2019 Looking at Potential Future QBs

[SMU_Sox]

Unless Danny Etling is the second coming of TB12 we're still potentially in the hunt for an heir apparent to Brady. To me there is no other position more enjoyable to discuss leading up to the draft than QB especially if it is a need. I'm going to transition to linebackers next year and skim the other positions after I am done but I'll always be looking at QBs. We have an expert in @mascho who has already posted his First Sound 2019 video

Mark looked at:

Easton Stick, North Dakota State University, aka Carson Wentz there U. (Mark's Preview)
Drew Lock, Missouri, (Mark's Preview) (Walter Football has him as a 1st rounder - way too early of course but note the buzz)
Ryan Finley, N.C. State, (Mark's Preview) This is another team Belichick has recently spent a lot of time with. WF projects him in rounds 4-6
Brett Rypien, Boise State, (Mark's Preview) He's Rypien the ball today! What a great QB name. Kyle Crabbs also previewed him. WF projects him as a 7-UDFA.

Walter Football is good at collecting rumors. So here are the QBs they heard are getting high end buzz going into 2019 not listed above:

Clayton Thorson, Northwestern, projected round(s): 1-2
Shea Patterson, Michigan, projected round(s): 1-3 He is a junior and just transferred to Michigan. It doesn't matter all that much in the grand scheme of things, I guess, but the Patriots viewed Etling being a transfer who picked up multiple systems as a positive.
Jacob Eason, Washington formerly Georgia, projected rounds: 1-3 He is also a junior who lost a year to injury then his job was taken when he was healthy later in the season who just transferred.
Jarrett Stidham, Auburn, projected round(s): 1-3 He also has another year of eligibility should he want to return. He transferred from Baylor after the scandal hit.

Those are the rest of their first round projected grades. You can see their initial list here. When I find something better than Walter Football as a good resource for who to keep an eye on I will post that. It is as of now the best I have.

Keep in mind that many of these guys will drop off and new names will emerge. This is just to, as Mark says, get a baseline of guys going into this year to look at. That's all. I think something like 1/3 of the names of most way too early mocks last year who came out this year were first round picks another 1/3 picked later and 1/3 not drafted at all.

Who else is on your radar going into the season?

 

[nighthob]

My two guys were/are Thorsen and Eason (despite the fact that his father was the other Tony Eason). Stidham is a close third for me on the wishlist. Which, of course, means that New England will pass on all of them, probably multiple times, and they'll do little at the next level.

 

[mascho]

Thorson video up over at the ITP Youtube page now. I'll be updating with these throughout the offseason/summer.

I've got a list of about 39 QBs to work my way through this summer. Some other names I'll list in here to keep an eye on:

Daniel Jones, Duke (I like what I've seen so far but really needs to speed things up)
Nick Fitzgerald, Miss St. (More Tebow than Mariota right now, but there's potential)
David Blough, Purdue (Undersized, scrappy, "leader" type that is coming off a dislocated ankle and might lose the job, but throws a nice deep ball. Gave a heck of a speech at the B1G Kickoff Luncheon last year too)
Will Grier, WVU (Nice arm, BIG12 offense)
Justin Hebert, Oregon (He's getting serious buzz early)
Taryn Christion, South Dakota State (I like him, NFL probably won't)
Case Cookus, Northern Arizona (Seen him in limited spurts, there's NFL potential)
Eli Dunne, Northern Iowa (NFL arm and size, very raw)
Jake Bentley, South Carolina (Does some NFL stuff already, like anticipation throws and manipulating defenders. He's been put on the fast track to leaving school early too, so another kid to watch)

 

[EL Jeffe]

When I did the ASU vs. Oregon film review on Christian Sam, I came away impressed with Justin Hebert. He checks all the boxes physically; big, strong frame, athletic, good arm strength. Accuracy was spotty (19-35 that game), but flashed a few big-time throws. He's a little raw (started as a true soph last year) but definitely someone I can see skyrocketing up the rankings with a big junior year, particularly if he cleans some things up and improves his accuracy. Some of the things that appealed to teams about Josh Allen will likely make Hebert a popular prospect. I didn't see the monster arm that Allen has (at least for the ASU game) but I came away much more impressed with Hebert than I was with Drew Lock (whose Purdue game I studied for a Bentley film review).

