2019 TB12: Everyday Is Like Sunday

Byrdbrain

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Dan Orlovsky does a great breakdown of the throw to Myers at the corner of the endzone where he shows similar issues to what Baldy shows.
I'd post it but my work firewall won't let twitter through, it is worth seeking out.
 

Red Averages

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Dan Orlovsky does a great breakdown of the throw to Myers at the corner of the endzone where he shows similar issues to what Baldy shows.
I'd post it but my work firewall won't let twitter through, it is worth seeking out.
Here's the link:

View: https://twitter.com/danorlovsky7/status/1201942099299635201


Worth mentioning that the Meyers play was 2nd and goal from the 5 on the first drive. The Dorsett play was 3rd and goal. First drive of the game and they have these issues.

Drive 2 was the Harry induced INT.

Drive 3 was a punt.

Drive 4 was the Dorsett missed hand signal.

Really great analysis to show why Brady is getting so frustrated. It's not just the defense doing a good job, they are killing themselves with mistakes. Meyers, Dorsett, Harry... across the board. I really hope these guys are staying after practice to get more work in on timing and routes. It seems fixable if they can just make the adjustments.
 

NickEsasky

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That's some great analysis right there, the stutter cost them a TD, just keep running your route and it's an easy TD.
Did Dorsett stutter when Brady felt some backside pressure and got off his mark? Brady moved in the pocket there sensing the DE curling around his Tackle maybe that's why Dorsett hesitated. Not posting this as a knock on Brady, but just a way that on any play there isn't just one guy who can change how a play goes.
 

NomarsFool

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I have a ton of faith in this coaching staff. My expectation was that with the bye week, they were going to have two weeks of practice and come out and demolish the Eagles. That didn't happen. The Cowboys game was a mess because of the weather. But, I hoped that against the Texans, on turf, most of the personnel back, terrible defense, we'd start to see some real offense. Didn't happen again. Again, lots of faith in the coaches, but it's getting a bit concerning the continued offensive blahs.
 

Marciano490

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Dorsett has had a couple of concussions lately right? Maybe it's affecting him more than we realize.
Maybe I need to reread the research, but I feel like the pendulum has swung too far on this issue to the point people are just blaming things on concussions.
 

tims4wins

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I have a ton of faith in this coaching staff. My expectation was that with the bye week, they were going to have two weeks of practice and come out and demolish the Eagles. That didn't happen. The Cowboys game was a mess because of the weather. But, I hoped that against the Texans, on turf, most of the personnel back, terrible defense, we'd start to see some real offense. Didn't happen again. Again, lots of faith in the coaches, but it's getting a bit concerning the continued offensive blahs.
Remember the Eagles game had some weather issues too, and we don’t know how much illness played a factor on Sunday (Cannon played like crap again). That said at some point the excuses have to stop and they have to go out and execute and score upper 20s or whatever.
 

NomarsFool

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Agreed. We also need to remember that other teams have injuries, get the flu, etc., too. It's not like every other football team has had everything go their way.
 

BaseballJones

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Remember the Eagles game had some weather issues too, and we don’t know how much illness played a factor on Sunday (Cannon played like crap again). That said at some point the excuses have to stop and they have to go out and execute and score upper 20s or whatever.
The flu thing is real. But Seattle was dealing with a major flu issue and beat Minnesota last night so....
 

Super Nomario

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Saints Rest

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Who will be available FA targets to become TB targets for the Pats next year? If there isn't a clear path in TB's mind to finding an upgraded WR1 or TE1, then he may decide his time in NE is over. That said, I think it's more likely he retires than that he goes to another team. I'd say something like 80/20.

EDIT:
Some possible target targets:
WR:
  • Amari Cooper (doesn't pass the "do well against the Pats, gain BB's interest" test)
  • AJ Green
TE:
  • Hunter Henry
  • Austin Hooper
 

Mystic Merlin

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It’s possible, but 13M in dead cap is a steep price to pay to hand the keys over to, presumably, Jarrett Stidham.

When they restructured the deal in August, it gave them relief under the cap this year and it felt like it made it harder/less likely for the Pats to walk away (if more likely for Tom to walk away).

Obviously if he craters enough through the end of the year you have to reassess based on new information but this is not ‘inevitable’ given that there’s four plus games of data to be gathered, and making the move to Stidham is no slam dunk. If Brady is the clear better option for next season, they should pay for it.

As for Curran’s piece, what a mess. And I’m not referring to the soundness of his observations when read separately, as he’s not staking out ridiculous terrain. But the thing reads like he wrote several different paragraphs and just threw them together. And ending on an assertion that he’s been ‘under-indulged’ - an interesting but very tricky angle that merits a lot more words than he devotes to it - was a questionable finishing touch. E.g. what does it mean to indulge him, what do we think Tom wants that he isn’t getting, why should he be indulged, would a team who would indulge him actually be a team more likely to win, etc. Work with me, Tom.
 

