2019-20 Offseason News, Rumors, Trades

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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LOL...Stevie is not buying the Mets to make money, he is doing it to win the fucking World Series. The guy is uber competitive and basically lives to say Fuck You to the establishment. It will be interesting to see who he brings in to run baseball ops. But he will spend money. Lots of Money
I am the last one to defend private equity types or hedge fund founders or finance bros in general.

However this narrative that they take these well run businesses and tear them down for pure profit is silly. They clearly will do whatever they can, including scrapping a business, for profit but these people typically only invest when they can get good terms on an undervalued asset. The undervalued aspect is key here because it likely means the individual entity is not performing well or its industry is in upheaval or both. This is true of many media companies as well as the Mets.

Cohen isn't a good guy imo but the idea that he will start selling off Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil is silly. He is more likely to invest in the monetization of latent revenue streams similar to what Sox ownership did with the ballpark/tv etc after Henry & Co came onboard than he is to auction off Jacob deGrom to Qatar or something.

And if there is an undervalued sports team in NY, its the Mets. Per Forbes they were worth ~$2.3B which is about half the Yankees valuation (number one) and about 900mm less than the Sox. I wonder if the Mets should be much closer to a ~$3B handle given their market etc. My guess is that they will have a much better chance of making money under Cohen versus the WliPonzis.
 

nattysez

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Cohen isn't a good guy imo but the idea that he will start selling off Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil is silly. He is more likely to invest in the monetization of latent revenue streams similar to what Sox ownership did with the ballpark/tv etc after Henry & Co came onboard than he is to auction off Jacob deGrom to Qatar or something.
No one said the bolded, but good strawman.

Ask A's fans what it's like to have an owner who maximizes revenues and only cares about the team to the extent that them being good helps maximize revenues.

Cohen may be in a different boat if he really likes the Mets and invests in them like Cuban or Ballmer did with their NBA teams, but the idea that there is zero chance he won't "monetize latent revenue streams" while also reducing costs is folly. And "reducing costs" doesn't mean giving away Alonso. It means not paying him when he becomes a free agent. Again, just look at the A's for the "reducing costs" blueprint.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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No one said the bolded, but good strawman.

Ask A's fans what it's like to have an owner who maximizes revenues and only cares about the team to the extent that them being good helps maximize revenues.

Cohen may be in a different boat if he really likes the Mets and invests in them like Cuban or Ballmer did with their NBA teams, but the idea that there is zero chance he won't "monetize latent revenue streams" while also reducing costs is folly. And "reducing costs" doesn't mean giving away Alonso. It means not paying him when he becomes a free agent. Again, just look at the A's for the "reducing costs" blueprint.
To be clear, the bolded was my view and I wasn't representing anyone else's opinion of Cohen. I think he is slimy as hell.

You are also right that some ownership groups are more interested in lowering costs to maximize margins versus investing in players etc to win.

I was simply pushing back on the reflexive idea that finance goons buy things simply to sell them off for parts or ruin generally good businesses. There are always exceptions but these people typically dont buy something unless its underperforming and yet still holds value.

I would argue that even at $2.6b, the Mets are likely undervalued. I also think the key to maximizing value for that club is to build them into a consistent winner versus the As model or the Royals where there are some real upside limits (e.g the As inability to move to San Jose).

This isn't excusing how the As are run btw. But they have some serious impediments to how they can manage that franchise imo.
 
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sean1562

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honestly it is probably for the best in their case, they are at least a year out from being big playoff contenders. if they can get kopech up to strength and maybe turn lopez around, i think the FA market for big time superstar OFs is pretty strong next season. Maybe just save the money til then?
 

jon abbey

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Second year in a row a big ticket free agent turned down the White Sox despite making the highest bid (Machado).
The White Sox offer to Machado was $250M guaranteed with the potential to get to $350M with incentives and options, the Padres offer was $300M guaranteed.
 

Clears Cleaver

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I am the last one to defend private equity types or hedge fund founders or finance bros in general.

However this narrative that they take these well run businesses and tear them down for pure profit is silly. They clearly will do whatever they can, including scrapping a business, for profit but these people typically only invest when they can get good terms on an undervalued asset. The undervalued aspect is key here because it likely means the individual entity is not performing well or its industry is in upheaval or both. This is true of many media companies as well as the Mets.

