2018-19 Offseason Thread

timlinin8th

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My thoughts:
Kimbrel: Thanks for the pick, make a QO, bye bye
Kinsler, bye bye, Pedey is back or if not try Lin. Holt as insurance. (He's signed, right?)
Pomeranz: Bye
-----

Pearce. He's 35. I'm ok with a Morelandian 1 year/$5 mil, to see if Sam Travis or some other young guy is ready in 2020. The WS is SSS

Kelly: sign if reasonable. Compete for closer or 8th inning job, in spite of high career BB/IP rate. I am optimistic we found something. I'm comfortable with him for 1 inning with 3 run lead. 13-0 was impressive, but SSS

Eovaldi: I'm infatuated with him. I think his arm will fall off sometime, so I'm ok with a short length contract. Even at high salary. I'm ok with him either as starter or reliever, Cora and DDski can make that decision. I want him back. I wouldn't go 5 years though.
Yeah I'm with all this. Its not a case of falling in love with all the FA if most are leaving (specifically an expensive one in Kimbrel) as much as identifying a few specific ones to keep. I want them to make it happen with Eo. Starter? Closer? Who knows, but give him some health related options. Also don't think a 35 year old journeyman gets that much despite his postseason performance, and Pearce is worth more to the Sox than other teams and don't think the cost will be prohibitive. Everyone else on the list is probably out.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Trade Benintendi? Are you on hold with WEEI?
Chawson has wanted to trade Benintendi forever because "he isn't as good as we think." For some reason, he thinks Ben10 is a finished product in his 2nd full season and is going to decline. I'm not sure why.
 

OurF'ingCity

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I'm fully committed to the love fest the next few weeks but I imagine at some point this board's gonna want to talk about that .252/.305/.344 line since August 9.
He's heading into his age 24 season and isn't eligible for free agency until 2023, and you think two months of underperforming is a reason to explore a trade? I guess if the return was amazing but I don't think they should be actively looking beyond telling teams "he's off the table unless you blow me away right now."
 

chawson

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Chawson has wanted to trade Benintendi forever because "he isn't as good as we think." For some reason, he thinks Ben10 is a finished product in his 2nd full season and is going to decline. I'm not sure why.
When did I say he was going to decline?
 

gedman211

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FWIW, Buster Olney said Evo could command up to $100 million. Tough to see him go, but I don't see us coming up with that kind of bread. We may end up rolling the dice with Wright's knee for the #5.
 

chawson

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You compared him to Mike Greenwell after 1988. Maybe you meant something else with that comment?
I think the situation is comparable, not the player. After '88 a lot of folks thought the Sox had a 25-year-old left-handed perennial MVP candidate on their hands (or, I imagine they did, I was eight). They did not. They just had a very good player who couldn't really figure out lefties (at least until many years later).

I've been consisting in saying Beni is really really good. I just think perception outstrips reality a bit, and I'd happily trade him if a guy like Taillon, Snell, Nola or Syndergaard were available.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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Some interesting points. Cots has earmarked the following amounts for possible non-tender or trade candidates:
  • Tyler Thornburg $3 mil
  • Sandy Leon $3 mil (I know they love him, but something has to give on the catching front)
  • Carson Smith $1 mil
  • Brandon Workman $1 mil
  • Heath Hembree $1 mil
  • Blake Swihart $1 mil

The Sox also owe $18.455 mil on Pablo's deal for next year + the 2020 option. That might mean that any extension for Mookie, Xander, etc might not be announced until after the 2019 season starts to play the AAV game.
 

Traut

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A few thoughts:

1. Sports Orthopedic expert Chris Geary wrote the following on Pedroia's surgery last year:

That being said, the odds are in Pedroia’s favor that following his long rehab, he will be able to return with a knee which should allow him to stay on the field more reliably than in 2017.

