2019-20 Offseason Discussion

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
I’d rather go with a kid
In principle I agree, but which kid? Houck might be ready by September or even mid-year but throwing him in the fire on Opening Day seems drastic. I think they almost have to sign some kind of cheap-ish FA to round the rotation out, probably a bounceback candidate of some kind to keep the price down, and the main question is whether it's better to stick to the devil they know in Porcello or gamble on somebody with no history here like Wacha.

The maximum an MLB player's salary can be cut in arbitration is 20%.
I'm confused. How is that relevant to Porcello's situation?
 

StuckOnYouk

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Well if, for instance, the rival executive in question works for Tampa Bay, they’ve probably got a pretty good idea of how the guy in charge of Boston’s FO operates.
I'm not talking about just this particular instance. It's used quite often.
 

YTF

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On a one-year deal at the veteran minimum would be fine by me. They're clearly trying to go cheap on the year and get bargain basement deals, perhaps so they can try to maybe retain Mookie long term, so the devil you know and all that. But if you're talking another deal in the double digits, I'm not so sure I'm down with that, durable or not.
A 1 year deal at the veteran minimum for Porcello just is not happening.
Can you come up with a comp situation where that has occurred?
Where a free agent takes a one year deal to stay with his team? Doesn't that happen all the time? CC Sabathia?
EDIT: Didn't see the vet minimum part. Agree that he gets more than that. But I can see him back for say 5 mil or so?
$5 million would surprise me, but I was replying to Mueller's Twin Grannies' suggestion of Veteran Minimum.
1 year for Porcello at $8-10 million seems more likely to me. I'd bring him back at $5 million, if that was possible.
Have a missed something in my entire life of following baseball inside and out or does the veteran minimum just not exist? Because I think he just made that up as far as baseball goes.
Correct it’s an NBA term.
The maximum an MLB player's salary can be cut in arbitration is 20%.
I'm confused. How is that relevant to Porcello's situation?
He won’t be going to arbitration. He’ll be a free agent.
Holy fuck, this became unraveled in a hurry.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Can you cite something substantive here? Not just vague speculation. I have not seen anything that has suggested that Mookie is unhappy in Boston. Not one thing. Bring something more than gut feelings.
I mean aside from musings from Shank and others that have come out on interviews with 98.5 has them in the studio there hasn't really been anything out there. When dealing with future FA and rumors everything is pretty much baseless speculation. Mookie going for the most money is baseless as well. Until it actually happens. I'm just saying that if Shank is saying something or alluding to something with this team it might be wise to listen since he seems to be the medium that this ownership is going through lately especially with the Dombrowski stuff. Hypothetically, let's say the team cleared room to get under the tax and JD didn't opt-in would everyone be resigned to the fact that Mookie is probably a goner in FA? The answer is probably yes. Its probably yes for one of two reasons. One, the team won't pay for him thus creating a built-in narrative to shield them. Two, he doesn't want to be here and would rather be somewhere else due to some reason whether its money or other. Either way in the next 12 months we'll probably know.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I mean aside from musings from Shank and others that have come out on interviews with 98.5 has them in the studio there hasn't really been anything out there.
Sooo, basically bullshit aimed at stirring up discussion in the cesspool that is sports talk radio. Got it.

Shaughnessy is a troll. Him saying/implying something does not amount to "smoke".
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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Wow, that escalated quickly.

I wasn't serious about the "veteran minimum" thing. It was a roundabout way of saying I'd take him back for dirt cheap because that's about as much value as he has at this point.
 

nvalvo

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Can you cite something substantive here? Not just vague speculation. I have not seen anything that has suggested that Mookie is unhappy in Boston. Not one thing. Bring something more than gut feelings.
Alex Speier wrote in his book that when Betts first came up, Lester and Lackey made him feel unwelcome in the clubhouse. They are, of course, gone.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
MLBTR intriguingly floats the idea of a Travis Shaw reunion, though only by saying that Shaw would be open to it.

Shaw's 2019 is kind of an enigma. Two things happened to him: his contact rate went down sharply, and his flyball rate went way up. Statcast shows a huge increase in his launch angle (from career numbers in the 14-16 degree range to 24.4 last year), which could account for both. The question is, is this a correctable swing flaw, or have pitchers just figured out how to pitch to him? He's only going on 30, and while that's plenty old enough for decline to be real, it's also young enough for a bounceback to be a plausible scenario. Assuming his price would be quite low, in the under-$5M range, is he worth a flyer? If nothing else, he's a good defender.
 

