2019 Patriots: Post-SB Roster Thread

tims4wins

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Yes.

Because Bill isn't a fucking moron like Mike Felger, we're in contention every damn year and win way more than our share.
How many times have we heard "they need to GFIN". Well if they had gone for it now in a given year, they wouldn't have been back in 2016, and 2017, and 2018...
 

rodderick

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But why is trading for Beckham a GFIN now move? His contract wouldn't be untenable and Bill has given out top dollar for outside free agents before (Colvin, Thomas, Gilmore for instance).
 

tims4wins

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But why is trading for Beckham a GFIN now move? His contract wouldn't be untenable and Bill has given out top dollar for outside free agents before (Colvin, Thomas, Gilmore for instance).
Not saying it is. Just addressing the cap is crap comment.
 

mcpickl

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I think the only Michael Felgerism I've ever agreed with is that the salary cap is (mostly) a myth.

If the opportunity was out there for the Pats to actually get OBJ, and they placed value on getting him and signing Flowers, I'm sure they could do so quite easily. Cutting or restructuring Cannon Allen Claymore is about as easy as it gets.

The only difficulty lies in whether or not Gronk / McCourty and their respective cap hits are coming back or can be restructured if they do.

That said it remains unlikely given the holes the team has at various positions.
He's, of course, wrong. As always.

So, let's say the Patriots do what you said and cut Cannon, Allen and Clayborn. You probably still don't have enough space for both Flowers and OBJ. Also, you have no starting offensive tackles, no money to sign your draft class, no money to sign any other free agents, and no money that you need going into next season(usually in the 8-10M range) for in-season expenses. Also, you just brought in a receiver bringing home 17M in cash this season while Julian Edelman will bring home a max of 3M. You going to adjust Julians' contract or is he cool making less than 20% what OBJ will.

Call in and ask Felger what to do.
 
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bankshot1

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"I don't know," Beckham said when he was asked if there was an issue at quarterback. "Like I said, I feel like he's not going to get out the pocket. He's not -- we know Eli's not running it. But is it a matter of time issue? Can he still throw it, yeah, but it's been pretty safe and it's been, you know ... cool catching shallow [routes] and trying to take it to the house. But I'm, you know, I want to go over the top of somebody."

How long would it take for him to throw the GOAT under his Bentley?

pass.
 

bagwell1

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I am not going to say the salary cap is a "myth" as eventually it catches up to you but the Pats could easily sign anyone they want without cutting anybody. They have a ton of cap room in 2020 so just using signing bonus, 2019 salary minimums, and shifting salary guarantees to 2020 can make the 2019 cap hits for free agent signings a joke.

There are several existing players where you could do restructures or just convert 2019 salary to signing bonus to free up a ton of additional 19 cap room as well.

Flowers and OBJ? That would be about as easy as it gets. (not saying they should do it)
 

rodderick

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"I don't know," Beckham said when he was asked if there was an issue at quarterback. "Like I said, I feel like he's not going to get out the pocket. He's not -- we know Eli's not running it. But is it a matter of time issue? Can he still throw it, yeah, but it's been pretty safe and it's been, you know ... cool catching shallow [routes] and trying to take it to the house. But I'm, you know, I want to go over the top of somebody."

How long would it take for him to throw the GOAT under his Bentley?

pass.
Depends, how long until Brady is performing at current Eli Manning levels?
 

BigSoxFan

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"I don't know," Beckham said when he was asked if there was an issue at quarterback. "Like I said, I feel like he's not going to get out the pocket. He's not -- we know Eli's not running it. But is it a matter of time issue? Can he still throw it, yeah, but it's been pretty safe and it's been, you know ... cool catching shallow [routes] and trying to take it to the house. But I'm, you know, I want to go over the top of somebody."

How long would it take for him to throw the GOAT under his Bentley?

pass.
I’m confident he wouldn’t trash Brady like the other garbage QB he’s forced to play with.
 

