2019 Pats: Undefeated Season Watch

When will the Patriots have their first loss of the 2019 season?


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BaseballJones

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Next week is a huge test, and shows why it’s so hard to win in this league, especially when you’re a big dog. This will be Baltimore’s biggest reg season game, prime time, coming off a bye, and their offense is fairly unusual with its emphasis on a true running QB.
Yep and the Pats’ offense still isn’t clicking, and the defense showed a bit of a weak spot that happens to line up with Baltimore’s big strength.

I could easily see the Pats losing next week, though of course, I could also see the D throttling Jackson and causing several turnovers on the way to a double digit win.
 

shoosh77

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This coming game needs to be a Jaime Collins/KVN joint. They should be keep Lamar containers and forcing him to throw in the pocket. Then the secondary can do their thing.
 

staz

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The cradle of the game.
Yeah, I'm starting it, since there's no way in hell that a message board thread is going to have an impact on the season.

The Patriots are one game short of halfway through the regular season, still undefeated, and appear to have a historically good team led by a historically good defense. Their +175 margin of victory is the highest ever through 7 games (No I'm not including the 1920 Buffalo All-Americans), and quite ahead of the 2007 Patriots (+159). The schedule is about to get tougher, but let's look at the records of this horrific schedule they have to face: Browns (2-4), Ravens (5-2), Eagles (3-4), Cowboys (4-3), Texans(4-3), Chiefs(5-2), Bengals(0-7), Bills(5-1), Dolphins(0-6). All of these teams have looked dreadful throughout the season. The Ravens were blown out by the Browns at home, and barely survived overtime against the Steelers on the 3rd string QB. It is left to be seen whether Mahomes can return from a dislocated kneecap and how he'll be impacted if he can play. We saw the impact of an ankle injury that limited his mobility.

I know some of you will sit back and say, "I don't care about a perfect season, I just want the team rested and healthy for the playoffs." Fuck that. I want this. 2007 still hurts. I went to the final game of the regular season against the Giants and it's still the most fun sporting event I've ever been to in my life. Fuck the 72 Dolphins. I want them to see their place in history knocked off while most of them are still alive. I want Belichick, Brady and this franchise to have one more record in their pockets. I want the FU to the NFL for the continuous penalization of draft picks and to mock all of the efforts around parity that the Patriots continue to laugh at. And I want to enjoy the tasty tears of fans across the entire league.
I get every bit of this... when you get a sniff of perfection, you get an appetite for it. I want The Precious and then I want to shove a bottle of champagne down Mercury Morris' throat.

But I think you just win one football game at a time. Keep on putting everything you got into the next opponent. Tunnel vision. I don't care if the AFC is clinched week 14, you put your head down, stay focused and execute every single play to the best of your ability. I really think that's the only way to go 19-0.
 

BigSoxFan

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Next week is really about the offense. The defense will almost certainly do their part. The question is can the offense move the ball against a pretty good but exploitable defense. Really curious to see if Harry is active for the game.
 

RedOctober3829

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Next week is really about the offense. The defense will almost certainly do their part. The question is can the offense move the ball against a pretty good but exploitable defense. Really curious to see if Harry is active for the game.
Baltimore has the top rushing offense in football and we saw how the defense looked against the run today. Don't get me wrong, I think their game plan will be much different next week given that Baltimore doesn't have the receivers the Browns do. Should see heavier boxes.
 

Seels

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This is the big question mark on the schedule. I'd feel comfortable if Wynn was back. As it is, next week is probably a toss up.

If they win next week, they're not losing until next August.
 

SoxinSeattle

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This is the big question mark on the schedule. I'd feel comfortable if Wynn was back. As it is, next week is probably a toss up.

If they win next week, they're not losing until next August.
I fear the Saints in a hypothetical Super Bowl.
 

Ralphwiggum

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Cowboys game is at home. They are a good team but I can’t see this team losing a game at Gillette barring something weird happening. Cowboys also lost to the Jets.
 

wilked

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Since we’re talking undefeated.... how many games do the 49ers win in their next 9?

At Cardinals
Vs Seahawks
Vs Cardinals
Vs Packers
At Ravens
At Saints
Vs Falcons
Vs Rams
At Seahawks

that looks like 5-4 or 6-3 to me

edited for maths
 
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Over Guapo Grande

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Since we’re talking undefeated.... how many games do the 49ers win in their next 9?