Cohen isn't a good guy imo but the idea that he will start selling off Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil is silly. He is more likely to invest in the monetization of latent revenue streams similar to what Sox ownership did with the ballpark/tv etc after Henry & Co came onboard than he is to auction off Jacob deGrom to Qatar or something.

And if there is an undervalued sports team in NY, its the Mets. Per Forbes they were worth ~$2.3B which is about half the Yankees valuation (number one) and about 900mm less than the Sox. I wonder if the Mets should be much closer to a ~$3B handle given their market etc. My guess is that they will have a much better chance of making money under Cohen versus the WliPonzis.
I worked for stevie for years. He is not an activist type. He is not in this to boost revenues and sell off assets and make a couple hundred million in operating profit. He's a trader. He is in this purely to win a WS. Its partly personal redemption, partly vanity, partly because he's a huge sports fan and grew up a Mets fan. His box at MetLife is between the Johnson's and Mara's. If he could own the Jets he would, but baseball has always been his first love.
 

Wingack

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Kinda love this for both teams if it goes down.

As always, if the Rays acquire someone it is worth paying attention to, they must see something they can work with here with Renfroe.
 

jon abbey

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Will have to read more about this and see who the fourth player involved is, but Edwards seems like an odd target for TB with Franco and Brujan already on the way as even higher touted middle infielders ready in a year or two.
 

jon abbey

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Huh, two way player Jake Cronenworth is the other player going to SD, interesting.
 

jon abbey

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This seems pretty lopsided at first glance in favor of TB (big shocker), Pham is 4 years older than Renfroe (both OFs), Cronenworth is 5 1/2 years older than Edwards (both IFs). I think there's a pretty sizable chance that Preller will be fired by this time next year, but he is going down swinging at least.
 

jon abbey

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He is four years older than Trout, so maybe a baby daddy Trout? :)
 

jon abbey

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Alex Avila signs with the Twins, Howie Kendrick back to the Nats.
 

VORP Speed

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We need @VORP Speed to chime in.
This is how the Rays survive. Pham is great but getting older and more expensive and not open to any kind of team-friendly extension, so swap him out for a younger OF power bat with more years of control who plays great defense AND a top prospect. Keep the line moving. Cronenworth was at AAA and blocked, so an easy give. Edwards is young enough that any positional logjams within the overflowing sea of talent on the farm will sort out over time through shifting positions or trades.

Renfroe feels like a Garcia replacement, so wouldn't be surprised to see another splashy-for-the-Rays move to add an OF to backfill for Pham.
 

jon abbey

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Twins are quietly signaling that they are in on 2020. Not surprised. Avila and Pineda both good pickups.
Pineda is suspended for the first quarter of the season, and even with him they are down a couple of SPs from last year (kept Odorizzi and Pineda, lost Gibson, Perez is still unsigned). Avila is fine to replace Castro at backup C, but the Twins need impact pitching, starters and relievers both, if they want to do anything in the postseason if they can get there again.
 

VORP Speed

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This is how the Rays survive. Pham is great but getting older and more expensive and not open to any kind of team-friendly extension, so swap him out for a younger OF power bat with more years of control who plays great defense AND a top prospect. Keep the line moving. Cronenworth was at AAA and blocked, so an easy give. Edwards is young enough that any positional logjams within the overflowing sea of talent on the farm will sort out over time through shifting positions or trades.

Renfroe feels like a Garcia replacement, so wouldn't be surprised to see another splashy-for-the-Rays move to add an OF to backfill for Pham.
Blake Snell offers his analysis of the move.....

View: https://twitter.com/draysbay/status/1202823140713357318?s=21
 

Plympton91

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Pineda is suspended for the first quarter of the season, and even with him they are down a couple of SPs from last year (kept Odorizzi and Pineda, lost Gibson, Perez is still unsigned). Avila is fine to replace Castro at backup C, but the Twins need impact pitching, starters and relievers both, if they want to do anything in the postseason if they can get there again.
Especially because Pineda won’t be available for the postseason, right? Or is it just ineligible for the post-season in the year you’re initially suspended?
 

jon abbey

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Especially because Pineda won’t be available for the postseason, right? Or is it just ineligible for the post-season in the year you’re initially suspended?
Yeah, he was ineligible last year but is eligible this year.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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Blake Snell offers his analysis of the move.....
This is kind of interesting. I know that we're all very impressed by moves like this where a GM looks down the road and realizes that he probably won't be able to sign a potential free agent in the future, so he's swapped for a cost-controlled prospect (AKA a slapdick prospect). That's usually plays pretty well with us. But at what point does it erode confidence with the players on the MLB team? Like, if you're constantly taking "stars" and swapping them out year over year, at some point the players left have to be wondering who's next, right? And wouldn't that hurt team morale. Or do players really not give a shit about all this (though it seems Snell sorta does)?

