2018 HoF Ballot

SemperFidelisSox

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These new committees will be how Bonds, Clemens, etc. all get in after they’re off the ballots. The Today’s Game committee will meet in 2018, ‘21, ‘23. Good chance the steroid guys get in then.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Good for Trammell, but this makes me wonder a little further why they couldn't have found space for Lou Whitaker on the ballot. Would have been cool for both he and Trammell to get inducted as a duo.
 

ngruz25

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Johan Santana really is an interesting case. He was absolutely robbed of the 2005 Cy Young, which went to a guy who he beat handily in literally every metric except wins (Bartolo Colon).

Had he rightfully won in 2005, Santana would have had three consecutive Cy Young awards. How many three-time Cy Young winners aren't in the Hall (non-steroid division), let alone winners of three straight?

That's a peak as good any almost anyone. He's basically Pedro-lite.

Interesting stat I saw on b-ref: in 2006, Santana led the league in ERA, ERA+, K/9, WHIP, and... IP. Talk about dominance. He was the best pitcher, and he did it more than anyone else.
 

sfip

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Why do I have a feeling Morris getting in will often be compared to Rice as to lowering the bar?
 

Sad Sam Jones

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So every year from 2000 through 2014 a group of 550+ voters determined that Jack Morris wasn't worthy of the Hall of Fame, but just three years later a different group of 16 people decided they know better? What a pointless process.

*
 

scottyno

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Johan Santana really is an interesting case. He was absolutely robbed of the 2005 Cy Young, which went to a guy who he beat handily in literally every metric except wins (Bartolo Colon).

Had he rightfully won in 2005, Santana would have had three consecutive Cy Young awards. How many three-time Cy Young winners aren't in the Hall (non-steroid division), let alone winners of three straight?
2 and they probably won't be eligible for at least 10 years, Kershaw and Scherzer (Clemens is the 3rd)
 

FormerLurker

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A moderately interesting fact is that the 1984 Tigers had been one of the few teams to win the World Series without any Hall of Famers on the roster (unless you count the manager). Also true (and likely to remain true) of the 1988 Dodgers (unless you count the manager again and also the aged Don Sutton who was not on the World Series roster, having been released in August).
 

InstaFace

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Is Thibs' ballot tracker on this thread yet?

bit.ly/hof18

35 public ballots, 1 anonymous, ~8.5% in.

Chipper, Thome and Vlad are 88%+. Edgar and Hoffman 81%. Logjam in the 60s: Schilling, Bonds, Clemens and Mussina all between 64-69%.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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So every year from 2000 through 2014 a group of 550+ voters determined that Jack Morris wasn't worthy of the Hall of Fame, but just three years later a different group of 16 people decided they know better? What a pointless process.

*
I don't think that Jack Morris should be in the Hall of Fame at all, but you could say the exact same thing about Alan Trammell.
 

lexrageorge

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Miller needed to have someone lobbying for him, IMO. He got 7 votes, and my guess is that at least 6 of those 7 came from the 8 players on the committee. With 5 execs sitting on the committee, he would really need near unanimous support from the players and media types.

Good for Alan Trammell. Morris in over Tiant is ridiculous, but that's likely due to the committee being an Old Boys Network that remembers Morris more than they remember the guy that threw his last pitch in 1982, and had his last good season in 1979.
 

charlieoscar

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Good for Alan Trammell. Morris in over Tiant is ridiculous, but that's likely due to the committee being an Old Boys Network that remembers Morris more than they remember the guy that threw his last pitch in 1982, and had his last good season in 1979.
Morris certainly got a higher percentage of votes from the BBWAA over the years than did Trammell.

The Hall of Fame was a good idea but it didn't take long before people who didn't belong to start slipping in (like Lloyd Waner following his brother). Also, back when, there were several cities that had more than one ML club, which probably helped some players. There were players who did belong but were left out so the Hall formed other voting committees , which did their jobs but also exceeded them at times. And nowadays there are entirely different ways to evaluate players, which leads to questions of "if so-and-so is in, why is this or that person?". What can one do except accept?
 

