2019 Pats: Undefeated Season Watch

[Time to Mo Vaughn]

Yeah, I'm starting it, since there's no way in hell that a message board thread is going to have an impact on the season.

The Patriots are one game short of halfway through the regular season, still undefeated, and appear to have a historically good team led by a historically good defense. Their +175 margin of victory is the highest ever through 7 games (No I'm not including the 1920 Buffalo All-Americans), and quite ahead of the 2007 Patriots (+159). The schedule is about to get tougher, but let's look at the records of this horrific schedule they have to face: Browns (2-4), Ravens (5-2), Eagles (3-4), Cowboys (4-3), Texans(4-3), Chiefs(5-2), Bengals(0-7), Bills(5-1), Dolphins(0-6). All of these teams have looked dreadful throughout the season. The Ravens were blown out by the Browns at home, and barely survived overtime against the Steelers on the 3rd string QB. It is left to be seen whether Mahomes can return from a dislocated kneecap and how he'll be impacted if he can play. We saw the impact of an ankle injury that limited his mobility.

I know some of you will sit back and say, "I don't care about a perfect season, I just want the team rested and healthy for the playoffs." Fuck that. I want this. 2007 still hurts. I went to the final game of the regular season against the Giants and it's still the most fun sporting event I've ever been to in my life. Fuck the 72 Dolphins. I want them to see their place in history knocked off while most of them are still alive. I want Belichick, Brady and this franchise to have one more record in their pockets. I want the FU to the NFL for the continuous penalization of draft picks and to mock all of the efforts around parity that the Patriots continue to laugh at. And I want to enjoy the tasty tears of fans across the entire league.

 

[Red Averages]

Oh this thread should end well.

 

[johnmd20]

19-0. It's happening.

 

[tims4wins]

FO has 16-0 odds at 12.5%

 

[lexrageorge]

19-0 is kind of like 100 wins. We all wanted it, even though it was secondary to a title. And it was absolutely satisfying when it not only happened, but happened in the manner in which it did.

But this is football, so I see two roadblocks:

a.) At Eagles. Philly will be home coming off a bye. So will be the Pats, but I see this game as being one of those WTF games that this team seems to have every season. In 2007, they sort of had one against the Eagles at home, and definitely had one in Baltimore, a game they actually lost had the Ravens not called a last millisecond timeout, or had the Pats not been penalized for a false start on the very next play.

b.) Home against Dolphins. The only reason this one is at all here is that it's unclear how much Belichick will want to risk putting a 42 year old Tom Brady and a banged up Julian Edelman out there on a game that is almost certain to mean nothing otherwise. The Pats did play all out against the Giants in 2007, but the circumstances were different. Then again, the Pats could probably play their practice squad against Miami and still win.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

NOPE.

PM me if you think this should be unlocked.

 

[bankshot1]

My first thought upon seeing the title, was "kiss of death".

GO PATS

The Ravens Sunday night game is of interest and holds the possibilty of ruining the week-end.

EDIT-I got locked out before I voted, so in keeping with the spirit of GOPATS, went with 19-0

 

[InstaFace]

Too soon. Get past game 9 and we can talk. Or at least when they are the only undefeated team

I could live with that. 12-0 seems to be waiting a bit too long given when the drumbeat will start, but as long as there's another undefeated team it's hard to take the notion too seriously.

This list is instructive. Looks like the list of 7-0 teams (with help here) since the merger include 33 teams prior to this year:

- All 33 teams made the playoffs; 16 (48%) went on to play in the super bowl, and 9 (27%) won it.
- 2015 had FOUR such teams (Broncos, Patriots, Panthers and Bengals?!), of which two ended up contesting the super bowl

The list of teams since the merger that went even as much as 10-0 is a lot smaller, just 14 in now the 50th season:

- 1972 MIA (finished 17-0, * won SB)
- 1975 MIN (lost 11th game, finished 12-2)
- 1984 MIA (lost 12th game, finished 14-2)
- 1985 CHI (lost 13th game, finished 15-1*)
- 1990 SFO (lost 11th game, finished 14-2)
- 1990 NYG (lost 11th game, finished 13-3*)
- 1991 WAS (lost 12th game, finished 14-2*)
- 1998 DEN (lost 14th game, finished 14-2*)
- 2005 IND (lost 14th game, finished 14-2)
- 2007 NE (unclear how the season ended)
- 2008 TEN (lost 11th game, finished 13-3)
- 2009 IND (lost 15th game, finished 14-2)
- 2011 GNB (lost 14th game, finished 15-1)
- 2015 CAR (lost 15th game, finished 15-1)

 

[tims4wins]

Per FO, the Pats have a higher chance of going undefeated than a dozen teams do of making the playoffs. That's insane.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Thread unlocked again & moved a couple of relevant posts over from the poll thread.

