Looks quite likely, except for the only 3 safeties part (Ebner doesn't count). I think another real safety has to be added in and someone else has to go (Hoyer? Burkhead? King? Ebner? a TE?).
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2019 Pats: Roster Projection 2.0
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
- Start date
Yes, that's possible. I agree with Bedard that Thomas off the PUP is no lock to make the team over Harris. I also think Crossen stays and someone else gets dealt.
I am not convinced Dorsett is gone. I think he and Thomas fight for a playoff spot. Dorsett is younger and knows the system, and I think Brady desperately wants MORE people he trusts vs less. Thomas is a better all around receiver but he is older and is new to the system. I am not convinced either has an edge right now
I'm all in on cutting Hoyer if it means saving a decent player that adds depth at another position.
I realize there's more salary tied up in Hoyer, so there is that.
But what does the scenario look like where keeping Hoyer over Stidham is likely to matter? Do we feel good about Hoyer winning a big game against a good team?
I realize there's more salary tied up in Hoyer, so there is that.
But what does the scenario look like where keeping Hoyer over Stidham is likely to matter? Do we feel good about Hoyer winning a big game against a good team?
I like Bedard's list but don't see King and Ebner both making the roster. Too much talent on the roster to have two guys who play like 99% of their snaps in special teams (on a team that will already have Bolden and Slater doing the same).
One thing is for sure, I don't envy Belichick.
I also don't think Berrios makes the team unless it's assumed he's the primary returner.
One thing is for sure, I don't envy Belichick.
I also don't think Berrios makes the team unless it's assumed he's the primary returner.
Those guys actually play though, as opposed to and extra defensive end or offensive lineman that will be healthy scratches.
So weird to me people still don't place value on good special teamers. If Ebner is healthy, he's a lock for me.
I agree with bsj above on Thomas/Dorsett. I don't think Thomas is a lock to make the roster and think him coming off of PUP is a negative for him. Thought his best shot was to keep on the rehab the next couple months and come in mid-season as a replacement for whoever else gets hurt/suspended at that point. I'd still make Dorsett a solid favorite to make the team over Thomas, and definitely over Berrios.
Weirder still is that they make predictions that assume BB doesn't value good special teamers. It's not inherently wrong to keep, say, Cowart (likely inactive developmental DT) over Ebner but there's sure as heck not a lot of evidence that BB is going to ever field a team that doesn't have four+ players who are going to play on 3 or more teams units.
Yeah, I've never really understood the binky status that Berrios has with some people here. I also don't really follow college, so maybe his tape there is much better than anything he's done in a Pats uniform. Which has been decidedly unimpressive, imho.
He totally strikes me as a JAG/replacement level guy. No way would I keep him over Dorsett. It's not like Dorsett is a world beater or anything, but at least we've seen him make big plays in big games, while Berrios has struggled in pre-season against backups.
After the Super Bowl Albert Breer had a big article discussing how critical Hoyer had been to the team's preparation by simulating Goff in practices, pointing out flaws in the Pats' defensive approach, etc. Not saying that alone is reason enough to keep him, but, if the Pats do keep him, I suspect this behind-the-scenes stuff would be a huge reason why vs. his actual on-field ability.
I think w/ how solid this roster and the depth is they'd have a shot at winning with Hoyer. Stidham's processing speed right now isn't there. He's getting there and he looks great for a rookie but I would rather have Hoyer if Brady went down.
Berrios is an interesting topic.
In his favor: special teams return ability, success against zone, and athletically he is the closest to Edelman's profile in the slot. He has made improvement from year 1's camp showing that he can improve (not everyone does).
Against: struggles vs man, he still needs to work on his breaks and route running. For example, Hoyer might not have made a good throw but Berrios was drifting and had no separation anyway on Hoyer's int to him. He has also at least once ran the wrong route in practice.
With those drawbacks I do have some questions about how much he can contribute as a slot receiver this year.
Quick edit: there are flashes with Berrios. His whip route in pre-season game 1 was perfect.
Berrios is an interesting topic.
