2019 Ravens: College Offense Run Amok

BaseballJones

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Time to talk about the 2019 Ravens in more detail. Looking more and more like a juggernaut. What's making them tick? Well first off, obviously Lamar Jackson, who has been great. But interestingly, he's basically the same player he was in college - just, you know, better, because he's not going up against Wake Forest. He's beating up excellent NFL defenses. But his stat line is just like it was in college.

2019 NFL
passing: 200-299 (66.9%), 2,427 yds, 8.1 y/a, 24 td, 5 int
rushing: 124 att, 876 yds, 7.1 ypc, 6 td

2017 NCAA
passing: 254-430 (59.1%), 3,660 yds, 8.5 y/a, 27 td, 10 int
rushing: 232 att, 1,601 yds, 6.9 ypc, 18 td

So he's doing it against obviously massively superior competition to the NCAA. I'd say that the biggest improvement in his game is his passing accuracy. Going from 59% in college to 67% in the pros...very impressive. His ball security has also been much better. 10 int his last year of college, and just 5 this year (still 5 games to go of course).

So he's playing great football. The Ravens on the whole are running essentially a college offense like Lamar ran at Louisville.

Total offensive plays: 745
# pass attempts: 316 (42.4%)
# sacked: 22 (3.0%)
# total pass plays: 338 (45.4%)
# rush attempts: 407 (54.6%)


Now obviously some of Jackson's runs were designed pass plays that he ended up taking off on. Without re-watching every game, it's hard to know exactly how many. But we know the percentages aren't 45.4% and 54.6%. It's closer to 50/50. But in today's NFL, that's a run-heavy offense for sure.

They are getting great performances from their RBs too.

Ingram: 151-778, 5.2 ypc
Edwards: 85-445, 5.2 ypc

So they're running all kinds of misdirection and option-style football, and their RBs are crushing it and Jackson is lethal. They rarely have negative plays. Almost everything is advancing the ball downfield. And when they decide to throw, Jackson is on target, hitting short and medium passes with high accuracy and consistency.

The OL is unreal. They're blowing people off the ball and manhandling defenders, creating huge holes for their backs. And when Jackson gets in the slightest bit of trouble, he's a magician out there with his legs.

Last night they had 7 real possessions: TD, TD, TD, TD, TD, FG, punt, (end of game)

7 possessions
6 scores
5 touchdowns

They shorten the game by chewing up a TON of clock, relentlessly moving downfield. Very difficult to stop. But at the end of the day, it's still just a basic college offense. Which is amazing that NFL teams can't do a damned thing about it. Last four games: 37, 49, 41, 45 points. It's not that they're putting up insane yardage numbers. It's that they possess the ball for so long and always seem to score at the end of their possessions. They just grind you into the ground.

But we've seen great offenses before. For example, the 2018 KC Chiefs. But other great offensive teams usually don't have a very good defense. This team has allowed 17, 16, 20, 13, 7, 6 in their last six. That's 79 points, for an average of 13.2 per game.

So the problem is that this isn't the kind of team you can get into a shootout with. They are stout defensively and a frigging machine offensively. Very different style than the Mahomes Chiefs, but incredibly effective.

So how do you beat them? Well, you need to play well offensively yourself. If you can get the lead, you can possibly make them throw throw throw, and even though Jackson has been good at passing this year, it's still the weaker side of his game. Especially when forced into that situation. The Chiefs (who obviously have a great offense) put up huge points and yards on them and took a 30-13 lead going into the fourth quarter. Jackson did lead them back but his final stat line was not his normal stuff: 22-43, 267 yds, 8 rushes 46 yds. Only completing 51% of his passes is well below his season average, so being in a position to HAVE to throw didn't help him at all.

I will say this though: when forced to throw to make a comeback...he performed well, going 15-21 (71.4%) for 196 yards (9.3 y/a) once they were down 30-13. So he's capable. But I still see that as being the best way to beat them.

