2019-2020 Celtics Regular Season Thread

Jimbodandy

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around the way
240 - 35 for JT
205 - 35 for JB
170 - 35 for Kemba
135 - 35 for Gord
100 - 35 for Marcus
65 - 28 for Theis
37 - 15 for Kanter
22 - 12 for Wanamaker

Leaves 10 minutes to be either divvied up between the players listed above or sorted out between the rest of the bench.

I see Wanamaker getting minutes for Stevens. He's averaged 19 minutes per game this season, is high effort and plays within the scheme. I see him delivering neutral minutes at worst, i.e. what you hope to get out of a 5th starter in MLB.
I went back and forth on BW all year.

In most matchups I think that he's fine defensively. He's backing up Kemba, who isn't Pat Beverley either. But very quick guards do feast on him, worse than anyone else that we have. So I suspect that he'll also have some games where his minutes are limited by that. Quicker hook in the playoffs seems more likely than the regular season. Depends on who we face.

Regarding Theis foul trouble, I just don't think that's a thing to worry about. If it happens, the other wings and GW will cover some minutes.
 

benhogan

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240 - 35 for JT
205 - 35 for JB
170 - 35 for Kemba
135 - 35 for Gord
100 - 35 for Marcus
65 - 28 for Theis
37 - 15 for Kanter
22 - 12 for Wanamaker

Leaves 10 minutes to be either divvied up between the players listed above or sorted out between the rest of the bench.

I see Wanamaker getting minutes for Stevens. He's averaged 19 minutes per game this season, is high effort and plays within the scheme. I see him delivering neutral minutes at worst, i.e. what you hope to get out of a 5th starter in MLB.
In the Playoffs, with the entire roster healthy + coming off a 3-month break + ZERO between game travel (stuck in Orlando) = expect NBA coaches to tighten rotations as they have never done before.

If Jayson Tatum isn't playing 40+mpg during the playoffs, I'm going full loco on game threads

prediction: BW will get DNPs in elimination games
 
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lovegtm

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You don't think that has more to do with teams not spending as much time gameplanning for a regular season game in December as it does the Celtics being able to find a way to hide Kanters defensive liabilities?
The concise way to state my position is that gameplanning on its own isn't enough: you have to have the personnel to exploit the situation. For Kanter, that's a dynamic P&R scorer who can either torch the scheme in the mid-range, or beat the Celtics constant icing (even middle) when Kanter is on the floor with quick screening direction switches from above the 3-point line. There just aren't a ton of those guys in the East: it's a big reason that Kemba is such an issue potentially for Milwaukee.

Toronto is the biggest problem here with Lowry+Van Vleet, but I expect the Celtics to use Grant Williams at center a fair amount in that matchup based on what happened in the 1st meeting this year when both teams were healthy.

There are also elements of the Celtics' Kanter scheme that I think actually translate a bit better to a playoff environment. Its main vulnerabilities are lack of execution in weaking the PnR, pocket passes, and midrangers/floaters. A lot of those are effort/communication issues, which are a bit easier to manage with fewer games, more prep, and light at the end of the tunnel.

Kanter is vulnerable and takes effort to hide defensively, but it's hard to just scheme him off the floor without specific personnel. Post-Warriors, none of the teams the Celtics will face (except maayyybbee Toronto) can put that personnel on the floor for 48 mins/game.
 

benhogan

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The concise way to state my position is that gameplanning on its own isn't enough: you have to have the personnel to exploit the situation. For Kanter, that's a dynamic P&R scorer who can either torch the scheme in the mid-range, or beat the Celtics constant icing (even middle) when Kanter is on the floor with quick screening direction switches from above the 3-point line. There just aren't a ton of those guys in the East: it's a big reason that Kemba is such an issue potentially for Milwaukee.

Toronto is the biggest problem here with Lowry+Van Vleet, but I expect the Celtics to use Grant Williams at center a fair amount in that matchup based on what happened in the 1st meeting this year when both teams were healthy.

There are also elements of the Celtics' Kanter scheme that I think actually translate a bit better to a playoff environment. Its main vulnerabilities are lack of execution in weaking the PnR, pocket passes, and midrangers/floaters. A lot of those are effort/communication issues, which are a bit easier to manage with fewer games, more prep, and light at the end of the tunnel.

Kanter is vulnerable and takes effort to hide defensively, but it's hard to just scheme him off the floor without specific personnel. Post-Warriors, none of the teams the Celtics will face (except maayyybbee Toronto) can put that personnel on the floor for 48 mins/game.
Kanter is really screwed if they run The Picket Fence :eek:

hopefully Brad has been privy to the genius of Dennis Hopper.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xU0BebHh5LY
 

The Social Chair

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In the Playoffs, with the entire roster healthy + coming off a 3-month break + ZERO between game travel (stuck in Orlando) = expect NBA coaches to tighten rotations as they have never done before.