5dice

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Its not about Gump’s play versus Tom’s and whether that makes it ok. Its about having the good sense to not trash the leader of your team or even damn him with faint praise. What good could have possibly come of it? Gump would suddenly play better and simultaneously get Beckham 12 balls a game and crazy winning would suddenly ensue? Otherwise, what did he see happening by openly talking like that?
 

rodderick

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Its not about Gump’s play versus Tom’s and whether that makes it ok. Its about having the good sense to not trash the leader of your team or even damn him with faint praise. What good could have possibly come of it? Gump would suddenly play better and simultaneously get Beckham 12 balls a game and crazy winning would suddenly ensue? Otherwise, what did he see happening by openly talking like that?
I was joking, but guys can slip up without it being something to worry about. Peyton threw both his kicker and OL under the bus on a much harsher manner than that, and I don't recall there being any worries about him being locker room poison. Obviously it's not ideal, but I don't think it's that concerning either, to be honest.
 

BigSoxFan

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Its not about Gump’s play versus Tom’s and whether that makes it ok. Its about having the good sense to not trash the leader of your team or even damn him with faint praise. What good could have possibly come of it? Gump would suddenly play better and simultaneously get Beckham 12 balls a game and crazy winning would suddenly ensue? Otherwise, what did he see happening by openly talking like that?
He needs to mature. I am willing to put faith in the Patriots organization to help facilitate that maturation process. Basically, if the Pats are ok with OBJ, then I will be.

However, I remain unconvinced that they would commit the resources needed to make it happen, both in terms of draft capital and salary cap space.
 

bankshot1

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OBJ is a me-me guy. I thought the Giants should have traded him last year, get some draft picks and start to rebuild, but instead gave him a massive contract. And almost immediately the guy was unhappy. The Pats have several needs but don't need that headache. And IMO they don't have the excess draft capital to piss away for a guy making $20MM who really wants to be in LA.

Fuck OBJ.
 

dcmissle

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mcpickl

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I am not going to say the salary cap is a "myth" as eventually it catches up to you but the Pats could easily sign anyone they want without cutting anybody. They have a ton of cap room in 2020 so just using signing bonus, 2019 salary minimums, and shifting salary guarantees to 2020 can make the 2019 cap hits for free agent signings a joke.

There are several existing players where you could do restructures or just convert 2019 salary to signing bonus to free up a ton of additional 19 cap room as well.

Flowers and OBJ? That would be about as easy as it gets. (not saying they should do it)
There really isn't.

The only way to get a significant savings from a restructuring converting salary to a bonus is on your high salaried guys on multi-year deals. Of the Patriots 5 highest salaries, three of them in Brady, Devin and Gronk, are in the final years of their deals so it doesn't work with them. Hightower only has one year left after this one, so even if you converted the most you could it would only save 3M this year and would leave you in a tough spot next year where you'd probably have to cut him and have a dead cap charge of 5.5M. Gilmore is the only guy they have where converting salary to bonus would give them a significant cap savings this year, but they already did that with him last year so his cap hits will swell through the roof in 2020 and 2021 if they do it again.

There just isn't a lot of wiggle room to push their cap hits into future years to save money this year, even a Brady extension won't save a ton because he's got 12M in previously paid bonuses on this season. Their major savings will come from cuts, or threats of being cut, not pushing off cap hits from their highest paid players.

Flowers and OBJ? Definitely won't be as easy as it gets.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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They will save about $7 million with Dwayne Allen. I imagine they will may do another conversion with Gilmore to get another $2 to $3 million in cap relief. They may do something with DMac to get a few million by extending him.

But, yeah, there’s nothing to be done with Brady at this point. Unless of course he’s willing to do a one year extension at a very favorable discount. Like if he took $20 million in new money plus converted some of his salary you could save about $7 million this year and postpone the $27 million hit to next year. But I don’t think he would go that far undermarket. Maybe. I think with a 42 year old you are essentially at year to year. Take the $27m hit now. They kicked the can down the path as far as they could. It’s time to take the medicine.
 

bagwell1

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There really isn't.

The only way to get a significant savings from a restructuring converting salary to a bonus is on your high salaried guys on multi-year deals. Of the Patriots 5 highest salaries, three of them in Brady, Devin and Gronk, are in the final years of their deals so it doesn't work with them. Hightower only has one year left after this one, so even if you converted the most you could it would only save 3M this year and would leave you in a tough spot next year where you'd probably have to cut him and have a dead cap charge of 5.5M. Gilmore is the only guy they have where converting salary to bonus would give them a significant cap savings this year, but they already did that with him last year so his cap hits will swell through the roof in 2020 and 2021 if they do it again.

