2019 Ravens: College Offense Run Amok

[KiltedFool]

I was hoping a Steelers' fan would clarify this. Thanks.

Sure thing. And honestly the Steelers line is pretty solid, even after losing Tuitt in the middle of a Pro-Bowl quality season. So they can get there with four, and are effective against the run. Watt is Watt, Heyward is a beast, Dupree is finally coming into his own in a contract year (people who called him a bust every week since his draft are now yammering to franchise him), Hargrove is putting in a monster year and will likely be priced out of PIT next year. The rotational pieces on the line are even pretty decent.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Big blow to Baltimore's OL.

View: https://twitter.com/MikeGarafolo/status/1199418756084228097

 

[Bergs]

Big blow to Baltimore's OL.

View: https://twitter.com/MikeGarafolo/status/1199418756084228097

Link to a story for those on mobile:

Undrafted rookie Patrick Mekari, who filled in Monday night, is expected to replace Skura. Sunday's game against the San Francisco 49ers would mark the first start at center for Mekari since high school.

Will be interesting to see how this impacts their run game.

 

[Cotillion]

The OL issues weren't all him going down (plenty happened there to hurt the Pats this year), but we've seen what happens when you downgrade from Andrews to Karras.

It'll hurt them somewhat, just a matter of seeing how much of a fall off it may be.

 

[dcmissle]

Undrafted, Duke 2016.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Analytics article on use of motion at the snap and how that increases expected points per play: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28170117/pre-snap-motion-given-ravens-edge-why-more-teams-use-it. The ESPN Analytics analysis found this: "analysis produced results that suggested motion at the snap is worth .04 EPA/P on pass plays and .08 on rush plays (again, the difference between no motion and motion and set was negligible)."

Ravens run such motion on over 1/3rd of their plays (almost 1/2 of plays versus LAR).

 

[SMU_Sox]

They had more success against Baltimore with even fronts. I buy the Chatham narrative for why they lost to Baltimore.

The defensive line and LBs initially were playing more reactionary and passively against Baltimore. Odd fronts, more 2-gapping, etc. That got absolutely obliterated. But because the Pats offense was dreadful early they didn’t have enough time to diagnose and change plans until after their 3rd drive. Then in the second half they just played like crap on 3rd down or committed untimely penalties that extended the drives for Baltimore.

There is no God mode in football. I’m not saying that because I’m an atheist either. There are ways to beat every offense even one lead by my son, Lamar.

It will take a good game from the players to win even in the right scheme but I think they can solve this puzzle the next go-round. Until then I am enjoying the fuck out of their offense.

Also, let this be another reminder of landing spot matters. I don’t think Lamar would have been anything close to this good had he landed in say Miami or Arizona.

 

[RetractableRoof]

They had more success against Baltimore with even fronts. I buy the Chatham narrative for why they lost to Baltimore.

The defensive line and LBs initially were playing more reactionary and passively against Baltimore. Odd fronts, more 2-gapping, etc. That got absolutely obliterated. But because the Pats offense was dreadful early they didn’t have enough time to diagnose and change plans until after their 3rd drive. Then in the second half they just played like crap on 3rd down or committed untimely penalties that extended the drives for Baltimore.

There is no God mode in football. I’m not saying that because I’m an atheist either. There are ways to beat every offense even one lead by my son, Lamar.

It will take a good game from the players to win even in the right scheme but I think they can solve this puzzle the next go-round. Until then I am enjoying the fuck out of their offense.

Also, let this be another reminder of landing spot matters. I don’t think Lamar would have been anything close to this good had he landed in say Miami or Arizona.

If he had landed in Miami - he'd most likely have been a RB by now.

 

[BaseballJones]

If he had landed in Miami - he'd most likely have been a RB by now.

And almost certainly a damned good one.

 

[tims4wins]

"You think the 49ers are going to the Super Bowl?" Thomas said Wednesday. "It could be. Let's see. ... When the Super Bowl comes, whoever we play, they're going to be in trouble."

 

[j44thor]

"You think the 49ers are going to the Super Bowl?" Thomas said Wednesday. "It could be. Let's see. ... When the Super Bowl comes, whoever we play, they're going to be in trouble."

Are we suppose to feign anger for that statement? You play the game for one reason, to win the SB. He isn't saying they can watch the BAL parade, just that they will be there. Given the historic run they are on that is a mild reaction. Obv not the Patriot way but to each their own.

 

[tims4wins]

Are we suppose to feign anger for that statement? You play the game for one reason, to win the SB. He isn't saying they can watch the BAL parade, just that they will be there. Given the historic run they are on that is a mild reaction. Obv not the Patriot way but to each their own.

Anger? No. Just thought it was interesting.