Tyrone Biggums

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If anything Morris getting in has made it 100% certainty that Moose and Schilling get in either by regular vote or veterans committee. Eventually.

Trammel deserved it, without question a player who was overlooked by sportswriters over the years.
 
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Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
I can't really fathom the idea of voting for Vizquel. It's a cliche to say "Hall of Very Good", but Vizquel might even be borderline for that. WAR disclaimer, yadda yadda, but Vizquel had only one season with an fWAR above 4. For his prime decade, ages 24 through 33, his average season fWAR was 2.7. BBref has it at 2.9 for the same period. On no planet do those numbers belong to a Hall of Famer.

I mean, longevity aside, Mark Belanger was probably a better player than Omar Vizquel. He's not in the Hall, nor should he be. I love defense, but there's a limit.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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As an Indians fan Omar was always my favorite – he's the first and only player whose name and number I'll wear on a jersey. Now I'm not going to make an argument that he's a Hall of Famer, but he's better than Rabbit Maranville, so he wouldn't be the worst shortstop in the Hall of Fame. That alone makes him a better selection than Jack Morris, who is now the worst of 70-some pitchers in the Hall of Fame.

*
 

axx

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Rajah is currently at 75% in the tracker, and Barry has one less vote than him. Seems like both will get in next year.
 

grimshaw

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Rajah is currently at 75% in the tracker, and Barry has one less vote than him. Seems like both will get in next year.
There are only about 12% of the votes in. Check the green boxes too. Those are votes changed from last year to add those guys this year. None of the writers have changed their minds yet, and one took Bonds off.
 
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BigMike

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There are only about 12% of the votes in. Check the green boxes too, those are votes changed from last year to add those guys this year. None of the writers have changed their minds yet, and one took Bonds off.
I know the ballot is overloaded, but how the bleep does someone take Bonds off it.

I do agree that their numbers will likely drop, it seems to me that in years past they have overperformed their final numbers in the early voting
 

E5 Yaz

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I do agree that their numbers will likely drop, it seems to me that in years past they have overperformed their final numbers in the early voting
We have enough anecdotal evidence from recent years to safely believe that those voters who don't choose to make their ballots available trend toward the more traditional in criteria and harsher toward PED types.

As someone who has changed his stances on PED users over time, I'm actually encouraged by the Bonds-Clemens vote. I suspect now that both will make it before the 10 years are up
 

charlieoscar

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I'm surprised that no one has mentioned ADHD medication and baseball players. There are reports that around ten percent of the players have received a therapeutic-use exemption from MLB that allows them to take the drug, which is about twice the rate of the general adult population. So, are baseball players preternaturally hyperactive or are they gaming the system? And should there be some reluctance to place these players into the Hall as has been done with PED users?
 

InstaFace

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I feel the same way about that as I do about PED use prior to 2004: they're following the rules of the system, operating within its bounds. Their entire career is about playing the game, hunting for any edge conceivable. If some people are gaming the system, and it helps them, it's on the system to respond.

I say this as someone who was diagnosed with ADD from an early age, and has taken ritalin periodically in life as my neurochemistry has waxed and waned in its ability to handle it. I've seen firsthand people gaming the whole ADD thing to get unlimited time on the SATs or other advantages from the educational system, heard them confess to me there was nothing actually wrong with them. I think less of them, but the problem is in the granting of the requests, not the making of them.

(I'll also say that we know the incidence rate of ADD/ADHD in the general population with about the same precision as we know the incidence rate of homosexuality, which is to say, it could be all over the map)
 

Spacemans Bong

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Bonds and Clemens will drop from their 70% totals, but by how much is interesting. They had about 64% of public ballots last year, so if they maintain 70% of public ballots you'd expect to see a decent rise in their vote totals. If those guys make it to the high 50s, that augurs well for their election.
 