There just isn't a lot of wiggle room to push their cap hits into future years to save money this year, even a Brady extension won't save a ton because he's got 12M in previously paid bonuses on this season. Their major savings will come from cuts, or threats of being cut, not pushing off cap hits from their highest paid players.

Flowers and OBJ? Definitely won't be as easy as it gets.
I want no part of OBJ and am not saying it is the prudent thing to do long term wise, but if you are just talking about creating 2019 cap room it is a joke. What do you think a flowers contract is going to look like? 5/95? That can be a 2019 hit of only 5 million without even trying. Hell, just redo Allen (obviously he will be cut if he doesn't do something) and that takes care of that with some to spare.

I don't think you are appreciating what can be accomplished with extensions if you really want cap room for 2019. Once again, I am not saying it is smart and I am not saying it couldn't negatively impact future years. But it is easy....easy like Sunday morning...........
 
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mcpickl

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I want no part of OBJ and am not saying it is the prudent thing to do long term wise, but if you are just talking about creating 2019 cap room it is a joke. What do you think a flowers contract is going to look like? 5/95? That can be a 2019 hit of only 5 million without even trying. Hell, just redo Allen (obviously he will be cut if he doesn't do something) and that takes care of that with some to spare.

I don't think you are appreciating would can be accomplished with extensions if you really want cap room for 2019. Once again, I am not saying it is smart and I am not saying it couldn't negatively impact future years. But it is easy....easy like Sunday morning...........
I understand very well how extensions work, you on the other hand, if you think Flowers is going to sign for 5/95 and have a cap hit of 5M in 2019...I don't know what to say.

Try the exercise on your own. Cut the Dwayne Allen types, try to make up some fake reasonable restructures, and find room for Odell at 17M, Flowers at a realistic number(psst not 5M), leave room to find replacements for the guys you cut and will lose in free agency, don't forget you have to sign your draft class, and have at least 8M leftover for in season expenses.

Show me how easy your Sunday morning is rather than just throwing out Felgerisms about how they can just sign anyone they want.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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I know you can make the math work. McNoodle it for longer than a minute.
Seriously, how? Show your work.

Gilmore, Brady, Gronk, DMac, and Jones alone are $17 million more on the cap than last year. Even with restructures of Gilmore and DMac you aren’t close to making that up.

On the other side, there are only two players on the team where their replacements are likely to be significantly cheaper than their cap hits last year — Gostkowski and D Allen. Everyone else is a $500k issue at best.

We lose two major starters to free agency who were incredible bargains in Flowers and Brown.

Where is the money coming from?
 

Ed Hillel

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Here’s an easy one: Brady missed his LTBE 5 million dollar incentives this year, so that’s 5 million added right away. I don’t believe that’s included in Sportrac’s free space number, but could be wrong. I’m sure there are a few other incentives added/lost, but nothing that big. Other options:

- An inevitable Brady extension likely saves another 6-7 million.

- McCourty either restructures or is flat out cut. He’s not going to be counting 13.5 million against the cap. They’ll find a cheaper replacement if need be. Cut saves 9.5 million.

- Cut player number 94, saves 4 million. Easily replaceable because he mostly sucks.

- Cut Ebner, saves 2 million. Seems likely to me.

- Cut Brian Hoyer, roll with Etling and new draft pick? I doubt Hoyer’s giving anyone much of anything at this point, but I could easily see BB just keeping him. Only save 1.5 million cutting him.


- Love the guy, and he played well in the SB, but is Slater really that good anymore? Cutting him saves 2.5 million. I’d guess restructure, but a cut wouldn’t surprise me.

Cannon - I have this sinking suspicion they sign Brown and trade Cannon in a shocker. Seems like the perfect time to maximize Cannon’s value before his dropoff. That “saves” 4.5 million, though Brown’s extension would obviously offset that.

- Gronk...I dunno. Even if he doesn’t retire, is BB keeping him around when cutting him saves 10 million?

Obviously there are holes to fill if people are cut/moved/retire, but there are plenty of options for BB here to save some money.
 

mcpickl

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Here’s an easy one: Brady missed his LTBE 5 million dollar incentives this year, so that’s 5 million added right away. I don’t believe that’s included in Sportrac’s free space number, but could be wrong. I’m sure there are a few other incentives added/lost, but nothing that big. Other options:

- An inevitable Brady extension likely saves another 6-7 million.