If Jayson Tatum isn't playing 40+mpg during the playoffs, I'm going full loco on game threads

prediction: BW will get DNPs in elimination games
Danny Ainge may have to use clockwork orange style brain washing to get Stevens to break away from his 11 man random rotations .
 

mcpickl

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The concise way to state my position is that gameplanning on its own isn't enough: you have to have the personnel to exploit the situation. For Kanter, that's a dynamic P&R scorer who can either torch the scheme in the mid-range, or beat the Celtics constant icing (even middle) when Kanter is on the floor with quick screening direction switches from above the 3-point line. There just aren't a ton of those guys in the East: it's a big reason that Kemba is such an issue potentially for Milwaukee.

Toronto is the biggest problem here with Lowry+Van Vleet, but I expect the Celtics to use Grant Williams at center a fair amount in that matchup based on what happened in the 1st meeting this year when both teams were healthy.

There are also elements of the Celtics' Kanter scheme that I think actually translate a bit better to a playoff environment. Its main vulnerabilities are lack of execution in weaking the PnR, pocket passes, and midrangers/floaters. A lot of those are effort/communication issues, which are a bit easier to manage with fewer games, more prep, and light at the end of the tunnel.

Kanter is vulnerable and takes effort to hide defensively, but it's hard to just scheme him off the floor without specific personnel. Post-Warriors, none of the teams the Celtics will face (except maayyybbee Toronto) can put that personnel on the floor for 48 mins/game.
The way the matchups look now, I'm not excited about Kanter being on the floor with Ben Simmons coming downhill at him with either of Horford or Embiid at the 5.

I think that will be close to an auto-bucket every trip up the floor.
 

mcpickl

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The struggle here is that the way defense works best now is different than in the past. Essentially, modern NBA players have to cover far more real estate in the pace and space era.

Undersized guards are clearly at a physical disadvantage but can at least use their foot speed and athleticism to compensate somewhat. Slow footed bigs have no way to recover when quicker guys blow past them such as when they get targeted in PnRs. Which is exactly how teams play against Kanter types in the playoffs.
Agreed.

As disadvantaged on defense as IT was, at least they were able to somewhat hide him by just guarding the corner on defense. It took work when the offense tried to force a switch, but at least having the sideline and baseline as a border, and the Celtics having athletic wings to switch quickly, they were mostly able to get away with it.

There is no way to hide your center. Especially when the Celtics are mostly playing a wing as the next biggest guy on the floor.

In the Playoffs, with the entire roster healthy + coming off a 3-month break + ZERO between game travel (stuck in Orlando) = expect NBA coaches to tighten rotations as they have never done before.

If Jayson Tatum isn't playing 40+mpg during the playoffs, I'm going full loco on game threads

prediction: BW will get DNPs in elimination games
I would bet heavily against this.

The Celtics only have 6 trustworthy guys on the roster. Wanamaker is probably number 7.

The top 6 guys are gonna play as many minutes as they can handle. But they're not going to be able to get to 40 each.
 
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benhogan

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The Celtics only have 6 trustworthy guys on the roster. Wanamaker is probably number 7.

The top 6 guys are gonna play as many minutes as they can handle. But they're not going to be able to get to 40 each.
I'm not an anti-Wanamaker guy. He has situational value (physically strong, good spot-up 3pt shooter, FTs) and soaked up a ton of regular-season minutes due to injuries... Just think CBS will go 7 deep in an elimination game. With KW/MS strictly handling the ball. I'd expect either EK or Granite would be the 7th option to spell Theis.

You must have been dead set against Danny signing Kanter last summer since Enes outperformed the most optimistic of forecasts. The C's are going to have to live with cheap, flawed 5s with KW/the Jays owning most of the cap for the foreseeable future. Danny shouldn't have any trouble adding veteran, defense-first 5s on the cheap via FA over the next few offseasons.
 

Saints Rest

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In the Playoffs, with the entire roster healthy + coming off a 3-month break + ZERO between game travel (stuck in Orlando) = expect NBA coaches to tighten rotations as they have never done before.

If Jayson Tatum isn't playing 40+mpg during the playoffs, I'm going full loco on game threads

prediction: BW will get DNPs in elimination games
The thing I wonder about is how quickly these guys will be able to ramp up to >30-35mpg after such a long layoff.
 

mcpickl

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I'm not an anti-Wanamaker guy. He has situational value (physically strong, good spot-up 3pt shooter, FTs) and soaked up a ton of regular-season minutes due to injuries... Just think CBS will go 7 deep in an elimination game. With KW/MS strictly handling the ball. I'd expect either EK or Granite would be the 7th option to spell Theis.

You must have been dead set against Danny signing Kanter last summer since Enes outperformed the most optimistic of forecasts. The C's are going to have to live with cheap, flawed 5s with KW/the Jays owning most of the cap for the foreseeable future. Danny shouldn't have any trouble adding veteran, defense-first 5s on the cheap via FA over the next few offseasons.
Yes to me being against Kanter before the season, and now. Wanted a defense first guy there.

