2018 Draft: Potential Early Round Patriots

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
8,878
Dallas
Not to pick on you, SMU, but I wonder when the last time BB took someone who either the national pundits or any of us here or on ITP liked.
This section of the board is called "Wait. Who???" for a good reason. Many of them actually.
We’re on the same boat. I am not saying I’m going to predict who they draft, that’s a fools errand. But looking at the roster in 2018-2020 you can see when contracts run out and have an idea what positions the Patriots will potentially look at. Then again none of us know the long term plans.

If you want to go down the predicting Belichick’s move is useless avenue that’s fine. You’re right. I think discussing players and strategy is an interesting endeavor though.

Also, think about the draft exercise. We’re making lists of 20 players. I could list 20 people alone they might be interested in UDFA.

End of the day I like doing this kind of stuff even if it is not fruitful in terms of getting predictions right. Pick away, I know I’m going to be wrong. Also, I don’t really have much of an ego so I don’t take that personally.
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
55,298
deep inside Guido territory

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,054
Hingham, MA
Giardi today
23 - Landry, Edge, BC
31 - Vander Esch, LB, Boise State
43 - Gesiki, TE, Penn State
63 - O'Neill, OT, Pitt

Edit: interesting to me that both Kiper and McShay include 1 (or 2) defensive backs while Giardi doesn't
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
8,878
Dallas
Kiper and McShay just mocked up the first two rounds on ESPN Insider.

Kiper:
23 -- Miller, OT, UCLA
31 -- Hughes, CB, Central Florida
43 -- Hubbard, DE/OLB, OSU
63 -- Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State


McShay:
23 -- McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame
31 -- Harrison, S, Alabama
43 -- Baker, LB, OSU
63 -- Everett, CB, Alabama
My two least favorite guys, especially Kiper, who I think rests on his laurels and talks out of both sides of his mouth. What's that Mel, we shouldn't draft Lamar Jackson high because his completion percentage is too low? Wait, didn't you just say about Josh Allen that completion percentage doesn't matter? I get that you can make an argument here about the fine line on what Mel was trying to say, but, to me though he's outclassed and outgunned in 2018. He's exactly who he was trying to rebel against back in the day.

That being said the only crazy picks there to me are Miller at 23 (and I actually like Kolton just not at 23) and Anthony Averett at 63 who I think is more of a later round guy but with upside. I think the others either are good fits at their slot or only a slight reach.

I don't follow the big media guys so it is interesting to me where prospects fall to them because they are listening to NFL sources.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
53,838

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
8,878
Dallas
In rankings of mock drafts, McShay generally ends up leading the pack.

https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2016/5/7/11606510/grading-kiper-mcshay-co-2016-mock-draft-judgment-day

The rate 34 of them (this is from last year) and McShay was #1 over the 5 year period, Kiper was #7. Florio was last.
Interesting. McShay and Kiper are plugged into the NFL - Kiper is sometimes nothing more than a glorified mouthpiece who listens well. There is merit in their game of predicting what will happen though. But I find the what should happen to be more interesting and in my somewhat limited time delve into that.

I like the hybrid types, the Daniel Jeremiah’s of the world, who do their mock drafts with their ears but make their big boards with their eyes.

I think though because of the disproportionate time I spend reading or listening to non-big-Draft-media I get whiplash when I see Anthony Averett or prospects like him (large divide between draft communities) listed as a potential second round pick... although Belichick specializes in those, right? I mean it is why this sub board is named wait who.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,054
Hingham, MA
I have seen Hughes mocked a bunch to the Pats, I don't get it. I don't see them drafting a CB in round 1, and probably not round 2.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
8,878
Dallas
I have seen Hughes mocked a bunch to the Pats, I don't get it. I don't see them drafting a CB in round 1, and probably not round 2.
Did you see the latest one on Pats Pulpit? Kolton fucking Miller at 23 and Mason Rudolph at 31. I think for the sake of my health and well-being I need to stop looking at these. I like these guys too but not at 23 and 31 especially with the other players available and the current roster.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,054
Hingham, MA
Did you see the latest one on Pats Pulpit? Kolton fucking Miller at 23 and Mason Rudolph at 31. I think for the sake of my health and well-being I need to stop looking at these. I like these guys too but not at 23 and 31 especially with the other players available and the current roster.
I generally don't get too up or down on drafts but I would probably vomit with that mock. But ultimately in BB I trust, I guess if he and McD thought Rudolph was the one then I would convince myself it was a great pick, but there's just... no chance IMO.
 

