2019-20 Yankees Offseason Discussion

[jon abbey]

Arenado is obviously incredible but he is a complicated trade case and even more so for NY, I will take a shot at it. He is possibly the best non-Trout position player in the game (strong arguments made before last season here: https://tht.fangraphs.com/the-epistemology-of-hitting-or-what-constitutes-a-fact-about-nolan-arenado/), and he is signed through 2026 at a $32.5 AAV and a bit more in actual money. Just for contrast, NY currently has Urshela controlled through 2023 at maybe $8-10M AAV tops. Both are 28 and born in 1991, Urshela is six months younger.

Also NY isn't a good match:

"In order to part with Arenado, the Rockies likely need to obtain a controllable first baseman or center fielder."

https://www.mlb.com/news/nolan-arenado-trade-possibility-rising
I think that one of the teams that doesn't get Donaldson (ATL/WAS/MIN) is the favorites for pulling off an Arenado deal, ATL especially. NY I guess could offer Andujar and Clint Frazier (Andujar has started trying 1B this winter, Clint is actually better in CF than in RF although that is the lowest possible bar), plus a pitching prospect or two and take on the full contract, but I'm not sure that makes sense from either side. Also I am still hoping for the Lindor/Urshela BFFs reunion in the Bronx by 2022 if not sooner, but that requires Gio to hold his job until then.

View: https://www.instagram.com/p/B5JUf3mJVGU/

 

[jon abbey]

Now that it seems like the Hader talk is cooled down, one interesting factor to mention is that it's possible that some of his effectiveness comes from an inability of the hitter to pick the ball up quickly with his long hair as a backdrop. I watched a video story or two discussing this and couldn't decide if I thought it was actually a major factor or not, but the point is that if he was traded to NY, because of their idiotic and antiquated long hair/facial hair rules, he would presumably have to cut his hair and he'd lose this potential advantage.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

Probably the oddest analysis you might ever see on whether a player will be successful somewhere!

 

[jon abbey]

Probably the oddest analysis you might ever see on whether a player will be successful somewhere!

Heh, but relevant! I did wait to bring it up, but here are Pedro and Harold Reynolds talking about it last summer on MLBN:

View: https://twitter.com/mlbnetwork/status/1137782662540775425?lang=en

 

[TheDivision]

Now that it seems like the Hader talk is cooled down

Ok so the team is back to square one with the 40 man roster dilemma and of course the Andujar, who is clearly blocked by Gio, and Frazier dilemma. As it stands, Gio is the 3B, correct? So if Andujar only gets DH ABs his value may diminish if he’s viewed solely as a DH. It’s a nice dilemma for the team to have but some resolution is needed regarding these two players.

 

[jon abbey]

Yeah, they have way too many pitchers on the 40 man still also, something will happen. The Hedges/Margot deal could work too, not that I've ever seen that actually rumored by anyone but me.

 

[jon abbey]

I was going to say that NY needs some AAA OF depth especially if they move Clint Frazier, and when I checked rosterresource, I see that they just signed Rosell Herrera to a minor league deal, a 27 year old Dominican who was a top 100 prospect in 2014 and who homered off David Robertson in July 2018 when he played for KC. Check out this 2018 factoid:

"Nonetheless, he contributed better than replacement-level production thanks to his versatility. Herrera logged innings at every position sans catcher, first base, and shortstop. He generated 10 Defensive Runs Saved per Fangraphs, demonstrating real aptitude for several different assignments, rather than simply being a position-filler."

That was in only 75 games played, that is amazing.

MLBTR says:

"Finally, the Yankees brought aboard utilityman Rosell Herrera. Herrera logged fair MLB time with the Reds, Royals and Marlins the past two seasons. His resultant .225/.286/.316 slash (63 wRC+) won’t turn any heads, but Herrera has an 82nd percentile sprint speed, per Statcast, and has logged time at six different positions (short, second, third, and all three outfield spots) as a big leaguer."

