2019-20 Offseason Discussion
- Thread starter chawson
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There aren't many, but Brad Keller for the Royals has been very solid since they grabbed him before 2018.
On the lists I've seen, Johan Santana seems like the best of later vintage ... a true Rule V pick (as opposed to a guy with some experience who through circumstances was eligible).
The best of all time, of course, is Roberto Clemente ... but so many factors have changed that it's not really the same draft as it was then
The bullpen was not the problem last year. Or, to the extent it was, having a guy who the Laws of God and Nature demand that he only pitch in the 9th inning with a lead of 1-3 runs would not have helped.
Rule V pick has a 50-game suspension for meth in his background
https://qconline.com/sports/river_bandits/bandits-infielder-among-suspended-for-drug-use/article_70662fba-3ce1-5e5c-be97-5bd573024ab6.html
https://qconline.com/sports/river_bandits/bandits-infielder-among-suspended-for-drug-use/article_70662fba-3ce1-5e5c-be97-5bd573024ab6.html
I believe unequivocally that letting Kimbrel go was the right move. Likeable enough guy that I hope I'm wrong here, but I believe he's toast.
I would have liked to see someone other than Tyler Thornburg be the highest paid guy in our 2019 bullpen, but it should not have been Kimbrel. My pre-2019 vote was for Ottavino.
The latest on the Price trade talks per Mark Feinsend
--Sox have held trade talks with 5 teams(Padres, Cardinals, White Sox, Reds, Angels)
--MLB executive: "This SP market is only helping the Red Sox. All of a sudden, Price's contract doesn't look so crazy."
--Attaching Benintendi or any younger player to a Price trade has not been considered and won't be.
--Players rumored to be a possibility of coming back to the Sox in a deal would be Wil Myers in a SD deal(would save $10 million on CBT), and Matt Carpenter in an STL deal(would save $13 million on CBT)
--Red Sox have gotten calls from multiple teams on all of it's pitchers including Chris Sale. Unlikely that Sale would be moved.
https://www.mlb.com/breaking-news/david-price-red-sox-trade-possibilities
--Sox have held trade talks with 5 teams(Padres, Cardinals, White Sox, Reds, Angels)
--MLB executive: "This SP market is only helping the Red Sox. All of a sudden, Price's contract doesn't look so crazy."
--Attaching Benintendi or any younger player to a Price trade has not been considered and won't be.
--Players rumored to be a possibility of coming back to the Sox in a deal would be Wil Myers in a SD deal(would save $10 million on CBT), and Matt Carpenter in an STL deal(would save $13 million on CBT)
--Red Sox have gotten calls from multiple teams on all of it's pitchers including Chris Sale. Unlikely that Sale would be moved.
https://www.mlb.com/breaking-news/david-price-red-sox-trade-possibilities
Myers deal is actually 6/83mm, but is tremendously backloaded (owes 67.5 in final 3 years). His AAV, though, is 13.833, which would save Sox 17.167mm in CBT but they’d shed much less in real dollars.
I don’t know if AAV gets recalculated for acquiring team (with a big CR going to the trading team) in situations like this, but I don’t believe it does.
The Reds and White Sox being involved is interesting because there are no real big bad contracts on those teams that would come back the other way (unless you count Alex Colomé‘s roughly $10m arb figure).
If one of those orgs is interested at essentially taking over Price’s contract as is, then we shouldn’t have to settle for a deal that requires us to eat $40m worth of Matt Carpenter in return.
It doesn't necessarily mean that, though, right? It could be Price + cash for some marginal prospects. We shed some but not all of Price's AAV and get back something (probably nothing too exciting) in return. I would assume the Red Sox are sending no cash if they are taking back Carpenter, Myers, or some other albatross.
I'd rather Carpenter over Myers. get it done Chaim.
regardless good to hear they won't attach anyone major to Price
regardless good to hear they won't attach anyone major to Price
Not necessarily, no, and I’m sure we’d at least get a Josh Tobias-type at the very least. I’m just happy that the expectation is no longer that the Sox would have to cover half his salary — or take on the equivalent in a useless player — in return.
Is Carpenter still a legitimate option at second base? Doesn't look like he has played there much since 2013.
Do they have the pieces to get Hader? Maybe not the prospects, but someone like Benintendi might be enticing to Milwaukee. Keep him the hell away from the Bronx.
I’d have it the other way around.