The Red Sox and Pedroia obviously play his health close to the vest. But given, Geary's optimistic position and Pedroia traveling with the team throughout the season - I have a hard time believing he retires. The guy loves baseball. And has a ton of money on the table. For better and likely worse they're stuck with him;

2. Regarding Pearce the Sox got Mitch Moreland for 2/13 around Christmas time last year. Moreland is 2-3 years younger than Pearce (who the Red Sox got for nothing from the Jays). He is the definition of a spare part. Just not that much of a market for him. His value may be greatest to the Sox but it's hard to see any overpay here.

3. All that I have heard regarding Price is his teammates love him and he loves his teammates and playing for the Red Sox. At points it has been clear the Twidiots and Mediots have gotten under his skin. But really hard to see him turning down 4/127. And if he thinks he can get more on the open market the Sox should be ecstatic. His comments to me last night struck me of those of many pro athletes who develop chips on their shoulder with enemies real and imagined.

4. Eovaldi is going to be paid a boatload on this market. I think Olney is probably closer to right than people think. He'll be 29 next year. And appears both healthy and good. Would 5/100 shock me? It would not. Pitching is a premium.

5. Kelly on the other hand is a risk the Red Sox should take. He will certainly be cheaper than Eovaldi. And the Sox are going to need arms. Given the amount they are going to have to spend on their homegrown talent, the relative fungibility of closers, and the luxury tax - I'm thinking Kimbrel is certainly elsewhere next season.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I think the situation is comparable, not the player. After '88 a lot of folks thought the Sox had a 25-year-old left-handed perennial MVP candidate on their hands (or, I imagine they did, I was eight). They did not. They just had a very good player who couldn't really figure out lefties (at least until many years later).

I've been consisting in saying Beni is really really good. I just think perception outstrips reality a bit, and I'd happily trade him if a guy like Taillon, Snell, Nola or Syndergaard were available.
I doubt anyone on this board thinks Benintendi is a perennial MVP candidate. There might be some who thinks he's a perennial all star. He's a young, improving player who is already very good.

I understand some people thinking that about Mike Greenwell but Mike Greenwell put up a 148 and 160 OPS+ in his first 2 seasons. Ben10 has put up a 103 and 123.
 

BaseballJones

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Benintendi doesn't do anything at an elite level, but he does everything pretty darned well. And he's just 24 and costs nothing. That guy is worth a LOT. 3.9 bWAR this year and would be more if he didn't play in Fenway and didn't play next to JBJ.
 

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Who are you spending it on from that list?

Starting pitchers
Patrick Corbin (29 years old, 6.3 WAR)
Dallas Keuchel (31, 3.6)
Clayton Kershaw (31, 3.5) -- Can opt out of the two years and $65 million remaining on his contract.
J.A. Happ (36, 3.2)
Charlie Morton (35, 3.1)
Lance Lynn (32, 2.9)
David Price (33, 2.7) -- Can opt out of the four years and $127 million remaining on his contract.
CC Sabathia (38, 2.5)
Anibal Sanchez (35, 2.4)
Nathan Eovaldi (29, 2.2)
Gio Gonzalez (33, 2.0)
Hyun-Jin Ryu (32, 2.0)
Trevor Cahill (31, 2.0)
Derek Holland (32, 2.0)
Clay Buchholz (34, 1.9)
Wade Miley (32, 1.5)
Matt Harvey (30, 1.4)
Jeremy Hellickson (32, 1.2)
Garrett Richards (32, 1.0)
Tyson Ross (32, 1.0)
Brett Anderson (31, 0.9)
Edwin Jackson (35, 0.7)
Adam Wainwright (37, 0.5) -- Reached agreement on one-year contract with Cardinals. (Oct. 11, 2018)
Marco Estrada (35, 0.5)
Francisco Liriano (35, 0.3)
Bartolo Colon (46, 0.2)
Jaime Garcia (32, 0.0)
Drew Pomeranz (30, -0.3)
Miguel Gonzalez (35, -0.3)
Chris Tillman (31, -0.4)
Hisashi Iwakuma (35, N/A) -- Didn't appear in the Majors in 2018.
I think Matt Clement and David Wells are also available.

I don't know. If Price opts out (or doesn't opt in), I think the money stays in house for resigning or extending current guys.

