2018 AFCCG: Jags v. Pats (Non-Brady Edition)
- Thread starter Red Averages
- Start date
And our O-line is, well, not. Pats deserve to be favored (9.5 seems reasonable), but Jacksonville isn’t to be taken lightly.
Should we be more encouraged by the fact that they allowed 42 points to the Steelers, or discouraged by the fact that they scored 45 themselves?
As a longtime Jags season ticket holder, I will be curious to see if the "Experts" actually use the week to actually learn something about the team instead of just repeating the same perception/narrative.The ignorance is laughable.
It will be very nice to have a stress free championship game. Talk about a win win.
It will be very nice to have a stress free championship game. Talk about a win win.
The Jags defense has holes I think. Jimmy G annihilated this defense and the Steelers scored a ton today, with Brady better than both. The defensive line didn’t come anywhere near a great effort in either of the games.
Oh, it's not smoke and mirrors. They're a super talented unit and probably the best defense in the NFL. My contention is simply that they're not some immovable object, as was shown today.
They gave up 390 yards to the Titans, 471 yards to the Jets (!!!), 401 yards to Seattle, 545 yards today against Pittsburgh. There have been games where teams have made big plays and been able to move the ball against them. Their numbers are skewed somewhat because they absolutely destroyed a lot of bad offenses. They were 1-3 against playoff teams in the regular season. The Patriots will be the best team they've played all season, but quite a bit.
Yes, this Jacksonville team has a lot of the elements of previous teams that have sent the Pats home in the playoffs. But unlike the Jets, Giants, and Ravens, this Jacksonville team has never faced this Pats team when it mattered. I can see Jacksonville having success early but I think the Pats will make better adjustments and be a step ahead of the Jags. If the Pats lose, it's going to be because they lose the turnover battle, can't keep Brady upright, and can't convert third downs.
Should also note that for all the talk of how the Pats own the Steelers, they own the Jags even harder. Jags are 1-10 lifetime against the Patriots, with their one win being a home playoff game against Scott Zolak.
Last edited:
New England will score points and the D will step up. Keys will be turnovers and keeping Brady upright.
The best scoring defense since week 5 is the Patriots. Not saying they are elite but the points are the be all at the end of the day.
What would the spread have been against the Steelers? Not -9.5. Vegas knows a thing or two, this is the easier matchup by far.
Stack the box and dare Bortles to beat you will be the strategy. I was guessing -9 Pats as the line.
Defense:
Campbell has tailed off a bit as the year has worn on.
Also, the secondary has become more prone to giving up big plays. Not sure why but might be a weakness that Cooks can expose once or twice.
The biggest weakness, and I’m sure Bagwell will attest to this as well, is that they have the uncanny ability to completely lose their minds a few times a game. Expect at least 30 yards worth of penalties from unsportsmanlike or personal fouls.
Offense:
Fournette has tailed off as well. Most of this, presumably, is due to a nagging ankle injury that I’m sure was not helped today.
The young WR’s have shown up in the absence of Robinson and Hurns (although a Hurns is back now). Their primary skill set has been go routes and they’ve capitalized on that with a decent amount of success as the season has worn on. McCourty and Harmon will have their hands full.
Bottles is a very gifted runner. If there is no contain on him he could easily get 70-80 yards from scrambling. Expect the Russell Wilson approach of letting him sit in the pocket. He absolutely will get fidgety and do something stupid if you have the patience to let him.
Campbell has tailed off a bit as the year has worn on.
Also, the secondary has become more prone to giving up big plays. Not sure why but might be a weakness that Cooks can expose once or twice.
The biggest weakness, and I’m sure Bagwell will attest to this as well, is that they have the uncanny ability to completely lose their minds a few times a game. Expect at least 30 yards worth of penalties from unsportsmanlike or personal fouls.
Offense:
Fournette has tailed off as well. Most of this, presumably, is due to a nagging ankle injury that I’m sure was not helped today.
The young WR’s have shown up in the absence of Robinson and Hurns (although a Hurns is back now). Their primary skill set has been go routes and they’ve capitalized on that with a decent amount of success as the season has worn on. McCourty and Harmon will have their hands full.
Bottles is a very gifted runner. If there is no contain on him he could easily get 70-80 yards from scrambling. Expect the Russell Wilson approach of letting him sit in the pocket. He absolutely will get fidgety and do something stupid if you have the patience to let him.
Pats had joint summer practices with the Jags and a preseason game with them so they will be up to speed with their personnel. Scouting and game planning will be a bit easier. It's very hard to see Bortles on the road against a BB team getting it done in the playoffs but Mark Sanchez did it so who knows.
Yes, and his admonition about the JAGs possibly being the tougher matchup needs to be taken seriously.