This team is pretty difficult to handle. I just hope the Pats get them in Foxboro. Maybe they're too tough to deal with. But the Pats are pretty good too, and I suspect that they will find a way to slow Baltimore down. Then it may come down to how well the Pats' offense can execute against a tough (but not impenetrable) defense.
 

wilked

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For defense I think it’s zone reads, set the edge to force plays up the middle, and then play well up the middle (good tacking).
On offense you need to eat up clock and score points. I think you’ll need 24+ to beat them
 

BaseballJones

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For defense I think it’s zone reads, set the edge to force plays up the middle, and then play well up the middle (good tacking).
On offense you need to eat up clock and score points. I think you’ll need 24+ to beat them
It would be great if the D would get a pick-six or a fumble return TD to help the offense out. I'd like to hope that come playoff time, the Pats' offense is clicking again with Wynn and Sanu and Dorsett healthy.
 

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The Pats have had a lot of trouble with the RPO over the last 3 seasons (going at least as far back as the loss to the Chiefs to start the 2017 season). Until BB can figure out how to stop that consistently, this offense will be a problem. And the Pats offense this year is not capable of winning a game where every possession must end in points.
 

shawnrbu

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Did anybody watch the Ravens/Steelers game in Week 5? What did the Steelers do to limit the Ravens to 3.5 yards per carry, not allow Lamar a rush longer than 9 yards and sacked him 5 times? Lamar also threw 3 of his 5 INTs in that game.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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If anyone is interested in the schematics of the Ravens' offense, a HOU blogger broke it down in lengthy detail before that game. It's here:https://www.battleredblog.com/houston-texans-film-room-video-breakdown-gifs/2019/11/14/20964159/the-film-room-the-baltimore-ravens-unstoppable-run-offense.

Basically the deal is that even with Lamar, they're not content to play 11 on 11 football. Particularly when they are using their heavy package - multiple tight ends - they are leaving a DL or LB unblocked and reading off him. DLs and most LBs aren't used to being in these situations. By doing this, they get better blocking downfield and that opens up all sorts of lanes.

One of the things that the Ravens have capitalized is that virtually every defense in the NFL has gone smaller and quicker to combat the spread offenses of the rest of the league. Teams may not have the personnel to play against the Ravens' power running game. It's a first mover advantage.

The Ravens remind me of Golden State Warriors when Kerr took over. They are doing something so different that it's going to take the league a while to catch up.

Two interesting stats about Ravens:

Ravens are first team in NFL history to win back-to-back games vs winning teams by 34-plus points, according to the Elias.

Ravens are first team in NFL history to win 4 straight games vs winning teams, by total margin of 90-plus points.

View: https://twitter.com/jamisonhensley/status/1199194784818069504
 

wiffleballhero

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In the simulacrum
Can NBC flex this game vs. SF to the Sunday night slot? A 1pm Sunday slot seems like a waste.

(edit: apparently not. NFL says they need to do it at least 12 days out. I can't believe they didn't take this opportunity.)
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Did anybody watch the Ravens/Steelers game in Week 5? What did the Steelers do to limit the Ravens to 3.5 yards per carry, not allow Lamar a rush longer than 9 yards and sacked him 5 times? Lamar also threw 3 of his 5 INTs in that game.
The Steelers got a lot of pressure/penetration from their front 4 and their LBs were really good keeping things inside. It was the best front 7 to play the Ravens this year IMO. Here's a breakdown from a Steelers site: https://www.si.com/nfl/steelers/gm-report/grades-steelers-defense-vs-ravens/

Still, Lamar did throw multiple picks in that game; one of which was a really great play by a Steeler defender on a pass down the seam. Plus, the Ravens hadn't fixed their defense yet so PIT was able to move the ball and maybe the league was still trying to figure out Mason Rudolph.

If game 17 means anything, that game won't be as close as the previous game.
 

dcmissle

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It’s difficult to imagine a worse matchup from the Patriots’ standpoint.

