I'd actually really enjoy trading Price. I've found him hard to root for since the start, still dislike the shit he did in Tampa, and at 31m aav think he's grossly overpaid. Also, he really can't even pitch against the Yankees at all, which is kind of a significant detriment. I don't know that I'd want the Sox to eat 40%, but would be interested in at least floating the idea. Price has been worth just under 11 WAR here in four years.3.74 FIP. At $31m, trade him if you find a partner.
2019-20 Offseason Discussion
- Thread starter chawson
- Start date
If they trade Price, I would think it's even more likely that the person replacing Porcello's innings is... Rick Porcello.
The Cardinals also are a really ideal fit, as they were the runners up last time and need pitching. Taking back Wong and maybe Jose Martinez is pretty ideal. Takes care of 2B.
Cardinals interested in Price:
View: https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1204594239109099520
The #STLCards have long-standing interest in David Price and are one potential suitor if #RedSox trade him. The Cardinals were runners up when Price signed with Boston four years ago.
@JeffPassan reported today multiple teams are targeting Price in trade talks.
View: https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1204594239109099520
The #STLCards have long-standing interest in David Price and are one potential suitor if #RedSox trade him. The Cardinals were runners up when Price signed with Boston four years ago.
@JeffPassan reported today multiple teams are targeting Price in trade talks.
Two things people still aren’t getting about David Price:
1. He’s still a borderline ace. Before the wrist injury (edit: 7/19), David Price had a 3.24 FIP. That mark would have ranked 9th in MLB over a full season.
2. His poor marks against the Yankees in 2018 were directly linked to tipping his changeup, a mechanical issue which was later fixed.
Given what teams are paying for starting pitching this year, Price’s contract does not need to be subsidized. It certainly doesn’t need to be paid down in half.
If it is indeed the Cardinals, then the Sox should really target Carlos Martinez in return. Benny and Price for Carlos Martinez, Jose Martinez and Dexter Fowler lines up earlier in the off-season, but I think the needle has since moved Price’s value a little further toward the black.
1. He’s still a borderline ace. Before the wrist injury (edit: 7/19), David Price had a 3.24 FIP. That mark would have ranked 9th in MLB over a full season.
2. His poor marks against the Yankees in 2018 were directly linked to tipping his changeup, a mechanical issue which was later fixed.
Given what teams are paying for starting pitching this year, Price’s contract does not need to be subsidized. It certainly doesn’t need to be paid down in half.
If it is indeed the Cardinals, then the Sox should really target Carlos Martinez in return. Benny and Price for Carlos Martinez, Jose Martinez and Dexter Fowler lines up earlier in the off-season, but I think the needle has since moved Price’s value a little further toward the black.
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I know we went back and forth on this already, but Price has started 8 games in Yankee Stadium since signing with BOS in 2016, 42 ERs allowed in 39.1 innings for a 9.61 ERA.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats.cgi?full=1¶ms=site|NYC21|priceda01|pitch|IP|
This is where I am. Maybe we need to pitch in a few dollars, but I doubt it. And this nonsense about trading him *with Benintendi* is just insane.
trading price alone would get us under the luxury tax threshold right? IF we move JBJ then we could actually sign some peripheral guys to fill in the roster? That seems to get us down to 184.2 going off baseball ref, and then we could let Bloom try and get some minor FAs to replace those guys production. If it helps us reset the cap and possibly retain Mookie after next season I would be all for it. Mookie would probably be looking at a 10 ml pay increase next season so it seems like we could swing that? Especially if JDM opts out, which seems more likely after next season. We are going to need some help from the farm eventually, hopefully some prospects take a step forward
You don't know how much of Price's salary you'd be eating, or what bad contract you'd be bringing back, so it's impossible to know.
I‘d gladly cede the point if I were cherry-picking or speculating and I get that the numbers speak for themselves, but the pitch tipping issue really is anchored in actual reporting. If anything, the unplayable numbers he put up against NY — while holding the rest of MLB to a 3.32 ERA in 520 innings over that same time (excluding postseason) — only reinforces the fact that something was up.
To bring it even clearer into view, Price also won in New York his first game back after fixing the tipping issue midway through the 2018 postseason, throwing 6.2 innings and giving up 2 runs.
It’s also plausible — though I am speculating here — that the team would occasionally hold his starts against New York, or pull him early, which the Boston and New York fan bases metabolized as him being “scared of the Yankees.” A pitcher probably knows if their pitches are being tracked, even if they don’t know exactly how.
Anyway, it’s probably all a moot point soon. I’m not going to succeed in convincing Sox fans to like the guy, but I think we should be able to agree that some element external to his pitching ability was affecting at least some of his numbers against New York.
Okay, so let's build a trade around Price and Myers.
Myers has a very backloaded deal, which is interesting. He was paid only $7m in the last three seasons (although there was a signing bonus), but is now owed $20m in each of the next three seasons, before a $20m club option/$1m buyout in 2023. This means his AAV is only about $14m, but he's owed $60m in actual dollars.