- McCourty either restructures or is flat out cut. He’s not going to be counting 13.5 million against the cap. They’ll find a cheaper replacement if need be. Cut saves 9.5 million.

- Cut player number 94, saves 4 million. Easily replaceable because he mostly sucks.

- Cut Ebner, saves 2 million. Seems likely to me.

- Cut Brian Hoyer, roll with Etling and new draft pick? I doubt Hoyer’s giving anyone much of anything at this point, but I could easily see BB just keeping him. Only save 1.5 million cutting him.


- Love the guy, and he played well in the SB, but is Slater really that good anymore? Cutting him saves 2.5 million. I’d guess restructure, but a cut wouldn’t surprise me.

Cannon - I have this sinking suspicion they sign Brown and trade Cannon in a shocker. Seems like the perfect time to maximize Cannon’s value before his dropoff. That “saves” 4.5 million, though Brown’s extension would obviously offset that.

- Gronk...I dunno. Even if he doesn’t retire, is BB keeping him around when cutting him saves 10 million?

Obviously there are holes to fill if people are cut/moved/retire, but there are plenty of options for BB here to save some money.
Brady missed incentives are already counted in their current cap space.
Inevitable Brady extension probably doesn't save much because 12M of his current hit is locked in from previous bonuses.
Sure, you can cut Devin, saves a little less than 9M(gotta account for a minimum salary replacing him), now need a starting safety
Cut Clayborn, saves a bit less than 3.5M
Cut Ebner and Slater, people always want to dump STs, saves about 3M total, now need two core STs
Cut Hoyer, 1.5M of his salary is guaranteed so saved less than 1M there.
We'll say Gronk retires, you missed Dwayne Allen, both gone so that'll save 15M, but you need two TEs.
I'll ignore Cannon/Brown now since that subtracts space.

So you're around 48M in space, taking ODB knocks you down to 31M, Flowers say to around 15M.

You need around 8M for in season expenses, so you've got about 7M left to sign your draft class and replace a starting safety, a stud TE, backup TE, starting left tackle unless you put Wynn there, starting/third corner in Jason McCourty, kicker, two core STs, a couple WRs, at least one DT since Brown/Shelton are gone, a kick returner, a backup QB. Are you adjusting Edelmans 3M in cash coming this season now that you paid OBJ 17M or just telling him to pound sand?

Whew. Feels like you might need to do some more cutting, no?
 
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bagwell1

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I will be lazy and make this quick. My fake Objective: Sign Flowers and Trade for OBJ.
My hypothetical Flowers signing is 5/95. He gets a 15M signing bonus with a 2019 base salary of 2M. Cap Hit for 2019 is 5M.(3M proration+2M base). He will have a hefty salary in 2020 with a ton guaranteed . So while he "only" gets 17M(15 bonus and 2 base) in cash year 1, his 2 year cash payout (and guarantees) will be huge.

1 year extension for Brady. 2019 salary is 2M (see above for 2020). Frees up 13M

Cut Allen(7) and Clayborn(4). Frees up 11M. That gives me 24M. I just covered OBJ and Flowers with cash to spare. Of course, I can do something with OBJ contract to dramatically lower his 17M 2019 cap hit.
 

NortheasternPJ

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I'm not really in on OBJ but my favorite part of the whole thing is the Giants were going to trade him and then backed off because the Patriots wanted him. BB's mindfucking with the rest of the league.

- Love the guy, and he played well in the SB, but is Slater really that good anymore? Cutting him saves 2.5 million. I’d guess restructure, but a cut wouldn’t surprise me.
I would be shocked if Slater was cut and I do believe he's still fantastic. He was huge in the SB, but he was great all year.
 

rodderick

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I'm not really in on OBJ but my favorite part of the whole thing is the Giants were going to trade him and then backed off because the Patriots wanted him. BB's mindfucking with the rest of the league.



I would be shocked if Slater was cut and I do believe he's still fantastic. He was huge in the SB, but he was great all year.
I'd pay Slater just to have him around the team. Seems like one of those glue guys.
 

