2019 Pats Defense: What Are We Witnessing?

BigSoxFan

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Chase Winovich is on pace for nearly 13 sacks and almost nobody is talking about him because our energies are spent lauding the efforts of Hightower, Van Noy, Collins, Gilmore, DMac, JMac, and everyone else. But this kid is crushing it out there.

Meanwhile, speaking of people we're talking about...Collins is on pace for: 10 int (haha), 13 passes defended, 3 forced fumbles, 3 fumble recoveries, 14 sacks, and 86 tackles (64 solo). Good lord.
Yup. In far more limited role, Winovich has as many sacks as Chandler Jones and 0.5 behind Khalil Mack. He’s been everything we could have asked for and more so far.

Collins has to be the DPOY favorite through 5 games. Best 5 game stretch I can remember for him.
 

Mooch

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Per Aaron Schatz: Even with full opponent adjustments, the #Patriots would still have the best defensive DVOA ever tracked through 5 games, at -43.0%.

Obviously, we've faced some serious tomato-can offenses thus far but this Pats defense has the makings of something truly special this season. Really looking forward to seeing them against the top tier QBs (Watson, Mahomes) later this year.
 

DJnVa

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Collins has to be the DPOY favorite through 5 games. Best 5 game stretch I can remember for him.
I think Shaq Barrett is the early favorite: 9 sacks, 7 TFL, 3 forced fumbles, 1 INT, 9 PD. The sacks and TFLs lead the league.
 

Eddie Jurak

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The defense maintained its point differential, allowing its first passing TD on the year but also scoring on Van Noy's fumble return, so they have both scored and allowed 3 TD on the season.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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Michael Bennett had to play less than 10 snaps. Not sure what’s up with him.
FWIW, he didn't look happy or engaged in a couple of sideline shots. John Simon has (unexpectedly) taken over the starting role. Bennett is getting fewer snaps than Winovich.

I do not believe he'll be released or traded but is there a chance for BB to part with the veteran? He's in year 1 of a 2-year contract (ahem) with a cap hit of $6.5m and a $4m in dead cap.
 

jsinger121

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Per @PFF, Michael Bennett played 11 snaps tonight. His snap totals by week: 37, 25, 19, 24, 14 and now 11.
 

Caspir

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At first I thought they were trying to be conservative with Bennett because he’s older, but now it seems like he just isn’t good enough to get on the field much.
 

Byrdbrain

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I think his role is pass rushing inside guy and they haven’t exactly played any teams that have dangerous passing attacks.
I would expect he’ll play more against teams like KC and the Eagles. Hopefully he doesn’t get too pissed off between now and then.
 

Bowhemian

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I think his role is pass rushing inside guy and they haven’t exactly played any teams that have dangerous passing attacks.
I would expect he’ll play more against teams like KC and the Eagles. Hopefully he doesn’t get too pissed off between now and then.
Oh, I don't know about that. He seems like the type of guy who excels when he is pissed off.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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The defense maintained its point differential, allowing its first passing TD on the year but also scoring on Van Noy's fumble return, so they have both scored and allowed 3 TD on the season.
If you lump all non-offensive points together, I believe the Patriots D and Special Teams together have a positive PD, with 5 TDs for and 4 TDs + 2 FG against. I don't care who the opponents have been, through 6 weeks that is an absolutely insane stat.

Even wilder when you look at the ones given up. A muffed punt which cannot really be held against the unit as a whole, 2 very long plays that were sort of fluky, and the 4th down run. Basically we have seen the polar opposite of a bend-don't-break defense.
 

Super Nomario

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At first I thought they were trying to be conservative with Bennett because he’s older, but now it seems like he just isn’t good enough to get on the field much.
I think there are three things going on here:
1) They are just not playing edge guys very much. Of their top 11 players in defensive snaps, i.e., starters, ZERO of them are edge guys. John Simon leads all the edges with 47% of snaps; Bennett is second with 36%. Last night, Bennett only played 11 snaps, but Simon just 24, Butler (DT, but shares some of the same responsibilities as Bennett) played just 18, Wino, Calhoun, and Wise all just 14. They aren't playing any of these guys much.
2) Bennett is not being used as an everydown player. He's rotating in and playing situationally, like pretty much all the DL / OLB guys. They're going heavy on DBs and LBs and the DL and edge guys are just rotating, Bennett included. That's different than I would have expected and definitely different than how Trey Flowers was used, but that's what's been happening.
3) Specific to last night, the D only played 50 snaps. That's a really low total.
 