 

[PaulinMyrBch]

Worth mentioning that Grier lit up SEC defenses as a freshman before he got suspended and transferred

 

[bsj]

Eric Dungey

 

[RedOctober3829]

Worth mentioning that Grier lit up SEC defenses as a freshman before he got suspended and transferred

He certainly lit up Tennessee on Saturday.

 

[PaulinMyrBch]

He certainly lit up Tennessee on Saturday.

What was really impressive wasn't so much the throws he made, but the ball placement for the receiver. He missed a few throws early, but once he got rolling, he leads receivers on crossing routes, throws in front of them in the flat, over correct shoulder on go's, etc. It was really impressive. Lots of catches where his receiver never broke stride. I'm not a huge Baker Mayfield fan, but that seems to be his most obvious comp as far as delivering the ball. It will be interesting to see how the year progresses.

 

[tims4wins]

Kyler Murray is going to attend the combine per Schefter

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Murray makes it clear that his future is in football.

It will be interesting to see where he goes. If he was even Mayfield's height, he'd be a top 3 pick, right?

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

On a Locked on Patriots podcast earlier this week, @mascho presented an interesting case for the Pats to consider picking up Nick Mullens from the 49ers. Theory goes that SF has an over-crowded QB room with Jimmy G., Mullens and CJ Beathard, and while Mullens did show a lot of promise last year, a.) Shanahan is allegedly high on Beathard, and b.) now would be a good time to sell high on Mullens. He's had enough of a track record to fetch a good price for a back-up QB, but didn't have so much success/pedigree that any team would be excited about giving him a starting job.

Moreover, Mark continues, Mullen's success in the Shanahan system bodes will for a fit with McDaniels.

The Pats clearly have plenty of draft capital to trade, and Mullens would be very affordable in 2019, and should be affordable in 2020 as well as an exclusive restricted free agent.

 

[heavyde050]

On a Locked on Patriots podcast earlier this week, @mascho presented an interesting case for the Pats to consider picking up Nick Mullens from the 49ers. Theory goes that SF has an over-crowded QB room with Jimmy G., Mullens and CJ Beathard, and while Mullens did show a lot of promise last year, a.) Shanahan is allegedly high on Beathard, and b.) now would be a good time to sell high on Mullens. He's had enough of a track record to fetch a good price for a back-up QB, but didn't have so much success/pedigree that any team would be excited about giving him a starting job.

Moreover, Mark continues, Mullen's success in the Shanahan system bodes will for a fit with McDaniels.

The Pats clearly have plenty of draft capital to trade, and Mullens would be very affordable in 2019, and should be affordable in 2020 as well as an exclusive restricted free agent.

As someone that watched a bunch of 49ers games in person, definitely sign me up for Mullens if the price is right. To be perfectly honest, he made some of the most impressive throws of any 49ers QB last year (not a high bar seeing that Jimmy only played a few games).

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

If you're BB, do you make a play for Josh Rosen and, if so, what's your best offer?

On the one hand, I'm not really fantasizing about spending a lot of resources on the QB position this offseason and getting a guy with only three years left on his rookie deal has some drawbacks.

On the other hand, this could be the best opportunity the Patriots will have to add a Top 10 type talent at the position. It could be a unique buy low opportunity.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

If you're BB, do you make a play for Josh Rosen and, if so, what's your best offer?

On the one hand, I'm not really fantasizing about spending a lot of resources on the QB position this offseason and getting a guy with only three years left on his rookie deal has some drawbacks.

On the other hand, this could be the best opportunity the Patriots will have to add a Top 10 type talent at the position. It could be a unique buy low opportunity.

Depends on the cost, obviously, but according to Peter King, "“Probably a three,” an NFL GM told Peter King of NBC Sports when asked to approximate Rosen’s trade value. “Not what the Cardinals would think his value is.”

If you can get him for a 3rd round pick, I think you gotta do it. The contract/years aren't ideal, but who knows if Brady will last 3 more years. You get to work with him over the next couple seasons to see if you think he's capable of being the guy to take over. The Pats have the picks to get it done.

