I know the season isn't over yet, and this thread is better left for when it is, but screw it. I needed a diversion from thinking about the blown opportunity against Miami.
So with that being said, I figured it would be interesting to hear the draft guru's take on the 2019 class one season out. Were your takes right? What surprised or disappointed you? For me, I really liked the class haul at the time. I was so high on Stidham (more on him later) that he alone made the class a success for me. I liked the mix of plug-and-play types and redshirt development guys. Now one year out, I feel pretty much the same. I think this was one of NE's best classes of the Belichick era.
1) N'Keal Harry: This was actually the pick I least liked at the time. My receipts on Harry are in the 2019 prospect thread; I felt like he was an easy evaluation as a 3rd rounder who'd go in the 2nd based on size and production. He ended up going #32, and the good and the bad have certainly shown up this season. I don't think Harry will ever be a featured receiver; he simply lacks the explosive burst and suddenness in and out of his breaks to consistently beat man coverage. Every traditional route is a contested catch with him. He'll win some based on size, hands, ball skills and catch radius - but it's really hard to make a living on contested catches. I think he's always going to be a guy who you'll need to manufacture touches for: jet sweeps, tear screens, etc. He'll win some jump balls and back shoulder throws, but he's just never open. The good news is that he's really good with the ball in his hands. He's also as good of a blocker as I expected. I don't see him as a bust; I think he has enough value to be a quality weapon. I just don't see him ever being a focal point of an NFL offense. I much preferred Paris Campbell and Deebo Samuel; Campbell had a lost year with injuries and Deebo has looked great in SF.
2) Joejuan Williams: I liked the pick at the time. I thought he'd be an excellent jam/press corner in the NFL.His long speed is marginal, but his change of direction is impressive for a 6'4" 220# corner. There were mixed reports out of camp, but I thought he looked good in the preseason games. He hasn't played a ton in the regular season, but when he has, he's held his own. He was matched up against a pretty good receiver in Gallup in the Dallas game and Prescott never went his way once. He hasn't looked out of place on the kickoff coverage unit, which helps his cause for playing time. I imagine he takes Jason McCourty's role next year; anything less would be a concern for a 2nd rounder. There were rumblings that they strongly considered Williams at #32 last year, so I have to believe they have bigger plans for him.
3) Chase Winovich: Another player I felt was like a pretty easy evaluation. I liked the player but didn't think he was a clean scheme fit for NE; but I was happy with the pick. He's filled the role I envisioned: situational pass rusher and core special teams. His rush skills have been solid; he'll get overaggressive and lose contain at times, but he has great hands and a quick get-off. He's been better against the run than I thought and he's been able to stack and shed at a better level than I anticipated. Still, Calhoun played with better power and did a better job of setting an edge. I think Wino is 24 and I imagine he's fairly maxed out physically. I don't know how much upside is left with him, but he's definitely a win for a 3rd round pick.
3) Damien Harris: He seemed like a luxury pick at the time (no clear role for him) but I liked the player. 5* high school player who won - and kept - a job at the most competitive program in CFB. Granted Josh Jacobs took some of his thunder away their final year, but there was a lot to like with Harris. He impressed in his preseason opportunities, but as expected, he essentially never saw the field with too many guys ahead of him (and healthy RBs all season). If Burkhead comes back next year, it's hard to see where Harris fits in. I personally think he has a higher ceiling than Sony: better burst, more natural in the passing game. However, I'm not sure a healthy Sony loses that job. I think he can certainly be a starting NFL RB, I'm just not sure if he'll get the opportunity here.
3) Yodny Cajuste: I liked him as a developmental player. Physically, he looks exactly like you want a LT to look. I really liked his pass pro at WVU but thought he really struggled pulling and 2nd level blocking. I expect that these are fixable issues with him, but time will tell. My understanding of his injury situation was that it wasn't supposed to be a season long IR issue. I'm not sure if recovery didn't go as expected or they just planned to redshirt him from the start. I'm hopeful he's at least the swing OT next year, and maybe best case gives Cannon a legit challenge for RT (but I still expect Cannon to hold that job). He has a high degree of boom-or-bust, but that's the type of prospect you want to gamble on when you have three 3rd round picks. Legit starting OTs are hard to come by, so I'm still good with this pick.
4) Hjalte Froholdt: I hadn't done any film review on Froholdt prior to the draft, so I didn't have much to go on. After the draft I went and watched his Alabama game and he really did handle himself well against Q. Williams. He had an up and down preseason, but was clearly well behind Karras...then he got hurt and that was that. Thuney and Karras are both UFAs, so there's definitely a potential opening to be had (my guess is Thuney walks for a big money deal the Pats can't afford). He showed enough flashes that I think he has an NFL future. Really nice size, aggressive, and reasonably athletic. For a 4th round pick, he's shown me enough to be okay with the pick.
