2019-20 Yankees Offseason Discussion

EvilEmpire

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Yeah, I don't see Stanton waiving his NTC to go to Colorado either. Maybe he could be moved elsewhere.

A pupu platter that includes Gio, Happ, Frazier and prospects won't get it done, but a man can dream.
 

Wingack

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I hear ya I just think his bat could be insane in Colorado. He is an XBH hit machine and there is a lot of space out there.

They just need to find a place to hide him.
 

TheDivision

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If you're NY, do you offer Stanton, Urshela and a pitching prospect (Gil or Deivi or Schmidt) for Arenado? Then maybe you sign Maybin back as the extra OF until Hicks is back:

LeMahieu 2B
Judge RF
Arenado 3B
Torres SS
Voit 1B
Andujar DH
Sanchez C
Gardner CF
Tauchman LF

bench: Ford, Higashioka or Iannetta, Wade or Estrada, Maybin or Frazier (Hicks back midseason)

Stanton and Arenado both with full no-trade clauses and so both would have to approve, I doubt Stanton would but who knows.
I'd do that trade, and COL would be getting a lot of value in return. However, aside from Stanton’s NTC that you and EE mentioned there’s also the issue of Stanton’s money. My understanding is that NY will owe 9/214 from 2020 -2028 and this is after the Marlins discount and about AAV 23.7 compared to Arenado’s 32.5. Maybe if NY takes on a bit of that, maybe 3.7 million, the Rockies would be interested.
 

jon abbey

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I'm way behind watching the Hot Stove YES shows (even as someone absolutely obsessed for every tidbit of Yankee news, I find them mostly pretty dull), but on the show tonight, Cashman said that Happ would start the season as the 5th starter. Obviously this could change, it will probably be something of a showcase early in the season since NY will have German and Montgomery and King and Schmidt and Garcia as other options who don't cost $17M, but still noteworthy, enough so that MLBTR did an item on it just now.

 

TheDivision

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Andujar to learn first base and left field.

I was going to post a bit more positively but then pictured the throw that crow216 described from left to home but ends up on first. So, if playing left is not a possibility and playing 1B is then that’s too many first basemen on the team. Yeah, and the root of the problem remains. Unless, Voit is traded.
 

jon abbey

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Strange that Andujar and Frazier and Happ are all still on the team as none are really needed.
 

TheDivision

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Strange that Andujar and Frazier and Happ are all still on the team as none are really needed.
Yes it is. So with Happ taking the 5 spot in the rotation, what will happen with Montgomery?

The season before he was injured he had a 2.9 bWAR, a 4.07 FIP and was 6th overall in ROY race.
 

jon abbey

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It's not the worst thing for him to start in AAA, he basically won't have pitched almost at all in MLB for two full seasons (hurt in early 2018 and back for just a bit at the end of last season). Happ isn't going to stay in the rotation all year even if he stays on the team, because there's no way they're going to let his 2021 $17M option vest unless 1) he is awesome and/or 2) they are desperate.
 

TheDivision

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It's not the worst thing for him to start in AAA, he basically won't have pitched almost at all in MLB for two full seasons (hurt in early 2018 and back for just a bit at the end of last season). Happ isn't going to stay in the rotation all year even if he stays on the team, because there's no way they're going to let his 2021 $17M option vest unless 1) he is awesome and/or 2) they are desperate.
That sounds like a good plan. A bit of anxiousness regarding what they’re going to do with all the talent. And quite frankly, the depth that the team has is overwhelming.
 

EvilEmpire

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I used to worry a little about having too deep of a depth chart, and then last season happened. Totally cured me.
 

jon abbey

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Catching up on the YES Hot Stove shows, and the most recent one had Jack Curry and John Flaherty mocking the idea of Miguel Andujar starting the year in AAA.

Obviously it depends somewhat on how he looks in the spring and who is healthy and if there are trades before then, but two massive reasons that there’s a good chance he’ll start in AAA if he isn’t traded: 1) if he stays down for about a month, NY gets the extra year of control back that they gave up when promoting him in April 2018 and 2) he needs game experience at 1B and LF and he needs regular ABs.
 

jon abbey

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If COL moves Arenado before spring training, there aren't many possible destinations given the young talent needed for COL to sell it to their fans plus the ability to take on his big deal plus COL's wanting to get him out of the the division if not the league (ruling out the Dodgers). I think the three main bidders would be/are STL, TEX, and NYY. I'm not sure how much money STL can take on and TEX doesn't have a lot of young talent to move, so I could see the match with the Yankees, who have a pretty good replacement to return as part of the package in Urshela, six months younger than Arenado, still pre-arb, and a 3.4 bWAR last year.
 

ThePrideofShiner

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Man, I hadn't even thought about trading Urshela. I wonder if people think he is just a flash in the pan or what.
 

crow216

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I'd trade high on Urshela but would also love to keep him as a backup INF in a situation where we trade Andujar and acquire Nolan.
 