InstaFace

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Currently with 61 ballots known (~15%), here's a sampling of candidates' +/- among returning voters:

Walker: +11 (36.1%)
Guerrero: +9 (90.2%)
Edgar: +9 (83.6%)
Schilling: +6 (68.9%)
Mussing: +2 (70.5%)
Sosa: +2 (13.1%)
Clemens: +0 (72.1%)
Bonds: -1 (70.5%) -- lost the vote* of a STL Post-Dispatch guy who wrote about how much integrity and character matter. The guy is still voting Clemens, but not Chipper Jones.
Billy Wagner: -3 (9.8%)
Jeff Kent: -3 (3.3%, may well drop off)

In the first-year-on-ballot group, Johan Santana has yet to garner a single vote, while Chipper and Thome appear to be shoo-in first-balloters.

* That voter's remarks from the article, btw....
I won’t take the easy route again this year. Jones will make it in easily without my vote. I’ll judge this class on more than just their standing against their peers. I’ll consider character, integrity and Morgan’s request, so I’ll stop voting for Bonds this year.

I’ll continue to vote for Clemens because he has done everything possible to clear his name, taking his fight all the way to the halls of Congress and then eventually to federal court, where he was acquitted on six counts of perjury.
:eek:
 

Bowlerman9

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Why did Thibs take Johnny Damon out of the grid?
Click the "+" sign above column AI and it will unhide all of the people expected to get under 5% (and in most cases, 0%). Damon is in there.
 

E5 Yaz

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Click the "+" sign above column AI and it will unhide all of the people expected to get under 5% (and in most cases, 0%). Damon is in there.
Thanks. the only reason I wondered was that he was there earlier ... and they hadn't similarly removed Santana
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
I'm trying to fathom how oblivious to evidence you have to be to vote for Guerrero but not Walker. They played the same position, in roughly the same era, for roughly similar amounts of time, and even if you are as digitally disadvantaged as Mordecai Brown, you can count the things Guerrero was better at on one hand and still have a finger left to flip the bird to America's sportswriters.
 

grimshaw

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I'm trying to fathom how oblivious to evidence you have to be to vote for Guerrero but not Walker. They played the same position, in roughly the same era, for roughly similar amounts of time, and even if you are as digitally disadvantaged as Mordecai Brown, you can count the things Guerrero was better at on one hand and still have a finger left to flip the bird to America's sportswriters.
But. . but. . Coors Field!
 

InstaFace

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With over 100 ballots, ~25% of the vote in, we've roughly hit statistical significance. At this point we have a top 10 of:

Name (Year on ballot; +/- from 2017's voters) current %
Chipper Jones (1) 98.1%
Jim Thome (1) 96.1%
Vlad Guerrero (2; +14) 94.2%
Edgar Martinez (9; +13) 80.6% (down from ~86% as recently as a few days ago)
Trevor Hoffman (3; +4) 80.6%
Roger Clemens (6; +1) 70.9%
Mike Mussina (5; +6) 70.9%
Barry Bonds (6; +0) 69.9%
Curt Schilling (6; +9) 67.0%
Larry Walker (8; +18) 39.8%

Crazy to think that we're going to have at least 3 elected, could easily have 5 elected, and not out of the realm of possibility that it's 6 or 7. And all of those top 10 deserving, though I have my grumbles about Hoffman.

I'm mostly just thankful about Edgar, whose vote totals from 2014 have gone: 25.2%, 27.0%, 43.4%, 58.6%, and now likely at least 70% in his 9th year. He may make it this year, he may not, but if not he'll almost certainly make it in 2019.

Also, Johnny Damon got a vote and Johan Santana got 2. Lastly, it's clear that the next cause celebre once the logjam clears will be Larry Walker - he leads all returning names in +/- from returning voters.
 

