2018 Draft: Potential Early Round Patriots

[Super Nomario]

He's my #1 TE. I would love his fit here too. And with Gronk, Hollister, and Allen he can develop too! Would instantly be a devastating red zone option with Gronk. Good night that would be a sick TE combo.

I have not really done any film this year, but I saw some highlights on YouTube and Goedert's hands remind me of Gronk. There are not a lot higher compliments - Gronk probably has the best hands I've ever seen. Given how the Patriots value TE, I would think he'd be in play at 31 or 43. The issue is he played against weak competition and he didn't do any testing this offseason. I would feel a lot more comfortable if I knew he ran a 4.7 as opposed to a 4.9.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Looking at how the Pats have interviewed vs drafted the past couple of years and longer and it seems like at least for the higher round picks they often don't interview the guys they end up drafting. They have largely ignored the three defensive tackles near the top: Bryan, Payne, Hurst. That's a short/medium/long term area they could invest in. I actually like all 3 guys and they each come with their warts and ? marks. I'd include Vita Vea in that mix but from everything I have heard there is no way he is available at 23. I also think his pass rush floor is lower but his defense against the run gives him the highest floor of the tackles. It's probably too much draft capital in one position but a Vea combination with any of the other 3 tackles I mentioned would give you a potentially devastating combo for your defense.
Anyone else see some omissions that might point you in a direction for where they might be looking?

 

[RedOctober3829]

Tony Pauline says WR DJ Moore has visited the Patriots. A possible late 1st round pick.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Alabama S Ronnie Harrison (No. 38 prospect on @MoveTheSticks' Top 50) had private meetings/workouts with PIT, NYG, DET, TEN, JAX, MIN, CIN, CAR, SEA, HOU, NE, and PHI. Versatile player who should go Round 2.

 

[E5 Yaz]

second-round safety!

 

[SMU_Sox]

second-round safety!

We can’t draft an actual projected second round safety in the second round though. In all seriousness as long as we aren’t using him as a single high guy he’d be a great box slot type. I’d rather see him than Jordan Richards.

 

[Super Nomario]

Walter Football tracks prospect meetings:

The Combine and Pro Day meetings don't mean a lot to me, but here are the private workouts they noted:
*CB Duke Dawson, Florida
*DE/3-4DE Breeland Speaks, Ole Miss
*DE/3-4DE Duke Ejiofor^, Wake Forest
*DE/3-4OLB Josh Sweat, Florida State
*DE/3-4OLB/OLB Harold Landry^, Boston College
*DE/DT/3-4DE Rasheem Green^, USC
*DT P.J. Hall^, Sam Houston State
*ILB Christian Sam, Arizona State
*ILB Rashaan Evans, Alabama
*OT Connor Williams, Texas
*OT Kolton Miller^, UCLA
*OT Will Richardson, N.C. State
*QB Lamar Jackson, Louisville
*RB Derrius Guice, LSU
*RB Kalen Ballage, Arizona State
*RB Kerryon Johnson, Auburn
*RB Ronald Jones II, USC
*S Damon Webb, Ohio State
*S Justin Reid^, Stanford
*S Ronnie Harrison^, Alabama
*WR Braxton Berrios, Miami
*WR Calvin Ridley, Alabama
*WR Christian Kirk, Texas A&M
*WR D.J. Moore, Maryland

That's 24 (teams get 30) so it's incomplete, and I don't know that's 100% reliable. That's probably fewer CBs, QBs, and ILBs than we might expect (and no TEs) and more RBs.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Walter Football tracks prospect meetings:

The Combine and Pro Day meetings don't mean a lot to me, but here are the private workouts they noted:
*CB Duke Dawson, Florida
*DE/3-4DE Breeland Speaks, Ole Miss
*DE/3-4DE Duke Ejiofor^, Wake Forest
*DE/3-4OLB Josh Sweat, Florida State
*DE/3-4OLB/OLB Harold Landry^, Boston College
*DE/DT/3-4DE Rasheem Green^, USC
*DT P.J. Hall^, Sam Houston State
*ILB Christian Sam, Arizona State
*ILB Rashaan Evans, Alabama
*OT Connor Williams, Texas
*OT Kolton Miller^, UCLA
*OT Will Richardson, N.C. State
*QB Lamar Jackson, Louisville
*RB Derrius Guice, LSU
*RB Kalen Ballage, Arizona State
*RB Kerryon Johnson, Auburn
*RB Ronald Jones II, USC
*S Damon Webb, Ohio State
*S Justin Reid^, Stanford
*S Ronnie Harrison^, Alabama
*WR Braxton Berrios, Miami
*WR Calvin Ridley, Alabama
*WR Christian Kirk, Texas A&M
*WR D.J. Moore, Maryland

That's 24 (teams get 30) so it's incomplete, and I don't know that's 100% reliable. That's probably fewer CBs, QBs, and ILBs than we might expect (and no TEs) and more RBs.

Mike Loyko tracked it too.

 

[Super Nomario]

Mike Loyko tracked it too.

That's interesting that they met with Moore, Ridley, and (rumored) Sutton - all three of the WR getting first-round buzz. Certainly suggests they might use a high pick - maybe even 23 - to replace Cooks. And none of these guys have injuries that I'm aware of where they'd need to check boxes there.

Richardson is interesting, too, because he played RT in college. Highlights how an OT pick could be as much about finding an heir for Cannon as replacing Solder.