 

[brandonchristensen]

Fuck it, going in on 19-0.

 

[jablo1312]

Their shortest point spread will probably be @ Bal where they'll be ~3 point favorites FWIW.

Jeez you people are acting like "nO sUpEr BoWlS sInCe SpYgAtE" is still a thing. They've won 3 of the last 5, place in history secured. Attack history and dare to be immortal, IMO.

 

[axx]

Not ready to go there. After Eagles yes.

 

[Pandemonium67]

Thanks for putting this thread up to vote and re-opening it. I plan to use it as porn. I want to wrap myself up in soft linen sheets with this Pats team and hump till I'm limp.

FWIW, I voted they lose to the Texans in Houston, but only as a reverse jinx. To me 19-0 would be better than, say, 17-2 with a SB win, but only a little.

 

[Time to Mo Vaughn]

Appreciate the thread being re-opened @SeoulSoxFan !

Here are the Patriots win probabilities and spreads for each game per 538. I think their methods have flaws, but I don't know other sites that break it down game by game.

Week 8 - Cleveland 84% (-11.5)
Week 9 - @Baltimore 56% (-2)
Week 10 - Bye
Week 11 - @Philadelphia 69% (-5.5)
Week 12 - Dallas 77% (-8.5)
Week 13 - @Houston 63% (-3.5)
Week 14 - KC 70% (-6)
Week 15 - @Cincy 89% (-14.5)
Week 16 - Buffalo 80% (-10)
Week 17 - Miami 93% (-18)

Those numbers give the Patriots a 7.3% chance of finishing the regular season 16-0, which is a bit lower than the 12% that FO has them per Tim4Wins. If they are undefeated past Houston it becomes close to a coin flip (46.3%).

Seems most people and the projections agree that @Baltimore in two weeks is going to be their biggest test of the season. Ravens appear to be a very hot cold team. They crushed the Dolphins in week 1 just like pretty much everybody else. They then narrowly beat the Cardinals, Steelers and Bengals, while barely losing to the Chiefs and getting blown out by the Browns. Last week they looked great over Seattle, beating them by two TDs. We also have the misfortune that the Ravens have their bye and this week off ahead of our game in two weeks.

 

[Seels]

I think if they make it by Baltimore they're taking the whole thing.

The holdups prior to Baltimore are the health and how ingrained Sanu / Harry / Wynn are.

They aren't losing to this Philly team that can't play defense.

KC can neither play defense or run the ball. Even with Mahomes healthy I don't see that as a hard game.

I think they lose to Baltimore, then phone it in against Buffalo later in the year.

 

[McBride11]

Should have kept it locked because superstitions are real. Just like ghosts are real, which we know is true because Darnold admitted to seeing them all nite

 

[Pablo's TB Lover]

I was at the scene of the crime in Arizona for 18-1, nothing this year could crush me like that. The 2007 season seemed like an unbeatable team, but there were signs down the stretch the team was getting exhausted over the undefeated talk. I did not remember until looking that the first chink in the armor was not the hard fought game in Baltimore Week 13, but the previous week they trailed in the 4th quarter before going ahead at home versus an AJ Feeley-led Eagles team.

This year's team I feel is quite a flawed team on the offensive side of the ball pre-Sanu at least (although unbelievably still having the most points thanks to return TDs, field position from D turnovers, etc.). And the defense has some guys that historically can get injured for several games at a time. So in the moment, I am much less confident about this team running the table. And accordingly voted for a loss in Week 9 at Baltimore. It feels like that is a game Tom can get careless with the ball due to pressure and put the Pats' great defense in a hole and having to contain Lamar in the red zone where his scrambling has been outstanding this year.

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

I am a conscientious objector to this thread.

 

[queenb]

Appreciate the thread being re-opened @SeoulSoxFan !

Here are the Patriots win probabilities and spreads for each game per 538. I think their methods have flaws, but I don't know other sites that break it down game by game.