Gdiguy

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25% in makes it somewhat easy to do crappy projections - Edgar is +13 so far among returning voters (so extrapolate to +52), but needs to gain 73 over 2017. He does so much worse among non-public voters that he's going to have to be way over 75% on the tracker to get voted in this year, and it's not looking great so far.

Hoffman on the other hand, despite being equal right now, did about as well in private and public ballots last year, so he's already doing well enough to make it (needed 5 votes above last year and is +4 already). Vlad as well (missed by 15, is +14 already).

The big thing, so far, is that there's basically no movement this year on Bonds/Clemens - 0 and +1 respectively versus last year on returning voters. So it seems like they may have plateaued at 55% or so, until something major changes.
 

InstaFace

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Well part of what changes is that old curmudgeons get purged every year, and new voters added tend to favor those two. That's part of their general upward movement.
 

E5 Yaz

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Johnny Damon got a vote ... from Rick Telander of the Chicago Sun-Times. Here's the rationale:

Johnny Damon: He’ll never get in, but the guy thrilled many of us during those magical Red Sox-Yankees battles when the Theo Epstein-led Sox were emerging from their Cubs-like title drought. In 2002, Damon led the American League in triples. In 2004, he was second in the AL in runs scored. He sported wild hair and a lumberjack beard years before the latter became fashionable. I dug it.
https://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/rick-telander-baseball-hall-of-fame-ballot/
 

grimshaw

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24 out of the 140 voters so far have added Vladi this year who didn't vote for him last year.
Reason #486 why this voting system is moronic.

Other big gainers so far are Walker with 23 more, Schill and Edgar with 13 , and Mussina with 11.
Roger and Bonds haven't budged.

Vizquel has 25% which is good because he doesn't deserve it, but Scott Rolen has less than 10% which kind of shows that voters are still kind of clueless. I guess slap hitting defensive wizards at shortstop are way better than actual good hitting defensive wizards at 3b?
 
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Spacemans Bong

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Johnny Damon got a vote ... from Rick Telander of the Chicago Sun-Times. Here's the rationale:


https://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/rick-telander-baseball-hall-of-fame-ballot/
Honestly, there's worse players who have gotten many more votes than Johnny Damon. Almost 2800 hits, 56 career WAR, 2004 Idiot, certainly has the fame part down with being the Unfrozen Caveman Ballplayer, which he turned into a DHL campaign at one point.

One of the unfortunate side effects of the steroid logjam is guys like him can't hang around the ballot for a few years because you really can't waste a vote on someone you don't firmly believe should be in.
 

InstaFace

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Vizquel has 25% which is good because he doesn't deserve it, but Scott Rolen has less than 10% which kind of shows that voters are still kind of clueless. I guess slap hitting defensive wizards at shortstop are way better than actual good hitting defensive wizards at 3b?
Yeah but Rolen was really good at hitting (122 OPS+) for barely more than 2000 games, while Vizquel was very bad at hitting (82 OPS+) for nearly 3000 games. He subtracted value with every plate appearance, but he made it up in volume!
 

HurstSoGood

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All statistics, all mathematical models aside, have you watched players you just knew were Hall of Famers?
1. Pedro. What is understood needs not be discussed.

2. Barry Bonds. Arguably the best hitter ever.
He was screwed over by voters on MLB season superlatives (such as NL MVP) more times than any other player - and that occurred a number of times before the McSosa-stained 1998 season.

Sick fact: From his age 24 season (1989) until his last season (age 42/2007), he always finished with more total BB's than K's.
 

charlieoscar

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Sick fact: From his age 24 season (1989) until his last season (age 42/2007), he always finished with more total BB's than K's.
It wasn't until 1951 that total strikeouts exceeded total walks in every season for MLB. Before that, it varied. All of which makes Bonds's feat more remarkable. You had people like Joe DiMaggio, who struck out 369 times in 7672 PA; Joe Sewell, who in his final 10 seasons struck out 48 times in 5539 PA.

