2018-19 Offseason Thread

Savin Hillbilly

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Jul 10, 2007
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The wrong side of the bridge....
I think Sandy Leon is an option as well as Thornsburg. There will be cheaper options at catcher that can offer similar overall value to Leon. It would be hard not to, really.
His projected arb salary is $2.3M. Who are the guys available for less than that who will be better than Leon? (They have to be better to be worth non-tendering him for, since he knows our pitchers well and is esteemed highly by them, which is an advantage no replacement will have.)
 

Plympton91

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Oct 19, 2008
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His projected arb salary is $2.3M. Who are the guys available for less than that who will be better than Leon? (They have to be better to be worth non-tendering him for, since he knows our pitchers well and is esteemed highly by them, which is an advantage no replacement will have.)
The advantage of finding a replacement for Leon would be that Cora wouldn’t be tempted to reinstate Leon’s noodle bat as the starter the first time Vazquez had an 0-9 streak.

And it would give Blake (740 OPS vs righties) Swihart more at bats.

I’d offer Leon a contract with no raise from 2018 and nontender him if he doesn’t take it. Every million they save may count toward not getting over the upper threshold again.
 

chawson

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Aug 1, 2006
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I wonder if the D-Backs are shopping Alex Avila. He’s got 1/$4.1m on his contract and makes a much better timeshare with Vazquez than Leon.

Reuniting him with old friend JDM could pay dividends too. Avila was an absolute crusher on the Tigers in early 2017 after having made obvious swing path changes.
 
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Cesar Crespo

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Confused here. That article, which is almost a year old says Betts was behind Bryant for the highest. Were you suggesting that $11M is too low for his next contract?
he's not in his first year of arbitration and he's going to get way more than 11 mil.
 

Spelunker

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Jul 17, 2005
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Yeah, I know. But why was a nearly year-old article posted and why are thre people suggesting he be given $11M?
Because that initial post that he was quoting was mistaken thinking that Betts was going into his first year of Arb (where the record year 1 reward was just under 11mil).

The article refuted that by showing that Betts went to arb last year, and is already making $10+. So he won't set the record at/above $11, he'll get a bump to $17-20.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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MLB Trade Rumors projects Mookie will get a raise of $8.2m, to $18.7. I hope that they can sign him to a deal without going to a hearing like they did last year.
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
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Jul 10, 2007
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The wrong side of the bridge....
According to Fangraphs, the Giants are considering trading Madison Bumgarner? (They recommend against).

He has one year left at $12M; obviously his health is a concern but it is something to keep an eye on.
So much no. Bumgarner:

1) showed signs of decline in 2018 (e.g. career-worst K/BB) which were obscured by the AT&T factor -- he allowed an .811 OPS on the road;
2) has only one year of control, which means that acquiring him will give the Sox three starting pitchers to replace next winter;
3) would bring us back to a 4-LHP rotation, which seems...shall we say, suboptimal?
 

ehaz

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I'd like to see the Sox kick the tires on Garrett Richards. He'll likely be out all (if not most) of 2019 recovering from TJ, but he could be a Eovaldi type steal in 2020 if he comes back strong on the second year of a 2 year deal. Could help replace Porcello or Sale. 3.38 FIP since 2014 but only 514 IP in that same time frame. He was trying to avoid TJ by rehabbing ala Tanaka but didn't work.

 

chawson

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I'd like to see the Sox kick the tires on Garrett Richards. He'll likely be out all (if not most) of 2019 recovering from TJ, but he could be a Eovaldi type steal in 2020 if he comes back strong on the second year of a 2 year deal. Could help replace Porcello or Sale. 3.38 FIP since 2014 but only 514 IP in that same time frame. He was trying to avoid TJ by rehabbing ala Tanaka but didn't work.

I like this idea but if Richards is looking for a one-year pillow contract Boston is probably not high on his list.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I'd like to see the Sox kick the tires on Garrett Richards. He'll likely be out all (if not most) of 2019 recovering from TJ, but he could be a Eovaldi type steal in 2020 if he comes back strong on the second year of a 2 year deal. Could help replace Porcello or Sale. 3.38 FIP since 2014 but only 514 IP in that same time frame. He was trying to avoid TJ by rehabbing ala Tanaka but didn't work.

Considering the dead money on the books and the luxury tax situation, can the Sox really afford to take on a pitcher who is all but guaranteed not to contribute in 2019? Unless he comes on a minor league deal, I can't see why they should do it, even if there's a chance he's a big contributor in 2020.
 

FinanceAdvice

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Re-sign Pearce, sign Britton to close on a short term rebound contract, re-sign JoKe if possible to a 2 year deal, and pay Eovaldi, he's 28, in his prime and has shown that he can excel on the biggest stage, Porcello and Sandoval will come off the books after next year.
FWIW, Id make signing Eovaldi as my No. 1 priority. Good age, great postseason and I believe the 2 TJ's are well behind him. Also can handle the pressure of playing in Boston. This would make an awesome rotation: Sale, Price, Eovaldi, Porcello, and Rodriquez. Next resign at 1b, Pearce. Still debating in my mind on Kelly.
 

FFCI

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Does signing Eovaldi (or even Kimbrel) make more sense for the Red Sox than an "outside" free agent in terms of draft picks or for any reason related to luxury tax penalties?

Is there any difference between re-signing "their own" players vs. signing "new" players or all free agents considered the same?
 

pokey_reese

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FWIW, Id make signing Eovaldi as my No. 1 priority. Good age, great postseason and I believe the 2 TJ's are well behind him. Also can handle the pressure of playing in Boston. This would make an awesome rotation: Sale, Price, Eovaldi, Porcello, and Rodriquez. Next resign at 1b, Pearce. Still debating in my mind on Kelly.
Good news, Pearce is already signed for 2019.
 

kneemoe

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edoug

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Does signing Eovaldi (or even Kimbrel) make more sense for the Red Sox than an "outside" free agent in terms of draft picks or for any reason related to luxury tax penalties?