slamminsammya

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
9,152
San Francisco
I have found I am much more at peace with drafting decisions the less I pay attention to mock drafts. Natural human bias is to increase confidence in your opinions with greater information even as the value of new information has diminishing returns. Its easy to lose sight of what a crapshoot the whole thing is the more you focus in on it.
 

pappymojo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 28, 2010
6,667
I have seen Hughes mocked a bunch to the Pats, I don't get it. I don't see them drafting a CB in round 1, and probably not round 2.
Is there something about Hughes in particular you don't like? Or is it the idea of drafting a corner with one of our top picks?

I think 23 is too early for a corner mainly as there are quite a few who project at a similar draft slot (Hughes, Alexander, Oliver) but I wouldn't be upset or very surprised if they drafted a corner before the end of the 2nd. Hughes has value as a kick returner as well.
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
14,012
Mansfield MA
The Patriots seem to really value tackling in their CBs and we were not high on Hughes' at ITP. He was a willing tackler but showed "marginal open field tackling technique" and struggled to shed blocks.

It's fascinating if you look at the DBs the Patriots have drafted high:
2007 #24 - Meriweather (S)
2010 #27 - McCourty (CB, moved to S)
2011 #33 - Ras-I Dowling (big CB who some might thought might move to S and did play a little inside)
2009 #34 - Chung (S)
2003 #36 - Eugene Wilson (CB, immediately moved to S)
2009 #41 - Darius Butler (CB with some slot flexibility, didn't last long in part because he can't tackle)
2012 #48 - Tavon Wilson (S)
2016 #60 - Cyrus Jones (physical CB with slot flexibility)
2008 #62 - Terrence Wheatley - a pure CB but a good tackler
2015 #64 - Richards (S)

All these guys were good tacklers, had slot flexibility, had safety flexibility, or some combination of the three. I don't know that any of the top CBs really fit the Patriots mold. Based on our ITP draft guide, I'd look at Davontae Harris (Illinois State) or Nick Nelson (Wisconsin), who we graded out as very good against the run and both have slot and / or safety flexibility. Nelson just tore his meniscus, which makes him an interesting mid-round option as a guy who could "redshirt" for a year; I don't think the Patriots need a CB to make a 2018 impact.
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
55,298
deep inside Guido territory

#OleMiss DE Breeland Speaks is VISITING with the New England #Patriots today.

We all know the #Patriots love SEC defensive talent. Looks like they will do their due diligence on 6'3 285lb 4.87 forty DE from #OleMiss

3-cone: 7.63
Vertical: 32"
Broad: 110"

He does have a pretty big temper having been kicked out of 2 games his senior year(1 for targeting and 1 for two unsportsmanlike conduct penalties).
 

ehaz

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 30, 2007
4,948

#OleMiss DE Breeland Speaks is VISITING with the New England #Patriots today.

We all know the #Patriots love SEC defensive talent. Looks like they will do their due diligence on 6'3 285lb 4.87 forty DE from #OleMiss

3-cone: 7.63
Vertical: 32"
Broad: 110"

He does have a pretty big temper having been kicked out of 2 games his senior year(1 for targeting and 1 for two unsportsmanlike conduct penalties).
I want him. That’s a great name
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
8,878
Dallas
Justin Reid certainly isn't Jordan Richards. Much more talented.
+1. I think he was JoKeing though.


#OleMiss DE Breeland Speaks is VISITING with the New England #Patriots today.

We all know the #Patriots love SEC defensive talent. Looks like they will do their due diligence on 6'3 285lb 4.87 forty DE from #OleMiss

3-cone: 7.63
Vertical: 32"
Broad: 110"

He does have a pretty big temper having been kicked out of 2 games his senior year(1 for targeting and 1 for two unsportsmanlike conduct penalties).
A Dlineman who can rush the passer with upside who they can probably get in late day 2 or day 3. If they go elsewhere with their top picks I like him and RJ McIntosh as late day 2 day 3 picks.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
8,878
Dallas
Patriots meet with SMU's Courtland Sutton. Did I mention he went to SMU? Could he be another 2nd round SMU bust? He'd join the honorable ranks of... Margus Hunt (I tutored him my senior year, I was an older student though)

He's a prototypical possession X receiver. With Sutton you have to buy into his upside as a receiver if you're going to take him early. You also have to be patient with him as he is not a nuanced route runner who has run a large variety of routes. You might also want to get additional health insurance on your own team's corners because he is going to maul them in practice in the run game. Kidding aside, he's a divisive prospect. I know some who consider him as a late day 2 early day 3 guy and those who think he is a genuine 1st round WR option with plenty in between.