At Cardinals
Vs Seahawks
Vs Cardinals
Vs Packers
At Ravens
At Saints
Vs Falcons
Vs Rams
At Seahawks

that looks like 7-4 or 6-3 to me
I can't see them going 7-4 in their next 9.
 

Toe Nash

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Baltimore has the top rushing offense in football and we saw how the defense looked against the run today. Don't get me wrong, I think their game plan will be much different next week given that Baltimore doesn't have the receivers the Browns do. Should see heavier boxes.
Baltimore has the most rushing yards but their leading rusher is their QB. While half of Jackson's yards are on designed runs, it's not a traditional rushing offense like Cleveland and the Patriots tend to do well against mobile QBs. I think Dallas is the bigger test.
 

wilked

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Baltimore has the most rushing yards but their leading rusher is their QB. While half of Jackson's yards are on designed runs, it's not a traditional rushing offense like Cleveland and the Patriots tend to do well against mobile QBs. I think Dallas is the bigger test.
I'm in this boat also, and voted Dallas as their most likely first loss
 

BaseballJones

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Since we’re talking undefeated.... how many games do the 49ers win in their next 9?

At Cardinals
Vs Seahawks
Vs Cardinals
Vs Packers
At Ravens
At Saints
Vs Falcons
Vs Rams
At Seahawks

that looks like 5-4 or 6-3 to me

edited for maths
However many they win, that's a pretty brutal schedule right there.
 

Time to Mo Vaughn

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But I think you just win one football game at a time. Keep on putting everything you got into the next opponent. Tunnel vision. I don't care if the AFC is clinched week 14, you put your head down, stay focused and execute every single play to the best of your ability. I really think that's the only way to go 19-0.
I mean, sure, that's absolutely how you take it if you're a member of the team or coaching staff. Fortunately, the rest of us are just bystanders on a Red Sox message board.

Looking ahead at the schedule and anything we might have learned from this week (odds of winning and lines from 538):

57% (-2) - Baltimore (road) - Bye. No changes
64% (-4) - Eagles (road) - Strong win over the Bills. Rookie Miles Sanders had 3 rushes for 74 yards (including a 65 yard TD), but left the game with a shoulder injury.
77% (-8.5) - Cowboys (home) - Bye. No changes
62% (-3.5) - Texans (road) - Barely got passed Oakland, who I still can't tell how good they are. Lost JJ Watt for the season, which definitely weakens them heading into the Patriots game. I don't believe his loss is taken into account for the win probability and ELO point spread.
72% (-6.5) - Chiefs (home) - Lost by 1 TD at home to Green Bay. The offense without Mahomes looked better than I expected, but there's massive holes in their defense for RBs either directly off carries or screen passes. The big news is Mahomes will supposedly be back in week 10, which seems really quick. He'll certainly have the rust off by the time he plays the Patriots in Week 14, but it's left to be seen whether his mobility will be compromised or if returning to soon will result in another injury setback.
90% (-15) - Bengals (road) - This team is still awful. Gave up a ton of receiving yards early to the Rams, who probably could have scored more if they kept their foot on the gas, but they had a 2 TD lead 5 minutes into the second half.
84% (-11.5) - Bills (home) - Beat pretty soundly by the Eagles at home this week. Their first loss outside of the Patriots. Gave up over 200 yards rushing.
93% (-18.5) - Miami (home) - Monday night game. Will they ship anyone else out as part of their rebuild to weaken them even further for this final match up.

These numbers odds give the Patriots an 8.8% chance of a perfect regular season. However, if they get past Baltimore this week, they jump to 15.5%.
 

Time to Mo Vaughn

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Since we’re talking undefeated.... how many games do the 49ers win in their next 9?

At Cardinals
Vs Seahawks
Vs Cardinals
Vs Packers
At Ravens
At Saints
Vs Falcons
Vs Rams
At Seahawks

that looks like 5-4 or 6-3 to me

edited for maths
Pretty exciting to have two undefeated teams heading into week 9. It won't happen, but imagine if they were both 18-0 meeting in the Super Bowl?