Is there any difference between re-signing "their own" players vs. signing "new" players or all free agents considered the same?
It does affect the luxury tax because they probably will have higher salaries. No Bird exceptions in baseball. They will lose out on a draft pick if Kimbrel comes back.
 

simplicio

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Addition by subtraction?
Funny thing is Keith Law mentioned the move in his chat today and had nothing but positive things to say about Baird. He said people absolutely love working with him. Though I suppose he could be a delightful colleague and still make poor baseball decisions.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Jul 19, 2005
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I'd like to see the Sox kick the tires on Garrett Richards. He'll likely be out all (if not most) of 2019 recovering from TJ, but he could be a Eovaldi type steal in 2020 if he comes back strong on the second year of a 2 year deal. Could help replace Porcello or Sale. 3.38 FIP since 2014 but only 514 IP in that same time frame. He was trying to avoid TJ by rehabbing ala Tanaka but didn't work.

I don't think this was ever a real possibility, but he signed with the Padres this afternoon.
 

JimD

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Addition by subtraction?
According to Sean McAdam's piece at BSJ, Baird played a primary role in scouting both Carl Crawford and Rusney Castillo. Maybe he's also the guy behind some of the team's better signings, but man, those are two pretty big black marks on his resume.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Thornburg re-signs on a one-year, non-guaranteed deal. Offers tendered to all other players on 40-man not already under contract.

 

moondog80

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Sep 20, 2005
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I've got to think this has been leaked by a team in order to get Kimbrel dragged on social media for a few days. But that truly is an insane ask.

It's silly, but that's how these things work. Your first ask and what you will settle for should not be the same thing.
 

Al Zarilla

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Funny thing is Keith Law mentioned the move in his chat today and had nothing but positive things to say about Baird. He said people absolutely love working with him. Though I suppose he could be a delightful colleague and still make poor baseball decisions.
Neither here nor there, but Keith Law is the only analyst I saw that picked the Rockies in 07.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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What

What does "one-year, non-guaranteed deal" mean?
Haven't seen anything that explains his contract situation specifically, but in the past, that's meant that they can cut him during spring training and only owe a portion of the contract instead of the whole thing.

The contract is actually for less money than he's been paid the last two years, but includes incentive bonuses to raise the total to about where he's been.

 

moondog80

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Sep 20, 2005
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According to Sean McAdam's piece at BSJ, Baird played a primary role in scouting both Carl Crawford and Rusney Castillo. Maybe he's also the guy behind some of the team's better signings, but man, those are two pretty big black marks on his resume.

He was competent enough to keep his job for 12+ years here, a period where they won 3 World Series with 3 very different rosters. Even if you don't count 2007 because he didn't have much to do with that roster, that's still an impressive record. If he was responsible for all the misses and none of the successes, I imagine they would have fired him.
 

Koji’s Slider

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Craig Kimbrel is looking for a six year deal, in other news I’d like to marry Miranda Kerr. Both are about as likely to happen.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Aug 15, 2006
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I would like to thank Craig Kimbrel for his contributions to the Boston Red Sox. See you at the 5 year on field reunion.
 

mauf

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It's silly, but that's how these things work. Your first ask and what you will settle for should not be the same thing.
True, but you can overdo it. The way Boras handles Stephen Drew’s free agency is a good example — Boras floated a $100 million ask, the Cardinals (the only team that desperately needed a shortstop) moved quickly to lock up Jhonny Peralta for 4/54, and no other suitor ever materialized.

A club that might contemplate committing tens of millions to a closer is, by definition, a club with no good closing options on hand. I think some of those potential suitors will hear the nonsense Dave Meter is spouting and decide they can’t afford to watch other options fall off the market while they wait for him to return to reality.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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True, but you can overdo it. The way Boras handles Stephen Drew’s free agency is a good example — Boras floated a $100 million ask, the Cardinals (the only team that desperately needed a shortstop) moved quickly to lock up Jhonny Peralta for 4/54, and no other suitor ever materialized.

A club that might contemplate committing tens of millions to a closer is, by definition, a club with no good closing options on hand. I think some of those potential suitors will hear the nonsense Dave Meter is spouting and decide they can’t afford to watch other options fall off the market while they wait for him to return to reality.
Definitely what I was about to chime in with.... yeah... getting an agent that knows the difference between "shooting high" and "being stupid" is important. 6 years for Kimbrel isn't going to happen and if they're even serious about that as their high water mark, then there's a good chance they'll float right on past teams that are looking and end up with another Stephen Drew situation... possibly even a JD Martinez situation (I think if they were looking for something like 5/$25 million last offseason, Martinez could have had that w/o the option years), which granted, wasn't bad, but wasn't even close to what Boras wanted and could have hurt his market.

IMO Kimbrel should be shooting on his high end for 4 years at $20M each. The way he pitched towards the end of the season and through the playoffs... IMO he'd be lucky if he got that. Those were some serious warning signs
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Given his past excellence but also that he is not young and is coming off a very good not great season and mediocre postseason, he should be setting his ceiling at a couple mil past Chapman and settling for a bit less (4 yrs or fewer $). 6 years won't fly....
 

Al Zarilla

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I have no idea what this means but watching Koji was sublime. Papelbon was exciting
Kimbrel could strike out the side, blowing people away with curveballs and fastballs they could hardly see, much less hit. Or (rarely, taken the entirety of his time with the Sox) he could have bad control in an outing. Overall, a very exciting guy, although you could trust Koji more. Pap, I don’t know.