2019-2020 Celtics Regular Season Thread

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Just looking at the Celtics 5 losses this season & searching for some clues.

(SSS aside) In those losses:
1. They have all been on the road and 4 were with Hayward out.
2. The opponent has averaged 102.4ppg in regulation. So the defense has been fine
3. The Celtics have averaged 97.6ppg in regulation. So the offense seems to be an issue
4. The Celtics have shot 45-156 from the 3pt line (29%)
5. Kemba (5-27) & Smart (4-31) have combined for 9-58 from 3pt line (16%), rest of the team 36-98 (37%)

Kemba's lower 3pt% in those losses may be due to defensive blitzes and expect to see more hockey assists when he gets doubled/blitzed.
Going forward I'd expect Marcus Smart to post up guards, get paint touches and go strong to the rim which leads to layups/FTs (88% FT). OR kick-out to more efficient catch/shoot shooters (JB, Kemba, JT, Hayward) for step-in 3PAs.
I'm guessing TOs were down. TOs lead to easy baskets, which is what this Cs team really needs. GH coming back will be great for this.
 

benhogan

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I'm guessing TOs were down. TOs lead to easy baskets, which is what this Cs team really needs. GH coming back will be great for this.
opponent turnovers were not down in losses

in their 5 losses, the opponent averaged 17 TO/gm
in their 16 wins, the opponent averaged 14.5 TO/gm

GH will be very helpful with offensive efficiency/flow/distribution, which seems to be the teams' issue in losses
 
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Eddie Jurak

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I 100% agree with your rotation projection, and like that rotation, a lot. Give me that rotation healthy and I'll be ready to see this team go to battle 60 games from now.
[/QUOT]There isn't a lot of "bench scoring", exactly, but I think that having 4 starters averaging around 20 ppg each and using rotations that keep 1 or 2 of them out with the bench guys nearly all of the time mitigates that.

The big question will be who finishes in close, and I imagine that will be situational.
 

InstaFace

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My daily Marcus Morris Sr rant:

If you just stuck MaMo on a 2nd unit with 3 young, scrappy, defensive first players he would be fine. BUT when you stick him in a starting unit, and he brings his Philly Hero solo act it just kills the offensive flow. ADD in his worsening defense (which he has a VERY high opinion of) and NBA wings lick their chops when they get to play opposite MaMo.

I still have him and his ego leading the NBA in techs.
Hey, aside from Kawhi, nobody plays better defense on Lebron. Just ask him.
 

TripleOT

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Grant was 5-12 in the four preseason games from three, 41.6%. This 0-22 miss streak was ridiculous.
 

DJnVa

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Grant was 5-12 in the four preseason games from three, 41.6%. This 0-22 miss streak was ridiculous.
It was 0-25. He was 7-19 in summer league---so before regular season started he was 12-31, 38.7%.
 

Kliq

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Our Big 4 combined for 75 points last night, on 31 of 52 shooting and 10 for 20 from three. They didn't get to the line, but from a team standpoint it doesn't get much more efficient than that. Nobody took more than 15 shots, and nobody made fewer than 7 field goals. Just perfect balance on offense, you love to see it.
 

lexrageorge

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Somehow, Aron Baynes (#30) is ranked higher in ORPM than either Tatum (#73) or Brown (#65). I'm assuming there's some noise in the data given that Baynes has missed about 8 games in this young season. Hayward's ORPM ranking (#20) is probably similarly boosted.

What say you, @benhogan ?
 

benhogan

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Somehow, Aron Baynes (#30) is ranked higher in ORPM than either Tatum (#73) or Brown (#65). I'm assuming there's some noise in the data given that Baynes has missed about 8 games in this young season. Hayward's ORPM ranking (#20) is probably similarly boosted.

What say you, @benhogan ?
too soon, still in mourning... lovegtm has promised me that Danny will bring him back next year, so I have that going for me.

as far as Baynes being an offensive savant, must be the desert air? Because HRB assured me he was offensively limited and no more than a 12mpg fossil :drunk:
 

bowiac

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Somehow, Aron Baynes (#30) is ranked higher in ORPM than either Tatum (#73) or Brown (#65). I'm assuming there's some noise in the data given that Baynes has missed about 8 games in this young season. Hayward's ORPM ranking (#20) is probably similarly boosted.

What say you, @benhogan ?
RPM is a rate stat, so missing games doesn't hurt you.

FWIW, the creator of RPM now works for the Mavs and isn't involved with the project anymore. The analytics community has mostly given up on RPM.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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RPM is a rate stat, so missing games doesn't hurt you.

FWIW, the creator of RPM now works for the Mavs and isn't involved with the project anymore. The analytics community has mostly given up on RPM.
Aside from your models what are the key metrics you look at these days?
 

bowiac

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Aside from your models what are the key metrics you look at these days?
You can find "normal" RAPM, and Luck Adjusted RAPM on nbashotcharts.com. That's a pretty good baseline stat.