Berrios, Jones, and Ejiofor all had injury issues that prevented them from doing stuff at the Combine, so those might have been medical followups.

 

[SMU_Sox]

I’ll flesh this out in a bit but I thought traditionally they often picked a guy high they did not interview or meet with. You could almost tell where they might go by omission. I was looking at this earlier this month - pats pulpit has a list of all the interviews and meetings. Have to head to a meeting but will be back later.

 

[tims4wins]

That's interesting that they met with Moore, Ridley, and (rumored) Sutton - all three of the WR getting first-round buzz. Certainly suggests they might use a high pick - maybe even 23 - to replace Cooks. And none of these guys have injuries that I'm aware of where they'd need to check boxes there.

Richardson is interesting, too, because he played RT in college. Highlights how an OT pick could be as much about finding an heir for Cannon as replacing Solder.

Berrios, Jones, and Ejiofor all had injury issues that prevented them from doing stuff at the Combine, so those might have been medical followups.

Am I missing something re: Cannon? He signed a 5 year contract before 2017. He is signed through 2021 at a reasonable cap figure (<$8M each year). Why would they need to replace him?

 

[SMU_Sox]

So Pats Pulpit of all places had an article on this and it is based on Mike Tanier's work: The pre-draft 30 meetings are not, as a rule of thumb, very helpful with predicting the player the team will take (not sure if it foreshadows position). Patriots, at that time (2014), had not drafted a guy they had met with in over two years. 6.7% of those drafted went to a team they met with in 2013 and 7.6% in 2014.

Statistically speaking, the average team would be expected to draft two of their 30 visits.

In 2014, the Falcons and Steelers drafted four players they had in for a visit, while the Texansselected three players from visits. 11 first round picks had recorded Pre-Draft visits, while every other round had roughly five players with Pre-Draft connections.

The Patriots differ from the average team, though, and have drafted zero of the players they've had in for an Official Visit over the past two seasons. While the team did bring defensive tackle Cory "Porkchop" Grissom into camp in 2013, and did the same for running back Stephen Houston in 2014, New England didn't use a draft pick on either player.

Last year, the Patriots brought in five quarterbacks not named Jimmy Garoppolo. They only brought in two offensive linemen. New England is not a team that will reveal obvious interest in a player in the Pre-Draft process.

So to me when I see the clear need to upgrade the front seven and the lack of interviews with defensive tackles (I find that glaring) I think they interviewed a lot of potential first round picks they won't be making. I might be reading way much into those tea leaves but it's Friday before the draft and it is a really slow day at work.

Also, while I thought they met with the big name QBs, none of those were official. Again, lots of smoke and mirrors here and we will know in less than a week.

 

[Super Nomario]

So Pats Pulpit of all places had an article on this and it is based on Mike Tanier's work: The pre-draft 30 meetings are not, as a rule of thumb, very helpful with predicting the player the team will take (not sure if it foreshadows position). Patriots, at that time (2014), had not drafted a guy they had met with in over two years. 6.7% of those drafted went to a team they met with in 2013 and 7.6% in 2014.



So to me when I see the clear need to upgrade the front seven and the lack of interviews with defensive tackles (I find that glaring) I think they interviewed a lot of potential first round picks they won't be making. I might be reading way much into those tea leaves but it's Friday before the draft and it is a really slow day at work.

Also, while I thought they met with the big name QBs, none of those were official. Again, lots of smoke and mirrors here and we will know in less than a week.

I'm wondering if it indicates more of an interest in a position than the individual players (like with that Jimmy G example). So maybe they brought in Ridley, Sutton, Kirk, and Moore - which means they'll draft Anthony Miller.

 

[SMU_Sox]

I'm wondering if it indicates more of an interest in a position than the individual players (like with that Jimmy G example). So maybe they brought in Ridley, Sutton, Kirk, and Moore - which means they'll draft Anthony Miller.

I was going to look into this but can't get access to a reliable list of official visits. Draftace has the current year but can't find the archives for this data. If anyone knows where to get that back data it would be great.

Historically they interact with a lot of the prospects they take. Dominique Easley, for example had a private visit with the Patriots but it was not official. Walter football has some good back data there. Walter does not have the same specificity that draftace did. Perhaps though that doesn't matter? I think I want to look at this again with Walter's data. Tanier's article and the work Draft Ace did is great but it seems like in retrospect like they might have conducted the study too rigidly and narrowly.

 

[Super Nomario]

Am I missing something re: Cannon? He signed a 5 year contract before 2017. He is signed through 2021 at a reasonable cap figure (<$8M each year). Why would they need to replace him?

He turns 30 in a couple weeks, he ended last year on IR, and he's cuttable after this season. You're right his contract is very reasonable if he's healthy and performing like he did in 2016, but he's at an age where we can't take that for granted anymore.

 

[tims4wins]

He turns 30 in a couple weeks, he ended last year on IR, and he's cuttable after this season. You're right his contract is very reasonable if he's healthy and performing like he did in 2016, but he's at an age where we can't take that for granted anymore.

