m certain that Morton is cool with being a 6th starter.
129.2 innings, 146 Ks, 3.82 ERA, 13-5 ain't too shabby from your #5.Is 120 innings from your #5 starter quality?
One guy that's a solid 3 and three others that are viable 5/6s isn't quality depth? Since when?They should be in on Morton regardless of Porcellos impending free agency. Rodriquez, Wright, Johnson, Velazquez is not quality depth.
I don't get it either.One guy that's a solid 3 and three others that are viable 5/6s isn't quality depth? Since when?
Yeah, it makes no sense to send someone from this rotation out on a jet plane, for 500 miles.I don't think DD will be getting too cute trying to trade Peter to sign Paul (and then trade for Mary). The rotation is set and it's dominant (yes... like every other team out there... assuming good health across the rotation).
Sale
Price
Porcello
Eovaldi
Rodriguez
I'm putting them in this order as 1-5 not arguing about ability as much as I think there's some seniority mixed with ability in how they'll start the year.
With no shirt on his back or a penny to his name.Yeah, it makes no sense to send someone from this rotation out on a jet plane, for 500 miles.
He's kinda like Clay Buccholz in that regard. He's good, but for like half a season.Seems to me the only flaw/concern with ERod so far in his career has been his durability. But if the bottom line expectation for him is to be the #5 in the rotation, his ability to throw 180+ innings isn't necessarily the highest priority for him to be a valuable asset.
Don't understand the shade Semper threw on Rodriguez.
Career: 4.12 era, 107 era+, 3.97 fip, 1.28 whip, 9.0 k/9
2018: 3.82 era, 114 era+, 3.65 fip, 1.27 whip, 10.1 k/9
What's not to like about that? Dude is just 25. Will be 26 when the season starts, just now should be entering his prime. 3.0 bWAR pitcher last year, making way less than he's worth. You don't find many better values than that. I'd love to see him take the next step (like 18 wins, though yeah, that isn't as relevant, 3.33-3.50 era, something like that), but if he stayed as THIS, that's still a well above average starting pitcher, and he's the #5. Absolutely ZERO to complain about there.
Difference is he maintains a certain level of performance and doesn't alternate between ace level pitching and absolute garbage every season.He's kinda like Clay Buccholz in that regard. He's good, but for like half a season.
I wouldn't characterize Rodriguez as having durability concerns - he missed time last season after a collision at first base. His performance in the first half of the 2018 season seems to indicate that he was fully recovered from the knee issues.Seems to me the only flaw/concern with ERod so far in his career has been his durability. But if the bottom line expectation for him is to be the #5 in the rotation, his ability to throw 180+ innings isn't necessarily the highest priority for him to be a valuable asset.
Why no team could ever win its division if Brian Johnson, Steven Wright, and Hector Velasquez are getting 25 starts combined! Let alone a World Series!They should be in on Morton regardless of Porcellos impending free agency. Rodriquez, Wright, Johnson, Velazquez is not quality depth.
Do you consider the Rays a rival? http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/rays/2018/12/07/rays-considering-ex-astro-charlie-morton-among-starting-pitching-options/I’d rather Morton than Porcello this year and Morton over whomever we’d get to replace Porcello next year. Signing him to, say, a 2/$32M contract would also keep him from going to one of our rivals.
It’s essentially what Cashman is doing with Gray. I agree it’s probably too cute, but I’m not a big Porcello guy.
I didn't mean to imply that he has durability concerns moving forward so much as the only negative on his resume so far is that he has gotten hurt often. In other words, there should be no concerns over his performance based on what he's done to date. If he's healthy, he produces. He's got nothing chronic to be worried about unless you believe the knee injuries that plagued him for a couple years aren't behind him. And for the first time in a couple years, he made it through the whole season without that particular injury flaring up. Whether it is because he's past it or because it was preempted by the ankle injury remains to be seen. I'm confident he's good to go, but there's prudence in only counting on him for 140-150 innings in 2019 and anything beyond that is a happy bonus. That's still a hell of a fifth starter.I wouldn't characterize Rodriguez as having durability concerns - he missed time last season after a collision at first base. His performance in the first half of the 2018 season seems to indicate that he was fully recovered from the knee issues.
Yes. The Rays won 90 games last year.Do you consider the Rays a rival? http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/rays/2018/12/07/rays-considering-ex-astro-charlie-morton-among-starting-pitching-options/
Main problem would be the years he wants; too risky.I could see a team splurging on Kimbrel though. I'd be surprised if his price goes down enough that we are able to sign him on a good deal.
He seems like a guy who could get stuck in QO purgatory.Buster Olney on Michael Kay podcast said today Dombrowski is comfortable waiting for Kimbrel’s price to go down.
And in a division with two 100 game winning teams no less.Yes. The Rays won 90 games last year.
