2019-2020 Celtics Regular Season Thread
- Thread starter Devizier
- Start date
Or better yet.....acquire and actually NBA rotational guard before the deadline lol.
Yeah, that's a different story. Given the fact that the "big 5" have all hit or exceeded expectations, they could use more shooting from a traditional 2 type. I'm fine with Kemba/Wannamaker/Smart at PG, but when you're running out the current iteration of Carsen Edwards to fill the off-guard role, you have a problem that can be solved.
I'd much rather see this team add shooting in some form than a center tbh. Especially against Philly, MIL, and Indy, who all have guys you can hide shooters on defensively.
I wouldn’t say the minutes are going to “developmental” players as much as it is the same philosophy Theo used with the Red Sox in investing big money in the top tier of your roster while finding value on cheap deals to fill out the roster. Wanamaker, Theis, and Ojeleye, Kanter (1-yr deal) are relatively cheap veteran fillers, not development players.....they are, along those in rookie deals, cheap value plays with limited roles that allowed us to sign Hayward, Kemba, etc, etc. With Jaylen and Tatum coming due I expect this trend to continue as Ainge has generally been a huge proponent of this type roster structure over the years during our championship window with Pierce/KG.
There is nothing wrong with throwing young skit against the wall to see what sticks to begin the season but this is why I expect veterans fillers to remain on the vet min bargain side.
Last edited:
Bertans seems a great fit. He gives them more versatility in that they don't have a player with his size and skillset, a true stretch 4. Teams with length seem to bother the Celtics offense, having a 6'10 guy who can shoot over that length could be very valuable. Advanced stats have his defense as weak, but his offense has been elite enough to have a significant positive impact overall.
Rose seems like less of a fit, I think we need length and shooting more than off the dribble playmaking. He's a good player though.
Yes, we're 7-6 in our last 13. Every loss is followed by comments here that "well, we would have won but for Hayward/Kemba/Smart being hurt" or "the other team shot 50% from downtown" or"ref ball" or "schedule loss" or some other excuse. Every one of these loses were winnable games where "something" didn't happen.
The team got off to a great start, but the margin between winning and losing (especially against the teams we need to defeat if we're going anywhere in the post season) seems pretty narrow right now
Last edited:
Early season it seemed they were winning those games, lately they've been losing them. Hopefully it's not a sign of something more serious, I'd be glad to see them reverse the trend. As EJ says, it's still early.
I really don't see a trend or should I say an "adjusted trend." The teams we've won those early season single-digit games against included the Knicks, Wizards, Cavs, Warriors, and Kings. The only sign it sends to me is that when we play lottery teams were take care of business and when we play teams like the Sixers, Pacers, Clippers, and Nuggets (4 of our last 5 single digit losses) we lose because we are the (slightly, in some cases) inferior team.
Basically what I'm saying is that this isn't some type of jeckyl and hyde team......we have not lost a single game when favored by more than 4 points and we have not won a single game when an underdog of more than 3 points. We are as predictable a team as there has been thus far in the NBA.
The team is good, but it’s not fully-formed yet. It’s a work in progress both in terms of roster, development, and offensive/defensive system. They have some championship equity, but, as you said, the margin of error is very low.
If you’re expecting a 2008 Celtics experience, you probably want to tune in a year or two from now. This is more of a fairly stable alpha version.
As everyone knows, the Celtics have had Hayward, Walker and Smart miss time over the last month. That absolutely contributed to them regressing after their 10-1 start.
That said, teams had enough data on how Boston was running their offense as well as different player tendencies to start adjusting. As of Friday, 11/15 they were 10-1 and second overall in differential at 8.7. They were also 13th in eFG% on offense at 52.6% and sixth in eFG% against at 49.7%. They were also at the top of the leaderboard with the lowest turnover percentage in the league at 11.4%.
At present, their differential is +7.4 so while that has come down, its not by a lot and clearly not as dramatic as, say, Milwaukee's rise (holy hell, the Bucks went thermonuclear going from +7.4 to +13!!! - As of that date, they were just two games into their 17 game win streak). However Boston's eFG% on offense is now tied for 17th with Charlotte at 52.4% and their defensive eFG% is now eighth at 50.8%. And finally, they have fallen to fourth in TOV% at 13%.
In sum, they have regressed mostly defensively as well as in ball security. As Stevens observed to Grande before the 76ers game, some of the turnover increase has to do with the aforementioned absence of their primary ballhandlers. Overall, it seems as if its combination of the injuries, a tougher schedule, mean reversion and opposing teams using early season data to game-plan better for Celtics tendencies are the main culprits for their recent up and down play.