I’l still take the matchup we have. I was concerned about the Steelers eventually breaking through. And although road Ben is less threatening than home Ben, by a big margin statistically, his performance this afternoon with those receivers and Bell was fucking terrifying.
The Pats’ o-line needs to be taken to the woodshed by Scar and B.B. in advance of the game. It has to be squared away, or the offense could collapse.
Don’t gift wrap 14 points to them like the Steelers did and they should be fine. Should be a big base defense day stacking the box on Fournette. Spy Bortles on 3rd downs. Their receivers outside of Lee aren’t anything special.
Defensively, they’re obviously really good. Bell was good in the passing game so maybe White/Lewis can be too. Screens would be big this week to take advantage of their rush. I’m afraid of Ramsey and Buoye bodying up Hogan and Cooks so maybe they’ll use more bunch formations to avoid jams. I’d also use tempo more to tire their rushers out. Running the ball has to be north and south as they’re too fast side to side.
Defensively, they’re obviously really good. Bell was good in the passing game so maybe White/Lewis can be too. Screens would be big this week to take advantage of their rush. I’m afraid of Ramsey and Buoye bodying up Hogan and Cooks so maybe they’ll use more bunch formations to avoid jams. I’d also use tempo more to tire their rushers out. Running the ball has to be north and south as they’re too fast side to side.
The Jags only had 8 sacks in the last 4 games including today. They are a fundamentally sound defense but like the Steelers (who actually had more sacks in the season) later in the season they weren’t great at putting pressure on the QB
Last edited:
Yeah ... no, that's too simplistic a comparison to make. Jags are talking the excitement of the moment. Coughlin and Marrone will have them buttoned up starting tomorrow
Looking at Jax’ offensive stats (Bortles 14/26 for 214; Fournette 25/109; no one with more than 3 receptions or 57 yards), it’s hard to believe they scored 45.
On the flip side, for all the talk about their stellar D, they gave up 41 pts, over 450 yards passing, 5 passing TDs).
My buddy, Matt Kelley (a fantasy sports guru of sorts — SeoulSox is a big fan) watched the game with me last night and he told me that there’s a weird story about Bortles that he has no idea how his “stuff” is until it’s the middle of the game, and thus his variance is pretty extreme.
On the flip side, for all the talk about their stellar D, they gave up 41 pts, over 450 yards passing, 5 passing TDs).
My buddy, Matt Kelley (a fantasy sports guru of sorts — SeoulSox is a big fan) watched the game with me last night and he told me that there’s a weird story about Bortles that he has no idea how his “stuff” is until it’s the middle of the game, and thus his variance is pretty extreme.
100% agree. PArt of moving on is psychological "See ya later" or "f*** you" to the guys you just beat.Guys have been through an entire week on Steeler prep, they are pumped to beat them. By the time I type this they will be on to the Pats.
The hated team will get way more eyeballs, although the Super Bowl is traditionally not matchup dependent.
Worth noting that JAX is 20th in DVOA vs. TE and 15th vs. RB.
Making Ramsay and Bouye spectators wouldn't be a bad strategy.
Making Ramsay and Bouye spectators wouldn't be a bad strategy.
Came here to post this. Guessing we'll see a lot of Lewis/White action with Gronk/Dola in the middle and Cooks/Hogan stretching the field. The key, as always, will be if the O-line can generate enough time for that to work, otherwise we'll be in the quick pass routine.
Thankfully outside of a few terrible turnovers, it will be very hard for the Jags to run the field on the Pats D multiple times and score TDs on their own.
Don’t gift wrap 14 points to them like the Steelers did and they should be fine. Should be a big base defense day stacking the box on Fournette. Spy Bortles on 3rd downs. Their receivers outside of Lee aren’t anything special.
Defensively, they’re obviously really good. Bell was good in the passing game so maybe White/Lewis can be too. Screens would be big this week to take advantage of their rush. I’m afraid of Ramsey and Buoye bodying up Hogan and Cooks so maybe they’ll use more bunch formations to avoid jams.
Defensively, they’re obviously really good. Bell was good in the passing game so maybe White/Lewis can be too. Screens would be big this week to take advantage of their rush. I’m afraid of Ramsey and Buoye bodying up Hogan and Cooks so maybe they’ll use more bunch formations to avoid jams.
Pressures worry me as much as sacks. Nobody handles interior pressure particularly well, and that went a long way to accounting for our more notable playoff losses.
Unfortunately, easier said than done. Maybe not 14 points, but the Patriots quite likely could have 1-2 turnovers next week. This is a very turnover-happy defense, and in Brady's 9 playoff losses, he's had turnovers in 7 of them. In fact, in those 7 games, he's had a total of 12 interceptions and fumbled 4 times.