I get that, but RT seems so far down the list of needs, even considering that. They have Waddle and Croston on the roster. There are like 10 positions that need upgrading and/or future replacement more than RT

 

[Super Nomario]

I get that, but RT seems so far down the list of needs, even considering that. They have Waddle and Croston on the roster. There are like 10 positions that need upgrading and/or future replacement more than RT

I might agree looking at RT specifically. Looking at OT as a whole, it's maybe the least certain position on the roster. Cannon's good but coming off injury. Waddle's a stopgap (he looked good last year but in only 28% of snaps and his contract tells you how he's thought of around the league). Garcia's a complete wildcard. Croston's a UDFA who barely played last year and was a G when he did. They have Matt Tobin now, too, I guess? And Luke Bowanko? I'd rather they get more of a LT type but OT is arguably the weakest position group on the team.

 

[tims4wins]

I might agree looking at RT specifically. Looking at OT as a whole, it's maybe the least certain position on the roster. Cannon's good but coming off injury. Waddle's a stopgap (he looked good last year but in only 28% of snaps and his contract tells you how he's thought of around the league). Garcia's a complete wildcard. Croston's a UDFA who barely played last year and was a G when he did. They have Matt Tobin now, too, I guess? And Luke Bowanko? I'd rather they get more of a LT type but OT is arguably the weakest position group on the team.

Can't disagree with any of that. I think we are talking more semantics here though. If they draft a OT early I can't imagine it is so they can cut Cannon next year, but crazier things have happened I suppose

 

[Super Nomario]

One of the most interesting stories is Nathan Shepherd from Fort Hays State - he was a 205-pound linebacker at Simon Fraser University in Canada, then had to drop out for financial reasons and worked odd jobs for two years. He continued working out and got on the radar of a coach at Fort Hays State, walked on, earned a scholarship, and wound up being MIAA Defensive Player of the Year. Senior Bowl Director Phil Savage was gushing about his work ethic and coachability on a conference call earlier today: "What really jumped out to me is when he got to Mobile he was eminently coachable. He seemed to absorb everything he was being coached up on. ... Huge upside with Nathan b/c of his work ethic and approach."

He's older because of his background (I think 24), but he has unusual upside for an older player because of his work ethic and because he hasn't been exposed to big program coaching. He's huge - 6'4" 315 - and he had a terrific Combine, basically above-average in everything: https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/nathan-shepherd

He seems like a nice fit with the build to play a few different positions along the line and the explosion to provide some interior pass rush. His age and small school background work against him but work for the Patriots, because they might be able to get a day-one athlete on day two.

More: http://3downnation.com/2018/03/05/canadian-nathan-shepherd-rockets-draft-boards-strong-performance-nfl-combine/

 

[SMU_Sox]

So I am in the weeds gathering and assembling the data to actually look at answering the draft visits question and I came to an interesting point. With Scar as the offensive line coach the Patriots did not officially (Walter's definition of that so from 55-80 players per year) meet with any of their offensive line prospects until Antonio Garcia. When DeGuglielmo was coach they officially visited both Tre' Jackson and Shaq Mason but the visits in 2014 where Donte himself met with Stork and Fleming do not count. Under DeGuglielmo they met with 4/5 offensive line prospects they drafted. Last year the Patriots didn't just have a private workout for Antonio Garcia, the only offensive lineman they have interviewed with Scar as coach, but they traded up for him. Under Scar it is 1/4. You can't really draw any firm conclusions from this little blip but from the outside looking in it the simple narrative that they did things differently under DeGuglielmo combined with Scar doing private evals seems to fit.

 

[SMU_Sox]

So, I think I am going to formally write this up, but here are a few highlights of what i have found so far.

Here is what I did. I got a list of all the prospects the Patriots visited since 2013 from Walter Football but also including Bryan Stork and Cameron Fleming because Scar worked them out. I listed their positions. I figured out where each guy was drafted or if they were a UDFA. I used the draft value chart to assign value to each pick. I did the same thing for each player the Patriots drafted.

There is a statistically significant correlation, albeit somewhat small, between the % of the total value of the visited prospects per position and the % of actual draft capital spent on the position. There is also a statistically significant correlation, almost the same number to no surprise, between the % of the total value of the visited prospects per position and the % of draft picks spent on the position.

Quick note: if a prospect was a legitimate prospect at multiple positions I counted them separately at each position. That's not going to have much of an impact.

The Patriots, since 2013 drafted 39 total positions and 38 players (Shaq Mason counted at C too).
Of those 39 positions they visited 13 of them for 33.3%.
However, of picks from Rounds 1-4 they drafted 24 positions and visited 13 of them for 54.2%

I have not compiled the visits in Excel yet for 2018 or what these findings might mean but I think SuperNomario is onto something and my original theory that they are going DT early has a lot less steam behind it.

 

[SMU_Sox]

I think I am getting somewhere but I have an idea that could help make it better. Sometimes the Patriots have connections with guys that don't get reported. Belichick knows the college coach, for example. I'd like help on that data. Which college programs have been connected to Belichick since 2013-today?

Typo, the coefficient is not based on the value of prospects visited, it is the x axis, or the % of total draft visit capital.


This is what I have so far. I also am finishing up my 2018 visits guide but will probably update it once I figure out the list of programs Belichick is linked to in 2018.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Based on the above this is the expected outcome from the visits captured via Walter Football and Pats Pulpit which is slightly more updated:



Given our picks I expect 2-4 of these positions to be selected in the first 3 rounds: Edge, WR, RB, QB, LB, OT. They have high end options at each of those positions and I think they are prepared to draft guys no matter how the board shakes out. This year is harder than in the past for figuring out how things will play out.

