I know it is make believe. It was just an exercise to show what can be done to manipulate the cap to open up room in a given year. But, based upon someone at Pats Pulpit allegedly doing actual research, it appears the most you can free up in 2019 from Brady based upon current contract rules is only about 11M. Now don't freak out. They are just saying it is hypothetically possible.
2019 Patriots: Post-SB Roster Thread
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
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Dumb question but how does a Retirement work.
Say Brady (or Gronk). Are they responsible for just the guaranteed money? (seems likely). Is the Bonus (workout etc etc) null and void due to the retirement?
Assuming he is willing (which why should he, but play along...) Could Brady keep pushing this out into 2021 or something then retire and basically give the Pats a Get out of Jail (Cap hell) free card?
What is the Best case scenario Cap wise assuming a Brady retirement in say 2021? Take a big pill this year and "reset" for 2020 and beyond?
Say Brady (or Gronk). Are they responsible for just the guaranteed money? (seems likely). Is the Bonus (workout etc etc) null and void due to the retirement?
Assuming he is willing (which why should he, but play along...) Could Brady keep pushing this out into 2021 or something then retire and basically give the Pats a Get out of Jail (Cap hell) free card?
What is the Best case scenario Cap wise assuming a Brady retirement in say 2021? Take a big pill this year and "reset" for 2020 and beyond?
Trust me, it is an experience following the Pats and the Jags (my new hometown) and roster construction. I call it the Pats and the Bizarro Pats.
The Jags went to town on some big name free agents ( mainly due to the 2011 cba cap rollover being a gift for Jax and the timing of their "blow it up" rebuild) but those were actually ok. Where they killed themselves was overpaying so many lame free agents and how they handled the draft(almost never acquiring any more draft capital despite unprecedented string of top 5 picks.) Beyond painful waste of cap room.
The Bortles extension was the cherry on top. They have some no brainer cuts coming so they will be "ok" cap-wise this year and in much better shape next year depending on QB. But what a waste of years of cap/draft advantage. They did get to the Patriot invitational though. So there's that.
What the Pats do is truly incredible. To compare them in such detail with another franchise is unreal.
Yeah I absolutely loved that, even considering the source. Here's the quote:
There's a name for that, it's called reactive devaluation. AKA the Red Auerbach treatment. Even if made up or imagined out of spite, might as well enjoy that reputation.
And I like that Belichick was "the most aggressive" suitor for him, because at the time he was a hugely undervalued asset possibly undergoing a firesale. That's right where you expect Belichick to be, right where I want him to be regardless of the player.
Miguel went into this in depth on BSJ. Here is his conclusion/opinion:
My guess on what will happen is that the Patriots will lower Brady’s cap number from $27 million to $22 million in an extension whose new money APY is $28 million. Jimmy G’s APY is $27.5 million.
Signing Bonus: $30 million
Guaranteed Money: $52 million
Fully Guaranteed At signing: $50 million
New Money Total: $84 million ($99 million over four years)
Contract Length: Three-year extension
Average Per Year: $28 million
I am not that worried about future dead money because I expect Brady to officially retire after June 1 which would allow the Patriots to spread the hit over two years (the year Brady retires and the following year). For example, if Brady were to retire on June 2, 2021, his 2021 dead money will be $7.5 million and his 2022 dead money will be $7.5 million. In 2014 Aaron Hernandez’s dead money was $7.5 million. That amount did not prevent the Patriots from winning the Super Bowl that season. In 2021 the league cap will likely be over 50% higher than it was in 2014.
I think it's like cutting a player. You're still responsible for the bonuses you paid but not for the salary and other payments that were to be made in the years the player doesn't play. It accelerates any amounts you pro-rated, which you take either in that year or can spread over two years.
Yuck, I hate this. Are they really going to borrow $15 million against future caps when they'll also a need a QB. This is effectively what the Saints are doing with Brees by apportioning $10 million of the cap to 2021. I guess the idea is that as the cap goes up each year the impact lessens so take the cap space now. But, man, I don't like mortgaging the future like this. Unless maybe we just are ready to concede that after Brady the team is going to suck so what's the big deal anyway.
Wouldn't the borrowing against the cap with Brady even out if they draft and start a QB on the rookie deal? I don't see the Pats going the Nick Foles route.
I think this risk turns on what they’ll have to pay Tom’s successor in the early years. If they strike out in the draft they’ll be hurt because it’ll likely mean they need to pay an established player; if they hit in the draft, it would be unlikely to matter.