Ed Hillel

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Brady missed incentives are already counted in their current cap space.
Inevitable Brady extension probably doesn't save much because 12M of his current hit is locked in from previous bonuses.
Cap hit is 27 million, though. If what he wants is commitment more than big money, something like 3 years, 20 million bonus with min salary this year and 10 mil guaranteed each of the next three seasons might work. I guess we’ll have to see what Kraft/BB/Brady are willing to do. That would save 8 mil or so.

Actually, wait a second. If an extension is signed last year of deal with a bonus up front, when does the bonus start to prorate? Would it be 20 million over 3 years starting next year, or 20 million over 4 starting this? If it’s former, Pats could save double digit millions with an exchange of commitment for cap relief from Brady.


Whew. Feels like you might need to do some more cutting, no?
For those 2, yes. OBJ would need to restructure.

I think Flowers is good as gone, though. Reiss pegged him 70% stay, but I don’t see it.
I would be shocked if Slater was cut and I do believe he's still fantastic. He was huge in the SB, but he was great all year.
He was? I honestly thought he seemed pretty average, and he’s not been healthy the two seasons prior. Keeping him around for leadership, maybe, but dude’s gonna be 34 and at least to me clearly seems to be slowing overall. I don’t think BB keeps him at 3 million for the year, and I think odds are pretty decent Slater retires. We’ll see.
 
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DennyDoyle'sBoil

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I will be lazy and make this quick. My fake Objective: Sign Flowers and Trade for OBJ.
My hypothetical Flowers signing is 5/95. He gets a 15M signing bonus with a 2019 base salary of 2M. Cap Hit for 2019 is 5M.(3M proration+2M base). He will have a hefty salary in 2020 with a ton guaranteed . So while he "only" gets 17M(15 bonus and 2 base) in cash year 1, his 2 year cash payout (and guarantees) will be huge.

1 year extension for Brady. 2019 salary is 2M (see above for 2020). Frees up 13M

Cut Allen(7) and Clayborn(4). Frees up 11M. That gives me 24M. I just covered OBJ and Flowers with cash to spare. Of course, I can do something with OBJ contract to dramatically lower his 17M 2019 cap hit.
What are the details on this magic Brady extension? You can’t just extend him and take away the $15 million he is due this year.
 

BigJimEd

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Seems like a silly experiment. As been mentioned a few times, the cap is not a one year thing.
Us fans and media always talk about the cap in one year terms but reality is you need to look at the next several years.
 

cornwalls@6

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How many Super Bowls do they have to play in/win without the high maintenance, diva wide receiver, to make people stop pining for the high maintenance/diva wide receiver? A resounding no on OBJ from me. Retain as many of our assets as possible, and use the draft, and finding tough, smart, coachable middle class free agents to re-stock where needed. I’d personally be fine seeing Dorsette and Patterson back, and using the above mentioned avenues to replace Hogan and add some depth.
 

PedroKsBambino

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How many Super Bowls do they have to play in/win without the high maintenance, diva wide receiver, to make people stop pining for the high maintenance/diva wide receiver?
More than 9, apparently? I guess you could say they had one for the 2007 Super Bowl.

I don't imagine Pats will truly be in on such a WR this offseason---they'll look for a cheaper solution. If they were going to pursue a high-priced WR I'd far prefer they pay the extra price for the far more team-oriented Julio Jones anyway.

They clearly saw a need for that skillset in-season this year and explored OBJ before taking the gamble on Gordon. But then, they won wtihout it and now that it's the offseason I just think they will, as they have in many past offseasons, look to build diversity in the offense in other ways.
 

BigSoxFan

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How many Super Bowls do they have to play in/win without the high maintenance, diva wide receiver, to make people stop pining for the high maintenance/diva wide receiver? A resounding no on OBJ from me. Retain as many of our assets as possible, and use the draft, and finding tough, smart, coachable middle class free agents to re-stock where needed. I’d personally be fine seeing Dorsette and Patterson back, and using the above mentioned avenues to replace Hogan and add some depth.
There are certainly many valid reasons to be against an OBJ trade but I don’t get the “hey, they’ve won SBs without guys like him” logic. I mean, sure, they have but every team is different and there are multiple ways to win a title. They were also one fluke catch away from going 19-0 with one of those “high maintenance, diva wide receivers” (or so we thought at the time of the trade). There is real upside to getting a guy like OBJ and having him play to his abilities in the Pats system. There are also considerable downsides with him as well, which I think we all get.

