2018 AFCCG: Jags v. Pats (Non-Brady Edition)

Royal Reader

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I've been relatively chill about everything Pats since the Hawks Super bowl, but my circle of NFL fans have just taken the douchiness to another level this week. I think I'd enjoy a 17-0 more than a 31-10.
 

Reverend

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Bedard had a very reassuring article today on BSJ about Brady and Favre and toughing it out thru injuries. In Bedard's opinion, and he covered both extensively, it will take a lot more than a sprained thumb to get Brady off the field. He even referenced Favre playing thru an injured thumb:
In the opener against the Raiders, Favre again wrenched his thumb on a throw that caused him immense pain. He, of course, stayed in the game, and authored [a] game-winning drive in the final two minutes against the Raiders.
Favre was in so much pain on the drive, that he flipped the ball to the official left-handed. But he completed 6-of-7 passes and passed up a game-tying field goal for a 1-yard score to Jeff Thomason with less than 15 seconds remaining.
After the toss, Favre immediately went the bench, took off his pads and was in tears from the pain.
“It looked like someone ran over his thumb with a car,” safety Leroy Butler said after the game.


Bedard described another game:
In 2003, Favre broke his right thumb, and, after a bye, returned to beat Randy Moss and the Vikings in the Metrodome 30-27 as Favre threw three touchdown passes.
Things is, the issue isn’t just pain but structural weakness. It’s possible for a sprain in that ligament to be such that the thumb “gives way” under force/pressure disirregardless of the amount of pain the person might be able to withstand. In such circumstances, the throw may suffer.

That’s what it fucking feels like, anyway.

But I doubt it’s anything a little ‘tussin can’t handle.
 

Koufax

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At today's presser: "Bill, will Tom be a game time decision?"
Bill: "It's Friday."
 

Red Averages

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I am worried about Brady but also expect quotes after the game from the Pats defense along the lines of:
"They said there were only 3 good defenses left playing, but we knew there were 4 and we showed them why"
Yes - feels like the most underappreciated aspect in either game is the fact that the NE defense & special teams could outscore Jax by itself.
 

Red Averages

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The D and ST has scored one TD all season (KO return vs Denver). Even if you like the D, they are not a turnover-happy bunch.
... so you're saying they are due?

In all seriousness, if we look at the 6 losses the Jags had, Bortles threw 5 TDs, ran 2 TDs, lost 1 fumble and threw 10 picks.

Jax is 20th in special teams DVOA compared to NE 3rd. These are very big advantages that are getting hidden in the Brady drama.

Jax implied over/under is 18.5 and I'd yet to see a compelling case that they can reach the over.
 

Red Averages

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How do you calculate an implied over under?
In this case it's actually just an explicit bet - I shouldn't have written implied, which is generally easy to calculate as well using o/u and spread. Bovada for example lists it as a bet. The Patriots are 28.5
 

Dick Drago

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Going through this would be impossible without all of you on this board. I don't have to suffer and obsess alone.

And as someone said, now I'm very glad it's not Pittsburgh.
 

Captaincoop

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All I know is, the second that press conference starts, I want images of that hand, zoomed in down to single pixels, and I want uninformed lay people telling me what they see and how it impacts the game on Sunday.
 

OnWisc

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I hope he shows up with a bandage around his head and an ice pack wrapped on his non-throwing shoulder. Also wearing a hospital gown and wheeling an IV bag beside him. And wearing a jai alai basket on his hand. Because that would just make more stark that 99% of what we're gonna hear between now and gametime is bullshit.
 

Revkeith

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Apr 23, 2010
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Aren’t you conflating two different Seinfeld episodes?
Nah. When Costanza goes in for the hand model shoot, the photographer (played by an actor I only remember as Mr. Ernst from "Hey Dude") goes on a long anecdote about a previous hand model who was a chronic masturbator, which ruined his career, wrapping it up with that caption, a reference to the "contest" episode.