I see this point, but man, if you hit the lottery with a young QB one of things that should go along with it is that you also have cost control for 4 or 5 years and can make the rest of your team better with all the money you're saving. I mean, the Chiefs are sitting pretty for 2/3 more years, paying just a few million for a QB worth upwards of $25 to $30 million. There's no position where a great cost controlled player helps you with other needs as much as Quarterback.
I mean, I get that this is like hitting the lottery. But you can't win the lottery if you don't buy a ticket and in the post-Brady era we're going to need some lottery tickets.
In the end, it all matters what they do with the $5 million in cap space now, but it seems an expensive price to pay for the future.
I don't see the Patriots doing this, especially with Brady's age and the lockout. And the lockout is a big part of it, you don't know what the cap is going to look like. Dumping dead money on post lockout years could be a big problem especially if the cap actually goes down.
If that deal happens, Belichick is officially in “fuck it, I’m leaving when Brady leaves” mode. There’s zero chance Belichick the GM would ever sign that deal in a vacuum, and as I mentioned before, I would be surprised if Brady wants to take up that much of the cap in his final few seasons. He wants more championships.
The value of that rookie deal will be partly reliant on how long Tom plays. If he plays three more seasons as the starter, then you are really getting one cost-controlled season out of his successor if you draft him this year. I’m skeptical they find that guy in this draft, though.
Anyways, your larger point stands up. It’d have to take a special set of circumstances to kick out Tom’s cap charges in this manner, and it’s hard to envision what those circumstances would have to be. You can find money other ways, and if you can’t then maybe it’s not worth the player you think you need to grab.
There will always be a population of GFIN, fuck 2020 people.
Thank God none of them ran the Pats five years ago when Brady's arm was just about fell off and the window was closing fast.
Thank God none of them ran the Pats five years ago when Brady's arm was just about fell off and the window was closing fast.
I don't see that Brady contract as all that crazy. The team basically has two choices: 1) re-up for another 2-year deal, in which case they're not going to be able to reduce his cap hit much below the $27 MM it's already at, or 2) gamble on a four-five-year deal like Miguel laid out, reduce his 2019 hit to create some space, and run the risk of having some dead money on the back end if Brady doesn't play out the four years.
Is there a huge issue with just riding out 2019 at $27M from a cap perspective? Or is the issue more that Brady wants a couple more years on his deal?
Considering the salary cap will continue to rise, I think the 4-5 year deal will be the best route. The dead money on the back end will be a smaller percentage of the cap.
Brady has never gone into the last year of his deal and played it out. Plus you want to lower the cap number to have some breathing room to make transactions. Even more so if McCourty and Gronk come back and they don't happen to restructure.
Makes sense. I'm good with the 4-5 year deal approach and having to deal with the fallout at that point in time, and spreading any hit over two years.
For Tom Brady, I think you do what you need to, to keep the best possible team around him. That's not a GFIN statement, more about using whatever cap techniques are available to keep the TB Pats' talent level high.
Sure, we joke about the AFCCG being the Brady Invitational, and latterly, the SB being the same. But this isn't normal, and it won't last forever. If (when) TB leaves, the biggest concern that the franchise and its fans will have isn't the dead cap money, it will be whether the team can regain its status as a playoff contender. Let's please grasp at the rings while they are there for the taking!
Sure, we joke about the AFCCG being the Brady Invitational, and latterly, the SB being the same. But this isn't normal, and it won't last forever. If (when) TB leaves, the biggest concern that the franchise and its fans will have isn't the dead cap money, it will be whether the team can regain its status as a playoff contender. Let's please grasp at the rings while they are there for the taking!
We may never see a 2017 MVP season from Brady again, but I think he can maintain 2018-level seasons for at least 3 years given what the OL is doing in front of him.
Of course, a Theisman-type injury moots any projection, for any age QB.
Of course, a Theisman-type injury moots any projection, for any age QB.
What's the point though?
Yes it's theoretically possible if Brady in this fantasy land agrees to a contract that he'd never in a million years agree to in real life they could clear 11M in cap space.
Great.
That's as useful as saying Trey Flowers loves it here, he could sign a one year deal for 2M just so they can keep winning!
Just because something is mathematically possible doesn't mean it can realistically happen.
Wouldn't an investment in Trent Brown be prudent then? Groom Wynn as Cannon's replacement/depth.