So yeah the Pats could have problems there.
It will be interesting to see if they use Ramsey on Gronk at all. He’s clearly their biggest passing threat and he played some safety in college. Keep Bouye outside on Cooks.
Despite the big plays they gave up today, I’m a bit scared of taking too many shots downfield to Cooks when the offense might otherwise be rolling with the short and medium stuff again.
I mentioned this in today’s game thread, but given the reputation of the Jags D, I’ve been surprised at how open the middle of the field often was against both Buffalo and Pittsburgh. Taylor missed a lot of open men last week.
So while I respect their defense a lot, if—and it’s a big if, especially with Waddle hurt last night—the OL can keep Brady upright and mostly pressure-free, I think the Pats win by 2 TD’s.
If the Jags bring pressure more consistently and/or force a few turnovers, then it’s a close, competitive game.
But their offense doesn’t scare me at all. I suspect Patricia and B.B. will have the defense very well prepared to take on a very pedestrian Jags offense.
So while I respect their defense a lot, if—and it’s a big if, especially with Waddle hurt last night—the OL can keep Brady upright and mostly pressure-free, I think the Pats win by 2 TD’s.
If the Jags bring pressure more consistently and/or force a few turnovers, then it’s a close, competitive game.
But their offense doesn’t scare me at all. I suspect Patricia and B.B. will have the defense very well prepared to take on a very pedestrian Jags offense.
This is one game where I don't really worry if the WRs are taken away. The Pats can absolutely move the ball and score with Gronk, Lewis, and White as their primary receiving threats, and the Jags don't have great options matching up with them.
That is great news—I want no part of Cameron Fleming logging more than a few snaps, to say nothing of the significantly larger number of plays they’d be forced to leave Gronk or Allen on the line to block.
Yeah, god knows we need Dwayne Allen out there running routes. Fleming was perfectly fine as a starter down the stretch, I'd give him a little more credit.
Totally agree, when Cam was in there, I didn't notice any extra pressure. He can do the job.
The Patriots under Brady have lost 9 playoff games since 2001. Here's some information about those games:
1-14-06 at Den
- 27-13
- Brady: 55.6%, 2 INT, 74.0 rating
- Pats: 5 turnovers
- Den D: #3 pts, #15 yds
1-21-07 at Ind
- 38-34
- Brady: 61.8%, 1 int, 79.5 rating
- Pats: 1 turnover
- Ind D: #23 pts, #21 yds
2-3-08 vs NYG
- 17-14
- Brady: 60.4%, 0 int, 82.5 rating
- Pats: 1 turnover
- NYG D: #17 pts, #7 yds
1-10-10 vs Bal
- 33-14
- Brady: 54.8%, 3 int, 49.1 rating
- Pats: 4 turnovers
- Bal D: #3 pts, #3 yds
1-16-11 vs NYJ
- 28-21
- Brady: 64.4%, 1 int, 89.0 rating
- Pats: 1 turnover
- NYJ D: #6 pts, #3 yds
2-5-12 vs NYG
- 21-17
- Brady: 65.9%, 1 int, 91.1 rating
- Pats: 1 turnover
- NYG D: #25 pts, #27 yds
1-20-13 vs Bal
- 28-13
- Brady: 53.7%, 2 int, 62.3 rating
- Pats: 3 turnovers
- Bal D: #12 pts, #17 yds
1-19-14 at Den
- 26-16
- Brady: 63.1%, 0 int, 93.9 rating
- Pats: 0 turnovers
- Den D: #22 pts, #19 yds
1-24-16 at Den
- 20-18
- Brady: 48.1%, 2 int, 56.4 rating
- Pats: 2 turnovers
- Den D: #4 pts, #1 yds
The Pats have lost only one playoff game in the BB/TB era when they've scored more than 21 points. One. Normally when they lose playoff games, they struggle to score. In these games, the Pats have committed 18 turnovers, and in 8 of the 9 losses they had at least 1 turnover. They've been in 11 AFCCGs, 6 at home (5-1), 5 on the road (2-3).
When they score more than 21 points they are 21-1.
When they score 21 points or fewer they are 5-8.
Jacksonville, on the road, has allowed the following points this year:
7 at Hou
23 at NYJ
9 at Pit
0 at Ind
7 at Cle
27 at Ari
44 at SF
15 at Ten
42 at Pit
AVG: 16.0
New England, at home, has scored the following points this year:
27 vs KC
36 vs Hou
30 vs Car
23 vs Atl
21 vs LAC
35 vs Mia
37 vs Buf
26 vs NYJ
35 vs Ten
AVG: 30.0
Kind of seems obvious, but if the Pats turn the ball over and struggle to score more than 21 points, they probably will lose. If they get more than 21, they'll almost certainly win.