This may be for another thread, but I think we're nearing a course correction.The AL had some pretty shitty teams this year. Only six even had a .500 record. And five had 95 or more losses, three with over 100. Win totals were skewed and I think we need to start adjusting to it as more and more we’re going to see a divide.
I don’t really think it’s about trading for prospects - those Astros and Cubs made their core through the draft (Rizzo and Russel being the exceptions, but neither were for huge pieces, they were just good deals). And yes, only one team can pick first but it’s not about picking first in MLB, especially the way the draft is built now. It’s about your budget, since you can’t spend whatever you want anymore. Only a few of the guys you listed were #1 picks. The difference is that teams have started to realize it’s not worth adding a mediocre free agent for $10M to add a win or two. So we’re seeing less of teams like the Pirates signing a Jeromy Burnitz to feign trying to win to their fans. As the incomes start to abandon the middle class, much like the NFL with a rookie QB on a cheap deal, teams will be built like you mention, with a young cheap core and a few super high priced guys. And since there’s no floor in MLB, there’s no need to sign that 1 WAR FA for $10M. Teams are making their money through revenue sharing, not ticket sales so they don’t mind a few down years to get to the top. I don’t think any tide is changing I think it’s going to get more divided. But ymmv.This may be for another thread, but I think we're nearing a course correction.
The Cubs and Astros remade themselves by being abjectly horrible for a few years. Since that time, a number of teams have imitated that strategy of building a contender by stripping the 25 man roster all the way to the studs. Let's call it a "deep" rebuild — the kind where you expect to lose 100 games for three years — to contrast it from older, shallower rebuilds.
But now, we're in a situation where the limitation of that strategy are starting to emerge. That strategy assumes that you can put together a core of elite players — Correa, Altuve, Springer, Bregman; Rizzo, Bryant, Russell, Baez, Schwarber, Contreras — by trading anything of value from the 25 man, and pocketing the resulting high draft picks. But there are a limited number of franchise-altering prospects. If two or three teams are in deep rebuilds at a given moment, you can pocket four or five of these players. The Astros and Cubs are good because they have all of these All-Star level players in their pre-FA years.
(They got there a different way, but we could say the same thing for the Red Sox: when you get literally 31 fWAR from pre-FA players, as the 2018 Red Sox did, led by their homegrown position player core of Betts (11), Bogaerts (5), Benintendi (4), and Bradley (3), it's not rocket science to build a contender — you complement it with high-priced FA like Price and JDM, whom you can afford because of how much surplus value is accrued by the pre-FA portions of the roster.)
But if eight or nine teams are in deep rebuilds, it will be harder to make that process work the way the Cubs and Stros did it. More teams will be chasing those handful of top prospects, and the returns on those trades will be lower. Only one team can get the top overall pick; in this year's June draft, teams with 95 losses will pick 6th and 7th. As recently as 2016, a 95 loss team would have picked 2nd, after the 103 loss Twins.
You risk investing years of losses, and coming out of your deep rebuild with only a few stars, not a franchise altering core.
To be clear, I don't see it in the recent past, I anticipate it in the near future. It's one thing to lose 90 games and get the #6 pick. It's another thing to lose 90 games and pick #12.I don’t really think it’s about trading for prospects - those Astros and Cubs made their core through the draft (Rizzo and Russel being the exceptions, but neither were for huge pieces, they were just good deals). And yes, only one team can pick first but it’s not about picking first in MLB, especially the way the draft is built now. It’s about your budget, since you can’t spend whatever you want anymore. Only a few of the guys you listed were #1 picks. The difference is that teams have started to realize it’s not worth adding a mediocre free agent for $10M to add a win or two. So we’re seeing less of teams like the Pirates signing a Jeromy Burnitz to feign trying to win to their fans. As the incomes start to abandon the middle class, much like the NFL with a rookie QB on a cheap deal, teams will be built like you mention, with a young cheap core and a few super high priced guys. And since there’s no floor in MLB, there’s no need to sign that 1 WAR FA for $10M. Teams are making their money through revenue sharing, not ticket sales so they don’t mind a few down years to get to the top. I don’t think any tide is changing I think it’s going to get more divided. But ymmv.
Edit: I’m not sure how you see a course correction when a full quarter of the league lost 95 or more games and three at 100 or more. That has to be unprecedented.
It isn't. In 2002 and 6 teams lost 100 or more and 7 lost at least 95. 8 lost 90. Whether 2018 is a trend or an outlier remains to be seen.Edit: I’m not sure how you see a course correction when a full quarter of the league lost 95 or more games and three at 100 or more. That has to be unprecedented.
TB, KC, DET, and MIL lost over 100 (with all but KC losing 106). You are correct about 7 with 95 losses or more though. Still an impressive amount of ugly.It isn't. In 2002 and 6 teams lost 100 or more and 7 lost at least 95. 8 lost 90. Whether 2018 is a trend or an outlier remains to be seen.