Let's talk about some of the risks with Sutton: Even though he isn't as slow as a Laquon Treadwell (4.64 40) he isn't going to blaze downfield and has average top end speed (still incredible for his size). He played slower to get to top speed than he tested. His change of direction on tape is inconsistent but usually sub-par. Michael Kist explains it much better than I can but I will attempt to paraphrase. It takes him some time to wind down to transition at the end of his stem. Sometimes he can make the transition quickly and when he does he has success creating separation. But usually he doesn't, the transition takes more time/steps than it should and we have a contested catch situation. Luckily he's pretty good at those. The thing is though I think he is a guy who has improved from year to year even during his senior year if the stats didn't show it. He has the ability in him - so will it ever get to a point where it is consistently at his best? If the answer gets close to yes then he is going to be fine creating separation at the NFL level.

Will it get there? Well, he did post a ridiculous 6.57 3-cone. That combined with him flashing that potential, and his college development makes me think it's an OK bet. It might not hit but the reasoning is sound.

Better corners shut him down: his production against top competition or even top corners on bad teams was anemic. That worries me. He struggled getting separation or when he did his QB didn't do him any favors. It wasn't quite as bad as the raw stats would tell you but it wasn't pretty.

The biggest concern is that Sutton struggles to consistently get separation. It's not that he can't or that he doesn't (he's not as bad as Treadwell was) but it is inconsistent. I think you can see from some of the above why. But with improved hand usage, making smoother transitions, and more nuanced route running is going to help there. If you draft him you are betting on continued development.

To me he is a high risk high reward guy but should have a floor with his size and contested catch ability to be a red zone or 3rd down target. He also is a mauler in the run game. He moves corners completely out of the picture. His ceiling is a top tier possession receiver. I don't think that warrants first round value but I'd be comfortable taking the risk in the 2nd round. Personally I'd like him more in the 60-70 range but if the Patriots targeted him at 43 I'd be fine with that. Probably relevant to say I do not think the Patriots have some magical inherent problem developing receivers and even if Sutton didn't work out for them we knew going in he had his risks.
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
14,012
Mansfield MA
Patriots meet with SMU's Courtland Sutton. Did I mention he went to SMU? Could he be another 2nd round SMU bust? He'd join the honorable ranks of... Margus Hunt (I tutored him my senior year, I was an older student though)
Hunt was older, too, IIRC.

To me he is a high risk high reward guy but should have a floor with his size and contested catch ability to be a red zone or 3rd down target. He also is a mauler in the run game. He moves corners completely out of the picture. His ceiling is a top tier possession receiver. I don't think that warrants first round value but I'd be comfortable taking the risk in the 2nd round. Personally I'd like him more in the 60-70 range but if the Patriots targeted him at 43 I'd be fine with that. Probably relevant to say I do not think the Patriots have some magical inherent problem developing receivers and even if Sutton didn't work out for them we knew going in he had his risks.
I don't think the Patriots have a magical inherent problem developing receivers, but I do think part of their problem is they tend to draft guys like Sutton - high-risk, high-reward guys with fundamental issues. The early-round picks have all tended to be of this mold, conventional X receivers with warts: Dobson, Bethel Johnson, Brandon Tate, Taylor Price. The only exceptions really are Chad Jackson (who busted anyway) and Deion Branch (by far their best early WR pick). Interestingly, two of their best WR draft picks were seventh rounders - Edelman and Givens.

It would fit the pattern to take Sutton; I also think they might feel the uncertainty at WR in the mediumish term and nab a safer guy like Ridley or Kirk or Hamilton. It could also be a year where they double-dip; take a home-run-swing X type in the second or third and take a higher-floor guy in the later rounds.

EDIT: Looking at Chad Jackson again, he could easily be in the first bucket. I saw him as more of a Z type based on his college production but he ran a sub-4.4 and was 6'0"; they could have easily seen him as a Cooks type.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
8,878
Dallas
Hunt was older, too, IIRC.


