2019-2020 Celtics Regular Season Thread

lovegtm

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The Fultz swing and miss is the one that hurts.

Harris is ok but you are right about Horford. His current skill set would be great on a real contender but not on this roster. Its old world eye test stuff but he just hasn't looked comfortable in that offense.

And yes I wonder how he would play with this Cs team even if dodging that contract is likely a blessing. I think even 33 year old Horford would be great for this Boston team.
34-36 Al Horford, however, would completely break the team’s salary structure while also being extremely cooked. The bullet dodged there was the size of a cannonball.
 

Euclis20

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The Fultz swing and miss is the one that hurts.

Harris is ok but you are right about Horford. His current skill set would be great on a real contender but not on this roster. Its old world eye test stuff but he just hasn't looked comfortable in that offense.

And yes I wonder how he would play with this Cs team even if dodging that contract is likely a blessing. I think even 33 year old Horford would be great for this Boston team.
Not just the eye test, his TS% is the lowest of his career while his usage rate is his lowest in over a decade. That's not a great combination.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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34-36 Al Horford, however, would completely break the team’s salary structure while also being extremely cooked. The bullet dodged there was the size of a cannonball.
Perhaps but while Euclis20 is right about Horford's TS percentage his overall decline isn't as bad as you might think. Throwing out last year's quietly excellent season, he is in line with a lot of his career averages. He literally is Average Al.

However, as many here have noted, he isn't a great fit on that roster. I know its unpopular but I could see Horford aging gracefully for the tail of his contract in the right system.
 

Euclis20

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Perhaps but while Euclis20 is right about Horford's TS percentage his overall decline isn't as bad as you might think. Throwing out last year's quietly excellent season, he is in line with a lot of his career averages. He literally is Average Al.

However, as many here have noted, he isn't a great fit on that roster. I know its unpopular but I could see Horford aging gracefully for the tail of his contract in the right system.
I don't disagree but I think the right system is (at the very least) one in which he plays center. If he needs to play alongside another big man, I'm not sure things will get any better than they are now.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I don't disagree but I think the right system is (at the very least) one in which he plays center. If he needs to play alongside another big man, I'm not sure things will get any better than they are now.
Agreed if center is in a small ball system. I also agree that he is in decline and the next two years could definitely be painful for all involved.

I understand that it was impossible for Boston to keep him but he was such an ideal fit that I could see Stevens manage him into the sunset while maximizing his strengths in an alternate scenario. His playmaking ability is still very good and I think his PnR decline is a function of the system - its really a state if basketball limbo - that he is in.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I wonder if Horford wishes he had taken a shorter/lighter contract from the Celtics at this point. He has to know it's a bad fit in Philly and everything I have seen from him suggests he values winning and being a contributor such that it will frustrate him...though I also doubt we hear it from him.

If he was a 20ish minute a game guy for Boston he'd be quite valuable, with the minutes going up a bit in the right matchup and down in others. Roughly stated, the 7th man in the rotation many nights, and a starter (with a fairly even minutes split) in others.
 

lovegtm

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I wonder if Horford wishes he had taken a shorter/lighter contract from the Celtics at this point. He has to know it's a bad fit in Philly and everything I have seen from him suggests he values winning and being a contributor such that it will frustrate him...though I also doubt we hear it from him.

If he was a 20ish minute a game guy for Boston he'd be quite valuable, with the minutes going up a bit in the right matchup and down in others. Roughly stated, the 7th man in the rotation many nights, and a starter (with a fairly even minutes split) in others.
I'm sure he wishes he could have a better situation, but the paycut he would have had to take to make that make sense is a non-starter. You're describing about a $10M/year guy.
 

benhogan

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34-36 Al Horford, however, would completely break the team’s salary structure while also being extremely cooked. The bullet dodged there was the size of a cannonball.
Agreed. Love Al, but 34-36-year-old Horford in limited minutes at the 5 at that price? yikes

getting solid production at the 5 on the cheap isn't all that hard in a Brad Stevens system (or the modern-day NBA).

Danny knows it and will continue to exploit this. That's why all the Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson, Capella, Drummond rumors were complete silliness.
 

TripleOT

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Celtics end up with the 6th best record in the league, and the second best point differential, after the Bucks, tied with the Clips, at 6.4. Kyrie and AL were hardly missed in the regular season. This team really came together after the Kyrie-first fuckery last season.