 

[tims4wins]

Depends on the cost, obviously, but according to Peter King, "“Probably a three,” an NFL GM told Peter King of NBC Sports when asked to approximate Rosen’s trade value. “Not what the Cardinals would think his value is.”

If you can get him for a 3rd round pick, I think you gotta do it. The contract/years aren't ideal, but who knows if Brady will last 3 more years. You get to work with him over the next couple seasons to see if you think he's capable of being the guy to take over. The Pats have the picks to get it done.

I agree - a 3 is worth the chance, especially with the plethora of picks the Pats have. If he busts then he busts. Unless they happen to like someone better that they would take in rounds 1-3.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Depends on the cost, obviously, but according to Peter King, "“Probably a three,” an NFL GM told Peter King of NBC Sports when asked to approximate Rosen’s trade value. “Not what the Cardinals would think his value is.”

If you can get him for a 3rd round pick, I think you gotta do it. The contract/years aren't ideal, but who knows if Brady will last 3 more years. You get to work with him over the next couple seasons to see if you think he's capable of being the guy to take over. The Pats have the picks to get it done.

I agree - a 3 is worth the chance, especially with the plethora of picks the Pats have. If he busts then he busts. Unless they happen to like someone better that they would take in rounds 1-3.

I'm kind of surprised by that quote in the Peter King story. You have him for one year less but last year he was drafted #10 overall and the Cardinals paid a 3rd and 5th to move up from #15. Could his real value be changed that much by having one rough year with some of the worst surrounding talent in NFL history plus a three year contract instead of a four year contract?

I don't have much of a personal opinion of him as a prospect (which is obviously important) but a 3rd seems like a no brainer to me unless you have a really strong reason to dislike him and if you liked him before last year's draft then a 2nd or a 2nd plus a later round pick still seems like a pretty good deal.

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

Depends on the cost, obviously, but according to Peter King, "“Probably a three,” an NFL GM told Peter King of NBC Sports when asked to approximate Rosen’s trade value. “Not what the Cardinals would think his value is.”

If you can get him for a 3rd round pick, I think you gotta do it. The contract/years aren't ideal, but who knows if Brady will last 3 more years. You get to work with him over the next couple seasons to see if you think he's capable of being the guy to take over. The Pats have the picks to get it done.

Bringing back the Mullens idea from above, if Rosen costs a 3rd, does Mullens cost a 4th? A 5th?

If so, I'd go Mullens. Comparing the cap numbers...

[edit: my numbers here were so off it’s kind of comical]

So it's one less year of control... but even granting that if (God willing) Mullens is carrying a clipboard in 2019-20, you wouldn't expect he'd be unaffordable in 2021 even as a back-up.

Does Mullens have less upside than Rosen? Based on reputation, of course. Based on results, I'm not so sure.

[FYI, Hoyer's got a $3M cap number in 2019, half of which is guaranteed. Even including the dead money, taking Mullens to replace Hoyer saves about 900k in 2019, while Rosen would add 2.5M. If I'm doing the math right -- I speak salary cap roughly as well as I speak Tagalog.]

 

[Average Game James]

Bringing back the Mullens idea from above, if Rosen costs a 3rd, does Mullens cost a 4th? A 5th?

If so, I'd go Mullens. Comparing the cap numbers...
2019 -- Mullens 570k, Rosen 4M
2020 -- Mullens ERFA (so 800k?), Rosen 4.8M
2021 -- Mullens FA (??), Rosen 5.6M

So it's one less year of control... but even granting that if (God willing) Mullens is carrying a clipboard in 2019-20, you wouldn't expect he'd be unaffordable in 2021 even as a back-up.

Does Mullens have less upside than Rosen? Based on reputation, of course. Based on results, I'm not so sure.

[FYI, Hoyer's got a $3M cap number in 2019, half of which is guaranteed. Even including the dead money, taking Mullens to replace Hoyer saves about 900k in 2019, while Rosen would add 2.5M. If I'm doing the math right -- I speak salary cap roughly as well as I speak Tagalog.]

Wouldn’t the Pats also have Rosen’s 5th year option? Granted, that only gets exercised in the event Brady retires and Rosen shows enough in practice to leave the team comfortable that he’s the guy. But if Tom decides to go til 44 instead of 45, that actually lines up fairly well as a succession plan...