I think 538's RAPTOR metric is pretty well thought out, although mostly unproven so far, and Nate Silver doesn't have a good track record when it comes to NBA metrics. But despite that, the metric is more granular than just about anything else out there (other than DARKO), and so far, their win projections powered by RAPTOR have held up well.

And I think PIPM (by Jacob Goldstein) is very good, and helpful in that it's not very black box at all.

Obviously DARKO has become my go-to, but beyond that, I'd say those three are the ones I check.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Thank you.

I like PIPM as well. And I also think me and perhaps others here owe London an apology after he cited PIPM when discussing Ben Simmons iirc and he got some grief for it.
 

bowiac

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Update. Have heard through the grapevine that RPM now uses tracking data as well (which it previously did not). ESPN will have a full writeup of the changes on Monday.
 

luckiestman

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Any stat that has Tatum at 4 is seriously fucked up! We all know he in numero uno.
 

lexrageorge

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RPM is a rate stat, so missing games doesn't hurt you.

FWIW, the creator of RPM now works for the Mavs and isn't involved with the project anymore. The analytics community has mostly given up on RPM.
My point was that Baynes' and Hayward's game samples are smaller by a fair amount. So a couple of really good or bad games could skew their rate stats compared to the other players. Much like a hitter having a couple of 5-5 games causing him to be batting 0.400 over 15 games. Or at least that was my assumption.
 

DJnVa

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Carsen is going to light up the G League.

After tonight, Celtics have 5 days off and Maine plays tomorrow and Sunday, so it'll let him get 50-60 more minutes of game time. I'd think this means they think Hayward plays tonight. I know they don't play the same spot but if he was out you'd think they'd keep Edwards around just for an extra body.
 

DJnVa

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Smart is OUT. Hayward is PROBABLE.

No need to burn another of Waters days.
 

benhogan

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Carsen is going to light up the G League.

After tonight, Celtics have 5 days off and Maine plays tomorrow and Sunday, so it'll let him get 50-60 more minutes of game time. I'd think this means they think Hayward plays tonight. I know they don't play the same spot but if he was out you'd think they'd keep Edwards around just for an extra body.
agreed, have to think Hayward will play.

The Carsen move is smart and predictable. Maine will help him get in-game reps. I wouldn't be shocked to see him down there a few more times this season. This is what smart player development looks like for late 1st/early 2nd round picks. A smattering of minutes at the NBA level & G-League games in between.
 

HomeRunBaker

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agreed, have to think Hayward will play.

The Carsen move is smart and predictable. Maine will help him get in-game reps. I wouldn't be shocked to see him down there a few more times this season. This is what smart player development looks like for late 1st/early 2nd round picks. A smattering of minutes at the NBA level & G-League games in between.
Let’s not ignore that if Carsen was productive in Boston that he wouldn’t be sent to Maine. We weren’t playing him for smart player development we were playing him because we are looking for someone to take backup guard minutes and he wasn’t very good at it......which wasn’t totally unexpected.
 

lovegtm

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Let’s not ignore that if Carsen was productive in Boston that he wouldn’t be sent to Maine. We weren’t playing him for smart player development we were playing him because we are looking for someone to take backup guard minutes and he wasn’t very good at it......which wasn’t totally unexpected.
There's a decent chance they gave the two-way to the wrong guy, between Waters and Edwards.
 

k-factory

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They can grow from both these last two games and it’s not fair to ignore they were without their best and grittiest defender but allowing 40% and then 50% from deep killed them. We could just chalk it up to random variance since they are 6th in the league on opponent 3pt% but one commonality is both those teams had size that required attention in the paint but their kick outs were brutally effective. Seems like an area Stevens would work on.
 

bankshot1

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If there is an area of concern other than being too small, and i don't expect them to get bigger immediately, its the nature of these recent close losses to good teams and not closing out games that with a little greater "something" might have been successfully closed out.
 

benhogan

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Theis gaining confidence with wide-open 3pt shots is a huge development for the Celtics halfcourt offense. Dragging the opposing 5 to the 3pt line will open up the lane/rim for the rest of the starters.

Kanter's advanced offensive game will exploit opponents' 2nd team rotations.

I'm more optimistic about the Celtics now then I was 3 days ago, even with 2 losses.
 

lovegtm

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Theis gaining confidence with wide-open 3pt shots is a huge development for the Celtics halfcourt offense. Dragging the opposing 5 to the 3pt line will open up the lane/rim for the rest of the starters.

Kanter's advanced offensive game will exploit opponents' 2nd team rotations.