In his favor: special teams return ability, success against zone, and athletically he is the closest to Edelman's profile in the slot. He has made improvement from year 1's camp showing that he can improve (not everyone does).
Against: struggles vs man, he still needs to work on his breaks and route running. For example, Hoyer might not have made a good throw but Berrios was drifting and had no separation anyway on Hoyer's int to him. He has also at least once ran the wrong route in practice.
With those drawbacks I do have some questions about how much he can contribute as a slot receiver this year.
Quick edit: there are flashes with Berrios. His whip route in pre-season game 1 was perfect.
Agreed re: Dorsett’s status. He knows this offense, keeps his head down, never whines and has value in speed and routes. I really wish he could have stepped up and shown his worth with touchdowns in each AFC playoff game last year. Oh wait, he did. To think he would be cut or traded for a 7th round draft pick to keep Berrios or a broken Thomas who has one practice with this team is silly IMO.
,,,
So I have...
Berrios v Dorsett v Thomas (two survivors--Berrios PS eligible)
Ferentz v Karas
Croston v Skipper
LaCosse v Izzo
Roberts v King
Dawson v Crosson v Melifonwu v Harmon (one survivor--all but Harmon PS eligible)
Pennel v Wise v Rivers (two survivors unless Rivers to IR or PS or Wise to PS)
So I have...
Berrios v Dorsett v Thomas (two survivors--Berrios PS eligible)
Ferentz v Karas
Croston v Skipper
LaCosse v Izzo
Roberts v King
Dawson v Crosson v Melifonwu v Harmon (one survivor--all but Harmon PS eligible)
Pennel v Wise v Rivers (two survivors unless Rivers to IR or PS or Wise to PS)
@lambeau I am not sure it is LaCosse vs Izzo at TE. LaCosse is a better blocker than Kendricks I think but both are more receivers vs blockers. Izzo is more of a blocker only with limited seam-stretching ability but he doesn't have the speed to beat linebackers there. I do think they keep Izzo or a blocking TE type as well as Watson (sus) but I am not sure they carry any of the receiving tight ends they currently have including LaCosse.
QB (3) T.Brady, B.Hoyer, J.Stidham
RB (6) S.Michel, J.Develin, R.Burkhead, J.White, D.Harris, B.Bolden
WR (7) J.Edelman, J.Gordon, N.Harry, J.Meyers, D.Thomas, P.Dorsett, M.Slater
TE (2) M.LaCosse, R.Izzo
C (1) D.Andrews
G (4) S.Mason, J.Thuney, T.Karras, H.Froholdt
T (3) M.Cannon, I.Wynn, D.Skipper
DE (4) M.Bennett, D.Wise, J.Simon, C.Winovich
DT (4) L.Guy, D.Shelton, A.Butler, B.Cowart
ILB(3) J.Bentley, E.Roberts, B.King
OLB(3) D.Hightower, K.VanNoy, J.Collins
CB (6) S.Gilmore, J.McCourty, J.Jackson, J.Williams, J.Jones, K.Crossen
SS (1) P.Chung
FS (3) D.McCourty, T.Brooks, D.Harmon
ST (3) S.Gostkowski, J.Bailey, J.Cardona
Total players: 53
Created with Pats Picker: http://patsfans.com/patspicker
This is tough. I have a list of who I think is safe (not going to be traded and should be a roster lock):
QB (2) T.Brady, J.Stidham
RB (5) S.Michel, J.Develin, J.White, D.Harris, B.Bolden
WR (5) J.Edelman, J.Gordon, N.Harry, J.Meyers, M.Slater
TE (0) I am not sure which one(s) get the spot or if it's someone not currently on the team.
C (1) D.Andrews
G (4) S.Mason, J.Thuney, H.Froholdt, Karras
T (2) M.Cannon, I.Wynn, (Skipper or someone not currently on the team will be a 3rd tackle spot)
DE (4) M.Bennett, D.Wise, J.Simon, C.Winovich
DT (3) L.Guy, D.Shelton, A.Butler
ILB(1) J.Bentley
OLB(3) D.Hightower, K.VanNoy, J.Collins
CB (5) S.Gilmore, J.McCourty, J.Jackson, J.Williams, J.Jones,
SS (1) P.Chung
FS (2) D.McCourty, T.Brooks
ST (3) S.Gostkowski, J.Bailey, J.Cardona
That's 41 spots. This is brutal.