Edit: Rosen was top 10, so the 5th year option is actually quite expensive. I had in my head he was 11th, which cuts the option cost pretty meaningfully ($21mn this year for top 10 QBs vs. $14mn for 11-32, for context).

 

[SMU_Sox]

If I could get Rosen for a 3rd it wouldn’t even be a question for me. Hell yes I’d trade a 3rd rounder for Rosen who was my QB1 last year. I hope his value is low. To me it shouldn’t be. He was in an awful situation last year.

 

[snowmanny]

They have 32, 56, 64, 74, 97, 101 in the first three rounds. How low would you go? I'd be pretty pleased if they picked up Rosen.

Folks have mentioned NYG and WAS as landing spots. If Giants don't take someone at 6 they also have 37 and that's it; If Washington doesn't take someone at 15, they have 46, 76, 96.

 

[tims4wins]

Want to know why Arizona won’t trade him to the Pats? Because imagine if he actually turns into something good, if not great, on the Pats.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Want to know why Arizona won’t trade him to the Pats? Because imagine if he actually turns into something good, if not great, on the Pats.

Not calling you out but we hear this a lot on twitter and it doesn’t make sense to me. The Pats trade with a lot of teams. Trent Brown just became a starting LT for a draft position swap. So I think some of this is a bit overblown. If the Pats make the best offer they will come away with Rosen. That’s I think the simplest prediction but probably the most rational. When it comes to getting the most for a haul I’d imagine most GMs are rational about it.

 

[tims4wins]

Not calling you out but we hear this a lot on twitter and it doesn’t make sense to me. The Pats trade with a lot of teams. Trent Brown just became a starting LT for a draft position swap. So I think some of this is a bit overblown. If the Pats make the best offer they will come away with Rosen. That’s I think the simplest prediction but probably the most rational. When it comes to getting the most for a haul I’d imagine most GMs are rational about it.

I dunno, the Steelers and Brown seem to differ. QB is a different beast than a 7th round RT.

 

[SMU_Sox]

I dunno, the Steelers and Brown seem to differ. QB is a different beast than a 7th round RT.

Yeah but the Steelers are a direct competitor for the AFC. It’s one thing not to trade to a perennial conference rival or team within the division and another outside of the conference.

 

[snowmanny]

Also if he turns into something for the Patriots it's in 2021 or 2022 0r something. In a way it's the best place to trade him if you're worried about looking bad.

 

[SMU_Sox]

It just seems irrational to me to go for a lesser return because the better return would mean more egg on your face than if the guy turns out to be a stud elsewhere. You’re getting the egg on your face if the guy you traded turns out to be better than the guy you got next. I don’t think the Pats get you another free farm to table egg on your face especially if you are in the AFC East vs NFC West.
Is that even fair? Rosen going to a stable team with talent around him is more of a reason why he would succeed and that’s just an indictment against the situation he was in previously.

 

[tims4wins]

Hope you guys are right and we get a chance to find out!

 

[SMU_Sox]

Hope you guys are right and we get a chance to find out!

Yeah me too man. That is the first thing I’d put money on. $50 to the usual if the Pats end up trading for Rosen from now until the end of the draft.

 

[thehitcat]

Ever since I heard the Steve Keim interview on Sirius NFL Radio I've been obsessing (a bit) over the Pats potentially trading for Rosen. Many thanks to the ITP guys for their site and analysis. I think it's important to remember that Rosen was extremely accurate in college and while he didn't play in an Erhardt/Perkins system he did play in multiple different ones with more focus on a Pro Style his last two seasons. Here are a couple of notes with the links to the appropriate pre-2018 draft pages on ITP.

http://insidethepylon.com/football-101/scouting/2018/04/26/joseph-ferraiolas-2018-nfl-draft-quarterback-rankings/