As a comparison for the Patriots, 49ers Win Probability and lines from 538 for the rest of the season:

At Cardinals - 75% (-4.5) Thursday Night Game
Vs Seahawks - 68% (-5) Monday Night Game
Vs Cardinals - 86% (-12.5)
Vs Packers - 54% (-1) - Interesting to see it this low in a home game. This is lower then Patriots @Baltimore.
At Ravens - 45% (+1.5) - We see the Patriots and 49ers both playing @Baltimore and the difference in Win Probabilities is 57% to 45%
At Saints - 33% (+5)
Vs Falcons - 84% (-11.5)
Vs Rams - 63% (-4)
At Seahawks - 52% (-0.5)

This has the 49ers having a 0.97% chance at a perfect regular season.
 

Super Nomario

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Baltimore has the most rushing yards but their leading rusher is their QB. While half of Jackson's yards are on designed runs, it's not a traditional rushing offense like Cleveland and the Patriots tend to do well against mobile QBs. I think Dallas is the bigger test.
I think the Patriots tend to struggle against mobile QBs for the most part. Wilson, Watson, and Cam all gave them fits. Kaepernick torched them in 2012. They generally keep them in the pocket and take away scrambling, and if the guy can hang in the pocket and throw they have all day back there. But Baltimore might not have enough receiving help to take advantage.
 

Bowhemian

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I think that yes, historically the Pats have struggled against mobile QBs. But I also think that, at least so far this season, they have been better at it. The D-Ends have been much less aggressive and have been doing well at holding the edges. Go upfield a couple yards, and stay there. That forces the QB (or the RBs going outside) up the middle, where there should be D-Tackles and LBs waiting. That’s what I have seen them at least try to do, and in my view, have done it fairly well so far this season.
 

lexrageorge

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The Pats last played Wilson in 2016. They faced both Newton and Watson in 2017, but that was the same defense that allowed Nick Foles to have a career game (and was almost beat by Blake Bortles 2 weeks prior). They contained Watson fairly well during last season's opener, but that was his first game back from his knee injury and so really doesn't mean much.

The sample sizes here are both small and out of date to really make any proclamations about the Pats ability to deal with a mobile QB that can throw. Other than that the Ravens will be a far tougher test for the defense than they've faced so far.
 

RedOctober3829

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I think the Patriots tend to struggle against mobile QBs for the most part. Wilson, Watson, and Cam all gave them fits. Kaepernick torched them in 2012. They generally keep them in the pocket and take away scrambling, and if the guy can hang in the pocket and throw they have all day back there. But Baltimore might not have enough receiving help to take advantage.
Off of the top of my head, they used to not be good against mobile QB's. But haven't they done well against them recently?
 

tims4wins

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Both ESPN's FPI and Football Outsiders give the Pats a better chance of going 16-0 than of not being the 1 seed.
 

Toe Nash

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2012 was a long time ago. I was just going by memory so not sure why I had that opinion, so I take it back barring further analysis. It seems like something this defense should be able to do well; the secondary is the strength it seems and the line can focus on keeping Jackson contained while the secondary covers the receivers.
 

OurF'ingCity

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The Eagles shouldn't be overlooked either - the Pats will have two weeks to prepare, which is good, but it's on the road, the Eagles just easily handled a pretty solid Buffalo defense and we know Petersen coaches well against Belichick (obviously the Super Bowl was almost entirely different teams on both sides, but Petersen more generally is aggressive and won't make idiotic challenges or other decisions like at least 50% of the other coaches in the league).
 

Super Nomario

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Off of the top of my head, they used to not be good against mobile QB's. But haven't they done well against them recently?
I guess it depends on how you define mobile and recently. Last year they did pretty well against Watson but struggled against Trubisky. They did OKish against Mahomes I guess. They didn't do a great job against Tennessee but nothing went well there. You go back to 2017 and Watson and Newton carved them up. They contained Rodgers, Josh Allen, Tyrod Taylor, and Daniel Jones well over the last few seasons. Jackson is a different kind of running threat than any of these guys though.
 

Time to Mo Vaughn

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It was in Barnwell's article today. I think he had 9.3% vs. 7.5% of not being the 1 seed.
Thanks. Thought it might be in one of the tables or there might be a game by game odds posted that it could be calculated from.