As to going 7 deep in an elimination game, I don't see a realistic way that can happen being the 5 starters, Smart and a backup C.

Smart can't sub in for all 4 non-centers without constantly yanking guys in and out of the lineup and messing with their rhythm.

They'd have to sub someone out quickly, like at the 4 minute mark, then keep subbing out exactly one guy every 2ish minutes, and would leave themselves no room to try and adjust for advantageous lineups in game. Also wouldn't leave much room for riding someone who's hot, or pulling someone who's cold. That's best case scenario of no one being hurt, or getting into foul trouble, in game.

If I'm Brad in a must have game, I'm trying to get the big 5 to play 180 of the 192 non-center minutes, and Wanamaker the other 12. Then trying to get Theis to at least 30 minutes, and Kanter/Grant Williams splitting the rest of the center minutes. Kanter I'm trying my best to get on the floor when the other teams starting PG, or best penetrator, is on the bench.

Their depth really took a big hit this year. Basically replaced Kyrie, Horford, Baynes, Morris and Rozier roles in the rotation with Kemba,Theis, Kanter, Grant Williams and Wanamaker. They're really going to have to ride their top 5 guys hard.

Badly need to hit on the likely mini-MLE and/or minimum vets next year, and get development from a couple of the young guys, to get some badly needed trustworthy depth.
 
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benhogan

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Yes to me being against Kanter before the season, and now. Wanted a defense first guy there.

As to going 7 deep in an elimination game, I don't see a realistic way that can happen being the 5 starters, Smart and a backup C.

Smart can't sub in for all 4 non-centers without constantly yanking guys in and out of the lineup and messing with their rhythm.

They'd have to sub someone out quickly, like at the 4 minute mark, then keep subbing out exactly one guy every 2ish minutes, and would leave themselves no room to try and adjust for advantageous lineups in game. Also wouldn't leave much room for riding someone who's hot, or pulling someone who's cold. That's best case scenario of no one being hurt, or getting into foul trouble, in game.

If I'm Brad in a must have game, I'm trying to get the big 5 to play 180 of the 192 non-center minutes, and Wanamaker the other 12. Then trying to get Theis to at least 30 minutes, and Kanter/Grant Williams splitting the rest of the center minutes. Kanter I'm trying my best to get on the floor when the other teams starting PG, or best penetrator, is on the bench.

Their depth really took a big hit this year. Basically replaced Kyrie, Horford, Baynes, Morris and Rozier roles in the rotation with Kemba,Theis, Kanter, Grant Williams and Wanamaker. They're really going to have to ride their top 5 guys hard.

Badly need to hit on the likely mini-MLE and/or minimum vets next year, and get development from a couple of the young guys, to get some badly needed trustworthy depth.
Brad used 7 players in Game 7 2018 vs the Cavs (a "must-have" game)

Aron Baynes played 19mins. He used his best six players for 221 mins: Horford, Rozier, Brown, Tatum, MaMo, Smart.

I see a similar situation unfolding this year in an elimination game.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201805270BOS.html
(migraine alert: don't look at Smart, MaMo, Rozier or Browns shooting stats from that game)


Last year was so dysfunctional and the C's took another direction, which was necessary. They ran into cap /timing issues which led them into dealing Baynes. I'm sure Danny (and you and I) would have rather had Baynes then Kanter but it worked out OK.

This off-season they'll be able to easily find a cheap, vet 5 to rotate w/Theis and Kanter. There are dozens of centers available in FA for limited spots/$$$ (ie. last season, WCS went for $2.2MM, Noel $1.75MM and Dwight Howard took $2.5MM). The C's will be viewed as a title contender and should be able to attract cheap, veteran talent.

I'm optimistic that Grant /Romeo will fill wing bench roles next season. Semi and TL will be deep bench options. Three 1st round picks will bring in some talent via draft or combined in a trade.

60+ win seasons and title contention will be the Celtics foreseeable future.
 

mcpickl

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Brad used 7 players in Game 7 2018 vs the Cavs (a "must-have" game)

Aron Baynes played 19mins. He used his best six players for 221 mins: Horford, Rozier, Brown, Tatum, MaMo, Smart.

I see a similar situation unfolding this year in an elimination game.
That's a different skilled group of players though, right?

This year you're saying he'll play 7 guys, 2 that are center only.

The 7 in 2018 includes only one center only.

Having Horford to be able to play C/F makes a huge difference.

If Horford was in Kanters place in this years team, I'd agree he could play 7 guys.