InstaFace

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If you lump all non-offensive points together, I believe the Patriots D and Special Teams together have a positive PD, with 5 TDs for and 4 TDs + 2 FG against. I don't care who the opponents have been, through 6 weeks that is an absolutely insane stat.

Even wilder when you look at the ones given up. A muffed punt which cannot really be held against the unit as a whole, 2 very long plays that were sort of fluky, and the 4th down run. Basically we have seen the polar opposite of a bend-don't-break defense.
Someone in the game thread said it's a "break don't bend defense", i.e. the only way to score on them is get lucky enough to take a big one to the house, which still is a once-in-a-blue-moon strategy.

You're giving the opponents credit for FGs against our ST, but not crediting our ST for FGs scored. If you really want a full accounting, the D/ST Ledger is,

For Our D/ST:
- 3 INT-TDs (Gilmore @ MIA, Collins @ MIA, KVN vs NYG)
- 2 ST TDs (Jackson punt block / Slater TD @ BUF, Bolden punt block / Winovich TD vs NYG)
- 18 PATs (3x PIT, 3x MIA, 3x NYJ, 1x BUF, 3x WAS, 5x NYG)
- 9 FGs (4x PIT, 1x MIA, 1x Jets, 1x BUF, 2x WAS)
= (5 * 6) + (18 * 1) + (9 * 3) = 75 points scored, 57 excluding PATs

Against Our D/ST:
- 3 TDs (1x BUF, 1x WAS, 1x NYG)
- 1 ST TD (Gunner muff vs NYJ)
- 6 PATs (same as TDs, all PATs made, +2 PATs from Jets pick-6 and NYG fumble recovery)
- 2 FGs (1x PIT, 1x BUF)
= (4 * 6) + (6 * 1) + (2 * 3) = 36 points allowed, 30 excluding PATs

Net:
- Including all PATs: +39
- Excluding all PATs: +27
- Excluding all PATs and FGs: +6 (5 TDs to 4)
- Defense-only: 0 (3 TDs scored and conceded)

N.B.:
- Failed PATs: 2 @ MIA, 1 NYJ, 1 BUF, 1 WAS
- Excludes Jets' INT-TD off Brady, which you could consider a score for the opponents' defense and include if you wanted the ledger to be both sides' D+ST, but we're including the opponents' offense here, so this is more like our D/ST vs their O/ST

The most mind-boggling part to me is that they've only allowed 2 FGs. We've won a lot of games the last decade by having comparable red-zone possessions to our opponents, and Brady scores TDs while the BBDB Defense holds them to FGs. Against this D, you're lucky if you see midfield, nevermind the red zone.
 
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RedOctober3829

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It's been a weird year for Bennett. They've been in a lot of 3 man fronts this year and Adam Butler has been the primary D-tackle in that role. When they do play 4 man fronts, Shelton and Guy are in with a combo of Bennett, Simon, Wise, Winovich at ends.
 

Saints Rest

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The crazy quote from this article in my mind:
CB JC JACKSON Jackson has let up just 7 yards on two catches and seven targets in coverage over the past three games. He has two interceptions during that span. He’s let up just 96 yards on the season and is allowing a 15.8 passer rating. He might be the only lockdown No. 4 cornerback in the NFL.
IIRC, his passer-against rating last year was absurdly low then as well.
Considering the days of re-treads like Terrell Buckley and Duane (you know my number because you always see me chasing a player toward our end zone) Starks, never-were's like Jonathan Wilhite and Darius Butler, and WR's playing CB like Troy Brown and Julian Edelman, it's just absurd how good the Pats' CB depth is.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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And Jones' "poor" night last night was basically average luck away from being 3/6 for 20 yards with 3 PBUs.
 

TFisNEXT

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And Jones' "poor" night last night was basically average luck away from being 3/6 for 20 yards with 3 PBUs.
Yeah it looked like he tipped the long touchdown ball...it was basically perfect coverage, but unfortunate the ball bounced up and forward in a spot where Tate could easily control it.


The two most mind-boggling stats to me through 6 games on the passing defense are this:

4.6 Y/A
1 TD 14 INT

Those are the opponents so far in 2019 against the Patriots passing the ball.
 