The KC blueprint appears off the table, certainly based on where the Pats offense is now. Even if the o-line solidifies and receivers return to health, the Pats have no weapons that scare anybody. That’s why the Antonio Brown saga was such a BFD, and why Brady and BB staked out the positions they did. Matriculating the ball down the field is more difficult than before because of the in-season improvement of the Ravens’ defense, which is one of the two most important developments on the Ravens this year.

The other is Lamar’s dramatic improvement as a pocket passer; we are many miles away from that Chargers’ playoff game. And even if we weren’t, there is a complete disconnect between the Pats’ strengths on defense and the Ravens’ strengths on offense. By the time our secondary enters the fray, the play is lost. Lost because their o-line has already mauled our front 7, and lost because if Lamar doesn’t beat you, Ingram, Hill and Edwards will. And if you commit even more resources to stopping the run, the TEs and WRs likely will get you. It’s a losing numbers game exacerbated by the relative weakness of our D-linemen and linebackers.

Let’s see what the 49ers can accomplish Sunday. They appear better suited to the task.
 

BaseballJones

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It’s difficult to imagine a worse matchup from the Patriots’ standpoint.

The KC blueprint appears off the table, certainly based on where the Pats offense is now. Even if the o-line solidifies and receivers return to health, the Pats have no weapons that scare anybody. That’s why the Antonio Brown saga was such a BFD, and why Brady and BB staked out the positions they did. Matriculating the ball down the field is more difficult than before because of the in-season improvement of the Ravens’ defense, which is one of the two most important developments on the Ravens this year.

The other is Lamar’s dramatic improvement as a pocket passer; we are many miles away from that Chargers’ playoff game. And even if we weren’t, there is a complete disconnect between the Pats’ strengths on defense and the Ravens’ strengths on offense. By the time our secondary enters the fray, the play is lost. Lost because their o-line has already mauled our front 7, and lost because if Lamar doesn’t beat you, Ingram, Hill and Edwards will. And if you commit even more resources to stopping the run, the TEs and WRs likely will get you. It’s a losing numbers game exacerbated by the relative weakness of our D-linemen and linebackers.

Let’s see what the 49ers can accomplish Sunday. They appear better suited to the task.
I thought our linebackers - especially against the run - were one of the team's best strengths. High, Van Noy, and Collins are all very good run defenders. So why did they struggle so much against Baltimore? Even Roberts and Bentley are supposed to be good, downhill run defenders.
 

Mystic Merlin

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Can NBC flex this game vs. SF to the Sunday night slot? A 1pm Sunday slot seems like a waste.

(edit: apparently not. NFL says they need to do it at least 12 days out. I can't believe they didn't take this opportunity.)
Really? The Patriots - as reliable a draw as it gets this side of the Cowboys - against Deshaun Watson isn’t a game you scramble to flex.

Anyways, I’ll say this about the Pats/Ravens matchup: in retrospect, I am pleased they played Baltimore in the regular season. Live reps against that offense, which has no parallel in the league in terms of style, can only help them in preparing for any playoff rematch.
 

Zososoxfan

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I think a dedicated Ravens thread discussing them as a juggernaut does a disservice to SF, but since we have BALT-SF on Sunday, that will be a great data point.

To add some substance, I took a look at point differential and some pro football reference advanced stats:

Point Differential:
Baltimore +184
NE +183
SF +169
Dallas +85
Minny +84
Buff +58

SRS (Simple Rating System):
Balt - 16.5
NE - 14.9
SF - 13.8
Dallas - 5.5

Off. SRS:
Balt - 12.7 (!)
SF - 6.5
TB - 5.9
KC - 5.8
Seattle - 4.4
NE - 4.2

Def. SRS:
NE - 10.8 (!)
SF - 7.3
Chi - 4.2
Balt - 3.8

tl;dr - Balt, NE, and the 9ers are head of the class by a wide margin at this point. Baltimore's offense is currently breaking the system, but the Pats are far and away the best D and folks may be overrating the Balt D.