 

[Super Nomario]

I think I am getting somewhere but I have an idea that could help make it better. Sometimes the Patriots have connections with guys that don't get reported. Belichick knows the college coach, for example. I'd like help on that data. Which college programs have been connected to Belichick since 2013-today?

This is a good point. I always think it's interesting, too, when Belichick chooses to meet with a guy where he does know the college coach intimately, such as Ronnie Harrison and Calvin Ridley this year.

Known Belichick connections (not complete):

• Alabama (Saban)
• Ohio State (Meyer and Schiano)
• Iowa (both Ferentzes)
• Notre Dame (Brian Kelly)
• Navy (we can assume)
• Arkansas (Bielema would have recruited / worked with these guys)
• He's been complimentary of Boston College coach Steve Addazio and I would imagine given the proximity there's been some communication
• Dante and FSU OL coach Rick Trickett are buddies

Note also that teams can do local visits of players from high school / colleges in the area without using an official visit. So they could have met with Maurice Hurst, for instance (who went to Xaverian) without it counting against their 30 private visits. Isaac Yiadom (BC CB) and Ervin Phillips (Syracuse WR) are also in those boat. I imagine those visits might be easier to keep under wraps.

 

[tims4wins]

And the thing about connections is he can ask those guys about opposing players from the same conference too. Obviously you don’t get the same type of info in terms of character work ethic etc but there is probably some value there too

 

[SMU_Sox]

This is a good point. I always think it's interesting, too, when Belichick chooses to meet with a guy where he does know the college coach intimately, such as Ronnie Harrison and Calvin Ridley this year.

Known Belichick connections (not complete):

• Alabama (Saban)
• Ohio State (Meyer and Schiano)
• Iowa (both Ferentzes)
• Notre Dame (Brian Kelly)
• Navy (we can assume)
• Arkansas (Bielema would have recruited / worked with these guys)
• He's been complimentary of Boston College coach Steve Addazio and I would imagine given the proximity there's been some communication
• Dante and FSU OL coach Rick Trickett are buddies

Note also that teams can do local visits of players from high school / colleges in the area without using an official visit. So they could have met with Maurice Hurst, for instance (who went to Xaverian) without it counting against their 30 private visits. Isaac Yiadom (BC CB) and Ervin Phillips (Syracuse WR) are also in those boat. I imagine those visits might be easier to keep under wraps.

Nice catch on Hurst. Also, thought of another one that applied some of those years was Schiano and Rutgers.

You start peeling back the onion and if we include connections and/or possible connections to guys like Hurst and this is suddenly looking more predictable (still talking about predicting 3 guys out of 100 plus leads - but positional direction is solid). We are already at 1/3 of drafted guys having visits. I am not counting Joe Cardona or special teams guys - side note. Still, let me go back through the players drafted and see which connections were there.

Thanks, SuperNomario. Going to play with this some more. The next part is probably going to take a bit but will update the players and college connections next and post that quickly.

 

[SMU_Sox]

So updating for college connections, local/highschools, and/or other special ones of the 24 selections the Patriots have made in rounds 1-4 19 were connected/visited by them, or 79.2%. That leaves 6, 3 in the 2nd and 2 in the 3rd, one of whom I am not sure will soon count.

2nd Round Exceptions:
Aaron Dobson. Not local, not connected, no visit, and poor 3-cone. You know what he had? a 4.37 40. Patriots have a weird history with receivers but tend to like super athletic guys. SuperNomario has written about this previously.
Who is this years Aaron Dobson? A second round receiver who is super athletic at least in one area? Someone who has not been interviewed at a position where a lot of guys have been interviewed? Anthony Miller. You can see it on his tape but he posted a 6.65 3-cone and aside from his 4.5 40 and shuttle he is elite in every other metric. It would seem that he is very much in play, and if the past is correct, the Pats are actually high(est) on him. You mentioned that up thread as a possibility, NoMario... hmm, maybe you can read Bill's mind... kidding kidding. He needs a lot of cleaning up but his upside is immense. Sounds familiar. EQ St. Brown is another guy they have a connection with who is elite athletically. He might be a second rounder on some boards.

Jaimie Collins: Amazing Athlete. Bill loves athletic bigger linebackers who can do everything. So who is this years Collins? Well, I am sure they are interested in Tremaine Edmunds who can also play edge and is only 19. I think he might be the number one player on their big board. Georgia's Roquan Smith and Lorenzo Carter are up there too. Leighton Vander Esch who could also profile as an edge but is very raw there. They interviewed Carter but Walter is not counting LVE's visit as of yet (Pats Pulpit is) so I am noting that. Interviewed Hubbard. I think the Pats might not look to trade up for a QB but if they see a guy falling... wouldn't be shocked if they traded up for LB who can play multiple positions including either edge or with pass rush ability. But definitely should be by default very high on Edmunds. They also did not meet with Malik Jefferson which worries me as I do not like him (processing is poor I think) but he is another elite athlete at the position and, in theory, brings you some positional flexibility.

Jordan Richards: Bigger safety/sub-package-guy with an elite 3-cone. Thinking back to the Super Bowl this one irrationally makes me so mad. Hard to peg one but maybe hard hitter and athletic (processing issues though) safety Dane Cruikshank fits that mold?

The Third Down Selection Exceptions:
Vincent Valentine (Massive DT great against the run with some short area athleticism rare for his size but still not a likely 3 down prospect, Joe Thuney (Bill saw him at his NC State Pro Day though if that counts - and apparently is building a relationship with that program as he was down there again personally for the pro day and scouted).