RB (6) S.Michel, J.Develin, R.Burkhead, J.White, D.Harris, B.Bolden
WR (7) J.Edelman, J.Gordon, N.Harry, J.Meyers, D.Thomas, P.Dorsett, M.Slater
TE (2) M.LaCosse, R.Izzo
C (1) D.Andrews
G (4) S.Mason, J.Thuney, T.Karras, H.Froholdt
T (3) M.Cannon, I.Wynn, D.Skipper
DE (4) M.Bennett, D.Wise, J.Simon, C.Winovich
DT (4) L.Guy, D.Shelton, A.Butler, B.Cowart
ILB(3) J.Bentley, E.Roberts, B.King
OLB(3) D.Hightower, K.VanNoy, J.Collins
CB (6) S.Gilmore, J.McCourty, J.Jackson, J.Williams, J.Jones, K.Crossen
SS (1) P.Chung
FS (3) D.McCourty, T.Brooks, D.Harmon
ST (3) S.Gostkowski, J.Bailey, J.Cardona
Total players: 53
Created with Pats Picker: http://patsfans.com/patspicker
This is tough. I have a list of who I think is safe (not going to be traded and should be a roster lock):
QB (2) T.Brady, J.Stidham
RB (5) S.Michel, J.Develin, J.White, D.Harris, B.Bolden
WR (5) J.Edelman, J.Gordon, N.Harry, J.Meyers, M.Slater
TE (0) I am not sure which one(s) get the spot or if it's someone not currently on the team.
C (1) D.Andrews
G (4) S.Mason, J.Thuney, H.Froholdt, Karras
T (2) M.Cannon, I.Wynn, (Skipper or someone not currently on the team will be a 3rd tackle spot)
DE (4) M.Bennett, D.Wise, J.Simon, C.Winovich
DT (3) L.Guy, D.Shelton, A.Butler
ILB(1) J.Bentley
OLB(3) D.Hightower, K.VanNoy, J.Collins
CB (5) S.Gilmore, J.McCourty, J.Jackson, J.Williams, J.Jones,
SS (1) P.Chung
FS (2) D.McCourty, T.Brooks
ST (3) S.Gostkowski, J.Bailey, J.Cardona
That's 41 spots. This is brutal.
Last year the Patriots were in 11 personnel 43% of the time (league avg was 54%).
Without Watson the state of the tight ends is ugly. 10 personnel is growing on me. Last year 1% of plays were in 10 personnel with Seattle the leaders at 12%. It's the Patriots so you can't say never but I wouldn't expect them to be in 10 much more than 5%-10% but they have some unique advantages in it with their roster.
Thomas is around 225-230, same with Gordon and Harry. Harry and Thomas have shown good run blocking and I liked what I saw from Gordon last year in that department. Jules can block well against DBs but he's only 225-230 in the nuts and the heart #compete.
Burkhead, Harris, White, and maybe this year Michel can line up as a receiver. So your receivers in 10 can all run block and your RB will be able to run routes. I like the potential mismatches running against dime.
Without Watson the state of the tight ends is ugly. 10 personnel is growing on me. Last year 1% of plays were in 10 personnel with Seattle the leaders at 12%. It's the Patriots so you can't say never but I wouldn't expect them to be in 10 much more than 5%-10% but they have some unique advantages in it with their roster.
Thomas is around 225-230, same with Gordon and Harry. Harry and Thomas have shown good run blocking and I liked what I saw from Gordon last year in that department. Jules can block well against DBs but he's only 225-230 in the nuts and the heart #compete.
Burkhead, Harris, White, and maybe this year Michel can line up as a receiver. So your receivers in 10 can all run block and your RB will be able to run routes. I like the potential mismatches running against dime.
Putting both Izzo and LaCosse on the roster costs a spot elsewhere, and you demote one anyway when Watson is eligible.