Sox Puppet

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I don't know ... for that price, I'd rather just re-sign Brockstar than Shaw. Assuming both would serve as backups at several positions and occasional spot starters, at least with Holt you know more or less what you're getting.

On a separate note, with Strasburg re-upping for 7/$245 and Gerrit Cole possibly going to the MFY for 9/$324 (which would be hilarious -- if they thought the Ellsbury contract was bad ...), I wonder if the market has shifted enough to where someone might take a partially subsidized David Price off of our hands. In a world where those pitchers are getting $35-36M per year over several years, three years of Price at, say, $25M per year suddenly doesn't sound so awful.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Shaw can play 1st, 2nd, or 3rd. But I prefer Holt as Sox Puppet suggested
But Sox Puppet suggested that either Shaw or Holt would be a utility backup. We have two openings on the right side of the infield, and unless I'm missing something, filling those holes from the current 40-man would require either Travis or Lin to be an everyday player.

If the idea is to make Chavis the full-time 1B and sign Holt to play 2B, that could probably work. But I don't see a scenario where either Holt or Shaw comes to the Sox to be a backup. We don't really have anybody for them to back up.
 

jon abbey

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Why isn't Moreland ever mentioned as a possibility, just an assumption he'll make more elsewhere? It feels like someone like him or Smoak should be available cheaply, the market for first basemen is so weak these days.
 

Sox Puppet

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I am assuming some combo of Travis/Chavis/Marco Hernandez as the 1B/2B starters as of now, but hoping desperately they upgrade one of those and use Chavis at the other
Yes, this was what I had in mind too, with Dalbec coming up as 1B after he's had a few more minor league reps playing the position. Dalbec isn't going to supplant Devers at 3B, so unless he's trade bait, the natural solution seems to be him at first, Chavis at 2B, and (as I suggested) Holt or some other super-utility player playing a healthy amount around the diamond to spell those guys.
 

Manramsclan

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Strasburg's deal at 7 years $245M (AAV $35M) certainly reframes the Chris Sale contract.
Their career stats are eerily similar, and although Sale has more mileage on his arm, he is slightly younger (9 months). While Sale spent last year scuffling and being injured, Strasburg also has a history of arm issues and we haven't seen him the season after a deep postseason run.

All things considered, the Red Sox blew any excess leverage they would have had with a FA Chris Sale this offseason by signing him before the season in which he underperformed. That said, they also have committed $100M less and $6 Million less per year to a pitcher who is the same age and has similar performance history.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Why isn't Moreland ever mentioned as a possibility, just an assumption he'll make more elsewhere? It feels like someone like him or Smoak should be available cheaply, the market for first basemen is so weak these days.
It's a good question. I don't know that he'll make more elsewhere--he's 34 and coming off a year where he couldn't crack 100 games played. I just have a nagging (and perhaps insufficiently evidence-based) feeling that he's never going to be able to be a strong player for a whole season. And his defense, while still competent, isn't what it was a couple of years ago. He's certainly not somebody I'd rule out, though. Neither is Smoak.

I think my point is mostly that there's an apparent need to pick up somebody like that, and not to be a backup either. Shaw was the worst of those three last year, but he's also the youngest.
 

chawson

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Smoak’s a lot like Moreland was entering 2018 — a low BA, good power guy with high barrel rates and exit velocity hinting at some possible upside. The rise of the shift has stifled them both, but Smoak has responded by becoming more selective at the plate, and it’d be nice to have another big OBP guy in our lineup.

I feel like Bloom might get trickier than that, and get someone who can also play elsewhere on the diamond. But at least Smoak wouldn’t require a platoon against lefties, and there’s some hope he’d recover his numbers against them playing in Fenway.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Smoak’s a lot like Moreland was entering 2018 — a low BA, good power guy with high barrel rates and exit velocity hinting at some possible upside. The rise of the shift has stifled them both, but Smoak has responded by becoming more selective at the plate, and it’d be nice to have another big OBP guy in our lineup.
Actually Moreland has been remarkably consistent overall through his three years with the Sox, the only notable change being a power spike in 2019. His wRC+ has gone up in each succeeding Sox year. His problem is not that his offense has been "stifled" but that he can't stay healthy enough to give us 150 games of it.
 

chawson

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Actually Moreland has been remarkably consistent overall through his three years with the Sox, the only notable change being a power spike in 2019. His wRC+ has gone up in each succeeding Sox year. His problem is not that his offense has been "stifled" but that he can't stay healthy enough to give us 150 games of it.
The staying healthy thing is big, yeah. All I’m saying is that like Smoak, Moreland is one of the most consistently shifted-on guys in MLB, so a lot of his well-hit balls get turned into outs. That even ramped up a bit last year.