My guess is that HRB is about right in his assessment - this is really who they are right now. That doesn't preclude another leap from one of/both of the Jays or that a fully healthy line-up might bump them up again. On the other hand, they have some flaws (obviously size) so it may be time for Stevens et al to make their own adjustments. And explore what sort of size is available to them via the trade market as well.
That said, teams had enough data on how Boston was running their offense as well as different player tendencies to start adjusting. As of Friday, 11/15 they were 10-1 and second overall in differential at 8.7. They were also 13th in eFG% on offense at 52.6% and sixth in eFG% against at 49.7%. They were also at the top of the leaderboard with the lowest turnover percentage in the league at 11.4%.
At present, their differential is +7.4 so while that has come down, its not by a lot and clearly not as dramatic as, say, Milwaukee's rise (holy hell, the Bucks went thermonuclear going from +7.4 to +13!!! - As of that date, they were just two games into their 17 game win streak). However Boston's eFG% on offense is now tied for 17th with Charlotte at 52.4% and their defensive eFG% is now eighth at 50.8%. And finally, they have fallen to fourth in TOV% at 13%.
In sum, they have regressed mostly defensively as well as in ball security. As Stevens observed to Grande before the 76ers game, some of the turnover increase has to do with the aforementioned absence of their primary ballhandlers. Overall, it seems as if its combination of the injuries, a tougher schedule, mean reversion and opposing teams using early season data to game-plan better for Celtics tendencies are the main culprits for their recent up and down play.
My guess is that HRB is about right in his assessment - this is really who they are right now. That doesn't preclude another leap from one of/both of the Jays or that a fully healthy line-up might bump them up again. On the other hand, they have some flaws (obviously size) so it may be time for Stevens et al to make their own adjustments. And explore what sort of size is available to them via the trade market as well.
I think the flaw is less size (Embiid is the only matchup they're really undersized against), and more that the roster as constructed needs both offensive chemistry and health in order to play well. That's one overlooked reason it's generally preferable to have 2 superstars over 3-4 very good players: fewer points of failure. (Of course, even having stars is no guarantee: OKC had a dynasty derailed by annual injuries).
So while a fully healthy lineup might bump them up, it still leaves them fragile to injury. One way to solve this is to go a bit more veteran on the bench at the deadline or on the buyout market.
The other way to overcome the fragility is for top players to make leaps, and the Js are the only realistic candidates for that. I'm very optimistic about them in the mid and long-term (we forget that Tatum would be a senior in college right now), but you can't count on that happening in the course of one season.
All of that said, this is the best Celtics team in awhile, by a fair bit. Whether you want to measure by upside, ability to take care of business, net rating--they're good, if not quite at the top. Most of the handwringing (not from you) is coming because they're slightly ahead of schedule, but everyone also senses that Kemba has an expiration date.
I'm just going to enjoy the ride and stay optimistic. It's a fun team, and the sliver of right-now championship possibility they have, if things break just right, makes it more fun for me than the IT teams, which had no realistic chance.
This is spot on. I really like this roster now and for the future (where JB/JT become top 15 players in 2-3 seasons)
I don't see the need for adding an offensive piece like Bertans? the competition for him is going to make him costly for a half-season rental? and Washington isn't giving him away.
Hayward is working his way back from injury, Kanter can dominate rotational 2nd string centers, Theis is rediscovering his 3pt shot from last season and Wanamaker is capable of hitting 3s. When the playoffs come around, rotations will shorten, and our best 5 will soak up the vast majority of the 1-4 minutes, leaving ~20mpg for Wanamaker (who I like)
In the post-game presser, Brad alluded to VP maybe being the depth/beef that we need at the 5. I expect we'll see VP for a few more minutes against some classic, old-school centers for the next 8 weeks. Ten minutes of aggressive/high energy defense against Embiid/BIGs from someone other then Theis/Kanter would help. TL just can't stay healthy for whatever reason. Maybe the buyout market turns up that defense-first beefy 5. Either way, the cost should not be high for the depth the C's need there.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PdbpmeUODME
Here is one of the more realistic lists of depth 5's potentially available to the Celtic's
https://weei.radio.com/blogs/nick-friar/5-bigs-celtics-could-target-in-a-trade
https://weei.radio.com/blogs/nick-friar/5-bigs-celtics-could-target-in-a-trade
And what about their offensive rebounding? Everyone knows the most important factor in NBA success is offensive rebounding.
None of those guys seem anywhere strong enough to provide a depth banger. I’d probably rather just go small when necessary at the 5 generally, let Kanter bang in a few matchups and add some bench shooting.