One thing that worries me about Baltimore specifically is that they are getting this done on the ground a lot and anecdotally it seems that teams that rely on the pass are more subsceptible to playoff upsets when the game is allowed to be more physical, especially in the secondary.
 

Super Nomario

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After last night, Ravens averaging 3.19 points per offensive drive. That's the same as the 2007 Patriots, who I believe are the best of all time in this stat.
 

BaseballJones

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The Ravens’ offense is built contrary to the Pats defensive strengths. Namely, the ravens running game matches up very well against the Pats’ defense, which is built to defend high-powered passing offenses like KC. So what if Belichick played it this way: play strict man to man pass defense and bring everybody else up to defend the run. No safety help, just leave your top of the line secondary to cover the ravens receivers and tight ends. Then bring everybody else into play in the running game. Is that risky? Of course. But they have to find a way to use their own strengths to their advantage.
 

BigJimEd

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I think a dedicated Ravens thread discussing them as a juggernaut does a disservice to SF, but since we have BALT-SF on Sunday, that will be a great data point.
There's nothing stopping you from starting a SF thread. We can discuss both teams.

I think Balt is a tough matchup for SF. SF defense is outstanding against the pass but mediocre against the run. I think SF is going to need to put up some points in the first half.

Someone in another thread mentioned the Jets and they might actually be a good test defensively for Baltimore. Very good against the run. I don't think overall they can keep up but I'll be interested to see how that matchup goes, at least early.
 

Mooch

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The main question is can Lamar Jackson hold up with the hits he takes running the ball so regularly. Even in a dominant win, he took some pretty good shots last night. The history of QBs who operate in an offense with lots of designed QB runs is not great in terms of longevity.

The closest comp in terms of dual-threat efficiency is RG3, who put up 8.1 YPA passing and 6.8 YPA rushing in his rookie year, running a very similar pistol-style, read-option heavy offense with a bruising running back (Alfred Morris had a 1600 yard season, averaging nearly 5 YPA). It was around the 120 carry mark that Griffin started to break down physically with a knee injury against a VERY physical Ravens defense and he was never the same after re-injuring it against the Seahawks in the playoffs.

I'd imagine that the 49ers defense will focus on hitting him early and often to wear him down.
 

BaseballJones

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That all may be true for the long term prognosis for Jackson, but in the short term, he poses a massive problem for the Patriots.
 

lexrageorge

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There are 2 difficult matchups left for the Ravens: home against a strong 49'ers team that just got done dismantling Aaron Rodgers; and road game in Buffalo, which can be difficult for any team in December, especially given the fact that the Bills defense seems to be at least decent. At Cleveland in late December could also be tricky.

I'm not sure Lamar Jackson and the offense is any more difficult for New England than it is most any other team in the league. The Ravens offense is just really good and poses matchup problems for everyone in the league. But there are at least 5 games, and likely 6 more to play before New England has to worry about it, and a lot can happen, both good and bad, in 6 games.

The Chiefs and Browns both put up 500 yards of offense against the Ravens, so there are potential holes to exploit.
 

j44thor

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There are 2 difficult matchups left for the Ravens: home against a strong 49'ers team that just got done dismantling Aaron Rodgers; and road game in Buffalo, which can be difficult for any team in December, especially given the fact that the Bills defense seems to be at least decent. At Cleveland in late December could also be tricky.

I'm not sure Lamar Jackson and the offense is any more difficult for New England than it is most any other team in the league. The Ravens offense is just really good and poses matchup problems for everyone in the league. But there are at least 5 games, and likely 6 more to play before New England has to worry about it, and a lot can happen, both good and bad, in 6 games.

The Chiefs and Browns both put up 500 yards of offense against the Ravens, so there are potential holes to exploit.
Those games were against a completely different starting secondary. BAL secondary really isn't comparable to the garbage they were trotting out first several games of the season. I actually think their weakness is more on the DL now and that teams can run against them assuming they can keep the game competitive.