You're basically saying the top 5 guys will play all of the 192 non-center minutes. How does that happen if they don't all start? They'd have to average 38.4 minutes each. How does Smart get there when he doesn't start? If he doesn't play the first 4 minutes of each half, he'd have to play all but one minute the rest of each half to get there. Seems impossible. Can 30 year old Gordon Hayward or tiny 30 year old Kemba Walker coming off an injury play 38 playoff minutes a night at this point in their careers? Seems really unlikely. I'm sure Brown and Tatum can handle that kind of load, but expecting the rest of them to pull that off and not be exhausted at the end of the game seems unfeasible and unwise. Especially since having only 5 guys for 4 spots, they'd all basically only be able to get 2ish minutes of rest every time they come out of the game since they'd have to go right back in to replace one of the other four.
 

lovegtm

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The way the matchups look now, I'm not excited about Kanter being on the floor with Ben Simmons coming downhill at him with either of Horford or Embiid at the 5.

I think that will be close to an auto-bucket every trip up the floor.
I'm not a big Kanter fan by any means, and I also would have strongly preferred a defense-first center.

However, your position wrt him seems to be "I think he's awful and unplayable in all playoff situations and nothing will change my mind."

Just as a quick example: if Philly has both Embiid and Horford on the floor, it's really tough to generate the space for Simmons that you need to exploit Kanter's rim protection, and this was born out in the games this year. If Philly goes to a Horford+Simmons quick lineup, then yeah, you can't play Kanter. That's why he's a spot minutes guy.

On the IT topic: IT torpedoed the Celtics defensively in both the playoffs and the regular season in 2016-2017. I get your idea about being able to hide guards in theory, but in practice it wasn't the case at all. "The Celtics were able to hide IT on defense" is a bizarre hill to die on.

Re minutes: After late Jan, Hayward played 34-37 minutes pretty much every game that wasn't a big win or loss, stretching out to 39-40 in some big games. Not sure why it's a stretch that he'd play 37-38/night in a playoff setting where you don't have back-to-backs. Agree that Kemba probably will need to find more rest minutes and that Brad/Semi/Grant will need to fill in some minutes here and there.
 

benhogan

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Sure. My point was in reference to the posters expecting the top Celts to go 40+ mpg.
3 months off +
6 weeks of practice to ramp up +
10 regular-season games to get into a rhythm +
no travel for professional athletes =
record playoff minutes played by the best players throughout the league.

You really couldn't ask for a more rested and ready to go professional athlete. The ZERO travel is huge, it's like playing a home game in regards to the body recovering/sleep schedule. Organizing a team to get to the airport post games, then flying, then checking into the hotel, unpacking, time change, etc really hinders recovery.

We'll see (or won't see if Kyrie gets his way) how it plays out.
 

benhogan

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That's a different skilled group of players though, right?

This year you're saying he'll play 7 guys, 2 that are center only.

The 7 in 2018 includes only one center only.

Having Horford to be able to play C/F makes a huge difference.

If Horford was in Kanters place in this years team, I'd agree he could play 7 guys.

You're basically saying the top 5 guys will play all of the 192 non-center minutes. How does that happen if they don't all start? They'd have to average 38.4 minutes each. How does Smart get there when he doesn't start? If he doesn't play the first 4 minutes of each half, he'd have to play all but one minute the rest of each half to get there. Seems impossible. Can 30 year old Gordon Hayward or tiny 30 year old Kemba Walker coming off an injury play 38 playoff minutes a night at this point in their careers? Seems really unlikely. I'm sure Brown and Tatum can handle that kind of load, but expecting the rest of them to pull that off and not be exhausted at the end of the game seems unfeasible and unwise. Especially since having only 5 guys for 4 spots, they'd all basically only be able to get 2ish minutes of rest every time they come out of the game since they'd have to go right back in to replace one of the other four.
1. Yes, those 5 would play all 192 minutes (maybe more if Brad wants to go super small) in an elimination game.
2. Those 5 don't all average the same minutes. Tatum and Brown would play big minutes and barely leave the floor. Tatum has played 40+mpg during regular-season games numerous times this year. He played 42 mins as a 19yr old rookie in the Game 7. He and Jaylen could easily play 42-44mins in an elimination game.
3. 32yr old Al Horford played 40mins that night and was beat up, so yes 30yr old Kemba and Hayward could easily increase their minutes in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Kemba's knee should be much better after 3 months off (equivalent to an off-season). Hayward played over 37mpg 9x over the last 20 games he played during the regular season.
4. After JB/JT take up 86mins, that leaves 106 minutes for Smart, Kemba, Hayward. That's ~35mins each, which is a complete joke stamina wise for them. They all did that numerous times in the regular season. Heck, what did Kemba play on a bad knee in a meaningless All-Star game? Kemba played over 38minutes over a half dozen times this season. He's not coming out, after never playing a meaningful NBA playoff game in his career, so Brad Wannamaker can get 10 minutes.
5. The subbing for the 5 guys would start 5 minutes into the game, with Smart, which Brad does quite often already. So no acrobatics needed there. and Smart would still get another couple minutes off per half to get to the ~35mpg.