 

[j44thor]

Anger? No. Just thought it was interesting.

Fair enough, just seems like we go overboard with anything outside the "patriot way" in BBTL.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Another data point: Lamar is way ahead of the rest of the league in empty formations with .73 expected points added per attempt. Mahomes is second at .49.
https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/11/defenses-are-basically-powerless-to-stop-lamar-jackson-in-empty-formations

 

[patoaflac]

"You think the 49ers are going to the Super Bowl?" Thomas said Wednesday. "It could be. Let's see. ... When the Super Bowl comes, whoever we play, they're going to be in trouble."

Sherman’s reply:
San Francisco cornerback Richard Sherman sounded unfazed by former Seahawks teammate Thomas' prediction.
"He has the right to say whatever he wants," Sherman said. "That's why it's a free country.
"At the end of the day, the game speaks for itself on Sunday. The score will speak for itself. Whatever that will be and then at the end of February, whoever is playing will be playing. Getting caught up over quotes, he really didn't say anything that personally offended me at all. If he did, there would be a conversation. But it doesn't make me no never mind, honestly."

 

[dcmissle]

Anger? No. Just thought it was interesting.

It is. Rarely if ever heard stuff like this from Lewis, Reed, Siragusa, et al. I think this statement is psych ops for Sunday, which Sherman promptly tried to defuse.

 

[BaseballJones]

Ok SOSH, who would you rather have if you couldn't have Brady at QB: Mahomes or Jackson?

For me, it's easy. Mahomes. I think he could operate in any system and be great. I think Jackson needs kind of a perfect storm of factors in order to be great. He presently has that in Baltimore, but will it stay like that?

But what about the rest of you?

 

[azsoxpatsfan]

Ok SOSH, who would you rather have if you couldn't have Brady at QB: Mahomes or Jackson?

For me, it's easy. Mahomes. I think he could operate in any system and be great. I think Jackson needs kind of a perfect storm of factors in order to be great. He presently has that in Baltimore, but will it stay like that?

But what about the rest of you?

Mahomes. Bigger sample size of him being amazing, lower risk of injury derailing his career (in the sense that great passing ability is less likely to be permanently lessened than great running ability and agility). And Lamar is sick to watch and is something we haven’t seen but doesn’t seem as prodigious a talent as Mahomes

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Nice breakdown of Ravens offense from SF blogger below. He points out a bunch of stuff BAL likes to do and talks about how SF needs to play their defense. Biggest takeaway: defenses have to have interior lineman who can defeat double teams throughout the game.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7lYMLRslBiA

 

[gtmtnbiker]

Good game today by the Ravens & 49ers. I was surprised in the first half that SF did not have a guy assigned to Jackson who was able to break off some big runs. They did a better job in the second half. As mentioned in the game thread, Jackson did a great job hiding the ball.

 

[Mugsy’s Walk-Off Bunt]

I don’t know why teams ever play the hand off to the RB. Just play Jackson and do your best to take away the running back if he does happen to get it. ASSUME Jackson is keeping it.

 

[Super Nomario]

I don’t know why teams ever play the hand off to the RB. Just play Jackson and do your best to take away the running back if he does happen to get it. ASSUME Jackson is keeping it.

At least one of the problems is that teams try to do this but Jackson is a rule-breaker. There was one play in the meeting with the Patriots where John Simon stayed at home on the edge, which is supposed to force the handoff ... except that Jackson just kept it and blew past Simon's contain for a big gain. Jackson kind of wrecks the on-paper plans.

 

[BaseballJones]

Ravens, weeks 10-12 at Cin, vs Hou, at LAR:
- 45.0 ppg
- 450.0 ypg

Ravens, weeks 13-14 vs SF, at Buf:
- 22.0 ppg
- 270.0 ypg

So are teams figuring out the Ravens, or is it simply a matter of playing two of the best defenses in the NFL? Or a combination of both? Because if this was the Pats, people would be saying, "Oh look, when they play a real defense, look what happens." And keep in mind that when they beat the Pats (clearly a "real" defense), yes they scored 37, but "only" gained 372 yards, which is 36 below their average.

Anyway, the question stands. Are teams figuring them out a little, or is it just playing very good defenses?

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Meant to post this earlier but didn't hit post.

Here's a video that may be of interest to only me on plays that SF did not defend "correctly":
https://www.ninersnation.com/2019/12/7/20989899/49ers-defensive-gameplan-was-stymied-by-the-ravens-and-their-2012-49ers-style-offense.