Hard to make DL decisions without knowing the nature of Pennel's difficulties--along with Guy the top-rated tackle in the division last year by PFF. Yes, Shelton is back,but big boys get tired.
The Berrios question seems to come down to him as a returner--unless his potential as a slot receiver is considered greater than is currently obvious. I'm all for not risking Jules as a returner, but BB doesn't seem to think like that, and as a receiver I think Dorsett has earned a spot.
Hard to make DL decisions without knowing the nature of Pennel's difficulties--along with Guy the top-rated tackle in the division last year by PFF. Yes, Shelton is back,but big boys get tired.
The Berrios question seems to come down to him as a returner--unless his potential as a slot receiver is considered greater than is currently obvious. I'm all for not risking Jules as a returner, but BB doesn't seem to think like that, and as a receiver I think Dorsett has earned a spot.
I think we might see a lot of 20 personnel. With no TE, Develin could line up in the backfield or in a flanker type spot up near the tackles.
I think the best clue to what BB will do with such a crap group of TE options comes from the weeks when Gronk was out last year (CHI, GB, and TEN games) and he also had a crap group of TE options, at least from a receiving perspective. The answer then was to play a lot of 11 personnel and to give heavy snaps to a blocking TE (mainly Allen) who was largely a decoy in the passing game (he got like one target a game, but somebody still had to cover him). While 10 personnel is fun to think about, my bet is on BB taking a similar approach.
20 personnel (is that even how you'd label it?). White and Burkhead/Harris/Michel in the backfield, and three WRs - Edelman, Gordon, Thomas/Dorsett/Meyers/whomever - on the outside. Two guys can run (plus the end-arounds), both RBs can block, you can immediately spread them all out wide (maybe Michel couldn't do this but the rest of the RBs can). Lots of options.
I don't think they'll do it but they could be pretty creative like that.
I don't think they'll do it but they could be pretty creative like that.
I mostly agree with you, but what gives me pause is that they really haven't added a blocking TE. Izzo is probably the best on paper, but he hasn't played much or really done anything in the preseason. If he gets some run tomorrow night with Brady and the ones, that will tell us something. I don't think they're done at TE. But forget about Gronk, they don't even have a Dwayne Allen.
Oh I agree with you there. 10 is a fun experiment but again not expecting more than the single digits % at most for use.
Last year they only had 11 offensive snaps without a tight end on the field. Tight end is important. I expect a lot of 11 and 21 just like last year (80% of snaps last year in 11 and 21). Like @Super Nomario said though who is this decent blocking TE? They don't need a star. They need a tight end who is a good blocker and , ideally, can beat an LB down the seam. Watson fits the bill. Until he comes back though...?
I agree with this on Thomas - I was surprised to see him come off PUP for this reason.
Why? Emmanuel Sanders returned recently from the same injury to game action 8.5 months later. It's still a possibility that Thomas is not ready to play Week 1, but if he's close enough where he can come back in the first month of the season then they had to take him off PUP.
Check out his contract:
View: https://twitter.com/AlbertBreer/status/1118509400560492544
$150K to sign. $150K reporting bonus. $1.2 million base. $1.406 million in per-game rosters. $750K for 60 catches. $750K for 800 yards. $750K for 1000 yards. $750K for 1200 yards.
He needs to play 16 games or close to it to have a shot at those incentives, and he loses almost $90-something K in roster bonuses for every game he sits out. So he's got every incentive to get on the field sooner rather than later.
Does coming off PUP hurt his chance of making the Patriots' roster? Maybe, but getting preseason reps lets him show off for other teams.
Couldn't they hire him on as a coach then? Or does he still think he'll be an everyday player somewhere if Stidham would be Brady's backup?
I could say "exactly"
But just to be more clear I will post this
https://lifehacker.com/how-to-develop-your-sense-of-humor-1690680308
I imagine the Hoyer would expect -- as do I -- that there is plenty of demand for a backup QB in this league of his skill level. And I would guess that backup QB pay is far greater $$$ than QB coach, let alone Asst QB coach.
What, June Jones taking SMU back to a bowl game and winning didn't move the needle for you @E5 Yaz ?