I also think that payroll could take a small step back, meaning we'll probably lose more of these guys than we'll like. Of our FAs, the guy with the highest ceiling, and therefore the one I hope they're most aggressive in keeping, is Eovaldi. In fact, I hope they've talked briefly with his agent already today!
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Benintendi doesn't do anything at an elite level, but he does everything pretty darned well. And he's just 24 and costs nothing. That guy is worth a LOT. 3.9 bWAR this year and would be more if he didn't play in Fenway and didn't play next to JBJ.
And while the Greenwell comp is ok, Beni has a broader skill set. He's much better defensively and faster.
 

Drek717

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I think Matt Clement and David Wells are also available.

I don't know. If Price opts out (or doesn't opt in), I think the money stays in house for resigning or extending current guys.

I also think that payroll could take a small step back, meaning we'll probably lose more of these guys than we'll like. Of our FAs, the guy with the highest ceiling, and therefore the one I hope they're most aggressive in keeping, is Eovaldi. In fact, I hope they've talked briefly with his agent already today!
I'd be surprised if it steps back next year. Dombrowski pretty clearly built a two year window here. JDM's opt out, Sale, Porcello, X's arb3 season, etc. all line up through 2019.

I'm expecting them to make up spending money by giving Kimbrel a QO and letting him walk, that likely/hopefully turns into short deals for Pearce and Kelly. I think it is also very likely they give Pomeranz a make good deal, as they've been claiming his velo is back up.

They otherwise keep this group as in-tact as possible and go for it again in 2019, with a ton of money coming off the books after that, so if they sort long term deals out with Betts/Bogaerts/Bradley they'll announce them early in the 2019 season to avoid tax ramifications as much as they can, but otherwise they break the cap again in 2019 and then look to drop below to reset the tax in 2020.
 

gedman211

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Who are you spending it on from that list?

Starting pitchers
Patrick Corbin (29 years old, 6.3 WAR)
Dallas Keuchel (31, 3.6)
Clayton Kershaw (31, 3.5) -- Can opt out of the two years and $65 million remaining on his contract.
J.A. Happ (36, 3.2)
Charlie Morton (35, 3.1)
Lance Lynn (32, 2.9)
David Price (33, 2.7) -- Can opt out of the four years and $127 million remaining on his contract.
CC Sabathia (38, 2.5)
Anibal Sanchez (35, 2.4)
Nathan Eovaldi (29, 2.2)
Gio Gonzalez (33, 2.0)
Hyun-Jin Ryu (32, 2.0)
Trevor Cahill (31, 2.0)
Derek Holland (32, 2.0)
Clay Buchholz (34, 1.9)
Wade Miley (32, 1.5)
Matt Harvey (30, 1.4)
Jeremy Hellickson (32, 1.2)
Garrett Richards (32, 1.0)
Tyson Ross (32, 1.0)
Brett Anderson (31, 0.9)
Edwin Jackson (35, 0.7)
Adam Wainwright (37, 0.5) -- Reached agreement on one-year contract with Cardinals. (Oct. 11, 2018)
Marco Estrada (35, 0.5)
Francisco Liriano (35, 0.3)
Bartolo Colon (46, 0.2)
Jaime Garcia (32, 0.0)
Drew Pomeranz (30, -0.3)
Miguel Gonzalez (35, -0.3)
Chris Tillman (31, -0.4)
Hisashi Iwakuma (35, N/A) -- Didn't appear in the Majors in 2018.
That's pretty brutal. Looking at this list, I'm thinking a Price opt-out might not be so unlikely. Corbin is about to be a Kajillionaire.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Hanley’s $18M is off the books for 2019, yeah? Something I can’t do now... or likely never...but would like to see all the payroll coming off the books assuming Price stays and everyone else walks.
 

Devizier

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I think Eovaldi is gone. Even before the postseason, I figured he would get paid upwards of $60M and he has probably pushed that number up another $20M+ over the last month.