Again, this may be just be me, but I'm amazed how many actions the Ravens can run from their sets.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Ravens, weeks 10-12 at Cin, vs Hou, at LAR:
- 45.0 ppg
- 450.0 ypg

Ravens, weeks 13-14 vs SF, at Buf:
- 22.0 ppg
- 270.0 ypg

So are teams figuring out the Ravens, or is it simply a matter of playing two of the best defenses in the NFL? Or a combination of both? Because if this was the Pats, people would be saying, "Oh look, when they play a real defense, look what happens." And keep in mind that when they beat the Pats (clearly a "real" defense), yes they scored 37, but "only" gained 372 yards, which is 36 below their average.

Anyway, the question stands. Are teams figuring them out a little, or is it just playing very good defenses?

I think the weather had a lot to do with it. I know from the BUF game, both the Ravens and the Bills were daring QBs to throw deep and the balls were moving even when being tossed from official to official.

BUF dropped their safeties into the box a ton and other than that one throw to Hayden Hurst, Lamar didn't make them pay as much as he usually did. Plus there were at least three throws, at least one of which could have been TDs, that were off the fingertips of the BAL receiver IIRC and that would have really impacted the game.

 

[RedOctober3829]

After an MRI today, Mark Ingram indeed has a calf strain and there is "hope" he can return to the team for the playoffs. Doesn't sound like they got the best case scenario on him. He does have an extra week to get ready for the divisional round as they'll hold him out this week too. However, depending on the severity those injuries have a tendency to linger similar to Durant's.

View: https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1209163952162320386

 

[BaseballJones]

After their two games against San Francisco and Buffalo, I was hoping that the Ravens' offense was actually slowing down. Alas, no. The past two games, against the Jets and Browns, they've scored 42 and 31 points, and gained 430 and 481 yards, respectively. And Lamar Jackson's passing game has really heated up. Last two games:

15-23 (65.2%), 212 yds, 5 td, 0 int, 134.4 rating
20-31 (64.5%), 238 yds, 3 td, 0 int, 120.1 rating

So now they have it ALL going full throttle.

 

[BigSoxFan]

After their two games against San Francisco and Buffalo, I was hoping that the Ravens' offense was actually slowing down. Alas, no. The past two games, against the Jets and Browns, they've scored 42 and 31 points, and gained 430 and 481 yards, respectively. And Lamar Jackson's passing game has really heated up. Last two games:

15-23 (65.2%), 212 yds, 5 td, 0 int, 134.4 rating
20-31 (64.5%), 238 yds, 3 td, 0 int, 120.1 rating

So now they have it ALL going full throttle.

Elite offense and very good defense. Good luck, everyone else. Browns held them in check for a while but eventually the dam broke. I think you just have to aim for winning a shootout with these guys. KC has the pieces to do this. We likely do not.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Elite offense and very good defense. Good luck, everyone else. Browns held them in check for a while but eventually the dam broke. I think you just have to aim for winning a shootout with these guys. KC has the pieces to do this. We likely do not.

A gimpy Ingram would be a huge development.

 

[BaseballJones]

Elite offense and very good defense. Good luck, everyone else. Browns held them in check for a while but eventually the dam broke. I think you just have to aim for winning a shootout with these guys. KC has the pieces to do this. We likely do not.

Yep, last 7 games, Baltimore's defense has allowed:

- 13.7 points a game
- 264.4 yards a game
- 16.0 first downs a game

All excellent numbers. Oh and they're really really good at turnover margin. Last 7 games: 12 takeaways, 4 giveaways. In 8 of their 15 games this year they've had 2 or more takeaways. In all but two games (weeks 2, 3) they have at least one takeaway.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Yep, last 7 games, Baltimore's defense has allowed:

- 13.7 points a game
- 264.4 yards a game
- 16.0 first downs a game

All excellent numbers. Oh and they're really really good at turnover margin. Last 7 games: 12 takeaways, 4 giveaways. In 8 of their 15 games this year they've had 2 or more takeaways. In all but two games (weeks 2, 3) they have at least one takeaway.

And home field advantage. Key is getting up on them and making them commit more to pass. Would need a start like Pats got last year in AFCCG. And some turnover luck. Would love to see Pats get another shot at slaying this beast. If KC does us in again, that matchup would be pretty compelling as well.

 

[DJnVa]

After their two games against San Francisco and Buffalo, I was hoping that the Ravens' offense was actually slowing down. Alas, no. The past two games, against the Jets and Browns, they've scored 42 and 31 points, and gained 430 and 481 yards, respectively. And Lamar Jackson's passing game has really heated up. Last two games:

15-23 (65.2%), 212 yds, 5 td, 0 int, 134.4 rating
20-31 (64.5%), 238 yds, 3 td, 0 int, 120.1 rating

So now they have it ALL going full throttle.

I think the important part was that they appeared to slow down a bit against SF and Buffalo (good defenses) and ramped it up against not as good defenses. They'll be facing more of the former in the postseason, and with Ingram banged up there's hope.