Edit: Geneo Grissom removed.

 

[Super Nomario]

Nice catch on Hurst. Also, thought of another one that applied some of those years was Schiano and Rutgers.

Oh, right, I wasn't thinking historical. That would also get you Saban's other stops (LSU, Michigan State), Meyer's other stops (Florida; not sure if they were buddies when Urban was at Utah), Pat Hill at Fresno State, Bill O'Brien at Penn State, Charlie Weis at Notre Dame, Chip Kelly at UNH and Oregon (and now UCLA). Josh McDaniels' brother was at Minnesota for a while; I remember in one of the Holley books that was a connection that led them to (unfortunately) draft Laurence Maroney. Ben McD is now at Michigan, it appears, and he was at Rutgers a few years ago post-Schiano.

This article (which is wonderful) also mentions Bob Stoops, and says his brother Mike recommended Gronk to Belichick when he was at Arizona. Tom Herman's quoted, too, and David Shaw.

Then you can also get into trees of trees - like I don't know any direct connection between Belichick and Dabo Swinney, but Dabo worked with Saban so I'm sure he'd take the call if Belichick phoned him up. For that matter, who isn't taking a call from Bill Belichick?

 

[Super Nomario]

Jaimie Collins: Amazing Athlete. Bill loves athletic bigger linebackers who can do everything. So who is this years Collins? Well, I am sure they are interested in Tremaine Edmunds who can also play edge and is only 19. I think he might be the number one player on their big board. Georgia's Roquan Smith and Lorenzo Carter are up there too. Leighton Vander Esch who could also profile as an edge but is very raw there. They interviewed Carter but Walter is not counting LVE's visit as of yet (Pats Pulpit is) so I am noting that. Interviewed Hubbard. I think the Pats might not look to trade up for a QB but if they see a guy falling... wouldn't be shocked if they traded up for LB who can play multiple positions including either edge or with pass rush ability. But definitely should be by default very high on Edmunds. They also did not meet with Malik Jefferson which worries me as I do not like him (processing is poor I think) but he is another elite athlete at the position and, in theory, brings you some positional flexibility.

I'm sure they'd love Edmunds but I think he's long gone before they have a chance to pick him. Carter seems more realistic (and his Combine was insane).

Jordan Richards: Bigger safety/sub-package-guy with an elite 3-cone. Thinking back to the Super Bowl this one irrationally makes me so mad. Hard to peg one but maybe hard hitter and athletic (processing issues though) safety Dane Cruikshank fits that mold?

3-cone certainly seems like it's the big drill for DBs. Justin Coleman / Rowe / Richards were 1-2-3 in 3-cone for DBs in 2015. McCourty, Gilmore, Ryan, and Cyrus Jones were top-five in their respective years. I would think the top six in 3-cone this year - Jordan Thomas (who set the 3-cone record and played for Bob Stoops), two Penn State guys in Grant Haley and Troy Apke, Justin Reid (another Stanford S), Pittsburgh CB Avonte Maddox, and Northwestern S Godwin Igwebuike - would all be possibilities. Reid is a high pick and the rest are probably day three special teamer types.

The Third Down Selection Exceptions:
Geneo Grissom (Special teams additional ability?)

My last post and this crossed but Bob Stoops is apparently one of Belichick's guys, so there's a connection there.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Thanks - makes a lot more sense now! Updating with your updates too.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Final totals now:

Of Rounds 1-4, 19/24, 79.2%
Of Round 5-7, 6/15, 40.0%
Total: 24/39 for 64.1%.

 

[Super Nomario]

I guess we could add, too, former players for Belichick. Kliff Kingsbury was a draft pick in 2003; he coaches Texas Tech now (and previously coached at Texas A&M and Houston). Adrian Klemm was Belichick's first draft pick in 2000; he was UCLA's OL coach until 2016 (so a Kolton Miller connection) and coached at SMU for a few years before that.

 

[SMU_Sox]

I guess we could add, too, former players for Belichick. Kliff Kingsbury was a draft pick in 2003; he coaches Texas Tech now (and previously coached at Texas A&M and Houston). Adrian Klemm was Belichick's first draft pick in 2000; he was UCLA's OL coach until 2016 (so a Kolton Miller connection) and coached at SMU for a few years before that.

He would count as a connection for Conor McDermott then I think, spelling on mobile.

 

[ZMart100]

You could add in some CLE assistants- Pat Hill, Al Groh and John Settle. Hill was HC of Fresno St. when Logan Mankins and James Sanders were there. They took Ras-I-Dowling, who was a Groh recruit, and Antwoine Womack from UVA. Settle is RB coach at Wisconsin now, but he just missed James White there.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Here is the updated list of visits from Pats Pulpit + Walters + College Connections:

Please let me know if you see any mistakes.

Prospect, Position, College Visit Type per Walter, projected draft position, draft pick value.
Sorted By Position and then projected pick.