To put it simply, Carpenter is a pull-heavy lefty who‘d lose power in Fenway, whereas Myers is a pull-heavy righty who’d gain it. They’re also five years apart and while both are essentially first basemen going forward, Carpenter’s next-best position is third base while Myers can also play left (maybe even center in a pinch), which is more useful to us since the outfield is likelier to be in flux before Devers will.
Why? Having already conceded the next decade to the MFYs, it's hard to see how one player would change things.
They are getting calls about Eovaldi? Are they answering those calls? I have mixed feelings about the guy, we all saw how great he can be and he seems like a solid person to boot. But I thought his contract was supposedly untradeable?
Given the state of this market, Eovaldi's contract isn't that bad if he stays healthy. But if he's healthy and pitching well, we want him on the Red Sox.
No, and he's not much of a 3B either, so he'd be a 1B in Boston. He's also got no-trade for 2020, so that's another hurdle to overcome
Yeah, I'd rather take the risk of him rebounding than Price squeezing out a couple more quality years (at a much higher rate). Presumably the Sox wouldn't trade two starters, given the cost of finding replacements.
Like E5 said, Clemente is probably the best all around and Santana is obviously pretty good too. IIRC George Bell was a Rule V guy as well. They Jays got the 1987 AL MVP for nothing, so that's a good return.
For me, the Patron Saint of Rule V players is John Trautwein. He was a physics major at Northwestern, so he was a smart dude. I wonder what he thought of the rule where he had to be on the roster for the entire 1988 season but only managed to get into nine games (16 innings all together!). I never knew what Lou Gorman saw in him.
Yeah, thats a hard pass on Hader. I'd like to keep my bigots on this team to a minimum and by minimum I mean none.
hoo boy..here's your Brock Holt replacement...
"The Red Sox are in agreement with free-agent infielder Jose Peraza on a contract for the 2020 season, Robert Murray reports (via Twitter). The ISE Baseball client will take home a one-year deal worth close to $3MM, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets. He can boost his salary via incentives."
"The Red Sox are in agreement with free-agent infielder Jose Peraza on a contract for the 2020 season, Robert Murray reports (via Twitter). The ISE Baseball client will take home a one-year deal worth close to $3MM, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets. He can boost his salary via incentives."
You've also got Josh Hamilton, Dan Uggla, Joakim Soria and Shane Victorio; for recent guys at least.
If Price gets traded (of course depending on who he is traded for) what does the rotation look like? WIth Porcello gone and possibly Price - it's looking a little thin.
TBA. For the most part I don't see much concerning the rotation being settled until Price or someone else is moved. I think Chaim needs to have an idea of where he stands in relation to the luxury tax before he begins to add players. I think it's possible that we see an opener situation at least once each time through the rotation, but if that's to happen there is a fair amount of work to be done with the bullpen as well.
Chad Jennings says the Sox are willing to pay down Price’s contract enough so that the acquiring team would only owe him $20 million/year. So that would be a total of $36 million they’d throw in a trade.
If he’s willing to sign for a low contract to return “home”, why not have a veteran guy in the clubhouse that might get you some innings in July-September? Why not do that?
How low is a "low contract"?
For a team looking to cut payroll and get under the luxury tax cap, is spending, say, $4M (MLBTR says 1/6M) on a pitcher who might not contribute at all a good use of resources? That's a pricey flyer that has as much chance of being a total flush of money as it does of paying off. I'm picturing a result somewhere between Schilling 2008 and Smoltz 2009.
Perez may be a questionable signing at similar dollars, but at least there's a reasonable expectation he'll be healthy enough to pitch 150+ innings. That alone can provide value that someone starting the year on the IL will not.
I think everyone's assuming a pure 1 year contract for Hill. I think he's a prime candidate for a 1 year with a team option. Something like 1/$5 with a $8-10M team option for year 2. That way the team eats the rehab, but if he's healthy, you get the second year at a relative value otherwise you walk away.
I think we'll probably hoard these guys until the deadline. Either we're out of it, and they will be valuable trade chits if they are pitching at least decently, or we're in it and we need them.
The risk is an injury or cratering performance, but I think you take that risk.
When paying part of a traded player’s contract, how exactly is that counted towards the luxury tax? Is it counted at the time of the trade or when the money is actually paid?
My reason for asking is this hypothetical scenario: if the Sox trade David Price this year and contribute $0 in 2020, $30 million in 2021, and $6 million in 2022, does that count as $12 million per year for the next 3 years or does the actual amount correspond to the actual year? If it’s the latter, it seems like a good way to get below the tax threshold.