 

[BaseballJones]

They just don't have many negative plays. Very few penalties. Very few sacks and negative yardage plays. They're always moving FORWARD.

 

[Marciano490]

When’s the last time we went 0-2 against a team in a season?

 

[Brand Name]

When’s the last time we went 0-2 against a team in a season?

2015 Broncos. Since BB became coach, this also applies to the 2012 Ravens, 2011 Giants, 2006 Colts, 2005 Broncos 2000 Dolphins and 2000 Jets.

For historical perspective, the only team to ever defeat the Pats thrice in a season were the 1963 Chargers.

 

[BigSoxFan]

They just don't have many negative plays. Very few penalties. Very few sacks and negative yardage plays. They're always moving FORWARD.

Very true. Lamar had 6 INT / 2 FL in 16 games. You’re fortunate if you get 1 turnover against him. Basically, you need to strip everyone else.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I think the important part was that they appeared to slow down a bit against SF and Buffalo (good defenses) and ramped it up against not as good defenses. They'll be facing more of the former in the postseason, and with Ingram banged up there's hope.

Both SF and BUF games were in shitty weather; have to take that into consideration.

 

[staz]

Harbaugh sitting Lamar and others Week 17 is... interesting. Not sure rust, I mean rest, is the best strategy when facing a playoff team that just won a playoff game?

 

[DJnVa]

They just don't have many negative plays. Very few penalties. Very few sacks and negative yardage plays. They're always moving FORWARD.

Not exactly correct, at least on the details.

Because they're middle of the pack on penalties (per 100 plays and overall) and are a net negative in penalty yardage.
They also have had 33 rushes for negative yards---which is also somewhere in the middle.

You're right on sacks though, 4th fewest.

Total penalties plus sacks play negative runs:
Ravens: 161 (103+33+25)
Patriots: 153 (88+38+27)

Where they KILL is rushes to the left and right. They have 79 rushes going wide left or right that have gone for 10 yards or more. SF is next with 52.

 

[cshea]

Harbaugh sitting Lamar and others Week 17 is... interesting. Not sure rust, I mean rest, is the best strategy when facing a playoff team that just won a playoff game?

FWIW, Quick pre-football reference search on this. In the past 9 seasons, the bye teams are 27-9 in the divisional round. Of the 9 losses I found 3 teams that rested players in week 17.

2011 Packers- 14-1, the 1 seed clinched, sat Rodgers (the game that made Matt Flynn millions) and then lost 37-20 to NYG (ugh).

2016 Cowboys- They has the 1 seed clinched going into week 17. Dak got 2 series before Romo’s last hurrah and Mark Sanchez closed it out. Elliott was a DNP. Fell behind the Packers 21-3 in the divisional round and lost 34-31.

2017 Steelers- As far as I can tell, the Steelers were alive for the 1 seed that year. They decided to rest anyways alothough playing the 0-15 Browns may have factored into their decision. Both the Steelers and Pats were 12-3 entering the final week, with the Pats holding the H2H tiebreaker.They didn’t play Ben, Brown or Bell but if memory serves, Brown was injured. They lost 45-42 in the divisional round to the Jaguars.

Wasn’t able to go through the winners to find out how many rested guys in week 17.

 

[Ed Hillel]

After an MRI today, Mark Ingram indeed has a calf strain and there is "hope" he can return to the team for the playoffs. Doesn't sound like they got the best case scenario on him. He does have an extra week to get ready for the divisional round as they'll hold him out this week too. However, depending on the severity those injuries have a tendency to linger similar to Durant's.

View: https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1209163952162320386

Good luck getting over a calf strain in January weather playing football.

Also:
View: https://twitter.com/ProFootballTalk/status/1209594216483082240

 

[tims4wins]

It really just points to the stupidity of the rules. Short of listening in on the other team’s play calls there is nothing to be gained for video or audio recording of anything. Ditto football PSI obviously. This isn’t baseball where you can alert the batter to fastball vs offspeed.

 

[gtmtnbiker]

So how did the Titans beat Jackson and the Ravens last night? This is Vrabel's insight:

And they wanted to force Jackson to run laterally. They had eight or nine players near the line of scrimmage to stifle Jackson and force him to throw.

"We saw when he was gaining yards," Vrabel said. "He was getting them between the hashes and the numbers. When we defended from number to number and made him go laterally, they weren't big plays."

 

[Saints Rest]

So how did the Titans beat Jackson and the Ravens last night? This is Vrabel's insight:

Logan Ryan said (paraphrased) “just like in Madden, when you ‘engage eight,’ it’s hard to run the ball. We put 8 or 9 in the box and dared him to throw it.”