4) Jarrett Stidham: My guy. My receipts on Stidham are also in the draft forum; I thought he was the most undervalued player in the draft. I genuinely saw him as a 1st round QB talent who was victim of a terrible offensive system. He was a blue chip HS recruit who saw the field at Baylor as a true freshman and completed 69% of his passes with a 12-2 TD/INT ratio. Had the Baylor program not imploded, I fully believe he would have gone on to put up Baker Mayfield/Joe Burrow type video game stats. But...the Baylor program imploded and he made his way to Auburn, where he was stuck in a terrible offense for two years. The traits were all there though, if you could look beyond play designs. I know Jim Nagy was - and has been - all-in on Stidham as a starting NFL QB. I went back last week and re-watched every preseason throw by Stidham - just super impressive stuff. If he'd been a 1st round QB, and that was his preseason performance, I don't think anyone would have been disappointed. There was recent article indicating that he's continued to look very impressive in practice, so we'll see what the future holds here. I loved the pick at the time, and I love it now. I'll drive the Stidham bandwagon until it falls off a cliff.
5) Byron Cowart: I liked the pick and his positional versatility. He was never going to live up to his HS press clippings, but he looks like a rotational DL. He had a nice preseason, but very limited regular season time. He'll have an opportunity for a role next season. Physical and aggressive, but at 6'3, 300# he's not terribly long and he's not very sudden. For a late 5th round, it's hard to complain about this one.
5) Jake Bailey: I thought it was funny that they traded up for a punter (overpaid, based on the valuation charts) but Bailey has acquitted himself well. He'll shank one every now and then, but his kickoffs have been very good and he's punted well. His FG holds in preseason weren't great, but he fixed the problem. Good pick.
7) Ken Webster: I liked him as a size/speed DB with good special teams potential. There were just too many guys ahead of him in NE and you can't just Foxboro Flu every guy you'd like to keep. I'm not surprised Miami picked him up; he actually started five games for them before getting hurt. He would have been an ideal practice squad candidate, but Flores was intent on taking as many developmental Patriots as he could (and I can't blame him).
So with that being said, I figured it would be interesting to hear the draft guru's take on the 2019 class one season out. Were your takes right? What surprised or disappointed you? For me, I really liked the class haul at the time. I was so high on Stidham (more on him later) that he alone made the class a success for me. I liked the mix of plug-and-play types and redshirt development guys. Now one year out, I feel pretty much the same. I think this was one of NE's best classes of the Belichick era.
1) N'Keal Harry: This was actually the pick I least liked at the time. My receipts on Harry are in the 2019 prospect thread; I felt like he was an easy evaluation as a 3rd rounder who'd go in the 2nd based on size and production. He ended up going #32, and the good and the bad have certainly shown up this season. I don't think Harry will ever be a featured receiver; he simply lacks the explosive burst and suddenness in and out of his breaks to consistently beat man coverage. Every traditional route is a contested catch with him. He'll win some based on size, hands, ball skills and catch radius - but it's really hard to make a living on contested catches. I think he's always going to be a guy who you'll need to manufacture touches for: jet sweeps, tear screens, etc. He'll win some jump balls and back shoulder throws, but he's just never open. The good news is that he's really good with the ball in his hands. He's also as good of a blocker as I expected. I don't see him as a bust; I think he has enough value to be a quality weapon. I just don't see him ever being a focal point of an NFL offense. I much preferred Paris Campbell and Deebo Samuel; Campbell had a lost year with injuries and Deebo has looked great in SF.
2) Joejuan Williams: I liked the pick at the time. I thought he'd be an excellent jam/press corner in the NFL.His long speed is marginal, but his change of direction is impressive for a 6'4" 220# corner. There were mixed reports out of camp, but I thought he looked good in the preseason games. He hasn't played a ton in the regular season, but when he has, he's held his own. He was matched up against a pretty good receiver in Gallup in the Dallas game and Prescott never went his way once. He hasn't looked out of place on the kickoff coverage unit, which helps his cause for playing time. I imagine he takes Jason McCourty's role next year; anything less would be a concern for a 2nd rounder. There were rumblings that they strongly considered Williams at #32 last year, so I have to believe they have bigger plans for him.