End of the day, it’s far more difficult for the offense if there are no guys who can command double teams. Gronk was that guy for a long time but he may be done. Edelman is 33 in May. How many more elite years does he have left? Maybe 1? Our QB will be 42 this summer. We should be making it as easy as possible for him. The checkdowns to White will be more effective when you have a guy drawing double coverage. Who is drawing double coverage in your Edelman/Dorsett/Patterson/draft pick offense? We obviously can’t rely on Gordon.

I ultimately doubt that any OBJ trade happens, let alone to NE, but I would be intrigued. But if I had a choice, I would much rather put those resources towards bringing Flowers back. If it looks like Flowers is a goner, which I expect given other teams’ cap situations, then I’m willing to investigate these kinds of trades.
 

bagwell1

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What are the details on this magic Brady extension? You can’t just extend him and take away the $15 million he is due this year.
Brady has 12M in guaranteed money (prorated bonus) and 15M in roster/base salary (non guaranteed). If he plays under it, that is a cap hit of 27M.

I have no idea what Brady is looking for in additional money but lets give him a 2 year contract. Obviously, Brady has to be willing to take less cash in 2019 and defer it to 2020 for this to work. Maybe he wouldn't. Maybe Giselle could start working more again if they are hurting. But all of this has been pure hypothetical and quite frankly, I am just having a little fun. Evidently, very little for some.

2019. 12M bonus, 2M base. Cap hit of 14M, "saves" 13M
2020 Huge base salary and most guaranteed. And next year, since he is playing till 45, convert the base to signing bonus, and create 2020 cap room. And then, since He is the terminator and 'will not stop', you restructure/extend in 2021, 2022.....
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Brady has 12M in guaranteed money (prorated bonus) and 15M in roster/base salary (non guaranteed). If he plays under it, that is a cap hit of 27M.

I have no idea what Brady is looking for in additional money but lets give him a 2 year contract. Obviously, Brady has to be willing to take less cash in 2019 and defer it to 2020 for this to work. Maybe he wouldn't. Maybe Giselle could start working more again if they are hurting. But all of this has been pure hypothetical and quite frankly, I am just having a little fun. Evidently, very little for some.

2019. 12M bonus, 2M base. Cap hit of 14M, "saves" 13M
2020 Huge base salary and most guaranteed. And next year, since he is playing till 45, convert the base to signing bonus, and create 2020 cap room. And then, since He is the terminator and 'will not stop', you restructure/extend in 2021, 2022.....
This is make believe. There is no way Brady is going to defer $13 million in salary next year. I don’t even know if they are allowed to do that. What they could do is extend him a year and convert the amount above the minimum salary to bonus and spread it over the two years. They could eek out about $6.5m that way, at the cost of a big hit next year depending on his 2020 salary, which I think would be around $25 million, or maybe as low as $22m if he’s feeling generous.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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The genesis of Felger's cap is crap argument, I believe, was the Rex Ryan Jets who loaded up on high-end talent by kicking the can down the road and predictably collapsed after two years of being decent.

As for any argument that NOW is the time to do it, well, we've heard that probably since before SB49. I think it's time to keep doing what they've been doing, and if there is room to splurge it should be on Flowers/Brown or a Gilmore-level front 7 acquisition.
 

Ed Hillel

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This is make believe. There is no way Brady is going to defer $13 million in salary next year. I don’t even know if they are allowed to do that. What they could do is extend him a year and convert the amount above the minimum salary to bonus and spread it over the two years. They could eek out about $6.5m that way, at the cost of a big hit next year depending on his 2020 salary, which I think would be around $25 million, or maybe as low as $22m if he’s feeling generous.
25 million base salary in 2020, plus a significant signing bonus? Belichick might quit if Kraft forced that on him. Let’s not pretend Brady’s play didn’t slip this year a bit and that he’s not going to be 43 in 2020.

Brady is going to want a commitment more than anything, imo, which means enough to be a pain on the cap if they try to move on, but not to hamper the team’s ability to compete. I’m thinking somewhere in the 15-20 million cap range moving forward. I would not at all be surprised if he reduces his salary this year drastically and exchanges it for a signing bonus and a small but significant guaranteed base salary moving forward.