 

[jon abbey]

Haha, here is a 2014 Rockies prospect list where Herrera is their #4 prospect as their low A SS and Trevor Story is their #8 prospect as their SS one level higher. From the Story writeup:

"The Career Outlook: The 2014 season will be an important one in Story’s development. He has fellow shortstop prospect Rosell Herrera to contend with and one of them may be destined for third base, which will no doubt put even more pressure of the offensive (and power) development."

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2014-top-10-prospects-colorado-rockies/

 

[jon abbey]

Here is a game from June 2018 where Herrera played RF for KC against the Astros...

0-0 in the 8th, he stole a HR from Bregman and then belted a RBI triple to dead center off Ken Giles in the 9th, KC won 1-0.

View: https://youtu.be/ZJbGMepoiEs


Also he is a switch-hitter.

 

[jon abbey]

Also if you think I might be making too big of a deal about some of NY's minor league position player signings, it's worth looking back at who NY signed last offseason along similar lines, not just Urshela (traded for in August 2018 and then re-signed after the season) but also two others they couldn't hold onto all winter, Hanser Alberto who then had a 3.1 bWAR for the Orioles and Tim Locastro had 0.9 bWAR in just 212 ABs for ARI.

So the guys in this category that NY has signed so far this winter are Granite and Herrera, again talented 26-27 year olds who NY thinks they can help break through, and if they do, they have another cost-controlled guy for 5-6 years (please fix this system). Hicks and Didi were in the category before this, NY has not done well drafting for a long time (Judge excepted) but they make up for it with international signings, countless lopsided trades, and fringe acquisitions like this.

So Granite and Herrera so far this winter, both are even longshot Opening Day 25 man possibilities as of now, I think, but more ideally depth in AAA and waiting for their next chance. This I think is the range of players NY's new upgraded developmental personnel should most focus on, NY is thin on upper level position player prospects, not that it matters much when you unearth Voit and Urshela and Tauchman within a year. NY has so much top-tier teenage position player talent in the pipeline but it often doesn't develop as hoped, hopefully these developmental guys will start to push some of it up a bit faster, the Martian will need a supporting cast. Also teach Kyle Holder to hit better, that dude is a big leaguer.

I posted this already (sorry) but Alex Chamberlain of Fangraphs was the guy who had been championing Tauchman from the rooftops for a while before NY got him, he also loves Granite, this is from March 2019.

=========================================

Zack Granite, TEX OF (MLB)

Granite, designated for assignment by the Twins, an organization loaded with toolsy (but not particularly contact-oriented) outfielders, latched onto the Rangers’ organization. In the minors, he was a perpetual threat to walk as often as he struck out. Since the start of 2016, he has compiled a tidy 2.7% swinging strike rate (SwStr%); in his 107-plate appearance debut last year, he whittled it down to 1.9% (while, yes, walking more than he struck out). Perhaps more importantly, he stole 56 bases as recently as 2016 and has still shown the aptitude to steal double-digit bases when presented the opportunity. Granite lacks the daylight in Arlington to make a splash, but it’s not like the Rangers scooped him up for no reason, either.

(I brazenly told Paul I’d be willing to bet Granite has a better career than Byron Buxton, if you need a measure of stupidity for my enthusiasm.)

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/fantasy-fringe-five-a-reintroduction/

 

[jon abbey]

Jose Iglesias (1/3 to BAL) and Daniel Hudson (2/11 back to WAS) are off the board, which probably means NY is done with the FA market this winter.

 

[RedOctober3829]

View: https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1215021845948305412

 

[jon abbey]

NY doesn't have nearly the recent track record with scrap heap pitchers as they do with scrap heap hitters, although it would be nice to get David Hale back on a minor league deal for the third straight year. Tropeano is still 29 and a Long Island boy, FWIW.

 

[jon abbey]

Tropeano somehow has an option left according to Roster Resource despite debuting in 2014, so maybe they’re hoping he can be a long guy on the Scranton shuttle, although he’s always been a SP in the majors.

 

[EvilEmpire]

NY doesn't have nearly the recent track record with scrap heap pitchers as they do with scrap heap hitters, although it would be nice to get David Hale back on a minor league deal for the third straight year. Tropeano is still 29 and a Long Island boy, FWIW.