However, his performance has been godawful. After four seasons with OPS+ figures between 109 and 115 (pretty good, but less good for a LF/1B), he had a down year last year, posting a 95 OPS+. Basically, he posted a season where he hit like Bradley, except as a bad outfielder and corner infielder. This was either worth half a run of fWAR or -0.3 of rWAR, depending who you trust. And his strikeout rate spiked to 34 percent, driven by an increase in whiffs. He really might be completely cooked. He's always had trouble with sliders down, but in 2019 he started having trouble with high strikes. I'd rather start Dalbec at first.
Price is owed 3/$96m ($31 AAV), and is projected to be worth 2.6 fWAR by Steamer in 2020, and presumably a bit less per year going forward. So basically the problem with Price isn't that he's bad, it's that his $/WAR proposition is awful. He's likely to produce WAR at $13 or $14m a piece, when the FA market has mostly been in the $8-9m range per win. But he has upside, in that he was pitching very well before his weird cyst sidelined him, and that seems like the kind of medical issue that can be dealt with. If he had thrown 170 IP, instead of 107, of 3.60 FIP, we're probably not talking about trading him.
Price is overpaid by $20m or so — or maybe less if this season's pitching inflation is to be believed — but Myers is overpaid by the entire $60m he's owed. If I'm taking Myers back for Price, I want a decent prospect, too.
Myers has a very backloaded deal, which is interesting. He was paid only $7m in the last three seasons (although there was a signing bonus), but is now owed $20m in each of the next three seasons, before a $20m club option/$1m buyout in 2023. This means his AAV is only about $14m, but he's owed $60m in actual dollars.
However, his performance has been godawful. After four seasons with OPS+ figures between 109 and 115 (pretty good, but less good for a LF/1B), he had a down year last year, posting a 95 OPS+. Basically, he posted a season where he hit like Bradley, except as a bad outfielder and corner infielder. This was either worth half a run of fWAR or -0.3 of rWAR, depending who you trust. And his strikeout rate spiked to 34 percent, driven by an increase in whiffs. He really might be completely cooked. He's always had trouble with sliders down, but in 2019 he started having trouble with high strikes. I'd rather start Dalbec at first.
Price is owed 3/$96m ($31 AAV), and is projected to be worth 2.6 fWAR by Steamer in 2020, and presumably a bit less per year going forward. So basically the problem with Price isn't that he's bad, it's that his $/WAR proposition is awful. He's likely to produce WAR at $13 or $14m a piece, when the FA market has mostly been in the $8-9m range per win. But he has upside, in that he was pitching very well before his weird cyst sidelined him, and that seems like the kind of medical issue that can be dealt with. If he had thrown 170 IP, instead of 107, of 3.60 FIP, we're probably not talking about trading him.
Price is overpaid by $20m or so — or maybe less if this season's pitching inflation is to be believed — but Myers is overpaid by the entire $60m he's owed. If I'm taking Myers back for Price, I want a decent prospect, too.
yea Myers for Price seems like a terrible trade. His best hitting season is basically Mitch Moreland and he is terrible in the OF. I want no part of that contract on a team that is ostensibly trying to cut payroll. If you are gonna trade Price just make it a salary dump for a lottery ticket prospect over trading for Will Myers.
edit: PRice to the Angels does make more sense now for sure. IDK what they would possibly give us for him though. Upton can be a solid player I guess, and then move Beni to CF?
edit: PRice to the Angels does make more sense now for sure. IDK what they would possibly give us for him though. Upton can be a solid player I guess, and then move Beni to CF?
Sale/Price are bargains compared to Cole. Keep them, hope for good health, and go compete with the Yankees.
Oof, you're right. Wow, SD has been pretty idiotic about its few free agent signings. If the Ken Rosenthal tweet above is true ("Pads extremely active, involved in a large, almost dizzying, number of pursuits"), they're probably going to trash their minor league system again for more stupid trades/FA signings.
But that's neither here nor there ... I have confidence that Bloom knows what he's doing and will make a smart decision.
But that's neither here nor there ... I have confidence that Bloom knows what he's doing and will make a smart decision.
I’ve been fixated on Patiño for awhile and I’d love to see him in a deal with Preller, but I’m gonna guess Price/Bradley/Workman for Myers/Lamet.
Is this meant to say Bloom might have a higher opinion of Myers than others or that he would somehow ‘bring the best’ out of him? Sentimentality? Sorry, I’m a bit confused on the relevance of this.
The division is lost for the foreseeable future. Best case scenario, the Red Sox are wild card contenders for the next few years. As presently constructed, I’m not even sure they’re better than Tampa going forward. This team is staring at 3rd place. Start the mini rebuild now. There’s nothing worse than being a middle of the pack, 87 win wild card team that has no real chance at competing for a championship. Shed payroll, restock the farm system through trades, come back as legitimate contenders in 2022 or so.
yea i hate to say it but that may be the case. we would need eovaldi to actually be a great pitcher to have much of a chance next year. Maybe Bloom can do what they did down in tampa and make something out of almost nothing?