I don't think the Patriots have a magical inherent problem developing receivers, but I do think part of their problem is they tend to draft guys like Sutton - high-risk, high-reward guys with fundamental issues. The early-round picks have all tended to be of this mold, conventional X receivers with warts: Dobson, Bethel Johnson, Brandon Tate, Taylor Price. The only exceptions really are Chad Jackson (who busted anyway) and Deion Branch (by far their best early WR pick). Interestingly, two of their best WR draft picks were seventh rounders - Edelman and Givens.

It would fit the pattern to take Sutton; I also think they might feel the uncertainty at WR in the mediumish term and nab a safer guy like Ridley or Kirk or Hamilton. It could also be a year where they double-dip; take a home-run-swing X type in the second or third and take a higher-floor guy in the later rounds.

EDIT: Looking at Chad Jackson again, he could easily be in the first bucket. I saw him as more of a Z type based on his college production but he ran a sub-4.4 and was 6'0"; they could have easily seen him as a Cooks type.

I think you, as usual, hit the nail on the head. I tweeted this a bit back to Jon Ledyard, and it's a bit hyperbolic, "Here's a hot take: Trey Quinn has more yards and receptions than Courtland Sutton in the NFL". It's a bit much, but the spirit of it acknowledges Sutton's risk and Quinn's possible high floor. I think Sutton is of reasonable/defensible risk and value somewhere in the 2nd/3rd round but he's not a guy I would be advocating for. He's sadly not a binkie for me.

Re Hunt: Oh yeah, he was older too - I think he turned 26 or so the first year he played pro. Really interesting guy. I think he spoke something like 5-7 languages fluently. Was very smart in many ways you wouldn't expect like being incredibly tech savvy. He didn't need the help tutoring he just needed someone to carry him through group projects. He walked on the team. He was a track star who came to study abroad (and do track here too). Hammer/discus throw was his event IIRC.
 
Last edited:

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,678
I think you, as usual, hit the nail on the head. I tweeted this a bit back to Jon Ledyard, and it's a bit hyperbolic, "Here's a hot take: Trey Quinn has more yards and receptions than Courtland Sutton in the NFL". It's a bit much, but the spirit of it acknowledges Sutton's risk and Quinn's possible high floor. I think Sutton is of reasonable/defensible risk and value somewhere in the 2nd/3rd round but he's not a guy I would be advocating for. He's sadly not a binkie for me.
I think I agree with you on Quinn. I don’t like Sutton at all (guys that can’t get separation against college competition is a disqualifier for me), and I think that Quinn, barring injury, has a ten year career as a slot receiver in the NFL.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
8,878
Dallas
Plugging something today: Inside the Pylon rebooted the Breaking the Plane and Pylon U podcasts a month or so ago. Right now they do a joint podcast but sometime after the draft they will split again. It's always a good listen. But today they have a podcast with a guy I think is always worth a listen to (years ago we had him on SoSH for an interview), Matt Waldman.

For me, I have spent most of my time scouting the defense this year so hearing Matt's take on some of the receivers is refreshing.

Matt Waldman has made a career out of evaluating offensive skilled positions and you can buy his 2018 Rookie Scouting Portfolio here.

Just another fun resource for us. Check out Matt on the podcast.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
8,878
Dallas
What do our experts thing about Mike White, W Kentucky QB?
Masco (Mark Schofield) just wrote up a piece on pro football weekly the mid to low tier QB prospects and where they fit in + a little bit about theirs games/strengths/weaknesses.

Here is what Masco said about Mike White, and he has his ideal team fit as the Chargers:

Western Kentucky’s Mike White, like many other quarterbacks in this group, has been an interesting evaluation. He has some big supporters, such as Eric Galko from Optimum Scouting, who has been touting the Hilltopper QB all season long. He has some nice tools to work with as a passer and you can see a path for him to NFL success, but trying to identify the ideal scheme fit for him has been a vexing proposition this draft season.