3) Chase Winovich: Another player I felt was like a pretty easy evaluation. I liked the player but didn't think he was a clean scheme fit for NE; but I was happy with the pick. He's filled the role I envisioned: situational pass rusher and core special teams. His rush skills have been solid; he'll get overaggressive and lose contain at times, but he has great hands and a quick get-off. He's been better against the run than I thought and he's been able to stack and shed at a better level than I anticipated. Still, Calhoun played with better power and did a better job of setting an edge. I think Wino is 24 and I imagine he's fairly maxed out physically. I don't know how much upside is left with him, but he's definitely a win for a 3rd round pick.
3) Damien Harris: He seemed like a luxury pick at the time (no clear role for him) but I liked the player. 5* high school player who won - and kept - a job at the most competitive program in CFB. Granted Josh Jacobs took some of his thunder away their final year, but there was a lot to like with Harris. He impressed in his preseason opportunities, but as expected, he essentially never saw the field with too many guys ahead of him (and healthy RBs all season). If Burkhead comes back next year, it's hard to see where Harris fits in. I personally think he has a higher ceiling than Sony: better burst, more natural in the passing game. However, I'm not sure a healthy Sony loses that job. I think he can certainly be a starting NFL RB, I'm just not sure if he'll get the opportunity here.
3) Yodny Cajuste: I liked him as a developmental player. Physically, he looks exactly like you want a LT to look. I really liked his pass pro at WVU but thought he really struggled pulling and 2nd level blocking. I expect that these are fixable issues with him, but time will tell. My understanding of his injury situation was that it wasn't supposed to be a season long IR issue. I'm not sure if recovery didn't go as expected or they just planned to redshirt him from the start. I'm hopeful he's at least the swing OT next year, and maybe best case gives Cannon a legit challenge for RT (but I still expect Cannon to hold that job). He has a high degree of boom-or-bust, but that's the type of prospect you want to gamble on when you have three 3rd round picks. Legit starting OTs are hard to come by, so I'm still good with this pick.
4) Hjalte Froholdt: I hadn't done any film review on Froholdt prior to the draft, so I didn't have much to go on. After the draft I went and watched his Alabama game and he really did handle himself well against Q. Williams. He had an up and down preseason, but was clearly well behind Karras...then he got hurt and that was that. Thuney and Karras are both UFAs, so there's definitely a potential opening to be had (my guess is Thuney walks for a big money deal the Pats can't afford). He showed enough flashes that I think he has an NFL future. Really nice size, aggressive, and reasonably athletic. For a 4th round pick, he's shown me enough to be okay with the pick.
4) Jarrett Stidham: My guy. My receipts on Stidham are also in the draft forum; I thought he was the most undervalued player in the draft. I genuinely saw him as a 1st round QB talent who was victim of a terrible offensive system. He was a blue chip HS recruit who saw the field at Baylor as a true freshman and completed 69% of his passes with a 12-2 TD/INT ratio. Had the Baylor program not imploded, I fully believe he would have gone on to put up Baker Mayfield/Joe Burrow type video game stats. But...the Baylor program imploded and he made his way to Auburn, where he was stuck in a terrible offense for two years. The traits were all there though, if you could look beyond play designs. I know Jim Nagy was - and has been - all-in on Stidham as a starting NFL QB. I went back last week and re-watched every preseason throw by Stidham - just super impressive stuff. If he'd been a 1st round QB, and that was his preseason performance, I don't think anyone would have been disappointed. There was recent article indicating that he's continued to look very impressive in practice, so we'll see what the future holds here. I loved the pick at the time, and I love it now. I'll drive the Stidham bandwagon until it falls off a cliff.
5) Byron Cowart: I liked the pick and his positional versatility. He was never going to live up to his HS press clippings, but he looks like a rotational DL. He had a nice preseason, but very limited regular season time. He'll have an opportunity for a role next season. Physical and aggressive, but at 6'3, 300# he's not terribly long and he's not very sudden. For a late 5th round, it's hard to complain about this one.
5) Jake Bailey: I thought it was funny that they traded up for a punter (overpaid, based on the valuation charts) but Bailey has acquitted himself well. He'll shank one every now and then, but his kickoffs have been very good and he's punted well. His FG holds in preseason weren't great, but he fixed the problem. Good pick.
7) Ken Webster: I liked him as a size/speed DB with good special teams potential. There were just too many guys ahead of him in NE and you can't just Foxboro Flu every guy you'd like to keep. I'm not surprised Miami picked him up; he actually started five games for them before getting hurt. He would have been an ideal practice squad candidate, but Flores was intent on taking as many developmental Patriots as he could (and I can't blame him).