And the Rays traded him when he was 24 and still had five years of team control. Maybe they knew he'd never be that good again.
yea that deal was the rays and nats collectively screwing over the padres. Mike Rizzo is a really shrewd evaluator of talent. I wont be surprised if we look back on that Corbin deal as one of the best FA signings of the last few years.
edit: for comparison, Corbin the last two years has been worth 10.3 bWAR and Cole 12.6. I know you can say that Cole's ceiling is higher but Corbin's FIP in 2018 season was 2.47 lower than Cole's this year. But honestly that kind of makes me question the value of that stat more than anything
Also Idk how yall feel about quoting other message boards, but when david price is mentioned as being a trade target on reddit, pretty much every team's fans hate the very idea of it.
edit: IDK why the formatting is being so weird and cant fix it
View: https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/e917vu/morosi_the_stlcards_have_longstanding_interest_in/
edit: IDK why the formatting is being so weird and cant fix it
View: https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/e917vu/morosi_the_stlcards_have_longstanding_interest_in/
But why would Bloom do this? Concerning payroll, bringing back Myers doesn't get you close to where you want to be. Price is owed $32 million per for the next 3 seasons and Myers is owed is owed 22.5 per for the same period. Guessing perhaps Myers would play first base? I think they can do better both in payroll savings/return for Price and replacement at first.
I don't understand the argument of if you're trading Price then you might as well trade Mookie too. If the plan is to dip under 208 and then go back over it once you've reset the tax then who exactly are they going to be spending that money on that's better than Mookie? It makes way more sense to keep him, both because he's going to be really really good for a long long time, and because he's an exciting player who would keep fans interested if they did go through a mini rebuild before they restocked.
So the tax is based on AAV and not the actual amount that the team surpasses the "cap" by?
This is where I am too. If we can shed 80% of the 96MM owed to Price, we're probably in a prime position to reset the tax this year. If we keep Mookie, having a long term core of Betts along with Devers, Xander, Benintendi, Sale, E-rod and Chavis seems fairly desirable to me. Even if we're not going to compete next year, the people who seem deeply pessimistic about the next four or five years - to the point of wanting a fire sale - strike me as a big group of Debbie Downers. I think trying to field a competitive team over the next 5 years without Mookie Betts is a much more tenuous proposition than resetting the tax and resigning him.
Unrelated - Am I the only person who thinks it is possible they trade JDM?
If they’re able to trade Price and end up keeping Betts then yes that core of Betts, Sale, X, Devers, Benintendi, ERod, Chavis, maybe Dalbec and Casas coming along too... that’s pretty damned good and would be a lot of fun to watch.
Agreed. It's remarkable to me how the narratives drive the perception around contracts.
Sale: early extension followed by spotty performance and potentially long-term injury issue extended @ $145/5 of $25/yr for 5 yrs
VS:
Strasburg: 209IP (2nd best career mark) durable campaign followed by excellent post-season performances ending in a WS title signed @ $245/7 or $35/yr for 7 yrs.
Who knows how either of these contracts will play out? Add in Coles 9 at $324M and if Sale can healthy (huge IF I know) this horrid extension might end up being a brilliant move for the Sox.
Thirded. Resetting the luxury tax this year probably gives the Sox their best opportunity to make a competitive offer to Mookie next winter.
I see his realistic market being the Chicago White Sox. Unless some team thinks he's still a capable outfielder. If there is only one suitor then you're probably better off keeping him until July.
He can block tradres to 3 teams, CWS are certainly one of them since they are the most obvious fit.
I'm not optimistic that they'll find someone to take 80% of Price's contract but would be ok with such a deal if they did. If they do not, then I also think they'll trade JD and fill the DH role from within. The problem with the former is that we'll then have another SP slot to fill (at some cost). So I've come to the conclusion they'll trade JD.
Not totally sure I agree with your conclusion but let’s also not forget that Toronto will soon be pretty good, possibly starting in 2021.
Yes, but does it make way more sense to Mookie? We won't know till next winter. So we can't really think of it in terms of "keeping Mookie". We have to think of it in terms of a gigantic offensive/defensive hole in the OF that we're going to have to fill next winter, with Mookie being one possible candidate to fill it. Or to put it another way, think of Mookie's long-term prospects with the Sox the same way as if he were an upcoming FA who played for another team.
With the FA deep freeze seemingly over, Mookie might reasonably expect to exceed Trout’s contract. If the Sox think his market is going to push 400 million you probably go ahead and cash in now in an aggressive trade market.
The only way they could make a reasonable bid for Mookie in that range is to trade him now to reset the luxury tax clock, or whatever its called.
Exactly, with the notable proviso that no draft pick loss is involved re-signing Mookie.