2018 AFCCG: Jags v. Pats (Non-Brady Edition)

Seels

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I fear both. By that I mean I think the Pats have like a 60+% chance of winning either way. If it's the Jags, Bortles is obviously not a person many can see winning a championship. But it'll probably be the Steelers.

With the Steelers -- Brown, even if playing, is hurt, and Shazier is the only one that matched up with Gronk. I think I'd rather see the Steelers just because it feels so godamn good when we beat them.
 

dcmissle

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I was a bit surprised to hear Romo tonight forecasting a three-point game tomorrow, either way, with Bortles having the game in his hand at the end. Romo thinks Jags tougher matchup than Steelers for the Pats.
 

dcmissle

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According to Le'Veon Bell, the Steelers have already won:

They never stop chirping. It’s always someone or two or three. You’d never catch Villanueva doing it, or Big Ben. That leaves 51 other possibilities, with Tomlin encouraging it.
 

bankshot1

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Jax D is good, but I can't see Bortles doing enough to beat the Pats. Plus there would be a happy to be there element.

Benny has the weapons to get into a shoot-out, and stuff could happen, plus the Steelers seem obsessed with the Pats, if they don't screw up tomorrow they may be maniacs in the AFCCG.

I hope Jax wins at Heinz
 

Kliq

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Jacksonville for a couple reasons. First is that although we won, Pittsburgh easily could have beaten the Pats earlier this year and if Brown is healthy they are an experienced team with a capable QB. I just can’t see Jacksonville and Bortles being as dangerous, even with their defense. People being afraid of Fournette need to realize that he has not been very dangerous during the second half of the season, and I love Fournette.

Second, if we lose to Jacksonville, I can tip my cap to a young, hungry team going to their first SB. I DO NOT want to encourage Tomlin, Steeler fans and all the other Pittsburgh bullshit by having the best New England at home. Those two weeks leading up to the SB will be brutal.
 

jodyreeddudley78

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Is there a worse sports persona than the one that Shaughnessy has cultivated when it come to his Patriots takes? It is tired, unfunny, and predictable. I was listening to 98.5 through TuneIn and they were highlighting his appearance on a Tennessee radio show. CHB was actively rooting against the Patriots. So weird. I don't understand how someone like him doesn't realize that having relevant teams makes him more relevant on a national level.

Edit: re DCMissle
 

Soxy

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I want the Jags because that would mean that the Steelers lost. Fuck the Steelers.
 

Ed Hillel

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If Brown’s hobbled, bring me Pitt. If healthy, Jax. Either way, they play like tonight and it doesn’t matter.
 

brandonchristensen

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Jags.

Steelers O is legit. Plus in the unfortunate event of a loss, I'd rather it be to the Jags than fucking MIKE FUCKING TOMLIN.
 

rodderick

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The Jags. It'd take about 13 points to beat them. If Brown is healthy for the AFCCG, the Steelers are capable of winning a shootout. The only hope the Jaguars would have is a catastrophic performance from the Pats' OL.
 

Reverend

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I take this (opening scene, 18 seconds in):


and add what Garoppolo did to JAX

and I basically figure that Belichick had JAX sorted well before others even noticed they were getting good... but also may already, like, have them sorted.

But I sorta feel that way about Pittsburgh too. Meh.
 

uncannymanny

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I wanted the Steelers, but they’ve been so cocky and overlooked the Jags so much, I’d really love to see them lose tomorrow. AB doesn’t sound as slam dunk as he did a few days ago.

I’m fine with whoever wins tomorrow. They’ll both be tough in different ways. Confident we’ll be prepared for either.

Seven straight AFCCG. Not too bad, folks.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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I want the Steelers, just to shut them the fuck up, if for no other reason. I think they’re pretty even (Jax D balances out Pitt O in my opinion) but fuck Pitt. I want to beat the will to live out of them.
 

BigSoxFan

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How soon we all forget the first preseason game!

This is actually a tough call for me. Steelers clearly have the much, much better offense but Pats offense would have a much easier time with their defense. While they would move the ball and score points, they’d be hard pressed to match the Pats’ offense without some turnover luck.

On the flip side, the Jags have a very tough defense with a strong DL and secondary playmakers but a shitty QB. They look to be the team that can best replicate the style that has historically given the Patriots the most problems.