I would love to hear the discussions going on now between the scouts and the new pitching coaching staff as far as any new areas of emphasis and things they're looking at/looking for. I'm curious (and hopeful!) if we'll see some better results with scrap heap pitching. New eyes, new ideas.

Can't wait for the season to start.

 

[Wingack]

View: https://twitter.com/yankeeswfan/status/1215326181790289920?s=21

 

[jon abbey]

If people remember when NY signed LeMahieu around this time last year, there was discussion about how hitting in COL hurt their hitters quite a bit on the road. Iannetta is the primary exhibit here, interesting to see his career splits through this lens (he only had 160 ABs in 2019 but the splits were similar):

 

[Wingack]

He is also pretty good behind the place if I recall correctly.

 

[terrynever]

He is also pretty good behind the place if I recall correctly.

Chris is very solid behind the plate. He’s a Rhode Island native, from North Providence, played high school and legion ball in Pawtucket. And now he is 37 years old. Where does the time go?

 

[jon abbey]

MLBTR says:

"Iannetta has improved his framing in recent years and has drawn overall positive marks with his glove in three of the past five seasons, but the 2019 campaign saw those framing numbers dip as he also struggled to control the running game (17 percent caught-stealing rate)."

 

[jon abbey]

Gardner finally officially added a month after signing, Stephen Tarpley DFAd.

 

[terrynever]

Gardner finally officially added a month after signing, Stephen Tarpley DFAd.

Somebody will sign Tarpley. He could be the next Oliver Perez.

 

[jon abbey]

The new three batter rule isn’t helping either of those guys, both were awful against righties last year. Also worth noting that Tarpley can still be traded the next week and likely will be.

 

[terrynever]

The new three batter rule isn’t helping either of those guys, both were awful against righties last year. Also worth noting that Tarpley can still be traded the next week and likely will be.

Not sure about a trade in the dead of winter unless a team really likes Tarpley. They can just wait 10 days.

 

[TheDivision]

There were simply too many RP, and it’s preferable to let these guys go instead of players with upside. Not sure how Tarpley will fare but we’ll always remember his appearance against CLE in which he was badly needed and dominated. So to date, Adams, Hale and now Tarpley have been let go.

 

[jon abbey]

Hale elected FA in October after the last time NY tried to stash him in AAA, add Cortes Jr. to your list also. All of those are good moves IMO, although again I wouldn't mind getting Hale back on another minor league deal if possible.

Tarpley only faced 120 batters for NY last year but he was truly horrible against righties:

vs LHH: .589 OPS allowed
vs RHH: 1.237 OPS allowed

NY's strategy here is becoming a bit more clearer to me: If they can have enough system depth with position players and relievers not on the 40 man, then they can keep the high-ceiling prospect SPs on the 40 man who likely won't be able to contribute this year, especially once spring training starts and they can put guys on the IL (Hicks will go on the first day it is allowed). Currently they have four young SPs unlikely to contribute this year (Gil, Medina, Yajure, probably Abreu) and that is even counting Deivi and Nick Nelson as guys who can help this year if needed. They now have 14 SPs on the 40 man including those six and only 10 relievers.

 

[luckiestman]

Damn. Cressey is a name I recognize from back in the day when he was starting up. I used to email him questions and he’d give good advice. I know a bunch of lifters that trained with him or learned to coach under him. He’s a good dude and was one of the early adopters of mobility work.

Was this dude a T nation poster? I know him from somewhere.

 

[Marciano490]

Was this dude a T nation poster? I know him from somewhere.

I believe he wrote articles for them back in the day, before they basically became a shill for super overpriced supplements.

Oh, actually he was still there as of last year.

https://www.t-nation.com/all-articles/authors/eric-cressey

 

[jon abbey]

Really hoping this dude can keep our musclebound giants on the field this year, Stanton and Judge and Sanchez.

 

[Marciano490]

Really hoping this dude can keep our musclebound giants on the field this year, Stanton and Judge and Sanchez.