I'm not looking to get into an argument about whether this makes business sense, I think that we can all agree that it does, to us on the outside. I know that the "real" world is completely unlike a MLB clubhouse, but like brain drain from a good organization demoralizes the rest of the staff no matter who replaces the person, does the same happen to MLB teams?
 

Murderer's Crow

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This is kind of interesting. I know that we're all very impressed by moves like this where a GM looks down the road and realizes that he probably won't be able to sign a potential free agent in the future, so he's swapped for a cost-controlled prospect (AKA a slapdick prospect). That's usually plays pretty well with us. But at what point does it erode confidence with the players on the MLB team? Like, if you're constantly taking "stars" and swapping them out year over year, at some point the players left have to be wondering who's next, right? And wouldn't that hurt team morale. Or do players really not give a shit about all this (though it seems Snell sorta does)?

I'm not looking to get into an argument about whether this makes business sense, I think that we can all agree that it does, to us on the outside. I know that the "real" world is completely unlike a MLB clubhouse, but like brain drain from a good organization demoralizes the rest of the staff no matter who replaces the person, does the same happen to MLB teams?
I think the short answer is that when the Rays make moves, the players probably trust they will still have a good ball club next year but are disappointed to lose a friend. When the Orioles make moves, everyone knows it's only going to get worse.

In other words, if they trust the organization, they probably care less.
 

jon abbey

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I think specifically with the Rays, they know on some level that everyone gets moved if they don't sign a way too cheap extension. So Snell gets upset for a minute but everyone on Tampa knows the deal there, the same thing happens over and over and over.
 

chawson

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The frustration may be a bit more acute for Snell, who gave up one year of free agency — his age 30 season — when he signed an extension. I imagine the team treated him to statements of their “commitment to win,” etc.

To be fair, they’re not not trying to win, but the roster-churn approach suggests it’s a secondary goal.
 

jon abbey

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I mean, they missed the alltime team record in wins by 1 last year (96, the record is 97 in 2008) and that was with Glasnow and Snell only making 35 starts combined. Franco and Edwards could be the best middle infield duo in the league 3-4 years from now, the TB churning system actually fits really well in today's game, for better (the team) and worse (the players).
 

Sad Sam Jones

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I do get the impression relief pitchers hate playing for Tampa because of their practice of expanding the bullpen by shuttling everyone with options back and forth to AAA. When Hunter Wood was traded last year he said he was thrilled to be going to a team where coming in and doing his job wouldn't get him sent to AAA the next day. I doubt he was alone in that sentiment… but again, these are guys still in their option years, making relative peanuts, so they don't have much choice in who they pitch for and pitching badly certainly isn't going to help their careers.
 

VORP Speed

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I mean, they missed the alltime team record in wins by 1 last year (96, the record is 97 in 2008) and that was with Glasnow and Snell only making 35 starts combined. Franco and Edwards could be the best middle infield duo in the league 3-4 years from now, the TB churning system actually fits really well in today's game, for better (the team) and worse (the players).
Franco and Lowe will be the middle infield duo, with Edwards in CF.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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I mean, they missed the alltime team record in wins by 1 last year (96, the record is 97 in 2008) and that was with Glasnow and Snell only making 35 starts combined. Franco and Edwards could be the best middle infield duo in the league 3-4 years from now, the TB churning system actually fits really well in today's game, for better (the team) and worse (the players).
They probably will be, but I doubt that Snell will be around to see it.

And that's sorta my point, if everyone on the team is fungible, then eventually you come to the realization that you are too. I don't think that would be a good feeling. Because while I think that all players understand that baseball is a business, I think that many of them see themselves as an exception that way of thinking. The Rays are pretty blatant in their moves to let all players know that they could be gone at a moment. And that probably doesn't sit too well.

So I guess the logic question is what do the Rays players do? Ultimately nothing, because they really can't. But like FFA story about Hunter Wood, I doubt that any of them have any real fond memories about playing on a winning team.
 

jon abbey

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Jordan Lyles signs for 2/16 with TEX, he was good down the stretch for the Brewers.