Week 8 - Cleveland 84% (-11.5)
Week 9 - @Baltimore 56% (-2)
Week 10 - Bye
Week 11 - @Philadelphia 69% (-5.5)
Week 12 - Dallas 77% (-8.5)
Week 13 - @Houston 63% (-3.5)
Week 14 - KC 70% (-6)
Week 15 - @Cincy 89% (-14.5)
Week 16 - Buffalo 80% (-10)
Week 17 - Miami 93% (-18)

Those numbers give the Patriots a 7.3% chance of finishing the regular season 16-0, which is a bit lower than the 12% that FO has them per Tim4Wins. If they are undefeated past Houston it becomes close to a coin flip (46.3%).

Seems most people and the projections agree that @Baltimore in two weeks is going to be their biggest test of the season. Ravens appear to be a very hot cold team. They crushed the Dolphins in week 1 just like pretty much everybody else. They then narrowly beat the Cardinals, Steelers and Bengals, while barely losing to the Chiefs and getting blown out by the Browns. Last week they looked great over Seattle, beating them by two TDs. We also have the misfortune that the Ravens have their bye and this week off ahead of our game in two weeks.

I expect the Cowboys line to come down and the Ravens and Texans lines to go up. Jackson can extend drives with his legs and Watson is a gamer but -2 and -3.5 seem low considering how insane the Pats D is. But agree that Ravens are the scariest even if the Cowboys and Chiefs with a healthy Mahomes are the best overall teams left on the schedule.

 

[djbayko]

Should have kept it locked because superstitions are real. Just like ghosts are real, which we know is true because Darnold admitted to seeing them all nite

Isuppose you also believe in the Boogeymaen?

 

[BigSoxFan]

I voted Ravens because I’m still scarred from that absolute ref hose job back in like 2011 or so. Lamar scares me. They may be able to run on us.

 

[snowmanny]

If they are 15-0 they will have the #1 seed locked up. And unless the Bills are also running the table it will probably be locked up at 13-0. (Ed: I believe it would be, absent Bills being in contention).

If they actually went for 16-0 at that point it would be incredibly unpleasant to watch.

Just do whatever to improve the odds for #7.

 

[sheamonu]

I am a conscientious objector to this thread.

Me too - All we are saying - please lock this thread.

 

[Seels]

I voted Ravens because I’m still scarred from that absolute ref hose job back in like 2011 or so. Lamar scares me. They may be able to run on us.

Worst officiating I've ever seen in a game. Pissed me off that Fail Mary had more coverage than that fucking shitshow.

 

[InstaFace]

I was at the scene of the crime in Arizona for 18-1, nothing this year could crush me like that. The 2007 season seemed like an unbeatable team, but there were signs down the stretch the team was getting exhausted over the undefeated talk. I did not remember until looking that the first chink in the armor was not the hard fought game in Baltimore Week 13, but the previous week they trailed in the 4th quarter before going ahead at home versus an AJ Feeley-led Eagles team.

This year's team I feel is quite a flawed team on the offensive side of the ball pre-Sanu at least (although unbelievably still having the most points thanks to return TDs, field position from D turnovers, etc.). And the defense has some guys that historically can get injured for several games at a time. So in the moment, I am much less confident about this team running the table. And accordingly voted for a loss in Week 9 at Baltimore. It feels like that is a game Tom can get careless with the ball due to pressure and put the Pats' great defense in a hole and having to contain Lamar in the red zone where his scrambling has been outstanding this year.

We're certainly wiser, 12 years on, about the extent to which these possibilities are realistic. After the first few weeks (hell, the first half of the season) in 2007, the prevailing attitude was basically "HOLY CRAP CAN YOU BELIEVE THESE GUYS, I NEED TO CALL THE COPS AND REPORT A MURDER". We'd never seen anything like Prime Brady + Moss + Welker + Great OL play. Nobody had ever seen anything like that. Those first 10 games blinded us to what the following 8 revealed about the season-long trend.

For me, this is the white whale of a goal for the Brady and Belichick dynasty. I have a hard time conceiving of how another team in the salary cap era could even come close to a 19-0 run. After 20 years of watching them constantly be greater than the sum of their parts, constantly seize victory from the jaws of defeat, constantly take advantage of opponents' errors... it's frankly easy to be a fan of the Patriots, and has been since Kraft took over. This quest is about the only thing we can reasonably present as a challenge to them. Belichick and Brady and the whole team are obviously never thinking in these terms, they famously focus one game at a time, it's their mantra. But we as fans, that's about what we got.