The Cs had three 20 ppg scorers for only the 18th time in league history (credit Sean Grande) They had a player lead the lead in FT percentage, Brad Wanamaker, who now is in good company with Larry Bird, 4 times, Bill Sharman, 7 times, and Larry Siegfried, 2 times. Tacko Fall was 10th in points per minute, (min 6 games played Also from Sean Grande)

The Celtics had better team stat than their opponents in every major category except FTs, FT% and number of fouls. With little salary cap invested in bigs, they managed more total rebounds, defensive rebounds, and offensive rebounds. They even blocked a few more shots.
 

benhogan

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1. Yes, those 5 would play all 192 minutes (maybe more if Brad wants to go super small) in an elimination game.
2. Those 5 don't all average the same minutes. Tatum and Brown would play big minutes and barely leave the floor. Tatum has played 40+mpg during regular-season games numerous times this year. He played 42 mins as a 19yr old rookie in the Game 7. He and Jaylen could easily play 42-44mins in an elimination game.
3. 32yr old Al Horford played 40mins that night and was beat up, so yes 30yr old Kemba and Hayward could easily increase their minutes in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Kemba's knee should be much better after 3 months off (equivalent to an off-season). Hayward played over 37mpg 9x over the last 20 games he played during the regular season.
4. After JB/JT take up 86mins, that leaves 106 minutes for Smart, Kemba, Hayward. That's ~35mins each, which is a complete joke stamina wise for them. They all did that numerous times in the regular season. Heck, what did Kemba play on a bad knee in a meaningless All-Star game? Kemba played over 38minutes over a half dozen times this season. He's not coming out, after never playing a meaningful NBA playoff game in his career, so Brad Wannamaker can get 10 minutes.
5. The subbing for the 5 guys would start 5 minutes into the game, with Smart, which Brad does quite often already. So no acrobatics needed there. and Smart would still get another couple minutes off per half to get to the ~35mpg.

7-man rotations for NBA/college teams (w/ 2 centers splitting one position minutes) happens quite often, the math isn't difficult. Jim Boeheim has successfully made a 40yr HOF career out of doing it all season long in a rugged Big East/ACC, conf tournament & NCAA tournaments. Modern-day, positionless basketball makes it even easier to play your most efficient players. In playoff elimination games every coach shortens their bench, Wannamaker will be the victim here.
174 minutes from 4 players in Game 7 tonight against Toronto

Kemba 44
Tatum 44
Brown 43
Smart 43

When/if Haywards comes back and they face an elimination game those BIG 5 will play ALL the non-Center minutes. Regardless of the modern-day pace of play concerns and no coaching acrobatics needed.
 

lovegtm

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I can't get over how perfectly this bracket has broken, with Simmons out (I might have picked Philly had he been available), then drawing a team that can't score when Hayward was out, and now avoiding the Bucks.

The final dream scenario would be for the Lakers or Nuggets to somehow get past the Clippers.
 

benhogan

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I can't get over how perfectly this bracket has broken, with Simmons out (I might have picked Philly had he been available), then drawing a team that can't score when Hayward was out, and now avoiding the Bucks.

The final dream scenario would be for the Lakers or Nuggets to somehow get past the Clippers.
Getting some Danny luck in regards to the draw. Also, Tuesday start, for guys to catch their breath (and Miami to get a little stale) works out.

Looks like we nailed the "Kanter playoff use" and "minutes/rotation in an elimination game" stances from this Summer. :redwine:
 

Koufax

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The mention above of the big 5 reminds me of something that's been rolling around in my head for awhile. Consider the draft position of that big 5:
Kemba 9, Marcus 6, Gordon 9, Jason 3, Jaylen 3. Total it up to 30; so average = 5. Is there team with better draft position pedigree in their rotation?
 

lovegtm

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The mention above of the big 5 reminds me of something that's been rolling around in my head for awhile. Consider the draft position of that big 5:
Kemba 9, Marcus 6, Gordon 9, Jason 3, Jaylen 3. Total it up to 30; so average = 5. Is there team with better draft position pedigree in their rotation?
The Lakers average out worse I think, but they play 3 #1 overalls at times.
 

Euclis20

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The mention above of the big 5 reminds me of something that's been rolling around in my head for awhile. Consider the draft position of that big 5:
Kemba 9, Marcus 6, Gordon 9, Jason 3, Jaylen 3. Total it up to 30; so average = 5. Is there team with better draft position pedigree in their rotation?
It's remarkable comparing this to their starting lineup from 3 years ago when they were the 1 seed. The starting five was Amir Johnson/Isaiah Thomas/Jae Crowder/Avery Bradley/Al Horford, and their average draft position was 34. Horford was the only lottery pick, and Bradley was the only other 1st round pick.
 

BigSoxFan

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The mention above of the big 5 reminds me of something that's been rolling around in my head for awhile. Consider the draft position of that big 5:
Kemba 9, Marcus 6, Gordon 9, Jason 3, Jaylen 3. Total it up to 30; so average = 5. Is there team with better draft position pedigree in their rotation?
The average would be 6...

(ducks)

But, yeah, that’s pretty sweet. Ainge did such a great job after the Big 3 era.