An ESPN piece by Tim Kurkjian from June 2009 said: "Last year, 90 players struck out at least 100 times -- that's more 100-strikeout seasons than there were from 1900 to 1962 combined (80)." You can add another 787 player-seasons from 2009 through 2017 (bb-ref).

Btw, I was thinking of Nomar before his wrist troubles.
 

grimshaw

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All statistics, all mathematical models aside, have you watched players you just knew were Hall of Famers?
You should start a thread so we can talk about Eric Davis. It's an interesting topic because there are a lot of all-world type players who couldn't stay healthy.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Joe Posnanski has been writing up everyone on the ballot, which I always think is a fun exercise. Many players on the ballot aren't worthy of enshrinement - nobody's arguing otherwise - but everyone on there was good or interesting in some way, and it's worth remembering that, particularly since it seems like the only context people talk about most retired players in is whether or not they should be in the Hall (with borderline or otherwise flawed cases usually getting the most attention - I'm sure there have been more tributes to Omar Vizquel than Jim Thome this voting period).
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Honestly, there's worse players who have gotten many more votes than Johnny Damon. Almost 2800 hits, 56 career WAR, 2004 Idiot, certainly has the fame part down with being the Unfrozen Caveman Ballplayer, which he turned into a DHL campaign at one point.

One of the unfortunate side effects of the steroid logjam is guys like him can't hang around the ballot for a few years because you really can't waste a vote on someone you don't firmly believe should be in.
All very true, but those votes usually come from hometown writers or people with connections. For a random voter from Chicago to vote for him seems odd, given how many more qualified candidates there are right now. To your last point, it is indeed seemingly wasting a vote.
 

BuellMiller

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1. Pedro. What is understood needs not be discussed.

2. Barry Bonds. Arguably the best hitter ever.
He was screwed over by voters on MLB season superlatives (such as NL MVP) more times than any other player - and that occurred a number of times before the McSosa-stained 1998 season.

Sick fact: From his age 24 season (1989) until his last season (age 42/2007), he always finished with more total BB's than K's.
I think Ted Williams might object to that statement...
 

coremiller

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I think Ted Williams might object to that statement...
Kind of depends on how you feel about pitchers and MVPs. In addition to the years he won, Bonds was the probably best NL position player in 1991, 1995, 1996, and 1998. Glavine had a case over him in 91 (Pendleton won), Maddux could have won in 1992 and 1995 (Bonds won in 92, Larkin won in 95), and Kevin Brown had a great 1998 (Sosa won). Bonds should have won in 96. Bonds finished first in NL position player WAR 11 times in 16 years, plus 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, and 4th place finishes (the one year he didn't place highly was 1999, when he missed 50 games with an injury). That's amazing.

Williams won in 46 and 49, and probably should have won in 41, 42, 47, and maybe 51. OTOH, Ted's WAR is probably a little inflated by the lack of good defensive stats from that era. BREF dWAR has him only slightly below average for LF, and Dimaggio only slightly above average in CF, when most accounts of the time suggest the gap was considerably bigger than that. If Ted was posting Manny-like numbers in LF while Dimaggio was the first coming of Andruw Jones in CF, that could be enough to make up the difference in 1941, maybe 1951 (when Berra won and Ted finished slightly ahead of Doby in WAR).

Where the writers' animus against Bonds really shows up is in how low he finished in MVP votes. At least Ted finished second in three of the years he got screwed (he was 13th in 51). Bonds was 2nd in 91 but 12th in 95, 5th in 96, and 8th in 98. Then his decidedly inferior teammate won over him in 2000.

What's interesting about Bonds' mid-90s run is that the rest of the league had already started roiding, while by most accounts Bonds didn't start really bulking up until 1999. Even using PEDs no one could catch a non-PED Barry. No wonder he got pissed off and decided to teach the league a lesson.
 

