There's downside risk to every potential course of action, but it is obvious to me that your suggestion is the riskiest course. One pick at the game's lowest-percentage position versus four. There's still a possibility three of four or all four don't work out, but if you punt on adding supporting talent again you're virtually guaranteeing a bad surrounding cast for the next QB - and for Brady's twilight, which is still likely the best chance to add a championship in the next decade.
"Reasonable confidence" of an "above-average starter" is way too low a bar. You put Matt Ryan on a team that's got that kind of supporting talent and you're going 5-11/6-10. This kind of move only makes sense if you think there's a good chance you've got a Hall of Famer. There's a middle ground scenario I could probably get on board with (like trading 63 to move up from 23 to 16 or something) but this team needs young talent.
I think we’re more or less thinking about this the same way. I might just be saying it poorly.