I could see Pomerantz back on a pillow contract. Or maybe a second-tier veteran like Cahill.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Hanley’s $18M is off the books for 2019, yeah? Something I can’t do now... or likely never...but would like to see all the payroll coming off the books assuming Price stays and everyone else walks.
Cot's is already on top of it. All FAs off the books, Price still on the roster, plus arbitration estimates for the 13 eligible players and estimates for the pre-arb and 40-man shuttle guys puts them at roughly $212M in luxury taxable salary. The luxury tax threshold is $206M so $246M is the line where penalties get most severe (i.e. the line they were flirting with this year).
 

DJnVa

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Rasputin

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I honestly wonder if they're going to look into trading Christian Vazquez.

They pretty clearly thought he was the catcher of the near future when they gave him a three-year contract, but since then both Saney Leon and Blake Swihart have seen their stock rise and Vazquez' fall. If they're convinced that Leon is the better defensive catcher and that Swihart is an adequate backup, they might consider trying to get something of value and/or squeezing out a little salary threshold room.

I'm not advocating it really--I think catcher is the second most important area to have deep depth--so much as I am wondering how they deal with the seeming fact that Leon has passed Vaz on the depth chart.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I'm not advocating it really--I think catcher is the second most important area to have deep depth--so much as I am wondering how they deal with the seeming fact that Leon has passed Vaz on the depth chart.
Did he? Vaz played more in the playoffs.
 

Drek717

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I honestly wonder if they're going to look into trading Christian Vazquez.

They pretty clearly thought he was the catcher of the near future when they gave him a three-year contract, but since then both Saney Leon and Blake Swihart have seen their stock rise and Vazquez' fall. If they're convinced that Leon is the better defensive catcher and that Swihart is an adequate backup, they might consider trying to get something of value and/or squeezing out a little salary threshold room.

I'm not advocating it really--I think catcher is the second most important area to have deep depth--so much as I am wondering how they deal with the seeming fact that Leon has passed Vaz on the depth chart.
Val was the primary playoff starter and hit better against playoff pitching than I think anyone should have expected him to.

Leon is the biggest question to me. Above there was an estimate of him getting a $3M arb award v. Swihart’s $1M. If that’s the choice I don’t see how they keep Sandy around when he is clearly the worst of the bunch with the bat, the oldest, and not clearly better defensively than Vazquez.
 

Rasputin

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Did he? Vaz played more in the playoffs.
It certainly felt that way to me. Leon started the first two games against the Yankees and they didn't hesitate to pinch-hit for Vazquez in a key spot early in the Astros series.

Mind you, this has been sitting in the back of my head for five or six weeks now so it's entirely possible times have changed.
 

Cesar Crespo

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It certainly felt that way to me. Leon started the first two games against the Yankees and they didn't hesitate to pinch-hit for Vazquez in a key spot early in the Astros series.

Mind you, this has been sitting in the back of my head for five or six weeks now so it's entirely possible times have changed.
Leon had 15 PA in the playoffs, 7 in the WS, Vaz had 38 and 15.

edit: Vaz still being the starter doesn't preclude them from trading him though.
 
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chawson

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If Sale needs some kind of offseason surgery that would imperil his 2019, I wonder what the Sox would do with that option. Would it make sense to "decline" it and re-work his 2019 salary into some extension?
 

ehaz

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I think they probably non-tender two out of Smith, Thornburg, Workman, and Hembree (Thornburg makes the most). Doesn't free up a ton of room, but I still think they can re-sign Pearce. 35 year old platoon guy that's limited defensively, and might be amenable to take a hometown discount. If you feel good about Chavis, maybe that money is better spent elsewhere but I don't think it will be unreasonable. Agreed on Eovalidi - no path at resigning him unless you can move Porcello.
 

dhappy42

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Sale: I'd wait to see how he's throwing next year. I'm definitely concerned about the shoulder still. Sale at 93-95 is still a good pitcher. Sale at 97-100 is clearly a next level pitcher. And the money you give a "good" pitcher vs a "next level" pitcher is very different.

Kimbrel: Qualifying offer seems about right, which he'll decline. Feltman is a guy who could end up being the closer in the second half of the season, so maybe they just need a bridge to him for the first half. It would be fine for Kimbrel to be back for one year with Feltman in the wings for 2020. If Kimbrel declines and is gone, thank you for three electric seasons and one world championship. Finding a replacement should be doable.