E5 Yaz

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Things have been holding fairly steady: Chipper, Thome and Vlad are locks. Edgar and Hoffman are still above the threshold, but could falter if the +/- 58% of ballots still unaccounted for don't work in their favor. Mussina needs a little help, but is still possible.

RC/BB have seen the totals slightly slip. If form holds and the unreleased ballots are from more traditional voters, they've peaked for this year.
 

grimshaw

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Of 9 new voters, all have voted for Clemens, 8 for Bonds (odd), 7 voted for Martinez, Mussina and Schilling. Looks like a matter of time for the latter 3 those guys.

Not much support for Walker (2) or Rolen (1) though.
 

InstaFace

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Results are announced next Wednesday the 24th.

We're at an estimated 44% of ballots (185), a better showing for Thibs than last year. E5's summary is still broadly correct. Votes per ballot is down a tenth to 8.92. Vlad has jumped above Thome, and while Edgar is holding strong, Hoffman is slipping a bit closer to the line. Clemens and Bonds have lost ~5% on their average in the last few weeks, but are still way up over last year and look good for eventual admission.

Name (Year on ballot; +/- from 2017's voters) current %
Chipper Jones (1) 98.4%
Vlad Guerrero (2; +33) 94.6%
Jim Thome (1) 93.5%
Edgar Martinez (9; +19) 81.1% (Up from 80% in the last 2 weeks)
Trevor Hoffman (3; +10) 78.4% (down from >80%)
---- 75% ----
Mike Mussina (5; +14) 73.5%
Curt Schilling (6; +15) 66.5%
Roger Clemens (6; +2) 65.4% (down from 70%)
Barry Bonds (6; +2) 65.4% (down from 70%)
Larry Walker (8; +26) 39.5%
Omar Vizquel (1), 30.3%

In other voting news:
  • Andruw Jones has picked up a few votes and is now barely over the 5% threshold; he may hang on and survive the great 2018 clearing of the backlog. Rolen, Kent, Sheffield, McGriff, Sosa and Wagner will clearly hang on.
  • Jeff Kent (-6) and Billy Wagner (-4) are the only returners to have a net loss of multiple votes among returning voters.
  • Edgar's divide between his current % and the % he'd need on remaining ballots is roughly equal to the divide last year between public and private ballots. He's at a -11% spread right now and last year had a -12%.
  • Meanwhile, Mussina is close enough that I should note: his public-private split the last few years has been -14%, -18%, and then -20% last year (!). He's highly unlikely to make the jump this year.
  • Vizquel has been on a tear lately, and is up over 30% from ~17% a few weeks back.
  • Vizquel and Walker are the only people in between Clemens/Bonds at 65% and McGriff at 17%. Edgar was at 27.5% as recently as 3 years ago.
 

InstaFace

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With 2 days left before the voting results are announced, and only 20 new ballots unearthed in the last week, not much has changed. Edgar Martinez is down to 79.7%, however, and seems rather unlikely to survive his public-vs-private-ballot divide (last year a -7.3% vs his pre-results percentage). Hoffman likewise is down slightly to 77.2%, although he actually had a +1.3% shift from his pre-results percent so he's in a better position.

It won't really clear up much of "the backlog" if the only person elected besides first-balloters is Vlad. Let's hope Edgar and even Hoffman (who wouldn't have my vote) get elected, so the big-hall people can focus their votes on other cases and not have so many situations where they'd have voted for 13 or 14 players.
 
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axx

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The backlog should clean out soon enough. The next four years the only real viable candidates (ironically enough) is Rivera, Jeter and A-Rod. Helton might get some votes but lol coors.
 

scottyno

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The backlog should clean out soon enough. The next four years the only real viable candidates (ironically enough) is Rivera, Jeter and A-Rod. Helton might get some votes but lol coors.
Also Roy Halladay next year and some guy named Papi in 4 years