Yeah, I’m rereading his old shoulder maintenance articles tonight. Lots of good stuff there.

 

[jon abbey]

It won't let me cut and paste text from my phone, but Buster Olney ranks NY as the best team in MLB currently today, and says "On paper, the Yankees are as complete a team as baseball has seen in the last couple of decades." (!!!)

Interestingly, he ranks TB 3rd in MLB (behind LAD, ahead of HOU), he has BOS 11th.

 

[VORP Speed]

It won't let me cut and paste text from my phone, but Buster Olney ranks NY as the best team in MLB currently today, and says "On paper, the Yankees are as complete a team as baseball has seen in the last couple of decades." (!!!)

Interestingly, he ranks TB 3rd in MLB (behind LAD, ahead of HOU), he has BOS 11th.

Clearly headed towards NY-TB ALCS

 

[jon abbey]

Clearly headed towards NY-TB ALCS

Which can only happen if the AL East winner isn't the #1 seed, due to the dumb seeding system.

 

[VORP Speed]

Which can only happen if the AL East winner isn't the #1 seed, due to the dumb seeding system.

White Sox win 105, Rays 104, Yanks 103. Problem solved.

 

[SemperFidelisSox]

It’s definitely been a great offseason for NY. The two teams that have knocked them out of the playoffs the last three years are going through major turmoil due to the sign stealing investigations. Houston has already lost their manager and GM, and the Red Sox may be next. And you can’t discount the impact loss of draft picks have as well on their abilities to compete with NY in the coming years.

 

[jon abbey]

Buried in the Astros news today, it seems that NY has hired CC Sabathia as an assistant to Cashman, maybe this is Beltran's old job or something similar?

"CC Sabathia is going to be a special adviser to Yankees GM Brian Cashman, The Post has learned.

The role is expected to be one of significance with Sabathia wanting to have a big front-office presence in his post-playing career.

“I will take as much CC as I can get,” Cashman told The Post.

Cashman added that he and Sabathia have had several conversations about his role this winter. The GM expects Sabathia to work at the major league and minor league levels."

 

[jon abbey]

It’s definitely been a great offseason for NY. The two teams that have knocked them out of the playoffs the last three years are going through major turmoil due to the sign stealing investigations. Houston has already lost their manager and GM, and the Red Sox may be next. And you can’t discount the impact loss of draft picks have as well on their abilities to compete with NY in the coming years.

Obviously plenty of truth here, but again I'd like to try to puncture the mild myth that drafting is the only way to build a team with youth.

There are three general ways to add pre-arb talent, the Yankees have been pretty terrible at drafting (Judge as a giant exception, in every way) but really really good at the other two, which are international signings (they were voted #1 currently in MLB this week in a mlb.com poll of team executives, https://www.mlb.com/news/prospect-and-farm-system-survey) and acquiring guys who have yet to break out (Voit, Urshela, Tauchman in the last year, Didi and Hicks before that). Also getting the most out of your own players up and down the system is a major focus in MLB these days, the book The MVP Machine gets into this and all of NY's offseason coaching hires are geared in this direction.

My point being that taking away draft picks hurts, but it's far from a death blow, especially with savvy GMs like Chaim and whoever the Astros promote, presumably Pete Putila.

 

[bquine]

As the Red Sox and Astros have somewhat limited financial flexibility in the near term this might not work for them, but I'm surprised more teams don't try sign more high ceiling relievers with the sole intent of short-swing flipping them for pre-arb talent. It's typically not that much of an investment in either time or money so the risk is fairly low, yet they're highly fungible assets at the All-Star Break if they show even a half season of good work. Ever since Cashman pulled off something similar with Miller and Chapman I'm surprised more teams haven't tried to emulate that particular feat.

Also somewhat dependent on a team's finances, but with the ability to trade for Competitive Balance picks a team can definitely shore up their draft position. Teams with Competitive Balance picks are pretty much by definition looking for salary relief and while the rules explicitly state that the picks can't be traded for cash, there are of course many ways around this such as picking up bad contracts. That's basically what the Padres did in the Phil Hughes trade, acquiring the #74 pick from the Twins in exchange for $7.25 million. (They also gave up a non-prospect and acquired Hughes whom they DFA'd shortly after.)