I don't think you can shut down the BAL offense completely so it really becomes a pick your poison. Where they seem to get the big plays is when Lamar gets to the edge or the RB's run off tackle. It is a shame NE no longer has a big NT as that might be the best way to neutralize this offense, funnel everything between the tackles problem is BAL has elite guards though perhaps losing their starting C will take a little bit of starch out of their middle runs? What you can't do is lose the battle on the edges or give up rush lanes. If they are averaging 5YPC but all of it is within the first-second level inside the tackles you almost have to live with that and hope for a negative play to force them into a down and distance you can dictate against. Ultimately you want Lamar to beat you from within the pocket which is crazy to say given his passer rating.

Perhaps some combination of cover 1 with ILBs frequently double blitzing the A gaps while the DL maintains their assignments and doesn't get too far up field and the OLBs keeping contain could work?

Lost in all this is BAL reliance on advanced analytics around win probability. They have a coaching edge on 95% of the league as well.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I thought our linebackers - especially against the run - were one of the team's best strengths. High, Van Noy, and Collins are all very good run defenders. So why did they struggle so much against Baltimore? Even Roberts and Bentley are supposed to be good, downhill run defenders.
Pats Pulpit had a breakdown of the Pats run defense v BAL here: https://www.patspulpit.com/2019/11/6/20949313/film-room-what-happened-new-engalnd-patriots-run-defense-baltimore-ravens

The interesting part is that when NE ran a A-gap blitzes but BAL was often able to beat them to the edge but when NE did not blitz, BAL was able to go up the middle. BAL's offense creates a numbers issue for defense.

So what if Belichick played it this way: play strict man to man pass defense and bring everybody else up to defend the run. No safety help, just leave your top of the line secondary to cover the ravens receivers and tight ends.
No one runs man-to-man vs BAL (very often) because defenders' backs are to QB and Lamar runs wild.

My guess is that the best way to defend him is drop 7 or 8 into zone coverage and hope you get pressure from front 4 but that still means the LBs have to be perfect on play action.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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The Chiefs and Browns both put up 500 yards of offense against the Ravens, so there are potential holes to exploit.
Throw those games out. Here are the defenders that did not play in those two games that are playing now: Marcus Peters, Jimmy Smith, Chuck Clark, LJ Fort, Josh Bynes, Jaylen Ferguson, and Dom Peko. Plus Tyrus Bowser has dramatically increased his snap count to good results and Onwasour has gone from a terrible MIKE LB to an at least passable WILL LB.

It's basically a whole new defense with what has to be a top 3 or top 2 secondary in the NFL.
 

Zososoxfan

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Before this last weekend of games, BAL defense was #1 in DVOA since Week 7 (when they got Marcus Peters). https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/ravens/ravens-have-been-nfls-best-team-week-7-according-advanced-metric
Thanks. Seems like early season numbers are dragging Baltimore's season stats down. I don't know how to limit stats by weeks, but on the year Baltimore's D is:

  • Middling at giving up YAC
  • Leads the league in Blitz % (not a good or bad thing necessarily), but more an indication of style
  • Bottom third of league in Pressure %
  • Bottom third in Yards/Completion allowed
  • 5th in RZ %
 

BaseballJones

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Pats Pulpit had a breakdown of the Pats run defense v BAL here: https://www.patspulpit.com/2019/11/6/20949313/film-room-what-happened-new-engalnd-patriots-run-defense-baltimore-ravens

The interesting part is that when NE ran a A-gap blitzes but BAL was often able to beat them to the edge but when NE did not blitz, BAL was able to go up the middle. BAL's offense creates a numbers issue for defense.


No one runs man-to-man vs BAL (very often) because defenders' backs are to QB and Lamar runs wild.

My guess is that the best way to defend him is drop 7 or 8 into zone coverage and hope you get pressure from front 4 but that still means the LBs have to be perfect on play action.
I know. But you gotta try something different. Sitting back in zone isn’t the Pats’ strength. Hope the 5-7 guys they don’t have in coverage can contain Jackson. I dunno. It ain’t easy.
 