Red Averages

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I think Gronk comes back next year and it's Brady/Gronk's last year. Patriots add another weapon or two on offense and are on the cusp of another Super Bowl championship, when I suddenly wake up from this dream to sorrow realization that it was all a dream.
 

Super Nomario

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It’s possible, but 13M in dead cap is a steep price to pay to hand the keys over to, presumably, Jarrett Stidham.

When they restructured the deal in August, it gave them relief under the cap this year and it felt like it made it harder/less likely for the Pats to walk away (if more likely for Tom to walk away).
The $13.5 MM is a sunk cost. They're paying it either way. If they work out a deal, they can spread it out over two years, but Brady's getting that money. Any new deal will be on top of that.

Obviously if he craters enough through the end of the year you have to reassess based on new information but this is not ‘inevitable’ given that there’s four plus games of data to be gathered, and making the move to Stidham is no slam dunk. If Brady is the clear better option for next season, they should pay for it.
Yeah, and I still think that's the most likely outcome, probably by a large margin.
 

BaseballJones

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Honest question: Since when should we believe that money is the primary factor for Brady in making a career football decision? I think the track record is Brady wanting a respectable amount of money while the rest of what he could have earned goes towards improving the team. The Pats DID try that with Brown, and he loved it. Then Brown sent those emails that threatened the woman and the kid, and got sent packing, and there was no money left. They were able to squeeze in Sanu, but otherwise, that's it. It's not like they didn't try to upgrade.
 

[icon]

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I don't see ANY way Tom wants to go "Start over" with a new staff/system for what would be his final year or maybe two.

Looking at motivations:
Money:
Nonexistent as a motivating factor. He doesn't need it, and it's likely on the table in New England
Winning: As long as Bill has the keys in New England, there are few if any teams that have better odds to win next year, ESPECIALLY not teams where he'd walk in as a starting QB for 1-2 years.
Personal Clash: I see Tom frustrated, but I'm not aware of any major chemistry issues in New England that would warrant Tom throwing it all away to finish his career with what is likely a worse chance at winning.

IMO the only way Tom is gone is if NE doesn't offer him a contract next year for some insane reason. His legacy should begin and end in New England.
 

E5 Yaz

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The smart money is still on getting something done with Brady.
Exactly and, frankly, you have to think about it from the standpoint of other teams. What team would want/need a 43 year old quarterback coming off a questionable season? What team is close enough to winning, could upgrade at QB ... and have an organization/coach secure enough to bring in Brady?
 

steveluck7

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Exactly and, frankly, you have to think about it from the standpoint of other teams. What team would want/need a 43 year old quarterback coming off a questionable season? What team is close enough to winning, could upgrade at QB ... and have an organization/coach secure enough to bring in Brady?
This is the thought I've had all along. I'm not sure the realistic market for Brady is as large as the hot-takers think it is
 

Willie Clay's Big Play

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Da bears.

I joke. I like Curran, but he seems to be suffering from the holiday hangover like the rest of us. I expected way more hype about the Chiefs game than this tired take from him.
 

axx

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Exactly and, frankly, you have to think about it from the standpoint of other teams. What team would want/need a 43 year old quarterback coming off a questionable season? What team is close enough to winning, could upgrade at QB ... and have an organization/coach secure enough to bring in Brady?
Which I think retirement is a real possibility.

I don't see ANY way Tom wants to go "Start over" with a new staff/system for what would be his final year or maybe two.
I could see his ego thinking it's not him but the receivers/personnel.

My opinion is that it could go in any direction really. I do think he will test the market.
 

Ed Hillel

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It was sarcasm, though I do also think this is his last season here for other reasons.
 

InstaFace

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I would love to know. Any reasonable take that doesn't come from either Felger or Mazz would be good to hear.
He's old, getting beat up this season more than the previous 5 combined, and has one offensive weapon to speak of. This year has to be a lot less fun than the previous ones. If he was on a team that could count on Gronk and Andrews and good OL play for the next 5 years, and maybe have kept Antonio Brown (or a near-equivalent who was less crazy) around, then I'd feel much more confident that he's going to stay. At this point I think he's emotionally anchored to the 45-years-old thing and is likely to stay. But after this season, and a likely exit in the AFC playoffs, it wouldn't shock me if he looks back on it in March and decides it's just not fun enough to put himself through that anymore. He's reportedly pissed at Kraft for the AB thing (I actually believe these reports, though they likely overstate the extent of it). But more significantly: His oldest son John is going to be 12, his oldest daughter Vivian is going to be 8, and for 8 months of each year he sees them 1 day a week at most.