I'd say no, for Brady interior line play is critical. He still slides and steps up in the pocket well enough to avoid outside pass rush but if someone gets through the A or B gap quickly he isn't rolling out and throwing on the run.
Luckily the NE interior OL is young, signed and the best in the NFL.
Problem is an investment in Brown probably means no Flowers and I’d much rather have the latter. Brown was great this year but there are future performance concerns given his size and Wynn may be an acceptable fill in for 1/7th the cost.
Agreed, retain Flowers, play Wynn, but also upgrade the "next man up" tackle on the bench through a draft pick of FA
Isn't there a happy medium here? Sign both Brown and Flowers, but cut Cannon and move Wynn to RT.
Will be interesting to see what they think of Waddle. He’s been a decent swing tackle for the past few seasons.
Exactly what I have been promoting since pre-Super Bowl. Cannon was the weak link, IMO.
Are people thinking 2nd round tender for Jonathan Jones? Seems like someone would gladly scoop him up for the original round tender. With Gilmore, Jackson, Dawson, and Crossen before even getting to FA and draft, we’re actually in a pretty good spot here so possible the team will want to keep the $1.1M difference between the 2nd round tender and the original round tender.
I think they have to do it given what he has put on film. You could argue they have 3 straight titles if he hadn't gotten hurt last year.
Yup. In my head I'm already viewing the 2.9 million or whatever the second round tender is as money off the cap. I'm also assuming something in the neighborhood of 4.5 to 5 million for Allen and Gostkowski. So, the cap savings for cutting Dwayne Allen is pretty much already spent on checking those three boxes, and then they can get to work going forward.
I thought Cannon was pretty good last year. I don't know how much stock people put into PFF, but Cannon graded out higher than Brown- 72.8 (27th ranked T) to 71 (32nd T). Cannon also seems to be on a pretty reasonable deal, whereas the bidding for TB could get out of control.
In addition, if you cut Cannon and sign Brown, you will not recoup a comp pick. If you hang on to Cannon and Brown signs elsewhere, however, you are in line to receive a 3rd round pick (depending on free agents you sign yourself and all that).
Cannon has great value, you can probably get a 2nd or 3rd round pick for him. I’d rather that than cut him. I don’t really think he’s been much of a weak link, either. He was really quite good when healthy.
But I understand there’s depth and Cannon is a bit older now, so I wouldn’t at all be surprised if he’s traded.
Yes, though Thuney is a UFA after next season. Wouldn’t be stunned to see a pick at the position. Looking at the interior line, the production to salary is off the charts.
New England had the lowest paid OL in football last year. Try to wrap your heads around that!
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Honestly him over Bademosi or even Richards (remember Jones can play safety) and I agree. Worse loss than Butler not playing...
I seriously hope Dante isnt included in that. Dude deserves to GET PAID. If not he should leave and go fix Brexit or figure out peace in the middle east.
Exactly - if given a choice to go back in time I'd rather have Jones on the field
Jones is kind of a rare bird in the BB era in that he is a ST standout but has made the jump to being a true contributor on D.
He’s a FA so decent chance he’ll go the Cameron Fleming route and you’ll get your wish. I wouldn’t mind giving Dante some fresh clay to mold.
You've got Cannon locked in at 3/21. Brown is going to get double the salary and probably more years.
That's not a happy medium, it's a happy extra large.
I am a big Cannon fan. His contract is very reasonable, he was a stud in the playoffs. When healthy he has always been good. Can they put the franchise tag on Brown and trade him? Seems risky, best to take the comp pick next year and wish the guy well.
I don’t want to tie up all the cap space waiting for a trade that may never come. I think you make an offer you’re comfortable with and then take the comp pick if/when he walks.
I agree.
I found Cannon and Brown to be comparable, TBH. Cannon is not cheap, but he's not making free agent left tackle money. Brown was awesome but has one solid year here. Cannon is a better risk and will likely be cheaper. If Brown could be had a reasonable money, great.
A guy like Waddle is a fine depth tackle type but a dropoff from both imo.
Way too risky, unless a deal is in place immediately. Otherwise Pats lose that cap space until a deal occurs. Plus you get a comp pick anyway.
Devin saying he’ll be back:
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/02/21/devin-mccourty-says-hell-return-in-2019/
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/02/21/devin-mccourty-says-hell-return-in-2019/
Now the question becomes if Belichick wants him back on his current deal. Watch him get traded to Tampa for a 4th.