Patriots meet with
SMU's Courtland Sutton. Did I mention he went to SMU? Could he be another 2nd round SMU bust? He'd join the honorable ranks of... Margus Hunt (I tutored him my senior year, I was an older student though)
He's a prototypical possession X receiver. With Sutton you have to buy into his upside as a receiver if you're going to take him early. You also have to be patient with him as he is not a nuanced route runner who has run a large variety of routes. You might also want to get additional health insurance on your own team's corners because he is going to maul them in practice in the run game. Kidding aside, he's a divisive prospect. I know some who consider him as a late day 2 early day 3 guy and those who think he is a genuine 1st round WR option with plenty in between.
Let's talk about some of the risks with Sutton: Even though he isn't as slow as a Laquon Treadwell (4.64 40) he isn't going to blaze downfield and has average top end speed (still incredible for his size). He played slower to get to top speed than he tested. His change of direction on tape is inconsistent but usually sub-par.
Michael Kist explains it much better than I can but I will attempt to paraphrase. It takes him some time to wind down to transition at the end of his stem. Sometimes he can make the transition quickly and when he does he has success creating separation. But usually he doesn't, the transition takes more time/steps than it should and we have a contested catch situation. Luckily he's pretty good at those. The thing is though I think he is a guy who has improved from year to year even during his senior year if the stats didn't show it. He has the ability in him - so will it ever get to a point where it is consistently at his best? If the answer gets close to yes then he is going to be fine creating separation at the NFL level.
Will it get there? Well, he did post a ridiculous 6.57 3-cone. That combined with him flashing that potential, and his college development makes me think it's an OK bet. It might not hit but the reasoning is sound.
Better corners shut him down: his production against top competition or even top corners on bad teams was anemic. That worries me. He struggled getting separation or when he did his QB didn't do him any favors. It wasn't quite as bad as the raw stats would tell you but it wasn't pretty.
The biggest concern is that Sutton struggles to consistently get separation. It's not that he can't or that he doesn't (he's not as bad as Treadwell was) but it is inconsistent. I think you can see from some of the above why. But with improved hand usage, making smoother transitions, and more nuanced route running is going to help there. If you draft him you are betting on continued development.
To me he is a high risk high reward guy but should have a floor with his size and contested catch ability to be a red zone or 3rd down target. He also is a mauler in the run game. He moves corners completely out of the picture. His ceiling is a top tier possession receiver. I don't think that warrants first round value but I'd be comfortable taking the risk in the 2nd round. Personally I'd like him more in the 60-70 range but if the Patriots targeted him at 43 I'd be fine with that. Probably relevant to say I do not think the Patriots have some magical inherent problem developing receivers and even if Sutton didn't work out for them we knew going in he had his risks.
. It's like Christmas in April. I am still trying to work a connection to actually get into the draft this year. I'd love to be there in person and this year it is in Dallas so I would have a chance to go.