NortheasternPJ

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Yeah it looked like he tipped the long touchdown ball...it was basically perfect coverage, but unfortunate the ball bounced up and forward in a spot where Tate could easily control it.


The two most mind-boggling stats to me through 6 games on the passing defense are this:

4.6 Y/A
1 TD 14 INT

Those are the opponents so far in 2019 against the Patriots passing the ball.
He definitely got the ball and forced the catch to have 2 bobbles afterwards. He kind of fell down, but he was right there, sometimes shit happens.
 

Pandemonium67

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I see the value in those coverage stats, but aren't they missing a huge part of coverage -- namely, they only show when the ball was actually thrown to the guy the defender was covering. They don't show when the defender's coverage was so good that the QB threw it elsewhere. Nor do they show, of course, the quality of the receiver being thrown to.

So they're useful but quite limited.
 

Marciano490

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I see the value in those coverage stats, but aren't they missing a huge part of coverage -- namely, they only show when the ball was actually thrown to the guy the defender was covering. They don't show when the defender's coverage was so good that the QB threw it elsewhere. Nor do they show, of course, the quality of the receiver being thrown to.

So they're useful but quite limited.
Well, they show how few passes go to the defender’s man, so the implication isn’t too hard to puzzle out.
 

tims4wins

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New current favorite stat: 74 drives against the Pats. 5 have ended in scores (3 TD, 2 FG). 5 have also ended in Pats scores (2 INT-TD, 1 fumble-TD, 2 blocked punt-TD).
 

BaseballJones

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Opponents' passing vs NE...

Pit: 27-47, 276 yds, 0 td, 1 int
Mia: 18-39, 186 yds, 0 td, 4 int
NYJ: 12-22, 98 yds, 0 td, 1 int
Buf: 22-44, 280 yds, 0 td, 4 int
Was: 18-27, 122 yds, 0 td, 1 int
NYG: 15-31, 161 yds, 1 td, 3 int

TOT: 112-210 (53.3%), 1,123 yds, 1 td, 14 int, 42.6 rating

If the opposing QB spiked the ball into the ground on those 210 pass attempts, his rating would be 39.6. Instead it's 42.6. Unbelievable.
 

tims4wins

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Those numbers don't include the Giants game.
Yeah they do. Otherwise there were only 4 scores against them: Steelers FG, Bills TD and FG, Washington TD. Add in a Giants TD. The numbers came from Curran today.

Edit: and of course the fumble-TD and one of the blocked punt TDs happened last night.
 

InstaFace

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Yeah they do. Otherwise there were only 4 scores against them: Steelers FG, Bills TD and FG, Washington TD. Add in a Giants TD. The numbers came from Curran today.

Edit: and of course the fumble-TD and one of the blocked punt TDs happened last night.
So it counts opponents' drives that ended in a FG as a score for that opponent, but not the drive that ended in a Gunner muff recovered for a TD by the Jets?

And, I owe you an apology on the other side, I thought we had 3 pick-sixes but of course one was the fumble you mentioned.
 

Zedia

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TOT: 112-210 (53.3%), 1,123 yds, 1 td, 14 int, 42.6 rating

If the opposing QB spiked the ball into the ground on those 210 pass attempts, his rating would be 39.6. Instead it's 42.6. Unbelievable.
For years, big defensive plays seemed so hard to come by. Last year, they had 30 sacks and 18 int all year. This year they have 25 sacks and 14 int in six games.
 

tims4wins

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So it counts opponents' drives that ended in a FG as a score for that opponent, but not the drive that ended in a Gunner muff recovered for a TD by the Jets?

And, I owe you an apology on the other side, I thought we had 3 pick-sixes but of course one was the fumble you mentioned.
You’re right, the Gunner muff should probably count in fairness.

Forgetting the ST aspect of it, 5 scores on 74 drives is insane. That is 0.364 points per drive. So if you get 12 drives against the Pats... you score 4.37 points. What?!?!? We’ve never seen anything like this.
 

tims4wins

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The 3 TDs given up:
Josh Allen 4th and goal, “he was safe by like... an inch”
Washington 65 yard run with multiple missed or not attempted tackles
Tate 64 yard catch, tight coverage, awful tackling angle by Harmon

Through 6 games it has been borderline impossible to drive the field for a TD.
 