I don't expect him to retire. But neither would I be shocked.
 

Jimbodandy

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I'm still hearing 98.5 in a lot of that post, just spoken by a much smarter and more eloquent person.

But you do raise a good point. Brady has had seasons where the team around him was kind of garbage. He has had some poor OL play, some JAG receivers, porous defenses, etc., just like any long-tenured QB. Perhaps more than some, since guys like Peyton and Marino generally had decent money allocated to their side of the ball. But tangent aside, he has been in this position before. BUT he wasn't 42. Being 42 and dealing with rookie and JAG receivers and a shit OL is different. And for that reason, I concur that the chance of retirement after this year is north of zero.
 

Van Everyman

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I'm still hearing 98.5 in a lot of that post, just spoken by a much smarter and more eloquent person.

But you do raise a good point. Brady has had seasons where the team around him was kind of garbage. He has had some poor OL play, some JAG receivers, porous defenses, etc., just like any long-tenured QB. Perhaps more than some, since guys like Peyton and Marino generally had decent money allocated to their side of the ball. But tangent aside, he has been in this position before. BUT he wasn't 42. Being 42 and dealing with rookie and JAG receivers and a shit OL is different. And for that reason, I concur that the chance of retirement after this year is north of zero.
The thing is, over the course of his 20 year career, Brady has had MULTIPLE teams with not-very-good-to-garbage defenses -- the early 2010s were generally bad. 2010 and 2011 (411 YPG, woof) were some of the worst defenses in the league. 2017 (4th most YPG) was supposed to be great and was terrible. Going back further, 2002 was the year of Steve Martin and Monty Beisel. 2006 had a bunch of injuries and was bad. 2009 had Adalius Thomas, was old and got pushed around by Ray Rice.

The years where their defenses were good? 2001, 2003, 2004, 2007, 2014, 2016, 2018. Which is to say, they have been competitive no matter the balance between offense and defense, but have won Super Bowls when their defense has been good-to-great. Granted, their offense has generally been better than this year's (2004 had a top 10 offense actually) -- but not always.

This year feels like 2013 and 2015 to me: years in which injuries on the offensive side of the ball have capped their potential. But their defense gives reason to believe that they have some potential in them yet.
 

BigJimEd

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He's reportedly pissed at Kraft for the AB thing (I actually believe these reports, though they likely overstate the extent of it).
Are there any actual reports? I only remember some speculation but don't think I've seen any actual reports. Well other than those pointing to the speculation.
 

InstaFace

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yeah I think the day afterwards there was a Reiss report. You'd have to go back through the AB-is-cut thread to dig 'em up. It's possible I'm wrong. Regardless, I think that's one of the lesser reasons, as its impact is fairly limited to the present year. Bill has almost no dry powder for cap room, Tom at this point has a fairly good idea of how the rookies and sophomores are shaking out, after 20 years in the league I'd imagine #12 can readily see what the next few years are likely to be, and if he decides that that's not a top contender - well, it might shake his commitment to remaining.

I don't for a second buy into any of the nonsense around "he'll go to another team for a year or two to prove he can do it without BB!". Just like how Gronk didn't want to be catching passes from anyone except Brady, I don't think Brady wants to be on a team that's not coached or put together by Belichick. Not only is it all he knows, he knows the difference it makes literally better than anyone.
 

joe dokes

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The thing is, over the course of his 20 year career, Brady has had MULTIPLE teams with not-very-good-to-garbage defenses -- the early 2010s were generally bad. 2010 and 2011 (411 YPG, woof) were some of the worst defenses in the league. 2017 (4th most YPG) was supposed to be great and was terrible. Going back further, 2002 was the year of Steve Martin and Monty Beisel. 2006 had a bunch of injuries and was bad. 2009 had Adalius Thomas, was old and got pushed around by Ray Rice.

The years where their defenses were good? 2001, 2003, 2004, 2007, 2014, 2016, 2018. Which is to say, they have been competitive no matter the balance between offense and defense, but have won Super Bowls when their defense has been good-to-great. Granted, their offense has generally been better than this year's (2004 had a top 10 offense actually) -- but not always.

This year feels like 2013 and 2015 to me: years in which injuries on the offensive side of the ball have capped their potential. But their defense gives reason to believe that they have some potential in them yet.
EVERY year has some deficiency that has to be made up elsewhere in order to succeed. That's the price to be paid for simultaneously being a SB contender every single year without fail and having no years of true salary-cap hell (being forced to jettison good players solely for cap reasons) or mediocrity (or worse).
 