White has the arm and aggression to function in a vertical-based system, but he will need to fix some mechanical inconsistencies in his lower body if he is to truly flourish in a downfield offense. There were times on his film where he would struggle to set/reset, and it would impact his accuracy on deeper throws. Coming into this season, his processing speed was a question mark for me so I did wonder about a fit in a West Coast offense, but then I watched his final regular season game against Middle Tennessee State, who ran a 3-3-5 defense that showed him multiple, complex looks up front. White was stellar in that game, making plays like this...
ITP has him at 144 and they think he has upside as a starter and is scheme diverse. ITP likes his play speed, and accuracy in the short and intermediate ranges. Those sound like good traits for a Patriots QB for someone they could take and who might make a good backup and then who knows. All the usual caveats apply with QBs.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,054
Hingham, MA
Masco (Mark Schofield) just wrote up a piece on pro football weekly the mid to low tier QB prospects and where they fit in + a little bit about theirs games/strengths/weaknesses.

Here is what Masco said about Mike White, and he has his ideal team fit as the Chargers:



ITP has him at 144 and they think he has upside as a starter and is scheme diverse. ITP likes his play speed, and accuracy in the short and intermediate ranges. Those sound like good traits for a Patriots QB for someone they could take and who might make a good backup and then who knows. All the usual caveats apply with QBs.
Thanks. I've mentioned it elsewhere but between 2018 and 2020 I think the Pats should draft multiple QBs: one as the heir, and one as the next backup, with the idea that drafting two gives them more shots at finding the heir (not dissimilar to Washington drafting RG3 and Cousins)
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
8,878
Dallas
Thanks. I've mentioned it elsewhere but between 2018 and 2020 I think the Pats should draft multiple QBs: one as the heir, and one as the next backup, with the idea that drafting two gives them more shots at finding the heir (not dissimilar to Washington drafting RG3 and Cousins)
I completely agree! I would be fine getting a Logan Woodside/Mike White day 3 this year if they wanted to upgrade other areas like the front 7 with the higher end picks. On the other hand though I am riding front seat on the Lamar Jackson bandwagon and this year is, IMO, a very good year for QBs. I think he fits very well with the Patriots schematically and he would have a chance to sit and develop.

I have no idea which direction they go in. I'm excited though. 4/11... hang in there, right? Just two weeks and a day to go :). It's like Christmas in April. I am still trying to work a connection to actually get into the draft this year. I'd love to be there in person and this year it is in Dallas so I would have a chance to go.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,054
Hingham, MA
I completely agree! I would be fine getting a Logan Woodside/Mike White day 3 this year if they wanted to upgrade other areas like the front 7 with the higher end picks. On the other hand though I am riding front seat on the Lamar Jackson bandwagon and this year is, IMO, a very good year for QBs. I think he fits very well with the Patriots schematically and he would have a chance to sit and develop.

I have no idea which direction they go in. I'm excited though. 4/11... hang in there, right? Just two weeks and a day to go :). It's like Christmas in April. I am still trying to work a connection to actually get into the draft this year. I'd love to be there in person and this year it is in Dallas so I would have a chance to go.
This is the most I have paid attention and been excited for a draft in a long time. 4/26-27 are going to be so much fun. I'm on board with a day 3 project, although I love the idea of a day 2 semi-project like Jackson or Lauletta
 

pappymojo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 28, 2010
6,667
I believe after watching Tom Brady shred the Eagles defense in the Super Bowl, he said, 'I am happy I have a player like that.'
 

ZMart100

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 15, 2008
3,188
I'm still well behind where I normally am, and have just started working through WR. I don't like Sutton in round 2. He has trouble changing direction crisply, his routes are just okay. He's also okay as a blocker, not incredibly willing or nasty, but he can get the job done. He looks like good depth, but I'm having trouble seeing a huge upside. I'd give him a 4th round grade.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
8,878
Dallas
Sam gets an awful grade from Scouts Inc. Is he even a draftable player?
He's a guy who Kyle Crabbs discussed quite a bit. He injured his foot his junior year. Kyle thinks he was a lot more explosive and dynamic in 2015 and that if had he not injured his foot and his development was not impacted we'd be talking about him a lot higher up. That's a big if. I only watched his limited 2017 tape. I like his upside and depth as a day 3 pick.

According to Tony Pauline, Dallas Goedert has either visited or met with the Patriots.

http://draftanalyst.com/tight-end-boards-it’s-anyone’s-guess
He's my #1 TE. I would love his fit here too. And with Gronk, Hollister, and Allen he can develop too! Would instantly be a devastating red zone option with Gronk. Good night that would be a sick TE combo.