Kliq

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The main question is can Lamar Jackson hold up with the hits he takes running the ball so regularly. Even in a dominant win, he took some pretty good shots last night. The history of QBs who operate in an offense with lots of designed QB runs is not great in terms of longevity.

The closest comp in terms of dual-threat efficiency is RG3, who put up 8.1 YPA passing and 6.8 YPA rushing in his rookie year, running a very similar pistol-style, read-option heavy offense with a bruising running back (Alfred Morris had a 1600 yard season, averaging nearly 5 YPA). It was around the 120 carry mark that Griffin started to break down physically with a knee injury against a VERY physical Ravens defense and he was never the same after re-injuring it against the Seahawks in the playoffs.

I'd imagine that the 49ers defense will focus on hitting him early and often to wear him down.
This is something that I don't think is really talked about enough. Lamar has been amazing this season but he faces the same problem that every other running QB has faced in that he is a massive injury risk. Speaking of RG3, I wouldn't be shocked at all if he winds up starting a playoff game.
 

cornwalls@6

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I suspect Ernie Adams is working around the clock.
Was thinking the same thing, and to expand on it a little bit, this one of those circumstances where having someone like Adams around will hopefully be a significant advantage. While the coaching staff obviously is completely consumed with the real time process of preparing for weekly opponents, he could conceivably be doing a deep dive research project on similar offenses and players, be it college or pro, and trying find schemes and tactics that were successful against them, all with an eye on a possible January re-match. Also, seeing them once already, as bad as the outcome was, will hopefully be a benefit if they play again. It seems like there's just no way to replicate LJ's skill set in a practice situation. They now know, and have seen firsthand, just have fast and explosive he is, and how he combines that with increasingly very accurate passing. It's going to be a pretty heavy lift for whoever plays them in January, but I would like our chances to, at minimum, play them very tough and close, particularly if the game is in Foxborough.
 

steveluck7

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I actually don’t think he takes that many big hits.
I think it's less about big hits than the types of situations he'll find himself in. His ability to cutback so sharply could lead to a non contact injury. Him bouncing around the pocket with line man (both sides) falling around his knees and ankles could be problematic. In situations that other Qbs might take a sack, he might try (and be able) to extend the play. He operates in traffic quite a bit.
For me, it's also less about a catastrophic, RG III type injury, but more about a high ankle sprain or a knee ligament strain. His speed and quickness is such a weapon but, as well know, it's a thin margin with that type of skill. Jackson operating at 75% mobility makes them a lot easier to gameplan for
 

lexrageorge

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...

Lost in all this is BAL reliance on advanced analytics around win probability. They have a coaching edge on 95% of the league as well.
Fortunately the Pats coaching staff sits in that 5%, no matter how much people scoff at Belichick's comments regarding analytics.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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This is something that I don't think is really talked about enough. Lamar has been amazing this season but he faces the same problem that every other running QB has faced in that he is a massive injury risk. Speaking of RG3, I wouldn't be shocked at all if he winds up starting a playoff game.
Everyone's talking about it, particularly in the national media. Obviously, the ideal is Russell Wilson, who knows how to almost never take a hit. But Lamar still seems to have an ability to control how hard he gets hit - up to now - and frankly, Watson gets hit a lot harder on a regular basis because of how long he holds the ball. So does Mason Rudolph or any other QB with a terrible OL.

I don't know if Lamar running as much as he does makes him more injury prone than an average QB that drops back 40 times a game.
 

lexrageorge

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It's quite likely that Lamar Jackson isn't playing at 42. It's also possible that his game changes as he gets older; even the older guys are able to use their legs to scramble out of trouble, even when they run less than they used to (Roethlisberger, Rodgers). But in the short term, Jackson is who he is, and the remaining games are not enough of a sample size in which to expect him to get hurt any more than any other QB in the league. Basically, he's probably not any more likely to get hurt this season than the oldest QB in the league.