The buyout market is more attractive at the 5: some of these guys making too much money will get bought out, and the Celtics can offer real minutes with a chance to showcase deep into the playoffs.
Nice article by Weiss in The Athletic about what Kanter did against Embiid on both ends:
https://theathletic.com/1459315/2019/12/13/celtics-film-review-against-76ers-enes-kanter-found-his-best-performance-of-the-year/?amp#click=[URL]https://t.co/mSYRlQcpk3[/URL]
I personally felt like Brad could have just gone ahead and matched Embiid and Kanter’s minutes a lot sooner, but I also don’t sweat regular season optimizations so much.
Theis for “normal” teams, Kanter for the 3-4 true post bruisers left in the league, hope for improvement from TL, and play better team/help defense seems like a fine target to me for the rest of the way.
https://theathletic.com/1459315/2019/12/13/celtics-film-review-against-76ers-enes-kanter-found-his-best-performance-of-the-year/?amp#click=[URL]https://t.co/mSYRlQcpk3[/URL]
I personally felt like Brad could have just gone ahead and matched Embiid and Kanter’s minutes a lot sooner, but I also don’t sweat regular season optimizations so much.
Theis for “normal” teams, Kanter for the 3-4 true post bruisers left in the league, hope for improvement from TL, and play better team/help defense seems like a fine target to me for the rest of the way.
Your assessment of the buyout market as the key possible avenue to improve is a good one imo (apologies to those who also may have called that out. Sure, a trade scenario is possible. But I just don't see how we easily make big changes there without blowing things up, and Ainge probably isn't inclined to do that. Aside from Smart, there aren't any mid-tier salaries to match up with. Some buyout guy could help.
I am glad for it. It is a good opportunity to work on actions on both ends plus transition, and guys can still get rest and treatment. For a young team, it's a benefit.
They've played 4 fewer games than the Sixers ( and fewer than any other team), and now they get 5 days off? Gonna be a tight schedule from here out.
View: https://twitter.com/celtics/status/1206952210464169985
VP out 6 weeks. Down to Theis and Kanter as the only real bigs on the team. Grant will probably need to step up over the next few weeks.
VP out 6 weeks. Down to Theis and Kanter as the only real bigs on the team. Grant will probably need to step up over the next few weeks.
With Smart and potentially Tatum out tomorrow night, I wonder if we'll see Romeo make an appearance. Though, I'm sure if he plays for 10 minutes and misses a couple of shots and blows a defensive rotation, he will be immediately called a bust. But, still, I'm curious to see how he looks.
Willie Cauley-Stein is still available for a bag of Kane's donuts.
I swear, you guys won't hate him! He's an occasional space cadet, but a super likable seven-footer with great athleticism who moves really well on D and isn't a black hole on O. He got six steals in his last game v Sactown. On the season (per 36): 12.5 pts on .566 ts / 10.1 reb / 2.4 ast / 2.0 stl / 2.1 blk.
Only mild drawback is he's on the books next season for $2.2M (player option). But that's hardly a hefty price, and I think easily movable if/when one of your baby bigs (TL, Tacko or Poirier) pans out. I would happily keep him on the Warriors if (a) we weren't tanking; and (b) we weren't hard-capped and didn't have to guarantee the contract of Ky Bowman, arguably our best player over the first quarter-season, currently forced to ply his wares in the G-League (and of course crushing the competition there) to preserve the few remaining big-league days under his two-way contract.
Alternatively, you guys would love Marquese Chriss, who at age 22 is fully blossoming and is good at pretty much everything (passing, shooting, FT shooting, screening, rolling, finishing, rebounding, switching, shotblocking, e.g.) with surprising toughness and high hoops IQ to boot. He has basically stopped trying to be a finesse KD 2.0 guy, and is embracing his role as a rugged, switchable modern-day big man. But I'd guess Myers and Co. see what they have in him, too, so he might be harder to pry.
I swear, you guys won't hate him! He's an occasional space cadet, but a super likable seven-footer with great athleticism who moves really well on D and isn't a black hole on O. He got six steals in his last game v Sactown. On the season (per 36): 12.5 pts on .566 ts / 10.1 reb / 2.4 ast / 2.0 stl / 2.1 blk.
Only mild drawback is he's on the books next season for $2.2M (player option). But that's hardly a hefty price, and I think easily movable if/when one of your baby bigs (TL, Tacko or Poirier) pans out. I would happily keep him on the Warriors if (a) we weren't tanking; and (b) we weren't hard-capped and didn't have to guarantee the contract of Ky Bowman, arguably our best player over the first quarter-season, currently forced to ply his wares in the G-League (and of course crushing the competition there) to preserve the few remaining big-league days under his two-way contract.