I apologize if this has been discussed before - I’ve tried to read every thread but not sure if I succeeded.
My reason for asking is this hypothetical scenario: if the Sox trade David Price this year and contribute $0 in 2020, $30 million in 2021, and $6 million in 2022, does that count as $12 million per year for the next 3 years or does the actual amount correspond to the actual year? If it’s the latter, it seems like a good way to get below the tax threshold.
I apologize if this has been discussed before - I’ve tried to read every thread but not sure if I succeeded.
Pretty sure it's averaged out over the remainder of the contract. So if they pay $36M in total, it would count as $12M per year over the three years remaining on the deal. They can't work around the luxury tax hit with that any more than they can by front or back loading a contract in general. It's all about the annual average.
Alex Speier wrote here:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/09/28/complete-explanation-red-sox-luxury-tax-and-payroll-situation/EuiO7nuDwHIPqHBABM2I8L/story.html
That you can do it by specific year.
I was, and may still be, a tad confuzzled by the AAV issue re subsidizing the salary of a traded player. In Speier's column referenced by JBJHOF above, is the following paragraph:
"There could be even more elaborate possibilities involving Price. Is there a deal to be had with a team that would pay all of his 2020 salary — and then get all of Price’s contract in 2021 and 2022 ($32 million each year) subsidized by the Sox? Presumably, the Sox could offer one or more prospects as deal sweeteners. Such a move would create the same kind of 2020 flexibility as a deal involving Betts, even if it guaranteed that the Sox would spend enormous sums in 2021 and 2022."
So unless I'm misunderstanding something, this approach seems to have merit.
I don't feel terribly comfortable opposing Speier on a question like this, but I can also read:
Am I missing something?
That language is from the CBA, Article XXIII.C.2.iii. Unless I am misunderstanding how they are using "pro-rata," it sounds like any contribution has to be accounted for in the club payroll calculation evenly per year, with some exceptions based on performance incentives, player options, or deals that involve either a PTBNL or cash considerations.
Am I missing something?
I
The CBA language is written in legalese and is therefore impenetrable to me. I'm not 100% sure that "assignor' and 'assignee' Clubs refers to two teams involved in a player trade?
yeah I think Speier is just flat wrong here. Even as recently as the Punto trade and going back to Renteria, it’s been the total amount included spread over the years left. It would defeat the purpose of the whole AAV base to be able to parcel out as you see fit.
That seems to me to mean that they can determine when they pay the receiving team their portion. Like they can trade him now and agree to pay his 2021 and 2022 salary in those years as long as they're not spending a dime in 2020. That's only in real dollars, not luxury tax applicable salary on paper.
It would be an awfully obvious cheat of the luxury tax if they can trade off paying anything on Price's deal this year only to essentially put it all back on the payroll in 2021. If they paid him $1M in 2020 and $61M in 2021 (and kept him), it would count $31M against the luxury tax each year. Makes no sense to not count cash sent with him to subsidize his salary in exactly the same way.
In context it is clear that the assignor is the team trading away a player along with cash considerations, while the assignee is the team receiving that player in trade.
How much do you spend on a backup catcher? Padres are looking to move Austin Hedges, arb1 eligible next year and set to make about $2.9 mil. Offense dipped a lot this season, but he was fine in 2018. Defense is immaculate.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/12/quick-hits-sign-stealing-investigation-update-padres-myers-hedges-kluber-braves-culberson.html
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/12/quick-hits-sign-stealing-investigation-update-padres-myers-hedges-kluber-braves-culberson.html
Considering Sandy Leon was projected the receive $2.8 million in arbitration this year, probably not that much. Backup catcher seems like slot where the team can shed some payroll.
Law's point about age/level with Arauz is well-taken. He's been the youngest player on most of the teams he's been on. The year he got dinged for amphetamines, he was an 18 year-old on a full-season A-ball team with no other 18 year-olds and one 19 year-old: Forrest Whitley, now the Astros top prospect — who was also just dinged for an (unnamed) drug of abuse.
So sure, his performance in the minors wasn't amazing. But it's one thing to put up a .700 OPS as a middle infielder in AA. It's another thing to do so as a 20 year-old, in a league where the average age of the hitters is 23+ and the average age of the pitchers is 24+.
So sure, his performance in the minors wasn't amazing. But it's one thing to put up a .700 OPS as a middle infielder in AA. It's another thing to do so as a 20 year-old, in a league where the average age of the hitters is 23+ and the average age of the pitchers is 24+.