2019: 82.8% of PA (8th in MLB among >150 PAs)
2018: 68.0% (19th)
2017: 76.8% (5th)
2016: 77.9% (8th)
 
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The Gray Eagle

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Benintendi is in the best shape of his life!

https://theathletic.com/1447634/2019/12/09/red-sox-takeaways-david-prices-contract-suddenly-doesnt-look-so-bad/?source=dailyemail
Actually, this is good news in that Cora wants him to play at a lighter weight this year, in addition to making some mechanical adjustments. Hopefully he is working on that. I doubt Cora would be talking like this if Benintendi was planning on playing at the same weight as last year.

When Andrew Benintendi’s name came up, Cora was quick to note that hitting coach Tim Hyers and new assistant hitting coach Peter Fatse visited with Benintendi in St. Louis a few weeks ago. Cora said he feels Benintendi added too much weight ahead of the 2019 season, noting that he was stronger, but slower in some of his moves.

“I don’t know if he wanted to hit home runs or he felt like he lost so much weight in the previous season that he needed to show up a little bit heavier or stronger, and obviously it didn’t work out,” Cora said. “There’s a few things, as far as mechanics, that we’ve been talking about it with Timmy and Peter, and if we get there, he’ll be good.”
More Cora quotes on Benitendi in the Glob:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/12/09/andrew-benintendi-better-place-with-his-hitting/Xq5Cx7r2RJTzllP1Rek7EN/story.html?et_rid=1842189476&s_campaign=108stitches:newsletter
But one note from Cora certainly stood out: Benintendi’s body wasn’t where it needed to be last season, which also translated to some of his defensive woes in the outfield.

“It’s not that he was out of shape, his body was different,” Cora said. “He was stronger. Some of his moves were slower than previous years... He’s going back to being the athlete that we like to see.”

Benintendi certainly appeared to be a step too slow in 2019. His UZR dropped down from 3.8 to 1.7 and, on numerous occasions, he had difficulty on fly balls. The swing itself was slow and long.

“If you guys think that that’s the real Benny striking out [140] times, I don’t see it,” Cora said. “He’s a better hitter than that, and hopefully, he can put the ball in play a little bit more and he can hit for average and be the athletic player we saw a few years ago.”
 
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chrisfont9

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Strasburg's deal at 7 years $245M (AAV $35M) certainly reframes the Chris Sale contract.
Their career stats are eerily similar, and although Sale has more mileage on his arm, he is slightly younger (9 months). While Sale spent last year scuffling and being injured, Strasburg also has a history of arm issues and we haven't seen him the season after a deep postseason run.

All things considered, the Red Sox blew any excess leverage they would have had with a FA Chris Sale this offseason by signing him before the season in which he underperformed. That said, they also have committed $100M less and $6 Million less per year to a pitcher who is the same age and has similar performance history.
Would they have been able to pay Sale that much less now than they did? Players want to be paid for their accomplishments whether they just happened or they are a year old, and Sale's track record before this year was so deep and spectacular, I'm not sure they could have gotten much more of a discount off him than they already did. At least not without offending him. And anyway, doesn't his extension kind of already reflect the injury concerns?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I can't understand the idea of paying David Price to pitch elsewhere. Unless they're convinced he's toast and they can sucker a team into taking ~$60M off their books, it's punting the next couple years for the sake of the luxury tax.

I'm excited about the Bloom era, but I don't trust he has the magic to trade a subsidized Price, let Mookie walk, and still field a contender.
 

sean1562

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how much do you think Teheran gets? I would probably prefer him over Porcello at this point
 

jon abbey

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Interestingly I was just coming here to post that someone on the LAA Reddit posted six hours ago that they were out on Cole, trading Cozart, trading for Price and going after Rendon and Ryu. The Cozart part happened soon after.
 

DeadlySplitter

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that said, actually reading the recent posts in this thread, do the Angels have anyone? Angels were not the first trading partner I had in mind. I can't imagine we take on Upton, for example.
 

nvalvo

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that said, actually reading the recent posts in this thread, do the Angels have anyone? Angels were not the first trading partner I had in mind.
I think what the Angels would have is a willingness to take over most/all of the contract. If we can shed $75m or so of Price's deal — and with multiple teams in the running, we may be able to do even better than that — we have a real shot at getting under $208.

(Or at least getting close enough that we could dip under with some deadline trades if things aren't going well.)
 

amfox1

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I think what the Angels would have is a willingness to take over most/all of the contract. If we can shed $75m or so of Price's deal — and with multiple teams in the running, we may be able to do even better than that — we have a real shot at getting under $208.