Kelly: Maybe HE is the replacement, but I am not sure. I think he's still better suited for "ace reliever" kind of guy. It's all about control for him. He had it in the playoffs, and we saw the results. When he loses it, he struggles (not surprising). I could see a 3-year contract at like $10-12 million a year for him. That's not what *I* would want to spend but I could see it. Barnes has been really good and he and Brasier should be the two top relief arms next year most likely.

Eovaldi: Definitely want to keep him. But I don't know what the price tag will be.

Pomeranz: Obviously gone. Same with Kinsler.

Pearce: Would love to have him back - seems like a perfect fit for this team in every way. Shouldn't be too much. He and Moreland are a really good platoon with the other serving in a PH role. Like that combo a lot.

Will be curious to see if Smith or Thornburg can give them ANYTHING next year. Devers should be improved, and the kid has already been terrific.

Coming through the pipeline could be: Chavis, Feltman, Dalbec, Shawaryn (who could see his fastball go from 93-95 up to 95-97 if he converted to a relief role, which he may be better suited for)
Re Pearce. I’d love for the Red Sox to sign him, but if I were Pearce I’d want a full-time job next year, not the RHB side of a platoon. But that should not be a huge problem for the Sox. First, they were very fortunate with injuries this year (aside from Pedroia being out the whole season.) If any of JDM, Benny, JBJ, or (god forbid) Mookie were hurt, Pence would become a full-time player fast, playing both 1B and DH. Second, Cora rests regulars often, so the RHB side of a platoon might not be so bad. Third, having Pence start over Moreland most of the time regardless of the pitcher’s handedness would not be a bad thing... except for Moreland, obviously.
 

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Re Pearce. I’d love for the Red Sox to sign him, but if I were Pearce I’d want a full-time job next year, not the RHB side of a platoon. But that should not be a huge problem for the Sox. First, they were very fortunate with injuries this year (aside from Pedroia being out the whole season.) If any of JDM, Benny, JBJ, or (god forbid) Mookie were hurt, Pence would become a full-time player fast, playing both 1B and DH. Second, Cora rests regulars often, so the RHB side of a platoon might not be so bad. Third, having Pence start over Moreland most of the time regardless of the pitcher’s handedness would not be a bad thing... except for Moreland, obviously.
Uh....Pence?
 

DJnVa

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Re Pearce. I’d love for the Red Sox to sign him, but if I were Pearce I’d want a full-time job next year, not the RHB side of a platoon. But that should not be a huge problem for the Sox. First, they were very fortunate with injuries this year (aside from Pedroia being out the whole season.) If any of JDM, Benny, JBJ, or (god forbid) Mookie were hurt, Pence would become a full-time player fast, playing both 1B and DH. Second, Cora rests regulars often, so the RHB side of a platoon might not be so bad. Third, having Pence start over Moreland most of the time regardless of the pitcher’s handedness would not be a bad thing... except for Moreland, obviously.
Dude is 35. If he’s holding out for a fulltime gig more power to him, but I don’t see that.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I think they probably non-tender two out of Smith, Thornburg, Workman, and Hembree (Thornburg makes the most). Doesn't free up a ton of room, but I still think they can re-sign Pearce. 35 year old platoon guy that's limited defensively, and might be amenable to take a hometown discount. If you feel good about Chavis, maybe that money is better spent elsewhere but I don't think it will be unreasonable. Agreed on Eovalidi - no path at resigning him unless you can move Porcello.
Smith and Thornburg seem like obvious non-tenders to me. Smith's not expected to be ready to pitch until sometime next season and even then, who knows what he'll have to give. Thornburg is more likely due to his expected salary, but considering he was sent home before the season ended and was never a consideration for post-season use, he seems to be a long shot to make the roster anyway.

That doesn't save them much, but it probably off-sets raises to guys like Barnes.
 

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Smith and Thornburg seem like obvious non-tenders to me. Smith's not expected to be ready to pitch until sometime next season and even then, who knows what he'll have to give. Thornburg is more likely due to his expected salary, but considering he was sent home before the season ended and was never a consideration for post-season use, he seems to be a long shot to make the roster anyway.