7-man rotations for NBA/college teams (w/ 2 centers splitting one position minutes) happens quite often, the math isn't difficult. Jim Boeheim has successfully made a 40yr HOF career out of doing it all season long in a rugged Big East/ACC, conf tournament & NCAA tournaments. Modern-day, positionless basketball makes it even easier to play your most efficient players. In playoff elimination games every coach shortens their bench, Wannamaker will be the victim here.
 
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lovegtm

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1. Yes, those 5 would play all 192 minutes (maybe more if Brad wants to go super small) in an elimination game.
2. Those 5 don't all average the same minutes. Tatum and Brown would play big minutes and barely leave the floor. Tatum has played 40+mpg during regular-season games numerous times this year. He played 42 mins as a 19yr old rookie in the Game 7. He and Jaylen could easily play 42-44mins in an elimination game.
3. 32yr old Al Horford played 40mins that night and was beat up, so yes 30yr old Kemba and Hayward could easily increase their minutes in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Kemba's knee should be much better after 3 months off (equivalent to an off-season). Hayward played over 37mpg 9x over the last 20 games he played during the regular season.
4. After JB/JT take up 86mins, that leaves 106 minutes for Smart, Kemba, Hayward. That's ~35mins each, which is a complete joke stamina wise for them. They all did that numerous times in the regular season. Heck, what did Kemba play on a bad knee in a meaningless All-Star game? Kemba played over 38minutes over a half dozen times this season. He's not coming out, after never playing a meaningful NBA playoff game in his career, so Brad Wannamaker can get 10 minutes.
5. The subbing for the 5 guys would start 5 minutes into the game, with Smart, which Brad does quite often already. So no acrobatics needed there. and Smart would still get another couple minutes off per half to get to the ~35mpg.

7-man rotations for NBA/college teams (w/ 2 centers splitting one position minutes) happens quite often, the math isn't difficult. Jim Boeheim has successfully made a 40yr HOF career out of doing it all season long in a rugged Big East/ACC, conf tournament & NCAA tournaments. Modern-day, positionless basketball makes it even easier to play your most efficient players. In playoff elimination games every coach shortens their bench, Wannamaker will be the victim here.
Pretty much this. There will also probably be little spots where one of Semi/Grant/TL/Wanna/Romeo makes sense, on a very case-by-case basis. That will keep the overall minutes down somewhat at the edges. There will also very likely be blowouts one direction or the other in some of these games.
 

benhogan

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Pretty much this. There will also probably be little spots where one of Semi/Grant/TL/Wanna/Romeo makes sense, on a very case-by-case basis. That will keep the overall minutes down somewhat at the edges. There will also very likely be blowouts one direction or the other in some of these games.
Truth be told, the Celtics have always been about "2021 and beyond". Getting to EC finals would be an accomplishment this season.

I'd rather see Romeo and Grant pushed ahead of BW. I think both add more value on the court now and set this team up for future seasons.
 
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lovegtm

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Truth be told, the Celtics have always been about "2021 and beyond". Getting to EC finals would be an accomplishment this season.

I'd rather see Romeo and Grant pushed ahead of BW. I think both add more value on the court now and set this team up for future seasons.
Yeah but Stevens is never going to use a playoff game for developmental purposes, with good reason. The team has very real (if low) championship equity now, particularly in a scenario where home court won’t be real. In addition, the playoff development you really want is for JT and JB to go as far as possible.
 

mcpickl

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I'm not a big Kanter fan by any means, and I also would have strongly preferred a defense-first center.

However, your position wrt him seems to be "I think he's awful and unplayable in all playoff situations and nothing will change my mind."
I fucking hate when people say shit like this. Should I not have strong opinions? Should I just come in and say, eh maybe Kanter will be good, maybe he won't, who can say? Or, is everyone allowed to have strong opinions but me?

I hate this board sometimes man.
 

mcpickl

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1. Yes, those 5 would play all 192 minutes (maybe more if Brad wants to go super small) in an elimination game.
2. Those 5 don't all average the same minutes. Tatum and Brown would play big minutes and barely leave the floor. Tatum has played 40+mpg during regular-season games numerous times this year. He played 42 mins as a 19yr old rookie in the Game 7. He and Jaylen could easily play 42-44mins in an elimination game.
3. 32yr old Al Horford played 40mins that night and was beat up, so yes 30yr old Kemba and Hayward could easily increase their minutes in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Kemba's knee should be much better after 3 months off (equivalent to an off-season). Hayward played over 37mpg 9x over the last 20 games he played during the regular season.
4. After JB/JT take up 86mins, that leaves 106 minutes for Smart, Kemba, Hayward. That's ~35mins each, which is a complete joke stamina wise for them. They all did that numerous times in the regular season. Heck, what did Kemba play on a bad knee in a meaningless All-Star game? Kemba played over 38minutes over a half dozen times this season. He's not coming out, after never playing a meaningful NBA playoff game in his career, so Brad Wannamaker can get 10 minutes.
5. The subbing for the 5 guys would start 5 minutes into the game, with Smart, which Brad does quite often already. So no acrobatics needed there. and Smart would still get another couple minutes off per half to get to the ~35mpg.