Anyway, I hate talking about injuries this way. Jackson is fun to watch, and sometimes as a fan you have to acknowledge that and hope your team can keep up, or tip your cap if not.
 

TrotWaddles

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There are people here way smarter than me on this but the first 3 seconds of almost every play look extremely similar to Air Force or Army. Until a team can put a hat on the QB and the dive option, I don’t think they are going to be stopped. Whoever mentioned singling up and bringing the extra body into run defense is probably right.
 

kelpapa

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Did anybody watch the Ravens/Steelers game in Week 5? What did the Steelers do to limit the Ravens to 3.5 yards per carry, not allow Lamar a rush longer than 9 yards and sacked him 5 times? Lamar also threw 3 of his 5 INTs in that game.
Going off snap counts, Mark Barron had his fewest snap count/snap % of the season (32 snaps, 40% - second lowest game 40 snaps, 60% - averaging 57 snaps/game this season) and Vince Williams had his highest snap count/snap% of the season (52 snaps, 65% - second highest game was high 38 snaps, 61% - averaging 29 snaps/game on the season).

Those two both play LB, but are similar sizes - Barron is listed at 6'2", 230 lbs. Williams is listed at 6'1", 233 lbs. I know Barron was originally a SS coming out of college, and is kind of a tweener. Going off the stats from Williams, he rushes the passer a lot more.
 

BaseballJones

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First game vs. Ravens....

Baltimore's first three possessions:
11 plays, 75 yards, TD, 6:47
11 plays, 54 yards, FG, 5:20
3 plays, 77 yards, TD, 1:35

So clearly the Pats hadn't figured them out, though I will say that the first TD should only have been a FG. That was when the Pats jumped offside on a stupid FG attempt and gave Baltimore a first down and goal, which they promptly converted. But still...the Ravens looked great.

Then the Pats' defense started adjusting and playing better.

Baltimore's next three possessions (not counting the one kneel down by Jackson to end the half):
3 plays, 4 yards, punt, 1:36
2 plays, 10 yards, fumble, 0:50
5 plays, 15 yards, punt, 1:58

Ok, so the Pats were back in it, playing good defense, stopping Baltimore cold. Looks like they had things figured out.

And then came Baltimore's two second-half possessions:
14 plays, 81 yards, TD, 8:09
14 plays, 68 yards, TD, 9:35

Now, I will say that in that second drive (14 plays for 68 yds), the Ravens converted three first downs. The first was converted thanks to a Patriots' offside penalty on Hightower after they had actually stopped the Ravens short of the line to gain. The second was converted on a short pass to Ingram that went for 18 yards as Roberts got lost in the wash. The third was converted thanks to an illegal use of hands to the face penalty on Jason McCourty when he hit him for a brief moment, against a receiver who wasn't even being glanced at by Jackson (he was looking the other way entirely). Jackson had thrown an incomplete pass on the play but they were bailed out on the call (which was a penalty, btw). They converted a fourth first down on third and goal from the one as Jackson ran it in. So the Pats had numerous chances to stop them, and actually did twice but for unnecessary penalties.

And on the first drive (14 plays for 81 yds), the Ravens converted a 3rd and 5 when Jackson threw his best pass of the night, a beautiful 18 yarder to Andrews for the first down in very tight coverage. They also converted a 4th and 4 on what was an egregious pick play when the receiver ran straight into the Pats defender some 4 yards downfield, freeing Snead up for the reception. That was the play that put the final nail in the coffin.