Alternatively, you guys would love Marquese Chriss, who at age 22 is fully blossoming and is good at pretty much everything (passing, shooting, FT shooting, screening, rolling, finishing, rebounding, switching, shotblocking, e.g.) with surprising toughness and high hoops IQ to boot. He has basically stopped trying to be a finesse KD 2.0 guy, and is embracing his role as a rugged, switchable modern-day big man. But I'd guess Myers and Co. see what they have in him, too, so he might be harder to pry.
We are down to zero depth at C. Brad is either going to have to play Theis and Kanter big minutes with the occasional GW stint at C or it's Tacko Time for 10 minutes a night.
Stop trying to sell your crap on here, this isn't Facebook marketplace!
WCS has been pretty good against the Celtics, and he is HRB's binky from way back. I do think if Porier is going to miss some time they need one more true center, and if they don't want to play Tacko that much I could see them bringing in some one, but I think that would be a FA that they could sign to some 10 days. Joakim Noah, Jason Smith, Tyler Zeller, someone like that they wouldn't have to give up an asset for.
Kenneth Faried is still a FA, I thought he provided some value for Houston last year.
WCS isn't a bad option. What's the cost?
I'd much rather have Looney then Chriss, what's his Kelly Blue Book value? Late 1st rounder?
You'd much rather have last year's Looney than Chriss. This year's Loon, since he returned from the weird quad neuropathic condition, looks badly diminished physically. He's never been an explosive athlete, but seems to have lost whatever lift he had. I also think he's carrying an unwanted 15-20 lbs., likely due to recovery from the fractured ribcage (thanks, Kawhi) that cut into his offseason workouts. The physical contrast between him and Chriss right now is striking.
Quese is killing Loon stat-wise, too, though it's still early times. I think (hope?) Loon will slowly work himself into game shape, but it'll take patience. Also, he's no longer super-cheap (3/$15M including this season). In any case, I doubt they're shopping him, for sentimental reasons alone. Dude was a non-trivial part of the dynastic team, and Kerr seems super attached to him.
As far as the cost of WCS: as I said, a bag of Kane's Donuts! Or if you prefer: a bag of Donuts with a Difference (great spot in in Medford Square where I found myself chatting with Mike Pagliarulo's brother over Thanksgiving). The Ws need a roster spot, though, so I'd assume they'd ask for a second-rounder or something, as protected and far off as you want to make it.
They can't add anyone without cutting or trading someone. And if they take back any kind of salary, it probably means either Marcus or Hayward needing to be shipped out. All of which is to say that the most likely thing is that the Celtics will run with what they have.
Something to keep an eye on: They play in Toronto on Christmas. It is not certain that Kanter will be able to make that trip because Turkey has an international arrest warrant out on him. Given the instability and oddly dictator-friendly nature of the US government these days, a trip to Canada may not be something Kanter can reasonably risk.
Yeah I mean how could Myers sleep at night after giving away a random 2nd unit guy on a 5-win team who nobody wanted until the Warriors needed bodies two weeks into training camp?
WCS was finally going to have a role on a winning team which plays to his strength so I’d imagine the Warriors would find greater value in keeping him around for next year once Steph/KD return which is what he was signed for originally.
A little off topic, but how is Kanter travelling to Canada different than him being in the U.S. exactly? I assume the fear is that the Turks would arrest him, but are they more able to do that in Canada than they are here? I'd actually think Canada might put up more of a fuss than our current administration.
This was a great fantasy sales pitch; tricked me enough to get me to check how Chriss was doing. "Good at pretty much everything" gave me a chuckle
I suspect it is mostly an abundance of caution. Neither the US nor Canada are compelled to comply with any kind of Turkish arrest warrant or act on the Interpol red notice. Generally, I guess there could be a hypothetical concern that the Turks would be less concerned about sparking an international incident with Canada than they would the US, but as you say, for a "mere" green card holder I think we all know what the administration's response would be should the worst happen.
They recalled him from Maine a couple days ago, so presumably could come off the the bench, especially if they need bodies.
View: https://twitter.com/celtics/status/1206606253209853953
Chriss now has a high hoops IQ? Did he get a basketball brain transplant from someone?
As a matter of fact, he did. I found footage of Golden State's advance scout picking out his new brain...
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hw6xBdXl1Aw
He didn't travel to Canada with Trail Blazers. Technically, since his passport is revoked he can't legally cross any borders.