Just look at the numbers of the Patriots’ playoff losses in the BB era:

2015 AFCCG: 20-18 Broncos
2013 AFCCG: 26-16 Broncos
2012 AFCCG: 28-13 Ravens
2011 SB. : 21-17 Giants
2010 DIV. : 28-21 Jets
2009 WC. : 33-14 Ravens
2006 AFCCG: 38-34 Colts
2005 DIV. : 27-13 Broncos

In 6 of those 8 losses, the Patriots failed to score 20 points and the 2006 AFCCG is the only high scoring playoff loss. All others have been games where the offense essentially got shut down. Jacksonville has the personnel to do this.

Verdict: Give me the Steelers
 

jercra

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I can't recall ever rooting for Pitt to win. That being said, if the Pats of the 2nd to 4th quarter of tonight show up it won't matter. The balance they showed between run, pass and D is basically unbeatable by a team with obvious weakness. Obviously, shit happens, but at home, meh, neither team scares me. The Pat's beat Pitt at home in a game they basically played as perfectly as they could and the Pats have more weapons than they did then. Good luck to the Jags scoring 28+ with Bortles. It sounds cocky, and they could lose, obviously, but the Pats are better than either team. If they lose it will be an upset either way.
 

amarshal2

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How soon we all forget the first preseason game!

This is actually a tough call for me. Steelers clearly have the much, much better offense but Pats offense would have a much easier time with their defense. While they would move the ball and score points, they’d be hard pressed to match the Pats’ offense without some turnover luck.

On the flip side, the Jags have a very tough defense with a strong DL and secondary playmakers but a shitty QB. They look to be the team that can best replicate the style that has historically given the Patriots the most problems.

Just look at the numbers of the Patriots’ playoff losses in the BB era:

2015 AFCCG: 20-18 Broncos
2013 AFCCG: 26-16 Broncos
2012 AFCCG: 28-13 Ravens
2011 SB. : 21-17 Giants
2010 DIV. : 28-21 Jets
2009 WC. : 33-14 Ravens
2006 AFCCG: 38-34 Colts
2005 DIV. : 27-13 Broncos

In 6 of those 8 losses, the Patriots failed to score 20 points and the 2006 AFCCG is the only high scoring playoff loss. All others have been games where the offense essentially got shut down. Jacksonville has the personnel to do this.

Verdict: Give me the Steelers
You should see a therapist about those repressed memories.
 

CaptainLaddie

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Fucking whatever. Just crush these shithead teams. We're better. We've been better for 17 years. We have the best player and best coach in NFL history. Fuck everyone else.
 

Reverend

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Fucking whatever. Just crush these shithead teams. We're better. We've been better for 17 years. We have the best player and best coach in NFL history. Fuck everyone else.
:love:

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From the neutral fan perspective, I’d like to see Jax. Brady/McDaniels trying to solve the Jax D would be a great strategic matchup.

From a Pats fan perspective, bring on Pitt. Mostly because they’re a bunch of whiny tools and it’s funny when they lose.
 

koufax32

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The RT position situation gives me a little pause when immediately wanting to say JAX. It will be interesting to see how NE goes forward in “next man upping” there.
 

grsharky7

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I'm torn on this question. I feel like it is hard to get scared of Jacksonville, but I'd love to see the Pats beat the Steelers again. After they took them out of the AFC title game last year it seemed like it broke the Steeler fanbase. They've been focused on nothing but the Pats for the last 365 days. The last game just made the fans even more crazy about New England, it is all they discuss on the radio each morning. If the Pats were to lose that game though, life around here would be a living hell.

The Steelers will have Haden back for this game, he was out the first time with a broken leg bone. Brown will also be back even if it is at 75%.
 
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Sportsbstn

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I’m in the whoever camp, but lean Pittsburgh only because I want no excuses for other fans. Bring me the 2nd best team in the AFC and let’s get it on. The Steelers defense is shit as is the Jags offense. The patriots are getting healthy and at home, bring whoever you want to town.
 

BaseballJones

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I don't fear anyone but I fear everyone.

The Pats will be home and they'll rightly be the favorite against either team.