1. Josh Rosen, University of California Los Angeles, 6-4, 226 pounds

Strengths: Intelligent individual who’s been able to master multiple play books while at UCLA. Excellent mechanics and is the most mechanically sound passer in this class. Displays excellent poise in the pocket. Protects ball with two hands and keeps the ball tight to his chest when he feels the rush approaching. Competitively tough player who stands in and takes a beating to complete passes – example vs. USC 2017. Very good pocket mobility despite reputation for not being the most athletic QB. Tennis background instilled good footwork that translates to how he moves within the pocket. Excellent ability to climb the pocket and to avoid pressure from arcing EDGE rushers. Somewhat mobile outside of the pocket and displays ability to square his shoulders and reset his base. The best pure processor of coverages in this class. Excellent use of eyes to manipulate defensive backs. Excellent arm talent displaying great velocity and touch on his passes. Ball explodes out his hand with nice spin. Excellent anticipation to see throwing windows open and have his pass arrive on time. Rare level of accuracy and ball placement to all levels of the field. Displays a high percentage of completions in the middle of the field. Very good arm strength to test defenses deep. Doesn’t get enough credit for his situational awareness and how get can lead his team from behind. Example – vs. Texas A&M 2017. Shows a high level of competitiveness and leadership.

Weaknesses: Concussions are concerning as he’s already had a few in his career. Not going to keep a defensive coordinator awake at night because of his ability to run. Risks some passes into tight windows that you’d rather see him show restraint on.

One- to Three- Year Projection: Immediate starter who’s going to make his fair share of mistakes in year one. Will develop into a very good franchise quarterback. A top 10 quarterback by his third year in the NFL because of his mental processing ability to read coverages and competitiveness.

Scheme Fit: Scheme diverse – would thrive in West Coast/Air Raid hybrid, but also has the timing component to succeed in an Erhardt-Perkins offense.

Draft Grade: 1st Round – 1st Overall Selection

http://insidethepylon.com/nfl/2018-nfl-draft/2018/04/23/mark-schofields-top-5-2018-quarterback-prospects/

1. Josh Rosen, UCLA
From the time he arrived on UCLA’s campus, Josh Rosen was viewed as an eventual first-round draft pick at the quarterback position. However, the road to that moment has been filled with twists and turns. Rosen suffered multiple injuries at UCLA, including a history of concussions and a shoulder injury that prematurely ended his 2016 season. In addition, he has been plagued by some questions about his commitment to the game, and his interests away from the field. Yet if you strip all that away, you find in my opinion the best quarterback in this class from a trait-based perspective.

Strengths: Rosen is a multiple-year starter in an offense that shifted from a more spread style of attack when he was a freshman to a more “pro-style” offense the past two seasons, which featured him operating under center, using deep drops off of play-action fakes, and a hybrid of West Coast and Erhardt-Perkins concepts. Rosen is very clean mechanically, with a crisp release and throwing motion, and gets the ball out quickly once he has made a determination. The structure to his drops does need a little work, but overall his footwork is very solid, which is to be expected given his background as a tennis player. He might not be able to escape and extend as a runner, but he can slide and move in the pocket and can evade free rushers from time to time.

From an arm strength perspective Rosen has more than enough to function in any offensive system, he can deliver throws to all levels of the field with velocity and accuracy. He shows a good understanding of route concepts and how to attack various defenses, and is able to exploit blitzes as well as rotations in coverage even right at the snap. There are times when he seems to get flustered in the pocket against pressure, but his film does have many examples of him also thriving in the chaos around him and not letting pressure or trash at his feet impact his throw, placement or decision-making.

Processing speed is a plus with him, and Rosen can make full-field reads even when pressure is closing in, and he shows the ability to speed up his internal clock in those situations. When forced out of the pocket or off-platform, he can still deliver strong, accurate throws to all levels of the fiel. Functional athleticism, so he can be utilized on rollouts or in the boot-action passing game, but that is not his strongest trait as a passer.

Weaknesses: Much of the concern over Rosen seems to stem from more off-the-field concerns. He’s been injured, with a shoulder injury as well as a history of concussions. He has interests away from the game of football. He is just using football to make money. He’s a millennial. For me, those issues do not play a large role in his evaluation.

That is not to say that he is without flaws as a quarterback. At times his response to pressure is not as confident and quick as you might hope for in a veteran passer. As stated, he lacks the athleticism of other passers so he might not be able to create as well as a Darnold or a Jackson outside of the pocket. Studying his interceptions this season I did not see a lot of repeated mistakes, but I did see some throws that were poorly-placed (the interception on the deep out route against Arizona) and a number of situations where he and the receiver were not on the same page. Perhaps that is on his teammate…perhaps not. But in the end, for me, he’s the cleanest QB between the lines.