You're talking about a man who won games such as these:
The 2009 Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
The 2012 BBVA Compass Bowl
The 2012 Sheraton Hawaii Bowl (incidentally winning twice got him platinum status with Sheraton)
Edit: full disclosure: the above is a joke. I didn't watch the video but I hope I did it ok.
You're talking about a man who won games such as these:
The 2009 Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
The 2012 BBVA Compass Bowl
The 2012 Sheraton Hawaii Bowl (incidentally winning twice got him platinum status with Sheraton)
Edit: full disclosure: the above is a joke. I didn't watch the video but I hope I did it ok.
Our TE dilemma is the reason. As is 4/5 wide talk (that amounts to anything more then a dozen plays all season).
But...
Mouse Won the 1973 Oregon HS state Championship.
And the Davis OFFENSE (he left the team previous to the opener) won the 71st Grey Cup in '83! After losing to Moon and the Eskimos in the 70th Grey Cup.
Redemption.
So it wouldnt be out of order to suggest BB take notice of his bonafides and learn something.
I wasn't surprised Thomas wanted to get off of PUP, even though I don't think the incentives matter that much. I'd give him a near zero shot to get the ones for receptions/yardage. I was surprised he came off PUP because the Patriots wouldn't want him to.
As to the Sanders example cited, Thomas is probably near the minimum recovery time needed. Then add in he's never played in this system, and he's way behind all the players at the position who've been getting reps all off-season.
It might be best for Thomas, he surely thinks he's ready to play now. I just think it makes it less likely that he'll be playing here.
I don't think they have any choice.
Thomas did play for McDaniels in his rookie season in 2010, followed by two more seasons under OC Mike McCoy, presumably running some variant of the same, and he played half a season under Bill O'Brien in Houston last year. So he's got to build up some familiarity, but I'd imagine it's not totally foreign to him.
He caught 32 'passes' from Tim Tebow one year. (out of 70 'targets.'). Makes him superman in my book.
I know they don't. If he says he's ready to go, they have to take him off PUP
All I said was I think it's less likely his future is here since he came off PUP.
I don't fault him for wanting to get off PUP, I was just a bit surprised that they hadn't gotten him on board
It's just a guess from me, but I'd guess they would have rather he felt he wasn't ready to go just yet so they could bring him back later. Don't think the Pats are particularly worried about September and would let them keep an extra guy.
Also not as worried about Thomas picking up the system as I'd be having him earn Bradys' trust. Especially since Brady has already been building it with other receivers when Thomas wasn't available.
I don't get the Thomas over Berrios argument. Besides the achilles injury, Thomas does not contribute to ST, and is on a clear 3-year decline:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/ThomDe03.htm
Berrios' ceiling as a receiver may not be high but looks to be a capable return man on a team that clearly needs one.
With Gordon & Harry on board, I'm taking Berrios over DT every time.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/ThomDe03.htm
Berrios' ceiling as a receiver may not be high but looks to be a capable return man on a team that clearly needs one.
With Gordon & Harry on board, I'm taking Berrios over DT every time.
He's been with the team the whole offseason in the film room and taking mental reps on the sideline. Of course it's not the same as taking it onto the practice field, but he's at the same point mentally as the rest of the new players.
It wouldn't make sense to sign Thomas to that contract if that was their intention.
We'll see. It's happened quickly before. 90-something% of guys who "couldn't earn Brady's trust" turned out to just washed up - also a real danger with Thomas.
Things have changed a bit since they signed him, no?
N'Keal Harry and Jakobi Meyers weren't here at the time. And Josh Gordon was under suspension.
I cannot see Demaryius trying to make the team over the next week, leaving open the prospect of scrambling for a job on cutdown day--and BB wouldn't do that to a vet.So I think he'thinks he's in.
I would guess Berrios could make the pracrice squad--how many teams don't have their returner?
And I think they keep Dorsett as a well-liked dependable backup and put Harris on IR, unless he wants out..
I would guess Berrios could make the pracrice squad--how many teams don't have their returner?
And I think they keep Dorsett as a well-liked dependable backup and put Harris on IR, unless he wants out..