(Or at least getting close enough that we could dip under with some deadline trades if things aren't going well.)
I think the Sox will likely subsidize the contract down to approx. $18mm per year (ie, getting $42mm of savings), which should allow the Sox to get some value back in the trade. Those savings could be front-loaded (by paying less in the first year) in order to make it easier to get under the 2020 luxury tax threshold. For instance, the Sox could agree to pay $10mm in 2020 and $16mm in 2021/2022 towards Price's contracts, which would effectively reduce the payroll for luxury tax purposes by $21mm in 2020 ($31mm AAV off the books, less $10mm payment). The savings would be less in the other years, but getting under the threshold is important only for 2020.

A Price trade along these lines would immediately put the Sox under the threshold, even before a JBJ trade.
 

Kramerica Industries

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I think what the Angels would have is a willingness to take over most/all of the contract. If we can shed $75m or so of Price's deal — and with multiple teams in the running, we may be able to do even better than that — we have a real shot at getting under $208.

(Or at least getting close enough that we could dip under with some deadline trades if things aren't going well.)
Same owner that took on ALL of Vernon Wells' contract. Also the Joe Madden connection with Price.
 

Murderer's Crow

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amfox1

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Jeff Fletcher @JeffFletcherOCR· 5m
Billy Eppler says the #Angels can afford to add multiple players who each make more than $20M. He wouldn’t answer any more when asked about multiple 25M players
 

nvalvo

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If they're going to trade Price, I think they should trade Mookie too. IMO, a good Price is critical to their chances of competing for a title. Without him, it's such a long shot, why not strip it down some more and actually pick up some assets.
One certainly wonders how Bloom imagines replacing both Price's and Porcello's innings. A healthy Sale and Eovaldi will help, and Eduardo Rodriguez may have turned a corner.

I think the Sox will likely subsidize the contract down to approx. $18mm per year (ie, getting $42mm of savings). Those savings could be front-loaded (by paying less in the first year) in order to make it easier to get under the 2020 luxury tax threshold. For instance, the Sox could agree to pay $10mm in 2020 and $16mm in 2021/2022 towards Price's contracts, which would effectively reduce the payroll for luxury tax purposes by $21mm in 2020 ($31mm AAV off the books, less $10mm payment). The savings would be less in the other years, but getting under the threshold is important only for 2020.

A Price trade along these lines would immediately put the Sox under the threshold, even before a JBJ trade.
I don't think that's how that works. Doesn't any money paid to a team that acquires the contract count like AAV equally across the duration of the contract?
 

JBJ_HOF

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If you trade Price, you should trade Betts, JBJ, Benintendi, Eovaldi and Vazquez too. Load the farm, gear up to sign Springer, Lindor, Correa.
 

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One certainly wonders how Bloom imagines replacing both Price's and Porcello's innings. A healthy Sale and Eovaldi will help, and Eduardo Rodriguez may have turned a corner.
The problem I have with that is that I've always been extremely bearish on Eovaldi, both in talent and ability to ever stay healthy.

I don't think that's how that works. Doesn't any money paid to a team that acquires the contract count like AAV equally across the duration of the contract?
Your understanding is mine as well
 

sean1562

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I mean, Porcello's inning really shouldn't be that hard to replace. Julio Teheran is basically an NL Porcello that always seems to overperform his peripherals and throws a solid amount of innings every year. Why not try him as a #5 starter if he can be had cheaply?

edit:

https://www.mlb.com/news/2020-mlb-free-agents-by-position
Of this list of FA pitchers, there are several I feel like could be a better upside risk than Porcello. So hopefully Bloom is the guy to sift through everyone here and find the few that can throw some solid seasons together. What happened with Alex Wood? He was great two years ago
 

nvalvo

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The problem I have with that is that I've always been extremely bearish on Eovaldi, both in talent and ability to ever stay healthy.
Well, yeah. I think we all share those anxieties to varying degrees, given his track record. It only highlights the issues with trying to deal #1/#2-type starter who has averaged more than 200 IP/162 games (his best stat!) to save money in a season in which you are putatively intending to contend.

I mean, Porcello's inning really shouldn't be that hard to replace. Julio Teheran is basically an NL Porcello that always seems to overperform his peripherals and throws a solid amount of innings every year. Why not try him as a #5 starter if he can be had cheaply?
If we're trading David Price to save money, I imagine Houck, Johnson, Reyes and Shawaryn are fighting for the fifth spot. But Teheran would be a solid candidate for the fourth spot, sure.

How much do we think he'd cost? The Braves turned down 1/$12.