7-man rotations for NBA/college teams (w/ 2 centers splitting one position minutes) happens quite often, the math isn't difficult. Jim Boeheim has successfully made a 40yr HOF career out of doing it all season long in a rugged Big East/ACC, conf tournament & NCAA tournaments. Modern-day, positionless basketball makes it even easier to play your most efficient players. In playoff elimination games every coach shortens their bench, Wannamaker will be the victim here.
You don't have to bold elimination games. I know we're talking about elimination games. Again, I don't see a reasonable way to have five guys cover four spots by themselves even in an elimination game.

I think it's asking a ton to have Jaylen and Tatum play 43 minutes each in an elimination game after they would have been playing heavy minutes every other night leading up to that elimination game.

To get Jaylen, Tatum, and Smart to 43, 43 and 35 minutes respectively, Jaylen/Tatum would only get one 2.5 minutes break, and Smart only one 90 second break each half after checking into the game. One of Jaylen/Tatum would have to play the whole first quarter then check back in with 9:30 to go in second quarter and play the rest of the half. The other would have to do the reverse, playing the entire second quarter. If they try that, they better have a big lead going into the final few minutes of the game because they're going to be gassed.
 

mcpickl

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McPickl, how many minutes would you have played Larry Bird and/or (a coming off injury) Michael Jordan in Game 2 of a best of 5, first round series?
In 1986, or in the much different game in 2020?

Cool gotcha question. This is what we're doing now?
 

Montana Fan

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Twin Bridges, Mt.
In 1986, or in the much different game in 2020?

Cool gotcha question. This is what we're doing now?
It's not a gotcha question, it's an observation that athletes used to play a lot more than 40 minutes in games of much lower importance. Playing 40+ minutes in a later round matchup should be no big deal for these athletes. Especially if they're healthy.
 

nighthob

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The modern game, with its stress on defense, is a lot more strenuous than the 80s game with its emphasis on transition offense.
 

BaseballJones

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In 112 career playoff games, Steph Curry...
- Played 43+ minutes in 17 of them (15.2%)
- Played 40+ minutes in 41 of them (36.6%)

In 179 career playoff games, Michael Jordan...
- Played 43+ minutes in 84 of them (46.9%)
- Played 40+ minutes in 137 of them (76.5%)

In 239 career playoff games, LeBron James...
- Played 43+ minutes in 112 of them (46.9%)
- Played 40+ minutes in 177 of them (74.1%)

In 111 career playoff games, Kawhi Leonard...
- Played 43+ minutes in 9 of them (8.1%)
- Played 40+ minutes in 26 of them (23.4%)

In 164 career playoff games, Larry Bird...
- Played 43+ minutes in 88 of them (53.7%)
- Played 40+ minutes in 125 of them (76.2%)

In 116 career playoff games, James Harden...
- Played 43+ minutes in 14 of them (12.1%)
- Played 40+ minutes in 28 of them (24.1%)

In 139 career playoff games, Kevin Durant...
- Played 43+ minutes in 46 of them (33.1%)
- Played 40+ minutes in 86 of them (61.9%)

In 98 career playoff games, Russell Westbrook...
- Played 43+ minutes in 16 of them (16.3%)
- Played 40+ minutes in 33 of them (33.7%)

Clearly the older guys played more minutes even in the playoffs than the younger guys. But even the younger guys played 40+ minutes in 1/4 to 1/3 of the games. In big playoff games, I'd totally expect Tatum to play 40+ minutes. Maybe not 43, but 40 anyway. Of course game situation and foul situation has a lot to say about that. If he's played almost the entire game and Boston is up 20 with five minutes left, he's sitting the rest of the way. And if he picks up three fouls in the first quarter, he's sitting a lot. But generally, 40+ minutes for Tatum and Brown in big games is completely reasonable. And in some cases...as many as 43-44.
 

benhogan

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Nov 2, 2007
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In big playoff games, I'd totally expect Tatum to play 40+ minutes. Maybe not 43, but 40 anyway. Of course game situation and foul situation has a lot to say about that. If he's played almost the entire game and Boston is up 20 with five minutes left, he's sitting the rest of the way. And if he picks up three fouls in the first quarter, he's sitting a lot. But generally, 40+ minutes for Tatum and Brown in big games is completely reasonable. And in some cases...as many as 43-44.
Thanks for posting all those past/present "greats" and the minutes they played. Tatum will be part of that group eventually. Good stuff BJ

Tatum has already done 42 minutes in a Game 7 as a scrawny 20yr old vs. LeBron.
I don't think its a leap to predict he'll play 43 minutes as a better, stronger 22yr old.

Agreed, if the game is a blowout or injuries or foul trouble then Brad will expand the rotation in an elimination game.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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The modern game, with its stress on defense, is a lot more strenuous than the 80s game with its emphasis on transition offense.
Its remarkable how much people struggle wrapping their heads around the evolution of NBA basketball. Its not just those clinging to the idea that you need lots of big, strong fours and fives to defend against all the other big, strong fours and fives. Its the idea that you not only can you have players play max minutes but that you should.