Scheme Fit: Rosen is the most scheme-diverse quarterback in this group. He can operate a downfield passing offense, he can deliver throws on time and rhythm in an Erhardt-Perkins system, and he has the processing speed to work in an West Coast offense. If there is a schematic weaknesses to him, it might be that he isn’t the best fit for an offense that will feature a ton of spread/RPO designs, but that is a small sliver of teams right now.

One- and Three-Year Projection: Rosen can start as a rookie, and by his third season he should be solidly in the middle tier of starting QBs in the NFL and trending upward.

Draft Grade and Round Projection: 1st Round (Top 5) – 1st Round (Top 5). I know there is talk of him sliding, but I just can’t believe that a QB of his caliber will fall. I’ll believe it when I see it. Now, if he does, watch out for a certain team with two first round picks and perhaps the draft capital to get up to the 9th spot in a trade with the San Francisco 49ers…

Teams to Watch: Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, New York Giants, New England Patriots

 

[dcmissle]

The NYG mention is funny because the team seems so hell bent on not disturbing even a single hair on Eli Manning’s head.

I don’t think the Eagles worried for a minute about Foles going there. (Re cap space — see https://www.google.com/amp/s/247sports.com/nfl/new-york-giants/LongFormArticle/Giants-2019-Salary-Cap-Outlook-free-agency-128259322/Amp/)

Rosen, cheap against the cap, would be an enormous headache for them. What if he plays well, Eli poorly, and so forth? Until I see evidence to the contrary, I think the NYG want no part of this.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I'd trade a second for Rosen without hesitation. He has the potential to be a good NFL QB, and he's absurdly cheap.. The numbers upthread are wrong as those don't take out the signing bonus which doesn't travel with him. His deal for the acquiring team is...

2019— just under 1.3M
2020- about 2.1M
2021- about 2.9M
2022- 5th year option

That's a really attractive contract to get an intriguing young QB on at only the cost of a late 2nd. I don't think he gets traded for that, but if it is an option that's a nice deal.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I'd trade a second for Rosen without hesitation. He has the potential to be a good NFL QB, and he's absurdly cheap.. The numbers upthread are wrong as those don't take out the signing bonus which doesn't travel with him. His deal for the acquiring team is...

2019— just under 1.3M
2020- about 2.1M
2021- about 2.9M
2022- 5th year option

That's a really attractive contract to get an intriguing young QB on at only the cost of a late 2nd. I don't think he gets traded for that, but if it is an option that's a nice deal.

Its also worth noting that these numbers are not just cheap in absolute terms but also quite cheap relative to what you're going to pay a veteran backup QB who could do a non-disastrous job filling in for Brady in case of emergency, which is something the team will need in any case over this time period unless they really believe in Etling. Hoyer - who would almost certainly get cut after a Rosen acquisition - has a $3M cap hit for 2019.

 

[DJnVa]

Got CBS Sports notification that Pats were at Will Grier’s workout that supposedly went very well and Pats are set to meet with him again before draft. Grier said that WV incorporated some of NE’s concepts.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

It still feels like a Rosen shoe might drop (for whichever team) in the next 24 hours. Maybe AZ has been planning to keep him and draft Bosa all along. But assuming that they're taking Murray, it just doesn't make sense to wait to trade Rosen until after the draft. At that point, the number of potential suitors will have greatly diminished (as many teams have picked QBs in the first few rounds) and the draft compensation you can acquire only helps starting in 2020, which isn't ideal if you're Kliff Kingsbury, your team has a ton of needs, and you know that you've probably got 2-3 years to show some real improvement.

Arizona might not be happy with the offers they've received for Rosen but I don't really see how those offers are going to get better. Any QB-needy team taht doesn't pick a QB Thursday or Friday is probably just planning on tanking with an eye toward the 2020 QB class anyway (hello Miami).

 

[amfox1]

I'd like to see NE offer #73 and #243 for Rosen. I'd rather have four years of Rosen for that price than five years of Jones or Grier or four years of Finley/Rypien/etc.

 

[Plantiers Wart]

Unless you are a team that doesn’t get your qb. A late first might still come