That doesn't save them much, but it probably off-sets raises to guys like Barnes.
I disagree about Thornburg. I think they saw enough "stuff" that they want to see what he looks like with a healthy off-season regimen and Spring Training. He was playing catch up all this year and was never going to be counted on for the post season.
 

LesterFan

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Is it a lock that Kimbrel declines the qualifying offer? He's turning 31 and while he had a good season, it wasn't great and certainly not elite. He took a big step back from his 2017 performance. K% from 49.6% to 38.9%, BB% went from 5.5% to 12.6%. FIP from 1.42 to 3.13. And his postseason numbers were ugly to say the least. Add in the fact that a signing team will have to forfeit pick(s) and/or international money to sign him if he declines the QO, his market may be limited. Wade Davis declined QO from the Cubs last year and ended up getting a big contract from the Rockies so I guess the same can/will happen with Kimbrel.

Would we be OK with Kimbrel accepting the QO? Thanks for everything but I rather that money be spent elsewhere. His season was very similar to Matt Barnes's and I don't think anyone here thinks Barnes is worth $17.9 million.
 

MuellerToldHisTale

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I think Eovaldi is gone. Even before the postseason, I figured he would get paid upwards of $60M and he has probably pushed that number up another $20M+ over the last month.

I could see Pomerantz back on a pillow contract. Or maybe a second-tier veteran like Cahill.
Is this something we'd definitely pass on? I'm obviously still high off Eo's postseason performance, but feel there's value in a 4/80-100 deal. He's 28, with the stuff of a legit #2 who'd serve as our #3/4 - plus he has a solid track record vs MFY.
 

DJnVa

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Is this something we'd definitely pass on? I'm obviously still high off Eo's postseason performance, but feel there's value in a 4/80-100 deal. He's 28, with the stuff of a legit #2 who'd serve as our #3/4 - plus he has a solid track record vs MFY.
In the tiny chance Price opts out, maybe.
 

Dahabenzapple2

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McCutcheon to play left?!?!?

Really?!?

3 years 40 million for poor defense and below average cratering offense?!?!
 

Cesar Crespo

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McCutcheon to play left?!?!?

Really?!?

3 years 40 million for poor defense and below average cratering offense?!?!
How is he a below average offensive player? He may be on the decline, but he's still a pretty good hitter. 123 OPS+ last year, 118 OPS+ this year. I'd rather they keep the current OF in tact but McCutchen isn't a bad hitter. Just the opposite.
 

RIrooter09

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I wonder what Lowrie will fetch on the open market? Might be a good option of Pedroia is truly done.
 

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Re Pearce, he's not a guy that a contending team will sign to start. The dumpster fire O's could, but does he want to go there and then get dealt again mid-season? He might relish a 1 year deal from the Sox with the likelihood that he won't get dealt and the team will be good.
 

MakeMineMoxie

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I wonder what Lowrie will fetch on the open market? Might be a good option of Pedroia is truly done.
Pedroia's health and effectiveness is crucial to the Sox. I don't want to see them in a David Wright situation where they keep hoping he'll come back and signing short-term stop-gap players to fill in. Unfortunately, I don't think we'll know for sure about Pedroia until Spring Training & the Jed Lowrie boat will have long since sailed.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Pedroia's health and effectiveness is crucial to the Sox. I don't want to see them in a David Wright situation where they keep hoping he'll come back and signing short-term stop-gap players to fill in. Unfortunately, I don't think we'll know for sure about Pedroia until Spring Training & the Jed Lowrie boat will have long since sailed.
They still have Nunez and Holt with Lin on the farm. It was good enough this year.
 

BillLeesJumpShot

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Benintendi doesn't do anything at an elite level, but he does everything pretty darned well. And he's just 24 and costs nothing. That guy is worth a LOT. 3.9 bWAR this year and would be more if he didn't play in Fenway and didn't play next to JBJ.
Agreed. I would like someone to figure out why his power dropped the second half and help him fix it, but he is solid.