Does anyone know the answer about bonus proration for an extension? So, if Brady signs a 3 year extension with a 25 million signing bonus, does 6.25 hit this year and each of the next 3? Or would 8.33 hit starting in 2020, with nothing this year?
 

pappymojo

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Jul 28, 2010
6,668
How many Super Bowls do they have to play in/win without the high maintenance, diva wide receiver, to make people stop pining for the high maintenance/diva wide receiver? A resounding no on OBJ from me. Retain as many of our assets as possible, and use the draft, and finding tough, smart, coachable middle class free agents to re-stock where needed. I’d personally be fine seeing Dorsette and Patterson back, and using the above mentioned avenues to replace Hogan and add some depth.
Antonio Brown seems like a diva to me, but I give OBJ more of a pass. I suspect that the New York media plays up his antics. Not saying I want him, more pushing back on the diva claims. I think it's a bit like people calling Brady a pretty boy whiner. When someone plays on another team and is talentrd but you don't want to like them, you manufacture a narrative about their personality to justify why you dont like them. (Not you in particular - we are all guilty of this).
 

lexrageorge

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Jul 31, 2007
18,100
Speculating on a Brady restructure:

First, I believe they cannot restructure until the one year anniversary date of his last restructure, which was 8/10/18. So they would be into the middle of training camp, and so I'm not sure there would be a way to reduce his $27M cap hit in time to fit both other free agents they need to sign and OBJ.

What they could do with Brady is take his $14M in salary, convert it to signing bonus as part of an extension, and then pay him a "nominal" salary for 2019. Then he would get a more "normal" salary in 2020 and 2021. So, his 2019 cap hit would include:

- $12M in current dead cap
- $4.7M for the prorated $14M bonus.
- $4M in "nominal" salary (wild ass guess as a best case).
- Whatever they have to add to the $14M bonus to sweeten the pot for Brady (again, prorated). Let's say this is $2M.

Best case cap hit for Brady in 2019 then becomes $22 million. That does save $5M, which obviously isn't chump change, but it's probably not the big difference maker when it comes to taking on a $17M/yr player. And my assumptions may be wildly optimistic. Maybe adding another year helps the numbers a bit, but hard to see that helping by more than a couple of million.

We had a similar argument when Garoppolo was traded; there was no way to make the cap numbers work that would allow both of them to stay in 2018, Ben Volin's bleatings to the contrary notwithstanding.

No, Michael Felger, the cap is not "crap".
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
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Sep 9, 2008
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25 million base salary in 2020, plus a significant signing bonus? Belichick might quit if Kraft forced that on him. Let’s not pretend Brady’s play didn’t slip this year a bit and that he’s not going to be 43 in 2020.

Brady is going to want a commitment more than anything, imo, which means enough to be a pain on the cap if they try to move on, but not to hamper the team’s ability to compete. I’m thinking somewhere in the 15-20 million cap range moving forward. I would not at all be surprised if he reduces his salary this year drastically and exchanges it for a signing bonus and a small but significant guaranteed base salary moving forward.

Does anyone know the answer about bonus proration for an extension? So, if Brady signs a 3 year extension with a 25 million signing bonus, does 6.25 hit this year and each of the next 3? Or would 8.33 hit starting in 2020, with nothing this year?
Yes, I would think that compensation going forward is going to have to be about $25 million/year in one form or another unless Brady is feeling very generous. Maybe they could get it down a little from that, but expecting him to play for less is just expecting him to be very generous. He's not going to take less than Ryan Tannehill makes, for example. I would think the Drew Brees contract is a good comp. Maybe he agrees to, what, $22? Ok. Maybe. If I'm Don Yee, I think I start with Jimmy G as an absolute bottom and see what happens.

I believe proration can happen at any time, including in the middle of a year.

Speculating on a Brady restructure:

First, I believe they cannot restructure until the one year anniversary date of his last restructure, which was 8/10/18. So they would be into the middle of training camp, and so I'm not sure there would be a way to reduce his $27M cap hit in time to fit both other free agents they need to sign and OBJ.

What they could do with Brady is take his $14M in salary, convert it to signing bonus as part of an extension, and then pay him a "nominal" salary for 2019. Then he would get a more "normal" salary in 2020 and 2021. So, his 2019 cap hit would include:

- $12M in current dead cap
- $4.7M for the prorated $14M bonus.
- $4M in "nominal" salary (wild ass guess as a best case).
- Whatever they have to add to the $14M bonus to sweeten the pot for Brady (again, prorated). Let's say this is $2M.