I'm more optimistic about the Celtics now then I was 3 days ago, even with 2 losses.
Yeah, the biggest takeaway is that we’re not likely to see a trade for a center. Maybe a depth trade to swap out VP for another big, but another than that they’ll probably just monitor the buyout market.
 

benhogan

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There's a decent chance they gave the two-way to the wrong guy, between Waters and Edwards.
2nd round picks, this is what rookie player development looks like.

Brad/Danny are committed now, more than ever, to rookie/young player development. They are playing the long game. Whatever we get from the rookies this season is a bonus and I wouldn't be quick to write any of them off. They could be adding value by seasons end.

IMO NBA Championship aspirations are about 2021and beyond.
 
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lovegtm

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2nd round picks, this is what rookie player development looks like.

The Brad/Danny are more committed now, more than ever, to rookie/young player development. They are playing the long game. Whatever we get from the rookies this season is a bonus and I wouldn't be quick to write any of them off. They could be adding value by seasons end.

IMO NBA Championship aspirations are about 2021and beyond.
I’m sure they want to compete in 2021 and beyond, and they won’t sacrifice those years just for 2020, but if you’re close in this league, you absolutely have to go for a championship in terms of mentality.
 

benhogan

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I’m sure they want to compete in 2021 and beyond, and they won’t sacrifice those years just for 2020, but if you’re close in this league, you absolutely have to go for a championship in terms of mentality.
My point is they are giving out development minutes, at the NBA level, like they never have before. They have shifted philosophy a bit, Toronto influence?

Rozier and Young, mid firsts, on much worse teams, rarely saw the floor as much as Carsen/Grant have this season.

Plus the Celtics have 7 rookies (and some called for an 8th rookie - Strus in lieu of BW/SO) on the 17man roster. In the past, the C's filled out the roster with experienced NBA or G-league players.

I'm sure the Celtics mentality is to try and win it all this year. I don't believe their development philosophy hurts that. BUT they will need roughly a dozen things to go their way for that to happen in 2020. As Vegas rightly points out, odds are slim
 
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ugmo33

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It seems like most of the trade chatter on here has focused on getting an upgrade at the 5, but I actually think Kanter proved he's valuable against Embiid last night and Theis does his thing pretty well. At this point, I really like their top 5 in a playoff series with the three-headed 5 providing lots of match up-based flexibility.

I think potential trade targets should be for some scoring off the bench to take some of the Carsen/Brad/Semi minutes. Especially someone that can be counted on to provide some scoring when things get tight in the playoffs. What about Derrick Rose or Davis Bertans? Detroit might want to push for the 8 seed and Washington might want the Memphis pick, but the salaries are easy to match with Poirier and someone else.
 

lovegtm

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My point is they are giving out development minutes, at the NBA level, like they never have before. They have shifted philosophy a bit, Toronto influence?

Rozier and Young, mid firsts, on much worse teams, rarely saw the floor as much as Carsen/Grant have this season.

Plus the Celtics have 7 rookies (and some called for an 8th rookie - Strus in lieu of BW/SO) on the 17man roster. In the past, the C's filled out the roster with experienced NBA or G-league players.

I'm sure the Celtics mentality is to try and win it all this year. BUT they will need roughly a dozen things to go their way for that to happen in 2020. As Vegas rightly points out, odds are slim
Agree on the increased development focus.
 

JakeRae

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If there is an area of concern other than being too small, and i don't expect them to get bigger immediately, its the nature of these recent close losses to good teams and not closing out games that with a little greater "something" might have been successfully closed out.
That “something” is Marcus Smart.
 

bigq

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Joel Embiid just put up 38/13/6 and was a + 21.
How do you get that Kanter has value against him or Theis does pretty well?
Embiid put up 16 of his points in the 4th with seven of those coming on free throws when the Celtics were in foul mode to conserve clock. For the first three quarters the Celtics played him pretty well. That’s my glass half full optimistic outlook anyway.
 

benhogan

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Joel Embiid just put up 38/13/6 and was a + 21.
How do you get that Kanter has value against him or Theis does pretty well?
I think we're pointing out that offensively Theis/Kanter have value.

In order to stop a "motivated" Embiid you need to effectively double him when he starts pounding the ball with his head down.
terrynever, our resident 76ers fan, pointed out Embiid was not harassed by anyone at all when he had the ball in the post. Marcus Smart has been known to do a good job doing exactly that when he comes over on the double.

The Athletic today points out Embiid had 19 touches in the post, up from his average of 11.. Shockingly, zero turnovers on those 19. Only two all game.
That was a rare focused effort by Philly on the road last night. Barkley and Shaq got Embiid‘s attention, and he listened.
 

the moops

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Embiid put up 16 of his points in the 4th with seven of those coming on free throws when the Celtics were in foul mode to conserve clock. For the first three quarters the Celtics played him pretty well. That’s my glass half full optimistic outlook anyway.
it was 5, not 7. :)