As of right now the odds for the perfect regular season by a few outlets are:
538 - 8.8%
ESPN's FPI - 9.3%
Football Outsiders - 10.4%
 
Apr 24, 2019
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There are a few speedbumps this season, but IMO, none bigger than Baltimore this week
Couldn’t agree more. History + run game performance this week vs. Cleveland + Baltimore run game + Pats erratic offensive game recently = toughest game of year. Still think we win, but for me it has a nail-biter feel.

Edit typos
 
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rodderick

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If they can get the OL healthy and Sanu integrated in the offense after the bye, they'd be really hard to stop, so I agree that this Baltimore game is key (as it was in '07).
 

InstaFace

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Schedulers gave them 2 weeks to prepare for us, vs 1 week for us to prepare for them. I don't think there's another game on the schedule where the Pats have a lower chance of winning, not even the Chiefs game (which of course is at home).

This could end up meaning that we're in for Belichick reaching deep into his bag of tricks. Anyone who isn't excited for this game needs to check their meds.
 

Deathofthebambino

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I guess it depends on how you define mobile and recently. Last year they did pretty well against Watson but struggled against Trubisky. They did OKish against Mahomes I guess. They didn't do a great job against Tennessee but nothing went well there. You go back to 2017 and Watson and Newton carved them up. They contained Rodgers, Josh Allen, Tyrod Taylor, and Daniel Jones well over the last few seasons. Jackson is a different kind of running threat than any of these guys though.
Watson and Newton carved them up through the air, not really on the ground. Watson had 8 carries for 41 yards (long of 7) and Newton had 8 carries for 44 yards and a td (long run of 13). Both of them had over 300 yards passing in those games.

If they hold Lamar Jackson to 8 carries for less than 50 yards, they'll steamroll this team.

One thing I've learned about the Pats is running quarterbacks might beat them, but usually, it's through the air, and bigger running backs almost always suck against the Pats (guys like Kareem Hunt, that are dual threats, hurt them much more than bigger backs).
 

BigSoxFan

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Watson and Newton carved them up through the air, not really on the ground. Watson had 8 carries for 41 yards (long of 7) and Newton had 8 carries for 44 yards and a td (long run of 13). Both of them had over 300 yards passing in those games.

If they hold Lamar Jackson to 8 carries for less than 50 yards, they'll steamroll this team.

One thing I've learned about the Pats is running quarterbacks might beat them, but usually, it's through the air, and bigger running backs almost always suck against the Pats (guys like Kareem Hunt, that are dual threats, hurt them much more than bigger backs).
Yup. And I feel like this has gone on for about 2 decades when they used to bottle up guys like Bettis pretty well. It’s the guys who can make plays out of nowhere that generally cause the most damage and Lamar certainly fits that bill. There’s no coaching answer for a guy juking your LB out of his socks or getting away from a DE about to make a sack. It’s very difficult to beat a well-stocked Belichick defense conventionally, especially this one. It’s obviously happened but it doesn’t happen a lot.

Good thing for Pats is that they’ve seen Josh Allen already and can probably use some of that prep. Lamar is obviously a better athlete but there may be some similarities.

Belichick will be preaching discipline and he’ll have some good examples to use from the Browns game.
 

Super Nomario

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Watson and Newton carved them up through the air, not really on the ground. Watson had 8 carries for 41 yards (long of 7) and Newton had 8 carries for 44 yards and a td (long run of 13). Both of them had over 300 yards passing in those games.

If they hold Lamar Jackson to 8 carries for less than 50 yards, they'll steamroll this team.

One thing I've learned about the Pats is running quarterbacks might beat them, but usually, it's through the air, and bigger running backs almost always suck against the Pats (guys like Kareem Hunt, that are dual threats, hurt them much more than bigger backs).
I do agree with you here. They struggle with mobile guys at times, but it's usually not the mobility that kills them (with rare breakdowns, such as vs Newton in 2013 or Trubisky last year). The approach seems to be to keep mobile guys contained, often at the expense of any kind of pressure. QBs who can run but are also comfortable sitting back in the pocket and throwing are the ones that give them trouble. One-dimensional runners like Tebow, they eat up. I'm not sure what Jackson is at this point. There's also the possibility that the run D isn't good, which would play into Baltimore's hands.
 