The problem is that, save for a few exceptions, the league doesn't have a bunch of Dale and Antonio Davises or 2003 Detroit Pistons mucking up the game and requiring an opposing force down low. Furthermore, pace isn't just up this season - before the shutdown, this season's pace increased at a historic rate.

This excellent article discusses pace and why its been trending up. It also gets at the efficiency of seeking transition scoring versus second chance opportunities - so teams that subscribe to this approach are going to be looking for athleticism and playmaking versus height and strength - as well as the importance of transition defense.

Taken together, the change in pace of the game means its incredibly hard to (a) expect players to play heavy minutes and remain effective and (b) compare players/strategies/performance from the last decade to those who came before. Even the best players of the 80s and 90s might struggle to maintain their production playing the same minutes now than they did during their era, rule changes and conditioning aside.
 

benhogan

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You don't have to bold elimination games. I know we're talking about elimination games. Again, I don't see a reasonable way to have five guys cover four spots by themselves even in an elimination game.
I bolded elimination game since I knew some jackass would take my minutes'/rotation projection out of context

it didn't take very long...probably should have capitalized it also


While LeBron is a freak athlete, he did play all 48 minutes in 2018 ECF Game 7 at the age of 33.
and a collection of 31/32yr olds: JR Smith, Jeff Green and George Hill played 42mins, 42mins, and 38mins respectively, in Cleveland's 18th game of the playoffs that season. Cleveland finished the game on a 16-7 run. Clearly they weren't gassed at the end.

Brown & Tatum at age 23/22 would be perfectly fine playing big minutes and they could each take 1-2 min breaks per half around the quarters in an elimination game.
 
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nighthob

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Jul 15, 2005
12,678
Its remarkable how much people struggle wrapping their heads around the evolution of NBA basketball. Its not just those clinging to the idea that you need lots of big, strong fours and fives to defend against all the other big, strong fours and fives. Its the idea that you not only can you have players play max minutes but that you should.

The problem is that, save for a few exceptions, the league doesn't have a bunch of Dale and Antonio Davises or 2003 Detroit Pistons mucking up the game and requiring an opposing force down low. Furthermore, pace isn't just up this season - before the shutdown, this season's pace increased at a historic rate.

This excellent article discusses pace and why its been trending up. It also gets at the efficiency of seeking transition scoring versus second chance opportunities - so teams that subscribe to this approach are going to be looking for athleticism and playmaking versus height and strength - as well as the importance of transition defense.

Taken together, the change in pace of the game means its incredibly hard to (a) expect players to play heavy minutes and remain effective and (b) compare players/strategies/performance from the last decade to those who came before. Even the best players of the 80s and 90s might struggle to maintain their production playing the same minutes now than they did during their era, rule changes and conditioning aside.
Right, the sort of aggressive transition defense guys need to play these days is light years different than what they did 30-40 years ago. Especially in the postseason, which is why, LeBron aside, you see stars playing a lower percentage of 40 minute playoff games than ever before.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Right, the sort of aggressive transition defense guys need to play these days is light years different than what they did 30-40 years ago. Especially in the postseason, which is why, LeBron aside, you see stars playing a lower percentage of 40 minute playoff games than ever before.
The most amusing thing is if you buy the thesis of the piece I posted, Thibs' defense is cited as one of the main drivers of the increased pace (i.e. offenses adjusted to Thibs connective tissue D) and he is exactly the sort of coach would try to play all his starters 40+ minutes. Its also one of the reasons why he has struggled to keep his seat over the past few years.
 

lovegtm

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I fucking hate when people say shit like this. Should I not have strong opinions? Should I just come in and say, eh maybe Kanter will be good, maybe he won't, who can say? Or, is everyone allowed to have strong opinions but me?

I hate this board sometimes man.
If your strong opinions don’t interact with other views or do much beyond just asserting themselves repeatedly then, yes, everyone is allowed to have strong opinions but you.
 

128

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May 4, 2019
10,016
Its remarkable how much people struggle wrapping their heads around the evolution of NBA basketball. Its not just those clinging to the idea that you need lots of big, strong fours and fives to defend against all the other big, strong fours and fives. Its the idea that you not only can you have players play max minutes but that you should.

The problem is that, save for a few exceptions, the league doesn't have a bunch of Dale and Antonio Davises or 2003 Detroit Pistons mucking up the game and requiring an opposing force down low. Furthermore, pace isn't just up this season - before the shutdown, this season's pace increased at a historic rate.

This excellent article discusses pace and why its been trending up. It also gets at the efficiency of seeking transition scoring versus second chance opportunities - so teams that subscribe to this approach are going to be looking for athleticism and playmaking versus height and strength - as well as the importance of transition defense.