BaseballJones

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EVERY year has some deficiency that has to be made up elsewhere in order to succeed. That's the price to be paid for simultaneously being a SB contender every single year without fail and having no years of true salary-cap hell (being forced to jettison good players solely for cap reasons) or mediocrity (or worse).
So back to a question I've posed before: If you're Brady, would you rather have elite offensive weapons around you but a middling defense, or a stud defense and middling offensive weapons? If I'm Brady, I'd rather have the defense.
 

johnmd20

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So back to a question I've posed before: If you're Brady, would you rather have elite offensive weapons around you but a middling defense, or a stud defense and middling offensive weapons? If I'm Brady, I'd rather have the defense.
Yeah, no. Doesn't seem that way at all, he's visibly frustrated while he's playing.
 

DJnVa

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So back to a question I've posed before: If you're Brady, would you rather have elite offensive weapons around you but a middling defense, or a stud defense and middling offensive weapons? If I'm Brady, I'd rather have the defense.
Why would any QB, prefer elite defense and middling offensive weapons over the opposite?
 

Salem's Lot

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Whether or not Brady plays or retires next year depends on how hurt that elbow is. If it’s surgical I think he’s going to retire, and I wouldn’t blame him at all.
 

CantKeepmedown

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So back to a question I've posed before: If you're Brady, would you rather have elite offensive weapons around you but a middling defense, or a stud defense and middling offensive weapons? If I'm Brady, I'd rather have the defense.
Is your thought process that Brady thinks that with even a middling offense, he can do enough to win (with a stud defense)? Because like John said, he's looked openly frustrated with the weapons this year. Whether it be the line or the receivers. He's very complimentary of the defense, but knows at some point, against elite offenses, he's going to need to put up more points.
 

tims4wins

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The offense the last month hasn’t been middling it has been bad. And I would place 70% or more on the O line honestly. It’s no one’s fault. Mason isn’t playing well possibly injured. Ditto Cannon. Playing with 3rd string center. Wynn missed 10 weeks. Thuney is the only bright spot. It is what it is.
 

BaseballJones

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To my question above in post #542....I've looked at the 2001-2018 seasons (minus 2008 because no Brady) and ranked them by defensive seasons and offensive seasons.

- 4 times in that period they were ranked #1 or #2 in points allowed (03, 16, 06, 04). Of those 4 seasons, they won 3 Super Bowls.
- 11 times in that period they were ranked #8 or better in points allowed (03, 16, 06, 04, 07, 09, 17, 01, 18, 14, 10). Of those 11 seasons, they won 6 Super Bowls and went to 8 Super Bowls.

However...

- 4 times in that period they were ranked #1 or #2 in points scored (07, 12, 10, 17). Of those 4 seasons, they won 0 Super Bowls.
- 8 times in that period they were ranked #1-#3 in points scored (07, 12, 10, 17, 11, 16, 15, 13). Of those 8 seasons, they won 1 Super Bowl.

They did win 3 Super Bowls with the #4 ranked scoring offense (04, 14, 18). So it's not like it's BAD to have an elite offense. But I think if you had to choose, you'd rather have the elite defense and let Brady, BB, and McDaniels figure out the offense, rather than have an elite offense and try to figure it out on defense.
 

BaseballJones

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Yeah, no. Doesn't seem that way at all, he's visibly frustrated while he's playing.
Did you see him hang his head at the end of SB 49 when the Seahawks were driving? He was desperate for a stop that he didn't think was coming. When it did, he was stunned (as were we all).

He's frustrated this year because, as others have pointed out, the offense lately hasn't been "middling". It's been BAD. And it's his job as QB to run the offense, so of course it's going to be more frustrating for him. He can't do anything about the defense. He CAN do something about the offense, and it isn't happening.

But compare SB 52 and 53. Elite offensive play in SB 52, scored a ton of points, set the record for most yards gained in a SB by a mile. Defense couldn't get ANY stops at all and they lose. Pretty bad offensive play in SB 53, only managed 13 points, but the defense was incredible and they win a low scoring game.

Obviously one was a win and one was a loss, so clearly he'd rather have the win than the loss. Which is...my point. At the end of the day, Brady would (I would think) rather win the SB even if it's mainly thanks to the defense, than have the offense (and Brady) perform at a high level and lose.

So my question really is: Which setup gives them the best chance to WIN (which, presumably, is what will make Brady most happy)? I contend that a great defense and middling offense because of the presence of BB, McD, and TB...they can patch together what they need on offense.
 

InstaFace

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So my question really is: Which setup gives them the best chance to WIN (which, presumably, is what will make Brady most happy)? I contend that a great defense and middling offense because of the presence of BB, McD, and TB...they can patch together what they need on offense.
I thought so too, until the last couple of weeks, now I'm not so sure. I think a big part of "patching it together" may have been having Gronk on the roster.