Best case cap hit for Brady in 2019 then becomes $22 million. That does save $5M, which obviously isn't chump change, but it's probably not the big difference maker when it comes to taking on a $17M/yr player. And my assumptions may be wildly optimistic. Maybe adding another year helps the numbers a bit, but hard to see that helping by more than a couple of million.

We had a similar argument when Garoppolo was traded; there was no way to make the cap numbers work that would allow both of them to stay in 2018, Ben Volin's bleatings to the contrary notwithstanding.

No, Michael Felger, the cap is not "crap".
Yup, this is pretty much right. And then figuring out future year cap hits depends on what the contract is going forward. And you make a good point that none of this is going to give them any relief before August.

They also have to think about how high they are willing to go on cap hit next year. Suppose they are willing to kick the can one year down the road and stay at $27 million. That only works if you get Brady to take a relatively low number for playing in 2020.

No matter what you do, if you're talking about a one year extension, the cap hit next year is going to be equal to 2020 compensation plus cap savings this year. There is no other way to make it happen. Whatever form the 2020 compensation takes -- guaranteed money now or salary and bonuses next year -- however you do it, 2020 cap hit will always be 2019 cap savings plus 2020 compensation. It's a zero sum game. So, if they can get him to play in 2020 for $22 million in new money, the cap hit next year will be $22 million plus whatever you shave off the $27 million this year. So, a $5 million savings this year equals $27 million cap hit next year. Adjust upwards as necessary depending on 2020 comp.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2008
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One other thing that the Patriots could conceivable do with Brady is a technique like the Saints used with Brees where they signed him to a 2-year deal for 2019 and 2020 but the contract automatically voids after 2019 unless the Saints pick it up. This gave them an extra year to spread the cap hit out. I actually can't believe that's allowed under the rules but I guess it must be.

That said, taking on a $10 million cap hit in 2020 for nothing is not exactly sound cap management. It's hard to imagine the Patriots doing something like that.
 

Ed Hillel

Wants to be startin somethin
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2007
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Yes, I would think that compensation going forward is going to have to be about $25 million/year in one form or another unless Brady is feeling very generous. Maybe they could get it down a little from that, but expecting him to play for less is just expecting him to be very generous. He's not going to take less than Ryan Tannehill makes, for example. I would think the Drew Brees contract is a good comp. Maybe he agrees to, what, $22? Ok. Maybe. If I'm Don Yee, I think I start with Jimmy G as an absolute bottom and see what happens.
What am I missing here? When has Brady ever looked at comparable players and asked for true market value? That has not been his priority ever, and I see no reason it would start now, in his declining years and seeking to further cement his legacy and the best. I’d be surprised if his cap figure is ever 25 million, let alone his base salary. I think it will be in the 20 range his last few years, maybe it ticks up towards the end with the cap increasing.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2008
42,297
AZ
What am I missing here? When has Brady ever looked at comparable players and asked for true market value? That has not been his priority ever, and I see no reason it would start now, in his declining years and seeking to further cement his legacy and the best. I’d be surprised if his cap figure is ever 25 million, let alone his base salary. I think it will be in the 20 range his last few years, maybe it ticks up towards the end with the cap increasing.
While Brady has taken discounts, they are a bit over inflated. Since Brady agreed to play for $20.5 million/year, which was a bit of a discount over the Ben contract the year before, contracts have changed. Then Rodgers signed for effectively $34 million a year, Carr for $25 million, Jimmy G for $27 million, Stafford for $27 million etc. I have no doubt that Brady will take less from the Patriots than he could get as a free agent, especially if he can get some kind of commitment through 2021 and make it expensive for them to cut him after next year. But I would be very very surprised if he took Ryan Tannehill, Case Kenum, or Blake Bortles money.

The franchise tag amount for QBs when Brady signed for 20.5 was about 19 million. Now it's creeping up to 24 million. Maybe 25m is a bit high, but if the Patriots are essentially asking him for one year at a time and asking him to help them with the cap, I really don't see that he's going to do something crazy low. Anyway, as I said, even 22 million for 2020 puts his 2020 cap number at $27 million if he gives them $5 million in relief this year.