tims4wins

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Update
Ravens:
Game 1 (@ Steelers, finished 9-7): 0 points, 193 yards passing, 30 yards rushing, 223 total yards
Game 2 (vs. Jacksonville, finished 7-9): 36 points, 375 yards passing, 46 yards rushing, 421 total yards
Game 3 (@ Miami, finished 11-5): 19 points, 152 yards passing, 106 yards rushing, 258 total yards
Game 4 (vs Cincinnati, finished 4-12): 0 points, 90 yards passing, 4 yards rushing, 94 total yards
Game 5 (@ Cleveland, finished 3-13): 0 points, 207 yards passing, 23 yards rushing, 230 total yards
Totals: 55 points, 1,017 yards passing, 186 yards rushing, 1,226 total yards, total opponents' record of 34-46, .425%)

Pats:
Game 1 (vs Steelers, currently 1-4): 3 points, 276 yards passing, 32 yards rushing, 308 total yards
Game 2 (@ Miami, currently 0-4): 0 points, 142 yards passing, 42 yards rushing, 184 total yards
Game 3 (vs Jets, currently 0-4): 14 points, 69 yards passing, 36 yards rushing, 105 total yards
Game 4 (at Bills, currently 4-1): 10 points, 240 yards passing, 135 yards rushing, 375 total yards
Game 5: (at Washington, currently 0-5): 7 points, 75 yards passing, 145 yards rushing, 220 total yards
Total: 34 points, 802 yards passing, 390 yards rushing, 1,192 total yards, total opponents' record of 5-18, .217%)
Ravens tracker update time!

Ravens:
Game 1 (@ Steelers, finished 9-7): 0 points, 193 yards passing, 30 yards rushing, 223 total yards
Game 2 (vs. Jacksonville, finished 7-9): 36 points, 375 yards passing, 46 yards rushing, 421 total yards
Game 3 (@ Miami, finished 11-5): 19 points, 152 yards passing, 106 yards rushing, 258 total yards
Game 4 (vs Cincinnati, finished 4-12): 0 points, 90 yards passing, 4 yards rushing, 94 total yards
Game 5 (@ Cleveland, finished 3-13): 0 points, 207 yards passing, 23 yards rushing, 230 total yards
Game 6 (@ Jacksonville, finished 7-9): 10 points, 253 yards passing, 95 yards rushing, 348 total yards
Totals: 65 points, 1,270 yards passing, 304 yards rushing, 1,574 total yards, total opponents' record of 41-55, .427%)

Pats:
Game 1 (vs Steelers, currently 1-4): 3 points, 276 yards passing, 32 yards rushing, 308 total yards
Game 2 (@ Miami, currently 0-4): 0 points, 142 yards passing, 42 yards rushing, 184 total yards
Game 3 (vs Jets, currently 0-4): 14 points, 69 yards passing, 36 yards rushing, 105 total yards
Game 4 (at Bills, currently 4-1): 10 points, 240 yards passing, 135 yards rushing, 375 total yards
Game 5 (at Washington, currently 0-5): 7 points, 75 yards passing, 145 yards rushing, 220 total yards
Game 6 (vs. Giants, currently 2-4): 14 points, 161 yards passing, 52 yards rushing, 213 total yards
Total: 48 points, 966 yards passing, 442 yards rushing, 1,408 total yards, total opponents' record of 7-22, .241%)
 

tims4wins

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Red zone update:

The Giants didn't run a play in the red zone. That makes 3 of 6 games where the Pats haven't allowed a single play inside the red zone.

Total plays inside the red zone by game:
Washington: 0
Buffalo: 9
NYJ: 0
Miami: 1
Pittsburgh: 5

15 total plays inside the red zone.

Total breakdown:

2-6 passing, 9 yards, 1 INT, 2.8 rating, 1 sack, 0 yards lost
8 carries for 19 yards, 1 TD, 2.38 YPC
Total: 15 plays, 28 yards (1.87 YPP), 1 TD, 1 INT
 

tims4wins

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Plus 50 update

The Pats have only allowed 87 plays on their side of the field in 6 games (14.5 per game):

QBs are 17-59 (28.8% - not a misprint!) for 193 yards, 7 picks, and 8 sacks for -44 yards. Passer rating of 1.1. ONE POINT ONE
RBs have 20 carries for 47 yards (2.35 YPC) and 1 TD
Total: 87 plays for 196 yards, 2.25 YPP (!!!)

Nearly as many sacks + picks (15) as completions (17)

Edit: I did it wrong
 
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