So the Pats definitely played them better defensively after the first quarter. That gives me hope for the next time they play.
 

minischwab

New Member
Aug 1, 2006
594
West Hartford, CT
Where are you getting your figures? Pf-ref has Baltimore at 3.19 also.
The Ravens have 111 offensive drives and have scored 351 Pts on those drives (351/111=3.16). They have 386 total pts this season, 35 of which have come from defensive scores (2 Int ret, 3 fum ret, plus the 5 PAT on those plays). Reference must be counting the fumble ret TD PAT as part of offensive drives scoring (354/111=3.19).
 

loshjott

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Dec 30, 2004
14,948
Silver Spring, MD
There are people here way smarter than me on this but the first 3 seconds of almost every play look extremely similar to Air Force or Army. Until a team can put a hat on the QB and the dive option, I don’t think they are going to be stopped. Whoever mentioned singling up and bringing the extra body into run defense is probably right.
If only we knew of a coach who grew up scouting Army and Air Force every year....
 

j44thor

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Aug 1, 2006
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The Ravens have 111 offensive drives and have scored 351 Pts on those drives (351/111=3.16). They have 386 total pts this season, 35 of which have come from defensive scores (2 Int ret, 3 fum ret, plus the 5 PAT on those plays). Reference must be counting the fumble ret TD PAT as part of offensive drives scoring (354/111=3.19).
I wonder what the points per drive is with just Jackson under center. They have had RGIII finish several games already.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Oct 20, 2015
33,263
One of the things that the Ravens have capitalized is that virtually every defense in the NFL has gone smaller and quicker to combat the spread offenses of the rest of the league. Teams may not have the personnel to play against the Ravens' power running game. It's a first mover advantage.
we were saying exactly this in last year's playoff run, that BB had adjusted to the rest of the league already. this is nothing new, the difference is our OL is underperforming and injured this year.
 

nattysez

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Sep 30, 2010
8,439
I think a dedicated Ravens thread discussing them as a juggernaut does a disservice to SF, but since we have BALT-SF on Sunday, that will be a great data point.
I think the Ravens are going to eat the Niners' lunch, but I've been incorrectly bearish on the Niners all year. My thoughts are:
(1) I think the Niners' D can be baited into overpursuit, which will create lanes for Lamar
(2) Jimmy is good for 1-2 INTs against a defense that pressures him
(3) The Seahawks beat the Niners despite trying to give the game away with turnovers. The Ravens are similar, but superior, to the Seahawks in almost every facet of the game.
 

minischwab

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Aug 1, 2006
594
West Hartford, CT
I wonder what the points per drive is with just Jackson under center. They have had RGIII finish several games already.
3.27 pts per drive. They have 17 Pts on RGIII's 9 drives this season. I think the 2007 Patriots had 14 Pts on 8 drives with backup QBs in the game, so Pats probably still above Ravens in that regard but I haven't done the full math.
 

KiltedFool

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Dec 22, 2005
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Going off snap counts, Mark Barron had his fewest snap count/snap % of the season (32 snaps, 40% - second lowest game 40 snaps, 60% - averaging 57 snaps/game this season) and Vince Williams had his highest snap count/snap% of the season (52 snaps, 65% - second highest game was high 38 snaps, 61% - averaging 29 snaps/game on the season).

Those two both play LB, but are similar sizes - Barron is listed at 6'2", 230 lbs. Williams is listed at 6'1", 233 lbs. I know Barron was originally a SS coming out of college, and is kind of a tweener. Going off the stats from Williams, he rushes the passer a lot more.
Barron is more of a dimebacker, Williams is a run stopping thumper who is exposed in coverage. They may be listed on paper as similar size I doubt they are in reality, their roles are significantly different. The Steelers D has been trending toward legit over the course of the season, as Devin Bush comes up to speed and with the addition of Fitzpatrick and to a lesser extent Nelson.
 

E5 Yaz

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I think the safe money is on neither the Ravens or Patriots running the table. The question is, will the Patriots lose one more game than the Ravens the rest of the season?
 

kelpapa

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Feb 15, 2010
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Barron is more of a dimebacker, Williams is a run stopping thumper who is exposed in coverage. They may be listed on paper as similar size I doubt they are in reality, their roles are significantly different. The Steelers D has been trending toward legit over the course of the season, as Devin Bush comes up to speed and with the addition of Fitzpatrick and to a lesser extent Nelson.
I was hoping a Steelers' fan would clarify this. Thanks.