Spoiler

Center:
Frank Ragnow, G/C, Arkansas (WOR) 46 440

Cornerback:
Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State 15 1050
Joshua Jackson, CB, Iowa (PRO) 28 660
Duke Dawson, CB, Florida (PRI) 29 640
Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado 78 200
Anthony Averett, CB, Alabama 100 100
Isaac Yiadom, CB, Boston College 100 100
Tremon Smith, CB, Central Arkansas (WOR) 174 21.4
Tony Brown, CB, Alabama 174 21.4
Tarvarus McFadden, CB, Florida State 174 21.4
Keion Crossen, CB, Western Carolina (WOR) UDFA 0.5
Tyrin Holloway, CB, Western Illinois UDFA 0.5
Levi Wallace, CB, Alabama UDFA 0.5

Defensive Tackle:
Da'Ron Payne, DT, Alabama 13 1150
Maurice Hurst, DT, Michigan 32 590
B.J. Hill, DT, N.C. State 80 190
P.J. Hall^, DT, Sam Houston State (WOR, PRI) 100 100
Da'Shawn Hand, DE, Alabama (COM) 100 100
Derrick Nnadi, DT, Florida State 100 100
Justin Jones, DT, N.C. State 138 36.5
Bilal Nichols, DT/3-4DE, Delaware (WOR) 174 21.4

Edge:
Sam Hubbard, DE/3-4OLB, Ohio State (COM) 25 720
Harold Landry, DE/3-4OLB/OLB, Boston College (PRO) 25 720
Josh Sweat, DE/3-4OLB, Florida State (PRI) 45 450
Lorenzo Carter, 3-4OLB/OLB, Georgia (COM) 54 360
Jalyn Holmes, DE, Ohio State (COM) 82 180
Breeland Speaks, DE/3-4DE, Ole Miss (PRI) 82 180
Andrew Brown, DT/3-4DE, Virginia (COM) 87 155
Rasheem Green^, DE/DT/3-4DE, USC (PRO, PRI) 95 120
Dorance Armstrong Jr., DE/3-4OLB/OLB, Kansas (WOR) 99 104
Duke Ejiofor^, DE/3-4DE, Wake Forest (COM, PRI) 100 100
Tyquan Lewis, Edge, Ohio State 100 100
Kylie Fitts, DE/3-4OLB, Utah (COM) 138 36.5
Oqbonnia Okoronkwo, Edge, Oklahoma 138 36.5
Kentavius Street, Edge, N.C. State 138 36.5
Matt Dickerson, DT/3-4DE, UCLA (COM) UDFA 0.5

Kicker:
Matthew McCrane, K, Kansas State (WOR) UDFA 0.5

ILB/WLB/LB:
Rashaan Evans, ILB, Alabama (PRI) 21 800
Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise St. 21 800
Jarome Baker, LB, Ohio State 80 190
Christian Sam, ILB, Arizona State (PRI) 174 21.4
Josey Jewell, LB, Iowa 174 21.4
Shaun Dion Hamilton, LB, Alabama 180 19
Matthew Thomas, LB, Florida State 219 3.4
Bo Bower, OLB, Iowa (PRO) UDFA 0.5
Jermaine Carter, OLB, Maryland (PRO) UDFA 0.5
Ben Niemann, LB, Iowa UDFA 0.5
Kenny Young, LB, UCLA UDFA 0.5

Offensive Tackle:
Mike Mcglinchey, OT, Notre Dame 23 760
Kolton Miller^, OT, UCLA (COM, PRI) 31 600
Connor Williams, OT, Texas (PRI) 40 500
Orlando Brown, OT, Oklahoma 64 270
Will Richardson, OT, N.C. State (PRI) 80 190
Jamarco Jones, OT, Ohio State 100 100
Brandon Parker, OT, NC A&T 138 36.5
Rick Leonard, OT, Florida State UDFA 0.5

Punter:
Ryan Anderson, P, Rutgers (WOR) UDFA 0.5

Quarterback:
Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma 3 2200
Josh Rosen, QB, Notre Dame 5 1700
Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville (PRI) 15 1050
Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State (WOR) 50 400
Kyle Lauletta, QB, Richmond (COM) 95 120
Mike White, QB, Western Kentucky 100 100
Luke Falk, QB, Washington State (WOR) 138 36.5
Alex McGough, QB, Florida International (WOR) UDFA 0.5
Chad Kanoff, QB, Princeton UDFA 0.5

Running Back:
Ronald Jones II, RB, USC (PRI) 32 590
Sony Michel, RB, Georgia (COM) 34 560
Derrius Guice, RB, LSU (PRI) 36 540
Kerryon Johnson, RB, Auburn (PRI) 85 165
Kalen Ballage, RB, Arizona State (PRI) 125 47
Nyheim Hines, RB, N.C. State (COM) 125 47
Mark Walton, RB, Miami (COM) 138 36.5
Bo Scarbrough, RB, Alabama 138 36.5
Akrum Wadley^, RB, Iowa (SR, COM) 174 21.4
Darrel Williams, RB, LSU (COM) 174 21.4
Chase Edmonds, RB, Fordham 174 21.4
Josh Adams, RB, Notre Dame 219 3.4
Ryan Nall, FB, Oregon State (COM) UDFA 0.5
Ito Smith, RB, Southern Mississippi (PRO) UDFA 0.5

Safety:
Derwin James, Safety, Florida State 10 1300
Justin Reid^, S, Stanford (COM, PRI) 26 700
Ronnie Harrison^, S, Alabama (COM, PRI) 32 590
Damon Webb, S, Ohio State (PRI) UDFA 0.5