Either team could give the Pats real problems. I see the case for wanting either team. But give me the Jags, even with Coughlin in their organization.
 

yecul

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Really tough call as both teams are very strong on one side of the ball. In the past the Patriots have been beaten by the good defenses especially ones that can get pressure with fewer pass-rushers. I think the Jags can do that so I guess Steelers. At the end of the day it doesn't matter that the Patriots be favorite either way and they're going to have to beat good teams this time of year.
 

Toe Nash

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Jags because I want to get tickets to the game and I figure they will be available much more cheaply if it's v JAX.
 

Buck Showalter

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Jax D is good, but I can't see Bortles doing enough to beat the Pats. Plus there would be a happy to be there element.

Benny has the weapons to get into a shoot-out, and stuff could happen, plus the Steelers seem obsessed with the Pats, if they don't screw up tomorrow they may be maniacs in the AFCCG.

I hope Jax wins at Heinz
my sentiments exactly.
 

rslm

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Go Jags, but short of that I hope they beat the piss out of the Steelers.

Either way I will be there next week!
 

dcmissle

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I don't fear anyone but I fear everyone.

The Pats will be home and they'll rightly be the favorite against either team.

Either team could give the Pats real problems. I see the case for wanting either team. But give me the Jags, even with Coughlin in their organization.
The first line above is so effin good.

My big concern about the Steelers is probability. We match up well with them. I’ll grant us a coaching edge every time. The game is at home. But these have been, at their core, essentially the same teams for several years. Every year is its own entity — but play them often enough, you’re apt to lose one.
 

Mystic Merlin

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The first line above is so effin good.

My big concern about the Steelers is probability. We match up well with them. I’ll grant us a coaching edge every time. The game is at home. But these have been, at their core, essentially the same teams for several years. Every year is its own entity — but play them often enough, you’re apt to lose one.
Yeah, I think this is right.

Indy was gonna eventually beat us, too, they got a game on the carpet, a flu bug hit the Pats and Peyton played a great game.
 

Jungleland

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The part of me that wants to beat the best says bring on Pittsburgh. The rest of me says the pats will have a much easier time taking out Jacksonville and beyond that, if they don't, I'd personally be much happier seeing the Jags in the Super Bowl than the Steelers. I don't see much reason to root for the Steelers today unless you have an irrational fear of a "tainted" championship won facing the murderers' row of Mariota-Bortles-Foles. Any opposing fan who cares about that is going to have a reason to crap on New England regardless, so it's just not worth worrying about.
 

Cellar-Door

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I don't really care.
I'm surprised though that everyone is focusing on Bortles as making JAX easy, and fears the good offensive team. Most of the Patriots' playoff losses in the last decade come against teams with good defenses and shitty QBs:
2016 Broncos
2013 Ravens
2012 Giants
2011 Jets
2010 Ravens
2008 Giants

The only game they lost over that time based on an elite offense is probably the 2014 Broncos.

I think this team can beat either PIT or JAX, but JAX much more closely resembles the teams that have knocked us out in the past.
 

Comfortably Lomb

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The part of me that wants to beat the best says bring on Pittsburgh. The rest of me says the pats will have a much easier time taking out Jacksonville and beyond that, if they don't, I'd personally be much happier seeing the Jags in the Super Bowl than the Steelers. I don't see much reason to root for the Steelers today unless you have an irrational fear of a "tainted" championship won facing the murderers' row of Mariota-Bortles-Foles. Any opposing fan who cares about that is going to have a reason to crap on New England regardless, so it's just not worth worrying about.
You know what generally no one really remembers years down the line? Beating the "best" en route to the title. It has to be some sort of generational super-team or unique top tier rival situation (e.g., 2004 Yankees) to be remembered. No one will remember the 2017 Steelers if they get bounced today.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I don't really care.
I'm surprised though that everyone is focusing on Bortles as making JAX easy, and fears the good offensive team. Most of the Patriots' playoff losses in the last decade come against teams with good defenses and shitty QBs:
2016 Broncos
2013 Ravens
2012 Giants
2011 Jets
2010 Ravens
2008 Giants

The only game they lost over that time based on an elite offense is probably the 2014 Broncos.

I think this team can beat either PIT or JAX, but JAX much more closely resembles the teams that have knocked us out in the past.
Agreed, though I’d add the 2006 Colts who won a flu-and-heat aided shootout as well.

All that being true I still in my gut feel Jax is an easier matchup somehow