Taken together, the change in pace of the game means its incredibly hard to (a) expect players to play heavy minutes and remain effective and (b) compare players/strategies/performance from the last decade to those who came before. Even the best players of the 80s and 90s might struggle to maintain their production playing the same minutes now than they did during their era, rule changes and conditioning aside.
Quite a headline on that article:

Why NBA Game Pace Is Historicically High

The article itself is excellent.
 
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DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Quite a headline on that article:

Why NBA Game Pace Is Historicically High

The article itself is excellent.
The author has a few more special typos too sprinkled throughout the piece but I thought it summarized the data well. The discussion of the causes and effects makes sense to me as well. Regardless, it illustrates that the minutes players play these days require a lot more exertion given the style of play and the resulting increased number of possessions each game.
 

Smokey Joe

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While there may be an increasing number of possessions these days and increased exertion due to style of play, players also used to chug a 6 pack after the game, take cigarette breaks at half time and spend the off-season selling insurance.
Things have a way of balancing out.
 

mcpickl

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Jul 23, 2007
4,546
If your strong opinions don’t interact with other views or do much beyond just asserting themselves repeatedly then, yes, everyone is allowed to have strong opinions but you.
That's fucked up man.

Also, this position that you subscribed to me...

"However, your position wrt him seems to be "I think he's awful and unplayable in all playoff situations and nothing will change my mind"

is not my position, I've never written or said that, yet I'm the asshole for having the wild opinion that Kanter is a bad defender, can be exploited, and shouldn't be playing 16 minutes a game in the playoffs, as was the theory I first responded to.

I mean, what a crazy, wild and out there opinion.

Yes, I probably shouldn't be allowed to have that opinion on a message board that trades in fucking opinions on the Celtics.

What a joke.
 
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Imbricus

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Jan 26, 2017
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My big question: Where is Kemba's sore knee at? See Celtics Blog Q&A here.

After noting the team has said nothing official, we get:
This time off could go one of two ways. The rest could have done the trick and Walker could be healthy and ready to go. On the flip side, Bojan Bogdanovic of the Utah Jazz was playing through a wrist injury when the season shut down. When he ramped up after the pause, the pain was too much. That’s something Boston will be watching with Walker.

Finally, the compressed schedule to finish this season might be tough for Walker, if the knee soreness is still there, or if it returns. Expect the Celtics to be very cautious with him the rest of the way.
I think the situation could be interesting, and as someone who once suffered with chronic knee pain, I don't assume it's a given at all that he's fine now. Hoping, praying he is, certainly.
 

benhogan

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Nov 2, 2007
20,113
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That's fucked up man.

Also, this position that you subscribed to me...

"However, your position wrt him seems to be "I think he's awful and unplayable in all playoff situations and nothing will change my mind"

is not my position, I've never written or said that, yet I'm the asshole for having the wild opinion that Kanter is a bad defender, can be exploited, and shouldn't be playing 16 minutes a game in the playoffs, as was the theory I first responded to.

I mean, what a crazy, wild and out there opinion.

Yes, I probably shouldn't be allowed to have that opinion on a message board that trades in fucking opinions on the Celtics.

What a joke.
Concern about Kanter's defense is warranted. And I get the pushback on his minutes.

I like what Enes added with the 2nd unit this season + he added a vet presence off the bench. BUT In the same breath if Tatum/Brown/Kemba/Hayward play more playoff minutes then the Celtics would be better served with more defense from the 5.

So I could easily be very wrong about EK seeing 16mpg in the playoffs. I've been very negative on Time Lord recently, but maybe he is finally healthy and steps forward?

Lots of variables, moving parts, permutations which makes it attractive to discuss and speculate on while we wait for the season to restart.

Most everyone around here appreciates strong takes, backed with data, articles from experts, interviews w/coaches, etc etc
 

Kliq

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Mar 31, 2013
22,673
An article I just read said that this season only theee players have scored on an isolation play matched up against Giannis. That is insane. The three players are Julius Randle, Shabaz Napier and Marcus Smart.
 

Imbricus

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Tremont Waters...G League ROY!
Great news. Hope they find a role for him going forward, as things are going to get crowded with all this year's picks. I'm about ready to cut bait with Edwards. Would rather keep Waters.
 

Imbricus

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Next year, he'll have a shot at MVP. He's just too short to play for more than a few minutes a game in the NBA.
Ha! Good line. I'm not sure if that much pessimism is warranted though. He seems to have floor general skills, and has elite/near elite quickness, which is what a short guy needs to succeed in some kind of reserve role. I do think he needs a better, more consistent three-point shot. He doesn't seem to be shy about letting it fly, however.

EDIT: To add this, which I found interesting:
Waters measured out as the shortest player at the combine, going 5 feet, 9½ inches without shoes and 5-10¾ with footwear ...

On the court, Waters was impressive in covering the three-quarter court sprint in 3.06 seconds, which was second among all players. He also tied for third with a running vertical leap of 40½ inches.