Tight End:
Hayden Hurst, TE, South Carolina (PRO) 28 660
Mark Andrews, TE, Oklahoma (COM) 90 140
Dalton Schultz, TE, Stanford (WOR) 100 100
Jaylen Samuels, TE, N.C. State 120 54
Durham Smythe, TE, Notre Dame 138 36.5
Ryan Izzo, TE, Florida State 174 21.4
Dimitri Flowers, TE, Oklahoma 175 21
Tommy Myers, TE, Connecticut UDFA 0.5
Alec Bloom, TE, Connecticut UDFA 0.5

Wide Receiver:
Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama (PRI) 16 1000
D.J. Moore, WR, Maryland (PRI) 29 640
Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M (PRI) 44 460
James Washington, WR, OSU 54 360
Equanimeous St. Brown, WR, Notre Dame 90 140
DaeSean Hamilton, WR, Penn State (PRO) 100 100
Keke Coutee, WR, Texas Tech (COM) 138 36.5
Auden Tate, WR, Florida State 138 36.5
Richie James, WR, Middle Tennessee (COM) 174 21.4
Trey Quinn, WR, SMU 174 21.4
Braxton Berrios, WR, Miami (PRI) 200 11
Vyncint Smith, WR, Limestone (PRO) 200 11
Steve Ishmael, WR, Syracuse UDFA 0.5

 

[Super Nomario]

Looking at that list, some interesting guys they didn't (reportedly, at least) meet with who might be options in the first couple rounds:
CB Jaire Alexander, Mike Hughes
DT Vita Vea, Taven Bryan
Edge Marcus Davenport, Arden Key
LB, QB, S: no one glaring
OT Brian O'Neill, Tyrell Crosby
RB Nick Chubb, Rashaad Penny
TE Dallas Goedert, Mike Gesicki, Ian Thomas
WR Courtland Sutton, Anthony Miller, D.J. Chark, Deon Cain

 

[SMU_Sox]

Looking at that list, some interesting guys they didn't (reportedly, at least) meet with who might be options in the first couple rounds:
CB Jaire Alexander, Mike Hughes
DT Vita Vea, Taven Bryan
Edge Marcus Davenport, Arden Key
LB, QB, S: no one glaring
OT Brian O'Neill, Tyrell Crosby
RB Nick Chubb, Rashaad Penny
TE Dallas Goedert, Mike Gesicki, Ian Thomas
WR Courtland Sutton, Anthony Miller, D.J. Chark, Deon Cain

I know tight end isn't a strength in this years class but I figured given that Gronk is injury prone to begin with that they would be looking at drafting a guy. It looks like they aren't going to draft one high or at all.

Random note of probably no interest: they met with Landry back in early March. The reporter speculated that it was a considerably long visit and thorough but noted that at the time there was likely no way they would get him at 31. Edge is their #1 for draft visits in value of the visits and tied for 1st with RBs at 14. So strong indications that they might invest heavily in it. Kiper and McShay mocked him to the Titans at 25 and they are decent at predicting it. Landry is at the top of most conventional edge boards.

Do you have any feelings on if they go OT early and if so who you think fits best?

 

[Super Nomario]

I know tight end isn't a strength in this years class but I figured given that Gronk is injury prone to begin with that they would be looking at drafting a guy. It looks like they aren't going to draft one high or at all.

If you read through the ITP Draft Guide (and we're not the only ones who feel this way), it becomes really clear that there aren't any complete tight ends. Obviously Gronk is a unicorn but a lot of these guys are downright poor blockers. Your list of TE visits includes arguably the two best blockers in the class (Smythe and Izzo) and two guys in Samuels and Flowers who might be Develin replacements. This Tom Gower Tweet sums it up:

Bob McGinn scout quotes on top TEs: Guy 1: "doesn't block" Guy 2: "He'll have to learn how to block more" Guy 3: "He wouldn't block me" Guy 4: "allergic to blocking" Guy 5: "He won't block"

So replacing Gronk is simply not an option. Maybe a late-round developmental complementary guys makes sense, either a pure blocker like Izzo, Symthe, or Troy Fumagalli, or competition for Hollister in Tyler Conklin, Deon Yelder, or Chris Herndon.

Random note of probably no interest: they met with Landry back in early March. The reporter speculated that it was a considerably long visit and thorough but noted that at the time there was likely no way they would get him at 31. Edge is their #1 for draft visits in value of the visits and tied for 1st with RBs at 14. So strong indications that they might invest heavily in it. Kiper and McShay mocked him to the Titans at 25 and they are decent at predicting it. Landry is at the top of most conventional edge boards.

I'll be surprised if Landry doesn't go in the top half in round one. It's worth noting that no team has invested fewer top-50 picks in edge rushers than the Patriots since 2000; Chandler Jones is really the only one. I think a guy like Carter or Hubbard with some positional flexibility is more their style than a raw guy like Davenport or Sweat, but never say never.

Do you have any feelings on if they go OT early and if so who you think fits best?

They absolutely would, given the last time they picked in the top-20 they took an OT; clearly it's a position they value, and clearly it's a position of need. As for will they, and who fits best, who knows? It says something that the two starting OT in the Super Bowl last year were Solder and Fleming; it is hard to imagine two more different body types and athleticism profiles. Kolton Miller and Brian O'Neill athletically are closest to Solder, Vollmer, or either of the two guys they drafted last year (Garcia and McDermott). (Worth noting: Mike McGlinchey didn't test so it's hard to know how he stacks up.) Williams tested well but he's a little smaller; OTOH, he tracks with a guy like Matt Light. Tyrell Crosby essentially in the same boat. Orlando Brown and Jamarco Jones had brutal Combines but some good tape; they might be Flemingish middle-round options. I don't think any of these guys is as "clean" as you'd like a first-round OT to be, but we might have said the same for Solder so in Scar/BB I trust if they do take a T early.