 

[InstaFace]

If they are 15-0 they will have the #1 seed locked up. And unless the Bills are also running the table it will probably be locked up at 13-0. (Ed: I believe it would be, absent Bills being in contention).

If they actually went for 16-0 at that point it would be incredibly unpleasant to watch.

If they get to 15-0, game #16 against the Dolphins will be one of the easiest tasks that Belichick has ever faced on a football field.

Game #15 against the Bills will be a great final test, if indeed they get that far without a loss (and I agree at least one loss is still quite likely), but after that you'd have, essentially, two bye weeks to get healthy without getting rusty. I doubt they'd take more than the Miami game "off" in terms of resting those of iffy health.

 

[Ralphwiggum]

During the BB/TB era they have won 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14 and 16 games so 15-1 feels right to round out all of the above .500 record options. I voted Ravens.

 

[McBride11]

Isuppose you also believe in the Boogeymaen?

Is that what Darnold called Gilmore?

 

[djbayko]

If they are 15-0 they will have the #1 seed locked up. And unless the Bills are also running the table it will probably be locked up at 13-0. (Ed: I believe it would be, absent Bills being in contention).

If they actually went for 16-0 at that point it would be incredibly unpleasant to watch.

Just do whatever to improve the odds for #7.

If they get to 15-0, I can assure you they are going all out for 16-0. The coaches will want it. The players will want it. To not let them do so could have a detrimental effect on their mental states going into the playoffs.

Hell, I'd want it as a fan.

 

[Darnell's Son]

NOPE.

PM me if you think this should be unlocked.

Thread unlocked again & moved a couple of relevant posts over from the poll thread.

Nerves of.... the opposite of steel? Sam Darnold?

 

[Koufax]

Right after the Browns game, someone should send a link to this thread to the Patriots. I would make great locker room billboard material prior to the Ravens game.

 

[TomTerrific]

During the BB/TB era they have won 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14 and 16 games so 15-1 feels right to round out all of the above .500 record options. I voted Ravens.

Hell, if they go 15-1 the Pats as a franchise will have had regular season win totals ranging from 1 all the way up to 16.

I guess 0 is the only missing number, but I’m not too anxious to fill that one in

 

[Laser Show]

Hell, if they go 15-1 the Pats as a franchise will have had regular season win totals ranging from 1 all the way up to 16.

I guess 0 is the only missing number, but I’m not too anxious to fill that one in

15-1 plus a 7th Super Bowl would also give a much more enjoyable meaning to "18-1" too

 

[m0ckduck]

- 2009 IND (lost 15th game, finished 14-2)

It’s jarring to remember how close the Manning-led Colts came to turning the perfect season. They had 16-0 well in hand, but cadaver coach Caldwell sat Manning out of parts of two easily-winnable home games in the last two weeks. Then, they were in control of the SB until it turned on a low-percentage onside kick gambit from Sean Payton. Luckily, the Manning Face surfaced just in time in that one...

Can you imagine if we had to all live in a universe where Manning had helmed the immortal perfect season? Ugh.

Edit: actually the finale was at Buffalo in terrible weather, so maybe not a complete gimme. But Buffalo was terrible that year, so have to believe Indy could have won that one.

 

[johnmd20]

If they are 15-0 they will have the #1 seed locked up. And unless the Bills are also running the table it will probably be locked up at 13-0. (Ed: I believe it would be, absent Bills being in contention).

If they actually went for 16-0 at that point it would be incredibly unpleasant to watch.

Just do whatever to improve the odds for #7.

No. Go for history. What is number 7? Nothing, merely a rounding error at this point. What is 19-0? Historic and an exorcise of the 2007 demons.

19-0! Let's go. Next game up.

 

[johnmd20]

It’s jarring to remember how close the Manning-led Colts came to turning the perfect season. They had 16-0 well in hand, but cadaver coach Caldwell sat Manning out of parts of two easily-winnable home games in the last two weeks. Then, they were in control of the SB until it turned on a low-percentage onside kick gambit from Sean Payton. Luckily, the Manning Face surfaced just in time in that one...

Can you imagine if we had to all live in a universe where Manning had helmed the immortal perfect season? Ugh.

It would have been very tough. I am grateful for both Caldwell and Payton and the Saints and the Pix 6.