RetractableRoof

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I do agree with you here. They struggle with mobile guys at times, but it's usually not the mobility that kills them (with rare breakdowns, such as vs Newton in 2013 or Trubisky last year). The approach seems to be to keep mobile guys contained, often at the expense of any kind of pressure. QBs who can run but are also comfortable sitting back in the pocket and throwing are the ones that give them trouble. One-dimensional runners like Tebow, they eat up. I'm not sure what Jackson is at this point. There's also the possibility that the run D isn't good, which would play into Baltimore's hands.
That's about as accurate as it gets I think.

I wonder about a hybrid approach where they do the containment thing they usually do, but in spots select a varying single player to break containment after a delay to try to flush him from the pocket so he can't sit there all day. Is this a potential thing or just a too many red bulls dumb idea from someone who hasn't a clue? :D I'll hang up and listen.
 

BaseballJones

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That's about as accurate as it gets I think.

I wonder about a hybrid approach where they do the containment thing they usually do, but in spots select a varying single player to break containment after a delay to try to flush him from the pocket so he can't sit there all day. Is this a potential thing or just a too many red bulls dumb idea from someone who hasn't a clue? :D I'll hang up and listen.
I think the zero blitz would work against Jackson the *passer*, but the problem with it is that you're playing strict M2M defense, and there's no LB help since everyone is coming after the QB. If you get to him, awesome. If not, there probably would be a crack/seam in there that Jackson could exploit, and with all the DBs playing man, they're not really able to help contain a QB running as much as if they were in zone. So I'd expect not as much zero blitzing this coming week as we've seen in the past.
 

j44thor

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I wonder if we'll see something unconventional like Jonathan Jones spying Jackson instead of a LB. Maybe Collins could spy Jackson but don't see any other LBs keeping up with him.
Believe last year vs KC Jones was on Tyreek with S help so clearly he has the speed. We have more quality DBs than BAL has receivers so need to find some way to utilize them.
 

Super Nomario

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I wonder if we'll see something unconventional like Jonathan Jones spying Jackson instead of a LB. Maybe Collins could spy Jackson but don't see any other LBs keeping up with him.
Believe last year vs KC Jones was on Tyreek with S help so clearly he has the speed. We have more quality DBs than BAL has receivers so need to find some way to utilize them.
I'm trying to remember what game it was, but they've used Devin McCourty as a spy before, with Harmon playing a lot of deep safety. I could see that formula here, which would let them leave Jones on Brown.
 

Deathofthebambino

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My feeling we'll see 7/8 men in the box regularly. 1 or 2 guys may drop into coverage depending on the look, and one guy will spy Jackson on every play. With this defensive backfield, BB will be in M2M all day long against one of the shittiest group of receivers they'll see. Take away Mark Andrews, and Jackson/Ingram running the ball, and the Ravens won't go anywhere. The pass rushers have to stay in their lane, and then collapse the pocket. I don't care if he's back there for 5 seconds, he still won't find a receiver that can beat this secondary.
 

Saints Rest

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I wonder if we'll see something unconventional like Jonathan Jones spying Jackson instead of a LB. Maybe Collins could spy Jackson but don't see any other LBs keeping up with him.
Believe last year vs KC Jones was on Tyreek with S help so clearly he has the speed. We have more quality DBs than BAL has receivers so need to find some way to utilize them.
I keep flashing back to Russell Wilson decking Collins out of his jock in Super Bowl 49.

Jones or JCJ or DMac as spy makes a lot of sense.

I wonder if, after showing so much Cover-0 for the last two games, they go the exact opposite and play a ton of rush-3/drop 8 zone. My recollection is that QB's who can run tend to do better against M2M coverage as the DB's all have their backs to the QB.
 

BusRaker

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I think the zero blitz would work against Jackson the *passer*, but the problem with it is that you're playing strict M2M defense, and there's no LB help since everyone is coming after the QB. If you get to him, awesome. If not, there probably would be a crack/seam in there that Jackson could exploit, and with all the DBs playing man, they're not really able to help contain a QB running as much as if they were in zone. So I'd expect not as much zero blitzing this coming week as we've seen in the past.
Problem with the zero blitz is that if Jackson breaks the blitz on his feet it's six points

Edit: I see a rotation of spies with Collins, KVN and a fast defensive back. If you let him know who it will be, it makes his job that much easier
 
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