 

[jon abbey]

As the Red Sox and Astros have somewhat limited financial flexibility in the near term this might not work for them, but I'm surprised more teams don't try sign more high ceiling relievers with the sole intent of short-swing flipping them for pre-arb talent. It's typically not that much of an investment in either time or money so the risk is fairly low, yet they're highly fungible assets at the All-Star Break if they show even a half season of good work. Ever since Cashman pulled off something similar with Miller and Chapman I'm surprised more teams haven't tried to emulate that particular feat.

Who, though? People love to reference the Miller/Chapman trades but that was a perfect storm, two teams trying to win their first title in many decades who both needed the same thing, and NY had maybe the best two guys in the game to deal.

Also a very large percentage of top FA reliever deals end up being duds, MLBTR had a list last year of the 2018-2019 offseason ones and almost all of them were very bad signings except for Britton/Ottavino (and even Ottavino hit a wall late in the year).

 

[bquine]

Yeah, I probably shouldn't have even mentioned Miller/Chapman because that was a bit of a perfect storm. I'm thinking less of investing in relievers with a "name" and flipping those (though that can work, too), but more those who are kind of lottery tickets. Assuming you're in the right part of your financial and projected contention cycle, pick four guys with a plus fastball for 1.5 innings and an average secondary offering that you can sign for $2-4m/year; isn't one of them going to have a decent half season purely by SSS luck (even BABIP aside)? IMO, teams get irrationally hungry for bullpen help at the trade deadline. You might be able to flip one of those guys for an actual 50+. Is this strategy cost efficient? Maybe not. But it's another tool in the box.

 

[jon abbey]

Yeah, I probably shouldn't have even mentioned Miller/Chapman because that was a bit of a perfect storm. I'm thinking less of investing in relievers with a "name" and flipping those (though that can work, too), but more those who are kind of lottery tickets. Assuming you're in the right part of your financial and projected contention cycle, pick four guys with a plus fastball for 1.5 innings and an average secondary offering that you can sign for $2-4m/year; isn't one of them going to have a decent half season purely by SSS luck (even BABIP aside)? IMO, teams get irrationally hungry for bullpen help at the trade deadline. You might be able to flip one of those guys for an actual 50+. Is this strategy cost efficient? Maybe not. But it's another tool in the box.

Hmm, not sure who you have in mind, but looking at the list of FA reliever signings this winter, you are talking about guys like Hector Rondon, Tyler Clippard, Darren O'Day, Brad Brach. I guess you could sign all four and hope that one dominates the first half of the season, but the domination part seems unlikely to me even with four possibilities, and even if they did, I don't think anyone is giving you too much for them at the deadline. The Nats traded for Daniel Hudson at the deadline last year, who ended up being the closer on their title team, and they only gave up their #27 prospect Kyle Johnston who is now TOR's #29 prospect, hardly worth all of this hassle IMO.

Can you point to any rental reliever who was signed and then flipped like this? TB gave up a very good prospect for Nick Anderson at last year's deadline, but that's in large part because he was prearb and controllable long-term.

 

[jon abbey]

Gonna put this here as opposed to any of the more directly related threads, this writer is generally pretty accurate:

"Regarding video of Cora talking about Beltran helping Yankees in '19.

MLB sources reaffirm this AM they're not investigating NYY. Video could easily be talking pitch tipping/legal sign stealing.

NYY have adamantly denied CB helped them do anything illegal. League corroborates"

View: https://twitter.com/martinonyc/status/1217488287914516486

 

[jon abbey]

NY traded Stephen Tarpley to the Marlins for an intriguing prospect who has had trouble delivering results the last couple of seasons, 22 year old 3B James Nelson. Fangraphs rated him as a 45 in March 2018 and said:

"Nelson has got a bit of a flat-planed swing, but the ball really jumps off his bat and he arrived to camp this spring looking noticeably stronger. He looks like he could mature into an actual five-tool player with a bunch of 50s and 55s. That would make him a good everyday player. If the power and defense tick up to 60s, he’ll turn into more than that. He has a chance to break out in 2018."