 

[tims4wins]

No. Go for history. What is number 7? Nothing, merely a rounding error at this point. What is 19-0? Historic and an exorcise of the 2007 demons.

19-0! Let's go. Next game up.

I know this is semi tongue in cheek, but you know that no franchise has 7 titles right?

 

[johnmd20]

I know this is semi tongue in cheek, but you know that no franchise has 7 titles right?

I know. But going for the undefeated season won't necessarily mean the team won't be in a solid position to win the super bowl. The AFC has maybe 3 teams who have a chance of beating the Pats to the Super Bowl.(Ravens, Chiefs, maybe Bills) And the Pats are unbelievably superior to all three of those teams.

Obviously, the biggest risk in going for 16-0 is injuries. But the team can decide how they want to do that in the last 3 weeks of the season, which is a full month away from the first playoff game.

In the meantime, play every game to crush souls. Why not?

 

[johnmd20]

Seriously, though, imagine this team had Antonio Brown? That would be something to see.

 

[tims4wins]

I know. But going for the undefeated season won't necessarily mean the team won't be in a solid position to win the super bowl. The AFC has maybe 3 teams who have a chance of beating the Pats to the Super Bowl.(Ravens, Chiefs, maybe Bills) And the Pats are unbelievably superior to all three of those teams.

Obviously, the biggest risk in going for 16-0 is injuries. But the team can decide how they want to do that in the last 3 weeks of the season, which is a full month away from the first playoff game.

In the meantime, play every game to crush souls. Why not?

I don't think undefeated has a bearing one way or the other on how the season turns out, I agree there. I don't think the pressure of being undefeated led to the Scottish Game - it was much more about the O line, Brady being a bit hobbled, etc. If anything, we should reflect back on 2007 and remember how incredibly fortunate that team was to actually end up 16-0. It took a serious of small miracles against the Ravens, and there were some other really tight games down the stretch as well (the Eagles game comes to mind).

This time around, the D is just ridiculously stout. The only 3 scores they've allowed were on a 65 yard pass where the CB got his hands on the ball; a 65 yard run where the DBs basically didn't even attempt to tackle for whatever reason; and a 1 yard plunge on 4th and 1 that made it by an inch. It is borderline impossible to drive the field against them. That alone gives them a shot to win every single week.

The offense, obviously, isn't close to 2007. Due to that, there will likely be a slip-up along the way. But maybe not. It's going to be fun to track.

The best part about their current position is that it doesn't feel like one key loss could ruin the possibility of hosting the AFCCG, like it did last year.

 

[Bellhorn]

It’s jarring to remember how close the Manning-led Colts came to turning the perfect season. They had 16-0 well in hand, but cadaver coach Caldwell sat Manning out of parts of two easily-winnable home games in the last two weeks. Then, they were in control of the SB until it turned on a low-percentage onside kick gambit from Sean Payton. Luckily, the Manning Face surfaced just in time in that one...

Can you imagine if we had to all live in a universe where Manning had helmed the immortal perfect season? Ugh.

Especially when one of those games hinged on a shitty third down play call followed by an even shittier spot of the ball on 4th down.

 

[RoDaddy]

Why stop at 19-0 for this amazing defense-led team?! 38-0 this season and next

 

[axx]

After seeing the Browns game, I think they will drop one as I think the offense will let them down at least once.

 

[Koufax]

Too soon to tell. They were playing with a short week of practice, having traded away two players that week, taking on a talented team that was coming off of a bye. Yes the looked beatable, but now they have their own bye in which to re-group and heal.

 

[MuppetAsteriskTalk]

Once they stabilize the offensive line the offense will be very good again. So they need to get past the Ravens to the bye then hope Dante does his thing and Wynn comes back ready to play.

 

[Red Averages]

Sanu, Wynn, Harry should all help the offense evolve.
Interested to watch this defense vs. Lamar and the #1 offensive DVOA in rush.

 

[tims4wins]

Short week after a division road game facing a team coming off its bye, down 3 O line starters, in lousy weather, and the Pats were up 3 scores in the 4th. If the defense continues to show up each week it’s going to be really hard to beat them. But they may drop a close, low scoring game.

 

[Ralphwiggum]

Browns had success running the ball. Next week will be a good test on the road.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

Next week is a huge test, and shows why it’s so hard to win in this league, especially when you’re a big dog. This will be Baltimore’s biggest reg season game, prime time, coming off a bye, and their offense is fairly unusual with its emphasis on a true running QB.