 

[RedOctober3829]

I don't think you'll be seeing any more "complete" tight ends coming into the league anymore. The spread offenses have turned tight ends into glorified WRs. Blocking TEs now are also glorified tackles in offenses that feature running. It's almost two different positions now.

 

[Super Nomario]

I don't think you'll be seeing any more "complete" tight ends coming into the league anymore. The spread offenses have turned tight ends into glorified WRs. Blocking TEs now are also glorified tackles in offenses that feature running. It's almost two different positions now.

Maybe, but then I don't see how you use a high pick on a TE who is essentially a zero in one aspect of the game. Treat it like RB then and use a couple mid-round picks on specialists and mix-and-match them.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Maybe, but then I don't see how you use a high pick on a TE who is essentially a zero in one aspect of the game. Treat it like RB then and use a couple mid-round picks on specialists and mix-and-match them.

That's what teams are doing now. There's flex tight ends and there's in-line.

 

[BaseballJones]

The downside to that approach, of course, is that it ends up being essentially a giveaway in terms of whether you're running or passing. That's the advantage of a multi-purpose RB or, in this case, a multi-purpose TE like Gronk. You can put him (Bennett is of the same mold) in there and then you can do either, based on what the defense presents. You put a Kyle Brady in there with a non-receiving RB and it's like a 95% chance of being a run.

 

[RedOctober3829]

PFF did a 7 round mock draft.
Pats picks:
Round 1
--#13 DE Bradley Chubb(Traded #23 and #43 to Washington)
--Traded #31 to Pittsburgh for #40 and #148

Round 2
--#40: QB Kyle Lauretta
--#63: LB Josey Jewell

Round 3
--#95: WR Dante Pettis

Round 4
--#109--traded to Philly for #130 and #206
--#130: OT Chukwuma Okorafor

Round 5
--#148: CB DJ Reed

Round 6
--#178: RB John Kelly(Traded up with Indy for #198 and #210)
--#206: S Troy Apke

Round 7
--#219: TE Dalton Schultz

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-pffs-2018-live-seven-round-all-analyst-mock-draft?utm_content=buffer049ae&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=nfl

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Anyone want to bet on Chubb making it to 13?

 

[SMU_Sox]

Anyone want to bet on Chubb making it to 13?

Sure. If he makes it out of the top 10 I will donate $25 to the Jimmy Fund. PFF probably did the draft based on their college based calculations. Turns out there is a correlation between college production and nfl success. I consider PFF and FO as interesting data points but not something to solely hang ones hat on. Chubb is going top 10, and probably top 4. Those guys know Chubb won't go #13 or at least I sincerely hope they do. I haven't read it but I would bet they probably prefaced it with that disclaimer.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Sure. If he makes it out of the top 10 I will donate $25 to the Jimmy Fund. PFF probably did the draft based on their college based calculations. Turns out there is a correlation between college production and nfl success. I consider PFF and FO as interesting data points but not something to solely hang ones hat on. Chubb is going top 10, and probably top 4. Those guys know Chubb won't go #13 or at least I sincerely hope they do. I haven't read it but I would bet they probably prefaced it with that disclaimer.

No disclaimers. Here's their picks before Chubb--1. Mayfield 2. Darnold 3. Rosen 4. James 5. Nelson 6. Josh Jackson 7. Barkley 8. Landry 9. Hurst 10. R. Smith 11. Fitzpatrick 12. Lamar Jackson

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Sure. If he makes it out of the top 10 I will donate $25 to the Jimmy Fund. PFF probably did the draft based on their college based calculations. Turns out there is a correlation between college production and nfl success. I consider PFF and FO as interesting data points but not something to solely hang ones hat on. Chubb is going top 10, and probably top 4. Those guys know Chubb won't go #13 or at least I sincerely hope they do. I haven't read it but I would bet they probably prefaced it with that disclaimer.

Yeah that was my point. No way in hell he slides that far.

 

[Super Nomario]

The downside to that approach, of course, is that it ends up being essentially a giveaway in terms of whether you're running or passing. That's the advantage of a multi-purpose RB or, in this case, a multi-purpose TE like Gronk. You can put him (Bennett is of the same mold) in there and then you can do either, based on what the defense presents. You put a Kyle Brady in there with a non-receiving RB and it's like a 95% chance of being a run.

It's better to have a multi-purpose guy. I'm just not sure where you get one anymore. It seems like it's easier to find RBs who have run / pass versatility nowadays. You can use play action to keep teams honest. You can also mix-and-match personnel - use your scat back with your blocking TE, play your blocking TE and your receiving TE at the same time, play your blocking TE with three WR, etc.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Rapaport confirmed that the Pats had Lamar Jackson in on a visit. According to him the Pats were impressed and intrigued.

 

[BaseballJones]

SI has the Pats taking LB Evans at 23 and then LB Vander Esch at 31. If that were to work out, suddenly linebacker goes from a weakness to having two exciting and talented young players to throw into the mix with Hightower and Van Noy, and that position becomes a major strength.

The Lamar Jackson stuff....interesting interesting.