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-29-prospects-miami-marlins/
BA had him as MIA's #19 prospect going into 2019 (just behind Zac Gallen!) and say he has above average power, is an above average runner, and 'defensively, Nelson has all the tools necessary, including an above average arm, to be an above average third baseman.' (no link because I typed this in from a book).

 

[jon abbey]

Also he was a Yankees fan growing up, I'm slightly irrationally excited about this kid.

https://www.prospects1500.com/nl-east/marlins/james-nelson/

 

[jon abbey]

Dan Szymbroski's ZiPS writeup on NY goes live on Fangraphs tomorrow, here is a drool-worthy preview.

View: https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/status/1217572952771907584

 

[bquine]

Hmm, not sure who you have in mind, but looking at the list of FA reliever signings this winter, you are talking about guys like Hector Rondon, Tyler Clippard, Darren O'Day, Brad Brach. I guess you could sign all four and hope that one dominates the first half of the season, but the domination part seems unlikely to me even with four possibilities, and even if they did, I don't think anyone is giving you too much for them at the deadline. The Nats traded for Daniel Hudson at the deadline last year, who ended up being the closer on their title team, and they only gave up their #27 prospect Kyle Johnston who is now TOR's #29 prospect, hardly worth all of this hassle IMO.

Can you point to any rental reliever who was signed and then flipped like this? TB gave up a very good prospect for Nick Anderson at last year's deadline, but that's in large part because he was prearb and controllable long-term.

Pomeranz would maybe be a recent example? He got flipped for a 45 FV. Not quite the same thing, but Shane Green and Kolarek were kind of similar situations: short term performance for future value. I may be reaching here.

 

[jon abbey]

Pomeranz would be a good call except that he has mostly been a SP and was a SP all last season until two weeks before he was traded to MIL (who turned him into a great reliever who somehow got a four year deal this winter). What you're suggesting isn't impossible but I think it's really really hard, especially with a pretty full bullpen already.

 

[jon abbey]

Mike Ford had some very impressive numbers and some very surprising splits in his 163 MLB PAs last year. First of all, comparing his NY numbers so far to Voit's:

Voit, 2018-2019: 658 PAs, 35 HRs, .901 OPS
Ford, 2019: 163 PAs, 12 HRs, .909 OPS

That's a little unfair as Voit was higher before trying to play through a sports hernia down the stretch, but Ford also had an International League-leading 1.007 OPS in 350 ABs in between callups.

So Voit should still be the starter, but I would definitely have Ford on the roster also for 1B and DH ABs. His splits last year are fascinating as he is a lefty pull hitter, so you would guess he hit most of his HRs of RHP to the short RF at home, a la Didi or Gardner, but he couldn't have been farther away from that.

Home: 64 PAs, 2 HRs, .659 OPS
Road: 99 PAs, 10 HRs, 1.078 OPS

RHP: 127 PAs, .766 OPS
LHP: 36 PAs, 7 HRs in just 33 ABs, 1.389 OPS, best against LHP of anyone in MLB

 

[Murderer's Crow]

My wife recently got a new gig working with Tom Ford beauty and I keep mistakenly telling people that she works for Mike Ford.

 

[jon abbey]

If you're NY, do you offer Stanton, Urshela and a pitching prospect (Gil or Deivi or Schmidt) for Arenado? Then maybe you sign Maybin back as the extra OF until Hicks is back:

LeMahieu 2B
Judge RF
Arenado 3B
Torres SS
Voit 1B
Andujar DH
Sanchez C
Gardner CF
Tauchman LF

bench: Ford, Higashioka or Iannetta, Wade or Estrada, Maybin or Frazier (Hicks back midseason)

Stanton and Arenado both with full no-trade clauses and so both would have to approve, I doubt Stanton would but who knows.