BaseballJones

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Arenado's home/road splits (career):

Home: .324/.380/.615/.995
Road: .265/.323/.476/.799

Of course, if the Yankees trade for him, he'll put up a slash line of .330/.400/.630/1.030.
 

jon abbey

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I'd trade high on Urshela but would also love to keep him as a backup INF in a situation where we trade Andujar and acquire Nolan.
But both he and Arenado only play third. If you move Andujar and Urshela for Arenado, you have an infield of Voit/DJ/Gleyber/Arenado, with Ford and Wade or Estrada as backups. You need someone who can play backup SS on the roster, which is Wade or Estrada as of now.
 

Wingack

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Was listening to a fantasy podcast this morning and they were saying Urshela was just about an average 3B last year. We just think he was spectacular because Andujar is so terrible.

Might be the time to sell high.
 

jon abbey

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The guy I think is really being slept on is Mike Ford, Voit a bit too. If the DH logjam is thinned out somewhat, that means more ABs for both Voit and Ford, which I think is a good thing.
 

EvilEmpire

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Was listening to a fantasy podcast this morning and they were saying Urshela was just about an average 3B last year. We just think he was spectacular because Andujar is so terrible.

Might be the time to sell high.
Maybe not exciting from a fantasy perspective, but why would they care about his awesome defense?
 

TheDivision

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We kept reassuring ourselves that Gio was real throughout last season. Comparing his stats to the two years he played in CLE, his doubles and HRs increased, and his batting avg improved by about .90 points. The walk and SO rate more or less remained the same. I don’t know how to exactly interpret these numbers but depending on the ball they’ll use in this season, his HRs/2B might go a bit down. Overall, I also think he’s real, well hoping so anyway.
 

EvilEmpire

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Being a great defender impacts playing time. Being a bad defender limits at bats, as we may see with Andujar.
Eh. I get that, but it is still evaluating Gio almost entirely through an offensive lens. We know he is a good defender. He's more valuable to a baseball team trying to win games than he is to a fantasy league team. Citing a fantasy podcast as a reason to consider selling high seems inapt.
 

Wingack

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Eh. I get that, but it is still evaluating Gio almost entirely through an offensive lens. We know he is a good defender. He's more valuable to a baseball team trying to win games than he is to a fantasy league team. Citing a fantasy podcast as a reason to consider selling high seems inapt.
That's not what I was trying to do.

They were just discussing his defensive stats last year, and I was surprised to hear that he was just about average, while I thought he was much better than he actually was. Now I know other teams probably know that too, but if some teams perceive him to be elite defensively, then selling him now might be wise.
 

EvilEmpire

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They were just discussing his defensive stats last year, and I was surprised to hear that he was just about average, while I thought he was much better than he actually was.
Gotcha. I interpreted "average 3B last year" to mean "average fantasy 3B" given that it was a fantasy podcast. Didn't realize they were specifically talking about his defense at 3B.

Sorry I misunderstood.
 

jon abbey

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Putting all that aside, I really don't see how the money is a fit for the Yankees.
Agreed that it's a bit tricky but if NY has already decided/accepted that they will be over $248M this year (I don't know if this is the case), then Arenado obviously doesn't affect that. Then after this season, Tanaka, Happ if he is still here, Paxton, Ellsbury, probably Gardner and possibly LeMahieu all drop off the books. That is something like $97M off the books.

If the general plan is 1) pay position players now, 2) fill upcoming rotation holes with internal prospects and 3) replace position players in 5-6 years with all of the internal teenage talent they have now, it makes more sense but it is definitely tricky.

Also the CBA expires after 2021, and that could change things quite a bit.
 

jon abbey

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Arenado's home/road splits (career):

Home: .324/.380/.615/.995
Road: .265/.323/.476/.799

Of course, if the Yankees trade for him, he'll put up a slash line of .330/.400/.630/1.030.
There has been a lot of analysis of this topic in the last few years, COL home/road splits, and what appears to be the case is that while COL hitters are helped at home, they are hurt even more on the road. DJ LeMahieu's splits over 7 years in COL:

• Home: .330/.387/.448, .835 OPS, .376 BABIP
• Away: .264/.311/.362, .673 OPS, .307 BABIP

I have posted this before, but since Ianetta has moved around so much, I think it is very illuminating.

 

jon abbey

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This article from a year ago uses a new stat, DRC+ (deserved runs created plus) and concludes that Arenado was the second best player in all of MLB between 2012-2018, behind only Trout, and not very far behind him.


His NL WARP rank was 5th in 2014, 2nd in 2015, 1st in 2016, 4th in 2017 and 1st again in 2018. That seems solid.
 

crow216

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I don't view the Betts/Price trade as positives for the Yankees. Both the Twins and Dodgers get better. The Yankees will likely have to face both in the postseason.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, a lot of instant superficial analysis there, plus NY won't get to bat against Price anymore, which makes Gary Sanchez and the rest of them sad pandas. BOS is in worse position for this year without Mookie/Price but added two young talented players going forward.
 

jon abbey

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I don't view the Betts/Price trade as positives for the Yankees. Both the Twins and Dodgers get better. The Yankees will likely have to face both in the postseason.
I mean, I can't think of a WS matchup I'd rather see more than Price vs. NY, no matter who he is playing for. They own him.