In some ways, I'd rather they play a team with a weak defense and a great offense, rather than a weak offense and a great defense. But that's what they'll get.
1-14-06 at Den
- 27-13
- Brady: 55.6%, 2 INT, 74.0 rating
- Pats: 5 turnovers
- Den D: #3 pts, #15 yds
1-21-07 at Ind
- 38-34
- Brady: 61.8%, 1 int, 79.5 rating
- Pats: 1 turnover
- Ind D: #23 pts, #21 yds
2-3-08 vs NYG
- 17-14
- Brady: 60.4%, 0 int, 82.5 rating
- Pats: 1 turnover
- NYG D: #17 pts, #7 yds
1-10-10 vs Bal
- 33-14
- Brady: 54.8%, 3 int, 49.1 rating
- Pats: 4 turnovers
- Bal D: #3 pts, #3 yds
1-16-11 vs NYJ
- 28-21
- Brady: 64.4%, 1 int, 89.0 rating
- Pats: 1 turnover
- NYJ D: #6 pts, #3 yds
2-5-12 vs NYG
- 21-17
- Brady: 65.9%, 1 int, 91.1 rating
- Pats: 1 turnover
- NYG D: #25 pts, #27 yds
1-20-13 vs Bal
- 28-13
- Brady: 53.7%, 2 int, 62.3 rating
- Pats: 3 turnovers
- Bal D: #12 pts, #17 yds
1-19-14 at Den
- 26-16
- Brady: 63.1%, 0 int, 93.9 rating
- Pats: 0 turnovers
- Den D: #22 pts, #19 yds
1-24-16 at Den
- 20-18
- Brady: 48.1%, 2 int, 56.4 rating
- Pats: 2 turnovers
- Den D: #4 pts, #1 yds
The Pats have lost only one playoff game in the BB/TB era when they've scored more than 21 points. One. Normally when they lose playoff games, they struggle to score. In these games, the Pats have committed 18 turnovers, and in 8 of the 9 losses they had at least 1 turnover. They've been in 11 AFCCGs, 6 at home (5-1), 5 on the road (2-3).
When they score more than 21 points they are 21-1.
When they score 21 points or fewer they are 5-8.
Jacksonville, on the road, has allowed the following points this year:
7 at Hou
23 at NYJ
9 at Pit
0 at Ind
7 at Cle
27 at Ari
44 at SF
15 at Ten
42 at Pit
AVG: 16.0
New England, at home, has scored the following points this year:
27 vs KC
36 vs Hou
30 vs Car
23 vs Atl
21 vs LAC
35 vs Mia
37 vs Buf
26 vs NYJ
35 vs Ten
AVG: 30.0
Kind of seems obvious, but if the Pats turn the ball over and struggle to score more than 21 points, they probably will lose. If they get more than 21, they'll almost certainly win.
In some ways, I'd rather they play a team with a weak defense and a great offense, rather than a weak offense and a great defense. But that's what they'll get.
Yes--he did all right, but Jacksonville's line is a little better than Tennessee's, and Fleming's had more bad games than good ones. I'd be very concerned about a playoff game in which he's playing the bulk of the snaps at right tackle.
And the issue with potentially needing Allen to block more is not that the offense misses his great hands--it's that it keeps a more valuable receiver or pass-catching RB off the field. It makes the offense a lot less versatile.
I took the family to a joint practice with the Jags. Cooks abused his man and after seeing their issues with Brown maybe this will be the Cooks show.
Jacksonville had the #1 ranked pass defense by DVOA. Here's how they managed to do in terms of points and passing yards against the better pass defense teams they faced this year.
vs Car (#10): 30 points, 293 pass yds
vs NO (#5): 36 points, 436 pass yds
vs Pit (#8): 27 points, 283 pass yds
vs Den (#11): 41 points, 297 pass yds
vs LAC (#9): 21 points, 317 pass yds
vs Buf (#12): 23 points, 244 pass yds
vs Buf (#12): 37 points, 218 pass yds
AVG: 30.7 points, 298.3 pass yds
vs Car (#10): 30 points, 293 pass yds
vs NO (#5): 36 points, 436 pass yds
vs Pit (#8): 27 points, 283 pass yds
vs Den (#11): 41 points, 297 pass yds
vs LAC (#9): 21 points, 317 pass yds
vs Buf (#12): 23 points, 244 pass yds
vs Buf (#12): 37 points, 218 pass yds
AVG: 30.7 points, 298.3 pass yds
Color me very skeptical that the Jags linebackers can stick with White, Lewis and maybe Burkhead (if he plays). Speed is one thing but these guys are all very shifty as well.